Development of the ProPal-COPD tool to identify patients with COPD for proactive palliative care

Prognostic models and factors identifying end-of-life in non-cancer chronic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Precise prognostic information, if available, is very helpful for guiding treatment decisions and resource allocation in patients with non-cancer non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to systematically review the existing evidence, examining prognostic models and factors for identifying end-of-life non-cancer NCD patients.

METHODS

Electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, PsychINFO and other sources, were searched from the inception of these databases up until June 2023. Studies published in English with findings mentioning prognostic models or factors related to identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCD patients were included. The quality of studies was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool.

RESULTS

The analysis included data from 41 studies, with 16 focusing on chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), 10 on dementia, 6 on heart failure and 9 on mixed NCDs. Traditional statistical modelling was predominantly used for the identified prognostic models. Common predictors in COPD models included dyspnoea, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, functional status, exacerbation history and body mass index. Models for dementia and heart failure frequently included comorbidity, age, gender, blood tests and nutritional status. Similarly, mixed NCD models commonly included functional status, age, dyspnoea, the presence of skin pressure ulcers, oral intake and level of consciousness. The identified prognostic models exhibited varying predictive accuracy, with the majority demonstrating weak to moderate discriminatory performance (area under the curve: 0.5-0.8). Additionally, most of these models lacked independent external validation, and only a few underwent internal validation.

CONCLUSION

Our review summarised the most relevant predictors for identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCDs. However, the predictive accuracy of identified models was generally inconsistent and low, and lacked external validation. Although efforts to improve these prognostic models should continue, clinicians should recognise the possibility that disease heterogeneity may limit the utility of these models for individual prognostication; they may be more useful for population level health planning.

Should the Surprise Question be Used as a Prognostic Tool for People With Life-limiting Illnesses?

The surprise question screening tool ("Would I be surprised if this person died within the next 12 months?") was initially developed to identify possible palliative care needs. One controversial topic regarding the surprise question is whether it should be used as a prognostic tool (predicting survival) for patients with life-limiting illnesses. In this "Controversies in Palliative Care" article, three groups of expert clinicians independently answered this question. All experts provide an overview of current literature, practical advice, and opportunities for future research. All experts reported on the inconsistency of the prognostic capabilities of the surprise question. Two of the three expert groups felt that the surprise question should not be used as a prognostic tool due to these inconsistencies. The third expert group felt that the surprise question should be used as a prognostic tool, particularly for shorter time frames. The experts all highlighted that the original rationale for the surprise question was to trigger a further conversation about future treatment and a potential shift in the focus of the care, identifying patients who many benefit from specialist palliative care or advance care planning; however, many clinicians find this discussion a difficult one to initiate. The experts agreed that the benefit of the surprise question comes from its simplicity: a one-question tool that requires no specific information about the patient's condition. More research is needed to better support the application of this tool in routine practice, particularly in noncancer populations.

Advance Care Planning in the Netherlands

The Dutch health care system fosters a strong public health sector offering accessible generalist care including generalist palliative care. General practitioners are well positioned to conduct ACP, for example, to continue or initiate conversations after hospitalization. However, research shows that ACP conversations are often ad hoc and in frail patients, ACP is often only initiated when admitted to a nursing home by elderly care physicians who are on the staff. Tools that raise awareness of triggers to initiate ACP, screening tools, information brochures, checklists and training have been developed and implemented with funding by national programs which currently focus on implementation projects rather than or in addition to, research. The programs commonly require educational deliverables, patient and public involvement and addressing diversity in patient groups. A major challenge is how to implement ACP systematically and continuously across sectors and disciplines in a way that supports a proactive yet person-centered approach rather than an approach with an exclusive focus on medical procedures. Digital solutions can support continuity of care and communication about care plans. Solutions should fit a culture that prefers trust-based, informal deliberative approaches. This may be supported by involving disciplines other than medicine, such as nursing and spiritual caregiving, and public health approaches.

A pooled analysis of the risk prediction models for mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

OBJECTIVE

The prognosis for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is not optimistic, and severe AECOPD leads to an increased risk of mortality. Prediction models help distinguish between high- and low-risk groups. At present, many prediction models have been established and validated, which need to be systematically reviewed to screen out more suitable models that can be used in the clinic and provide evidence for future research.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases for studies on risk models for AECOPD mortality from their inception to 10 April 2022. The risk of bias was assessed using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Stata software (version 16) was used to synthesize the C-statistics for each model.

