The future burden of type 2 diabetes in Belgium: a microsimulation model

OBJECTIVE

To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030.

METHODS

This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0-80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities.

RESULTS

A total of 6722 [95% UI 3421, 11,583] new cases of type 2 diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants are expected between 2018 and 2030 in Belgium, representing a 32.8% and 19.3% increase in T2D prevalence rate and DALYs rate, respectively. While T2D burden remained highest for lower-education subgroups across all three Belgian regions, the highest increases in incidence and prevalence rates by 2030 are observed for women in general, and particularly among Flemish women reporting higher-education levels with a 114.5% and 44.6% increase in prevalence and DALYs rates, respectively. Existing age- and education-related inequalities will remain apparent in 2030 across all three regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected increase in the burden of T2D in Belgium highlights the urgent need for primary and secondary preventive strategies. While emphasis should be placed on the lower-education groups, it is also crucial to reinforce strategies for people of higher socioeconomic status as the burden of T2D is expected to increase significantly in this population segment.

Dynamics of the double burden of malnutrition in Guatemala: a secondary data analysis of the demographic and health surveys from 1998-2015

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the prevalence and time trends of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) in Guatemala and explored its occurrence based on socio-demographic factors.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a secondary data analysis using information from four Demographic and Health Surveys covering the period 1998-2015.

METHODS

The unit of analysis was the household within which information was gathered from women 18-49 years and their children, 6-59 months. The main outcome was the prevalence of any DBM in the household (co-existence of undernutrition and overnutrition in a woman, her children or both). We estimated the prevalence of any DBM by survey and analysed time trends. Stepwise logistic regression was used to explore the occurrence of DBM and socio-demographic factors.

RESULTS

We analysed 39,749 households across all surveys. The prevalence of any DBM was 25.3% (95%CI: 22.1-28.7) in 1998-99, 23.8% (22.0-25.8) in 2002, 25.9% (24.3-27.5) in 2008-09 and 24.2% (22.9-25.5) in 2014-15, with no significant change over time (P = 0.782). Characteristics associated with lower odds of any DBM were rural residence, female-headed household, wealth and women's secondary education. Higher odds were seen for households with electricity, women >25y, indigenous and with >2 children.

CONCLUSION

Our findings revealed that a quarter of Guatemala's households suffer from DBM, which has remained unchanged for 17 years. Interventions should prioritise urban areas, households of lower socio-economic status and those less educated. To increase awareness of policymakers of this pressing public health concern, further research on DBM could be strengthened by prospective study designs, integrating all household members and expanding the types of malnutrition.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients across epidemic waves in Spain: An unCoVer analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact in population health worldwide, and particularly in people with pre-existing chronic diseases. Early risk identification and stratification is essential to reduce the impact of future outbreaks of pandemic potential. This study aimed to comprehensively examine factors associated with COVID-19 mortality across the pandemic waves in Spain.

METHODS

A retrospective study analyzed the characteristics of 13,974 patients admitted to Spanish hospitals due to SARS-CoV-2 infection from 2020-01-28 to 2022-12-31. The demographic and clinical features of patients during hospitalization on each pandemic waves were analyzed.

MAIN FINDINGS

The findings highlight the heterogeneity of patient characteristics, comorbidities and outcomes, across the waves. The high prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases (53.9%) among COVID-19 patients emphasizes the importance of controlling these risk factors to prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, the study associate hospital mortality with factors such as advanced age and comorbidities. The decline in mortality after the 4th wave indicates potential influences like vaccination, viral adaptation, or improved treatments. Notably, dementia and cancer metastases emerge as critical factors linked to higher mortality, highlighting the importance of addressing these conditions in COVID-19 management and preparing for future challenges.

Quantifying Overlapping Forms of Malnutrition Across Latin America: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of Prevalence Estimates

Estimating the prevalence of double burden of malnutrition (DBM) is challenging in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region where various DBM typologies (e.g., obesity and stunting) are heterogeneous and estimates are scattered across literature This study aimed to assess the prevalence of DBM typologies in the LAC region. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify studies on the prevalence of DBM published between 1 January, 2000, and 23 January, 2023. Outcomes were the prevalence of the identified DBM typologies at the household, individual, or across life course levels. Random-effect meta-analyses of proportions were used to estimate pooled period prevalence for all outcomes. Heterogeneity was explored using meta-regressions. From 754 records identified, 60 (8%) studies were eligible, with a median of 4379 individuals. Studies reported data from 27 LAC countries collected between 1988 and 2017. Most studies used nationally representative surveys (68%) and scored as low risk of bias (70%). We identified 17 DBM typologies for which 360 estimates were analyzed. The prevalence of the identified DBM typologies ranged between 0% and 24%, with the DBM typology of "adult with overweight and child with anemia" having the highest prevalence (24.3%; 95% CI: 18.8%, 30.2%). The most frequently reported DBM typology was "adult with overweight and child with stunting," with a prevalence of 8.5% (95% CI: 7.7, 9.3). All prevalences carried large heterogeneity (I2>90%), modestly explained by subregions and countries. DBM across the life course could not be estimated owing to insufficient estimates. In conclusion, using available data, our study suggests that the burden of DBM in the LAC region ranges between 0% and 24%. In the most frequent DBM typologies, overweight was a common contributor. Substantial progress can be made in curbing the burden of DBM in the LAC region through strategies addressing excess weight within these population groups. This study was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42023406755.

The collaborative framework for the management of tuberculosis and type 2 diabetes syndemic in low- and middle-income countries: a rapid review

INTRODUCTION

Given the absence of international guidelines on the joint management and control of tuberculosis (TB) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union) launched in 2011 a policy framework to address the growing syndemic burden of TB-T2D. This review aimed at mapping the available evidence on the implementation of the Union-WHO Framework, explicitly, or bi-directional TB-T2D health programs as an initiative for co-management in patients in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

METHODS

A rapid review was performed based on a systematic search in PubMed and Web of Science electronic databases for peer-reviewed articles on The Union-WHO Framework and bi-directional interventions of TB and T2D in LMIC. The search was restricted to English language articles and from 01/08/2011 to 20/05/2022.

RESULTS

A total of 24 articles from 16 LMIC met the inclusion criteria. Four described the implementation of The Union-WHO Framework and 20 on the bi-directional interventions of TB and T2D. Bi-directional activities were found valuable, feasible and effective following the Union-WHO recommendations. Limited knowledge and awareness on TB-T2D comorbidity was identified as one of the barriers to ensure a functional and effective integration of services.

CONCLUSIONS

This review revealed that it is valuable, feasible and effective to implement bi-directional TB and T2D activities (screening and management) according to the Union-WHO Framework recommendations, especially in countries that face TB-T2D syndemic. Additionally, it was apparent that gaps still exist in research aimed at providing evidence of costs to implement collaborative activities. There is need for TB and T2D services integration that should be done through the well-stablished TB programme. This integration of two vertical programmes, could ensure patient-centeredness, continuum of care and ultimately contribute for health systems strengthening.

The impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages on diabetes: a critical review

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.

