Social Media Insights During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Infodemiology Study Using Big Data

Public Discourse, User Reactions, and Conspiracy Theories on the X Platform About HIV Vaccines: Data Mining and Content Analysis

BACKGROUND

The initiation of clinical trials for messenger RNA (mRNA) HIV vaccines in early 2022 revived public discussion on HIV vaccines after 3 decades of unsuccessful research. These trials followed the success of mRNA technology in COVID-19 vaccines but unfolded amid intense vaccine debates during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is crucial to gain insights into public discourse and reactions about potential new vaccines, and social media platforms such as X (formerly known as Twitter) provide important channels.

OBJECTIVE

Drawing from infodemiology and infoveillance research, this study investigated the patterns of public discourse and message-level drivers of user reactions on X regarding HIV vaccines by analyzing posts using machine learning algorithms. We examined how users used different post types to contribute to topics and valence and how these topics and valence influenced like and repost counts. In addition, the study identified salient aspects of HIV vaccines related to COVID-19 and prominent anti-HIV vaccine conspiracy theories through manual coding.

METHODS

We collected 36,424 English-language original posts about HIV vaccines on the X platform from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. We used topic modeling and sentiment analysis to uncover latent topics and valence, which were subsequently analyzed across post types in cross-tabulation analyses and integrated into linear regression models to predict user reactions, specifically likes and reposts. Furthermore, we manually coded the 1000 most engaged posts about HIV and COVID-19 to uncover salient aspects of HIV vaccines related to COVID-19 and the 1000 most engaged negative posts to identify prominent anti-HIV vaccine conspiracy theories.

RESULTS

Topic modeling revealed 3 topics: HIV and COVID-19, mRNA HIV vaccine trials, and HIV vaccine and immunity. HIV and COVID-19 underscored the connections between HIV vaccines and COVID-19 vaccines, as evidenced by subtopics about their reciprocal impact on development and various comparisons. The overall valence of the posts was marginally positive. Compared to self-composed posts initiating new conversations, there was a higher proportion of HIV and COVID-19-related and negative posts among quote posts and replies, which contribute to existing conversations. The topic of mRNA HIV vaccine trials, most evident in self-composed posts, increased repost counts. Positive valence increased like and repost counts. Prominent anti-HIV vaccine conspiracy theories often falsely linked HIV vaccines to concurrent COVID-19 and other HIV-related events.

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlight COVID-19 as a significant context for public discourse and reactions regarding HIV vaccines from both positive and negative perspectives. The success of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines shed a positive light on HIV vaccines. However, COVID-19 also situated HIV vaccines in a negative context, as observed in some anti-HIV vaccine conspiracy theories misleadingly connecting HIV vaccines with COVID-19. These findings have implications for public health communication strategies concerning HIV vaccines.

Examining COVID-19 Tweet Diffusion Using an Integrated Social Amplification of Risk and Issue-Attention Cycle Framework

Drawing upon the social amplification of risk (SARF) and the issue-attention cycle framework, we examined the amplification of COVID-19 risk-related tweets through (a) topics: key interests of discussion; (b) temperament: emotions of tweets; (c) topography (i.e., location); and (d) temporality (i.e., over time). We computationally analyzed 1,641,273 tweets, and conducted manual content analysis on a subset of 6,000 tweets to identify how topics, temperament, and topography of COVID-19 tweets were associated with risk amplification - retweet and favorite count - using negative binomial regression. We found 11 dominant COVID-19 topics-health impact, economic impact, reports of lockdowns, report of new cases, the need to stay home, coping with COVID-19, news about President Trump, government support, fight with COVID-19 by non-government entities, origins, and preventive measure in our corpus of tweets across the issue-attention cycle. The negative binomial regression results showed that at the pre-problem stage, topics on President Trump, speculation of origins, and initiatives to fight COVID-19 by non-government entities were most likely to be amplified, underscoring the inherent politicization of COVID-19 and erosion of trust in governments from the start of the pandemic. We also found that while tweets with negative emotions were consistently amplified throughout the issue-attention cycle, surprisingly tweets with positive emotions were amplified during the height of the pandemic - this counter-intuitive finding indicated signs of premature and misplaced optimism. Finally, our results showed that the locations of COVID-19 tweet amplification corresponded to the shifting COVID-19 hotspots across different continents across the issue-attention cycle. Theoretical and practical implications of risk amplification on social media are discussed.

