Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Liaison psychiatry before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on hospital admissions. The clinical profiles of patients referred to liaison psychiatry teams (LPT) remained stable over the last few decades. We postulate changes in patient profiles due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

a total of 384 patients admitted to a tertiary care University Hospital in Madrid (Spain) and referred to LPTs were recruited. Patients referred 5 months before and after the first admission for COVID-19 were included. Clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were collected, and non-parametric hypothesis contrast tests were used to study possible differences between both periods.

RESULTS

patients referred during the pandemic were significantly older (U = 2.006; p = .045), most of them were admitted to medical hospitalization units (χ2 (2) = 5.962; p = 015), and with a different reason for admission. There was an increase in the rate of adjustment disorders (χ2 (1) =7.893; p = 005) and delirium (χ2 (1) =9.413; p = 002), as well as psychiatric comorbidity (χ2 (2) = 9.930; p = .007), and a reduction in the proportion of patients treated for substance misuse (χ2 (5) = 19.152; p = .002). The number of deaths increased significantly (χ2 (1) = 6.611; p = .010). In persons over 65 years inappropriate prescription was significantly lower (χ2 (1) = 8.200; p = .004).

CONCLUSIONS

the pandemic had an impact on the activity of the LPTs due to the change in the clinical profile and evolution of referred patients, maintaining standards of care that are reflected through prescription.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time.

Methods

Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated.

Findings

In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432-912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9-412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs.

Interpretation

Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people.

Funding

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

The Medium-Term Changes in Health-Related Behaviours among Spanish Older People Lifestyles during Covid-19 Lockdown

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to evaluate general changes and investigate the association between diet quality, physical activity (PA), and sedentary time (ST) during COVID-19 lockdown and the subsequent 7-month changes in health-related behaviours and lifestyles in older people.

PARTICIPANTS

1092 participants (67-97y) from two Spanish cohorts were included.

DESIGN

Telephone-based questionaries were used to evaluate health-related behaviours and lifestyle. Multinomial logistic regression analyses with diet quality, PA, and ST during lockdown as predictors for health-related behaviours changes post-lockdown were applied.

RESULTS

Diet quality, PA, and ST significantly improved post-lockdown, while physical component score of the SF-12 worsened. Participants with a low diet quality during lockdown had higher worsening of post-lockdown ST and anxiety; whereas those with high diet quality showed less likelihood of remaining abstainers, worsening weight, and improving PA. Lower ST was associated with a higher likelihood of remaining abstainers, and worsening weight and improving social contact; nevertheless, higher ST was linked to improvement in sleep quality. Lower PA was more likely to decrease alcohol consumption, while higher PA showed the opposite. However, PA was more likely to be associated to remain abstainers.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite improvements in lifestyle after lockdown, it had health consequences for older people. Particularly, lower ST during lockdown seemed to provide the most medium-term remarkable lifestyle improvements.

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study

BACKGROUND

Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally.

METHODS

Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex.

RESULTS

Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.

Genetic underpinnings of sociability in the general population

Levels of sociability are continuously distributed in the general population, and decreased sociability represents an early manifestation of several brain disorders. Here, we investigated the genetic underpinnings of sociability in the population. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of a sociability score based on four social functioning-related self-report questions from 342,461 adults in the UK Biobank. Subsequently we performed gene-wide and functional follow-up analyses. Robustness analyses were performed in the form of GWAS split-half validation analyses, as well as analyses excluding neuropsychiatric cases. Using genetic correlation analyses as well as polygenic risk score analyses we investigated genetic links of our sociability score to brain disorders and social behavior outcomes. Individuals with autism spectrum disorders, bipolar disorder, depression, and schizophrenia had a lower sociability score. The score was significantly heritable (SNP h2 of 6%). We identified 18 independent loci and 56 gene-wide significant genes, including genes like ARNTL, DRD2, and ELAVL2. Many associated variants are thought to have deleterious effects on gene products and our results were robust. The sociability score showed negative genetic correlations with autism spectrum, disorders, depression, schizophrenia, and two sociability-related traits-loneliness and social anxiety-but not with bipolar disorder or Alzheimer's disease. Polygenic risk scores of our sociability GWAS were associated with social behavior outcomes within individuals with bipolar disorder and with major depressive disorder. Variation in population sociability scores has a genetic component, which is relevant to several psychiatric disorders. Our findings provide clues towards biological pathways underlying sociability.

Cross-cultural comparison of symptom networks in late-life major depressive disorder: Yoruba Africans and the Spanish Population

BACKGROUND

The concept of European psychologisation of depression versus somatisation in non-European populations has been the basis of several studies of cultural psychopathology in the general population. Little is currently known about cross-cultural differences and similarities in late-life depression symptom reporting. We cross-culturally compared symptom reporting in the context of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) among community-dwelling older adults from Spain and Nigeria.

METHODS

We relied on data from two household multistage probability samples comprising 3,715 persons aged 65 years or older in the Spanish and Nigerian populations. All participants underwent assessments for MDD using the World Mental Health Survey version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Cross-cultural comparison of broad somatic and psychological categories as well as relationship and influence of individual symptoms were analysed using the Symptom Network Analysis approach.