Impact of domiciliary administration of NSAIDs on COVID-19 hospital outcomes: an unCoVer analysis

Background: Effective domiciliary treatment can be useful in the early phase of COVID-19 to limit disease progression, and pressure on hospitals. There are discrepant data on the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim of this study is to evaluate whether the clinical outcome of patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 is influenced by domiciliary treatment with NSAIDs. Secondary objective was to explore the association between other patient characteristics/therapies and outcome. Methods: A large dataset of COVID-19 patients was created in the context of a European Union-funded project (unCoVer). The primary outcome was explored using a study level random effects meta-analysis for binary (multivariate logistic regression models) outcomes adjusted for selected factors, including demographics and other comorbidities. Results: 218 out of 1,144 patients reported use of NSAIDs before admission. No association between NSAIDs use and clinical outcome was found (unadj. OR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.68-1.38). The model showed an independent upward risk of death with increasing age (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.05-1.07) and male sex (1.36; 95% CI 1.04-1.76). Conclusion: In our study, the domiciliary use of NSAIDs did not show association with clinical outcome in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Older ages and male sex were associated to an increased risk of death.

Understanding the contribution of lifestyle in breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review of models applicable to Europe

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is a significant health concern among European women, with the highest prevalence rates among all cancers. Existing BC prediction models account for major risks such as hereditary, hormonal and reproductive factors, but research suggests that adherence to a healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of developing BC to some extent. Understanding the influence and predictive role of lifestyle variables in current risk prediction models could help identify actionable, modifiable, targets among high-risk population groups.

PURPOSE

To systematically review population-based BC risk prediction models applicable to European populations and identify lifestyle predictors and their corresponding parameter values for a better understanding of their relative contribution to the prediction of incident BC.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from January 2000 to August 2021. Risk prediction models were included if (i) developed and/or validated in adult cancer-free women in Europe, (ii) based on easily ascertained information, and (iii) reported models' final predictors. To investigate further the comparability of lifestyle predictors across models, estimates were standardised into risk ratios and visualised using forest plots.

RESULTS

From a total of 49 studies, 33 models were developed and 22 different existing models, mostly from Gail (22 studies) and Tyrer-Cuzick and co-workers (12 studies) were validated or modified for European populations. Family history of BC was the most frequently included predictor (31 models), while body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption (26 and 21 models, respectively) were the lifestyle predictors most often included, followed by smoking and physical activity (7 and 6 models respectively). Overall, for lifestyle predictors, their modest predictive contribution was greater for riskier lifestyle levels, though highly variable model estimates across different models.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the increasing BC incidence rates in Europe, risk models utilising readily available risk factors could greatly aid in widening the population coverage of screening efforts, while the addition of lifestyle factors could help improving model performance and serve as intervention targets of prevention programmes.

Comparing self-reported health interview survey and pharmacy billing data in determining the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Administrative and health surveys are used in monitoring key health indicators in a population. This study investigated the agreement between self-reported disease status from the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) and pharmaceutical insurance claims extracted from the Belgian Compulsory Health Insurance (BCHI) in ascertaining the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia.

METHODS

Linkage was made between the BHIS 2018 and the BCHI 2018, from which chronic condition was ascertained using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification and defined daily dose. The data sources were compared using estimates of disease prevalence and various measures of agreement and validity. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for each chronic condition to identify the factors associated to the agreement between the two data sources.

RESULTS

The prevalence estimates computed from the BCHI and the self-reported disease definition in BHIS, respectively, are 5.8% and 5.9% diabetes cases, 24.6% and 17.6% hypertension cases, and 16.2% and 18.1% of hypercholesterolemia cases. The overall agreement and kappa coefficient between the BCHI and the self-reported disease status is highest for diabetes and is equivalent to 97.6% and 0.80, respectively. The disagreement between the two data sources in ascertaining diabetes is associated with multimorbidity and older age categories.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the capability of pharmacy billing data in ascertaining and monitoring diabetes in the Belgian population. More studies are needed to assess the applicability of pharmacy claims in ascertaining other chronic conditions and to evaluate the performance of other administrative data such as hospital records containing diagnostic codes.

Burden of disease among older adults in Europe-trends in mortality and disability, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

It is important to understand the effects of population ageing on disease burden and explore conditions that drive poor health in later life to prevent or manage these. We examined the development of disease burden and its components for major disease groups among older adults in Europe over the last 30 years.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, we analyzed burden of disease trends between 1990 and 2019 measured by years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among older adults (65+ years) in Western, Central and Eastern Europe using cause groups for diseases and injuries.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the crude numbers of DALYs for all causes increased substantially among older Western Europeans. In Eastern Europe, the absolute DALYs also increased from 1990 to 2005 but then decreased between 2006 and 2013. However, DALY rates declined for all European regions over time, with large differences in the magnitude by region and gender. Changes in the YLL rate were mainly driven by the contribution of cardiovascular diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found an increased overall absolute disease burden among older Europeans between 1990 and 2019. The demographic change that has taken place in Eastern European countries implies a potential problem of directed resource allocation to the health care sector. Furthermore, the findings highlight the potential health gains through directing resources to health promotion and treatment to reduce YLDs and to prevent YLLs, primarily from cardiovascular diseases.

Mapping the nutritional value of diets across Europe according to the Nutri-Score front-of-pack label

Background

Front-of-pack labels, such as Nutri-Score, aim to offer clear information on the overall nutritional quality of foods and beverages to consumers, allowing them to make healthier food choices. Using the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database, the present study aims to map out European food consumption patterns by applying the Nutri-Score as a benchmark for nutritional value.

Methods

Country-specific food consumption data, collected by multiple 24-h dietary recalls or food records available from EFSA, were linked to the Dutch Food Composition Database (NEVO). Foods and beverages consumed by adolescents (10-17 years), adults (18-64 years), and the elderly (65-74 years) were graded following the modified Food Standard Agency Nutrient Profiling System (FSAm-NPS) and classified according to Nutri-Score grading, from A to E. Subsequently, a dietary index score (FSAm-NPS-DI) was calculated for each country-specific diet by age-groups and sex as an energy-weighted mean of the FSAm-NPS score of all foods and beverages consumed, with lower scores for a diet of greater overall nutritional quality.

Results

On average, the daily energy intake of adults across the European countries studied is distributed in 27.6% of A-, 12.9% of B-, 17% of C-, 30.0% of D-, and 12.5% of E-classified foods and beverages. This energy distribution, according to the Nutri-Score, corresponded to a median FSAm-NPS-DI score of 6.34 (interquartile range: 5.92, 7.19). For both adult males and females, Estonia reported the highest energy share from A-classified products, scoring the lowest on the FSAm-NPS-DI. On the other hand, Latvia reported the highest energy share from E-classified products, along with the highest FSAm-NPS-DI. Females and the elderly group reported, in general, a greater energy share from A- and a lower share from E-classified products, and had the lowest FSAm-NPS-DI scores. No sex-related difference was observed for adolescents whose share of energy was predominantly from A- and D-classified products, such as for adults and the elderly.

Conclusion

Our analyses leveraging the secondary use of country-specific databases on dietary intakes found considerable variation in the nutritional value of European diets, with an overall agreement across all countries on a modestly healthier dietary profile for the elderly and among females.

Cardiometabolic Profile and Outcomes in Migrant Populations: A Review of Comparative Evidence from Migrants in Europe in Relation to Their Country of Origin

BACKGROUND

The potential effect of migration on increasing cardiometabolic risk factors remains partially understood. We aim to synthesize the evidence comparing the burden of diabetes and adiposity of migrating populations in Europe, with that of their country of origin.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping literature review. We searched PubMed for studies investigating the effect of migration on diabetes or adiposity outcomes among migrants in countries from the European Union or the United Kingdom compared to the population in the country of origin. Studies were qualitatively synthesized in evidence tables and the demographic characteristics, study design, risk factors investigated, and outcomes were quantitatively summarized using measures of central tendency.