A social media intervention for communicating vaccine safety in low- and middle-income countries: protocol for a pilot study

Vaccine safety is a concern that continues to drive hesitancy and refusal in populations in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). Communicating about vaccine safety is a strategy that can successfully change personal and community perceptions and behaviors toward vaccination. The COVID-19 infodemic emergency with the rapid rollout of new vaccines and new technology, demonstrated the need for good and effective vaccine safety communication. The Vaccine Safety Net (VSN), a WHO-led global network of websites that provide reliable information on vaccine safety offers the ideal environment for gathering web and social media analytics for measuring impact of vaccine safety messages. Its members work with a wide range of populations, in different geographic locations and at many levels including national, regional, and local. We propose to undertake a pilot study to evaluate the feasibility of implementing COVID-19 vaccine safety communications with VSN members working in LMICs and to assess the impact of communications on public knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions.

Increase the Number of Views and Shares of COVID-19 Videos: Content Relevance and Emotional Consistency with Virus Variant Topics

(1) Background: The coronavirus variants have posed serious challenges for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals selectively watch and forward videos that help them reduce the damage caused by the virus. Therefore, the factors influencing video viewing and sharing in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by virus variation must be explored. (2) Method: Based on a combination of uncertainty reduction theory and functional emotion theory, this paper designed hypotheses regarding how content relevance and emotional consistency affect video views and shares. We used the support vector machine (SVM) classification algorithm to measure the content relevance between videos and virus variant topics. We performed sentiment analysis of video text to evaluate the emotional consistency between videos and virus variant topics. Then, we used empirical analysis to build the model. (3) Results: The trained SVM classifier was effective in judging whether the video text was related to virus variant topics (F = 88.95%). The content relevance between COVID-19 videos and virus variant topics was generally low. The results showed that the higher the content relevance, the more views (IRR = 1.005, p = 0.017) and shares (IRR = 1.008, p = 0.009) the video received. Individuals were more willing to view (IRR = 1.625, p < 0.001) and share (IRR = 1.761, p < 0.001) COVID-19 videos with high emotional consistency with virus variant topics. (4) Conclusions: The results of empirical analysis showed that content relevance and emotional consistency between videos and virus variant topics significantly positively impacted video views and shares. The trained SVM classifier can support public health departments in monitoring and assessing the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study provides management advice while helping individuals reduce harm and inform next-step decisions.

COVID-19 risk perception framework of the public: an infodemic tool for future pandemics and epidemics

Understanding the risk perceptions of the public is central for risk communications and infodemic management during emergency and preparedness planning as people’s behavior depends on how they perceive the related risks. This qualitative study aimed to identify and describe factors related to COVID-19 risk perceptions of the public in Finland and to make this information readily available to those who communicate with the public during crises. The study is part of a larger project exploring crisis narratives through a mixed-methods approach. The study was based on a dataset of over 10,000 comments on the Facebook and Twitter posts of the Finnish Institute of Health and Welfare (THL) between March-May 2021. The data were analyzed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The study identified concepts linked with the pandemic risk perception that included knowledge, perceptions, personal experiences, trust, attitudes, and cultural values. The findings resulted in a framework of risk perceptions that can be used as taxonomy and a set of key concepts and keywords in social listening to monitor risk perception during future epidemics and pandemics.

A Google Trends Approach to Identify Distinct Diurnal and Day-of-Week Web-Based Search Patterns Related to Conjunctivitis and Other Common Eye Conditions: Infodemiology Study

Background

Studies suggest diurnal patterns of occurrence of some eye conditions. Leveraging new information sources such as web-based search data to learn more about such patterns could improve the understanding of patients’ eye-related conditions and well-being, better inform timing of clinical and remote eye care, and improve precision when targeting web-based public health campaigns toward underserved populations.

Objective

To investigate our hypothesis that the public is likely to consistently search about different ophthalmologic conditions at different hours of the day or days of week, we conducted an observational study using search data for terms related to ophthalmologic conditions such as conjunctivitis. We assessed whether search volumes reflected diurnal or day-of-week patterns and if those patterns were distinct from each other.

Methods

We designed a study to analyze and compare hourly search data for eye-related and control search terms, using time series regression models with trend and periodicity terms to remove outliers and then estimate diurnal effects. We planned a Google Trends setting, extracting data from 10 US states for the entire year of 2018. The exposure was internet search, and the participants were populations who searched through Google’s search engine using our chosen study terms. Our main outcome measures included cyclical hourly and day-of-week web-based search patterns. For statistical analyses, we considered P<.001 to be statistically significant.

Results

Distinct diurnal (P<.001 for all search terms) and day-of-week search patterns for eye-related terms were observed but with differing peak time periods and cyclic strengths. Some diurnal patterns represented those reported from prior clinical studies. Of the eye-related terms, “pink eye” showed the largest diurnal amplitude-to-mean ratios. Stronger signal was restricted to and peaked in mornings, and amplitude was higher on weekdays. By contrast, “dry eyes” had a higher amplitude diurnal pattern on weekends, with stronger signal occurring over a broader evening-to-morning period and peaking in early morning.