RESULTS

Current MDD was diagnosed in 232 and 195 older persons from Spain and Nigeria, respectively. The symptom network of the two samples were invariant in terms of global strength, S(G_SPAIN , G_NIGERIA ) = 7.56, P = .06, with psychological and somatic symptoms demonstrating centrality in both countries. However, country-specific relationships and influence of individual symptoms were found in the network structure of both samples, M(G_SPAIN , G_NIGERIA ) = 2.95, P < .01.

CONCLUSION

Broad somatic and psychological symptoms categories contributed to the structural network of older Africans and their peers from the Spanish population. Variations in the relationship and influence of individual symptoms suggests that the functional and "communicative" role of individual symptoms may be differentiated by context specific imperatives. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:-, 2020.

Pain rates in general population for the period 1991-2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis

Background

Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991–2015 and to project 10-year pain rates.

Methods

We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990–2015 and we applied Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content “self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview”, with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality.

Results

Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10–20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10–15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36–50.

Conclusions

Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates.

Predictors of pain in general ageing populations: results from a multi-country analysis based on ATHLOS harmonized database

BACKGROUND

Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people, and with increasing trends in general populations. Different risk factors for pain have been identified, but generally from studies with limited samples and a limited number of candidate predictors. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictors of pain from a large set of variables and respondents.

METHODS

We used part of the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, selecting studies and waves with a longitudinal course, and in which pain was absent at baseline and with no missing at follow-up. Predictors were selected based on missing distribution and univariable association with pain, and were selected from the following domains: Socio-demographic and economic characteristics, Lifestyle and health behaviours, Health status and functional limitations, Diseases, Physical measures, Cognition, personality and other psychological measures, and Social environment. Hierarchical logistic regression models were then applied to identify significant predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 13,545 subjects were included of whom 5348 (39.5%) developed pain between baseline and the average 5.2 years' follow-up. Baseline risk factors for pain were female gender (OR 1.34), engaging in vigorous exercise (OR 2.51), being obese (OR 1.36) and suffering from the loss of a close person (OR 1.88) whereas follow-up risk factors were low energy levels/fatigue (1.93), difficulties with walking (1.69), self-rated health referred as poor (OR 2.20) or average to moderate (OR 1.57) and presence of sleep problems (1.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that 39.5% of respondents developed pain over a five-year follow-up period, that there are proximal and distal risk factors for pain, and that part of them are directly modifiable. Actions aimed at improving sleep, reducing weight among obese people and treating fatigue would positively impact on pain onset, and avoiding vigorous exercise should be advised to people aged 60 or over, in particular if female or obese.

Stability of clinically relevant depression symptoms in old-age across 11 cohorts: a multi-state study

AIMS

To study the temporal dynamics of depression symptom episodes in old-age and the related influence of risk factors.

METHODS

Data from 41 362 old adults (54.61% women; mean age = 75.30, SD = 6.20) from the Ageing Trajectories of Health - Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project were used. Depressive symptoms were followed over an 18-year period. A multi-state model, comprising three statuses (no depression, new clinically relevant episode of symptoms and episode persistence), was fitted. Multinomial regression was used to study the role of risk factors in status transition.

RESULTS

Almost 85% of participants showed no depression, but prevalence became lower over time (B = -0.25, P < 0.001). New episode point prevalence was over 5.30% with a significant probability of moving to persistence status (transition probability = 0.27). Episode persistence became evident in 9.86% of episode status transitions, with increasing rate over time (B = 0.54, P < 0.01). Loneliness was proven to be the strongest predictor of episode emergence (OR = 17.76) and persistence (OR = 5.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The course of depression tends to become chronic and unremitting in old-age. This study may help to plan interventions to tackle symptom escalation and risk factor influence.

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE ATHLOS PROJECT: AGEING TRAJECTORIES OF HEALTH: LONGITUDINAL OPPORTUNITIES AND SYNERGIES

ATHLOS is a 5-year project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program. Its aim is to achieve a better understanding of healthy ageing, utilising longitudinal data from existing cohort studies. The measure of healthy ageing used within ATHLOS is based on the definition used by the World Health Organization as the ongoing process of developing and maintaining functional ability to enable well-being in older age. The first step of the project was to harmonise 17 community based cohort studies of ageing, covering 38 countries over the world and over 411,000 individuals. In this talk we will discuss the work of the different work packages of the project, including a description of the existing evidence on risk factors of healthy ageing.

Effective methods for knowledge transfer to strengthen mental health systems in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

The Emerald project's focus is on how to strengthen mental health systems in six low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (Ethiopia, India, Nepal, Nigeria, South Africa and Uganda). This was done by generating evidence and capacity to enhance health system performance in delivering mental healthcare.A common problem in scaling-up interventions and strengthening mental health programmes in LMICs is how to transfer research evidence, such as the data collected in the Emerald project, into practice.

