Blood-based biological ageing and red cell distribution width are associated with prevalent Parkinson's disease: findings from a large Italian population cohort

Background

Aging clocks tag the actual underlying age of an organism and its discrepancy with chronological age and have been reported to predict incident disease risk in the general population. However, the relationship with neurodegenerative risk and in particular with Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains unclear, with few discordant findings reporting associations with both incident and prevalent PD risk.

Objective

To clarify this relationship, we computed a common aging clock based on blood markers and tested the resulting discrepancy with chronological age (ΔPhenoAge) for association with both incident and prevalent PD risk.

Methods

In a large Italian population cohort - the Moli-sani study (N=23,437; age ≥ 35 years; 52% women) - we carried out both Cox Proportional Hazards regressions modelling ΔPhenoAge as exposure and incident PD as outcome, and linear models testing prevalent PD as exposure and ΔPhenoAge as outcome. All models were incrementally adjusted for age, sex, education level completed and other risk/protective factors previously associated with PD risk in the same cohort (prevalent dysthyroidism, hypertension, diabetes, use of oral contraceptives, exposure to paints, daily coffee intake and cigarette smoking).

Results

No significant association between incident PD risk (209 cases, median (IQR) follow-up time 11.19 (2.03) years) and PhenoAging was observed (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.98 [0.71; 1.37]). However, a small but significant increase of ΔPhenoAge was observed in prevalent PD cases vs healthy subjects (β (Standard Error) = 1.39 (0.70)). An analysis of each component biomarker of PhenoAge revealed a significant positive association of prevalent PD status with red cell distribution width (RDW; β (SE) = 0.46 (0.18)). All the remaining markers did not show any significant evidence of association.

Conclusion

The reported evidence highlights systemic effects of prevalent PD status on biological aging and red cell distribution width. Further cohort and functional studies may help shedding a light on the related pathways altered at the organism level in prevalent PD, like red cells variability, inflammatory and oxidative stress mechanisms.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Identifying brain tumor patients' subtypes based on pre-diagnostic history and clinical characteristics: a pilot hierarchical clustering and association analysis

Introduction

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors are severe health conditions with increasing incidence in the last years. Different biological, environmental and clinical factors are thought to have an important role in their epidemiology, which however remains unclear.

Objective

The aim of this pilot study was to identify CNS tumor patients' subtypes based on this information and to test associations with tumor malignancy.

Methods

90 patients with suspected diagnosis of CNS tumor were recruited by the Neurosurgery Unit of IRCCS Neuromed. Patients underwent anamnestic and clinical assessment, to ascertain known or suspected risk factors including lifestyle, socioeconomic, clinical and psychometric characteristics. We applied a hierarchical clustering analysis to these exposures to identify potential groups of patients with a similar risk pattern and tested whether these clusters associated with brain tumor malignancy.

Results

Out of 67 patients with a confirmed CNS tumor diagnosis, we identified 28 non-malignant and 39 malignant tumor cases. These subtypes showed significant differences in terms of gender (with men more frequently presenting a diagnosis of cancer; p = 6.0 ×10-3) and yearly household income (with non-malignant tumor patients more frequently earning ≥25k Euros/year; p = 3.4×10-3). Cluster analysis revealed the presence of two clusters of patients: one (N=41) with more professionally active, educated, wealthier and healthier patients, and the other one with mostly retired and less healthy men, with a higher frequency of smokers, personal history of cardiovascular disease and cancer familiarity, a mostly sedentary lifestyle and generally lower income, education and cognitive performance. The former cluster showed a protective association with the malignancy of the disease, with a 74 (14-93) % reduction in the prevalent risk of CNS malignant tumors, compared to the other cluster (p=0.026).

Discussion

These preliminary data suggest that patients' profiling through unsupervised machine learning approaches may somehow help predicting the risk of being affected by a malignant form. If confirmed by further analyses in larger independent cohorts, these findings may be useful to create potential intelligent ranking systems for treatment priority, overcoming the lack of histopathological information and molecular diagnosis of the tumor, which are typically not available until the time of surgery.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Biomarkers of aging in frailty and age-associated disorders: State of the art and future perspective

