Magnitude of illicit cigarette trade in Malaysia: empirical evidence compared with industry studies

BACKGROUND

The tobacco industry contends that the illicit market in Malaysia occupies 62.3% of the total cigarette market. If this is true, Malaysia has one of the largest shares of illicit cigarettes in the world.

METHODS

This study employs a rigorous gap analysis to measure the size of the illicit cigarette trade in Malaysia and compare it with the industry estimates.

FINDINGS

We found that in 2019, the illicit cigarette market share ranged from 38.2% to 52.5%, depending on assumptions with respect to consumption under-reporting, which is substantially less than the industry estimates. We found that the size of the illicit cigarette market was not driven by higher excise tax: doubling the excise tax rate from RM0.20 to RM0.40 per stick in November 2015 resulted in only a slight increase in the illicit cigarette market share and no increase in the number of illicit cigarettes in the market.

CONCLUSIONS

Therefore, a reduction in cigarette excise taxes, as suggested by the industry, will not solve the problem of illicit cigarette trade in Malaysia. Instead, the government should ratify the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control's Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products and implement the strategies outlined in the protocol.

Effectiveness of the Children's Fitness Tax Credit: A scoping review

OBJECTIVES

A scoping review was conducted to synthesize the literature examining impact of the Children's Fitness Tax Credit (CFTC) on the physical activity (PA) of Canadian children. Specifically, we posed two research questions seeking evidence for: (1) equitable take-up (e.g., claiming, use) of the CFTC by Canadian families; and (2) effectiveness of the CFTC in promoting or facilitating PA or sport participation among Canadian children and adolescents.

METHODS

A search was conducted in May 2023 of five databases (e.g., Medline, Scopus) and hand searching using terms such as children, adolescents, physical activity, sport, tax credit or taxation. Documents were included if they were data-based studies, available in English or French, and related to the research questions. They were then coded for characteristics of the document, sample, data, behaviour, and findings.

SYNTHESIS

Of 318 possible documents, 7 documents revealing 26 findings were included after a full-article scan. Most of the documents were published and had a national scope. The most frequent source of data was from parental reports (62%), with the most common types of behaviour being tax claim take-up rates (31%) or PA (27%). For the two research questions, the available evidence suggests no support for equitable take-up of the CFTC or the amount claimed, and most of the findings indicated no (64%) or limited effectiveness of the tax credit (29%).

CONCLUSION

The CFTC had limited to no impact in promoting PA among Canadian children, particularly for those experiencing low income.

Impact of cigarette price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania

BACKGROUND

Albania has one of the highest smoking prevalence in Europe especially among the youth. There is a lack of evidence in Albania, as well as in most of Eastern Europe and middle-income countries, regarding the effect of price on smoking experimentation.

OBJECTIVE

The study aims to assess the effect of price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania.

METHODS

We used microdata from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey in Albania for 2004, 2009, 2015 and 2020. We constructed a pseudo-longitudinal dataset and estimated a split-population model to assess the hazard of smoking experimentation.

RESULTS

Price is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females (p<0.001). Being male increases the odds for smoking experimentation by more than 50% as compared with females (p<0.001), whereas females appear to be more price sensitive. Peer and parent smoking are also important determinants for smoking experimentation. Introducing penalties for smokers and legal entities violating smoke-free policies implemented in 2014 is also associated with a lower hazard of smoking experimentation.

CONCLUSION

Price is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females. A combination of increasing taxes and strengthening the rule of law to control tobacco use in public spaces, in addition to public awareness campaigns targeting both youth and smoking parents, could help to significantly reduce the probability of smoking experimentation.

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the high prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean region, evidence supporting its fiscal measures is limited. We modelled the impact of waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine.

METHODS

We developed a simulation model using country-specific and market share-specific price, consumption and price elasticity data from WHO, UN Comtrade and nationally representative surveys. We modelled increases to specific excise taxes to meet a 35.9% tax burden on 20 g of waterpipe tobacco in Lebanon and Jordan, in line with the global average, and to double government revenues from excise duties in Palestine, which has surpassed this average.

RESULTS

Specific excise tax was raised by $1.14 ($0.18-$1.32) in Jordan, $2.41 ($0.03-$2.44) in Lebanon (alongside removal of ad valorem taxes) and $2.39 ($1.72-$4.11) in Palestine per 20 g of waterpipe tobacco. Government revenue increased by $126.3 million in Jordan, $53.8 million in Lebanon and $162.4 million in Palestine while waterpipes smoked decreased by 32.4% in Jordan, 71.0% in Lebanon and 16.3% in Palestine. The corresponding numbers of premature deaths averted annually were approximately 162 000; 1 000 000; and 52 000.

DISCUSSION

Increases in waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes substantially reduce smoking and increase government revenue and averted premature deaths in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. This has positive implications for both public health and financing and should be considered a policy priority.

Estimating the potential impact of a health tax on the demand for unhealthy food and beverages and on tax revenue in India

Foods high in fat, sugar or salt are important contributors to the rising burden of non-communicable diseases globally and in India. Health taxes (HTs) have been used by over 70 countries as an effective tool for reducing consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). However, the potential impacts of HTs on consumption and on revenues have not been estimated in India. This paper aims to estimate the potential impact of health taxes on the demand for sugar, SSBs and foods high in fat, sugar or salt (HFSS) in India while exploring its impact on tax revenues. PE of sugar was estimated using Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Consumer Price Index data while price elasticities for SSBs and HFSS were obtained from literature. The reduction in demand was estimated for an additional 10-30% HT added to the current goods and services tax, for varying levels of price elasticities. The results show that for manufacturers of sweets and confectionaries who buy sugar in bulk and assuming a higher price elasticity of -0.70, 20% additional HT (total tax 48%) would result in 13-18% decrease in the demand for sugar used for confectionaries and sweets. For SSBs, HT of 10-30% would result in 7-30% decline in the demand of SSBs. For HFSS food products, 10-30% HT would result in 5-24% decline in the demand for HFSS products. These additional taxes would increase tax revenues for the government by 12-200% across different scenarios. Taxing unhealthy foods is likely to reduce demand, while increasing government revenues for reinvestment back into public health programmes and policies that may reduce obesity and the incidence of non-communicable diseases in India.

The impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages on diabetes: a critical review

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.

Cigarette excise tax structure and cigarette prices in nine sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey

BACKGROUND

Economic theory predicts that the excise tax structure influences the distribution of cigarette prices. Evidence shows that uniform specific excise tax structures exhibit the least price variability relative to other tax structures. The distribution of cigarette prices under different excise tax structures has never been examined for a group of African countries.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the distribution of cigarette prices under different tax structures in nine African countries and to critically evaluate the effectiveness of African regional tax directives in promoting public health.

METHODS

Data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, conducted in eight African countries during 2012-2018, and data from the 2017 Gambia Tobacco Survey were used to construct survey-derived cigarette prices. The coefficients of variation and skewness of the price distribution were compared in the context of each country's cigarette excise tax structure.

RESULTS

The least price variability is found in countries with a uniform specific tax, or a mixed system with a minimum specific floor. Cigarette price variability is largest in countries with uniform ad valorem tax structures. Three of the four countries with ad valorem tax structures are in regional blocs, where the tax directives specify that they should implement an ad valorem structure.

CONCLUSIONS

Regional tax directives that require the adoption of uniform specific excise taxes, or high minimum specific floors, could be an efficient way to get multiple African countries to adopt a tax structure that reduces substitution possibilities in response to excise tax increases.

