Access to care in Afghanistan after august 2021: a cross-sectional study exploring Afghans' perspectives in 10 provinces

BACKGROUND

The Taliban takeover in August 2021 ended a decades-long conflict in Afghanistan. Yet, along with improved security, there have been collateral changes, such as the exacerbation of the economic crisis and brain drain. Although these changes have altered the lives of Afghans in many ways, it is unclear whether they have affected access to care. This study aimed to analyse Afghans' access to care and how this access has changed after August 2021.

METHODS

The study relied on the collaboration with the non-governmental organisation EMERGENCY, running a network of three hospitals and 41 First Aid Posts in 10 Afghan provinces. A 67-item questionnaire about access to care changes after August 2021 was developed and disseminated at EMERGENCY facilities. Ordinal logistic regression was used to evaluate whether access to care changes were associated with participants' characteristics.

RESULTS

In total, 1807 valid responses were returned. Most respondents (54.34%) reported improved security when visiting healthcare facilities, while the ability to reach facilities has remained stable for the majority of them (50.28%). Care is less affordable for the majority of respondents (45.82%). Female respondents, those who are unmarried and not engaged, and patients in the Panjshir province were less likely to perceive improvements in access to care.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings outline which dimensions of access to care need resource allocation. The inability to pay for care is the most relevant barrier to access care after August 2021 and must therefore be prioritised. Women and people from the Panjshir province may require ad hoc interventions to improve their access to care.

Assessing primary healthcare disaster preparedness: a study in Northern Italy

AIM

The aim of this paper is to outline the steps taken to develop an operational checklist to assess primary healthcare (PHC) all-hazards disaster preparedness. It then describes a study testing the applicability of the checklist.

BACKGROUND

A PHC approach is an essential foundation for health emergency and disaster risk management (H-EDRM) because it can prevent and mitigate risks prior to disasters and support an effective response and recovery, thereby contributing to communities' and countries' resilience across the continuum of the disaster cycle. This approach is in line with the H-EDRM framework, published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019, which emphasizes a whole-of-health system approach in disaster management and highlights the importance of integrating PHC into countries' H-EDRM. Nevertheless, literature focusing on how to practically integrate PHC into disaster management, both at the facility and at the policy level, is in its infancy. As of yet, there is no standardized, validated way to assess the specific characteristics that render PHC prepared for disasters nor a method to evaluate its role in H-EDRM.

METHODS

The checklist was developed through an iterative process that leveraged academic literature and expert consultations at different stages of the elaboration process. It was then used to assess primary care facilities in a province in Italy.

FINDINGS

The checklist offers a practical instrument for assessing and enhancing PHC disaster preparedness and for improving planning, coordination, and funding allocation. The study identified three critical areas for improvement in the province's PHC disaster preparedness. First, primary care teams should be more interdisciplinary. Second, primary care services should be more thoroughly integrated into the broader health system. Third, there is a notable lack of awareness of H-EDRM principles among PHC professionals. In the future, the checklist can be elaborated into a weighted tool to be more broadly applicable.

Exploring differences in the utilization of the emergency department between migrant and non-migrant populations: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Migrants face several barriers when accessing care and tend to rely on emergency services to a greater extent than primary care. Comparing emergency department (ED) utilization by migrants and non-migrants can unveil inequalities affecting the migrant population and pave the way for public health strategies aimed at improving health outcomes. This systematic review aims to investigate differences in ED utilization between migrant and non-migrant populations to ultimately advance research on migrants' access to care and inform health policies addressing health inequalities.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in March 2023 on the Pubmed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. The included studies were limited to those relying on data collected from 2012 and written in English or Italian. Data extracted included information on the migrant population and the ED visit, the differences in ED utilization between migrants and non-migrants, and the challenges faced by migrants prior to, during, and after the ED visit. The findings of this systematic review are reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines.

RESULTS

After full-text review, 23 articles met the inclusion criteria. All but one adopted a quantitative methodology. Some studies reported a higher frequency of ED visits among migrants, while others a higher frequency among non-migrants. Migrants tend to leave the hospital against medical advice more frequently than the native population and present at the ED without consulting a general practitioner (GP). They are also less likely to access the ED via ambulance. Admissions for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions, namely health conditions for which adequate, timely, and effective outpatient care can prevent hospitalization, were higher for migrants, while still being significant for the non-migrant population.