Conclusions

The frequency of web-based searches for various eye conditions can show cyclic patterns according to time of the day or week. Further studies to understand the reasons for these variations may help supplement the current clinical understanding of ophthalmologic symptom presentation and improve the timeliness of patient messaging and care interventions.

Infodemic Management Using Digital Information and Knowledge Cocreation to Address COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: Case Study From Ghana

BACKGROUND

Infodemic management is an integral part of pandemic management. Ghana Health Services (GHS) together with the UNICEF (United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund) Country Office have developed a systematic process that effectively identifies, analyzes, and responds to COVID-19 and vaccine-related misinformation in Ghana.

OBJECTIVE

This paper describes an infodemic management system workflow based on digital data collection, qualitative methodology, and human-centered systems to support the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Ghana with examples of system implementation.

METHODS

The infodemic management system was developed by the Health Promotion Division of the GHS and the UNICEF Country Office. It uses Talkwalker, a social listening software platform, to collect misinformation on the web. The methodology relies on qualitative data analysis and interpretation as well as knowledge cocreation to verify the findings.

RESULTS

A multi-sectoral National Misinformation Task Force was established to implement and oversee the misinformation management system. Two members of the task force were responsible for carrying out the analysis. They used Talkwalker to find posts that include the keywords related to COVID-19 vaccine-related discussions. They then assessed the significance of the posts on the basis of the engagement rate and potential reach of the posts, negative sentiments, and contextual factors. The process continues by identifying misinformation within the posts, rating the risk of identified misinformation posts, and developing proposed responses to address them. The results of the analysis are shared weekly with the Misinformation Task Force for their review and verification to ensure that the risk assessment and responses are feasible, practical, and acceptable in the context of Ghana.

CONCLUSIONS

The paper describes an infodemic management system workflow in Ghana based on qualitative data synthesis that can be used to manage real-time infodemic responses.

Social Listening to Enhance Access to Appropriate Pandemic Information Among Culturally Diverse Populations: Case Study From Finland

Background

Social listening, the process of monitoring and analyzing conversations to inform communication activities, is an essential component of infodemic management. It helps inform context-specific communication strategies that are culturally acceptable and appropriate for various subpopulations. Social listening is based on the notion that target audiences themselves can best define their own information needs and messages.

Objective

This study aimed to describe the development of systematic social listening training for crisis communication and community outreach during the COVID-19 pandemic through a series of web-based workshops and to report the experiences of the workshop participants implementing the projects.

Methods

A multidisciplinary team of experts developed a series of web-based training sessions for individuals responsible for community outreach or communication among linguistically diverse populations. The participants had no previous training in systematic data collection or monitoring. This training aimed to provide participants with sufficient knowledge and skills to develop a social listening system based on their specific needs and available resources. The workshop design took into consideration the pandemic context and focused on qualitative data collection. Information on the experiences of the participants in the training was gathered based on participant feedback and their assignments and through in-depth interviews with each team.

Results

A series of 6 web-based workshops was conducted between May and September 2021. The workshops followed a systematic approach to social listening and included listening to web-based and offline sources; rapid qualitative analysis and synthesis; and developing communication recommendations, messages, and products. Follow-up meetings were organized between the workshops during which participants could share their achievements and challenges. Approximately 67% (4/6) of the participating teams established social listening systems by the end of the training. The teams tailored the knowledge provided during the training to their specific needs. As a result, the social systems developed by the teams had slightly different structures, target audiences, and aims. All resulting social listening systems followed the taught key principles of systematic social listening to collect and analyze data and used these new insights for further development of communication strategies.

Conclusions

This paper describes an infodemic management system and workflow based on qualitative inquiry and adapted to local priorities and resources. The implementation of these projects resulted in content development for targeted risk communication, addressing linguistically diverse populations. These systems can be adapted for future epidemics and pandemics.

Investigating the Public Sentiment in Major Public Emergencies Through the Complex Networks Method: A Case Study of COVID-19 Epidemic

The main purpose of this study is to investigate what topic indicators correlate with public sentiment during “coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic” and which indicators control the complex networks of the topic indicators. We obtained 68,098 Weibo, categorized them into 11 topic indicators, and grouped these indicators into three dimensions. Then, we constructed the complex networks model of Weibo's topics and examined the key indicators affecting the public's sentiment during the major public emergency. The results showed that “positive emotion” is positively correlated with “recordings of epidemic” and “foreign comparisons,” while “negative emotion” is negatively correlated with “government image,” “recordings of epidemic,” and “asking for help online.” In addition, the two vertexes of “recordings of epidemic” and “foreign comparisons” are the most important “bridges” which connect the government and the public. The “recordings of epidemic” is the main connection “hub” between the government and the media. In other words, the “recordings of epidemic” is the central topic indicator that controls the entire topic network. In conclusion, the government should publish the advance of the events through official media on time and transparent way and create a platform where everyone can speak directly to the government for advice and assistance during a major public emergency in the future.