Giving fruits and vegetables a tax break: lessons from a Dutch attempt

OBJECTIVE

Food taxation can improve diets by making unhealthy foods more expensive and by making healthy foods cheaper. In the Netherlands, a political window of opportunity arose in December 2021 to reduce the value-added tax (VAT) on fruits and vegetables to zero percent. The policy is now facing institutional friction along several fronts, however, delaying and potentially averting its implementation. We analysed this institutional friction to inform future food tax policies.

DESIGN

We qualitatively analysed open-access fiscal and health experts' position papers about benefits and downsides of the zero-rate that were discussed with members of parliament in June 2023.

SETTING

The Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Not applicable.

RESULTS

Health and fiscal experts expressed noticeably different viewpoints towards the utility of the zero-rate. One important argument fiscal experts based their negative advice upon pertained to the legal restrictions for distinguishing between healthier and unhealthier forms of fruits and vegetables (i.e. the principle of neutrality). A zero-rate VAT on unhealthier forms of fruits and vegetables, e.g. processed cucumber, mixed with salt and sugar, would be undesirable, but differentiating between raw and processed cucumber would offend the neutrality principle.

CONCLUSIONS

The Dutch attempt to give fruits and vegetables a tax break highlights the need for crystal-clear food classifications when designing food tax policies. Public health nutritionists should combine classifications based on caloric density, palatability, degree of processing and nutrient content to provide a database for evidence-informed tax differentiation according to food item healthfulness.

Perspectives on reforming the tobacco tax administration system in Bangladesh to enhance public health

BACKGROUND

Taxation is the most cost-effective instrument to regulate the consumption of tobacco products. However, weak tax administration can compromise the effectiveness of taxation. This paper aimed to understand the process of the current tobacco tax administration system in Bangladesh, identify gaps and outline the policy priorities to strengthen the tobacco tax administration process in Bangladesh.

METHODS

A sequential qualitative study was conducted in two linked phases: (a) document review and evidence synthesis; and (b) 20 key informant interviews and one workshop with relevant stakeholders to validate the findings generated from both phases.

RESULTS

The complex tax system combined with weak tax administration leads to tax evasion in Bangladesh. The processes of procuring and collecting banderoles and tax stamps vary between cigarette and biri companies, and across large and small tax-paying companies. The use of banderoles at the factory level is maintained manually, and there is no system to routinely verify the authenticity of banderoles. Many unregistered small-scale tobacco manufacturing units often reuse the banderoles on new packs. Shortage of staff with inadequate training at the National Board of Revenue restricts adequate tobacco market monitoring. Electronic tax stamps and banderoles combined with a secure digital tracking and tracing system should be introduced to better monitor the supply, distribution and sale of tobacco products. Training needs to be provided to develop capacity of relevant officials.

CONCLUSION

The tobacco tax administration needs to be strengthened to increase the government's tobacco tax revenue and protect public health.

Excise taxes and pricing activities of e-liquid products sold in online vape shops

BACKGROUND

Although e-cigarette excise taxes have great potential to prevent the initiation and escalation of e-cigarette use, little information is available on pricing activities of online vape shops, and how well taxation is implemented during web-based sales remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We examine e-liquid pricing activities in popular online vape shops that sell nationwide in the USA and present how those stores charge excise taxes based on shipping addresses in states and local jurisdictions that have e-cigarette taxation in place.

METHODS

We collect e-liquid sales prices from five online vape shops using web data extraction, standardise prices for e-liquid products, and present e-liquid price distribution in the whole sample and in each store, as well as variations of excise taxes across states/local jurisdictions and between stores. The price data were scraped from the store websites from February to May in 2021.

RESULTS

We collected data on 14 477 e-liquid products from five stores. The average price of e-liquids is $0.25/mL, and the median price is $0.20/mL in our sample. E-liquid products sold online are very affordable and the average prices are lower compared with price estimates using other sources (eg, self-reports, sales data). In addition, online stores charge state excise taxes inconsistently and fail to comply with county-level or city-level excise taxes.

CONCLUSION

E-liquid products sold online are priced low, and stricter enforcement of e-cigarette excise tax is needed in online purchasing channels.

Taxation of veterinary antibiotics to reduce antimicrobial resistance

Routine usage of antibiotics for animal health is a key driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food-producing animals. Taxation is a possible approach to incentivise appropriate antibiotic usage in food-producing animals. Taxation can be applied flatly across all antibiotic classes, targeted to single antibiotic classes, or scaled based on resistance in each class, so called "differential" taxation. However, quantifying the potential impact of taxation is challenging, due to the nonlinear and unintuitive response of AMR dynamics to interventions and changes in antibiotic usage caused by alterations in price. We combine epidemiological models with price elasticities of demand for veterinary antibiotics, to compare the potential benefits of taxation schemes with currently implemented bans on antibiotic usage. Taxation strategies had effects comparable to bans on antibiotic usage in food-producing animals to reduce average resistance prevalence and prevent increases in overall infection. Taxation could also maximise the average number of antibiotics with a resistance prevalence of under 25% and potentially generate annual global revenues of ∼1 billion US$ under a 50% taxation to current prices of food-producing animal antibiotics. Differential taxation was also able to maintain a high availability of antibiotics over time compared to single and flat taxation strategies, while also having the lowest rates of intervention failure and highest potential revenue across all taxation strategies. These findings suggest that taxation should be further explored as a tool to combat the ongoing AMR crisis.

Effects of the illicit market on the price elasticity of cigarette consumption in Brazil

BACKGROUND

An important element to consider in tobacco tax policy is the illicit market of cigarette sales. The objective of this paper is to provide estimates of both conditional and unconditional price elasticities of cigarette consumption in the licit and illicit markets in Brazil.

METHODOLOGY

Microdata from the National Health Survey in 2013 and 2019 are used to estimate conditional and unconditional price elasticities of cigarette consumption in the licit and illicit cigarette markets by income quartiles and age cohorts. The identification is based on brand information and the official minimum cigarette price defined by the government, as sales below this price are prohibited and illegal.

FINDINGS

The results, robust to potential endogeneity, indicate that there is joint statistical difference in price elasticities across age cohorts and income groups by market type. However, individuals smoking illicit cigarettes, regardless of age cohort and income quartiles, are less sensitive to price changes than those consuming licit brands.

CONCLUSIONS

The illicit cigarette market prevents the government from collecting tobacco tax revenues and weakens the social reach of price-oriented antismoking public policies. Fighting the illicit trade should be a major concern of public policies aiming at reducing cigarette consumption.

A comparative analysis of the cost-utility of the Philippine tax on sweetened beverages as proposed and as implemented

Background

In response to increasing overweight and obesity, the Philippine government introduced a tax on sweetened beverages (SBs) in 2018. Evidence suggests that the beverage industry influenced the final tax design, making it more favourable for industry than the initially proposed bill. This study aimed to compare the relative health and economic benefits of the proposed SB tax with the implemented SB tax.

Methods

Philippine dietary consumption data were combined with price elasticity data from Mexico and data from Australia adapted to the Philippine context to estimate reductions in SB purchases and changes in body mass index (BMI) following the implementation of the tax. A multi-state, multiple-cohort Markov model was used to estimate the change in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) due to reduction in the epidemiology of obesity-related diseases, healthcare cost savings and government taxation revenue, resulting from both the proposed and implemented tax policies, over the lifetime of the 2018 Philippine population.