RESULTS

A total of 37 studies were included. The development of risk prediction models for mortality in patients with AECOPD was described in 26 articles, in which the most common predictors were age (n = 17), dyspnea grade (n = 11), altered mental status (n = 8), pneumonia (n = 6) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN, n = 6). The remaining 11 articles only externally validated existing models. All 37 studies were evaluated at a high risk of bias using PROBAST. We performed a meta-analysis of five models included in 15 studies. DECAF (dyspnoea, eosinopenia, consolidation, acidemia and atrial fibrillation) performed well in predicting in-hospital death [C-statistic = 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 0.98] and 90-day death [C-statistic = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.82] and CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age) performed well in predicting 30-day death [C-statistic = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.77].

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides information on the characteristics, performance and risk of bias of a risk model for AECOPD mortality. This pooled analysis of the present study suggests that the DECAF performs well in predicting in-hospital and 90-day deaths. Yet, external validation in different populations is still needed to prove this performance.

The effect of an integrated palliative care intervention on quality of life and acute healthcare use in patients with COPD: Results of the COMPASSION cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

COPD causes high morbidity and mortality, emphasizing the need for palliative care.

AIM

To assess the effectiveness of palliative care in patients with COPD.

DESIGN

Cluster randomized controlled trial (COMPASSION study; Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NL7644, 07-04-2019). Healthcare providers within the intervention group were trained to implement palliative care components into routine COPD care. Patients completed questionnaires at baseline, after 3 and 6 months; medical records were assessed after 12 months. The primary outcome was quality of life (FACIT-Pal). Secondary outcomes were anxiety, depression, spiritual well-being, satisfaction with care, acute healthcare use, documentation of life-sustaining treatment preferences and place of death. Generalized linear mixed modelling was used for analyses.

SETTING

Eight hospital regions in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients hospitalized for an acute exacerbation of COPD and positive ProPal-COPD score.

RESULTS

Of 222 patients included, 106 responded to the questionnaire at 6 months. Thirty-six of 98 intervention patients (36.7%) received the intervention. Intention-to-treat-analysis showed no effect on the primary outcome (adjusted difference: 1.09; 95% confidence interval: -5.44 to 7.60). In the intervention group, fewer intensive care admissions for COPD took place (adjusted odds ratio: 0.21; 95% confidence interval: 0.03-0.81) and strong indications were found for fewer hospitalizations (adjusted incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence that palliative care improves quality of life in patients with COPD. However, it can potentially reduce acute healthcare use. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic led to suboptimal implementation and insufficient power, and may have affected some of our findings.

External Validation and User Experiences of the ProPal-COPD Tool to Identify the Palliative Phase in COPD

Background

Difficulty predicting prognosis is a major barrier to timely palliative care provision for patients with COPD. The ProPal-COPD tool, combining six clinical indicators and the Surprise Question (SQ), aims to predict 1-year mortality as a proxy for palliative care needs. It appeared to be a promising tool for healthcare providers to identify patients with COPD who could benefit from palliative care.

Objective

To externally validate the ProPal-COPD tool and to assess user experiences.

Methods

Patients admitted with an acute exacerbation COPD were recruited across 10 hospitals. Demographics, clinical characteristics and survival status were collected. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the tool using two cut-off values were calculated. Also, predictive properties of the SQ were calculated. In monitoring meetings and interviews, healthcare providers shared their experiences with the tool. Transcripts were deductively coded using six user experience domains: Acceptability, Satisfaction, Credibility, Usability, User-reported adherence and Perceived impact.

Results

A total of 523 patients with COPD were included between May 2019 and August 2020, of whom 100 (19.1%) died within 12 months. The ProPal-COPD tool had an AUC of 0.68 and a low sensitivity (55%) and moderate specificity (74%) for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality. Using a lower cut-off value, sensitivity was higher (74%), but specificity lower (46%). Sensitivity and specificity of the SQ were 56% and 73%, respectively (AUC 0.65). However, healthcare providers generally appreciated using the tool because it increased awareness of the palliative phase and provided a shared understanding of prognosis, although they considered its outcome not always correct.

Conclusion

The accuracy of the ProPal-COPD tool to predict 1-year mortality is limited, although screening patients with its indicators increases healthcare providers' awareness of palliative care needs and encourages them to timely initiate appropriate care.