AIMS

To describe how core elements of Emerald were implemented and aligned with the ultimate goal of strengthening mental health systems, as well as their short-term impact on practices, policies and programmes in the six partner countries.

METHOD

We focused on the involvement of policy planners, managers, patients and carers.

RESULTS

Over 5 years of collaboration, the Emerald consortium has provided evidence and tools for the improvement of mental healthcare in the six LMICs involved in the project. We found that the knowledge transfer efforts had an impact on mental health service delivery and policy planning at the sites and countries involved in the project.

CONCLUSIONS

This approach may be valid beyond the mental health context, and may be effective for any initiative that aims at implementing evidence-based health policies for health system strengthening.

Strengthening mental health systems in low- and middle-income countries: recommendations from the Emerald programme

BACKGROUND

There is a large treatment gap for mental, neurological or substance use (MNS) disorders. The 'Emerging mental health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)' (Emerald) research programme attempted to identify strategies to work towards reducing this gap through the strengthening of mental health systems.

AIMS

To provide a set of proposed recommendations for mental health system strengthening in LMICs.

METHOD

The Emerald programme was implemented in six LMICs in Africa and Asia (Ethiopia, India, Nepal, Nigeria, South Africa and Uganda) over a 5-year period (2012-2017), and aimed to improve mental health outcomes in the six countries by building capacity and generating evidence to enhance health system strengthening.

RESULTS

The proposed recommendations align closely with the World Health Organization's key health system strengthening 'building blocks' of governance, financing, human resource development, service provision and information systems; knowledge transfer is included as an additional cross-cutting component. Specific recommendations are made in the paper for each of these building blocks based on the body of data that were collected and analysed during Emerald.

CONCLUSIONS

These recommendations are relevant not only to the six countries in which their evidential basis was generated, but to other LMICs as well; they may also be generalisable to other non-communicable diseases beyond MNS disorders.

DECLARATION OF INTEREST

None.

Factors associated with poor functional outcome in bipolar disorder: sociodemographic, clinical, and neurocognitive variables

OBJECTIVE

The current investigation aimed at studying the sociodemographic, clinical, and neuropsychological variables related to functional outcome in a sample of euthymic patients with bipolar disorder(BD) presenting moderate-severe levels of functional impairment.

METHODS

Two-hundred and thirty-nine participants with BD disorders and with Functioning Assessment Short Test(FAST) scores equal or above 18 were administered a clinical and diagnostic interview, and the administration of mood measure scales and a comprehensive neuropsychological battery. Analyses involved preliminary Pearson bivariate correlations to identify sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with the FAST total score. Regarding neuropsychological variables, a principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to group the variables in orthogonal factors. Finally, a hierarchical multiple regression was run.

RESULTS

The best fitting model for the variables associated with functioning was a linear combination of gender, age, estimated IQ, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D), number of previous manic episodes, Factor 1 and Factor 2 extracted from the PCA. The model, including all these previous variables, explained up to 29.4% of the observed variance.

CONCLUSIONS

Male gender, older age, lower premorbid IQ, subdepressive symptoms, higher number of manic episodes, and lower performance in verbal memory, working memory, verbal fluency, and processing speed were associated with lower functioning in patients with BD.

Predicting suicidal behaviour after first episode of non-affective psychosis: The role of neurocognitive functioning

BACKGROUND

Suicide has been recognised as one of the major causes of premature death in psychosis. However, predicting suicidal behaviour (SB) is still challenging in the clinical setting and the association of neurocognition with SB in psychosis remains poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the role of neurocognitive performance as predictor of SB. Also, we sought to explore differences in the evolution of clinical and neurocognitive functioning between participants with/without history of suicide attempts (SA) over follow-up period.

METHODS

The sample of the study is composed by 517 patients. Sociodemographic, clinical, functional and neurocognitive measures were evaluated at baseline as well as 1-year and 3 years after first episode of psychosis. Bivariate and multivariate analyses explored the influence of these variables as putative baseline predictors of SB. Repeated measures analyses of variance tested differences in clinical and neurocognitive outcomes at 1- and 3-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Global cognitive functioning (GCF) (OR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.25-2.67) and severe depressive symptoms (OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.07-1.28) predicted SB. Longitudinal analyses revealed that patients with SB at follow-up presented with higher levels of remission in terms of positive psychotic symptoms and depression. In addition, those with a history of SB had worse GCF and visual memory than those without such antecedents.

CONCLUSIONS

GCF was found to be the most robust predictor of SB along with severe depressive symptomatology. Hence, poorer cognitive performance in FEP appears to emerge as a risk factor for suicidal behaviour from early stages of the illness and a comprehensive neurocognitive assessment may contribute to risk assessment.

High cognitive reserve in bipolar disorders as a moderator of neurocognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Cognitive reserve (CR) reflects the capacity of the brain to endure neuropathology, minimize clinical manifestations and successfully complete cognitive tasks. The present study aims to determine whether high CR may constitute a moderator of cognitive functioning in bipolar disorder (BD).