CONCLUSIONS

The comparison between migrants' and non-migrants' utilization of the ED did not suggest a clear pattern. There is no consensus on whether migrants access EDs more or less than non-migrants and on whether migrants are hospitalized at a higher or lower extent. However, migrants tend to access EDs for less urgent conditions, lack a referral from a GP and access the ED as walk-ins more frequently. Migrants are also discharged against medical advice more often compared to non-migrants. Findings of this systematic review suggest that migrants' access to care is hindered by language barriers, poor insurance coverage, lack of entitlement to a GP, and lack of knowledge of the local healthcare system.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Psychoactive substance consumption after the Fundão dam mine tailing disaster in Minas Gerais State, Brazil

Disasters cause changes in morbidity, mortality, and medicine use. Brazil is one of the main producers of mineral ores at great environmental cost. Mine tailings are stored in dams and ruptures have led to major disasters. We investigated the consumption of psychoactive medicines in the municipalities affected by the Fundão dam disaster in Minas Gerais State. An ecological study was carried out on drug consumption, estimated using public purchases in Minas Gerais and dispensing data from private retail pharmacies. Consumption (in number of defined daily doses/100,000 inhabitants per day) was analyzed descriptively in eight municipalities, stratified according to consumption level during a 25-month period. Six comparisons of mean consumption values for both data sets were done for pre- and post-disaster periods. The means of medicine consumption before and after the event were plotted and linear trends were added. Public purchase data evinced high consumption levels. Only pharmaceutical retail showed significant differences between the strata in the pre-disaster versus two post-disaster periods. Smaller municipalities showed an increase in consumption 15 months after the disaster. Clonazepam led the way in pharmaceutical retail consumption, followed by fluoxetine. Medicines showed an upward trend after the disaster. The high public provision may have stifled significant consumption patterns of psychoactive drugs; however, peak consumption were observed in private retail, suggesting a modification in use patterns after the disaster. The decrease in consumption immediately after the event was probably related to lower care-seeking behavior on the part of the population, and significant peaks after the disaster may reflect economic consequences of it.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Use of the Health Belief Model in the Context of Heatwaves Research: A Rapid Review

As heatwaves increase and intensify worldwide, so has the research aimed at outlining strategies to protect individuals from their impact. Interventions that promote adaptive measures to heatwaves are encouraged, but evidence on how to develop such interventions is still scarce. Although the Health Belief Model is one of the leading frameworks guiding behavioral change interventions, the evidence of its use in heatwave research is limited. This rapid review aims to identify and describe the main themes and key findings in the literature regarding the use of the Health Belief Model in heatwaves research. It also highlights important research gaps and future research priorities. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, 10 articles were included, with a geographic distribution as follows: United States (n = 1), Australia (n = 1), Pakistan (n = 1), and China (n = 1), as well as Malaysia (n = 2), Germany (n = 1), and Austria (n = 1). Results showed a lack of research using the Health Belief Model to study heatwaves induced by climate change. Half of the studies assessed heatwave risk perception, with the 2 most frequently used constructs being Perceived Susceptibility and Perceived Severity. The Self-efficacy construct was instead used less often. Most of the research was conducted in urban communities. This review underscores the need for further research using the Health Belief Model.

Impact of Ebola and COVID-19 on maternal, neonatal, and child health care among populations affected by conflicts: a scoping review exploring demand and supply-side barriers and solutions

INTRODUCTION

Armed conflicts have a severe impact on the health of women and children. Global health emergencies such as pandemics and disease outbreaks further exacerbate the challenges faced by vulnerable populations in accessing maternal, neonatal, and child healthcare (MNCH). There is a lack of evidence that summarizes the challenges faced by conflict-affected pregnant women, mothers, and children in accessing MNCH services during global health emergencies, mainly the Ebola and COVID-19 pandemics. This scoping review aimed to analyze studies evaluating and addressing barriers to accessing comprehensive MNCH services during Ebola and COVID-19 emergencies in populations affected by conflict.

METHODS

The search was conducted on PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases using terms related to Ebola and COVID-19, conflicts, and MNCH. Original studies published between 1990 and 2022 were retrieved. Articles addressing the challenges in accessing MNCH-related services during pandemics in conflict-affected settings were included. Thematic analysis was performed to categorize the findings and identify barriers and solutions.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Challenges were identified in various MNCH domains, including antenatal care, intrapartum care, postnatal care, vaccination, family planning, and the management of childhood illnesses. Ebola-related supply-side challenges mainly concerned accessibility issues, health workforce constraints, and the adoption of stringent protocols. COVID-19 has resulted in barriers related to access to care, challenges pertaining to the health workforce, and new service adoption. On the demand-side, Ebola- and COVID-19-related risks and apprehensions were the leading barriers in accessing MNCH care. Community constraints on utilizing services during Ebola were caused by a lack of trust and awareness. Demand-side challenges of COVID-19 included fear of disease, language barriers, and communication difficulties. Strategies such as partnerships, strengthening of health systems, service innovation, and community-based initiatives have been employed to overcome these barriers.

CONCLUSION

Global health emergencies amplify the barriers to accessing MNCH services faced by conflict-affected populations. Cultural, linguistic, and supply-side factors are key challenges affecting various MNCH domains. Community-sensitive initiatives enhancing primary health care (PHC), mobile clinics, or outreach programs, and the integration of MNCH into PHC delivery should be implemented. Efforts should prioritize the well-being and empowerment of vulnerable populations. Addressing these barriers is crucial for achieving universal health coverage and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Causes of maternal deaths in Sierra Leone from 2016 to 2019: analysis of districts' maternal death surveillance and response data

INTRODUCTION

Sierra Leone is among the top countries with the highest maternal mortality rates. Although progress has been made in reducing maternal mortality, challenges remain, including limited access to skilled care and regional disparities in accessing quality care. This paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of the burden of different causes of maternal deaths reported in the Maternal Death Surveillance and Response (MDSR) system at the district level from 2016 to 2019.