FINDINGS

Of 1175 abstracts retrieved, 28 studies were eligible. Most of the studies included migrating populations residing in Western (50%), Northern (39%), and Southern Europe (11%) originating from countries in Africa (46%), Asia (29%), or European overseas (25%) regions of which 85% were classified as low-middle-income countries. Most of the studies (93%) had a cross-sectional design. The median number of individuals in the country of origin was greater [917; IQR: 231-1378] than in the receiving country [249; 150-883]. Thirty-five percent of the studies investigated migration as an independent risk factor, whereas 28% contextualized migration into lifestyle changes. The majority of the studies (57%) reported both diabetes and adiposity outcomes. Within the limited evidence available, controversial results were found as some studies showed poorer outcomes for the migrating populations, while others showed the opposite.

CONCLUSION

Studies assessing the impact of migration by comparing migrating populations and the population of origin on diabetes and adiposity outcomes have gained interest. So far, the available evidence is highly heterogeneous to inform public health strategies in the receiving countries. We recommend further research including a more robust methodology and in-depth characterization of the migrant populations.

Predicting COVID-19 progression in hospitalized patients in Belgium from a multi-state model

Objectives

To adopt a multi-state risk prediction model for critical disease/mortality outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients using nationwide COVID-19 hospital surveillance data in Belgium.

Materials and methods

Information on 44,659 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between March 2020 and June 2021 with complete data on disease outcomes and candidate predictors was used to adopt a multi-state, multivariate Cox model to predict patients' probability of recovery, critical [transfer to intensive care units (ICU)] or fatal outcomes during hospital stay.

Results

Median length of hospital stay was 9 days (interquartile range: 5-14). After admission, approximately 82% of the COVID-19 patients were discharged alive, 15% of patients were admitted to ICU, and 15% died in the hospital. The main predictors of an increased probability for recovery were younger age, and to a lesser extent, a lower number of prevalent comorbidities. A patient's transition to ICU or in-hospital death had in common the following predictors: high levels of c-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), reporting lower respiratory complaints and male sex. Additionally predictors for a transfer to ICU included middle-age, obesity and reporting loss of appetite and staying at a university hospital, while advanced age and a higher number of prevalent comorbidities for in-hospital death. After ICU, younger age and low levels of CRP and LDH were the main predictors for recovery, while in-hospital death was predicted by advanced age and concurrent comorbidities.

Conclusion

As one of the very few, a multi-state model was adopted to identify key factors predicting COVID-19 progression to critical disease, and recovery or death.

The effectiveness of lifestyle interventions on type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes incidence and cardiometabolic outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

As lifestyle modification offers a unique strategy to prevent diabetes, we evaluated the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in the prevention of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

We did a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library for randomised controlled trials published in English, Spanish, French, and Portuguese between 1 January 2000 and 15 June 2022, evaluating multi-target and multi-component lifestyle interventions in at-risk populations conducted in LMICs. The main outcomes were incidence of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes, and indicators of glycaemic control. We assessed the methodological quality of the studies using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Inverse-variance random-effects meta-analyses estimated the overall effect sizes. Sources of heterogeneity and study bias were evaluated. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021279174).

FINDINGS

From 14 330 abstracts, 48 (0·3%) studies with 50 interventions were eligible of which 56% were conducted in lower-middle-income countries, 44% in upper-middle, and none in low-income. 54% of the studies were assessed as moderate risk of bias and 14% as high risk. A median of 246 (IQR 137-511) individuals participated in the interventions with a median duration of 6 (3-12) months. Lifestyle interventions decreased the incidence risk ratio of type 2 diabetes by 25% (0·75 [95% CI 0·61 to 0·91]), and reduced the levels of HbA1c by 0·15% [-0·25 to -0·05], fasting plasma glucose by 3·44 mg/dL [-4·72 to -2·17], and 2-hr glucose tolerance by 4·18 mg/dL [-7·35 to -1·02]. No publication bias was suggested for these outcomes. High levels of heterogeneity (I²≥ 81%) were found in most meta-analyses. Exploration using meta-regressions could not identify any explanatory variable, except for fasting glucose for which the quality score of the articles seems to be an effect modifier decreasing slightly the heterogeneity (72%) in the low risk of bias pooled estimate. The effect on gestational diabetes could not be evaluated due to the scarcity of available studies.

INTERPRETATION

Comprehensive lifestyle interventions are effective strategies to prevent type 2 diabetes among at-risk populations in LMICs. The heterogeneity identified in our results should be considered when using these interventions to address the onset of type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

None.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021

Importance

Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID).

Objective

To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022.

Exposures

Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age.

Results

A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Associations of pre-existing comorbidities and COVID-19 in-hospital mortality: an unCoVer analyses

Background

Accumulated evidence on risk factors for adverse COVID-19 outcomes revealed that old age and male sex are main associates, next to pre-existing comorbidities, as analysed from scattered single cohorts of hospitalised COVID-19 patients of accessible electronic medical records. Hence, evidence from federated analyses is called for to provide a more comprehensive and robust analyses of risk factors.

Methods

Using the unCoVer network, i.e., a research platform of 29 partners for the expert use of patient data as routinely gathered in real-world healthcare settings, present analyses restricted to available data of four hospitals from Spain, Slovakia, Romania and Bosnia and Herzegovina covering 8,287 hospitalised COVID-19 patients. In-hospital death after COVID-19 diagnosis was examined in relation to common pre-existing comorbidities using virtual pooling of logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex.

Results

Patients were on average 60.1 (± 20.9) years, 50.7% were male, almost half (43.3%) had at least one pre-existing comorbidity (17.4% having obesity, 21.9% hypertension, 18.0% diabetes and 13.7% cardiovascular diseases (CVD)), and 12.6% died during hospitalisation. Patients with comorbidities had a higher risk of mortality that was increasing with the number of comorbidities: from a virtual pooled odds ratio of 1.16 (95%CI: 0.96, 1.40) for one vs none to 1.30 (1.04, 1.64) and 2.14 (1.64, 2.79) for two and three or more comorbidities, respectively. Of the comorbidities, highest risk was seen for CVD (1.68; 1.40, 2.01), followed by hypertension (1.40; 1.19, 1.64) and diabetes (1.27; 1.07, 1.50), and the lowest for obesity (1.13; 0.94, 1.37).

Conclusions

By federated analyses, this study confirmed that the number of comorbidities was a strong risk factor for in-hospital death after COVID-19, in particular CVD. The unCoVer platform pursues using scattered data sources by innovative computational resources and integrated information for enhanced impact.

Key messages

Comparing health insurance and survey data in estimating prevalence of chronic diseases

Background

Population prevalence of chronic conditions can be estimated from national health surveys and from administrative data sources such as insurance records. This study evaluated the agreement between the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) and the Belgian compulsory health insurance data (BCHI) in ascertaining chronic hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes in Belgium.

Methods

The most recent cycle of BHIS (2018) provided the self-reported prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia among a representative sample of Belgian adults. For BCHI, the chronic conditions were attributed for every individual in the BHIS reviewing the medication prescription records identified using the ATC/DDD system. These two data sources were linked through unique identifiers by STATBEL. Disease prevalence, measures of agreement, and measures of concordance were estimated. Logistic regression was performed to determine the factors affecting agreement between BHIS and BCHI’s disease classifications.

Results

Data linkage was done for 9,753 individuals aged 15 years and older. From the sample, BHIS and BCHI respectively identified 5.9% and 5.6% diabetes cases, 18% and 24% of hypertension cases, and 18% and 16% of hypercholesterolemia cases. The kappa coefficient between BCHI and self-reported diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia was 0.79, 0.59, and 0.49, respectively. Gender, age, and subjective health significantly affected the agreement in chronic condition classification between BHIS and BCHI.