METHODS

102 patients with BD and 32 healthy controls were enrolled. All patients met DSM-IV criteria for I or II BD and were euthymic (YMRS≤6 and HDRS≤8) during a 6-month period. All participants were tested with a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, and a Cerebral Reserve Score (CRS) was estimated. Subjects with a CRS below the group median were classified as having low CR, whereas participants with a CRS above the median value were considered to have high CR.

RESULTS

Participants with BD with high CR displayed a better performance in measures of attention (digits forward: F=4.554, p=0.039); phonemic and semantic verbal fluency (FAS: F=9.328, p=0.004; and Animal Naming: F=8.532, p=0.006); and verbal memory (short cued recall of California Verbal Learning Test: F=4.236, p=0.046), after multivariable adjustment for potential confounders, including number of admissions and prior psychotic symptoms.

LIMITATIONS

The cross-sectional design of the study does not allow the establishment of causal inferences. Additionally, the small size of the sample may have limited some results.

CONCLUSIONS

High cognitive reserve may therefore be a valuable construct to explore for predicting neurocognitive performance in patients with BD regarding premorbid status.

Cognitive reserve in bipolar disorder: relation to cognition, psychosocial functioning and quality of life

OBJECTIVE

Cognitive reserve (CR) is a concept that was postulated as a protective factor for some clinical symptoms after the observation that there is not a direct relationship between the degree of brain damage and its clinical manifestation. This study aimed to explore the association between CR and the main outcomes in bipolar disorder (BD): cognitive functions, psychosocial functioning and perceived quality of life.

METHOD

A sample of 224 euthymic bipolar patients was assessed with a neuropsychological battery, the Functioning Assessment Short Test and the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). CR was calculated through three proxies: estimated premorbid Intelligent Quotient, educational level and occupational attainment. Relationships between CR and cognitive functions, psychosocial functioning and quality of life were assessed by multiple linear regression models.

RESULTS

Higher CR was associated with better cognitive functioning (P < 0.001 in processing speed, working memory, verbal and visual memory, and executive function; P = 0.026 in attention) and better psychosocial functioning (P = 0.008). For quality of life, CR was positively associated with the physical component of the SF-36 (P = 0.016) but negatively associated with the mental component (P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that CR may play an important role in the course and prognosis of bipolar patients and it should be considered in both clinical and research settings related to BD.

Functional remediation in bipolar disorder: 1-year follow-up of neurocognitive and functional outcome

BACKGROUND

Few randomised clinical trials have examined the efficacy of an intervention aimed at improving psychosocial functioning in bipolar disorder.

AIMS

To examine changes in psychosocial functioning in a group that has been enrolled in a functional remediation programme 1 year after baseline.

METHOD

This was a multicentre, randomised, rater-masked clinical trial comparing three patient groups: functional remediation, psychoeducation and treatment as usual over 1-year follow-up. The primary outcome was change in psychosocial functioning measured by means of the Functioning Assessment Short Test (FAST). Group×time effects for overall psychosocial functioning were examined using repeated-measures ANOVA (trial registration NCT01370668).

RESULTS

There was a significant group×time interaction for overall psychosocial functioning, favouring patients in the functional remediation group (F = 3.071, d.f. = 2, P = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Improvement in psychosocial functioning is maintained after 1-year follow-up in patients with bipolar disorder receiving functional remediation.

Effects of functional remediation on neurocognitively impaired bipolar patients: enhancement of verbal memory

BACKGROUND

Functional remediation is a novel intervention with demonstrated efficacy at improving functional outcome in euthymic bipolar patients. However, in a previous trial no significant changes in neurocognitive measures were detected. The objective of the present analysis was to test the efficacy of this therapy in the enhancement of neuropsychological functions in a subgroup of neurocognitively impaired bipolar patients.

METHOD

A total of 188 out of 239 DSM-IV euthymic bipolar patients performing below two standard deviations from the mean of normative data in any neurocognitive test were included in this subanalysis. Repeated-measures analyses of variance were conducted to assess the impact of the treatment arms [functional remediation, psychoeducation, or treatment as usual (TAU)] on participants' neurocognitive and functional outcomes in the subgroup of neurocognitively impaired patients.

RESULTS

Patients receiving functional remediation (n = 56) showed an improvement on delayed free recall when compared with the TAU (n = 63) and psychoeducation (n = 69) groups as shown by the group × time interaction at 6-month follow-up [F 2,158 = 3.37, degrees of freedom (df) = 2, p = 0.037]. However, Tukey post-hoc analyses revealed that functional remediation was only superior when compared with TAU (p = 0.04), but not with psychoeducation (p = 0.10). Finally, the patients in the functional remediation group also benefited from the treatment in terms of functional outcome (F 2,158 = 4.26, df = 2, p = 0.016).

CONCLUSIONS

Functional remediation is effective at improving verbal memory and psychosocial functioning in a sample of neurocognitively impaired bipolar patients at 6-month follow-up. Neurocognitive enhancement may be one of the active ingredients of this novel intervention, and, specifically, verbal memory appears to be the most sensitive function that improves with functional remediation.