According to the Geroscience concept that organismal aging and age-associated diseases share the same basic molecular mechanisms, the identification of biomarkers of age that can efficiently classify people as biologically older (or younger) than their chronological (i.e. calendar) age is becoming of paramount importance. These people will be in fact at higher (or lower) risk for many different age-associated diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, neurodegeneration, cancer, etc. In turn, patients suffering from these diseases are biologically older than healthy age-matched individuals. Many biomarkers that correlate with age have been described so far. The aim of the present review is to discuss the usefulness of some of these biomarkers (especially soluble, circulating ones) in order to identify frail patients, possibly before the appearance of clinical symptoms, as well as patients at risk for age-associated diseases. An overview of selected biomarkers will be discussed in this regard, in particular we will focus on biomarkers related to metabolic stress response, inflammation, and cell death (in particular in neurodegeneration), all phenomena connected to inflammaging (chronic, low-grade, age-associated inflammation). In the second part of the review, next-generation markers such as extracellular vesicles and their cargos, epigenetic markers and gut microbiota composition, will be discussed. Since recent progresses in omics techniques have allowed an exponential increase in the production of laboratory data also in the field of biomarkers of age, making it difficult to extract biological meaning from the huge mass of available data, Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches will be discussed as an increasingly important strategy for extracting knowledge from raw data and providing practitioners with actionable information to treat patients.

Risk and protective factors in Parkinson's disease: a simultaneous and prospective study with classical statistical and novel machine learning models

BACKGROUND

Several environmental/lifestyle factors have been individually investigated in previous Parkinson's disease (PD) studies with controversial results. No study has prospectively and simultaneously investigated potential risk/protective factors of PD using both classical statistical and novel machine learning analyses. The latter may reveal more complex associations and new factors that are undetected by merely linear models. To fill this gap, we simultaneously investigated potential risk/protective factors involved in PD in a large prospective population study using both approaches.

METHODS

Participants in the Moli-sani study were enrolled between 2005 and 2010 and followed up until December 2018. Incident PD cases were identified by individual-level record linkage to regional hospital discharge forms, the Italian death registry, and the regional prescription register. Exposure to potential risk/protective factors was assessed at baseline. Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) regression models and survival random forests (SRF) were built to identify the most influential factors.

RESULTS

We identified 213 incident PD cases out of 23,901 subjects. Cox PH models revealed that age, sex, dysthyroidism and diabetes were associated with an increased risk of PD. Both hyper and hypothyroidism were independently associated with PD risk. SRF showed that age was the most influential factor in PD risk, followed by coffee intake, daily physical activity, and hypertension.

CONCLUSION

This study sheds light on the role of dysthyroidism, diabetes and hypertension in PD onset, characterized to date by an uncertain relationship with PD, and also confirms the relevance of most factors (age, sex, coffee intake, daily physical activity) reportedly shown be associated with PD. Further methodological developments in SRF models will allow to untangle the nature of the potential non-linear relationships identified.

Rationale and design of the CV-PREVITAL study: an Italian multiple cohort randomised controlled trial investigating innovative digital strategies in primary cardiovascular prevention

INTRODUCTION

Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is of key importance in reducing morbidity, disability and mortality worldwide. Observational studies suggest that digital health interventions can be an effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, evidence from large randomised clinical trials is lacking.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The CV-PREVITAL study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised, controlled, open-label interventional trial designed to compare the effectiveness of an educational and motivational mobile health (mHealth) intervention versus usual care in reducing CV risk. The intervention aims at improving diet, physical activity, sleep quality, psycho-behavioural aspects, as well as promoting smoking cessation and adherence to pharmacological treatment for CV risk factors. The trial aims to enrol approximately 80 000 subjects without overt CVDs referring to general practitioners' offices, community pharmacies or clinics of Scientific Institute for Research, Hospitalization and Health Care (Italian acronym IRCCS) affiliated with the Italian Cardiology Network. All participants are evaluated at baseline and after 12 months to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on short-term endpoints, namely improvement in CV risk score and reduction of major CV risk factors. Beyond the funded life of the study, a long-term (7 years) follow-up is also planned to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on the incidence of major adverse CV events. A series of ancillary studies designed to evaluate the effect of the mHealth intervention on additional risk biomarkers are also performed.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethics approval from the ethics committee of the coordinating centre (Monzino Cardiology Center; R1256/20-CCM 1319) and from all other relevant IRBs and ethics committees. Findings are disseminated through scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals and via social media. Partners are informed about the study's course and findings through regular meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05339841.

Association between BMI, RFM and mortality and potential mediators: Prospective findings from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND

Body mass index (BMI) is the most frequently used adiposity measure, yet it is unable to differentiate fat mass from lean mass. Relative fat mass (RFM) has been proposed as an alternative. This paper aims to study RFM and BMI association with mortality in a general Italian population and potential mediators of such association.

METHODS

20,587 individuals from the Moli-sani cohort were analysed (mean age = 54 ± 11, women = 52%, median follow up = 11.2 years, interquartile range = 1.96 years). Cox regressions were used to assess BMI, RFM, and their interactive association with mortality. Dose-response relationships were computed with spline regression, mediation analysis was performed. All analyses were separated for men and women.