Findings

The proposed and implemented taxes were modelled to be dominant (cost-saving and improving health). Intervention costs were modelled to be PHP305.2 million (M) (approximately US$6M). Compared to the proposed tax, the implemented tax was modelled to result in a 43.0% smaller reduction in targeted beverage intake (51.1 ml/person/day vs. 89.7 ml/person/day), a 43.5% smaller reduction in BMI (0.35 kg/m2 vs. 0.62 kg/m2), 39.7% fewer HALYs gained (2,503,118 vs. 4,149,030), 39.9% fewer healthcare cost savings (PHP16.4 billion (B) vs. PHP27.3B), and 27.7% less government taxation revenue (PHP426.3B vs. PHP589.4B).

Interpretation

While the implemented tax in the Philippines will benefit population health, it is likely to yield less benefit than the proposed tax. The influence of the food and beverage industry on policy processes has the potential to lessen the benefits of population NCD prevention policies.

Funding

OH was supported to conduct this research by an Australian Government Research Training Program Stipend Scholarship. The funding body had no role in data collection and analysis, or manuscript preparation.

Early Assessment of Impact of Increased Value Added Tax on Smoking Behaviors and Financing among Adult Smokers in Saudi Arabia

Background

Cigarette smoking has been identified as most perilous risk factor for several health ailments. Increased price may discourage smoking habits. There is limited literature available on impact of price rise on smoking behaviors in Saudi Arabia, which is the fourth largest importer of cigarettes and this study assessed the impact of tax increase (in 2020) on smoking behaviors.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was carried out between July 2021 and December 2021.i.e.one year after new value added tax (VAT) system came into force. Data was collected with 14-item pretested questionnaire from 721 adult smokers in Al-Jouf Region of Saudi Arabia selected through stratified cluster ransom sampling. We measured effects of tax increase on smoking behaviors, its impact on decision to quit and perceived health improvements as outcome variables.

Results

Nearly 40% of the respondents said that increased price lead them to smoke less number of cigarettes per day (P=0.000), decreased smoking improved their health in terms of breathing capacity, mood, ability to exercise and sleep in hierarchy. 67.4% of the participants are currently thinking of quitting smoking due to increased prices (P=0.001) and logistic regression models identified reduced smoking due to tax rise (Odds=5.68), improvement in health (Odds=2.94) and excess spending of above 20% (Odds=1.72) significantly associated with intentions to quit smoking.

Conclusion

Increased price of cigarettes due to VAT significantly decreased smoking behaviors and has impact on smokers' decision to quit smoking. Future studies needed to assess the long-term effect of increased tax on smoking behaviors and its relapse.

Impact of the WHO "best buys" for alcohol policy on consumption and health in the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020

Alcohol use is a major risk factor for burden of disease. This narrative review aims to document the effects of major alcohol control policies, in particular taxation increases and availability restrictions in the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) between 2000 and 2020. These measures have been successful in curbing alcohol sales, in general without increasing consumption of alcoholic beverages from unrecorded sources; although for more recent changes this may have been partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, findings from time-series analyses suggest improved health, measured as reductions in all-cause and alcohol-attributable mortality, as well as narrowing absolute mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated groups. For most outcomes, there were sex differences observed, with alcohol control policies more strongly affecting males. In contrast to this successful path, alcohol control policies were mostly dismantled in the neighbouring country of Poland, resulting in a rising death toll due to liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-attributable deaths. The natural experiment in this region of high-income European countries with high consumption levels highlights the importance of effective alcohol control policies for improving population health.

What was the impact of tobacco taxes on smoking prevalence and coronary heart disease mortality in the United States -2005-2016, and did it vary by race and gender?

Tobacco taxes have reduced smoking and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, yet few studies have examined heterogeneity of these associations by race and gender. We constructed a yearly panel (2005-2016) that included age-adjusted cigarette smoking prevalence and CHD mortality rates across all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research. We examined associations between changes in total cigarette excise taxes (i.e., federal and state) and changes in smoking prevalence and CHD mortality, using linear regression models with state and year fixed effects. Each dollar of tobacco tax was associated with a reduction in age-adjusted smoking prevalence 1 year later of -0.4 [95% CIs: -0.6, -0.2] percentage points; and a relative reduction in the rate of CHD mortality 2 years later of -2.0% [95% CIs: -3.7%, -0.3%], or -5 deaths/100,000 in absolute terms. Associations between tobacco taxes and smoking prevalence were statistically significantly different by race and gender and were strongest among Black non-Hispanic women (-1.2 [95% CIs: -1.6, -0.8] percentage points). Associations between tobacco taxes and CHD mortality were not statistically significantly different by race and gender, but point estimates for percent changes were highest among Black non-Hispanic men (-2.9%) and Black non-Hispanic women (-3.5%) compared to White non-Hispanic men (-1.8%) and White non-Hispanic women (-1.5%). These findings suggest that tobacco taxation is an effective intervention for reducing smoking prevalence and CHD mortality among White and Black non-Hispanic populations in the United States.

Global taxation of electronic nicotine and non-nicotine delivery systems: a cross-country evaluation

BACKGROUND

Taxation is a key component of tobacco products' regulation given its proven effectiveness to generate revenue and achieve public health goals. The diversity of the market for e-cigarettes (electronic nicotine delivery systems and electronic non-nicotine delivery systems, ENDS/ENNDS) complicates comparative analyses per unit, thus challenging efforts to assess countries' excise tax burdens for e-cigarettes. Further complicating taxes on e-cigarettes is the necessity to balance two public health priorities: (1) deterring initiation among people who have never smoked, and (2) supporting cessation efforts among people currently smoking or who previously smoked. This study evaluates and compares excise tax burdens and tax system characteristics of e-cigarettes across 54 countries.

METHODS

To determine countries' excise tax burdens per millilitre of e-liquid, we collect a unique database of tax characteristics and prices in countries where ENDS/ENNDS are currently sold. We calculate the excise tax per millilitre of e-liquid and convert e-liquid prices to a comparable price per millilitre across countries.

RESULTS

Thirty countries employ a specific excise system, 10 apply an ad valorem system, 9 apply a tiered specific system, 1 applies a tiered ad valorem system and 4 apply a mixed tax system. The excise tax burden is highest in Belarus (87.2%, specific), Norway (81.2%, tiered specific) and Egypt (74.7%, mixed), and lowest in Costa Rica (7.4%, ad valorem), Paraguay (2.9%, ad valorem) and Croatia (0%, specific).

CONCLUSION

The advantages of one tax system over another are context specific. Tax burdens tend to be much larger in countries that use a specific tax than in countries that use a value-based (ad valorem) tax.

Tobacco purchasing in Australia during regular tax increases: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project

OBJECTIVE

We examined Australian tobacco purchasing trends, the average self-reported price paid within each purchase type and the association between type of tobacco product purchased and participant characteristics, including quit intentions, between 2007 and 2020.

METHODS

We analysed data collected from adults who smoked factory-made and/or roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes in nine waves (2007-2020) of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Australia Survey (nsample=5452, nobservations=11 534). The main outcome measures were type of tobacco products purchased: RYO, carton, pack or pouch size and brand segment. Logistic regression, fit using generalised estimating equations, was estimated the association between the outcome and participant characteristics.

RESULTS

The reported price-minimising purchasing patterns increased from 2007 to 2020: any RYO (23.8-43.9%), large-sized pack (2007: 24.0% to 2016: 34.3%); shifting from large-sized to small-sized packs (2020: 37.7%), and economy brand (2007: 37.2% to 2020: 59.3%); shifting from large (2007: 55.8%) to small economy packs (2014: 15.3% to 2020: 48.1%). Individuals with a lower income, a higher nicotine dependence level and no quit intention were more likely to purchase RYO and large-sized packs.