Conclusions

Data on reimbursed drugs is a potential alternative method in the surveillance of chronic diabetes. This procedure could be used in estimating disease prevalence but further validation is needed to evaluate its applicability and bias in other chronic conditions.

Key messages

• BCHI is a possible alternative data source for the surveillance of diabetes in the population.

• BCHI overestimated hypertension and underestimated hypercholesterolemia prevalence.

Federated learning for describing COVID-19 patients and hospital outcomes: An unCoVer analysis

Background

Since the onset of the pandemic, the unCoVer network has been identifying real-world data from EMR of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 across countries. These heterogeneous data are integrated into a multi-user data repository operated through Opal/DataSHIELD, an interoperable open-source server application, providing privacy-preserving access to individual-level information for federated data analyses.

Methods

unCoVer’s federated data platform provided access to EMR collected between 02/2020 - 04/2022 from 6 hospitals in Bosnia and Herzegovina (1), Romania (2), Spain (2), and Turkey (1) for a total of 14,236 patients. Demographics, and co-morbidities at admission, length of hospital stay and intensive care (ICU) needs, are presented according to the patients’ status at discharge.

Results

A total of 11,248 (79.0%) of all patients reviewed recovered from COVID-19 after an average 11.5 (SD 10.8) days hospitalised, with only 4.09% of patients needing ICU. A smaller proportion of patients were transferred (5.93%), and 2143 (15.1%) were considered in-hospital deaths after an average 11.6 (SD 10.5) days in the hospital where most (81.2%) needed ICU. Recovered patients had a mean age of 57.7 (SD 16.3) years old, and gender neutral (51.2% men), in contrast to deceased patients that were 74.2 (SD 12.4) years old (59.7% men). Current smoking was infrequent for both recovered or deceased patients (3.27%, and 2.83%, respectively). Cardiometabolic conditions were less commonly reported among later recovered patients in comparison with deceased patients: obesity (10.7% vs 12.1%), diabetes (15.9% vs 27.4%), hypertension (23.2% vs 42.7%), and CVD (9.33% vs 44.9%). Chronic pulmonary disease was also more frequent among deceased patients (10.3% vs 18.1%).

Conclusions

Characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 patients differ according to outcomes at discharge with more in-hospital death reported among older, chronic patients across 6 hospitals in 4 countries.

Key messages

• Federated analyses provide unique opportunities for robust results by privacy-preserving accessing individual-level data from heterogeneous data sources.

• The unCoVer network aims to demonstrate the usability of the infrastructure to address research questions related to the COVID-19 while extending the concept to other clinical areas.

Challenges of data sharing in European Covid-19 projects: A learning opportunity for advancing pandemic preparedness and response

The COVID-19 pandemic saw a massive investment into collaborative research projects with a focus on producing data to support public health decisions. We relay our direct experience of four projects funded under the Horizon2020 programme, namely ReCoDID, ORCHESTRA, unCoVer and SYNCHROS. The projects provide insight into the complexities of sharing patient level data from observational cohorts. We focus on compliance with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and ethics approvals when sharing data across national borders. We discuss procedures for data mapping; submission of new international codes to standards organisation; federated approach; and centralised data curation. Finally, we put forward recommendations for the development of guidelines for the application of GDPR in case of major public health threats; mandatory standards for data collection in funding frameworks; training and capacity building for data owners; cataloguing of international use of metadata standards; and dedicated funding for identified critical areas.

Improving lifestyle behaviours among women in Kisantu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial

Introduction

As the prevalence of obesity among women of reproductive age is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of lifestyle-related conditions is expected to rise quickly. This study aims to develop and evaluate a multi-component health promotion programme for a healthy lifestyle to ultimately prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes among adult women in Kisantu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Methods and analysis

This study is a cluster randomised controlled trial whereby two groups of three healthcare centres each, matched by population size coverage and geographical area, will be randomised to an intervention or a comparison group. Adult women of reproductive age (18–49 years), non-pregnant or first-trimester pregnant, will be recruited from the healthcare centres. 144 women in the intervention centres will follow a 24-month multi-component health promotion programme based on educational and motivational strategies whereas the comparison centres (144 participants) will be limited to a basic educational strategy. The programme will be delivered by trained peer educators and entails individualised education sessions, education and physical activity group activities, and focus groups. Topics of an optimal diet, physical activity, weight management and awareness of type 2 and gestational diabetes will be covered. The primary outcome is the adherence to a healthy lifestyle measured by a validated closed-ended questionnaire and secondary outcomes include anthropometric measurements, clinical parameters, diet diversity and the level of physical activity. Participants from both groups will be assessed at baseline and every 6 months by trained health professionals from the recruiting healthcare centres. Data will be summarised by measures of central tendency for continuous outcomes, and frequency distribution and percentages for categorical data. The primary and secondary outcomes will be quantified using statistical mixed models.

Ethics

This research was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp in Belgium (IRB/RR/AC/137) and the Ethical Committee of the University of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ESP/CE/130/2021). Any substantial change to the study protocol must be approved by all the bodies that have approved the initial protocol, before being implemented. Also, this journal will be informed regarding any protocol modification. Written informed consent will be required and obtained for all participants. No participant may be enrolled on the study until written informed consent has been obtained.

Trial registration number

NCT05039307.

A retrospective database study of the demographic features and glycemic control of patients with type 2 diabetes in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

The Kin-Antwerp project aimed at improving the quality of care provided to patients with diabetes in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa, including the digitalisation of routine clinical data to improve patients' follow-up. We aim to analyse the data of a study population of Kin-Antwerp to characterise their demographic features, assess their achievement of glycemic target over time, and identify groups requiring prioritised attention.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database analysis of routinely collected information from primary care patients with type 2 diabetes followed from 1991 to 2019. Data included demographics (age, sex), anthropometrics (weight, height), clinical parameters (blood pressure, plasma glucose), and anti-diabetic treatments. Achievement of glycemic target, defined as fasting plasma glucose < 126 mg/dL, over time was assessed using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Our study population of patients with type 2 diabetes (N = 8976) comprised a higher proportion of women (67%) and patients between 40 and 65 years old (70.4%). At the first follow-up, most patients were on treatment with insulin (56.5%) and had glycemic levels under the target (79.9%). Women presented more often with obesity (27.4%) and high systolic blood pressure (41.8%) than men (8.6% and 37.0%, respectively). Patients had a median follow-up of 1.8 (interquartile range: 0.5-3.4) years. Overall, the odds of achieving glycemic target increased by 18.4% (odds ratio: 1.184, 95% CI: 1.130 to 1.239; p < 0.001) per year of follow-up. Stratified analyses suggested that the odds of achieving glycemic control over time increased among older patients (> 40 years), but not among younger patients (< 40 years).

CONCLUSION

In our study population, an overall poor glycemic control was observed albeit with a modest improvement in the achievement of glycemic target throughout patients' follow-up. Younger patients may benefit from prioritised attention to achieve glycemic targets. Based on the information provided by the database, continue monitoring and improvement of the project Kin-Antwerp is recommended. Introducing further efforts to improve type 2 diabetes management should include robust glycemia-monitoring tools and haemoglobin A1c, as well as further outlining self-management strategies.

Burden of Disease of COVID-19: Strengthening the Collaboration for National Studies

Objectives

Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years.

Methods

The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021.

Results

National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic.

Discussion

Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10-24 years in the EU, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU.

METHODS

Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State.