Sustained Reductions in Online Search Interest for Communicable Eye and Other Conditions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Infodemiology Study

Background

In a prior study at the start of the pandemic, we reported reduced numbers of Google searches for the term “conjunctivitis” in the United States in March and April 2020 compared with prior years. As one explanation, we conjectured that reduced information-seeking may have resulted from social distancing reducing contagious conjunctivitis cases. Here, after 1 year of continued implementation of social distancing, we asked if there have been persistent reductions in searches for “conjunctivitis,” and similarly for other communicable disease terms, compared to control terms.

Objective

The aim of this study was to determine if reduction in searches in the United States for terms related to conjunctivitis and other common communicable diseases occurred in the spring-winter season of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to compare this outcome to searches for terms representing noncommunicable conditions, COVID-19, and to seasonality.

Methods

Weekly relative search frequency volume data from Google Trends for 68 search terms in English for the United States were obtained for the weeks of March 2011 through February 2021. Terms were classified a priori as 16 terms related to COVID-19, 29 terms representing communicable conditions, and 23 terms representing control noncommunicable conditions. To reduce bias, all analyses were performed while masked to term names, classifications, and locations. To test for the significance of changes during the pandemic, we detrended and compared postpandemic values to those expected based on prepandemic trends, per season, computing one- and two-sided P values. We then compared these P values between term groups using Wilcoxon rank-sum and Fisher exact tests to assess if non-COVID-19 terms representing communicable diseases were more likely to show significant reductions in searches in 2020-2021 than terms not representing such diseases. We also assessed any relationship between a term’s seasonality and a reduced search trend for the term in 2020-2021 seasons. P values were subjected to false discovery rate correction prior to reporting. Data were then unmasked.

Results

Terms representing conjunctivitis and other communicable conditions showed a sustained reduced search trend in the first 4 seasons of the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic compared to prior years. In comparison, the search for noncommunicable condition terms was significantly less reduced (Wilcoxon and Fisher exact tests, P<.001; summer, autumn, winter). A significant correlation was also found between reduced search for a term in 2020-2021 and seasonality of that term (Theil-Sen, P<.001; summer, autumn, winter). Searches for COVID-19–related conditions were significantly elevated compared to those in prior years, and searches for influenza-related terms were significantly lower than those for prior years in winter 2020-2021 (P<.001).

Conclusions

We demonstrate the low-cost and unbiased use of online search data to study how a wide range of conditions may be affected by large-scale interventions or events such as social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings support emerging clinical evidence implicating social distancing and the COVID-19 pandemic in the reduction of communicable disease and on ocular conditions.

A Hybrid Model with Spherical Fuzzy-AHP, PLS-SEM and ANN to Predict Vaccination Intention against COVID-19

This study aims to identify the key factors affecting individuals’ behavioral vaccination intention against COVID-19 in Vietnam through an online questionnaire survey. Differing from previous studies, a novel three-staged approach combining Spherical Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (SF-AHP), Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is proposed. Five factors associated with individuals’ behavioral vaccination intention (INT) based on 15 experts’ opinions are considered in SF-AHP analysis, including Perceived Severity of COVID-19 (PSC), Perceived COVID-19 vaccines (PVC), Trust in government intervention strategies (TRS), Social Influence (SOI), and Social media (SOM). First, the results of SF-AHP indicated that all proposed factors correlate with INT. Second, the data of 474 valid respondents were collected and analyzed using PLS-SEM. The PLS-SEM results reported that INT was directly influenced by PVC and TRS. In contrast, SOI had no direct effect on INT. Further, PSC and SOM moderated the relationship between PVC, TRS and INT, respectively. The ANN was deployed to validate the previous stages and found that the best predictors of COVID-19 vaccination intention were PVC, TRS, and SOM. These results were consistent with the SF-AHP and PLS-SEM models. This research provides an innovative new approach employing quantitative and qualitative techniques to understand individuals’ vaccination intention during the global pandemic. Furthermore, the proposed method can be used and expanded to assess the perceived efficacy of COVID-19 measures in other nations currently battling the COVID-19 outbreak.