1
|
Ferrari AJ, Santomauro DF, Aali A, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi A, Abdullahi A, Abegaz KH, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abualruz H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Ackerman IN, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adepoju AV, Adewuyi HO, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Afzal S, Agodi A, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ajami M, Akinosoglou K, Akkaif MA, Al Hasan SM, Alalalmeh SO, Al-Aly Z, Albashtawy M, Aldridge RW, Alemu MD, Alemu YM, Alene KA, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alharrasi M, Alhassan RK, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Al-Marwani S, Almazan JU, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Altaany Z, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Alwafi H, Al-Wardat MS, Al-Worafi YM, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Ansari H, Antony CM, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyanwu PE, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Araki DT, Aravkin AY, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Ashbaugh C, Ashemo MY, Ashraf M, Asika MO, Askari E, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awotidebe AW, Awuviry-Newton K, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bah S, Bai R, Baker JL, Bakkannavar SM, Bako AT, Balakrishnan S, Bam K, Banik PC, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Bashiri Aliabadi S, Basiru A, Basu S, Basu S, Bathini PP, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayileyegn NS, Behnam B, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bell ML, Bello OO, Beloukas A, Bensenor IM, Berezvai Z, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Boxe C, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Breitner S, Brenner H, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Byun J, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Capodici A, Carr S, Carreras G, Carugno A, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cerin E, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen NM, Cheng ETW, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Cho WCS, Choi S, Chong B, Chong YY, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christensen SWM, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chutiyami M, Claassens MM, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Conde J, Cortesi PA, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalaba MA, Damiani G, Das JK, Das S, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De Leo D, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, DeCleene NK, Deeba F, Degenhardt L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demetriades AK, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desai HD, Desai R, Deuba K, Dhama K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhingra S, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz LA, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Dirac MA, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dohare S, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorsey ER, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Dube J, Dumith SC, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, ElGohary GMT, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, ELNahas G, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Eshrati B, Estep K, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faro A, Farrokhi P, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferreira N, Ferreira PH, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Force LM, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Galali Y, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganie MA, Ganiyani MA, Gardner WM, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TBB, Gebremeskel TG, Gela YY, Georgescu SR, Getachew Obsa A, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, Ghadirian F, Ghailan KY, Ghajar A, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghazy RM, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani M, Ghotbi E, Gibson RM, Gill TK, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goharinezhad S, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gona PN, Gorini G, Goulart AC, Grada A, Grivna M, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta I, Gupta M, Gupta R, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hafiz A, Hagins H, Halboub ES, Halimi A, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamilton EB, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Haro JM, Hartvigsen J, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasanian M, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Helfer B, Hemmati M, Hendrie D, Henson CA, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Hon J, Hossain MM, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsu JM, Huang J, Hugo FN, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh CK, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Iannucci VC, Ihler AL, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Irham LM, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyer M, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jeyakumar A, Jha AK, Jiang H, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamenov K, Kamyari N, Kanagasabai T, Kandel H, Kanmanthareddy AR, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karim A, Karimi SE, Karimi Y, Kasraei H, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Keshtkar K, Kesse-Guyot E, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid A, Khalid N, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan I, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khatatbeh MM, Khater AM, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Kifle ZD, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Koh HY, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulkarni V, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lafranconi A, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Le HH, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TDT, Leasher JL, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Lenzi J, Leong E, Leung J, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Y, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lindstrom M, Linn S, Liu G, Liu R, Liu S, Liu W, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, Lo CH, López-Bueno R, Loreche AM, Lorenzovici L, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lunevicius R, Lusk JB, lv H, Ma ZF, Machairas N, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Magaña Gómez JA, Maghazachi AA, Maharjan P, Mahasha PW, Maheri M, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Majeed A, Makris KC, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri P, Mansournia MA, Mantilla Herrera AM, Mantovani LG, Manu E, Marateb HR, Mardi P, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini D, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathieson S, Mathioudakis AG, Mattumpuram J, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McPhail