Prediction model for the onset risk of impaired fasting glucose: a 10-year longitudinal retrospective cohort health check-up study

BACKGROUND

Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is a prediabetic condition. Considering that the clinical symptoms of IFG are inconspicuous, these tend to be easily ignored by individuals, leading to conversion to diabetes mellitus (DM). In this study, we established a prediction model for the onset risk of IFG in the Chongqing health check-up population to provide a reference for prevention in a health check-up cohort.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal cohort study in Chongqing, China from January 2009 to December 2019. The qualified subjects were more than 20 years old and had more than two health check-ups. After following the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the cohort population was randomly divided into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 7:3. We first selected the predictor variables through the univariate generalized estimation equation (GEE), and then the training set was used to establish the IFG risk model based on multivariate GEE. Finally, the sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to verify the performance of the model.

RESULTS

A total of 4,926 subjects were included in this study, with an average of 3.87 check-up records, including 2,634 males and 2,292 females. There were 442 IFG cases during the follow-up period, including 286 men and 156 women. The incidence density was 26.88/1000 person-years for men and 18.53/1000 person-years for women (P<0.001). The predictor variables of our prediction model include male (relative risk (RR) =1.422, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.923-2.193, P=0.3849), age (RR=1.030, 95 %CI: 1.016-1.044, P<0.0001), waist circumference (RR=1.005, 95 %CI: 0.999-1.012, P=0.0975), systolic blood pressure (RR=1.004, 95 %CI: 0.993-1.016, P=0.4712), diastolic blood pressure (RR=1.023, 95 %CI: 1.005-1.041, P=0.0106), obesity (RR=1.797, 95 %CI: 1.126-2.867, P=0.0140), triglycerides (RR=1.107, 95 %CI: 0.943-1.299, P=0.2127), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (RR=0.992, 95 %CI: 0.476-2.063, P=0.9818), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (RR=1.793, 95 %CI: 1.085-2.963, P=0.0228), blood urea (RR=1.142, 95 %CI: 1.022-1.276, P=0.0192), serum uric acid (RR=1.004, 95 %CI: 1.002-1.005, P=0.0003), total cholesterol (RR=0.674, 95 %CI: 0.403-1.128, P=0.1331), and serum creatinine levels (RR=0.960, 95 %CI: 0.945-0.976, P<0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the training set was 0.740 (95 %CI: 0.712-0.768), and the AUC in the test set was 0.751 (95 %CI: 0.714-0.817).

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction model for the onset risk of IFG had good predictive ability in the health check-up cohort.

Achievement of low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol targets in primary and secondary prevention: Analysis of a large real practice database in Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Target and intensity of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering therapy should be tailored according to the individual global cardiovascular (CV) risk. We aimed at retrospectively evaluating real-life LDL-C goal attainment and predictive factors for predefined LDL-C therapeutic goals both in primary and secondary prevention.

METHODS

We collected data from a large cohort of outpatients aged 40-65 years, followed by general practitioners, cardiologists and diabetologists in Italy. All data were centrally analysed for global CV risk assessment and rates of control of major CV risk factors, including LDL-C. Study population was stratified according to the presence or absence of previous CV events, including coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD) or stroke/TIA. CV risk profile characterization was based on the European SCORE. Predefined therapeutic goals were set according to the European guidelines on dyslipidaemia: LDL-C levels <70 mg/dl for very high CV risk patients in primary prevention and for those in secondary prevention; <100 mg/dl LDL-C levels for high CV risk patients in primary prevention. Logistic regression analysis with clinical covariates was used to identify predictive factors for achieving these goals; lipid lowering therapy entered in the analysis as continuous (model 1) or categorical variable (model 2).