Predictors of neurocognitive impairment at 3 years after a first episode non-affective psychosis

BACKGROUND

Neurocognitive impairment is a core component of schizophrenia. However, patients show great variability in the level and course of deficits. The goal of the present longitudinal study was to identify predictors of neurocognitive impairment in first episode psychosis patients.

METHODS

Neurocognitive performance was analyzed in a cohort of 146 patients 3 years after a first episode non-affective psychosis. Subgroups, impaired vs. unimpaired, were compared on baseline clinical, neuropsychological, premorbid and sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine percent of participants presented general neurocognitive impairment and regression analyses demonstrated that clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were not predictive variables. A model composed of premorbid IQ, verbal memory and motor dexterity correctly classified 79.6% of the individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study gives information on frequency and neurocognitive profile of subtypes of patients showing impairment. Our results suggest general neurocognitive impairment is a trait dimension of the disorder related to specific cognitive dysfunctions.

Evidence for the early clinical relevance of hallucinatory-delusional states in the general population

OBJECTIVE

To analyze, in a general population sample, clustering of delusional and hallucinatory experiences in relation to environmental exposures and clinical parameters.

METHOD

General population-based household surveys of randomly selected adults between 18 and 65 years of age were carried out.

SETTING

52 countries participating in the World Health Organization's World Health Survey were included.

PARTICIPANTS

225 842 subjects (55.6% women), from nationally representative samples, with an individual response rate of 98.5% within households participated.

RESULTS

Compared with isolated delusions and hallucinations, co-occurrence of the two phenomena was associated with poorer outcome including worse general health and functioning status (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.92-0.93), greater severity of symptoms (OR = 2.5 95% CI: 2.0-3.0), higher probability of lifetime diagnosis of psychotic disorder (OR = 12.9; 95% CI: 11.5-14.4), lifetime treatment for psychotic disorder (OR = 19.7; 95% CI: 17.3-22.5), and depression during the last 12 months (OR = 11.6; 95% CI: 10.9-12.4). Co-occurrence was also associated with adversity and hearing problems (OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.8-2.3).

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that the co-occurrence of hallucinations and delusions in populations is not random but instead can be seen, compared with either phenomenon in isolation, as the result of more etiologic loading leading to a more severe clinical state.

A systematic review of cognitive remediation for schizo-affective and affective disorders

BACKGROUND

Cognitive remediation is accepted as an important therapeutic intervention in schizophrenia, but few studies provide data on whether the benefits extend to affective disorders.

OBJECTIVES

To review quantitatively studies of cognitive remediation with samples that included cases of schizoaffective disorder, affective psychosis, unipolar and/or bipolar disorders.

METHODS

Twenty one studies met preliminary inclusion criteria, comprising a total of 940 participants of which 35% had an affective or schizoaffective disorder. Effect sizes (ES) for pre- to post-intervention change in cognitive performance were estimated.

RESULTS

A meta-analysis of 16 studies gave a pooled ES for change in cognitive function of 0.32 (95% Confidence Intervals 0.20 to 0.43) and produced statistical homogeneity. Overall, ES were significantly positively correlated with higher proportion of schizo-affective and affective cases (r=0.61; p=0.007), even when age, gender and duration of therapy were included as covariates in the analysis (r=.59, p=0.017).

LIMITATIONS

The quality of and small number of affective disorder only studies mean the findings must be treated with caution.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated ES reflect those reported in the literature on cognitive remediation for schizophrenia. As such a conservative interpretation is that cognitive remediation has at least equivalent benefits in affective and schizo-affective disorder as demonstrated in schizophrenia. Further studies are urgently required to examine the durability of any gains with cognitive remediation in affective populations and to determine if any changes in cognitive deficits lead to improvements in symptoms or functioning and/or whether post-intervention cognitive changes differ in character or magnitude from those reported in schizophrenia.

AIDS dementia complex: incidence, clinical profile and impact of zidovudine treatment*

This study aimed to determine the incidence of AIDS dementia complex (ADC), the clinical data which distinguish it from other neurological complications of HIV infection, and the impact of zidovudine (AZT) therapy on the appearance and course of this condition. Data on the neurological complications of HIV patients treated at a community hospital from 1988 to 1992 were collected prospectively. Out of 500 AIDS patients treated at the hospital, there were 142 patients with neurological complications, with an average of 1.42 complications/patient There were 23 patients diagnosed as having ADC; with an estimated incidence of 4.6%, it was the most frequent neurological complication, after cerebral toxoplasmosis. Age was higher in patients with ADC as first manifestation of AIDS with respect to ADC patients with previous AIDS diagnosed. Compared with the group of patients suffering from other neurological complications, patients with ADC showed significant differences in several biological markers of progression to AIDS, such as hemoglobin, hematocrit, global lymphocyte count, serum β2-microglobulin and serum IgA. CD4 count was similar in both groups. Ten ADC patients had been treated previously with AZT. Dementia continued progressing in seven of these patients and remained stable in three. Of the other 13 cases not treated previously with the drug, eight received AZT therapy, and a favourable response was obtained in three patients (p = 0.068). ADC represents a major neurological complication in AIDS patients. AZT therapy may delay the appearance of ADC, but not prevent it. A trend towards a favourable response to AZT was observed in ADC patients who had not been treated with it previously.