RESULTS

Men and women with BMI > 35 kg/m² and men in the 4th quartile of RFM showed an independent association with mortality (HR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.30-2.26 BMI in men, HR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.01-1.85 BMI in women, HR = 1.37 CI 95% = 1.11-1.68 RFM in men), that was lost once adjusted for potential mediators. Cubic splines showed a U-shaped association for BMI in men and women, and for RFM in men. Mediation analysis showed that 46.5% of the association of BMI with mortality in men was mediated by glucose, C reactive protein, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), and cystatin C; 82.9% of the association of BMI in women was mediated by HOMA index, cystatin C and FEV1; lastly, 55% of RFM association with mortality was mediated by glucose, FEV1 and cystatin C. Regression models including BMI and RFM showed that RFM drives most of the risk in men, but is not predictive in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between anthropometric measures and mortality was U shaped and it was largely dependent on sex. Associations were mediated by glucose metabolism, renal and lung function. Public health interventions should mainly focus on people with severe obesity or impaired metabolic, renal, or respiratory function.

Association between the Inflammatory Potential of the Diet and Biological Aging: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 4510 Adults from the Moli-Sani Study Cohort

Chronological age (CA) may not accurately reflect the health status of an individual. Rather, biological age (BA) or hypothetical underlying "functional" age has been proposed as a relevant indicator of healthy aging. Observational studies have found that decelerated biological aging or Δage (BA-CA) is associated with a lower risk of disease and mortality. In general, CA is associated with low-grade inflammation, a condition linked to the risk of the incidence of disease and overall cause-specific mortality, and is modulated by diet. To address the hypothesis that diet-related inflammation is associated with Δage, a cross-sectional analysis of data from a sub-cohort from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010, Italy) was performed. The inflammatory potential of the diet was measured using the Energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII^TM) and a novel literature-based dietary inflammation score (DIS). A deep neural network approach based on circulating biomarkers was used to compute BA, and the resulting Δage was fit as the dependent variable. In 4510 participants (men 52.0%), the mean of CA (SD) was 55.6 y (±11.6), BA 54.8 y (±8.6), and Δage -0.77 (±7.7). In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increase in E-DII^TM and DIS scores led to an increase in Δage (β = 0.22; 95%CI 0.05, 0.38; β = 0.27; 95%CI 0.10, 0.44, respectively). We found interaction for DIS by sex and for E-DII^TM by BMI. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with accelerated biological aging, which likely leads to an increased long-term risk of inflammation-related diseases and mortality.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Food processing and risk of central nervous system tumours: A preliminary case-control analysis from the MEditerranean DIet in relation to CancEr of brAin (MEDICEA) study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between diet and central nervous system (CNS) tumours was almost exclusively focused on food composition. We evaluated the relationship of different degrees of food processing with risk of CNS tumours.

METHODS

The study sample included 44 CNS tumours cases (20 non-malignant and 24 malignant) recruited from the Neurosurgery Department at the IRCCS Neuromed (Italy), and 88 controls matched 1:2 for sex and age± 10 years, identified from the Moli-sani Study. Dietary intake was assessed using a 188-item FFQ. Food items were grouped according to the NOVA classification on the basis of processing as: (1) unprocessed/minimally processed foods; (2) processed culinary ingredients; (3) processed foods; and (4) ultra-processed food (UPF). Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of dietary contributions from each NOVA group (as weight ratio on the total food eaten) and adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In a multivariable conditional to match logistic regression analysis also controlled for overall diet quality, 1% increment in UPF intake was associated with higher odds of all CNS tumours (OR = 1.06; 1.01-1.13), particularly of malignant CNS tumours (OR = 1.11; 1.02-1.22), while no association with non-malignant CNS tumours was found (OR = 1.06; 0.99-1.15). In contrast, only processed food was inversely associated with risk of both CNS tumours overall (OR = 0.94; 0.90-0.98) and of malignant CNS tumours (OR = 0.90; 0.83-0.96).

CONCLUSION

Increasing UPF intake was associated with higher risk of CNS tumours, especially malignant ones, independently of the overall diet quality, while only processed food (but not UPF) was inversely related to the risk of this disease.

Association of nutritional glycaemic indices with global DNA methylation patterns: results from the Moli-sani cohort

BACKGROUND

High dietary glycaemic index (GI) and load (GL) have been associated with increased risk of various cardiometabolic conditions. Among the molecular potential mechanisms underlying this relationship, DNA methylation has been studied, but a direct link between high GI and/or GL of diet and global DNA methylation levels has not been proved yet. We analyzed the associations between GI and GL and global DNA methylation patterns within an Italian population.