MA, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meresa HA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Michalek IM, Miller PA, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minh LHN, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei R, Misganaw A, Mishra AK, Mitchell PB, Mittal C, Moazen B, Moberg ME, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohr RM, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mrejen M, Msherghi A, Mubarik S, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Murlimanju BV, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Nainu F, Nair S, Najmuldeen HHR, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narayana AI, Nargus S, Nascimento GG, Nashwan AJ, Nasrollahizadeh A, Nasrollahizadeh A, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nesbit OD, Netsere HB, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HQ, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nurrika D, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Oguntade AS, Oguta JO, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olasupo OO, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar HA, Omer GL, Omonisi AEE, Onie S, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Palicz T, Palladino C, Pan F, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantea Stoian AM, Pardhan S, Parikh RR, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Patel J, Patel SK, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Pereira MO, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Petri WA, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Piracha ZZ, Pirouzpanah S, Plass D, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prakash V, Prasad M, Prates EJS, Priscilla T, Pritchett N, Puri P, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Rabiee Rad M, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Rahim MJ, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani S, Rahmanian M, Rahmawaty S, Rajaa S, Ramadan MM, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao K, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rashidi MM, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo C, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Reifels L, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reshmi B, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei Hachesu P, Rezaeian M, Rickard J, Rodrigues CF, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rotimi K, Rout HS, Roy B, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, S N C, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Sallam M, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Sarikhani Y, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathyanarayan A, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sedighi M, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Setoguchi S, Seylani A, Shadid J, Shafie M, Shah H, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shayan AM, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shifa JE, Shiferaw D, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shitaye NA, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shokati Eshkiki Z, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh M, Singh P, Skou ST, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Solanki R, Soliman SSM, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Stark BA, Starodubova AV, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Steinmetz JD, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Subedi NS, Subramaniyan V, Suemoto CK, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sundström J, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabche C, Tabish M, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tandukar S, Tang H, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thayakaran R, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Thum CCC, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran JT, Tran MTN, Tran NM, Tran NH, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tyrovolas S, Udoh A, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Umar TP, Undurraga EA, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Unsworth CA, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Van den Eynde J, Varga O, Varma RP, Vart P, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Vongpradith A, Waheed Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wang N, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Wassie EG, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilandika A, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wimo A, Woldegebreal DH, Wolf AW, Wong YJ, Woolf AD, Wu C, Wu F, Wu X, Wu Z, Wulf Hanson S, Xia Y, Xiao H, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadav L, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoubi S, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yaribeygi H, Yazdanpanah MH, Ye P, Yehualashet SS, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yigzaw ZA, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu Y, Yusuf H, Zahid MH, Zakham F, Zaki L, Zaki N, Zaman BA, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zar HJ, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang H, Zhang N, Zhang Y, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhong P, Zhou J, Zhu Z, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zimsen SRM, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Zyoud SH, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00757-8. [PMID: 38642570 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00757-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
2
|
Wulf Hanson S, Abbafati C, Aerts JG, Al-Aly Z, Ashbaugh C, Ballouz T, Blyuss O, Bobkova P, Bonsel G, Borzakova S, Buonsenso D, Butnaru D, Carter A, Chu H, De Rose C, Diab MM, Ekbom E, El Tantawi M, Fomin V, Frithiof R, Gamirova A, Glybochko PV, Haagsma JA, Haghjooy Javanmard S, Hamilton EB, Harris G, Heijenbrok-Kal MH, Helbok R, Hellemons ME, Hillus D, Huijts SM, Hultström M, Jassat W, Kurth F, Larsson IM, Lipcsey M, Liu C, Loflin CD, Malinovschi A, Mao W, Mazankova L, McCulloch D, Menges D, Mohammadifard N, Munblit D, Nekliudov NA, Ogbuoji O, Osmanov IM, Peñalvo JL, Petersen MS, Puhan MA, Rahman M, Rass V, Reinig N, Ribbers GM, Ricchiuto A, Rubertsson S, Samitova E, Sarrafzadegan N, Shikhaleva A, Simpson KE, Sinatti D, Soriano JB, Spiridonova E, Steinbeis F, Svistunov AA, Valentini P, van de Water BJ, van den Berg-Emons R, Wallin E, Witzenrath M, Wu Y, Xu H, Zoller T, Adolph C, Albright J, Amlag JO, Aravkin AY, Bang-Jensen BL, Bisignano C, Castellano R, Castro E, Chakrabarti S, Collins JK, Dai X, Daoud F, Dapper C, Deen A, Duncan BB, Erickson M, Ewald SB, Ferrari AJ, Flaxman AD, Fullman N, Gamkrelidze A, Giles JR, Guo G, Hay SI, He J, Helak M, Hulland EN, Kereselidze M, Krohn KJ, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lindstrom A, Lozano R, Malta DC, Månsson J, Mantilla Herrera AM, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Nomura S, Pasovic M, Pigott DM, Reiner RC, Reinke G, Ribeiro ALP, Santomauro DF, Sholokhov A, Spurlock EE, Walcott R, Walker A, Wiysonge CS, Zheng P, Bettger JP, Murray CJL, Vos T. Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. JAMA 2022; 328:1604-1615. [PMID: 36215063 PMCID: PMC9552043 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.18931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 262] [Impact Index Per Article: 131.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 09/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Importance Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID). Objective To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration. Design, Setting, and Participants Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022. Exposures Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age. Results A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Wulf Hanson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Cristiana Abbafati