RESULTS

We included 4,142 outpatients (43,7% female, age 58.0 ± 5.2 years, BMI 28.5 ± 5.0 kg/m²) among whom 2,964 (71.6%) in primary and 1,178 (28.4%) in secondary prevention. In primary prevention, none of the patients at very high CV risk had LDL-C <70 mg/dl and 8.9% of patients at high CV risk showed LDL-C <100 mg/dl. Only 5.8% of patients in secondary prevention had LDL-C levels <70 mg/dl, specifically 6.5% of patients with CAD, 2.6% of patients with PAD and 4.7% of patients with CVD (p < 0.001). Beyond diabetes and lipid lowering therapy, high risk SCORE estimation resulted a strong and independent predictor for the lack of achieving all predefined therapeutic targets, including LDL-C <100 mg/dl [OR: 0.806 (0.751-0.865)); p < 0.001], and LDL-C <70 mg/dl [OR: 0.712 (0-576-0.880); p = 0.002], in primary prevention.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high or very high SCORE risk and use of lipid lowering therapies, we observed poor achievement of LDL-C targets in this large cohort of outpatients followed in a setting of real practice in Italy.

Reclassification of Hypertensive Outpatients According to New US Guidelines on High Blood Pressure

BACKGROUND

US guidelines on high blood pressure (BP) have recently proposed a new BP stratification.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the redistribution of adult outpatients according to 2003 and 2017 US hypertension guidelines.

METHODS

We extracted data referred to individuals aged between 40 and 70 years with valid BP assessment from a national, cross-sectional database. The following systolic/diastolic BP strata were considered: (i) 2003 guidelines: 0 = normal (<120/180 mm Hg), 1 = prehypertension (≥120 and ≤139/≥80 and ≤89 mm Hg), 2 = stage 1 (≥140 and ≤159/≥90 and ≤99 mm Hg), 3 = stage 2 (≥160/≥100 mm Hg) and (ii) 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines: 0 = normal (<120/80 mm Hg), 1 = elevated (≥120 and ≤129/<80 mm Hg); 2 = stage 1 (≥130 and ≤139/≥80 and ≤89 mm Hg), 3 = stage 2 (≥140/≥90 mm Hg). Cardiovascular (CV) risk profile characterization was based on Framingham, 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and European score equations.

RESULTS

From an overall population sample of 10,012 individuals, we selected 8,911 (89.0%) with valid clinic BP data (44.4% female, age = 60.7 ± 6.6 years, body mass index = 28.2 ± 4.9 kg/m2, clinic BP = 136.8 ± 14.5/82.1 ± 8.3 mm Hg), among whom 339 (3.8%) were in the normal BP range. According to 2003 guidelines, 3,919 (44.0%) patients had prehypertension, 3,698 (41.5%) had stage-1 and 955 (10.7%) had stage-2 hypertension. According to 2017 guidelines, 635 (3.8%) patients had elevated BP, 3,284 (36.9%) had stage-1 and 4,653 (52.2%) had stage-2 hypertension. New BP classification moved 37% individuals from "pre-hypertension" to "stage 1" and 41% from "stage 1" to "stage 2" hypertension, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Redistribution of hypertensive patients according to 2017 US hypertension guidelines compared with previous ones may help to better identify uncontrolled hypertensive patients with high CV risk profile.

Achievement of multiple therapeutic targets for cardiovascular disease prevention: Retrospective analysis of real practice in Italy

BACKGROUND

Pharmacological therapy in patients at high cardiovascular (CV) risk should be tailored to achieve recommended therapeutic targets.

HYPOTHESIS

To evaluate individual global CV risk profile and to estimate the control rates of multiple therapeutic targets for in adult outpatients followed in real practice in Italy.

METHODS

Data extracted from a cross-sectional, national medical database of adult outpatients in real practice in Italy were analyzed for global CV risk assessment and rates of control of major CV risk factors, including hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and obesity. CV risk characterization was based on the European SCORE equation and the study population stratified into 3 groups: low risk (<2%), intermediate risk (≥2%-<5%), and high to very high risk (≥5%).

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 7158 adult outpatients (mean age, 57.7 ±5.3 years; BMI, 28.3 ±5.0 kg/m² , BP, 136.0 ±14.3/82.2 ±8.3 mm Hg; total cholesterol, 212.7 ±40.7 mg/dL), among whom 2029 (45.2%) had low, 1730 (24.2%) intermediate, and 731 (16.3%) high to very high risk. Increased SCORE risk was an independent predictor of poor achievement of diastolic BP <90 mm Hg (OR: 0.852, 95% CI: 0.822-0.882), LDL-C < 130 mg/dL (OR: 0.892, 95% CI: 0.861-0.924), HDL-C > 40 (males)/>50 (females) mg/dL (OR: 0.926, 95% CI: 0.895-0.958), triglycerides <160 mg/dL (OR: 0.925, 95% CI: 0.895-0.957), and BMI <25 kg/m² (OR: 0.888, 95% CI: 0.851-0.926), even after correction for diabetes, renal function, pharmacological therapy, and referring physicians (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite low prevalence and optimal medical therapy, individuals with high to very high SCORE risk did not achieve recommended therapeutic targets in a real-world practice.