Predicting long-term recovery from depression in community settings in Western Europe: evidence from ODIN

OBJECTIVE

To test the impact of socio-economic and psychological adversity and healthcare on long-term recovery from depression.

METHOD

A community sample of 347 people with depressive disorders was followed up after 9 years. Baseline socio-economic adversity, social support, healthcare use, and psychiatric history were identified. Respondents completed self-report instruments on current depressive status (Beck depression inventory) and longstanding psychosocial adversity (sexual, physical or emotional abuse). Univariate analyses tested for association between recovery and respondent characteristics.

RESULTS

Follow-up was achieved for 182 (52%) of the sample, of whom 75 (41%) indicated recovery from depression. Psychological adversity definitely and socio-economic adversity probably were associated with lack of recovery. Baseline healthcare had no apparent impact on outcome. Rurality and support after life events were associated with recovery. History of depression was associated with non-recovery.

CONCLUSION

Psychological adversity is, and socio-economic adversity may be, associated with long-term non-recovery from depression in community settings.

Impact of severity and type of depression on quality of life in cases identified in the community

BACKGROUND

The impact of different levels of depression severity on quality of life (QoL) is not well studied, particularly regarding ICD-10 criteria. The ICD classification of depressive episodes in three levels of severity is also controversial and the less severe category, mild, has been considered as unnecessary and not clearly distinguishable from non-clinical states. The present work aimed to test the relationship between depression severity according to ICD-10 criteria and several dimensions of functioning as assessed by Medical Outcome Study (MOS) 36-item Short Form general health survey (SF-36) at the population level.

METHOD

A sample of 551 participants from the second phase of the Outcome of Depression International Network (ODIN) study (228 controls without depression and 313 persons fulfilling ICD criteria for depressive episode) was selected for a further assessment of several variables, including QoL related to physical and mental health as measured with the SF-36.

RESULTS

Statistically significant differences between controls and the depression group were found in both physical and mental markers of health, regardless of the level of depression severity; however, there were very few differences in QoL between levels of depression as defined by ICD-10. Regardless of the presence of depression, disability, widowed status, being a woman and older age were associated with worse QoL in a structural equation analysis with covariates. Likewise, there were no differences according to the type of depression (single-episode versus recurrent).

CONCLUSIONS

These results cast doubt on the adequacy of the current ICD classification of depression in three levels of severity.

Functioning and disability in bipolar disorder: an extensive review

BACKGROUND

Bipolar disorder has generally been regarded as having a better functional outcome than schizophrenia. However, studies have suggested low functioning in bipolar patients even when they are in clinical remission. Our aim was to determine the degree of functioning and disability in bipolar patients. Secondly, we reviewed factors potentially associated with the low functioning of bipolar patients.

METHOD

The authors conducted an extensive Medline and Pubmed search of the published literature from 1980 up to December 2007, using a variety of search terms to find relevant articles. Bibliographies of retrieved papers were further analysed for publications of interest. Articles that reported clinically significant findings on functioning and disability, and research reports were reviewed in detail.

RESULTS

From these articles, we determined that bipolar disorder is associated with significant impairment in work, family and social life, beyond the acute phases of the illness. The aspects that appear to increase the risk of low functioning and disability in bipolar patients are mainly subsyndromal symptoms and neurocognitive impairment, among others.

CONCLUSIONS

Suitable pharmacological and psychological interventions may improve the level of functioning and reduce the disability in bipolar patients. Potential targets to be considered for intervention should be residual symptoms, comorbid conditions and neurocognitive deficits. Further research is required to better identify the factors that best predict functioning in bipolar patients.

Population prevalence of depression and mean Beck Depression Inventory score

BACKGROUND

For some phenomena the mean of population distributions predicts the proportion of people exceeding a threshold value.

AIMS

To investigate whether in depression, too, the population mean predicts the number of individuals at the extreme end of the distribution.

METHOD

We used data from the European Outcome in Depression International Network (ODIN) study from populations in Finland, Norway and the UK to create models that predicted the prevalence of depression based on the mean Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) score. The models were tested on data from Ireland and Spain.

RESULTS

Mean BDI score correlated well with the prevalence of depression determined by clinical interviews. A model based on the beta distribution best fitted the BDI distribution. Both models predicted the depression prevalence in Ireland and Spain fairly well.

CONCLUSIONS

The mean of a continuous population distribution of mood predicts the prevalence of depression. Characteristics of both individuals and populations determine depression rates.

Identification of personal factors that determine work outcome for adults with intellectual disability

BACKGROUND

Access to employment for people with intellectual disability (ID) has become a social priority. The aim of the present study is to try to determine which variables [sociodemographic variables, intelligence quotient (IQ), presence or absence of a psychiatric disorder, functioning, self-determination, and behavioural problems] could most reliably account for access to remunerated employment of people with ID.