METHODS

The MDSR data are accessed from the Ministry of Health and Sanitation, and the secondary data analysis was done to determine the causes of maternal death in Sierra Leone. The proportions of each leading cause of maternal deaths were estimated by districts. A subgroup analysis of the selected causes of death was also performed.

RESULTS

Overall, obstetric haemorrhage was the leading cause of maternal death (39.4%), followed by hypertensive disorders (15.8%) and pregnancy-related infections (10.1%). Within obstetric haemorrhage, postpartum haemorrhage was the leading cause in each district. The burden of death due to obstetric haemorrhage slightly increased over the study period, while hypertensive disorders showed a slightly decreasing trend. Disparities were found among districts for all causes of maternal death, but no clear geographical pattern emerged. Non-obstetric complications were reported in 11.5% of cases.

CONCLUSION

The MDSR database provides an opportunity for shared learning and can be used to improve the quality of maternal health services. To improve the accuracy and availability of data, under-reporting must be addressed, and frontline community staff must be trained to accurately capture and report death events.

Factors causing emergency medical care overload during heatwaves: A Delphi study

Heatwaves pose an important risk for population health and are associated with an increased demand for emergency care. To find factors causing such overload, an online Delphi study included 15 experts in emergency medicine, disaster medicine, or public health. One open-ended question was delivered in the first round. After content analysis, the obtained statements were sent to the experts in two rounds to be rated on a 7-point linear scale. Consensus was defined as a standard deviation ≤ 1.0. Thirty-one statements were obtained after content analysis. The experts agreed on 18 statements, mostly focusing on the input section of patient processing and identifying stakeholders, the population, and primary care as targets of potential interventions. Additional dedicated resources and bed capacity were deemed important as per throughput and output sections, respectively. These findings could be used in the future to implement and test solutions to increase emergency healthcare resilience during heatwaves and reduce disaster risk due to climatic change.

Health System Response to the 2023 Floods in Emilia-Romagna, Italy: A Field Report

In May 2023, the Italian region Emilia-Romagna was hit by intense rainfall, which caused extensive floods in densely populated areas. On May 4, 2023, a 12-month state of emergency was declared in the region with the activation of response and recovery plans. This field report provides an overview of the health response to the floods, paying particular attention to the measures put in place to ensure care for displaced populations and raising interesting points of discussion regarding the role of the health system during extreme weather events (EWEs). The considerations that emerge from this report underline the need for a primary care approach to disasters, especially when these occur in areas with a high prevalence of elderly resident population, and underscore the importance of integration of different levels of care.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Venetoclax with Hypomethylating Agents in Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Survival Data from Real-World Studies

In recent years, the association of venetoclax (VEN) with hypomethylating agents (HMAs) significantly improved the outcome of patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who were unfit for intensive chemotherapy and became the standard of care after the publication of the pivotal RCT VIALE-A. However, it is still not clear to what extent the results observed in the VIALE-A apply to a real-world setting. For this reason, we carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of real-world studies on newly diagnosed patients with AML, ineligible for intensive induction chemotherapy, receiving first-line VEN+HMA. We then compared their results in term of survival with those from the VIALE-A. Kaplan-Meier curves were extracted from all included studies and individual survival data was reconstructed. We then estimated a pooled survival curve and compared it with the results of the VIALE-A using the log-rank test. We also conducted a secondary analysis including only studies considering VEN plus azacytidine (AZA) as treatment, as this was the schedule originally used in the VIALE-A. Nineteen real-world studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the systematic review. Most of them reported a worse survival than the VIALE-A. The pooled survival curve was similar to that reported in the VIALE-A during the first three months of treatment but diverged thereafter (p-value = 0.0001). The pooled median survival among the real-world studies was 9.37 months (95%CI 8.81-10.5), substantially lower than that reported in the VIALE-A (14.7 months; 95%CI 11.9-18.7). Results slightly increased when the analysis was restricted to the studies using VEN+AZA as treatment (median survival: 11.5 months; 95%CI 10.2-14.8). Survival of newly diagnosed AML patients treated with VEN+HMAs in a real-world setting seems to be lower than previously reported in the VIALE-A, while the effect of VEN+AZA is more in line with expected results. Future studies are needed to evaluate whether this apparent discrepancy is due to the different characteristics of enrolled patients or to a non-optimal adherence to therapy, and whether alternative regimens can provide better results in terms of safety and effectiveness.

Prehospital Emergency Care in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

An under-developed and fragmented prehospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system is a major obstacle to the timely care of emergency patients. Insufficient emphasis on prehospital emergency systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) currently causes a substantial number of avoidable deaths from time-sensitive illnesses, highlighting a critical need for improved prehospital emergency care systems. Therefore, this systematic review aimed to assess the prehospital emergency care services across LMICs.