FINDINGS

In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5-88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4-39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10-24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62-4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25-298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56-2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96-2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10-24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04-12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53-8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78-10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63-7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10-24 years substantially decreased (-40·41% [-43·00 to -37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (-40·56% [-43·16 to -37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (r_s=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (r_s=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (r_s=-0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (r_s=-0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (r_s=-0·61, p=0·0005).

INTERPRETATION

NCD-related mortality has substantially declined among adolescents in the EU between 1990 and 2019, but the rising trend of YLL attributed to mental disorders and their YLD burden are concerning. Differences by sex, age group, and across EU Member States highlight the importance of preventive interventions and scaling up adolescent-responsive health-care systems, which should prioritise specific needs by sex, age, and location.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021

Importance:

While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.

Objective:

To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery

Design:

We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results:

Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8–312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38–7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9–92.4), 60.4% (18.9–89.1), and 35.4% (9.4–75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84–4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10–9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3–21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms.

Conclusions and relevance:

The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.

The epidemic volatility index, a novel early warning tool for identifying new waves in an epidemic

Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Results from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and New York State are presented here, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Live daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America are publicly available online. For Italy, the overall sensitivity for EVI was 0.82 (95% Confidence Intervals: 0.75; 0.89) and the specificity was 0.91 (0.88; 0.94). For New York, the corresponding values were 0.55 (0.47; 0.64) and 0.88 (0.84; 0.91). Consecutive issuance of early warnings is a strong indicator of main epidemic waves in any country or state. EVI’s application to data from the current COVID-19 pandemic revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting new waves. The application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks in combination with existing early warning systems will enhance our ability to act swiftly and thereby enhance containment of outbreaks.

Ultra-processed food consumption in adults across Europe

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to describe ultra-processed food and drinks (UPFDs) consumption, and associations with intake of total sugar and dietary fibre, and high BMI in adults across Europe.

Methods

Using food consumption data collected by food records or 24-h dietary recalls available from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database, the foods consumed were classified by the level of processing using the NOVA classification. Diet quality was assessed by data linkage to the Dutch food composition tables (NEVO) and years lived with disability for high BMI from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Bivariate groupings were carried out to explore associations of UPFDs consumption with population intake of sugar and dietary fibre, and BMI burden, visualised by scatterplots.

Results

The energy share from UPFDs varied markedly across the 22 European countries included, ranging from 14 to 44%, being the lowest in Italy and Romania, while the highest in the UK and Sweden. An overall modest decrease (2–15%) in UPFDs consumption is observed over time, except for Finland, Spain and the UK reporting increases (3–9%). Fine bakery wares and soft drinks were most frequently ranked as the main contributor. Countries with a higher sugar intake reported also a higher energy share from UPFDs, as most clearly observed for UPF (r = 0.57, p value = 0.032 for men; and r = 0.53, p value = 0.061 for women). No associations with fibre intake or high BMI were observed.

Conclusion

Population-level UPFDs consumption substantially varied across Europe, although main contributors are similar. UPFDs consumption was not observed to be associated with country-level burden of high BMI, despite being related to a higher total sugar intake.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00394-021-02733-7.

Quantification of disparities in the distribution of lifestyle and metabolic risk factors, prevalence of non-communicable diseases and related mortality: the Belgian Health Interview Surveys 1997-2018

OBJECTIVES

Comprehensively measure the trends in health disparities by sociodemographic strata in terms of exposure to lifestyle and metabolic risks, and prevalence and mortality of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) during the last 20 years in Belgium.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of periodic national-representative health interview surveys and vital statistics.

SETTING

Population-based study of adult residents in Belgium between 1997 and 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 25-84 years and resident in Belgium in the years 1997 (7256 adults), 2001 (8665), 2004 (9054), 2008 (7343), 2013 (7704) and 2018 (8358).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Age-standardised prevalence rates of modifiable lifestyle risks (poor diet, smoking, excessive alcohol use and leisure-time physical inactivity), metabolic risks (high body mass index (BMI), blood pressure and cholesterol levels) and major NCDs (type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)), with their relative health disparities across strata by age, sex, region of residence, nationality, education and income level, and according to high versus low engagement in the four lifestyle risks, calculated from a survey-weighted age-adjusted logistic regression.

RESULTS

Greater avoidable disparities were observed between extremes of education and income strata. The most marked disparities were found for exposure to lifestyle risks (except excessive alcohol use), prevalence of high BMI as well as T2DM, asthma and COPD, with disparities of daily smoking and COPD worsening over time. Still, NCD-specific mortality rates were significantly higher among men (except asthma), residents of Wallonia and Brussels (except cerebrovascular disease), and among the native Belgians (except T2DM and asthma). High engagement in lifestyle risks was generally observed for men, residents of the region Wallonia, and among lower education and income strata. This subgroup (20%) had a worse health profile as compared with those who had a low-risk lifestyle (25%), shown by prevalence ratios varying between 1.1 and 1.6 for metabolic risks, and between 1.8 and 3.7 for CVD, asthma and COPD.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving population health, including promoting greater health equity, requires approaches to be tailored to high-risk groups with actions tackling driving root causes of disparities seen by social factors and unhealthy lifestyle.

Unravelling data for rapid evidence-based response to COVID-19: a summary of the unCoVer protocol

INTRODUCTION

unCoVer-Unravelling data for rapid evidence-based response to COVID-19-is a Horizon 2020-funded network of 29 partners from 18 countries capable of collecting and using real-world data (RWD) derived from the response and provision of care to patients with COVID-19 by health systems across Europe and elsewhere. unCoVer aims to exploit the full potential of this information to rapidly address clinical and epidemiological research questions arising from the evolving pandemic.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, partners are gathering RWD from electronic health records currently including information from over 22 000 hospitalised patients with COVID-19, and national surveillance and screening data, and registries with over 1 900 000 COVID-19 cases across Europe, with continuous updates. These heterogeneous datasets will be described, harmonised and integrated into a multi-user data repository operated through Opal-DataSHIELD, an interoperable open-source server application. Federated data analyses, without sharing or disclosing any individual-level data, will be performed with the objective to reveal patients' baseline characteristics, biomarkers, determinants of COVID-19 prognosis, safety and effectiveness of treatments, and potential strategies against COVID-19, as well as epidemiological patterns. These analyses will complement evidence from efficacy/safety clinical trials, where vulnerable, more complex/heterogeneous populations and those most at risk of severe COVID-19 are often excluded.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

After strict ethical considerations, databases will be available through a federated data analysis platform that allows processing of available COVID-19 RWD without disclosing identification information to analysts and limiting output to data aggregates. Dissemination of unCoVer's activities will be related to the access and use of dissimilar RWD, as well as the results generated by the pooled analyses. Dissemination will include training and educational activities, scientific publications and conference communications.

Olive oil consumption is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The specific association of olive oil consumption with coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke has not been totally established.

OBJECTIVE

to examine whether olive oil consumption is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, the risk of total cardiovascular disease (CVD), CHD, and stroke.

METHODS

Three cohorts were included: AWHS (2318 men), SUN Project (18,266 men and women), and EPIC-Spain (39,393 men and women). Olive oil consumption was measured at baseline using validated questionnaires.