- Department of Juridical and Economic Studies, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Joachim G Aerts
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Ziyad Al-Aly
- John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, Missouri
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, US Department of Veterans Affairs, St Louis, Missouri
| | - Charlie Ashbaugh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Tala Ballouz
- Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Oleg Blyuss
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, England
- Department of Pediatrics and Pediatric Infectious Diseases, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Polina Bobkova
- Clinical Medicine (Pediatric Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Gouke Bonsel
- EuroQol Research Foundation, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Svetlana Borzakova
- Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, Moscow
- Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management, Moscow Healthcare Department, Moscow, Russia
| | - Danilo Buonsenso
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
- Global Health Research Institute, Catholic University of Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy
| | - Denis Butnaru
- I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Austin Carter
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Helen Chu
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Cristina De Rose
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Mohamed Mustafa Diab
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Emil Ekbom
- Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Victor Fomin
- Rector's Office, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Robert Frithiof
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Aysylu Gamirova
- Clinical Medicine (General Medicine Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Petr V Glybochko
- Administration Department, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Juanita A Haagsma
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard
- Applied Physiology Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Erin B Hamilton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Majanka H Heijenbrok-Kal
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Neurorehabilitation, Rijndam Rehabilitation, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Raimund Helbok
- Department of Neurology, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Merel E Hellemons
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - David Hillus
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité Medical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Susanne M Huijts
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Michael Hultström
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Department of Medical Cell Biology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Waasila Jassat
- Department of Public Health Surveillance and Response, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Florian Kurth
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité University Medical Center Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Clinical Research and Tropical Medicine, Bernhard-Nocht Institute of Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Ing-Marie Larsson
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Miklós Lipcsey
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Chelsea Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | | | - Wenhui Mao
- Center for Policy Impact in Global Health, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Lyudmila Mazankova
- Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Ministry of Healthcare of the Russian Federation, Moscow
| | | | - Dominik Menges
- Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Noushin Mohammadifard
- Isfahan Cardiovascular Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Daniel Munblit
- Department of Pediatrics and Pediatric Infectious Diseases, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, England
| | - Nikita A Nekliudov
- Clinical Medicine (General Medicine Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Osondu Ogbuoji
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Ismail M Osmanov
- Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, Moscow
- ZA Bashlyaeva Children's Municipal Clinical Hospital, Moscow, Russia
| | - José L Peñalvo
- Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
- Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Maria Skaalum Petersen
- Department of Occupational Medicine and Public Health, Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn, Faroe Islands
- Centre of Health Science, University of Faroe Islands, Torshavn
| | - Milo A Puhan
- Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Mujibur Rahman
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Verena Rass
- Department of Neurology, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Nickolas Reinig
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Gerard M Ribbers
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Antonia Ricchiuto
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Sten Rubertsson
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Hedenstierna Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Elmira Samitova
- Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Ministry of Healthcare of the Russian Federation, Moscow
- ZA Bashlyaeva Children's Municipal Clinical Hospital, Moscow, Russia
| | - Nizal Sarrafzadegan
- Isfahan Cardiovascular Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Anastasia Shikhaleva
- Clinical Medicine (Pediatric Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Kyle E Simpson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dario Sinatti
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Joan B Soriano
- Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias (Center for Biomedical Research in Respiratory Diseases Network), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ekaterina Spiridonova
- Clinical Medicine (General Medicine Profile), I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Fridolin Steinbeis