METHODS

Two groups of people with ID participated in this study: (1) 69 workers in a sheltered-employment programme; and (2) 110 clients of programmes in sheltered workshops. Both programmes were run by the Pardo-Valcarce Foundation in Madrid (Spain). The following variables were assessed for every participant: IQ, functioning, behavioural problems, self-determination and presence of psychiatric symptoms. A binary logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to identify the variables that best explained work outcome (sheltered workshop programme vs. sheltered employment programme).

RESULTS

Although IQ showed no significant differences between the two groups of participants, the remaining variables did: behavioural problems, functioning, psychiatric symptoms and self-determination significantly explained work outcome. As for sociodemographic variables, whereas gender did not show any significant relationship with the labour status of the participants, significant differences were found when considering variables such as age and pension benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

All the main variables considered, except IQ, turned out to be significant. Our findings should be considered encouraging, as they apparently show that both personal and social efforts can help individuals to overcome their low intellectual functioning in order to achieve access to employment. Such study highlights the importance of a prior psychopathological evaluation and efforts to enhance self-determination in order to improve work inclusion for people with ID.

Validation of the Subjective and Objective Family Burden Interview (SOFBI/ECFOS) in primary caregivers to adults with intellectual disabilities living in the community

BACKGROUND

There is little information on the psychometric properties of instruments for assessing family care burden in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). The aim of this study is therefore to analyse the usefulness of the 'Subjective and Objective Family Burden Interview' (SOFBI) in the assessment of principal caregivers in Spain.

METHODS

The SOFBI was administered to 166 principal caregivers of adults with ID in a vocational centre. The psychometric analysis included: internal consistency, inter-rater and test-retest reliability, construct validity, convergent validity with the World Health Organization's Disability Assessment Schedule II, and feasibility.

RESULTS

The Cronbach's alpha was 0.88 for the overall interview and always above 0.7 in the quantitative subdomains. The Kappa coefficients for test-retest were between 0.5 and 0.8, whereas inter-rater agreement was nearly perfect. Maximum-likelihood factor analysis showed four well-defined factors, which fitted the previously designed domains. Feasibility was also good.

CONCLUSIONS

The SOFBI is a multi-domain, modular instrument which is feasible, reliable and valid for measuring the burden of family caregivers to adults with ID living in the community.

A framework for evidence-based mental health care and policy

OBJECTIVE

Care planning integrates a growing number of disciplines, research fields and analysis techniques. A framework of the main areas of interest with regard to evidence-based health care in mental health is provided here.

METHOD

The framework is based on the experience of working with data analysts and health and social decision makers at the PSICOST/RIRAG network, a Spanish research association which includes psychiatrists, health economists and health policy experts, as well as on a review of the literature.

RESULTS

Three main areas have been identified and described here: outcomes management, knowledge discovery from data, and decision support systems. Their use in mental health care is reviewed.

CONCLUSION

It is important to promote bridging strategies among these new fields in order to enhance communication and information transfer between the different parts involved in mental health decision making: i) clinicians and epidemiologists, ii) data analysts, iii) care policy makers and other end-users.

Predictors of compliance with psychological interventions offered in the community

BACKGROUND

This study sought to evaluate the acceptance of two brief psychological interventions for depressed individuals, contacted through a community survey, and to look for predictors of adherence at the patient level.

METHOD

The authors used data from the Outcomes of Depression International Network (ODIN) study, which included a randomized controlled trial in which depressed individuals from five European countries, and nine geographical areas were assigned to one of three groups: individual problem-solving treatment, group psychoeducation, or control group. In this analysis, we included all of the individuals who had been assigned to one of the psychological interventions. Compliance with intervention was defined in two different ways. Multiple logistic regression was used to see which variables might predict an individual's compliance with psychological treatment.

RESULTS

Psychological intervention was offered to 236 subjects. Treatment was completed by 128 subjects and not by 108 (compliance definition A). Three variables were found to have an effect on compliance A: the presence of a confidant, the use of antidepressant medication during the previous 6 months, and the previous use of any social or health services. On the other hand, 164 subjects had agreed to at least start the treatment, and 72 had not (compliance definition B). The three factors associated with compliance B were presence of a confidant, previous use of services, and the 'desire for change' score.

CONCLUSIONS

Social support and previous use of services are the main predictors of compliance with a psychological treatment in depressed individuals from the community. Implications for clinical practice and community programs are discussed.

Developing core sets for persons with bipolar disorder based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health

INTRODUCTION

Functioning is increasingly being taken into account when assessing the impact of bipolar disorder (BD) on the individual, as well as the effectiveness of treatments. With the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), we can now rely on a globally agreed-upon framework and system for classifying the typical spectrum of problems in functioning, given the environmental context in which subjects live. ICF Core Sets are subgroups of ICF items selected to capture those aspects of functioning that are most likely to be affected by specific disorders. Within a given disorder, both Brief and Comprehensive Core Sets can be established to serve specific purposes.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper is to outline the development process of the ICF Core Sets for BD.