RESULTS

In the AWHS, 747 participants had a positive coronary artery calcium score (CACS>0), and the OR (95% CI) was 0.89 (0.72, 1.10) in those with virgin olive oil consumption ≥30 g/day (v. <10 g/day). In the SUN Project (follow-up 10.8 years) 261 total CVD cases occurred, and the HR was 0.57 (0.34, 0.96) for consumptions ≥30 g/day (v. <10 g/day). In the EPIC-Spain (follow-up 22.8 years) 1300 CHD cases and 938 stroke cases occurred; the HRs for stroke according, 0 to <10 (ref), 10 to <20, 20 to <30, and ≥30 g/day of olive oil consumption, were 0.84 (0.70, 1.02), 0.80 (0.66, 0.96), 0.89 (0.74, 1.07). A weaker association was observed for CHD. The association was stronger among those consuming virgin olive oil, instead of common (refined).

CONCLUSIONS

Olive oil is associated with lower risk of CVD and stroke. The maximum benefit could be obtained with a consumption between 20 and 30 g/day. The association could be stronger for virgin olive oil and might operate from the early stages of the disease.

Microsimulation Modelling in Food Policy: A Scoping Review of Methodological Aspects

Food policies for the prevention and management of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been increasingly relying on microsimulation models (MSMs) to assess effectiveness. Given the increased uptake of MSMs, this review aims to provide an overview of the characteristics of MSMs that link diets with NCDs. A comprehensive review was conducted in PubMed and Web of Knowledge. Inclusion criteria were: (i) findings from a MSM, (ii) diets, foods or nutrients as main exposure of interest, (iii) NCDs, such as overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke or cancer as disease outcome for impact assessment. This review included information from 33 studies using MSM in analyzing diet and diverse food policies on NCDs. Hereby, most models employed stochastic, discrete-time, dynamic microsimulation techniques to calculate anticipated (cost-)effectiveness of strategies based on food pricing, food reformulation or dietary (lifestyle) interventions. Currently available models differ in the methodology used for quantifying the effect of the dietary changes on disease, and in the method for modelling disease incidence and mortality. However, all studies provided evidence that the models were sufficiently capturing the close-to-reality situation by justifying their choice of model parameters and validating externally their modelled disease incidence and mortality with observed or predicted event data. With the increasing use of various MSMs, between-model comparisons, facilitated by open access models and good reporting practices, would be important for judging model's accuracy, leading to continued improvement in the methodologies for developing and applying MSMs, and subsequently a better understanding of the results by policymakers.

A STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE

Given the advancement in the application of microsimulation modelling in evaluating food policies and measuring diet-related disease burdens, the present scoping review serves as an exercise to inform future modelling, hereby highlighting the need for transparency in model development, application and dissemination to advance and safeguard accuracy and relevance in modelling efforts.

Inequalities in non-communicable diseases across the European Union: current state and trends from 2000 to 2019

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the leading cause of disease burden in the European Union (EU). However, this burden varies across Member States, driven by the socioeconomic and demographic structure of the populations, as well as health care and social support systems in each country. This geographical gradient in the burden of NCDs represents health inequalities that may have expanded as a result of population ageing, migration, and economic crisis, and historic backgrounds.

Methods

Using data from the GBD 2019 study, we quantify the inequality gap between EU countries, characterize the geographical gradient of total and individual NCDs, and analyze the trends over the last 20 years.

Results

A considerable gap exists in the rates of NCD-related DALYs between the country with the lowest burden (Slovenia in 2019) and the highest (Bulgaria in 2019), with a constant (p-trend &gt; 0.05) ratio of 1.6 (95%CI, 1.57; 1.64) since the year 2000. The largest inequality was observed for the burden of stroke between the lowest (France in 2019) and the highest (Bulgaria in 2019) with a ratio of 7.47 (6.78; 8.24) Increasing steadily (p-trend &lt; 0.001) since 2000. Using the relative index of inequality to characterize the gradient of inequalities across the EU, a decreasing trend (p &lt; 0.001) can be observed for NCD-related DALYs rates from 1.56 (1.44; 1.7) in 2000 to in 1.42 (1.33; 1.52) 2019.

Conclusions

Despite overall improvements in health, spatial disparities related to NCDs in the EU persist. Our estimates provide a baseline to inform future equitable health policies.

Insights into the association of ACEIs/ARBs use and COVID-19 prognosis: a multistate modelling study of nationwide hospital surveillance data from Belgium

OBJECTIVES

The widespread use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) by patients with chronic conditions raised early concerns on the potential exacerbation of COVID-19 severity and fatality. Previous studies addressing this question have used standard methods that may lead to biased estimates when analysing hospital data because of the presence of competing events and event-related dependency. We investigated the association of ACEIs/ARBs' use with COVID-19 disease outcomes using time-to-event data in a multistate setting to account for competing events and minimise bias.

SETTING

Nationwide surveillance data from 119 Belgian hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Medical records of 10 866 patients hospitalised from 14 March 2020to 14 June 2020 with a confirmed SARS-CoV-19 infection and information about ACEIs/ARBs' use.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Multistate, multivariate Cox-Markov models were used to estimate the hazards of patients transitioning through health states from admission to discharge or death, along with transition probabilities calculated by combining the baseline cumulative hazard and regression coefficients.

RESULTS

After accounting for potential confounders, there was no discernable association between ACEIs/ARBs' use and transfer to intensive care unit (ICU). Contrastingly, for patients without ICU transfer, ACEIs/ARBs' use was associated with a modest increase in recovery (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13, p=0.027) and reduction in fatality (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.93, p=0.001) transitions. For patients transferred to ICU admission, no evidence of an association between ACEIs/ARBs' use and recovery (HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.38, p=0.098) or in-hospital death (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.12, p=0.381) was observed. Male gender and older age were significantly associated with higher risk of ICU admission or death. Chronic cardiometabolic comorbidities were also associated with less recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, a multistate model was used to address magnitude and direction of the association of ACEIs/ARBs' use on COVID-19 progression. By minimising bias, this study provided a robust indication of a protective, although modest, association with recovery and survival.

Evaluation of the Food Choice Motives before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study of 1232 Adults from Croatia

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic brought changes to almost every segment of our lives, including dietary habits. We present one among several studies, and the first on the Croatian population, aiming at investigating changes of food choice motives before and during the pandemic. The study was performed in June 2021 as an online-based survey, using a 36-item Food Choice Questionnaire applied for both the periods before and during the pandemic. The final sample consisted of 1232 adults living in Croatia. Sensory appeal was ranked as the number one most important food choice motive before, whereas health was ranked as the number one most important food choice motive during the pandemic. Ethical concern was reported as the least important food choice motive both before and during the pandemic. In women, natural content (p = 0.002), health, convenience, price, weight control, familiarity, and ethical concern (all p < 0.001) became more important during the pandemic, while price (p = 0.009), weight control, familiarity, and ethical concern (all p < 0.001) became more relevant for men. All together, these can be considered favorable changes toward optimal diets and may result in beneficial influences on health and lifestyle. Education strategies and efficiently tackling misinformation are prerequisites for informed food choice, which will ensure long-lasting positive effects of such changes.

Effectiveness of workplace wellness programmes for dietary habits, overweight, and cardiometabolic health: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The workplace offers a unique opportunity for effective health promotion. We aimed to comprehensively study the effectiveness of multicomponent worksite wellness programmes for improving diet and cardiometabolic risk factors.

Methods

We did a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, following PRISMA guidelines. We searched PubMed-MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Education Resources Information Center, from Jan 1, 1990, to June 30, 2020, for studies with controlled evaluation designs that assessed multicomponent workplace wellness programmes. Investigators independently appraised the evidence and extracted the data. Outcomes were dietary factors, anthropometric measures, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Pooled effects were calculated by inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. Potential sources of heterogeneity and study biases were evaluated.