CONCLUSION

RYO, large-sized packs and products with a low upfront cost (eg, small RYO pouches and small-sized economy brand packs) may appeal to people on low incomes. Australia's diverse tobacco pack and pouch sizes allow the tobacco industry to influence tobacco purchases. Standardising pack and pouch sizes may reduce some price-related marketing and especially benefit people who have a low income, are highly addicted and have no quit intention.

How has the tobacco industry passed tax changes through to consumers in 12 sub-Saharan African countries?

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco taxation is only effective in reducing consumption when it is translated into higher prices. This study aims to investigate to what extent the tobacco industry (TI) passes tax increases over to consumers by increasing the retail price of cigarettes in 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.

METHODS

African Cigarette Prices Project and WHO's Global Tobacco Epidemic Reports data were used to calculate the rate of tax pass-through by decomposing the retail price of cigarettes into tax and net prices between 2016 and 2020. Percentage change in net price was used to identify industry pricing behaviour, in both packs and single-stick sales. TI pricing strategies were examined by country, producer type, producers, and cigarette price segment.

RESULTS

There were mixed TI strategies, with taxes primarily overshifted (Botswana, Madagascar, Tanzania, Zimbabwe), undershifted (Ethiopia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia) or a mix of both (Malawi, Nigeria). The detail varied between countries, over time, and between the different brands/segments offered. Patterns for single-stick sales were broadly similar to that of packs but with some differences observed in particular countries/years. Pricing strategies for the various transnational tobacco companies and domestic producers were similar but the changes in net price for the latter were larger. The country tax level/type and the size of tax change did not seem to be an obvious influence.

CONCLUSION

This paper provides an overview of TI pricing strategies in response to tax increases in SSA. Governments must monitor how the TI responds to tax changes to ensure that tax increases are effective in impacting price.

Crowding out and impoverishing effect of tobacco in Mexico

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco is one of the world's largest preventable causes of premature death, accounting for more than 8 million deaths and costing the global economy US$1.4 trillion each year. Smoking is a global problem with 1.3 billion people using tobacco worldwide, who will face harmful effects on health and on people's current and future financial situations and quality of life.This article aims to be the first study to generate evidence on the effects of smoking on household expenditure and the number of people living under the poverty threshold by studying the crowding out and impoverishing effect in Mexico.

METHODS

Through econometric methods and maximising a household utility function we estimate the crowding out and impoverishing effect of tobacco consumption in México based on household's income and spending survey from 2020.

RESULTS

Spending on tobacco crowds out household spending on other goods and services. In Mexico, spending on tobacco results in decreased spending on essential goods and services, like education and healthcare, and increased spending on harmful goods such as alcoholic beverages. These effects are common across all income levels but are more pronounced in low-income households. When spending on tobacco increases, for example, following regular price increases made by the tobacco industry, the crowding out effect is exacerbated.In addition, smoking has an impoverishing effect on the population. This is because some families find that their remaining income level falls below the poverty line after deducting money spent on tobacco (a concept known as secondary poverty). In Mexico, 909 132 people are left with a disposable income level below the extreme poverty line because of expenditure on tobacco and smoking-related diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking affects individual health and the finances of households in Mexico, particularly those of low-income people. By increasing tobacco taxes, those who quit smoking increase their quality of life and well-being. However, those who continue to smoke and increase their tobacco spending are affected by a shift in their spending on other goods and services.The increase in tobacco taxes must be accompanied by public policies that help reduce tobacco consumption and compensate the crowding out on goods and services relevant to the development of households.

Price elasticity of cigarette smoking in Bangladesh: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys (GATS)

INTRODUCTION

The overall prevalence of cigarette smoking has not changed significantly for over a decade in Bangladesh. Raising the price of cigarettes through taxation is an important policy instrument for reducing consumption and achieving public health goals. The price elasticity of cigarette demand is an important parameter for evaluating the effectiveness of raising prices through tax increases in reducing cigarette consumption. The objective of the study was to estimate the price elasticity of cigarette demand in Bangladesh using Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2009 and 2017 data.

METHODS

Smoking prevalence and smoking intensity were estimated using a two-part model. Endogeneity of prices was minimised using the average consumption-weighted cigarette price in a cluster, for both smokers and non-smokers residing in a specific cluster.

RESULTS

Cigarette demand was found to be price inelastic and ranged between -0.51 and -0.73. It is also price inelastic across wealth groups and areas of residence in Bangladesh. Although the total price elasticity did not differ considerably between rural and urban locations, it is evident that individuals in the lower-wealth group are more than twice as responsive to price increases as their high-wealth counterparts.

CONCLUSION

A significant increase in cigarette prices through a tax increase would decrease smoking prevalence and increase tax revenue in Bangladesh. The greater price sensitivity among smokers in lower-wealth groups indicates that a tax-induced cigarette price increase would provide more health benefits to them, thereby contributing to improved health equity.

Narrative dataset of fiscal actions in the EU new member states

The dataset encompasses discretionary fiscal actions in the group of 11 EU New Member States (NMS), which so far have been under-researched, spanning from 2004 to 2019. It extends the narrative dataset of fiscal actions in Advanced Economies created by [1]. Information on actions and their estimated fiscal effects was collected from annually published Convergence or Stability Programmes. Individual actions were classified according to the relevant category of government expenditure and revenue (in line with the classification proposed by [1]) and identified as either exogenous or endogenous (based on the distinction introduced by [3]). The raw data were then aggregated into fiscal plans, by country and announcement year. Finally, two spreadsheets were created. The baseline spreadsheet contains only fiscal consolidation episodes, following the method of [1], while the alternative dataset includes both consolidation and expansion fiscal plans, which extends the methodological approach of [1]. Moreover, in the alternative dataset, the time span of fiscal effects is extended from 5 to 8 years (the longest available) and dividends are added. Dividends represent a category of public revenue not included in [1], but they are non-negligible in the case of the NMS due to the post-socialist legacy.

Effect of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette and cigarette retail prices and sales, USA, 2014-2019

OBJECTIVE

To use a standardised e-cigarette tax measure to examine the impact of e-cigarette taxes on the price and sales of e-cigarettes and cigarettes in the USA.

DESIGN

We used State Line versions of NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from quarter 4 of 2014 through quarter 4 of 2019 to calculate e-cigarette and cigarette prices and sales in 23 US states. We then estimated how these outcomes are associated with standardised state-level e-cigarette taxes, controlling for state fixed effects, quarter-by-year fixed effects, cigarette taxes, other tobacco control policies and other state-level time-varying characteristics.

RESULTS

A real $1 increase in the e-cigarette standardised tax increases the price of 1 mL of e-liquid between $0.43 and $0.59 depending on specification. Controlling for fixed effects and cigarette taxes, a 10% increase in e-cigarette taxes is estimated to reduce e-cigarette sales by 0.5% and increase cigarette sales by 0.1%, though both results are attenuated and statistically insignificant in a model with full controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study finds that e-cigarette taxes increase e-cigarette retail prices by approximately half of the tax. Further, e-cigarette taxes are associated with reduced sales of e-cigarettes and increased sales of cigarettes in some specifications. Our estimates are sizably lower than from other studies using sales and survey data.