Implementation of a palliative care intervention for patients with COPD - a mixed methods process evaluation of the COMPASSION study

OBJECTIVES

Little direction exists on how to effectively implement palliative care for patients with COPD. In the COMPASSION study, we developed, executed, and evaluated a multifaceted implementation strategy to improve the uptake of region-tailored palliative care intervention components into routine COPD care. We evaluated the implementation strategy and assessed the implementation process, barriers, and facilitators.

METHODS

A mixed methods process evaluation was performed. Primary and secondary healthcare providers in four hospital regions in the Netherlands were trained. Patients identified during hospitalisation for an acute exacerbation received palliative care and were followed for a year. Various sources were used: process data, questionnaires including the End-of-life Professional Caregiver Survey (EPCS), medical records, monitoring meetings, and interviews. The Consolidated Framework of Implementation Research (CFIR) was used to categorize implementation determinants.

RESULTS

The training sessions with roleplay were positively evaluated and increased professionals' self-efficacy in providing palliative care statistically significantly. Of 98 patients identified, 44 (44.9%) received one or more palliative care conversations at the outpatient clinic. Having those conversations was highly valued by healthcare providers because it led to clarity and peace of mind for the patient and higher job satisfaction. Coordination and continuity remained suboptimal. Most important barriers to implementation were time constraints, the COVID-19 pandemic, and barriers related to transmural and interdisciplinary collaboration. Facilitators were the systematic screening of patients for palliative care needs, adapting to the patient's readiness, conducting palliative care conversations with a pulmonologist and a COPD nurse together, and meeting regularly with a small team led by a dedicated implementation leader.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing integrated palliative care for patients with COPD is highly valued by healthcare providers but remains challenging. Our findings will guide future implementation efforts. Future research should focus on how to optimize transmural and interdisciplinary collaboration. Trial registration The COMPASSION study is registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NL7644. Registration date: 07/04/2019.

Grupo de síntomas de enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y cuidados paliativos: una revisión sistemática

La enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC) es una entidad patológica que se caracteriza por una serie de manifestaciones físicas persistentes como tos, fatiga, disnea y producción de esputo; síntomas que generan malestar en el paciente desde el momento del diagnóstico y que, al ser una enfermedad irreversible por el daño tisular que causa, progresivamente va incidiendo de manera negativa en la calidad de vida. De otra parte, se ha reportado presencia de síntomas psicológicos como depresión, inseguridad, ansiedad y alteraciones emocionales en los pacientes diagnosticados con EPOC. Así mismo, los pacientes con este diagnóstico tienden a desarrollar comportamientos que alteran sus relaciones sociales familiares y laborales, por cuanto tienden a aislarse debido a la sintomatología, especialmente física. La situación planteada genera la necesidad de desarrollar un trabajo de investigación con el objetivo de reconocer el clúster de síntomas físicos, psicológicos y sociales de los pacientes diagnosticados con EPOC, e identificar si se plantea un abordaje desde la atención paliativa. El estudio se desarrolló mediante una revisión sistemática de literatura en la que se identificaron 1776 artículos, de los que se evaluaron 41 para la identificación del clúster de síntomas. Se identificó el binomio disnea y tos, fatiga y expectoración como el clúster de síntomas físicos; la depresión y la ansiedad constituyen el clúster de síntomas psicológicos, y el impacto en la calidad de vida y la percepción de aislamiento o exclusión social.

The utility of the surprise question: A useful tool for identifying patients nearing the last phase of life? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The surprise question is widely used to identify patients nearing the last phase of life. Potential differences in accuracy between timeframe, patient subgroups and type of healthcare professionals answering the surprise question have been suggested. Recent studies might give new insights.

AIM

To determine the accuracy of the surprise question in predicting death, differentiating by timeframe, patient subgroup and by type of healthcare professional.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science and CINAHL were searched from inception till 22nd January 2021. Studies were eligible if they used the surprise question prospectively and assessed mortality. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value and c-statistic were calculated.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria, including 88.268 assessments. The meta-analysis resulted in an estimated sensitivity of 71.4% (95% CI [66.3-76.4]) and specificity of 74.0% (95% CI [69.3-78.6]). The negative predictive value varied from 98.0% (95% CI [97.7-98.3]) to 88.6% (95% CI [87.1-90.0]) with a mortality rate of 5% and 25% respectively. The positive predictive value varied from 12.6% (95% CI [11.0-14.2]) with a mortality rate of 5% to 47.8% (95% CI [44.2-51.3]) with a mortality rate of 25%. Seven studies provided detailed information on different healthcare professionals answering the surprise question.