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité Medical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Andrey A Svistunov
- Administration Department, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Piero Valentini
- Department of Woman and Child Health and Public Health, Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Brittney J van de Water
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Nursing and Midwifery Department, Seed Global Health, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Rita van den Berg-Emons
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Ewa Wallin
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology, and Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Martin Witzenrath
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité University Medical Center Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- German Center for Lung Research, Berlin
| | - Yifan Wu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hanzhang Xu
- Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Thomas Zoller
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine, Charité Medical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Christopher Adolph
- Department of Political Science, University of Washington, Seattle
- Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - James Albright
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Joanne O Amlag
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Bree L Bang-Jensen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Catherine Bisignano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rachel Castellano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emma Castro
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Suman Chakrabarti
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - James K Collins
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Farah Daoud
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Carolyn Dapper
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Amanda Deen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Bruce B Duncan
- Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Megan Erickson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Samuel B Ewald
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alize J Ferrari
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Abraham D Flaxman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - John R Giles
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Gaorui Guo
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jiawei He
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Monika Helak
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Erin N Hulland
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Maia Kereselidze
- National Center for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Kris J Krohn
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alice Lazzar-Atwood
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Akiaja Lindstrom
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
- School of Public Health, Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, Australia
| | - Rafael Lozano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Deborah Carvalho Malta
- Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Johan Månsson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ana M Mantilla Herrera
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
- West Moreton Hospital Health Services, Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, Australia
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Shuhei Nomura
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health Policy, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Maja Pasovic
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Grace Reinke
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Centre of Telehealth, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Damian Francesco Santomauro
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
- Policy and Epidemiology Group, Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, Australia
| | - Aleksei Sholokhov
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emma Elizabeth Spurlock
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Rebecca Walcott
- Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ally Walker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Charles Shey Wiysonge
- Cochrane South Africa, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town
- HIV and Other Infectious Diseases Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Janet Prvu Bettger
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Wulf Hanson S, Abbafati C, Aerts JG, Al-Aly Z, Ashbaugh C, Ballouz T, Blyuss O, Bobkova P, Bonsel G, Borzakova S, Buonsenso D, Butnaru D, Carter A, Chu H, De Rose C, Diab MM, Ekbom E, El Tantawi M, Fomin V, Frithiof R, Gamirova A, Glybochko PV, Haagsma JA, Javanmard SH, Hamilton EB, Harris G, Heijenbrok-Kal MH, Helbok R, Hellemons ME, Hillus D, Huijts SM, Hultström M, Jassat W, Kurth F, Larsson IM, Lipcsey M, Liu C, Loflin CD, Malinovschi A, Mao W, Mazankova L, McCulloch D, Menges D, Mohammadifard N, Munblit D, Nekliudov NA, Ogbuoji O, Osmanov IM, Peñalvo JL, Petersen MS, Puhan MA, Rahman M, Rass V, Reinig N, Ribbers GM, Ricchiuto A, Rubertsson S, Samitova E, Sarrafzadegan N, Shikhaleva A, Simpson KE, Sinatti D, Soriano JB, Spiridonova E, Steinbeis F, Svistunov AA, Valentini P, van de Water BJ, van den Berg-Emons R, Wallin E, Witzenrath M, Wu Y, Xu H, Zoller T, Adolph C, Albright J, Amlag JO, Aravkin AY, Bang-Jensen BL, Bisignano C, Castellano R, Castro E, Chakrabarti S, Collins JK, Dai X, Daoud F, Dapper C, Deen A, Duncan BB, Erickson M, Ewald SB, Ferrari AJ, Flaxman AD, Fullman N, Gamkrelidze A, Giles JR, Guo G, Hay SI, He J, Helak M, Hulland EN, Kereselidze M, Krohn KJ, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lindstrom A, Lozano R, Magistro B, Malta DC, Månsson J, Mantilla Herrera AM, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Nomura S, Pasovic M, Pigott DM, Reiner RC, Reinke G, Ribeiro ALP, Santomauro DF, Sholokhov A, Spurlock EE, Walcott R, Walker A, Wiysonge CS, Zheng P, Bettger JP, Murray CJ, Vos T. A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021. medRxiv 2022. [PMID: 35664995 PMCID: PMC9164454 DOI: 10.1101/2022.05.26.22275532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID. Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery Design: We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study. Results: Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8–312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38–7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9–92.4), 60.4% (18.9–89.1), and 35.4% (9.4–75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84–4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10–9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3–21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms. Conclusions and relevance: The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.