Marketing Responses to the Taxation of Soft Drinks Comment on "Understanding Marketing Responses to a Tax on Sugary Drinks: A Qualitative Interview Study in the United Kingdom, 2019"

The paper by Forde et al provides a useful qualitative consideration of marketing responses to the implementation of the 2018 Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom. This commentary discusses that paper and its conclusions and seeks to place them in a broader context for marketing, fiscal measures and health and public policy. It suggests that modern conceptualisations of marketing and wider considerations of market and non-market strategies could provide a valuable lens to understand the ways in which companies and sectors respond to the threats they perceive and the constantly changing sectoral opportunities. It is important that fiscal measures introduced have the desired effects, and that not only positive behaviours (whether of companies or consumers) are incentivised, but that adverse behaviours are actively disincentivised.

Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues

BACKGROUND

In November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the Cigarette Tax Scorecard which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components-cigarette price, affordability change, tax share and tax structure. This study examines the relationship between the overall cigarette tax score and tobacco excise tax revenue between 2014 and 2018.

METHODS

Using cigarette tax scores from the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard and tobacco excise tax revenue information from WHO, this analysis is based on ordinary least squares estimations to assess the association between the overall cigarette tax scores and tobacco excise tax revenues per capita controlling for countries' tobacco control environment, sociodemographic characteristics and country and year fixed effects.

RESULTS

A 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.98 (in constant 2018 purchasing power parity international dollars). For low and middle-income countries and lower performing countries at baseline, a 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.32 and $6.92, respectively. If all countries had increased their scores to '5', the tobacco excise tax revenue per capita would have increased by 22.51%.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher overall cigarette tax scores are associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita. Countries aiming to reach higher cigarette tax scores would be able to reduce tobacco use and increase their tobacco tax revenue, which can be allocated to development priorities.

Optimized profit repatriation in multinational enterprises through cross-border change of legal form and international tax management

This article shows for the first time that the cross-border change of legal form can be used for tax-optimized profit repatriation. By means of a cross-border change of legal form of the foreign EU corporation prior to distribution into another foreign EU corporation with subsequent dividend distribution after the cross-border change of legal form has taken place, the taxation of dividends with withholding tax can be avoided. This study develops and discusses this strategy for the first time and transfers it specifically to U.S. shareholders of European corporations. Moreover, this strategy is relevant in general for all shareholders of European corporations, irrespective of their residence, to get tax-optimized profit repatriation of dividends (retained earnings) and to avoid the problem of treaty shopping, which has been significantly strengthened by the introduction of the ATAD/BEPS principal purpose test (PPT) in all EU Member States. The study extends the state of knowledge in the area of international taxation, international mergers, finance and strategy.

Effect of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on sugars intake and dental caries: an umbrella review of a global perspective

BACKGROUND

As part of the Global Strategy on Oral health, the World Health Organization (WHO) is exploring cost-effective interventions for oral health, including taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). To inform this process, this umbrella review aimed to identify the best available estimates pertaining to the impact of SSB taxation on the reduction of sugars intake, and the sugars-caries dose-response, such that estimates of the impact of SSB taxation on averting dental caries in both high (HIC) and low and middle (LMIC) countries be available.

METHODS

The questions addressed were: (1) what are the effects of SSB taxation on consumption of SSBs and (2) sugars? (3) What is the effect on caries of decreasing sugars? and (4) what is the likely impact of a 20% volumetric SSB tax on the number of active caries prevented over 10 years? Data sources included PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, Dentistry and Oral Sciences Source, Cochrane Library, Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Systematic Review Register, and PROSPERO. The review was conducted with reference to JBI guidelines. The quality of included systematic reviews was assessed using AMSTAR to identify best evidence.

RESULTS

From 419 systematic reviews identified for questions 1 & 2, and 103 for question 3, 48 (Questions 1 & 2) and 21 (Question 3) underwent full text screening, yielding 14 and five included reviews respectively. Best available data indicated a 10% tax would reduce SSB intake by 10.0% (95% CI: -5.0, 14.7%) in HIC and by 9% (range -6.0 to 12.0%) in LMIC, and that a 20% tax would reduce free sugars intake on average by 4.0 g/d in LMIC and 4.4 g/d in HIC. Based on best available dose response data, this could reduce the number of teeth with caries per adults (HIC and LMIC) by 0.03 and caries occurrence in children by 2.7% (LMIC) and 2.9% (HIC), over a 10-year period.

CONCLUSION

Best available data suggest a 20% volumetric SSB tax would have a modest impact on prevalence and severity of dental caries in both HIC and LMIC.

An overlooked market: loose cigarettes, informal vendors and their implications for tobacco taxation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the features of markets for loose cigarettes in several low-income and middle-income countries and their effects on tobacco control policies, particularly taxation.

DESIGN

An analysis of survey data targeting people who smoke in two African, one Southeast Asian and two South Asian countries and retailers across 16 African countries to study loose cigarette markets and examine how prices in these markets move relative to the prices for cigarette packs.

RESULTS

Markets for loose cigarettes are large, and their consumer base tends to differ from the wider population of people who smoke. Loose cigarette prices are on average higher than those of cigarettes bought in packs, and they respond differently to tax increases, at least partially due to a denomination effect.

CONCLUSIONS

The features of the loose cigarette markets present a challenge for tobacco control policy, especially tobacco tax policy. One way to overcome this challenge is to aim for large, rather than incremental, tax increases.

A hybrid machine learning-mathematical programming optimization approach for municipal solid waste management during the pandemic

This paper provides a mathematical optimization strategy for optimal municipal solid waste management in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. This strategy integrates two approaches: optimization and machine learning models. First, the optimization model determines the optimal supply chain for the municipal waste management system. Then, machine learning prediction models estimate the required parameters over time, which helps generate future projections for the proposed strategy. The optimization model was coded in the General Algebraic Modeling System, while the prediction model was coded in the Python programming environment. A case study of New York City was addressed to evaluate the proposed strategy, which includes extensive socioeconomic data sets to train the machine learning model. We found the predicted waste collection over time based on the socioeconomic data. The results show trade-offs between the economic (profit) and environmental (waste sent to landfill) objectives for future scenarios, which can be helpful for possible pandemic scenarios in the following years.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-03354-2.

Small Business Property Tax Reductions and Firm Productivity

We investigate the productivity spillovers from the UK government's decision to use extensive property tax reductions as a key instrument to stimulate innovation in smaller businesses and drive local growth. To capture the complex interaction and clustering of hierarchical effects, we apply non-parametric Random Effects Expectation Maximisation algorithm that complements more standard econometric estimators, namely matching to control for endogeneity and control functions to estimate total factor productivity. These approaches enabled us to incorporate various contextual configurations in comparing the recipients of these reductions to non-recipients with regard to productivity, in which the UK has experienced a considerably worse performance than its peers since the great recession. Contrary to policy assumptions and business community expectations, we show that generic tax reductions, when significant, are mostly associated with lower productivity and thus have been unsuitably chosen as a policy mechanism to stimulate productivity growth. We further show how instruments that are not built for causality could be beneficial for policy evaluation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11187-023-00768-0.

Improving alcohol health literacy and reducing alcohol consumption: recommendations for Germany

BACKGROUND

Although the detrimental health effects of alcohol are well established, consumption levels are high in many high-income countries such as Germany. Improving alcohol health literacy presents an integrated approach to alcohol prevention and an important complement to alcohol policy. Our aim was to identify and prioritize measures to enhance alcohol health literacy and hence to reduce alcohol consumption, using Germany as an example.

METHODS

A series of recommendations for improving alcohol health literacy were derived from a review of the literature and subsequently rated by five experts. Recommendations were rated according to their likely impact on enhancing (a) alcohol health literacy and (b) reducing alcohol consumption. Inter-rater agreement was assessed using a two-way intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC).