METHODS

The final definition of ICF Core Sets for BD will be determined at an ICF Core-Sets Consensus Conference, which will integrate evidence from preliminary studies, namely (a) semi-structured interviews with people with BD in different countries, (b) a Delphi exercise with international experts participating and (c) a cross-sectional study.

CONCLUSION

ICF Core Sets are being designed with the goal of providing useful standards for research, clinical practice and teaching. We believe that these ICF Core Sets for BD will stimulate research leading to improved understanding of functioning, disability and health in BD. Such research, we hope, will lead to interventions and accommodations to improve restoration and maintenance of functioning and minimise disability among people with BD throughout the world.

Functional outcome in bipolar disorder: the role of clinical and cognitive factors

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have examined the clinical, neuropsychological and pharmacological factors involved in the functional outcome of bipolar disorder despite the gap between clinical and functional recovery.

METHODS

A sample of 77 euthymic bipolar patients were included in the study. Using an a priori definition of low versus good functional outcome, based on the psychosocial items of the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF, DSM-IV), and taking also into account their occupational adaptation, the patients were divided into two groups: good or low occupational functioning. Patients with high (n = 46) and low (n = 31) functioning were compared on several clinical, neuropsychological and pharmacological variables and the two patient groups were contrasted with healthy controls (n = 35) on cognitive performance.

RESULTS

High- and low-functioning groups did not differ with respect to clinical variables. However, bipolar patients in general showed poorer cognitive performance than healthy controls. This was most evident in low-functioning patients and in particular on verbal memory and executive function measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-functioning patients were cognitively more impaired than highly functioning patients on verbal recall and executive functions. The variable that best predicted psychosocial functioning in bipolar patients was verbal memory.

Cost-effectiveness of different clinical interventions for reducing the burden of schizophrenia in Spain

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of interventions for reducing the burden of schizophrenia in Spain.

METHOD

The study examined the cost-effectiveness of seven different types of clinical interventions at the level of Spanish population: i) current situation; ii) older antipsychotics alone; iii) new antipsychotics alone (risperidone); iv) older antipsychotics plus psychosocial treatment; v) new antipsychotics plus psychosocial treatment; vi) older antipsychotics plus case management and psychosocial treatment; vii) new antipsychotics plus case management and psychosocial treatment.

RESULTS

Interventions based on the combination of haloperidol with psychosocial treatment or psychosocial treatment plus case management proved to be the most efficient strategies.

CONCLUSION

The relatively modest additional cost of concurrent psychosocial treatment has significant health gains, thereby making such a combined strategy for schizophrenia more cost-effective than pharmacology alone.

Lithium and venlafaxine interaction: a case of serotonin syndrome

Serotonin syndrome, which occurs as a result of enhanced serotonin concentration in the central nervous system, is a well-known adverse effect of serotonin-active medications. The concomitant use of antidepressant drugs associated with lithium as a co-adjuvant seems to increase the risk of this adverse reaction. We report a case of the serotonin syndrome during treatment with lithium and venlafaxine, an antidepressant with a dual selective re-uptake inhibition mechanism, and review the literature for similar cases. A 71-year-old woman developed serotonin syndrome while receiving treatment with moderate doses of lithium and venlafaxine for refractory depression. She had been taking higher doses of venlafaxine during the previous months with no significant secondary effects. Use of the Naranjo adverse drug reaction probability algorithm indicated a probable relationship between serotonin syndrome and treatment with lithium and venlafaxine.

Estimating the prevalence of schizophrenia in Spain using a disease model

There are two main sources of information on the epidemiology of schizophrenia: prevalence and incidence studies. Prevalence rates can be estimated from incidence figures, and vice versa. The present article aims to provide an estimate of the prevalence of schizophrenia in Spain, calculated from epidemiological and demographic data, using a disease model of schizophrenia which applies the specific methodology of the WHO Global Burden of Disease project. Our model assumes a causal relationship between incidence and prevalence, but takes into account other competing risk factors of mortality; this approach is more realistic than one assuming a simple linear relationship between both parameters. Our findings indicate an estimated mean prevalence of 3.0 per 1000 inhabitants per year for men, but slightly lower for women: 2.86 per 1000. Our model enables us to compare incidence figures with those provided by prevalence studies and obtain accurate estimates of the distribution of schizophrenia in the general population, which can be used to better identify treatment needs and the consequent allocation of resources.

[Use of quality of life measures in mental health economics and care planning]

Quality of life measurement is a key element in health economics and healthcare planning, particularly in chronic diseases associated to high morbidity and disability (i.e., mental disorders). This paper provides a critical review on the theoretical background of utility, on the methods for developing measures based on health preferences or values, and the composite indexes derived from them (DALY and QALY). Then the practical use in mental health is revised both in burden of disease studies and cost-utility analysis. There is an important requirement on the part of mental health researchers and policy makers alike to pay close attention to the underlying methods and construction of utility-based estimates of health outcome.