Relationship between three-year survival and functional outcome at discharge from acute-care hospitals in each subtype of first-ever ischemic stroke patients

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Percutaneous Patent Foramen Ovale Closure Preventing Secondary Ischemic Stroke in Japan

OBJECTIVES

Patent foramen ovale is a hemodynamically insignificant interatrial communication that may cause ischemic stroke. Percutaneous patent foramen ovale closure reduces the risk for recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with a history of cryptogenic ischemic stroke. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of patent foramen ovale closure against medical therapy in patients after their first cryptogenic ischemic stroke in Japan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cost-effectiveness of patent foramen ovale closure compared with medical therapy was evaluated using the Markov model. The target patients started with patent foramen ovale closure or medical therapy for preventing secondary ischemic stroke under a stable state. Quality-adjusted life year was used as the outcome of effectiveness, and the analysis was conducted with a discount rate of 2% applied to both cost and effectiveness. The results of a multicenter open-label randomized controlled trial (RESPECT trial) evaluating patent foramen ovale closure using the Amplatzer™ PFO Occluder were used as clinical evidence. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. It was evaluated as cost-effective if it was lower than 5 million JPY/ quality-adjusted life year.

RESULTS

Patent foramen ovale closure was dominant over medical therapy by 2.53 quality-adjusted life years and an estimated cost reduction of 2,353,926 JPY. The probability of patent foramen ovale closure being dominant was 82.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

Patent foramen ovale closure was dominant over medical therapy for preventing secondary ischemic stroke in patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke.

Life Expectancy after Stroke Based On Age, Sex, and Rankin Grade of Disability: A Synthesis

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the developed world. The major factor affecting long term survival (other than age) is known to be the severity of disability. Yet to our knowledge there are no studies reporting life expectancies stratified by both age and severity. Remaining life expectancy is a key measure of health.

METHODS

We identified 11 long-term follow-up studies of stroke patients that reported the multivariate effects of age, sex, the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) grade of disability, and other factors. From these we computed the composite effects of these factors on survival, then used these to calculate age-, sex-, and mRS-specific mortality rates. Finally we used the rates to construct life tables, and hence obtain life expectancies.

RESULTS

Life expectancy varies by age, sex, and mRS. The life expectancies of males age 70, for example, were 13, 13, 11, 8, 6, and 5 years for Rankin Grades 0-5, respectively, representing reductions of 1, 1, 3, 6, 8, and 9 years from the corresponding general population figure.

CONCLUSIONS

These figures demonstrate the importance of rehabilitation following stroke, and can be used in discussion of public policy and benchmarking of future results.

Time Course of Evolution of Disability and Cause-Specific Mortality After Ischemic Stroke: Implications for Trial Design

Background

Outcome in stroke trials is often based on a 3‐month modified Rankin scale (mRS). How 3‐month mRS relates to longer‐term outcomes will depend on late recovery, delayed stroke‐related deaths, recurrent strokes, and nonstroke deaths. We evaluated 3‐month mRS and death/disability at 1 and 5 years in a population‐based cohort study.

Methods and Results

In 3‐month survivors of ischemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002‐2014), we related 3‐month mRS to disability (defined as mRS >2) at 1 and 5 years and/or death rates (age/sex adjusted). Accrual of disability and index‐stroke‐related and nonstroke deaths in each poststroke year was categorized according to 3‐month mRS. Among 1606 patients with acute ischemic stroke, 181 died within 3 months, but 126 index‐stroke‐related deaths and 320 other deaths occurred during the subsequent 4866 patient‐years of follow‐up up to 5 years. Although 69/126 (54.8%) post‐3‐month index‐stroke‐related deaths occurred after 1 year, mRS>2 at 1 year strongly predicted these deaths (adjusted hazard ratio=21.94, 95%CI 7.88‐61.09, P<0.0001). Consequently, a 3‐month mRS >2 was a strong independent predictor of death at both 1 year (adjusted hazard ratio=6.67, 95%CI 4.16‐10.69, P<0.0001) and 5 years (adjusted hazard ratio=2.93, 95%CI 2.38‐3.60, P<0.0001). Although mRS improved by ≥1 point from 3 months to 1 year in 317/1266 (25.0%) patients with 3‐month mRS ≥1, improvement in mRS after 1 year was limited (improvement by ≥1 point: 91/858 [10.6%]; improvement to mRS ≤2: 13/353 [3.7%]).