METHODS

This systematic review used four electronic databases, namely: PubMed/MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, and SCOPUS, to search for published reports on prehospital emergency medical care in LMICs. Only peer-reviewed studies published in English language from January 1, 2010 through November 1, 2022 were included in the review. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) and Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist were used to assess the methodological quality of the included studies. Further, the protocol of this systematic review has been registered on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) database (Ref: CRD42022371936) and has been conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

RESULTS

Of the 4,909 identified studies, a total of 87 studies met the inclusion criteria and were therefore included in the review. Prehospital emergency care structure, transport care, prehospital times, health outcomes, quality of information exchange, and patient satisfaction were the most reported outcomes in the considered studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The prehospital care system in LMICs is fragmented and uncoordinated, lacking trained medical personnel and first responders, inadequate basic materials, and substandard infrastructure.

Rate advancement measurement for lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma in asbestos-exposed workers

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to asbestos increases the risk of lung cancer and mesothelioma. Few studies quantified the premature occurrence of these diseases in asbestos-exposed workers. Focus on premature disease onset (rate advancement or acceleration) can be useful in risk communication and for the evaluation of exposure impact. We estimated rate advancement for total mortality, lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma deaths, by classes of cumulative asbestos exposure in a pooled cohort of asbestos cement (AC) workers in Italy.

METHOD

The cohort study included 12 578 workers from 21 cohorts, with 6626 deaths in total, 858 deaths from lung cancer and 394 from pleural malignant neoplasm (MN). Rate advancement was estimated by fitting a competitive mortality Weibull model to the hazard of death over time since first exposure (TSFE).

RESULT

Acceleration time (AT) was estimated at different TSFE values. The highest level of cumulative exposure compared with the lowest, for pleural MN AT was 16.9 (95% CI 14.9 to 19.2) and 33.8 (95% CI 29.8 to 38.4) years at TSFE of 20 and 40 years, respectively. For lung cancer, it was 13.3 (95% CI 12.0 to 14.7) and 26.6 (95% CI 23.9 to 29.4) years, respectively. As for total mortality, AT was 3.35 (95% CI 2.98 to 3.71) years at 20 years TSFE, and 6.70 (95% CI 5.95 to 7.41) at 40 years TSFE.

CONCLUSION

The current study observed marked rate advancement after asbestos exposure for lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma, as well as for total mortality.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990-2019: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM_2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM_2.5- and ozone-related disease. Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM_2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM_2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990-2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010-2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones. Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM_2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts.

[Interactions between drugs, environment and health: a new challenge for epidemiology.]

Traditionally, the effects of drugs and of environmental factors on health have been studied independently. Recently, several research groups have started to broaden the view and consider potential overlaps and interactions between environmental exposures and drug use. In Italy, regardless the strong competencies in environmental and pharmaco-epidemiology and the availability of detailed data, to date research in the fields of pharmacoepidemiology and environmental epidemiology is mainly being conducted in silos, but time has come to dedicate attention to possible convergence and integration between the two disciplines. The present contribution aims at introducing the topic and highlighting potential for opportunities in research by illustrating some examples.

Efficacy and Safety of Quadrivalent Conjugate Meningococcal Vaccines: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Over the last decades, different quadrivalent antimeningococcal vaccine formulations (diphteria toxoid conjugate, MenACWY-D; tetanus toxoid conjugate, MenACWY-TT; CRM₁₉₇ protein conjugate, MenACWY-CRM) have been developed. However, their availability varies, both in terms of authorized formulations and of inclusion in vaccination schedules. Furthermore, several countries include only the monovalent meningococcal C (MenC) vaccine in their immunization programmes. Finally, there is currently no updated systematic review that directly compares the MenACWY formulations. Thus, we summarized the evidence on efficacy and safety through four parallel, independent systematic literature reviews with meta-analysis which included randomized controlled trials comparing the abovementioned vaccines. A total of 16 studies have been included. In terms of efficacy, MenACWY-TT outperformed MenACWY-D and MenACWY-CRM for A, W-135, and Y serogroups, while no significant difference was found for serogroup C. Furthermore, we did not find significant differences in efficacy between MenC and MenACWY-TT. Regarding the safety, we were able to perform a quantitative analysis only between MenACWY-TT and MenC, finding no significant differences. Similarly, among the different MenACWY formulations no relevant differences were identified. These findings suggest that MenACWY-TT could be preferable to other formulations to improve current vaccination programs and to better develop future immunization policies.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between institutional affiliations of academic editors and authors in medical journals

Background

Most of the literature on conflict of interest (COI) has not focused on the role of academic editors and their possible COIs, although academic editors often hold senior faculty positions at universities, which might be considered a COI if this influences towards a more favourable processing to articles submitted by institutional colleagues. The current study aims to assess whether academic editor affiliation, a potential COI, can influence academic institution ranking as top contributor in the biomedical field.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis extracting publicly available data from the 2019 Clarivate InCites Journal Citation Reports for journals in the “Medicine, General & Internal” category and from each journal website. We constructed the following study outcomes: i) being a top 5 academic contributor for the peer-review journal of interest (yes/no), ii) being a top 10 academic contributor for the peer-review journal of interest (yes/no), and iii) ranking position as top 50 academic contributor for the peer-review journal of interest. Mixed-effect linear and logistic regression models were employed, as appropriate.