RESULTS

Eleven recommendations were established for three areas of action: (1) education and information, (2) health care system, and (3) alcohol control policy. Education and information measures were rated high to increase alcohol health literacy but low to their impact on alcohol consumption, while this pattern was reversed for alcohol control policies. The ratings showed good agreement (ICC: 0.85-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Improving alcohol health literacy and reducing alcohol consumption should be considered complementary and become part of a comprehensive alcohol strategy to curb the health, social, and economic burden of alcohol.

Impact of tobacco spending on intrahousehold resource allocation in Montenegro

BACKGROUND

The main goal of this study is to estimate the crowding out impact of tobacco expenditures on the household budget allocation to other mutually exclusive commodity groups in Montenegro.

METHODOLOGY

The analysis uses the Household Budget Survey data from 2005 to 2017 to estimate a system of Engel curves using a three-stage least squares approach. As the tobacco expenditure variable is endogenous to budget shares on other consumption items, instrumental variables were included to obtain consistent estimates.

RESULTS

Overall, the results confirm the existence of the crowding out effect of tobacco spending on various commodities, such as some food items (eg, cereals, fruits and vegetables and dairy products), clothing, housing and utilities, education and recreation while a positive effect of tobacco consumption was estimated on budget shares on bars and restaurants, alcohol, coffee and sugary drinks. These results are consistent throughout the income groups of households. The estimates indicate that an increase in tobacco expenditures leads to reduction in budget shares on essential goods, which is likely to have negative impacts on the household living standard.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco expenditure crowds out household spending on necessities, especially in case of the poorest households, thus increasing inequality, hampering human capital development and potentially causing long-term adverse effects on the households in Montenegro. Our results are similar to evidence from other low and middle-income countries. This paper contributes to the analysis of the crowding out effect of tobacco consumption, which was conducted for the first time in Montenegro.

Health, economic and social burden of tobacco in Latin America and the expected gains of fully implementing taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments control measures: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the tobacco-attributable burden on disease, medical costs, productivity losses and informal caregiving; and to estimate the health and economic gains that can be achieved if the main tobacco control measures (raising taxes on tobacco, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments) are fully implemented in eight countries that encompass 80% of the Latin American population.

DESIGN

Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, costs and quality of life associated with the main tobacco-related diseases. Model inputs and data on labour productivity, informal caregivers' burden and interventions' effectiveness were obtained through literature review, surveys, civil registrations, vital statistics and hospital databases. Epidemiological and economic data from January to October 2020 were used to populate the model.

FINDINGS

In these eight countries, smoking is responsible each year for 351 000 deaths, 2.25 million disease events, 12.2 million healthy years of life lost, US$22.8 billion in direct medical costs, US$16.2 billion in lost productivity and US$10.8 billion in caregiver costs. These economic losses represent 1.4% of countries' aggregated gross domestic products. The full implementation and enforcement of the four strategies: taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments would avert 271 000, 78 000, 71 000 and 39 000 deaths, respectively, in the next 10 years, and result in US$63.8, US$12.3, US$11.4 and US$5.7 billions in economic gains, respectively, on top of the benefits being achieved today by the current level of implementation of these measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking represents a substantial burden in Latin America. The full implementation of tobacco control measures could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce healthcare spending and caregiver and productivity losses, likely resulting in large net economic benefits.

Unrecorded alcohol use in 33 European countries: Analyses of a comparative survey with 49,000 people who use alcohol

BACKGROUND

Using data from 33 European countries (including all EU member states), this study aimed to 1) estimate the prevalence of unrecorded alcohol use among past-week alcohol users, 2) describe how unrecorded alcohol use is associated with drinking patterns, and 3) estimate the contribution of unrecorded alcohol to the total amount of alcohol consumed annually in these countries.

METHODS

Data from 25,728 adults who drank alcohol in the past week and self-reported their use of unrecorded alcohol in 2021 were analysed. Prevalence of unrecorded alcohol use in the last week was estimated for those with low, medium, and high risk drinking categorised using the WHO-recommended risk thresholds and definition of risky single occasion drinking. Prevalence estimates were weighted for the country-specific gender, age, and geographical population distribution. An adjusted weighted proportion of unrecorded drinking occasions in total drinking occasions was calculated and compared to 2020 recorded annual per capita consumption estimates.

RESULTS

Among past-week alcohol users, the average prevalence of past-week unrecorded alcohol use was 12.1% (95% CI: 11.7-12.5%), with considerable difference between countries (min: 2.0% in Malta; max: 27.0% in Greece). Unrecorded alcohol use was much more prevalent among people with high-risk alcohol use in the past week (24.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.9-25.5%) compared to people with low- (6.5, 95% CI: 6.0-6.9%) or medium-risk alcohol intake in the past week (13.6%, 95% CI: 12.9-14.3%). Unrecorded alcohol accounted for 7% of per capita consumption in 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first comparable assessment of unrecorded alcohol use across EU and affiliated countries. The findings add support to the observation that availability of unrecorded alcohol may contribute to risky drinking in Europe. The observed country variations may be related to differences in country-specific pricing policies and measures to reduce the production and consumption of unrecorded alcoholic beverages.

Response of legal and illegal cigarette prices to a tax increase in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

In 2020, Ethiopia passed a landmark tax proclamation implementing an evidence-based mixed excise system aimed at curbing tobacco use. This study evaluates the impact of the tax increase of more than 600% on both legal and illegal cigarette prices in order to gauge the impact of the tax reform in the presence of a sizeable illicit cigarette market.

METHODS

Data on 1774 cigarette prices were obtained from retailers during Empty Cigarette Pack Surveys in the capital and major regional cities conducted in 2018 and 2022. Packs were categorised as 'legal' or 'illicit' using criteria from the tobacco control directives. Descriptive and regression analyses were used to study the cigarette price changes during the period of 2018-2022, capturing the impact of the 2020 tax increase.

RESULT

Prices of both legal and illegal cigarettes increased in response to the tax increase. In 2018, the stick prices ranged from ETB0.88 (Ethiopian birr) to ETB5.00 for legal cigarettes while they ranged from ETB0.75 to ETB3.25 for illegal ones. In 2022, a legal stick sold for ETB01.50-ETB2.73 and an illegal stick for ETB1.92-ETB8.00. The average real price of legal and illegal brands increased by 18% and 37%, respectively. The multivariate analysis confirms that prices of illicit cigarettes grew faster compared with the legal ones. By 2022, illicit brands were on average more expensive compared with their legal counterparts. This result is statistically significant at p<0.01.

CONCLUSION

The prices of both legal and illegal cigarettes increased following the 2020 tax increase, with the average real cigarette price increasing by 24%. As a result, the tax increase likely had a positive impact on public health despite a sizeable illicit cigarette market.

On the impacts of higher tobacco taxes in Argentina: a computable general equilibrium approach

OBJECTIVES

We analyse the employment effects of increasing tobacco taxation in Argentina by building a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.

METHODS

In line with recent changes in tobacco taxation in the country, the CGE model simulates an increase in excise tax on cigarettes.

RESULTS

The results show that even a substantial increase in tobacco taxation induces a zero-net change in overall employment in the economy when the newly raised tax revenues are spent by the government on education, health or public infrastructure. Increased tobacco taxes may shift jobs from tobacco-related sectors to other sectors of the economy, but the overall impact on the total number of jobs is negligible.

