Stakeholder Perspectives on an Inpatient Hypoglycemia Informatics Alert: Mixed Methods Study

Development and Validation of Inpatient Hypoglycemia Models Centered Around the Insulin Ordering Process

BACKGROUND

The insulin ordering process is an opportunity to provide clinicians with hypoglycemia risk predictions, but few hypoglycemia models centered around the insulin ordering process exist.

METHODS

We used data on adult patients, admitted in 2019 to non-ICU floors of a large teaching hospital, who had orders for subcutaneous insulin. Our outcome was hypoglycemia, defined as a blood glucose (BG) <70 mg/dL within 24 hours after ordering insulin. We trained and evaluated models to predict hypoglycemia at the time of placing an insulin order, using logistic regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). We compared performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) and precision-recall curves. We determined recall at our goal precision of 0.30.

RESULTS

Of 21 052 included insulin orders, 1839 (9%) were followed by a hypoglycemic event within 24 hours. Logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost models had AUCs of 0.81, 0.80, and 0.79, and recall of 0.44, 0.49, and 0.32, respectively. The most significant predictor was the lowest BG value in the 24 hours preceding the order. Predictors related to the insulin order being placed at the time of the prediction were useful to the model but less important than the patient's history of BG values over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypoglycemia within the next 24 hours can be predicted at the time an insulin order is placed, providing an opportunity to integrate decision support into the medication ordering process to make insulin therapy safer.

Artificial Intelligence for Predicting and Diagnosing Complications of Diabetes

Artificial intelligence can use real-world data to create models capable of making predictions and medical diagnosis for diabetes and its complications. The aim of this commentary article is to provide a general perspective and present recent advances on how artificial intelligence can be applied to improve the prediction and diagnosis of six significant complications of diabetes including (1) gestational diabetes, (2) hypoglycemia in the hospital, (3) diabetic retinopathy, (4) diabetic foot ulcers, (5) diabetic peripheral neuropathy, and (6) diabetic nephropathy.