CONCLUSION

We found overall reasonable test characteristics for the surprise question. Additionally, this study showed notable differences in performance within patient subgroups. However, we did not find an indication of notable differences between timeframe and healthcare professionals.

The development of the ADO-SQ model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD

BACKGROUND

Goals of end-of-life care must be adapted to the needs of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are in the last phase of life. However, identification of those patients is limited by moderate performances of existing prognostic models and by limited validation of the often-recommended surprise question.

AIM

To develop a clinical prediction model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD.

DESIGN

Prospective study using logistic regression to develop a model in two steps: (1) external validation of the ADO, BODEX, or CODEX models (A = age; B = body mass index; C = comorbidity; D = dyspnea; EX = exacerbations; O = airflow obstruction); (2) updating of best performing model and extending it with the surprise question. Discriminative performance of the new model was assessed using internal-external validation and measured with area under the curve (AUC). A nomogram and web application were developed.

SETTINGS/PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COPD from five hospitals (September-November 2017).

RESULTS

Of the 358 included patients (median age 69.5 years, 50% male), 63 (17%) died within a year. The ADO index (AUC 0.73) had the best discriminative ability compared to the BODEX (AUC 0.71) or CODEX (AUC 0.68), and was extended with the surprise question. The resulting ADO-surprise question (SQ) model had an AUC of 0.79.

CONCLUSION

The ADO-SQ model offers improved discriminative performance for predicting 1-year mortality compared to the surprise question, ADO, BODEX, or CODEX. A user-friendly nomogram and web application (https://dnieboer.shinyapps.io/copd) were developed. Further external validation of the ADO-SQ in patient groups is needed.

A Systematic Review of the Development and Implementation of Needs-Based Palliative Care Tools in Heart Failure and Chronic Respiratory Disease

Background

The impetus to develop and implement tools for non-malignant patient groups is reflected in the increasing number of instruments being developed for heart failure and chronic respiratory diseases. Evidence syntheses of psychometric quality and clinical utility of these tools is required to inform research and clinical practice.

Aims

This systematic review examined palliative care needs tools for people diagnosed with advanced heart failure or chronic respiratory diseases, to determine their: (1) psychometric quality; and (2) acceptability, feasibility and clinical utility when implemented in clinical practice.

Methods

Systematic searches of MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Cochrane and PsycINFO from database inception until June 2021 were undertaken. Additionally, the reference lists of included studies were searched for relevant articles. Psychometric properties of identified measures were evaluated against pre-determined and standard criteria.

Results

Eighteen tools met inclusion criteria: 11 were developed to assess unmet patient palliative care needs. Of those, 6 were generic, 4 were developed for heart failure and 1 was developed for interstitial lung disease. Seven tools identified those who may benefit from palliative care and include general and disease-specific indicators. The psychometric qualities of the tools varied. None met all of the accepted criteria for psychometric rigor in heart failure or respiratory disease populations. There is limited implementation of needs assessment tools in practice.

Conclusion

Several tools were identified, however further validation studies in heart failure and respiratory disease populations are required. Rigorous evaluation to determine the impact of adopting a systematic needs-based approach for heart failure and lung disease on the physical and psychosocial outcomes of patients and carers, as well as the economic costs and benefits to the healthcare system, is required.

Predictors of mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Better insight in patients’ prognosis can help physicians to timely initiate advance care planning (ACP) discussions with patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to identify predictors of mortality.

Methods

We systematically searched databases Embase, PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central in April 2020. Papers reporting on predictors or prognostic models for mortality at 3 months and up to 24 months were assessed on risk-of-bias. We performed a meta-analysis with a fixed or random-effects model, and evaluated the discriminative ability of multivariable prognostic models.

Results

We included 42 studies (49–418,251 patients); 18 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Significant predictors of mortality within 3–24 months in the random-effects model were: previous hospitalization for acute exacerbation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32–2.95), hospital readmission within 30 days (HR 5.01; 95% CI 2.16–11.63), cardiovascular comorbidity (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.25–2.87), age (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.38–1.59), male sex (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.38–1.59), and long-term oxygen therapy (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.10–2.73). Nineteen previously developed multicomponent prognostic models, as examined in 11 studies, mostly had moderate discriminate ability.