CONCLUSIONS

The widely documented positive effects of higher tobacco taxes (including a healthier population, more productive workers, savings from avoided costs of medical treatment for tobacco-related diseases, reductions in the number of new young smokers, among others) would far outweigh the nearly null effect of higher taxes on total net employment.

Remittances and Revenue in Latin America, 1990-2017

Do international remittances increase government tax income in developing economies? This study investigates remittances' relationship to revenue within Latin American countries. The author builds on recent micro-level research by conceptualizing households with remittances as a transnational dispersed interest group in the political economy of taxation. Remittances increase recipients' wealth and decouple their well-being from domestic economic processes. Together, these effects suggest that remittances generate tax preferences that align more closely with promarket tax policies offered by the political right while decreasing the value of social protection expenditures. The author hypothesizes that these effects lead remittances to boost tax revenue when the right governs, but not the left. However, shifts to the left limit remittances' effect on revenue by decreasing income from direct taxes on wealth. Results from time-series error correction models, an event-study analysis, and twostage least squares models support these expectations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12116-023-09390-3.

A bibliometric review of global visibility, impact and adoption of electronic invoicing: The past and the future

The objective of this study is to conduct a bibliometric review of literature on electronic invoicing to provide an understanding of the growing field and valuable sources for future research. A total of 191 papers within the period of 1997 to July 2021 were included in our analysis. The systemic analysis revealed several insights in research progression over two decades, relevant authors and leading institutions including countries, most frequent keywords, and the principal methodologies and theories adopted. Although the field of electronic invoicing is still emerging, it is interesting to see trending keywords such as 'data mining', 'automation', 'blockchain', 'digital storage', and 'machine learning' as demonstrated in recent publications. The study also attempted to develop a framework and proposed an integrated theory of electronic invoicing since the general theoretical framework does not exist in the literature. Several research gaps were exposed related to more studies in the emerging field of electronic invoicing and how future studies could further shape the field by addressing yet unanswered questions. We anticipate that the findings in this study will be a valuable contribution and resource for e-invoicing research.

Macroeconomic impact of tobacco taxation in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

A significant tobacco tax increase has long been advocated to reduce Indonesia's high smoking prevalence. However, implementing such a policy remains challenging due to the tobacco industry's argument that it would negatively impact the economy.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net impact of tobacco taxation on Indonesia's economy.

METHOD

The impact of the tax hike on the economy is simulated through a change in cigarette demand and reallocation of household's budget and allocation government spending from additional tobacco tax revenue. Input-output analysis is employed to estimate the net effect of the tobacco tax rise on the total economic output, income and employment in Indonesia.

FINDING

Increasing the tobacco tax would generate a net positive impact on the economy as it would increase economic output, household income and employment. The positive impact is mainly driven by government spending from additional revenue from increased tobacco taxes. Spending tax revenue using the current structure of government spending has the potential to generate the optimal economic effect. Increasing tobacco tax by 45% from the 2019 tax level would increase economic output, household income and employment by Rp84.2 trillion, Rp24.1 trillion and 400.3 thousand jobs, respectively.

Economic cost of cigarette smoking in Bosnia and Herzegovina

BACKGROUND

Cigarette use is one of the major risk factors for non-communicable diseases in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 41.1% of adults being current smokers in 2019 and almost half of current smokers using more than 20 cigarettes per day.

METHODS

This study applies the prevalence-based, cost-of-illness approach to estimate the annual economic cost of smoking in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2019.

RESULTS

The study estimates that cigarette use by adults in Bosnia and Herzegovina caused between 24.4% and 42.8% of all deaths in 2019 and a total economic cost of between €367.5 and €635.1 million (2.0%-3.5% of gross domestic product). The direct costs represent the largest share of the total cost (between 1.0% and 1.7% of gross domestic product).

CONCLUSION

Cigarette use imposes a significant health and economic burden in the society of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Various tobacco control measures can be implemented to prevent and reduce tobacco consumption and the negative health consequences of tobacco use. Numerous studies have shown taxes on tobacco products are very effective in reducing tobacco use, especially among certain demographic groups, such as youth and low-income individuals. Smoke-free laws have also shown benefits. Other policy measures that can be implemented include restrictions to advertising, limitations on who can purchase tobacco products, how and where they can be purchased, etc. In addition, governments could also implement various education programmes on the negative health consequences of smoking. The results of this study provide information that calls for prompt and strengthened implementation of tobacco control measures to reduce cigarette consumption in the country and improve the health outcomes and productivity of its inhabitants.

Affordability of Alcoholic Beverages in the European Union

BACKGROUND

From a public health perspective, alcohol taxation should be designed to reduce alcohol affordability and thus alcohol consumption and related harms.

OBJECTIVES

In this brief report, we estimate alcohol affordability in European Union Member States and associated countries and investigate whether affordability is related to national alcohol excise duties.

METHOD

Beverage-specific affordability for beer, wine, and spirits were estimated based on the number of standard drinks a household could purchase based on their median monthly disposable household income in 2020. To determine the pooled affordability of alcohol, the beverage-specific estimates were weighted by the share of the beverage-specific per capita consumption in total recorded consumption. Pearson and Spearman rank correlations were calculated to establish the association between alcohol affordability and alcohol excise duty rates. All data were retrieved from official sources.

RESULTS

On average, a European household can purchase 1,628 standard drinks of alcohol with its monthly income, with affordability being highest in Germany, Austria, France, and Luxembourg. The affordability of spirits, but not that of beer or wine, was inversely correlated with the beverage-specific excise duty rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol is affordable in the Member States of the European Union and associated countries, and low levels of excise duties on beer and wine appear to be unrelated to their affordability. Alcohol taxes should be increased to effectively reduce the affordability of alcoholic beverages in order to lower the alcohol-related health burden in Europe.

Sugar-sweetened beverage purchases in urban Peru before the implementation of taxation and warning label policies: a baseline study

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption is associated with obesity and chronic disease. In 2018, Peru increased the tax on high-sugar beverages (≥6 g of sugar per 100 mL) from 17 to 25%, yet little is known about pre-existing beverage trends or demographic characteristics associated with purchases in the country. The aim of this study was to explore beverage purchasing trends from 2016 to 2017 and examine variation in purchase volume by sociodemographic characteristics among urban households in Peru.

METHODS

This study used monthly household purchase data from a panel of 5145 households from January 2016-December 2017 from Kantar WorldPanel Peru. Beverage purchases were categorized by type and tax status under the 2018 regulation (untaxed, lower-sugar taxed, high-sugar taxed). To assess beverage purchasing trends, per-capita volume purchases were regressed on a linear time trend, with month dummies for seasonality and clustered standard errors. Mean volume purchases by beverage tax status (total liters purchased per month), overall and by key demographic characteristics (education, socioeconomic status, and geographic region), were calculated. Mean volume by beverage type was assessed to identify the largest contributors to total beverage volume.

RESULTS

The trends analysis showed a decline in total beverage volume of - 52 mL/capita/month (95% CI: - 72, - 32) during the 24-month study period. Over 99% of households purchased untaxed beverages in a month, while > 92% purchased high-sugar taxed beverages. Less than half of all households purchased low-sugar taxed beverages in a month and purchase volume was low (0.3 L/capita/month). Untaxed beverage purchases averaged 9.4 L/capita/month, while households purchased 2.8 L/capita/month of high-sugar taxed beverages in 2017. Across tax categories, volume purchases were largest in the high education and high socioeconomic (SES) groups, with substantial variation by geographic region. The highest volume taxed beverage was soda (2.3 L/capita/month), while the highest volume untaxed beverages were milk and bottled water (1.9 and 1.7 L/capita/month, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly all households purchased high-sugar taxed beverages, although volume purchases of taxed and untaxed beverages declined slightly from 2016 to 2017. Households with high SES and high education purchased the highest volume of taxed beverages, highlighting the need to consider possible differential impacts of the tax policy change by sub-population groups.