Conclusions

Our results reaffirm use of the 3‐month mRS outcome in stroke trials. Although later recovery does occur, extending follow‐up to 1 year would capture most long‐term stroke‐related disability. However, administrative mortality follow‐up beyond 1 year has the potential to demonstrate translation of early disability gains into additional reductions in long‐term mortality without much erosion by non‐stroke‐related deaths.

Clopidogrel versus aspirin in patients with recent ischemic stroke and established peripheral artery disease: an economic evaluation in a Chinese setting

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Clopidogrel or aspirin are indicated for patients with recent ischemic stroke (IS) or established peripheral artery disease (PAD). We compared the cost effectiveness of clopidogrel with that of aspirin in Chinese patients with recent IS or established PAD.

METHODS

A discrete-event simulation was developed to evaluate the economic implications of secondary prevention with clopidogrel versus aspirin. All available evidence was derived from clinical studies. Costs from a Chinese healthcare perspective in 2013 US dollars and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were projected over patients' lifetimes. Uncertainties were addressed using sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Compared with aspirin, clopidogrel yielded a marginally increased life expectancy by 0.46 and 0.21 QALYs at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $US5246 and $US9890 per QALY in patients with recent IS and established PAD, respectively. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the evaluation of patients with PAD and recent IS was robust except for the parameter of patient age. Given a willingness-to-pay of $US19,877 per QALY gained, clopidogrel had a probability of 90 and 68% of being cost effective in the recent IS or established PAD subgroups compared with aspirin, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis suggests that clopidogrel for secondary prevention is cost effective for patients with either PAD or recent IS in a Chinese setting in comparison with aspirin.

A proposal for the classification of etiologies of neurologic deterioration after acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Neurologic deterioration (ND) occurs in one third of patients with ischemic stroke and contributes to morbidity and mortality in these patients. Etiologies of ND and clinical outcome according to ND etiology are incompletely understood.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective investigation of all patients with ischemic stroke admitted to our center (July 2008 to December 2010), who were known to be last seen normal less than 48 hours before arrival. First-time episodes of ND during hospitalization were collected in which a patient experienced a 2-point increase or more in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score within a 24-hour period. Proposed etiologies of reversible ND include infectious, metabolic, hemodynamic, focal cerebral edema, fluctuation, sedation, and seizure, whereas new stroke, progressive stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and cardiopulmonary arrest were nonreversible.

RESULTS

Of 366 included patients (median age 65 years, 41.4% women, 68.3% black), 128 (34.9%) experienced ND (median age 69 years, 42.2% women, 68.7% black). Probable etiologies of ND were identified in 90.6% of all first-time ND events. The most common etiology of ND, progressive stroke, was highly associated with poor outcome but not death. Etiologies most associated with mortality included edema (47.8%), new stroke (50%), and intracerebral hemorrhage (42.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study, the authors identified probable etiologies of ND after ischemic stroke. Delineating the cause of ND could play an important role in the management of the patient and help set expectations for prognosis after ND has occurred. Prospective studies are needed to validate these proposed definitions of ND.

Secondary prevention by stroke subtype: a nationwide follow-up study in 46 108 patients after acute ischaemic stroke

AIMS

Although use of antithrombotic agents is recommended after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA), long-term outcome of secondary prevention between stroke subtypes has not yet been explored.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the Korean Stroke Registry (KSR), a nationwide, multicentre, prospective registry for acute stroke patients. Patients with acute ischaemic stroke or TIA within 7 days of onset were consecutively enrolled between January 2002 and September 2010. A total of 46 108 patients with ischaemic stroke and TIA were included in this study. Among the major stroke subtypes, stroke due to small vessel occlusion (SVO) showed the lowest mortality, whereas cardioembolic stroke (CE) was associated with the fatal prognosis during the follow-up [for SVO: hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.62-0.71; for CE: HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.30-1.53; large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) group as a reference]. Regarding secondary prevention, antiplatelet polytherapy was better than monotherapy in the patients with LAA-related stroke in prognosis [HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.98]. Anticoagulant therapy was associated with better outcome than antiplatelet monotherapy in CE-related stroke [HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.59-0.74]. In SVO-related stroke group, antiplatelet polytherapy failed to show benefits over monotherapy. Additionally, the risk of death was higher with anticoagulant therapy in the patients with SVO-related stroke [HR 1.44, CI 95% 1.06-1.97].

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that stroke subtype affects prognosis and also determines the effectiveness of secondary prevention.