Findings

From 10 169 abstracts reviewed, 121 studies (82 [68%] randomised controlled trials and 39 [32%] quasi-experimental interventions) met the eligibility criteria. Most studies were done in North America (57 [47%]), and Europe, Australia, or New Zealand (36 [30%]). The median number of participants was 413·0 (IQR 124·0–904·0), and median duration of intervention was 9·0 months (4·5–18·0). Workplace wellness programmes improved fruit and vegetable consumption (0·27 servings per day [95% CI 0·16 to 0·37]), fruit consumption (0·20 servings per day [0·11 to 0·28]), body-mass index (−0·22 kg/m² [−0·28 to −0·17]), waist circumference (−1·47 cm [−1·96 to −0·98]), systolic blood pressure (−2·03 mm Hg [−3·16 to −0·89]), and LDL cholesterol (−5·18 mg/dL [−7·83 to −2·53]), and to a lesser extent improved total fat intake (−1·18% of daily energy intake [−1·78 to −0·58]), saturated fat intake (−0·70% of daily energy [−1·22 to −0·18]), bodyweight (−0·92 kg [−1·11 to −0·72]), diastolic blood pressure (−1·11 mm Hg [−1·78 to −0·44]), fasting blood glucose (−1·81 mg/dL [−3·33 to −0·28]), HDL cholesterol (1·11 mg/dL [0·48 to 1·74]), and triglycerides (−5·38 mg/dL [−9·18 to −1·59]). No significant benefits were observed for intake of vegetables (0·03 servings per day [95% CI −0·04 to 0·10]), fibre (0·26 g per day [−0·15 to 0·67]), polyunsaturated fat (−0·23% of daily energy [−0·59 to 0·13]), or for body fat (−0·80% [−1·80 to 0·21]), waist-to-hip ratio (−0·00 ratio [−0·01 to 0·00]), or lean mass (1·01 kg [−0·82 to 2·83]). Heterogeneity values ranged from 46·9% to 91·5%. Between-study differences in outcomes were not significantly explained by study design, location, population, or similar factors in heterogeneity analyses.

Interpretation

Workplace wellness programmes are associated with improvements in specific dietary, anthropometric, and cardiometabolic risk indicators. The heterogeneity identified in study designs and results should be considered when using these programmes as strategies to improve cardiometabolic health.

Scale-up integrated care for diabetes and hypertension in Cambodia, Slovenia and Belgium (SCUBY): a study design for a quasi-experimental multiple case study

Health systems worldwide struggle to manage the growing burden of type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Many patients receive suboptimal care, especially those most vulnerable. An evidence-based Integrated Care Package (ICP) with primary care-based diagnosis, treatment, education and self-management support and collaboration, leads to better health outcomes, but there is little knowledge of how to scale-up. The Scale-up integrated care for diabetes and hypertension project (SCUBY) aims to address this problem by roadmaps for scaling-up ICP in different types of health systems: a developing health system in a lower middle-income country (Cambodia); a centrally steered health system in a high-income country (Slovenia); and a publicly funded highly privatised health-care health system in a high-income country (Belgium). In a quasi-experimental multi-case design, country-specific scale-up strategies are developed, implemented and evaluated. A three-dimensional framework assesses scale-up along three axes: (1) increase in population coverage; (2) expansion of the ICP package; and (3) integration into the health system. The study includes a formative, intervention and evaluation phase. The intervention entails the development and implementation of an improved scale-up strategy through a roadmap with a minimum dataset to monitor proximal and distal outcomes. The SCUBY project is expected to result in three different roadmaps, tailored to the specific health system and country context, to progress scale-up of the ICP along three dimensions. These roadmaps can be adapted to other health systems with similar typology. Implementation is expected to increase the number of well-controlled patients with type 2 diabetes and hypertension in Cambodia, to reduce inequities in care and increase patient empowerment in Belgium and Slovenia.

Nefer, Sinuhe and clinical research assessing post COVID-19 condition

In the immortal classical novel by Finnish writer Mika Waltari (1908–1979) (figure 1), Nefer, a beautiful and cunning Egyptian courtesan, seduces and befools Sinuhe, the pharaoh's physician. Sinuhe is bewitched by her charms and sacrifices everything for her – even his parents’ house and grave – only to be cruelly rejected when Nefer tires of playing with him.

Clinical research studies reporting on post COVID-19 condition should follow some basic recommendations http://bit.ly/3h4OEIa

The Burden of Malnutrition and Fatal COVID-19: A Global Burden of Disease Analysis

Background: Although reasonable to assume, it is not yet clear whether malnourished countries are at higher risk for severe or fatal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aims to identify the countries where prevalent malnutrition may be a driving factor for fatal disease after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, country-level burden of malnutrition was quantified using four indicators: death rates for child growth failure (underweight, stunting, and/or wasting) and years lived with disability (YLD) attributed to iron and vitamin A deficiencies and high body mass index (BMI). Global mortality descriptors of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic were extracted from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and case fatality ratios (CFRs) were calculated introducing a lag time of 10 weeks after the first death of a confirmed case. Bivariate analyses for 172 countries were carried out for malnutrition indicators and fatal COVID-19. Correlations between burden indicators were characterized by Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (ρ) and visually by scatterplots. Restricted cubic splines and underlying negative binomial regressions adjusted for countries' age-structure, prevalent chronic comorbidities related to COVID-19, population density, and income group were used to explore non-linear relationships. Results: Stratified by the World Bank income group, a moderate positive association between YLD rates for iron deficiency and CFRs for COVID-19 was observed for low-income countries (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.027), whereas no clear indications for the association with child growth failure, vitamin A deficiency, or high BMI were found (ρ < 0.30). Countries ranking high on at least three malnutrition indicators and presenting also an elevated CFR for COVID-19 are sub-Saharan African countries, namely, Angola, Burkina Faso, Chad, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Sudan, and Tanzania, as well as Yemen and Guyana. Conclusions: Population-level malnutrition appears to be related to increased rates of fatal COVID-19 in areas with an elevated burden of undernutrition, such as countries in the Sahel strip. COVID-19 response plans in malnourished countries, vulnerable to fatal COVID-19, should incorporate food security, nutrition, and social protection as a priority component in order to reduce COVID-19 fatality.

Relationship between Wine Consumption, Diet and Microbiome Modulation in Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder leading to the most common form of dementia in elderly people. Modifiable dietary and lifestyle factors could either accelerate or ameliorate the aging process and the risk of developing AD and other age-related morbidities. Emerging evidence also reports a potential link between oral and gut microbiota alterations and AD. Dietary polyphenols, in particular wine polyphenols, are a major diver of oral and gut microbiota composition and function. Consequently, wine polyphenols health effects, mediated as a function of the individual's oral and gut microbiome are considered one of the recent greatest challenges in the field of neurodegenerative diseases as a promising strategy to prevent or slow down AD progression. This review highlights current knowledge on the link of oral and intestinal microbiome and the interaction between wine polyphenols and microbiota in the context of AD. Furthermore, the extent to which mechanisms bacteria and polyphenols and its microbial metabolites exert their action on communication pathways between the brain and the microbiota, as well as the impact of the molecular mediators to these interactions on AD patients, are described.

Population vulnerability to COVID-19 in Europe: a burden of disease analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence has emerged showing that elderly people and those with pre-existing chronic health conditions may be at higher risk of developing severe health consequences from COVID-19. In Europe, this is of particular relevance with ageing populations living with non-communicable diseases, multi-morbidity and frailty. Published estimates of Years Lived with Disability (YLD) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study help to characterise the extent of these effects. Our aim was to identify the countries across Europe that have populations at highest risk from COVID-19 by using estimates of population age structure and YLD for health conditions linked to severe illness from COVID-19.