RESULTS

Genomic DNA methylation (5mC) and hydroxymethylation (5hmC) levels were measured in 1080 buffy coat samples from participants of the Moli-sani study (mean(SD) = 54.9(11.5) years; 52% women) via ELISA. A 188-item Food Frequency Questionnaire was used to assess food intake and dietary GI and GL for each participant were calculated. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the associations between dietary GI and GL and global 5mC and 5hmC levels, as well as the proportion of effect explained by metabolic and inflammatory markers. We found negative associations of GI with both 5mC (β (SE) = - 0.073 (0.027), p = 0.007) and 5hmC (- 0.084 (0.030), p = 0.006), and of GL with 5mC (- 0.14 (0.060), p = 0.014). Circulating biomarkers did not explain the above-mentioned associations. Gender interaction analyses revealed a significant association of the gender-x-GL interaction with 5mC levels, with men showing an inverse association three times as negative as in women (interaction β (SE) = - 0.16 (0.06), p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that global DNA methylation and hydroxymethylation patterns represent a biomarker of carbohydrate intake. Based on the differential association of GL with 5mC between men and women, further gender-based separate approaches are warranted.

Increased Adherence to a Mediterranean Diet Is Associated with Reduced Low-Grade Inflammation after a 12.7-Year Period: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

There is little knowledge on the association of changes over time in adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) with changes in modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and of markers of low-grade inflammation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between long-term changes in MD adherence and concurrent changes in established CVD risk factors and in markers of low-grade inflammation among adult Italians.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study was conducted. Dietary and health data were obtained both at baseline (2005-2010) and at follow-up (2017-2020). Adherence to the MD was estimated by a Mediterranean Diet Score ranging from zero to nine points, and the exposure was change in this score measured after a median 12.7-year period.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

This study included a subgroup of 897 men and 1,126 women aged ≥35 years at enrolment in the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in two composite z scores, including nine established CVD risk factors (eg, serum lipid levels and blood pressure) and four inflammatory markers (including C-reactive protein), respectively, were measured both at enrolment and after the same 12.7-year period.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models were used.

RESULTS

In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increased Mediterranean Diet Score over time was associated with decreased levels in the Inflammatory score (β = -0.372, 95% CI -0.720 to -0.025), but had little or no influence on the CVD risk score (β = -0.200, 95% CI -0.752 to 0.351), compared with individuals who had decreased their MD adherence. Among individual food groups/nutrients included in the Mediterranean Diet Score, an increased intake of monounsaturated over saturated fats over time was associated with lower CVD Risk Score, whereas increased consumption of cereals was inversely linked to the Inflammatory Score, compared with the reduced consumption group.

CONCLUSIONS

An increased adherence to a traditional MD over time was associated with reduced low-grade inflammation. These findings suggest the potential of a traditional Mediterranean eating pattern to help reduce the long-term risk of inflammation-related chronic diseases in an ageing population.

Untangling the influence of depression on clinical risks: role of leukocytes and somatic symptoms

Background

Depression has been associated with increased hospitalization and mortality risk, especially for cardiovascular causes. We previously found a composite circulating inflammation score (INFLA-score) to explain part of this link, although the role of its component and of depressive symptoms domains in this relationship is unexplored.

Methods

In an Italian population cohort (N = 13,191; age≥35 years; 51.7 % women; 4,856 hospitalizations and 471 deaths, median follow-up 7.28/8.24 years), we estimated the proportion of association explained by C-reactive protein levels (CRP), platelet count, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR) and white blood cell counts (WBC), in multivariable Cox regressions modelling first hospitalization/mortality for all and cardiovascular (CVD), ischemic heart (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) causes vs depression severity based on an alternative validated version of PHQ-9. We also estimated the proportion of association explained by INFLA-score in the associations of polychoric factors tagging somatic and cognitive depressive symptoms with clinical risks.

Results

In models adjusted for age, sex and education, significant proportions of the positive influence of depression on clinical risks were explained by CRP (4.8% on IHD hospitalizations), GLR (11% on all-cause mortality) and WBC (24% on IHD/CeVD hospitalizations). Stable associations of somatic but not of cognitive depressive symptoms were observed with increased hospitalization risk (+16% for all causes, +14% for CVD causes), with INFLA-score again explaining small but significant proportions of these associations (2.5% for all causes, 8.6% for IHD causes).

Conclusions

These findings suggest a prominent explanatory role of leukocytes in the link between depression and clinical (especially CVD) risks, and highlight the importance of inflammation in the influence of somatic depressive symptoms. Therefore, acting on these factors may reduce clinical risks associated with depression.

Key messages

Air pollution is associated with the risk of neurodegenerative disorders: a prominent role of PM10

Background

Studies revealed an implication of air pollution in neurodegenerative disorders, although this link remains unclear. Here, we investigated this testing multiple pollutants simultaneously.

