Independent Risk Factors for the Dynamic Development of COVID-19: A Retrospective Study

Development and external validation of the DOAT and DOATS scores: simple decision support tools to identify disease progression among nonelderly patients with mild/moderate COVID-19

BACKGROUND

During the fifth wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan, which took place between June and September 2021, a significant number of COVID-19 cases with deterioration occurred in unvaccinated individuals < 65 years old. However, the risk factors for COVID-19 deterioration in this specific population have not yet been determined. This study developed a prediction method to identify COVID-19 patients < 65 years old who are at a high risk of deterioration.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed data from 1,675 patients < 65 years old who were admitted to acute care institutions in Fukushima with mild-to-moderate-1 COVID-19 based on the Japanese disease severity criteria prior to the fifth wave. For validation, 324 similar patients were enrolled from 3 hospitals in Yamagata. Logistic regression analyses using cluster-robust variance estimation were used to determine predictors of disease deterioration, followed by creation of risk prediction scores. Disease deterioration was defined as the initiation of medication for COVID-19, oxygen inhalation, or mechanical ventilation starting one day or later after admission.

RESULTS

The patients whose condition deteriorated (8.6%) tended to be older, male, have histories of smoking, and have high body temperatures, low oxygen saturation values, and comorbidities, such as diabetes/obesity and hypertension. Stepwise variable selection using logistic regression to predict COVID-19 deterioration retained comorbidities of diabetes/obesity (DO), age (A), body temperature (T), and oxygen saturation (S). Two predictive scores were created based on the optimism-corrected regression coefficients: the DOATS score, including all of the above risk factors, and the DOAT score, which was the DOATS score without oxygen saturation. In the original cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) of the DOATS and DOAT scores were 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.85) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUROCs for each score were both 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.83), and the calibration slopes were both 0.80. A decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical practicability of both scores in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We established two prediction scores that can quickly evaluate the risk of COVID-19 deterioration in mild/moderate patients < 65 years old.

COVID-19 Pneumonia: Clinical Manifestations

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia has diverse clinical manifestations, which have shifted throughout the pandemic. Formal classifications include presymptomatic infection and mild, moderate, severe, and critical illness. Social risk factors are numerous, with Black, Hispanic, and Native American populations in the United States having suffered disproportionately. Biological risk factors such as age, sex, underlying comorbid burden, and certain laboratory metrics can assist the clinician in triage and management. Guidelines for classifying radiographic findings have been proposed and may assist in prognosis. In this article, we review the risk factors, clinical course, complications, and imaging findings of COVID-19 pneumonia.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between the neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and COVID-19 progression and mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Severe manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are associated with alterations in blood cells that regulate immunity, inflammation, and hemostasis. We conducted an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between the neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and COVID-19 progression and mortality.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for studies published between January 2020 and June 2022.

RESULTS

In 71 studies reporting the investigated parameters within 48 hours of admission, higher NLR (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.27, p < 0.0001), relative neutrophilia (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.80, p < 0.0001), relative lymphopenia (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.08, p < 0.001), and relative thrombocytopenia (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.22, p < 0.001), but not PLR (p = 0.11), were significantly associated with disease progression and mortality. Between-study heterogeneity was large-to-extreme. The magnitude and direction of the effect size were not modified in sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR and neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet count significantly discriminate COVID-19 patients with different progression and survival outcomes. (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021267875).