METHODS

Population and YLD estimates from GBD 2017 were extracted for 45 countries in Europe. YLD was restricted to a list of specific health conditions associated with being at risk of developing severe consequences from COVID-19 based on guidance from the United Kingdom Government. This guidance also identified individuals aged 70 years and above as being at higher risk of developing severe health consequences. Study outcomes were defined as: (i) proportion of population aged 70 years and above; and (ii) rate of YLD for COVID-19 vulnerable health conditions across all ages. Bivariate groupings were established for each outcome and combined to establish overall population-level vulnerability.

RESULTS

Countries with the highest proportions of elderly residents were Italy, Greece, Germany, Portugal and Finland. When assessments of population-level YLD rates for COVID-19 vulnerable health conditions were made, the highest rates were observed for Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina. A bivariate analysis indicated that the countries at high-risk across both measures of vulnerability were: Bulgaria; Portugal; Latvia; Lithuania; Greece; Germany; Estonia; and Sweden.

CONCLUSION

Routine estimates of population structures and non-fatal burden of disease measures can be usefully combined to create composite indicators of vulnerability for rapid assessments, in this case to severe health consequences from COVID-19. Countries with available results for sub-national regions within their country, or national burden of disease studies that also use sub-national levels for burden quantifications, should consider using non-fatal burden of disease estimates to estimate geographical vulnerability to COVID-19.

Actions Targeting the Double Burden of Malnutrition: A Scoping Review

Background: In many developing countries, nutritional and epidemiological transitions are contributing to continuous undernutrition and escalating overnutrition, resulting in coexisting forms of malnutrition often referred as the “double burden of malnutrition” (DBM). This complex phenomenon constitutes an unprecedented challenge to global public health and has been prioritized by international health organizations, prompting governments to swift action. Specifically, five years ago the World Health Organization (WHO) proposed a roadmap to tackle the DBM though so-called “double-duty actions”. The objective of this review was to synthesize the literature on interventions which address the DBM. Methods: We developed a scoping review to identify interventions addressing the DBM. We searched PUBMED for papers reporting interventions until December 2019. Articles examining interventions, government policies, or tools at the individual, household, or community level to address the DBM were included. Results: Seven articles met the inclusion criteria. Three were from sub-Saharan Africa, one was from Southeast Asia, and one was from Central America. Two were modelling studies, with one covering 24 low-income countries and the other focusing on Ghana. Conclusion: Notwithstanding the pressing issue of the DBM, there is a paucity of studies examining double-duty actions despite the attention that it has garnered within the global nutrition community. Whilst nutrient deficiencies may be curbed by poverty reduction measures, for obesity prevention nutrition, education and promotion of physical activity, along with the encouragement of local food production, may be instrumental.

Generic Meal Patterns Identified by Latent Class Analysis: Insights from NANS (National Adult Nutrition Survey)

Nutritional data reduction methods are widely applied in nutrition epidemiology in order to classify individuals into meaningful groups with similar dietary patterns. To date, none of the existing studies have applied latent class analysis to examine dietary patterns which include meal types consumed throughout a day. We investigated main meal patterns followed on weekend and weekdays, and evaluated their associations with cardio-metabolic biomarkers. The analyses were performed within the NANS (National Adult Nutrition Survey) a cross-sectional national food consumption survey of 1500 nationally representative Irish adults. A total number of seven dietary patterns were identified using latent class analysis. The typical meal pattern followed by the majority of the population was characterized by consumption of cereal or toast for breakfast, skipping or consuming a sandwich for light meal, and meat or fish with potatoes, pasta or vegetables for the main meal. Eating patterns differed on weekends, and those participants who consumed meat and eggs for breakfast instead of breakfast cereal and skipped light meal were more likely to have an unhealthier dietary pattern, a higher diastolic blood pressure, and increased serum ferritin. The application of data reduction techniques to simplify the multifaceted nature of dietary data is a useful approach to derive patterns, which might shed further light on the typical dietary patterns followed by populations.

Different protein composition of low-calorie diet differently impacts adipokine profile irrespective of weight loss in overweight and obese women

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

High-protein (HP) diets have shown benefits in cardiometabolic markers such as insulin or triglycerides but the responsible mechanisms are not known. We aimed to assess the effect of three energy-restricted diets with different protein contents (20%, 27%, and 35%; ∼80% coming from animal source) on plasma adipokine concentration and its association with changes in cardiometabolic markers.

METHODS

Seventy-six women (BMI 32.8 ± 2.93) were randomized to one of three calorie-reduced diets, with protein, 20%, 27%, or 35%; carbohydrates, 50%, 43%, or 35%; and fat, 30%, for 3 months. Plasma adipokine (leptin, resistin, adiponectin, and retinol-binding protein 4; RBP4) levels were assessed.

RESULTS

After 3 months, leptin concentration decreased in all groups without differences among them, while resistin levels remained unchanged. Adiponectin concentration heterogeneously changed in all groups (P for trend = 0.165) and resistin concentration did not significantly change. RPB4 significantly decreased by -17.5% (-31.7, -3.22) in 35%-protein diet (P for trend = 0.024 among diets). Triglycerides improved in women following the 35%-protein diet regardless of weight loss; RBP4 variation significantly influenced triglyceride concentration change by 24.9% and 25.9% when comparing 27%- and 35%- with 20%-protein diet, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A 35%-protein diet induced a decrease in RBP4 regardless of weight loss, which was directly associated with triglyceride concentration improvement. These findings suggest that HP diets improve the cardiometabolic profile, at least in part, through changes in adipokine secretion. Whether this beneficial effect of HP diet is due to improvements in hepatic or adipose tissue functionality should be elucidated.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

The clinical trial has been registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (Identifier: NCT02160496).

The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

BACKGROUND

Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US.

METHODS

Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES).

RESULTS

Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024-24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9-3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3-3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7-3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2-10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1-10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2-7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3-4.5) percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.

The Importance of Breakfast in Atherosclerosis Disease: Insights From the PESA Study

BACKGROUND

Daily habits, including the number and quality of eating occasions, are potential targets for primary prevention strategies with large health impacts. Skipping breakfast is considered a frequent and unhealthy habit associated with an increased cardiovascular (CV) risk.

OBJECTIVES

The study sought to explore the association between different breakfast patterns and CV risk factors and the presence, distribution, and extension of subclinical atherosclerosis.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis was performed within the PESA (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis) study, a prospective cohort of asymptomatic (free of CV events at baseline) adults 40 to 54 years of age. Lifestyle and multivascular imaging data along with clinical covariates were collected from 4,052 participants. Multivariate logistic regression models were used in the analysis.

RESULTS

Three patterns of breakfast consumption were studied: high-energy breakfast, when contributing to >20% of total daily energy intake (27% of the population); low-energy breakfast, when contributing between 5% and 20% of total daily energy intake (70% of the population); and skipping breakfast, when consuming <5% of total daily energy (3% of the population). Independent of the presence of traditional and dietary CV risk factors, and compared with high-energy breakfast, habitual skipping breakfast was associated with a higher prevalence of noncoronary (odds ratio: 1.55; 95% confidence interval: 0.97 to 2.46) and generalized (odds ratio: 2.57; 95% confidence interval: 1.54 to 4.31) atherosclerosis.

CONCLUSION

Skipping breakfast is associated with an increased odds of prevalent noncoronary and generalized atherosclerosis independently of the presence of conventional CV risk factors. (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis [PESA]; NCT01410318).