Methods

In the Moli-sani cohort (N = 24,325; ≥35 years; 51.9% women, baseline 2005-2010), we estimated yearly levels of exposure to nitrogen oxides (NOX, NO, NO2), ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM10) and BTX hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene and xylene) in 2006-2018, applying residence geo-localization of participants and Kriging interpolation algorithm to land measurements of air pollutants. We performed a principal component analysis and tested association of the resulting principal components (PCs) with the incident risk of Parkinson (PD) and Alzheimer disease (AD), through multivariable Cox PH regressions adjusted for age, sex and education level completed.

Results

Over 24,308 subjects with pollution data available (51.9% women, 55.8(12.0) years), we extracted three PCs explaining ≥5% of pollution exposure variance: PC1 (38.2%, tagging PM10 exposure), PC2 (19.5%, O3/CO/SO2), PC3 (8.5%, NOx/BTX hydrocarbons). Over a mean follow-up of 10.9(2.1) years, we observed statistically significant associations of PC1 with an increased risk of PD (HR[CI] = 1.04[1.02-1.05]; 405 incident cases) and AD (1.06[1.04-1.08]; 218 cases). These associations were confirmed when we analyzed PM10 levels averaged over follow-up time, in models further adjusted for professional exposures like working class, compartment and toxic compounds and lifestyles like smoking and drinking habits, physical activity and adherence to Mediterranean diet (PD: 1.27 [1.19-1.37]; AD: 1.22[1.16-1.28] per 1 μg/m3 increase of PM10).

Conclusions

This evidence supports an influence of air pollution - especially PM10 - on increased neurodegenerative risk in the Italian population, independent on concurring risk factors. This suggests reducing PM10 pollution as a potential strategy to reduce neurodegenerative risk.

Key messages

• PM10 levels are associated with increased Parkinson and Alzheimer disease risk.

• This suggests to act on air pollution to reduce neurodegenerative risk in the general population.

Genome-wide analyses of individual differences in quantitatively assessed reading- and language-related skills in up to 34,000 people

The use of spoken and written language is a fundamental human capacity. Individual differences in reading- and language-related skills are influenced by genetic variation, with twin-based heritability estimates of 30 to 80% depending on the trait. The genetic architecture is complex, heterogeneous, and multifactorial, but investigations of contributions of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were thus far underpowered. We present a multicohort genome-wide association study (GWAS) of five traits assessed individually using psychometric measures (word reading, nonword reading, spelling, phoneme awareness, and nonword repetition) in samples of 13,633 to 33,959 participants aged 5 to 26 y. We identified genome-wide significant association with word reading (rs11208009, P = 1.098 × 10-8) at a locus that has not been associated with intelligence or educational attainment. All five reading-/language-related traits showed robust SNP heritability, accounting for 13 to 26% of trait variability. Genomic structural equation modeling revealed a shared genetic factor explaining most of the variation in word/nonword reading, spelling, and phoneme awareness, which only partially overlapped with genetic variation contributing to nonword repetition, intelligence, and educational attainment. A multivariate GWAS of word/nonword reading, spelling, and phoneme awareness maximized power for follow-up investigation. Genetic correlation analysis with neuroimaging traits identified an association with the surface area of the banks of the left superior temporal sulcus, a brain region linked to the processing of spoken and written language. Heritability was enriched for genomic elements regulating gene expression in the fetal brain and in chromosomal regions that are depleted of Neanderthal variants. Together, these results provide avenues for deciphering the biological underpinnings of uniquely human traits.

Increased BMI and Blood Lipids Are Associated With a Hypercoagulable State in the Moli-sani Cohort

The coagulation system can be assessed by the thrombin generation (TG) assay, and increased TG peak height, endogenous thrombin potential (ETP), and velocity index are associated with an increased risk of thrombosis. Obesity had been reported to increase TG and is associated with dyslipidemia, which also predisposes to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the effect of the blood lipid profile on TG has not been studied extensively. To gain more insight into the associations of TG, body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile, we studied TG in relation to these parameters in a large Italian population cohort, the Moli-sani study (N = 22,546; age ≥ 35 years; 48% men). TG was measured in plasma samples collected at the enrollment of subjects in the Moli-sani study. TG was triggered with 1 or 5 pM tissue factor, and TG parameters lag time, peak, ETP, time-to-peak (TTP) and velocity index (VI). Additionally, thrombomodulin was added to assess the function of the activated protein C system during TG. In both women and men, overweight (BMI 25–30 kg/m²) and obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m²) were significantly associated with higher ETP, peak and VI (all p < 0.001). High total cholesterol, triglycerides and LDL-cholesterol levels were significantly associated with increased ETP and peak (all p < 0.001). Linear regression analysis revealed that the ETP is positively associated with both plasma LDL and HDL cholesterol levels, whereas the velocity index is positively associated with HDL cholesterol. Additionally, ETP, peak and VI were significantly associated with the plasma triglycerides content. In conclusion, our study shows significant associations of high BMI and blood lipid levels with increased TG parameters, and this hypercoagulability may partly explain the increased risk of CVD in individuals with obesity and/or dyslipidemia.