Results

We included 114 journals in our analysis, 49% were open-access only. Sharing same affiliation of any of the editorial board members was associated with a 6.7 and 5.6 greater likelihood of being top 5 and top 10 contributors, respectively (95%CI 5.07-8.73 and 4.34-7.22). Similarly, sharing same affiliation was associated with being 12.1 places higher as top contributor (95%CI 10.35-13.81). When considering the editor in chief affiliation solely, association was even stronger.

Conclusions

We found that academic editors sharing the same institutional affiliation with authors was strongly associated with the likelihood of that institution of being a top contributor. Shared institutional affiliations between editors and authors should be clearly stated as part of an open and transparent peer-review process.

Key messages

• Editors sharing same affiliation with authors was strongly associated with the likelihood for the institution the editor was affiliated with of being top contributor for academic medical journals.

• Shared institutional affiliations between editors and authors should be clearly stated as part of an open and transparent peer-review process.

Development and testing of diagnostic algorithms to identify patients with acromegaly in Southern Italian claims databases

Acromegaly is a rare disease characterized by an excessive production of growth-hormone and insulin-like growth factor 1, typically resulting from a GH-secreting pituitary adenoma. This study was aimed at comparing and measuring accuracy of newly and previously developed coding algorithms for the identification of acromegaly using Italian claims databases. This study was conducted between January 2015 and December 2018, using data from the claims databases of Caserta Local Health Unit (LHU) and Sicily Region in Southern Italy. To detect acromegaly cases from the general target population, four algorithms were developed using combinations of diagnostic, surgical procedure and co-payment exemption codes, pharmacy claims and specialist’s visits. Algorithm accuracy was assessed by measuring the Youden Index, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values. The percentage of positive cases for each algorithm ranged from 7.9 (95% CI 6.4–9.8) to 13.8 (95% CI 11.7–16.2) per 100,000 inhabitants in Caserta LHU and from 7.8 (95% CI 7.1–8.6) to 16.4 (95% CI 15.3–17.5) in Sicily Region. Sensitivity of the different algorithms ranged from 71.1% (95% CI 54.1–84.6%) to 84.2% (95% CI 68.8–94.0%), while specificity was always higher than 99.9%. The algorithm based on the presence of claims suggestive of acromegaly in ≥ 2 different databases (i.e., hospital discharge records, copayment exemptions registry, pharmacy claims and specialist visits registry) achieved the highest Youden Index (84.2) and the highest positive predictive value (34.8; 95% CI 28.6–41.6). We tested four algorithms to identify acromegaly cases using claims databases with high sensitivity and Youden Index. Despite identifying rare diseases using real-world data is challenging, this study showed that robust validity testing may yield the identification of accurate coding algorithms.

A Review of COVID-19 Response Challenges in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has positioned fragile healthcare systems in low-income countries under pressure, leading to critical gaps in service delivery. The pandemic response demands the healthcare system to be resilient and continue provision of healthcare services. This review is aimed at describing the healthcare response challenges during the pandemic in Ethiopia.

METHODOLOGY

Eligible studies dealing with challenges of the healthcare system in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia were included. The six World Health Organization (WHO) healthcare system building blocks were used to categorize healthcare challenges. PubMed ProQuest, databases were searched, and results were summarized using systematic review synthesis.

RESULTS

Financial constraints led to a shortage of mechanical ventilators. Furthermore, the pandemic hindered the capacity to avail full packages of personal protective equipment in health facilities and intensive care capacity. The pandemic also affected the delivery of maternal, child and new-born services, prevention, and treatment of childhood illness, including immunization services.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic posed various challenges to the performance of the healthcare system in Ethiopia. It is recommended that policy makers and stakeholders enhance pandemic preparedness and strengthen response capacity by considering the six WHO healthcare system building blocks.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementation of the South African Triage Scale (SATS) in a New Ambulance System in Beira, Mozambique: A Retrospective Observational Study

In 2019, an urban ambulance system was deployed in the city of Beira, Mozambique to refer patients from peripheral health centres (HCs) to the only hospital of the city (Beira Central Hospital-HCB). Initially, the system worked following a first-in-first-out approach, thus leading to referrals not based on severity condition. With the aim of improving the process, the South African Triage Scale (SATS) has been subsequently introduced in three HCs. In this study, we assessed the impact of SATS implementation on the selection process and the accuracy of triage performed by nurses. We assessed 552 and 1608 referral charts from before and after SATS implementation, respectively, and we retrospectively calculated codes. We compared the expected referred patients' codes from the two phases, and nurse-assigned codes to the expected ones. The proportion of referred orange and red codes significantly increased (+12.2% and +12.9%) while the proportion of green and yellow codes decreased (-18.7% and -5.8%). The overall rates of accuracy, and under- and overtriage were 34.2%, 36.3%, and 29.5%, respectively. The implementation of SATS modified the pattern of referred patients and increased the number of severe cases receiving advanced medical care at HCB. While nurses' accuracy improved with the routine use of the protocol, the observed rates of incorrect triage suggest that further research is needed to identify factors affecting SATS application in this setting.