Collapse
|
4
|
Santomauro DF, Mantilla Herrera AM, Shadid J, Zheng P, Ashbaugh C, Pigott DM, Abbafati C, Adolph C, Amlag JO, Aravkin AY, Bang-Jensen BL, Bertolacci GJ, Bloom SS, Castellano R, Castro E, Chakrabarti S, Chattopadhyay J, Cogen RM, Collins JK, Dai X, Dangel WJ, Dapper C, Deen A, Erickson M, Ewald SB, Flaxman AD, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Giles JR, Giref AZ, Guo G, He J, Helak M, Hulland EN, Idrisov B, Lindstrom A, Linebarger E, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Magistro B, Malta DC, Månsson JC, Marinho F, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Naik P, Nomura S, O'Halloran JK, Ostroff SM, Pasovic M, Penberthy L, Reiner Jr RC, Reinke G, Ribeiro ALP, Sholokhov A, Sorensen RJD, Varavikova E, Vo AT, Walcott R, Watson S, Wiysonge CS, Zigler B, Hay SI, Vos T, Murray CJL, Whiteford HA, Ferrari AJ. Global prevalence and burden of depressive and anxiety disorders in 204 countries and territories in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet 2021; 398:1700-1712. [PMID: 34634250 PMCID: PMC8500697 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)02143-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1697] [Impact Index Per Article: 565.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2021] [Revised: 09/03/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Before 2020, mental disorders were leading causes of the global health-related burden, with depressive and anxiety disorders being leading contributors to this burden. The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has created an environment where many determinants of poor mental health are exacerbated. The need for up-to-date information on the mental health impacts of COVID-19 in a way that informs health system responses is imperative. In this study, we aimed to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prevalence and burden of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders globally in 2020. METHODS We conducted a systematic review of data reporting the prevalence of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic and published between Jan 1, 2020, and Jan 29, 2021. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, preprint servers, grey literature sources, and consulted experts. Eligible studies reported prevalence of depressive or anxiety disorders that were representative of the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic and had a pre-pandemic baseline. We used the assembled data in a meta-regression to estimate change in the prevalence of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders between pre-pandemic and mid-pandemic (using periods as defined by each study) via COVID-19 impact indicators (human mobility, daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rate, and daily excess mortality rate). We then used this model to estimate the change from pre-pandemic prevalence (estimated using Disease Modelling Meta-Regression version 2.1 [known as DisMod-MR 2.1]) by age, sex, and location. We used final prevalence estimates and disability weights to estimate years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders. FINDINGS We identified 5683 unique data sources, of which 48 met inclusion criteria (46 studies met criteria for major depressive disorder and 27 for anxiety disorders). Two COVID-19 impact indicators, specifically daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and reductions in human mobility, were associated with increased prevalence of major depressive disorder (regression coefficient [B] 0·9 [95% uncertainty interval 0·1 to 1·8; p=0·029] for human mobility, 18·1 [7·9 to 28·3; p=0·0005] for daily SARS-CoV-2 infection) and anxiety disorders (0·9 [0·1 to 1·7; p=0·022] and 13·8 [10·7 to 17·0; p<0·0001]. Females were affected more by the pandemic than males (B 0·1 [0·1 to 0·2; p=0·0001] for major depressive disorder, 0·1 [0·1 to 0·2; p=0·0001] for anxiety disorders) and younger age groups were more affected than older age groups (-0·007 [-0·009 to -0·006; p=0·0001] for major depressive disorder, -0·003 [-0·005 to -0·002; p=0·0001] for anxiety disorders). We estimated that the locations hit hardest by the pandemic in 2020, as measured with decreased human mobility and daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rate, had the greatest increases in prevalence of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders. We estimated an additional 53·2 million (44·8 to 62·9) cases of major depressive disorder globally (an increase of 27·6% [25·1 to 30·3]) due to the COVID-19 pandemic, such that the total prevalence was 3152·9 cases (2722·5 to 3654·5) per 100 000 population. We also estimated an additional 76·2 million (64·3 to 90·6) cases of anxiety disorders globally (an increase of 25·6% [23·2 to 28·0]), such that the total prevalence was 4802·4 cases (4108·2 to 5588·6) per 100 000 population. Altogether, major depressive disorder caused 49·4 million (33·6 to 68·7) DALYs and anxiety disorders caused 44·5 million (30·2 to 62·5) DALYs globally in 2020. INTERPRETATION This pandemic has created an increased urgency to strengthen mental health systems in most countries. Mitigation strategies could incorporate ways to promote mental wellbeing and target determinants of poor mental health and interventions to treat those with a mental disorder. Taking no action to address the burden of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders should not be an option. FUNDING Queensland Health, National Health and Medical Research Council, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
5
|
Vos T, Lim SS, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi M, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abrams EM, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abushouk AI, Acebedo A, Ackerman IN, Adabi M, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adelson JD, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Afshari M, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aghaali M, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmadpour E, Akalu TY, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akombi B, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam S, Alam T, Alanzi TM, Albertson SB, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alema NM, Ali M, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi-Hashiani A, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Aminorroaya A, Amiri F, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Amul GGH, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari I, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Ariani F, Ärnlöv J, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asghari B, Ashbaugh C, Atnafu DD, Atre SR, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Balakrishnan S, Balalla S, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banik PC, Bannick MS, Bante AB, Baraki AG, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barthelemy CM, Barua L, Barzegar A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bazmandegan G, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bello AK, Bender RG, Bennett DA, Bennitt FB, Bensenor IM, Benziger CP, Berhe K, Bernabe E, Bertolacci GJ, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Biehl