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time.

Methods

Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated.

Findings

In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432-912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9-412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs.

Interpretation

Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people.

Funding

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Does COVID-19 increase the risk of neuropsychiatric sequelae? Evidence from a mendelian randomization approach

Observational studies based on electronic health records (EHR) report an increased risk of neurological/neuropsychiatric sequelae for patients who have had coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, these studies may suffer from biases such as unmeasured confounding, residual reverse causality, or lack of precision in EHR-based diagnoses. To rule out these biases, we tested causal links between COVID-19 and different potential neurological/neuropsychiatric sequelae through a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis of summary statistics from large Genome-Wide Association Scans of susceptibility to COVID-19 and different neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders, including major depression, anxiety, schizophrenia, stroke, Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases. We found robust evidence suggesting that COVID-19 – notably the hospitalized and most severe forms – carries an increased risk of neuropsychiatric sequelae, particularly Alzheimer’s disease, and to a lesser extent anxiety disorder. In line with a large longitudinal EHR-based study, this evidence was stronger for more severe COVID-19 forms. These results call for a targeted screening strategy to tackle the post-COVID neuropsychiatric pandemic.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Retrospective Recall of Psychological Distress Experienced During the First COVID-19 Lockdown in Italy: Results From the ALT RISCOVID-19 Survey

Objectives: To estimate psychological distress experienced during the Italian lockdown (March-May 2020) by assessing, in the transition period of the pandemic (June-September 2020), participants’ recalling of their psychological state.

Methods: Cross-sectional analysis on 1,880 adults (mean age 48.9 ± 14.5 years) from the web-based ALT RISCOVID-19 survey. Participants were asked to retrospectively recall their psychological state during lockdown concerning symptoms of depression (Patients’ Health Questionnaire), anxiety (General Anxiety Disorder), stress (Perceived Stress Scale) and post-traumatic stress (Screening Questionnaire for Disaster Mental Health).

Results: Experienced symptoms of depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress was recalled by 15.8, 15.3 and 13.1% of respondents, respectively. These psychometric scales tended to decrease during the 4-month period of assessment (p < 0.05), while perceived stress levels did not (p = 0.13). Men and older individuals reported lower symptoms of depression (β = −0.42 and β = −0.42; p < 0.0001, respectively), anxiety (β = −0.41 and β = −0.45; p < 0.0001, respectively), stress (β = −0.36 and β = 0.50; p < 0.0001, respectively) and post-traumatic stress (β = −0.42; p < 0.0001, men vs women).

Conclusion: Recalled psychological distress experienced during COVID-19 lockdown tended to decrease during the transition period of the pandemic, except for stress. Women and younger people were at higher risk to recall psychological distress.

Role of leukocytes, gender, and symptom domains in the influence of depression on hospitalization and mortality risk: Findings from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND

Major depressive disorder is a mental illness associated with chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease (CVD). Circulating inflammation has been proposed as a potential mechanism underlying this link, although the role of specific biomarkers, gender, and symptom domains is not well elucidated.

METHODS

We performed multivariable Cox regressions of first hospitalization/all-cause mortality and CVD, ischemic heart (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) causes vs. depression severity in an Italian population cohort (N = 13,191; age ≥ 35 years; 49.3% men; 4,856 hospitalizations and 471 deaths, median follow-up 7.28 and 8.24 years, respectively). In models adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, we estimated the proportion of association explained by C-reactive protein (CRP), platelet count, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR), and white blood cell count (WBC). Gender-by-depression interaction and gender-stratified analyses were performed. Associations of polychoric factors tagging somatic and cognitive symptoms with incident clinical risks were also tested, as well as the proportion explained by a composite index of circulating inflammation (INFLA score).

RESULTS

Significant proportions of the influence of depression on clinical risks were explained by CRP (4.8% on IHD hospitalizations), GLR (11% on all-cause mortality), and WBC (24% on IHD/CeVD hospitalizations). Gender-by-depression interaction was significantly associated only with all-cause mortality (p = 0.03), with moderate depression showing a + 60% increased risk in women, but not in men. Stable associations of somatic, but not of cognitive, symptoms with increased hospitalization risk were observed (+ 16% for all causes, + 14% for CVD causes), with INFLA score explaining small but significant proportions of these associations (2.5% for all causes, 8.6% for IHD causes).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of cellular components of inflammation, gender, and somatic depressive symptoms in the link between depression and clinical (especially CVD) risks, pointing to the existence of additional pathways through which depression may play a detrimental effect on the cardiovascular system.

Association of Psychological Resilience with All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in a General Population in Italy: Prospective Findings from the Moli-Sani Study

Psychological resilience (PR) is the capacity to adapt positively in face of adversity. Its role as an independent protective factor has been acknowledged in recent years. We aimed to test the association of PR with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a general adult population. We performed longitudinal analyses on 10,406 CVD-free individuals from the Moli-Sani cohort (follow up = 11.2 year). PR was assessed by the 25-item Connor and Davidson resilience scale. PR factors were identified through polychoric factor analysis. Associations with mortality were tested using multivariable Cox regressions. Higher levels of PR were associated with reduced all-cause mortality in a model including sex and age (HR = 0.78; 95%CI 0.62-1.00). The association decreased after inclusion of socioeconomic, clinical, and behavioral factors into the model (HR = 0.80; 95%CI 0.62-1.03). No relation was observed with cardiovascular mortality in the fully adjusted model (HR = 0.89; 95%CI 0.56-1.39). An inverse association of Factor 1 (reflecting positive acceptance of change) with all-cause mortality (HR = 0.89; 95%CI 0.82-0.98; p value = 0.01) was found. However, at a borderline non-significant way, PR predicts all-cause mortality in a general population of Italian adults. This is supported by the findings demonstrating a significant association between the PR's domain reflecting a positive acceptance of change and all-cause mortality.

Epidemiological and genetic overlap among biological aging clocks: New challenges in biogerontology

Estimators of biological age (BA) - defined as the hypothetical underlying age of an organism - have attracted more and more attention in the last years, especially after the advent of new algorithms based on machine learning and genetic markers. While different aging clocks reportedly predict mortality in the general population, very little is known on their overlap. Here we review the evidence reported so far to support the existence of a partial overlap among different BA acceleration estimators, both from an epidemiological and a genetic perspective. On the epidemiological side, we review evidence supporting shared and independent influence on mortality risk of different aging clocks - including telomere length, brain, blood and epigenetic aging - and provide an overview of how an important exposure like diet may affect the different aging systems. On the genetic side, we apply linkage disequilibrium score regression analyses to support the existence of partly shared genomic overlap among these aging clocks. Through multivariate analysis of published genetic associations with these clocks, we also identified the most associated variants, genes, and pathways, which may affect common mechanisms underlying biological aging of different systems within the body. Based on our analyses, the most implicated pathways were involved in inflammation, lipid and carbohydrate metabolism, suggesting them as potential molecular targets for future anti-aging interventions. Overall, this review is meant as a contribution to the knowledge on the overlap of aging clocks, trying to clarify their shared biological basis and epidemiological implications.

Hydroxichloroquine for COVID-19 infection: Do we have a final word after one year?

The results presently available from randomised clinical trials and their meta-analysis indicate that Hydroxychloroquine is not associated in COVID-19 patients with either decreased mortality or clinical worsening. Thus, the use of Hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 patients cannot at present be encouraged. However, the hypothesis that Hydroxychloroquine might have a beneficial role in subgroups of patients at low risk and/or when used at low dosage (≤ 400 mg/day) deserves to be tested in large, well designed randomised clinical trials.

Psychological distress resulting from the COVID-19 confinement is associated with unhealthy dietary changes in two Italian population-based cohorts

Purpose

To examine the relationship between psychological distress resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown and dietary changes.

Methods

Cross-sectional analysis from 2 retrospective Italian cohorts recruited from May to September 2020: (1) The Moli-LOCK cohort consists of 1401 participants from the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325) who were administered a telephone-based questionnaire to assess lifestyles and psychological factors during confinement; (2) the ALT RISCOVID-19 is a web-based survey of 1340 individuals distributed throughout Italy who self-responded to the same questionnaire using Google® forms.

Psychological distress was measured by assessments of depression (PHQ-9 and depressive items from the Screening Questionnaire for Disaster Mental Health- SQD-D), anxiety (GAD-7), stress (PSS-4), and post-traumatic stress disorder (SQD-P). Diet quality was assessed either as changes in consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) or adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD).

Results

In ALT RISCOVID-19, increased UPF intake was directly associated with depression (both PHQ-9 and SQD-D; p < 0.0001), anxiety (p < 0.0001), stress (p = 0.001) and SQD-P (p = 0.001); similar results were obtained in the Moli-LOCK cohort except for perceived stress. When psychometric scales were analysed simultaneously, only depression (SQD-D) remained associated with UPF (both cohorts). In both cohorts, psychological distress poorly influenced changes toward an MD, except for depression (SQD-D) that resulted inversely associated in the ALT RISCOVID-19 participants (β = − 0.16; 95% CI − 0.26, − 0.06).