Time-Trends of Drug-Drug Interactions among Elderly Outpatients in the Piedmont Region (Italy): A Population-Based Study

Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a major health problem in the primary care setting, particularly among the elderly population. While the high frequency of ADRs in the elderly has several causes, a major and common determinant is polypharmacy, which can in turn increase the risk of drug-drug interactions (DDIs). In this paper, we analyzed the drugs prescriptions dispensed to elderly outpatients, to assess changes in the prevalence of selected DDIs in the period 2013−2019. Overall, about 15% of the patients aged >65 years were poly-treated. Among them, a decreasing trend in prevalence was observed for the majority of DDIs during the study period. This trend was particularly noticeable for DDIs involving fluoroquinolones and vitamin K antagonists, where a sharp reduction of over 40% was observed. On the opposite, a small increase in prevalence was observed for the association of antidiabetics and beta-blocking agents and for that of clopidogrel and PPIs. While the occurrence of most of the considered DDIs among poly-treated elderly decreased over time, the prevalence of some of them is still worrying. The complexity of the national drug formularies, as well as the increased number of prescribing actors that are involved, further urges the update of DDI lists to be used to monitor drug appropriateness and reduce avoidable ADRs.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10-24 years in the EU, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU.

METHODS

Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State.

FINDINGS

In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5-88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4-39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10-24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62-4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25-298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56-2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96-2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10-24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04-12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53-8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78-10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63-7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10-24 years substantially decreased (-40·41% [-43·00 to -37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (-40·56% [-43·16 to -37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (r_s=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (r_s=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (r_s=-0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (r_s=-0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (r_s=-0·61, p=0·0005).

INTERPRETATION

NCD-related mortality has substantially declined among adolescents in the EU between 1990 and 2019, but the rising trend of YLL attributed to mental disorders and their YLD burden are concerning. Differences by sex, age group, and across EU Member States highlight the importance of preventive interventions and scaling up adolescent-responsive health-care systems, which should prioritise specific needs by sex, age, and location.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Time to Treatment Intensification in Patients Receiving DPP4 Inhibitors Versus Sulfonylureas as the First Add-On to Metformin Monotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: To verify whether, in patients on metformin (MET) monotherapy for type 2 diabetes (T2D), the add-on of a dipeptidyl peptidase inhibitor (DPP4i) compared to a sulfonylurea (SU) can delay the time to the subsequent treatment intensification (TI).

Methods: Population-based administrative data banks from four Italian geographic areas were used. Patients aged ≥18 years on MET monotherapy receiving first DPP4i or SU dispensing between 2008 and 2015 (cohort entry) were followed up to the occurrence of TI (insulin dispensing or add-on of a third non-insulin hypoglicemic >180 days after cohort entry), treatment discontinuation, switch, cancer, death, TI occurrence within, end of data availability, end of study period (31 December 2016), whichever came first. Patients on MET + DPP4i were matched 1:1 with those on MET + SU by sex, age, year of cohort entry, and data bank. Hazard Ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression model including matching variables and potential confounders measured at baseline. Different sensitivity analyses were performed: i) matching at 180 days after cohort entry, ii) intent to treat (ITT) analysis, iii) matching by duration of MET monotherapy, iv) matching by propensity score.

Results: The matched study cohort included 10,600 patients. Overall, 763 TI were observed (4.5/100 person-years; mean follow-up = 1.6 years). The primary analysis showed no difference in time to TI between the two groups (HR = 1.02; 95% CI = 0.88–1.19). Sensitivity analyses confirmed this result, except from the ITT analysis (HR = 1.27; 1.13–1.43).

Conclusion: The use of a DPP4i rather than a SU as add-on to MET monotherapy was not associated with a delay in treatment intensification.

Risk of Severe Infection among Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients on Biological DMARDs: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) are widely used for the management of rheumatoid arthritis, although their benefits are counterweight by an increased risk of infections. In the present study, we used administrative data to compare the risk of severe infections among different classes of bDMARDs. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Administrative Health Databases of the Piedmont Region, Italy. Relevant data were obtained from: (1) the inhabitants registry, (2) hospital discharge records, and (3) the co-payment exemption registry and (4) drug claims registry. Fine and Gray competing risk models were fitted to evaluate the association between the use of different types of bDMARDs and occurrence of severe infection accounting for treatment interruption as competing risk. A total of 1780 new users of bDMARDs were identified. Among them, 50 hospitalizations for infection occurred during the study period. The use of Tocilizumab was associated with an increased risk of infection, compared to tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor drugs (sub-distribution hazard ratios-sHR: 2.510; 95% CI: 1.279–4.926), whereas no difference in the risk of severe infection was found for abatacept (sHR: 0.584; 95% CI: 0.234–1.457). bDMARDs treatment is generally safe in clinical practice with slight but important differences among classes. The increased risk of infection associated with tocilizumab use should be taken into account when balancing the risk and benefits of starting a treatment with this drug.