Conclusion

Identified predictors of mortality may aid physicians in selecting COPD patients who may benefit from ACP. However, better discriminative ability of prognostic models or development of a new prognostic model is needed for further large-scale implementation.

Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42016038494), https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-022-01911-5.

Health information technology to improve care for people with multiple chronic conditions

OBJECTIVE

To review evidence regarding the use of Health Information Technology (health IT) interventions aimed at improving care for people living with multiple chronic conditions (PLWMCC) in order to identify critical knowledge gaps.

DATA SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Compendex, and IEEE Xplore databases for studies published in English between 2010 and 2020.

STUDY DESIGN

We identified studies of health IT interventions for PLWMCC across three domains as follows: self-management support, care coordination, and algorithms to support clinical decision making.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

Structured search queries were created and validated. Abstracts were reviewed iteratively to refine inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search was supplemented by manually searching the bibliographic sections of the included studies. The search included a forward citation search of studies nested within a clinical trial to identify the clinical trial protocol and published clinical trial results. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The search yielded 1907 articles; 44 were included. Nine randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 35 other studies including quasi-experimental, usability, feasibility, qualitative studies, or development/validation studies of analytic models were included. Five RCTs had positive results, and the remaining four RCTs showed that the interventions had no effect. The studies address individual patient engagement and assess patient-centered outcomes such as quality of life. Few RCTs assess outcomes such as disability and none assess mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a growing body of literature on health IT interventions or multicomponent interventions including a health IT component for chronic disease management, current evidence for applying health IT solutions to improve care for PLWMCC is limited. The body of literature included in this review provides critical information on the state of the science as well as the many gaps that need to be filled for digital health to fulfill its promise in supporting care delivery that meets the needs of PLWMCC.

Palliative Care and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Readmissions: A Narrative Review

Despite all the advances in the treatment and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), COPD readmissions remain a major challenge nationwide. Increasing evidence suggests that palliative care involvement with a holistic approach towards end-of-life care can significantly improve outcomes related to the quality of life and survival for late-stage cancers and chronic progressive illnesses like COPD, chronic heart failure, and end-stage renal disease. Some studies have attempted to evaluate an association between the involvement of palliative care and readmission reduction, the effect of which remains elusive, especially with regards to COPD readmissions. This review examined the existing literature to analyze the relationship between palliative care involvement for COPD patients and its effect on COPD readmissions.

Referral criteria to palliative care for patients with respiratory disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Advanced non-malignant respiratory diseases are associated with significant patient morbidity, yet access to palliative care occurs late, if at all.

AIM

To examine referral criteria for palliative care among patients with advanced non-malignant respiratory disease, with a view to developing a standardised set of referral criteria.

DESIGN

Systematic review of all studies reporting on referral criteria to palliative care in advanced non-malignant respiratory disease, with a focus on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic review conducted and reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analyses guideline was undertaken using electronic databases (Ovid, MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, and PubMed).

RESULTS

Searches yielded 2052 unique titles, which were screened for eligibility resulting in 62 studies addressing referral criteria to palliative care in advanced non-malignant respiratory disease. Of 18 categories put forward for referral to palliative care, the most commonly discussed factors were hospital use (69% of papers), indicators of poor respiratory status (47%), physical and emotional symptoms (37%), functional decline (29%), need for advanced respiratory therapies (27%), and disease progression (26%).

CONCLUSION

Clinicians consider referral to specialist palliative care for a wide range of disease- and needs-based criteria. Our findings highlight the need to standardise palliative care access by developing consensus referral criteria for patients with advanced non-malignant respiratory illnesses.

A cluster randomized controlled trial on a multifaceted implementation strategy to promote integrated palliative care in COPD: study protocol of the COMPASSION study

BACKGROUND

Despite the urgent need for palliative care for patients with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), it is not yet daily practice. Important factors influencing the provision of palliative care are adequate communication skills, knowing when to start palliative care and continuity of care. In the COMPASSION study, we address these factors by implementing an integrated palliative care approach for patients with COPD and their informal caregivers.

