An Assessment of the Predictive Performance of Current Machine Learning-Based Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models: Systematic Review

Artificial Intelligence for Breast Cancer Risk Assessment

Breast cancer risk prediction models based on common clinical risk factors are used to identify women eligible for high-risk screening and prevention. Unfortunately, these models have only modest discriminatory accuracy with disparities in performance in underrepresented race and ethnicity groups. The field of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning are rapidly advancing the field of breast cancer risk prediction with the development of mammography-based AI breast cancer risk models. Early studies suggest mammography-based AI risk models may perform better than traditional risk factor-based models with more equitable performance.

The construction, validation and promotion of the nomogram prognosis prediction model of UCEC, and the experimental verification of the expression and knockdown of the key gene GPX4

Background

Adequate prognostic prediction of Uterine Corpus Endometrial Carcinoma (UCEC) is crucial for informing clinical decision-making. However, there is a scarcity of research on the utilization of a nomogram prognostic evaluation model that incorporates pyroptosis-related genes (PRGs) in UCEC.

Methods

By analyzing data from UCEC patients in the TCGA database, four PRGs associated with prognosis were identified. Subsequently, a "risk score" was developed using these four PRGs and LASSO. Ordinary and web-based dynamic nomogram prognosis prediction models were constructed. The discrimination, calibration, clinical benefit, and promotional value of the selected GPX4 were validated. The expression level of GPX4 in UCEC cell lines was subsequently verified. The effects of GPX4 knock-down on the malignant biological behavior of UCEC cells were assessed.

Results

Four key PRGs and a "risk score" were identified, with the "risk score" calculated as (-0.4323) * GPX4 + (0.2385) * GSDME + (0.0525) * NLRP2 + (-0.3299) * NOD2. The nomogram prognosis prediction model, incorporating the "risk score," "age," and "FIGO stage," demonstrated moderate predictive performance (AUC >0.7), good calibration, and clinical significance for 1, 3, and 5-year survival. The web-based dynamic nomogram demonstrated significant promotional value (https://shibaolu.shinyapps.io/DynamicNomogramForUCEC/). UCEC cells exhibited abnormally elevated expression of GPX4, and the knockdown of GPX4 effectively suppressed malignant biological activities, including proliferation and migration, while inducing apoptosis. The findings from tumorigenic experiments conducted on nude mice further validated the results obtained from cellular experiments.

Conclusion

Following validation, the nomogram prognosis prediction model, which relies on four pivotal PRGs, demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in forecasting the precise probability of prognosis for patients with UCEC. Additionally, the web-based dynamic nomogram exhibited considerable potential for promotion. Notably, the key gene GPX4 exhibited characteristics of a potential oncogene in UCEC, as it facilitated malignant biological behavior and impeded apoptosis.

Understanding the contribution of lifestyle in breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review of models applicable to Europe

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is a significant health concern among European women, with the highest prevalence rates among all cancers. Existing BC prediction models account for major risks such as hereditary, hormonal and reproductive factors, but research suggests that adherence to a healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of developing BC to some extent. Understanding the influence and predictive role of lifestyle variables in current risk prediction models could help identify actionable, modifiable, targets among high-risk population groups.

PURPOSE

To systematically review population-based BC risk prediction models applicable to European populations and identify lifestyle predictors and their corresponding parameter values for a better understanding of their relative contribution to the prediction of incident BC.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from January 2000 to August 2021. Risk prediction models were included if (i) developed and/or validated in adult cancer-free women in Europe, (ii) based on easily ascertained information, and (iii) reported models' final predictors. To investigate further the comparability of lifestyle predictors across models, estimates were standardised into risk ratios and visualised using forest plots.

RESULTS

From a total of 49 studies, 33 models were developed and 22 different existing models, mostly from Gail (22 studies) and Tyrer-Cuzick and co-workers (12 studies) were validated or modified for European populations. Family history of BC was the most frequently included predictor (31 models), while body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption (26 and 21 models, respectively) were the lifestyle predictors most often included, followed by smoking and physical activity (7 and 6 models respectively). Overall, for lifestyle predictors, their modest predictive contribution was greater for riskier lifestyle levels, though highly variable model estimates across different models.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the increasing BC incidence rates in Europe, risk models utilising readily available risk factors could greatly aid in widening the population coverage of screening efforts, while the addition of lifestyle factors could help improving model performance and serve as intervention targets of prevention programmes.

Artificial Intelligence in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Pancreatic Cystic Lesions and Adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic cancer is projected to become the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States by 2030. This is in part due to the paucity of reliable screening and diagnostic options for early detection. Amongst known pre-malignant pancreatic lesions, pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN) and intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are the most prevalent. The current standard of care for the diagnosis and classification of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) involves cross-sectional imaging studies and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and, when indicated, EUS-guided fine needle aspiration and cyst fluid analysis. However, this is suboptimal for the identification and risk stratification of PCLs, with accuracy of only 65-75% for detecting mucinous PCLs. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a promising tool that has been applied to improve accuracy in screening for solid tumors, including breast, lung, cervical, and colon cancer. More recently, it has shown promise in diagnosing pancreatic cancer by identifying high-risk populations, risk-stratifying premalignant lesions, and predicting the progression of IPMNs to adenocarcinoma. This review summarizes the available literature on artificial intelligence in the screening and prognostication of precancerous lesions in the pancreas, and streamlining the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer.