Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma after curative treatment

Establishment and validation of an ultrasound-based nomogram with risk stratification for short disease-free survival in breast cancer

PURPOSE

This retrospective study aimed to develop and validate an Ultrasound (US)-based nomogram to predict short disease-free survival (short-DFS, less than 120 months DFS) in breast cancer (BC).

METHODS

Nomogram was established based on a training data of 311 BC patients by multivariable logistic regression, and were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Risk stratification was performed by X-tile. An independent testing data of 200 patients with BC was used for external validation.

RESULTS

Nine predictors including three US features and six clinical parameters were screened into the nomogram by Lasso (log λ = -3.594) in training data. Better performance was obtained in the training data (C-index: 0.942) and testing data (C-index: 0.914). Calibration analysis indicated optimal agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations (p = 0.67). Decision curve analysis showed a great clinical benefit (Youden index: 0.634). Three risk levels are low-risk (<184.0), moderate-risk (184.0-345.3) and high-risk (>345.3). Our nomograms had larger area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves compared with Magee Equation and Nottingham Prognostic models (0.942 vs. 0.824, 0.790).

CONCLUSION

The US-based nomogram and the practical score system facilitate individualized prediction of short-DFS to optimize clinical decisions and improve prognosis in patients with BC.

MRI-identified multidimensional nodal features predict survival and concurrent chemotherapy benefit for stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Reliable predictors are urgently needed to identify stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients who could benefit from concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). We aimed to develop a nomogram integrating MRI-identified multidimensional features of lymph nodes to predict survival and assist the decision-making of CCRT for stage II NPC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 242 stage II NPC patients treated from January 2007 to December 2017. Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint. Performance of nomogram was evaluated using calibration curves, Harrell Concordance Index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and decision curves analysis (DCA) and was compared with TNM staging. According to the individualized nomogram score, patients were classified into two risk cohorts and therapeutic efficacy of CCRT were evaluated in each cohort.

RESULTS

Three independent prognostic factors for OS: age, number and location of positive lymph nodes were included into the final nomogram. T stage was also incorporated due to its importance in clinical decision-making. Calibration plots demonstrated a good match between the predicted and our observed OS rates. C-index for nomogram was 0.726 compared with 0.537 for TNM staging (p < 0.001). DCAs confirmed the superior clinical utility of nomograms compared with TNM staging. CCRT compared to intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) delivered OS benefit to patients in the high-risk group (5-year: 89.9% vs. 72.1%; 10-year: 72.5% vs. 34.2%, p = 0.011), but not in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

This lymph node features-based nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination and predictive accuracy for stage II patients and could identify patients who can benefit from CCRT.

Survival among subgroups of patients with stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma

To assess survival between subgroups (T1N1, T2N0, and T2N1) of patients with stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This retrospective cohort study evaluated pathologically confirmed stage II NPC patients from The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2016. The included patients were divided into three subgroups: T1N1, T2N0, and T2N1. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method among the three subgroups. This study investigated 836 patients: 383 (45.8%) patients were in the T1N1 subgroup, 175 (20.9%) patients were in the T2N0 subgroup, and 278 (33.3%) patients were in the T2N1 subgroup. The 5-year OS (75.7%, 68.6%, and 75.7%) and CSS (85.3%, 83.4%, and 84.5%) were similar among the T1N1, T2N0, and T2N1 subgroups. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses revealed that the subgroup (T1N1, T2N0, and T2N1) of stage II NPC was not an independent prognostic factor for OS or CSS. Survival was comparable among subgroups (T1N1, T2N0, and T2N1) of stage II NPC patients. However, patients with T1N1, T2N0, and T2N1 stage disease who receive different treatments might have different prognoses.

Development of a Radiotherapy Localisation Computed Tomography-Based Radiomic Model for Predicting Survival in Patients With Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Treated With Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Following Induction Chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Our purpose is to develop a model combining radiomic features of radiotherapy localisation computed tomography and clinical characteristics that can be used to estimate overall survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy following induction chemotherapy.