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.

RESULTS

In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.

Knowledge Gaps and Research Priorities on the Health Effects of Heatwaves: A Systematic Review of Reviews

Although extreme weather events have played a constant role in human history, heatwaves (HWs) have become more frequent and intense in the past decades, causing concern especially in light of the increasing evidence on climate change. Despite the increasing number of reviews suggesting a relationship between heat and health, these reviews focus primarily on mortality, neglecting other important aspects. This systematic review of reviews gathered the available evidence from research syntheses conducted on HWs and health. Following the PRISMA guidelines, 2232 records were retrieved, and 283 reviews were ultimately included. Information was extracted from the papers and categorized by topics. Quantitative data were extracted from meta-analyses and, when not available, evidence was collected from systematic reviews. Overall, 187 reviews were non-systematic, while 96 were systematic, of which 27 performed a meta-analysis. The majority evaluated mortality, morbidity, or vulnerability, while the other topics were scarcely addressed. The following main knowledge gaps were identified: lack of a universally accepted definition of HW; scarce evidence on the HW-mental health relationship; no meta-analyses assessing the risk perception of HWs; scarcity of studies evaluating the efficacy of adaptation strategies and interventions. Future efforts should meet these priorities to provide high-quality evidence to stakeholders.

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time.

Methods

Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated.

Findings

In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432-912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9-412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs.

Interpretation

Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people.

Funding

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nutrition and Rheumatoid Arthritis Onset: A Prospective Analysis Using the UK Biobank

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease that affects the joints. The multifactorial etiopathogenesis of RA has been heavily investigated, but is still only partially understood. Diet can represent both a risk factor and a protective factor, based on some evidence that suggests specific properties of certain foods and their ability to increase/reduce inflammation. To date, the studies done on this topic provide discordant results and are heterogeneous in terms of design and cohort size. In this work, we investigated for the first time the relationship between nutrition and the risk of RA onset using a sample size of about half a million subjects from one of the largest publicly available biobanks that is the UK biobank. Results showed that oily fish, alcohol, coffee and breakfast cereals have protective roles in RA; whereas, tea can increase the risk of RA. In conclusion, the obtained results confirm that diet plays key roles in RA, either by promoting or by preventing RA onset and development. Future research should focus on unravelling the effects of dietary habits on immune-mediated diseases to establish better preventive strategies.

Potentially Inappropriate Prescribing among Elderly Outpatients: Evaluation of Temporal Trends 2012-2018 in Piedmont, Italy

Pharmacological intervention is one of the cornerstones in the treatment and prevention of disease in modern healthcare. However, a large number of drugs are often prescribed and used inappropriately, especially in elderly patients. We aimed at investigating the annual prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescriptions (PIPs) among older outpatients using administrative healthcare databases of the Piedmont Region (Italy) over a seven-year period (2012–2018). We included all Piedmont outpatients aged 65 years or older with at least one drug prescription per year. Polypharmacy and the prevalence of PIPs according to the ERD list explicit tool were measured on an annual basis. A range between 976,398 (in 2012) and 1,066,389 (in 2018) elderly were evaluated. Among them, the number of subjects with at least one PIP decreased from 418,537 in 2012 to 339,764 in 2018; the prevalence significantly reduced by ~25% over the study period. The stratified analyses by age groups and sex also confirmed the downward trend and identified several differences in the most prevalent inappropriately prescribed drugs. Overall, despite a reduction in PIP prevalence, one out of three older outpatients was still exposed to inappropriateness, highlighting the extensive need for intervention to improve prescribing.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Use of State Sequence Analysis in Pharmacoepidemiology: A Tutorial

While state sequence analysis (SSA) has been long used in social sciences, its use in pharmacoepidemiology is still in its infancy. Indeed, this technique is relatively easy to use, and its intrinsic visual nature may help investigators to untangle the latent information within prescription data, facilitating the individuation of specific patterns and possible inappropriate use of medications. In this paper, we provide an educational primer of the most important learning concepts and methods of SSA, including measurement of dissimilarities between sequences, the application of clustering methods to identify sequence patterns, the use of complexity measures for sequence patterns, the graphical visualization of sequences, and the use of SSA in predictive models. As a worked example, we present an application of SSA to opioid prescription patterns in patients with non-cancer pain, using real-world data from Italy. We show how SSA allows the identification of patterns in prescriptions in these data that might not be evident using standard statistical approaches and how these patterns are associated with future discontinuation of opioid therapy.

Association between antidepressant use in pregnancy and gestational diabetes mellitus: Results from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study

PURPOSE

This study sought to determine the association between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and antidepressant exposure during early-mid pregnancy, overall and according to antidepressant affinity to the histamine-1 (H₁ ) receptor.