METHODS

An integrated palliative care intervention was developed based on existing guidelines, a literature review, and input from patient and professional organizations. To facilitate uptake of the intervention, a multifaceted implementation strategy was developed, comprising a toolbox, (communication) training, collaboration support, action planning and monitoring. Using a hybrid effectiveness-implementation type 2 design, this study aims to simultaneously evaluate the implementation process and effects on patient, informal caregiver and professional outcomes. In a cluster randomized controlled trial, eight hospital regions will be randomized to receive the integrated palliative care approach or to provide care as usual. Eligible patients are identified during hospitalization for an exacerbation using the Propal-COPD tool. The primary outcome is quality of life (FACIT-Pal) at 6 months. Secondary outcome measures include spiritual well-being, anxiety and depression, unplanned healthcare use, informal caregiver burden and healthcare professional's self-efficacy to provide palliative care. The implementation process will be investigated by a comprehensive mixed-methods evaluation assessing the following implementation constructs: context, reach, dose delivered, dose received, fidelity, implementation level, recruitment, maintenance and acceptability. Furthermore, determinants to implementation will be investigated using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research.

DISCUSSION

The COMPASSION study will broaden knowledge on the effectiveness and process of palliative care integration into COPD-care. Furthermore, it will improve our understanding of which strategies may optimize the implementation of integrated palliative care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): NL7644 . Registration date: April 7, 2019.

Preferences for Predictive Model Characteristics among People Living with Chronic Lung Disease: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Background. Patients may find clinical prediction models more useful if those models accounted for preferences for false-positive and false-negative predictive errors and for other model characteristics. Methods. We conducted a discrete choice experiment to compare preferences for characteristics of a hypothetical mortality prediction model among community-dwelling patients with chronic lung disease recruited from 3 clinics in Philadelphia. This design was chosen to allow us to quantify "exchange rates" between different characteristics of a prediction model. We provided previously validated educational modules to explain model attributes of sensitivity, specificity, confidence intervals (CI), and time horizons. Patients reported their interest in using prediction models themselves or having their physicians use them. Patients then chose between 2 hypothetical prediction models each containing varying levels of the 4 attributes across 12 tasks. Results. We completed interviews with 200 patients, among whom 95% correctly chose a strictly dominant model in an internal validity check. Patients' interest in predictive information was high for use by themselves (n = 169, 85%) and by their physicians (n = 184, 92%). Interest in maximizing sensitivity and specificity were similar (0.88 percentage points of specificity equivalent to 1 point of sensitivity, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.05). Patients were willing to accept a reduction of 6.10 months (95% CI 3.66 to 8.54) in the predictive time horizon for a 1% increase in specificity. Discussion. Patients with chronic lung disease can articulate their preferences for the characteristics of hypothetical mortality prediction models and are highly interested in using such models as part of their care. Just as clinical care should become more patient centered, so should the characteristics of predictive models used to guide that care.

Early Integrated Palliative Home Care and Standard Care for End-Stage COPD (EPIC): A Phase II Pilot RCT Testing Feasibility, Acceptability, and Effectiveness

CONTEXT

Although early integrated palliative home care (PHC) is believed to be beneficial for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), trials testing this hypothesis are rare and show inconclusive results.

OBJECTIVES

To test feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary effectiveness of early integrated PHC for end-stage COPD.

METHODS

Testing a six-month early integrated PHC pilot randomized controlled trial given by palliative home care nurses (PHCNs) for end-stage COPD with five components: 1) preinclusion COPD support training for PHCNs; 2) monthly PHC visits; 3) leaflets on coping mechanisms; 4) a protocol on symptom management and support, a care plan and an action plan; and 5) integration of PHC and usual care through reporting and communication mechanisms. Patient-reported outcomes were assessed six times weekly. Participants and health care professionals involved were interviewed.

RESULTS

Of 70 eligible patients, 39 (56%) participated (20:19 intervention vs control group) and 64% completed the trial. A patient received on average 3.4 PHC visits, mainly for disease insight, symptom management, and care planning. Nurses distributed all reports but hardly connected with health professionals except general practitioners (GPs); eight of 10 interviewed patients referred to the psychosocial support, breathing exercises, and care decisions as helpful. Some GPs criticized PHC being given too early, but pulmonologists and PHCNs did not. Effectiveness analysis showed no overall intervention effect for the outcomes, but between baseline and week 24, fewer hospitalizations in the control group (P = 0.03) and a trend of higher perceived quality of care in the intervention group (P = 0.06) were found. A clinically relevant difference was observed at week 24 for health-related quality of life in favor of the control group.