International taxation sentiment and COVID-19 crisis

Investigating public sentiment regarding tax policy during the COVID-19 pandemic could be useful for understanding the experiences across societies. Using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count to investigate and quantitatively measure the pandemic's effect-from January 25 to April 9, 2020-on the sentiment regarding possible tax policies throughout the world, thereby determining that, overall, taxation sentiment is reduced as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases grows. Further investigation reveals that, as COVID-19 spreads, the sentiment for raising taxes decreases and that for reducing taxes increases, and this effect is mitigated by countries' democracy. We further find that news sentiment in unofficial media and in countries with low social trust is more significantly affected by COVID-19. Robustness tests performed using different subsamples of developed and developing countries and different pandemic circumstances validate our findings. This research has crucial implications for policy evaluation and development.

Effect of flavored E-cigarette bans in the United States: What does the evidence show?

The United States federal government, along with many state and local governments, have passed restrictions on electronic cigarette ("e-cigarette") sales with the stated purpose of preventing youth use of these products. The justification for these restrictions includes the argument that youth e-cigarette use will re-normalize youth smoking, leading to increased rates of cigarette smoking by teenagers. However, in this paper, we propose an evidence-based version of this model based on several years' worth of longitudinal and econometric research, which suggests that youth e-cigarette use has instead worked to replace a culture of youth smoking. From this analysis, we propose a re-evaluation of current policies surrounding e-cigarette sales so that declines in e-cigarette use will not come at the cost of increasing cigarette use among youth and adults.

Do alcohol control policies have the predicted effects on consumption? An analysis of the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020

BACKGROUND

Many population-based alcohol control policies are postulated to work via changes in adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC). However, since APC is usually assessed on a yearly basis, often there are not enough data to conduct interrupted time-series or other controlled analyses. The current dataset, with 21 years of observation from four countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland), had sufficient power to test for average effects and potential interactions of the World Health Organization's (WHO) three "best buys" for alcohol control: taxation increases leading to a decrease in affordability; reduced availability (via a decrease in opening hours of at least 20 %); and advertising and marketing restrictions. We postulated that the former two would have immediate effects, while the latter would have mid- to long-term effects.

METHODS

Linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

Taxation increases and availability reductions in all countries were associated with an average reduction in APC of 0.83 litres (ℓ) of pure alcohol per year (95 % confidence interval: -1.21 ℓ, -0.41 ℓ) in the same year, with no significant differences between countries. Restrictions on advertising and/or marketing had no significant immediate associations with APC (average effect 0.04 ℓ per year; 95 % confidence interval: -0.65 ℓ, 0.73 ℓ). Several sensitivity analyses corroborated these main results.

CONCLUSIONS

The WHO "best buy" alcohol control policies of taxation increases and availability restrictions worked as postulated in these four northeastern European Union countries.

The effects of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette prices and tobacco product sales: Evidence from retail panel data

We estimate the effect of e-cigarette tax rates on e-cigarette prices, e-cigarette sales, and sales of other tobacco products using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from 2013 to 2019. We find that 90% of e-cigarette taxes are passed on to consumer retail prices. We then estimate reduced form and instrumental variables regressions to examine the effects of e-cigarette and cigarette taxes and prices on sales. We calculate an e-cigarette own-price elasticity of -2.2 and particularly large elasticity of demand for flavored e-cigarettes. Further, we document a cigarette own-price elasticity of -0.4 and positive cross-price elasticities of demand between e-cigarettes and cigarettes, suggesting economic substitution.

Wealth Without Limits: in Defense of Billionaires

In this essay we argue against preventing people from amassing extreme wealth via increased taxation. The first argument in favor of such a proposal, recently advanced by Ingrid Robeyns (2018), states that billionaires' resources would be better spent addressing morally important goals such as meeting disadvantaged people's needs and solving collective action problems. In response to this claim, we argue that billionaires are typically in a better position to benefit the poor and to solve collective action problems than public officials. The second argument in favor of preventing extreme wealth accumulation, advanced by Robeyns and Robert Reich (2018), states that billionaires have an inappropriate amount of influence in public life, which undermines political equality. We argue that corporate leaders tend to be more accountable to their fellow citizens than public officials. We then consider and criticize the objection that billionaires' success is typically a result of public investment, which entitles public officials to enforce taxes that demand a return on the public investment.

Macroeconomic and distributive effects of increasing taxes in Spain

I assess the macroeconomic and redistributive effects of tax reforms aimed at increasing tax revenue in Spain. To this end, I develop a theory of entrepreneurship that mimics key facts on the wealth and income distribution in Spain. I find two reforms that raise fiscal pressure in Spain to the average value among countries in the Euro area. The first reform involves doubling the average effective tax rate on labor and business income for all individuals whose income is above a threshold level. I find that this reform reduces the inequality in after-tax income, wealth, and consumption. However, it implies a substantial GDP reduction. The second reform increases the flat tax rate on consumption by fifteen percentage points. While this reform does not reduce long-run output, it does not decrease household inequality. All in all, the desirability of the two reforms depends on the government's preferences for reducing inequality at the expense of aggregate output losses.

'Choice should be made through… educated decisions not regressive dictates': discursive framings of a proposed 'sugar tax' in Bermuda: analysis of submissions to a government consultation

Background

Several governments have introduced taxes on products with high sugar content as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Bermuda is the first jurisdiction to apply such measures in the Caribbean – a region of small island developing states and territories with high obesity prevalence and substantial reliance on imported food products. This study examines how commercial and health actors framed the proposed introduction of a 75% import tariff on high-sugar products, based on written submissions to the Bermudan government.

Methods

Eleven submissions containing written comments were analysed with reference to their framing of the proposed import tariff, the ‘problem’ of obesity, and the relationship between the two (including alternative policy approaches for tackling obesity).

Results

Key emergent frames were complexity, partnership, products, personal responsibility, affordability and evidence. Respondents favoured different framings, depending on whether they supported or opposed the proposed import duty. Commercial actors were universally opposed, presenting obesity as a ‘complex’ problem that would be better addressed through government-industry partnerships (a framing particularly favoured by international and regional business associations). Increased product range and an emphasis on personal responsibility were also positioned as policy alternatives. Health actors expressed partial support for the proposed sugar tax, although this was tempered by a perceived lack of evidence where the proposal differed from sugar taxes introduced elsewhere. Like commercial respondents, health actors framed obesity as a ‘complex’ problem and emphasised the need for other measures, including efforts to address the affordability of fruits and vegetables.

Conclusion

In responding to a proposed ‘sugar tax’ in Bermuda, commercial actors opposed the proposal and stated a clear preference for ‘partnership’ approaches to tackling obesity. Commercial responses were dominated by local businesses (with only two responses received from international or regional business associations), perhaps reflecting Bermuda’s reliance on tourism and hospitality and the specificity of the proposed intervention (that is, an import tariff rather than an excise tax). The much smaller number of responses from health actors suggests limited civil society capacity. Nevertheless, the Bermudan government successfully introduced a 75% tariff on high-sugar imports, demonstrating the potential for policy innovation to address obesity in small-island jurisdictions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12992-022-00877-7.