METHODS

We recruited 145 patients with pathologically confirmed nasopharyngeal carcinoma between February 2012 and April 2015. In total, 851 radiomic features were extracted from radiotherapy localisation computed tomography images for the gross tumour volume of the nasopharynx and the gross tumour volume of neck metastatic lymph nodes. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm was applied to select radiomics features, build the model and calculate the Rad-score. The patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on their Rad-scores. A nomogram for estimating overall survival based on both radiomic and clinical features was generated using multivariate Cox regression hazard models. Prediction reliability was evaluated using Harrell's concordance index.

RESULTS

In total, seven radiomic features and one clinical characteristic were extracted for survival analysis, and the combination of radiomic and clinical features was a better predictor of overall survival (concordance index = .849 [confidence interval: .782-.916]) than radiomic features (concordance index = .793 [confidence interval: .697-.890]) or clinical characteristics (concordance index = .661 [confidence interval: .673-.849]) alone.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that a nomogram combining radiomic features of radiotherapy localisation computed tomography and clinical characteristics can predict overall survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy following induction chemotherapy more effectively than radiomic features or clinical characteristics alone.

Explore the Usefulness of Concurrent Chemotherapy in Stage II Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study

Objective: This study aims to compare the treatment outcomes of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) versus radiotherapy (RT) alone in stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. Methods: We retrospectively collected 601 stage II NPC patients treated in two hospitals between June 2003 to June 2016. All patients were divided into the CCRT group (n = 255) and the RT group (n = 346). Overall survival (OS), locoregional failure-free survival (LRFFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the groups. The Cox-regression hazards model was performed to determine potential prognostic factors. Results: The median follow-up was 99 months. No significant difference was found in locoregional recurrence, distant metastasis, disease progression, and death between the two groups (all p > 0.05). In univariate analysis, the 5-years OS, PFS, LRFFS, and DMFS had no significant differences between the CCRT and RT groups (all p > 0.05). Two-dimensional radiotherapy (2DRT) sub-analysis showed that CCRT remarkably increased DMFS, PFS, and OS rates (all p < 0.05) but not LRFFS (p = 0.258) compared with RT alone. While intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) sub-analysis showed that the prognosis of the two groups had no significant differences (all p > 0.05). In multivariate analyses, age was significantly and inversely related to OS, PFS, LRFFS, and DMFS. IMRT was an independent favorable factor for improving LRFFS, PFS, and OS. Concurrent chemotherapy was an independent protective factor for DMFS. Conclusion: In the context of 2DRT, it is definite that concurrent chemotherapy provides survival benefits for patients with stage II NPC. While in the IMRT era, the impact of chemotherapy on survival in patients with stage II NPC is weakened. Prospective randomized controlled studies are required to confirm these results.

External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Concurrent Chemoradiation for Stage II Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Simple Summary

The optimal treatment strategy (concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) vs. radiotherapy alone) for stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era is controversial across guidelines. A nomogram by Sun et al. was published to predict the overall survival (OS) benefit of CCRT based on a patient’s clinical parameters. Using the cohort from the Hong Kong NPC1301 study, we evaluated the external validity of the nomogram and the associations between the proposed clinical factors and OS among stage II NPC patients. Use of CCRT was an insignificant predictor for OS. The nomogram lacked the predictive accuracy and should be interpreted with caution.