Impact of diabetes mellitus on the clinical management of global cardiovascular risk: analysis of the results of the Evaluation of Final Feasible Effect of Control Training and Ultra Sensitization (EFFECTUS) educational program

BACKGROUND

The Evaluation of Final Feasible Effect of Ultra Control Training and Sensitization (EFFECTUS) study is aimed at implementing global cardiovascular (CV) risk management in Italy.

HYPOTHESIS

To evaluate the impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on attitudes and preferences for clinical management of global CV risk among physicians treating diabetic or nondiabetic patients.

METHODS

Involved physicians were asked to submit data into a study-designed case-report form, covering the first 10 adult outpatients consecutively seen in May 2006. All available clinical data were centrally analyzed for global CV risk assessment and CV risk profile characterization. Patients were stratified according to the presence or absence of DM.

RESULTS

Overall, 1078 physicians (27% female, ages 50 ± 7 y) collected data of 9904 outpatients (46.5% female, ages 67 ± 9 y), among whom 3681 (37%) had a diagnosis of DM at baseline. Diabetic patients were older and had higher prevalence of obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and associated CV diseases than nondiabetic individuals (P<0.001). They had higher systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and creatinine levels, but lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels than nondiabetic patients (P<0.001). Higher numbers of blood pressure and lipid-lowering drugs and antiplatelet agents were used in diabetic than in nondiabetic patients (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The EFFECTUS study confirmed higher CV risk and more CV drug prescriptions in diabetic than in nondiabetic patients. Presence of DM at baseline significantly improved clinical data collection. Such an approach, however, was not paralleled by a better control of global CV risk profile, which was significantly worse in the former than in the latter group.

Prevalence of 'borderline' values of cardiovascular risk factors in the clinical practice of general medicine in Italy: results of the BORDERLINE study

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of patients with 'borderline' levels of cardiovascular risk factors has been rarely investigated, being often reported in studies evaluating abnormal values of these parameters. The BORDERLINE study represents a pilot experience to primarily identify the prevalence of 'high-normal' conditions, such as pre-hypertension, lipid and glucose levels in the upper range of normality in the setting of general practice in Italy.

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of patients with 'borderline' values of cardiovascular risk factors in Italy.

METHODS

Involved physicians were asked to evaluate the first 20 outpatients, consecutively seen in June 2009. Data were collected in a study-designed case-report form, in which physicians identified thresholds rather than reported absolute values of several clinical parameters. High-normal values were defined as follows: blood pressure (BP) 130-140/85-90 mmHg; total cholesterol 180-200 mg/dL; low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) 130-150 mg/dL; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) 30-40 mg/dL in males and 40-50 mg/dL in females; triglycerides 130-150 mg/dL and fasting glucose 100-110 mg/dL.

RESULTS

Fifty-three Italian physicians provided valuable clinical data on 826 individual outpatients, among which 692 (83.7%, 377 women, mean age 60.9 ± 13.2 years, body mass index 26.6 ± 5.0 kg/m2) were included in the present analysis. Prevalence of borderline values of systolic BP and total cholesterol levels were at least comparable with those in the normal limits of the corresponding parameters, whereas prevalence of borderline diastolic BP, LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides and fasting glucose levels was significantly lower than that of normal values, but higher than that of abnormal values of the corresponding parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Using this sample of healthy subjects in the setting of general practice in Italy, our results demonstrated a relatively high prevalence of borderline values of cardiovascular risk factors, which was at least comparable with that of normal, but significantly higher than that of abnormal thresholds. These preliminary findings may prompt more extensive investigations in the area of 'borderline' cardiovascular risk. This information may, in fact, potentially enable the design of more effective prevention strategies in the future to limit the burden of cardiovascular disease in the general population in Italy. Received for publication 4 March 2011; accepted for publication 20 April 2011.