CONCLUSION

Our intervention on early integrated PHC for end-stage COPD is feasible and accepted but did not yield the anticipated preliminary effectiveness. Before moving to a Phase III trial, enhanced coordination of care, more GP involvement, more intensive training for PHCNs in COPD support, and revision of the trial design, for example, of targeted outcomes in line with individual patient goals and care preferences should be done.

Can Early Introduction of Palliative Care Limit Intensive Care, Emergency and Hospital Admissions in Patients with Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A Pilot Randomized Study

BACKGROUND

Despite their poor prognosis, patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have little access to palliative care and tend to have a high rate of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions during their last year of life.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the feasibility of a home palliative care intervention during 1 year versus usual care, and the possible impact of this intervention on emergency, hospital and ICU admissions, survival, mood, and health-related quality of life (HRQL).

METHODS

Prospective controlled study of patients with severe COPD (GOLD stage III or IV) and long-term oxygen therapy and/or home noninvasive ventilation and/or one or more hospital admissions in the previous year for acute exacerbation, randomized to usual care versus usual care with add-on monthly intervention by palliative care specialists at home for 12 months.

RESULTS

Of 315 patients screened, 49 (15.5%) were randomized (26 to early palliative care; 23 to the control group); aged (mean ± SD) 71 ± 8 years; FEV1 was 37 ± 14% predicted; 88% with a COPD assessment test score > 10; 69% on long-term oxygen therapy or home noninvasive ventilation. The patients accepted the intervention and completed the assessment scales. After 1 year, there was no difference between groups in symptoms, HRQL and mood, and there was a nonsignificant trend for higher admission rates to hospital and emergency wards in the intervention group.

CONCLUSION

Although this pilot study was underpowered to formally exclude a benefit from palliative care in severe COPD, it raises several questions as to patient selection, reluctance to palliative care in this group, and modalities of future trials.

Using Demographic Factors and Comorbidities to Develop a Predictive Model for ICU Mortality in Patients with Acute Exacerbation COPD

Recognizing factors associated with mortality in patients admitted to the ICU with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease could reduce healthcare costs and improve end-of-life care. Previous studies have identified possible predictive variables, but analysis is lacking on the combined effect of demographic factors and comorbidities. Using the MIMIC-III database, this study examined factors associated with mortality in a model incorporating comorbidities, comorbidity indices, and demographic factors. After determining associations between predictive variables and mortality through univariate and multivariate binomial logistic regression, three predictive models were developed: (1) univariate GLM-derived logistic, (2) Mean Gini-derived logistic (MGDL), and (3) random forest. The MGDL model best predicted mortality with an AUROC of 0.778. Variables with the greatest relative importance in determining mortality included the Charlson Comorbidity Index, Elixhauser Index, male, and arrhythmia. The results support the potential of using the MGDL model and need for further work in exploring demographic factors.

Attitudes to specialist palliative care and advance care planning in people with COPD: a multi-national survey of palliative and respiratory medicine specialists

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) guidelines recommend early access to palliative care together with optimal, disease-directed therapy for people with advanced disease, however, this occurs infrequently. This study explored the approaches of respiratory and palliative medicine specialists to palliative care and advance care planning (ACP) in advanced COPD.

Methods

An online survey was emailed to all specialists and trainees in respiratory medicine in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and to all palliative medicine specialists and trainees in ANZ and the United Kingdom.

Results

Five hundred seventy-seven (33.1%) responses were received, with 440 (25.2%) complete questionnaires included from 177 respiratory and 263 palliative medicine doctors. Most respiratory doctors (140, 80.9%) were very or quite comfortable providing a palliative approach themselves to people with COPD. 113 (63.8%) respiratory doctors recommended referring people with advanced COPD to specialist palliative care, mainly for access to: psychosocial and spiritual care (105, 59.3%), carer support (104, 58.5%), and end-of-life care (94, 53.1%). 432 (98.2%) participants recommended initiating ACP discussions. Palliative medicine doctors were more likely to recommend discussing: what palliative care is (p < 0.0001), what death and dying might be like (p < 0.0001) and prognosis (p = 0.004). Themes highlighted in open responses included: inadequate, fragmented models of care, with limited collaboration or support from palliative care services.

Conclusions

While both specialties recognised the significant palliative care and ACP needs of people with advanced COPD, in reality few patients access these elements of care. Formal collaboration and bi-directional support between respiratory and palliative medicine, are required to address these unmet needs.