Abstract

A nomogram was recently published by Sun et al. to predict overall survival (OS) and the additional benefit of concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) vs. radiotherapy (RT) alone, in stage II NPC treated with conventional RT. We aimed to assess the predictors of OS and to externally validate the nomogram in the IMRT era. We analyzed stage II NPC patients treated with definitive RT alone or CCRT between 2001 and 2011 under the territory-wide Hong Kong NPC Study Group 1301 study. Clinical parameters were studied using the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate OS. The nomogram by Sun et al. was applied with 1000 times bootstrap resampling to calculate the concordance index, and we compared the nomogram predicted and observed 5-year OS. There were 482 patients included. The 5-year OS was 89.0%. In the multivariable analysis, an age > 45 years was the only significant predictor of OS (HR, 1.98; 95%CI, 1.15–3.44). Other clinical parameters were insignificant, including the use of CCRT (HR, 0.99; 95%CI, 0.62–1.58). The nomogram yielded a concordance index of 0.55 (95% CI, 0.49–0.62) which lacked clinically meaningful discriminative power. The nomogram proposed by Sun et al. should be interpreted with caution when applied to stage II NPC patients in the IMRT era. The benefit of CCRT remained controversial.

A Prospective 10-Year Observational Study of Reduction of Radiation Therapy Clinical Target Volume and Dose in Early-Stage Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Current guideline recommends a uniform method of delineation of subclinical disease within the primary clinical target volume (CTVp) for all stages of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We performed a prospective observational study to investigate the outcomes with a reduced CTVp and radiation dose for early-stage NPC.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Patients with newly diagnosed, biopsy-proven World Health Organization type II-III and American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control sixth edition stage T1-2N0-1 disease were enrolled. All patients were treated with intensity modulated radiation therapy alone. We categorized CTVp into CTVp1 (high risk) and CTVp2 (low risk). CTVp1 comprised of gross tumor (on magnetic resonance imaging or contrast-enhanced computed tomography) plus a 5-mm margin (3-mm posteriorly) and was prescribed to 60 Gy in 30 fractions (fr). CTVp2 was generated from CTVp1 plus a 5-mm margin (3 mm posteriorly), excluding the maxillary and cavernous sinuses, and was prescribed to 54 Gy in 30 fr. The prescribed doses to the primary and nodal gross tumor volume (GTVp and GTVn) were 68 Gy in 30 fr and 60 to 66 Gy in 30 fr, respectively. Primary endpoint was local recurrence-free survival. This study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT03839602.

RESULTS

From May 2001 to August 2006, 103 patients were recruited and completed IMRT. With a median follow-up of 15.2 years (range, 2.1-18.1 years), only 1 patient had local failure. Ten-year local recurrence-free survival, regional recurrence-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and overall survival were 90.3%, 88.3%, 90.3%, and 91.2%, respectively. Among late IMRT-related adverse events, we recorded 2 patients with G1 cranial nerve injury, 3 patients with G3 hearing loss, and 3 patients with G3 subcutaneous fibrosis. No patients had temporal lobe necrosis, brain stem injury, or trismus.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreased CTV margins and radiation doses can achieve long-term tumor control with mild late toxicities for patients with early-stage NPC.

Albumin-bilirubin grade-based nomogram of the BCLC system for personalized prognostic prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The prognostic accuracy of individual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patient in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage is unclear. We aimed to develop and validate an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram of BCLC to estimate survival for individual HCC patient.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2016, 3690 patients with newly diagnosed HCC were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly split into derivation and validation cohort by 1:1 ratio. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to generate the nomogram from tumour burden, ALBI grade and performance status (PS). The concordance index and calibration plot were determined to evaluate the performance of this nomogram.

RESULTS

Beta coefficients from the Cox model were used to assign nomogram points to different degrees of tumour burden, ALBI grade and PS. The scores of the nomogram ranged from 0 to 24, and were used to predict 3- and 5-year patient survival. The concordance index of this nomogram was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71-0.81) in the derivation cohort and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.81) in the validation cohort. The calibration plots to predict both 3- and 5-year survival rate well matched with the 45-degree ideal line for both cohorts, except for ALBI-based BCLC stage 0 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed ALBI-based nomogram of BCLC system is a simple and feasible strategy in the precision medicine era. Our data indicate it is a straightforward and user-friendly prognostic tool to estimate the survival of individual HCC patient except for very early stage patients.