MH, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bisanzio D, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Bolla SRR, Boloor A, Boon-Dooley AS, Borges G, Borzì AM, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Brauer M, Brayne C, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Briko NI, Britton GB, Bryazka D, Buchbinder R, Bumgarner BR, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Castle CD, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Causey K, Cederroth CR, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang AR, Charlson FJ, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Cho DY, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chung MT, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Collins EL, Compton K, Conti S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Cousin E, Cowden RG, Cowie BC, Cromwell EA, Cross DH, Crowe CS, Cruz JA, Cunningham M, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De Leo D, Dean FE, DeCleene NK, Deen A, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Demeke FM, Demsie DG, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dereje ND, Dervenis N, Desai R, Desalew A, Dessie GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Dibaji Forooshani ZS, Dingels ZV, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Do HT, Dokova K, Dorostkar F, Doshi CP, Doshmangir L, Douiri A, Doxey MC, Driscoll TR, Dunachie SJ, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Edvardsson D, Ehrlich JR, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, Elhabashy HR, El-Jaafary SI, Elyazar IRF, Emamian MH, Emmons-Bell S, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilnejad S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Etemadi A, Etisso AE, Farahmand M, Faraj A, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Faruque M, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira ML, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Fitzgerald R, Flohr C, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Force LM, Fornari C, Foroutan M, Fox JT, Freitas M, Fu W, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gad MM, Gakidou E, Galles NC, Gallus S, Gamkrelidze A, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gardner WM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebrehiwot AM, Gebremedhin KB, Gebreslassie AAAA, Gershberg Hayoon A, Gething PW, Ghadimi M, Ghadiri K, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Ghiasvand H, Ghith N, Gholamian A, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Gitimoghaddam M, Giussani G, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Gorman TM, Gottlich HC, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grivna M, Grosso G, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guimarães RA, Guled RA, Guo G, Guo Y, Gupta R, Haagsma JA, Haddock B, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hafiz A, Hagins H, Haile LM, Hall BJ, Halvaei I, Hamadeh RR, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamilton EB, Han C, Han H, Hankey GJ, Haro JM, Harvey JD, Hasaballah AI, Hasanzadeh A, Hashemian M, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Havmoeller RJ, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari B, Heidari G, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hendrie D, Henrikson HJ, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hird TR, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hu G, Huda TM, Hugo FN, Huynh CK, Hwang BF, Iannucci VC, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Ippolito H, Irvani SSN, Islam MM, Islam M, Islam SMS, Islami F, Iso H, Ivers RQ, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafari H, Jafarinia M, Jahagirdar D, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Jalilian F, James SL, Janjani H, Janodia MD, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jia P, John O, John-Akinola YO, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalani H, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamiab Z, Kanchan T, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karim MA, Karimi SE, Kassa GM, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Keddie SH, Keller C, Kereselidze M, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khan M, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khatib MN, Khayamzadeh M, Khodayari MT, Khundkar R, Kianipour N, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Kneib CJ, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumar V, Kumaresh G, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam JO, Lami FH, Landires I, Lang JJ, Lansingh VC, Larson SL, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lau KMM, Lavados PM, Lazarus JV, Ledesma JR, Lee PH, Lee SWH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Lescinsky H, Leung J, Levi M, Lewington S, Li S, Lim LL, Lin C, Lin RT, Linehan C, Linn S, Liu HC, Liu S, Liu Z, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lucas TCD, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma J, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Maddison R, Madotto F, Mahasha PW, Mai HT, Majeed A, Maled V, Maleki S, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi A, Manafi N, Manguerra H, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Mantilla Herrera AM, Maravilla JC, Marks A, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, Masoumi SZ, Massano J, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehndiratta MM, Mehri F, Mehta KM, Meitei WB, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mengesha MB, Mereke A, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Mihretie KM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Misganaw AT, Mithra P, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohamadi E, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Y, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Momen NC, Monasta L, Mondello S, Mooney MD, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morales L, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mueller UO, Munro SB, Muriithi MK, Musa KI, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghshtabrizi B, Nair S, Nandi AK, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Netsere HBN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen J, Nguyen M, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Nigatu D, Nigatu YT, Nikbakhsh R, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nunez-Samudio V, Oţoiu A, Oancea B, Odell CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okunga EW, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwasanu MM, Omar Bali A, Omer MO, Ong KL, Onwujekwe OE, Orji AU, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ostroff SM, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhare AP, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Park EK, Parmar PGK, Pasupula DK, Patel SK, Paternina-Caicedo AJ, Pathak A, Pathak M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pennini A, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pilz TM, Pirsaheb M, Plana-Ripoll O, Plass D, Pokhrel KN, Polibin RV, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Pourmirza Kalhori R, Pourshams A, Poznańska A, Prada SI, Prakash V, Pribadi DRA, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman MA, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajati F, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Razo C, Redford SB, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezai MS, Rezapour A, Rhinehart PA, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Ribeiro DC, Ribeiro D, Rickard J, Roberts NLS, Roberts S, Robinson SR, Roever L, Rolfe S, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Sabour S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeidi S, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salamati P, Salehi Zahabi S, Salem H, Salem MRR, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Salz I, Samad Z, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schiavolin S, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Shackelford KA, Shadid J, Shahabi S, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharara F, Sheena BS, Sheikhtaheri A, Shetty RS, Shibuya K, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shrime MG, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Simpson KE, Singh A, Singh JA, Skiadaresi E, Skou ST, Skryabin VY, Sobngwi E, Sokhan A, Soltani S, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Stark BA, Ştefan SC, Stein C, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Stokes MA, Stovner LJ, Stubbs JL, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sultan I, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Taherkhani A, Tajdini M, Takahashi K, Taveira N, Teagle WL, Teame H, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Teklehaimanot BF, Terrason S, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thomson AM, Tohidinik HR, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MRR, Tran BX, Travillian R, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Tsai AC, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Tyrovolas S, Uddin R, Ullah S, Undurraga EA, Unnikrishnan B, Vacante M, Vakilian A, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vongpradith A, Vukovic A, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Walters MK, Wang J, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward JL, Watson A, Wei J, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weiss J, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiangkham T, Wiens KE, Wijeratne T, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Wojtyniak B, Wolfe CDA, Wool EE, Wu AM, Wulf Hanson S, Wunrow HY, Xu G, Xu R, Yadgir S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaminfirooz M, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yearwood JA, Yeheyis TY, Yeshitila YG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yoosefi Lebni J, Younis MZ, Younker TP, Yousefi Z, Yousefifard M, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf AY, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zaki L, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zangeneh A, Zastrozhin MS, Zewdie KA, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao JT, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Zimsen SRM, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1204-1222. [PMID: 33069326 PMCID: PMC7567026 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30925-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6299] [Impact Index Per Article: 1574.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2019] [Revised: 02/27/2020] [Accepted: 04/14/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. METHODS GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. INTERPRETATION As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
6
|
Murray CJL, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abualhasan A, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adekanmbi V, Adeoye AM, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Advani SM, Agarwal G, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Akalu TY, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akombi B, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam S, Alam T, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alemu BW, Alhabib KF, Ali M, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alinia C, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Altirkawi KA, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri F, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonazzo IC, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ariani F, Armoon B, Ärnlöv J, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Ashbaugh C, Assmus M, Atafar Z, Atnafu DD, Atout MMW, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bahrami MA, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Bakkannavar SM, Baldasseroni A, Ball K, Ballew SH, Balzi D, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Bante AB, Baraki AG, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Barthelemy CM, Barua L, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Becker JS, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bennitt FB, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bitew H, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Boon-Dooley AS, Borges G, Borzì AM, Borzouei S, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Braithwaite D, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briant PS, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Bryazka D, Bumgarner BR, Burkart K, Burnett RT, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahill LE, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Causey K, Cederroth CR, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang KL, Charlson FJ, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Cherbuin N, Chimed-Ochir O, Cho DY, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chung MT, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Classen TKD, Cohen AJ, Compton K, Cooper OR, Costa VM, Cousin E, Cowden RG, Cross DH, Cruz JA, Dahlawi SMA, Damasceno AAM, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dangel WJ, Danielsson AK, Dargan PI, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davitoiu DV, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, DeLang M, Dellavalle RP, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Demsie DG, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dibaji Forooshani ZS, Djalalinia S, Do HT, Dokova K, Dorostkar F, Doshmangir L, Driscoll TR, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Edvardsson D, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, El-Jaafary SI, Elyazar IRF, Emmons-Bell S, Erskine HE, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilnejad S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Etemadi A, Etisso AE, Fanzo J, Farahmand M, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Farioli A, Faro A, Faruque M, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara G, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira ML, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Force LM, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Freitas M, Fu W, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gad MM, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gardner WM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebreslassie AAAA, Geremew A, Gershberg Hayoon A, Gething PW, Ghadimi M, Ghadiri K, Ghaffarifar F, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Ghiasvand H, Ghith N, Gholamian