METHODS

Data originate from the nation-wide, Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study conducted in 1999-2008, linked to the national Medical Birth Registry. The study included 6647 pregnancies within women with depressive/anxiety disorders during and/or 6 months prior to pregnancy. Pregnancies exposed in early-mid gestation to antidepressants having low (group 1, n = 814) or high (group 2, n = 77) affinity to the H₁ receptor were compared to non-medicated (n = 5756). We fit crude and weighted modified Poisson regression models using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW).

RESULTS

Overall, 84 (1.3%) of the pregnancies developed GDM. Relative to non-medicated pregnancies, the risk of GDM was slightly lower in antidepressant group 1 exposed (1.3% vs 1.1%), but more elevated in those exposed to group 2 antidepressants (3.9%). In the weighted analysis, there was no evidence for an association between antidepressant group 1 exposure in early-mid pregnancy and risk of GDM [relative risk (RR): 0.69, 95% confidence interval: 0.31-1.51].

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational use of antidepressants with low H₁ receptor affinity, mainly SSRIs and SNRIs, does not pose a substantial risk of GDM in women with depressive/anxiety disorders in pregnancy, compared to no use.

Association between ambulance prehospital time and maternal and perinatal outcomes in Sierra Leone: a countrywide study

INTRODUCTION

Sierra Leone, one of the countries with the highest maternal and perinatal mortality in the world, launched its first National Emergency Medical Service (NEMS) in 2018. We carried out a countrywide assessment to analyse NEMS operational times for obstetric emergencies in respect the access to timely essential surgery within 2 hours. Moreover, we evaluated the relationship between operational times and maternal and perinatal mortality.

METHODS

We collected prehospital data of 6387 obstetric emergencies referrals from primary health units to hospital facilities between June 2019 and May 2020 and we estimated the proportion of referrals with a prehospital time (PT) within 2 hours. The association between PT and mortality was investigated using Poisson regression models for binary data.

RESULTS

At the national level, the proportion of emergency obstetric referrals with a PT within 2 hours was 58.5% (95% CI 56.9% to 60.1%) during the rainy season and 61.4% (95% CI 59.5% to 63.2%) during the dry season. Results were substantially different between districts, with the capital city of Freetown reporting more than 90% of referrals within the benchmark and some rural districts less than 40%. Risk of maternal death at 60, 120 and 180 min of PT was 1.8%, 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Corresponding figures for perinatal mortality were 16%, 18% and 25%.

CONCLUSION

NEMS operational times for obstetric emergencies in Sierra Leone vary greatly and referral transports in rural areas struggle to reach essential surgery within 2 hours. Maternal and perinatal risk of death increased concurrently with operational times, even beyond the 2-hour target, therefore, any reduction of the time to reach the hospital, may translate into improved patient outcomes.

Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts: asbestos related mortality by industrial sector and cumulative exposure

OBJECTIVE

Italy has been a large user of asbestos and asbestos containing materials until the 1992 ban. We present a pooled cohort study on long-term mortality in exposed workers.

METHODS

Pool of 43 Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos cement, rolling stock, shipbuilding, glasswork, harbors, insulation and other industries). SMRs were computed by industrial sector for the 1970-2010 period, for the major causes, using reference rates by age, sex, region and calendar period.

RESULTS

The study included 51 801 subjects (5741 women): 55.9% alive, 42.6% died (cause known for 95%) and 1.5% lost to follow-up. Asbestos exposure was estimated at the plant and period levels. Asbestos related mortality was significantly increased. All industrial sectors showed increased mortality from pleural malignancies, and most also from peritoneal and lung cancer and asbestosis, with exposure related trend. Increased mortality was also observed for ovarian cancer and for bladder cancer.

DISCUSSION

The study confirmed the increased risk for cancer of the lung, ovary, pleura and peritoneum but not of the larynx and the digestive tract. A large increase in mortality from asbestosis was observed.

Effect of Asbestos Consumption on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy: Forecasts of Mortality up to 2040

Statistical models used to forecast malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) trends often do not take into account historical asbestos consumption, possibly resulting in less accurate predictions of the future MPM death toll. We used the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach to predict future MPM cases in Italy until 2040, based on past asbestos consumption figures. Analyses were conducted using data on male MPM deaths (1970-2014) and annual asbestos consumption using data on domestic production, importation, and exportation. According to our model, the peak of MPM deaths is expected to occur in 2021 (1122 expected cases), with a subsequent decrease in mortality (344 MPM deaths in 2039). The exposure-response curve shows that relative risk (RR) of MPM increased almost linearly for lower levels of exposure but flattened at higher levels. The lag-specific RR grew until 30 years since exposure and decreased thereafter, suggesting that the most relevant contributions to the risk come from exposures which occurred 20-40 years before death. Our results show that the Italian MPM epidemic is approaching its peak and underline that the association between temporal trends of MPM and time since exposure to asbestos is not monotonic, suggesting a lesser role of remote exposures in the development of MPM than previously assumed.