A, Ghosh R, Gill PS, Ginindza TGG, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goharinezhad S, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Greaves F, Grivna M, Grosso G, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guimarães RA, Guled RA, Guo G, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta T, Haddock B, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hafiz A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Halvaei I, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammer MS, Hankey GJ, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanpoor E, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henrikson HJ, Herbert ME, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hird TR, Hoek HW, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hu G, Hu K, Huda TM, Humayun A, Huynh CK, Hwang BF, Iannucci VC, Ibitoye SE, Ikeda N, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Ippolito H, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Ivers RQ, Iwu CCD, Iwu CJ, Iyamu IO, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jafari H, Jafarinia M, Jahani MA, Jakovljevic M, Jalilian F, James SL, Janjani H, Javaheri T, Javidnia J, Jeemon P, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johansson L, John O, John-Akinola YO, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalani H, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karim MA, Kassa GM, Katikireddi SV, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Kemmer L, Kendrick PJ, Khalid N, Khammarnia M, Khan EA, Khan M, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khatib MN, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei S, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimäki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kopec JA, Korshunov VA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kraemer MUG, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar V, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lami FH, Landires I, Lang JJ, Langan SM, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Lee SWH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Lescinsky H, Leung J, Levi M, Li S, Lim LL, Linn S, Liu S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo J, Lopez AD, Lopez JCF, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lu A, Lugo A, Maddison ER, Mahasha PW, Mahdavi MM, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Maleki A, Maleki S, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manguerra H, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Mantilla Herrera AM, Maravilla JC, Marks A, Martin RV, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Masoumi SZ, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Maulik PK, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehndiratta MM, Mehri F, Mehta KM, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mereke A, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mini GK, Miri M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei R, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Misganaw AT, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Y, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed AS, Mohammed H, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mooney MD, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Musa KI, Muthupandian S, Nabhan AF, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naimzada MD, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Naserbakht M, Nayak VC, Negoi I, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen M, Nigatu YT, Nikbakhsh R, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nunez-Samudio V, Oţoiu A, Oancea B, Odell CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okunga EW, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Ong KL, Onwujekwe OE, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Ostroff SM, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Parry CDH, Pasovic M, Pasupula DK, Patel SK, Pathak M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pennini A, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Piccinelli C, Pilz TM, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Plass D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Poznańska A, Prada SI, Prakash V, Pribadi DRA, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Raggi A, Rahman MA, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajati F, Rakovac I, Ram P, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rao SJ, Rashedi V, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Rawat R, Razo C, Redford SB, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Rhinehart PA, Riahi SM, Ribeiro DC, Ribeiro D, Rickard J, Rivera JA, Roberts NLS, Rodríguez-Ramírez S, Roever L, Ronfani L, Room R, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeedi R, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sajadi SM, Salam N, Salamati P, Salem H, Salem MRR, Salimzadeh H, Salman OM, Salomon JA, Samad Z, Samadi Kafil H, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena S, Schaeffer LE, Schiavolin S, Schlaich MP, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Serre ML, Shadid J, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhtaheri A, Shibuya K, Shield KD, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sierpinski R, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Simpson KE, Singh JA, Singh P, Skiadaresi E, Skou ST, Skryabin VY, Smith EUR, Soheili A, Soltani S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Spencer CN, Spotin A, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Stubbs JL, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Sultan I, Szumowski Ł, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tabuchi T, Taherkhani A, Tajdini M, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tamiru AT, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesema GA, Tessema ZT, Thurston GD, Titova MV, Tohidinik HR, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MRR, Tran BX, Travillian R, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Tyrovolas S, Uddin R, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Valdez PR, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang Y, Wang YP, Watson A, Wei J, Wei MYW, Weintraub RG, Weiss J, Werdecker A, West JJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiens KE, Wolfe CDA, Wozniak SS, Wu AM, Wu J, Wulf Hanson S, Xu G, Xu R, Yadgir S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaminfirooz M, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeheyis TY, Yilgwan CS, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Younker TP, Yousefi B, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf AY, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao JT, Zhao XJG, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Zimsen SRM, Brauer M, Afshin A, Lim SS. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1223-1249. [PMID: 33069327 PMCID: PMC7566194 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30752-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3234] [Impact Index Per Article: 808.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2019] [Revised: 03/21/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. METHODS GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|