Conclusions

Psychological distress from the COVID-19 confinement is directly associated with unhealthy dietary modifications in two Italian cohorts. In view of possible future restrictive measures to contain pandemic, public health actions are warranted to mitigate the impact of psychological distress on diet quality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00394-021-02752-4.

Fine-grained investigation of the relationship between human nutrition and global DNA methylation patterns

PURPOSE

Nutrition is an important, modifiable, environmental factor affecting human health by modulating epigenetic processes, including DNA methylation (5mC). Numerous studies investigated the association of nutrition with global and gene-specific DNA methylation and evidences on animal models highlighted a role in DNA hydroxymethylation (5hmC) regulation. However, a more comprehensive analysis of different layers of nutrition in association with global levels of 5mC and 5hmC is lacking. We investigated the association between global levels of 5mC and 5hmC and human nutrition, through the stratification and analysis of dietary patterns into different nutritional layers: adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD), main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake.

METHODS

ELISA technique was used to measure global 5mC and 5hmC levels in 1080 subjects from the Moli-sani cohort. Food intake during the 12 months before enrolment was assessed using the semi-quantitative EPIC food frequency questionnaire. Complementary approaches involving both classical statistics and supervised machine learning analyses were used to investigate the associations between global 5mC and 5hmC levels and adherence to Mediterranean diet, main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake.

RESULTS

We found that global DNA methylation, but not hydroxymethylation, was associated with daily intake of zinc and vitamin B3. Random Forests algorithms predicting 5mC and 5hmC through intakes of food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients revealed a significant contribution of zinc, while vitamin B3 was reported among the most influential features.

CONCLUSION

We found that nutrition may affect global DNA methylation, suggesting a contribution of micronutrients previously implicated as cofactors in methylation pathways.

Psychological distress from the COVID-19 confinement is associated with unhealthy dietary changes

Background

The confinement due to COVID-19 pandemic had adverse effects on mental health, but the relation between psychological distress resulting from lockdown measures and dietary habits needs to be elucidated.

Methods

We analysed 2,741 subjects (mean age 58.1±15.3 y) pooled from 2 retrospective Italian cohorts recruited from May to September 2020: 1) The Moli-LOCK cohort consists of 1,401 adults, a portion of the larger Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325) who were administered a telephone-based questionnaire to assess lifestyles and psychological factors during confinement; 2) the ALT RISCOVID-19 is a web-based survey of 1,340 individuals distributed throughout Italy who self-responded to the same questionnaire by using Google® forms. Psychological distress was measured by assessments of depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), stress (PSS-4), and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Diet quality was assessed either as changes in consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) or adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD).

Results

In a multivariable regression analysis controlled for major sociodemographic factors, depression (β=-0.06, 95%CI -0.10, -0.01), anxiety (β=-0.05, -0.09, -0.004) and PTSD (β=-0.04, -0.08, -0.002) were inversely associated with MD and directly with UPF (β = 0.13, 0.09, 0.18; β = 0.12, 0.08, 0.16 and β = 0.10, 0.06, 0.13, respectively); stress was associated with UPF (β = 0.06, 0.02, 0.10) but not with MD (β=-0.03, -0.08, 0.01).

Conclusions

Psychological distress resulting from confinement due to the COVID-19 pandemic is directly associated with unhealthy dietary modifications in a sample of the Italian population. In view of possible future restrictive measures, particular attention should be paid to public health actions promoting psychological support to more vulnerable groups.

Key messages

Psychological distress resulting from confinement due to the COVID-19 pandemic is directly associated with unhealthy dietary modifications.

Particular attention should be paid to public health actions promoting psychological support to more vulnerable groups also in view of future restrictive measures to contain the pandemic spread.

Economic hardship from the great recession and long-term changes in depression and quality of life

Background

Economic downturns may have detrimental effects on mental health. We investigated whether economic hardship resulting from the late 2000s great recession is associated with long-term changes in mental health over 12.8 years of follow up.

Methods

We analysed data on 2,001 participants from the CASSIOPEA Study, a sub-cohort of the larger Moli-sani study (2005-2010, Italy), who were re-examined between 2017-2020 (mean age at baseline 53±9 y; 55% women). Economic hardship possibly experienced since participants' first visit was assessed retrospectively by a questionnaire scoring the following domains: 1) change in employment status; 2) financial hardship and 3) financial hardship for health expenditures. An Economic Hardship Score (EHS) was computed (range 0-14), with highest values indicating higher economic hardship. Mental health was reflected by measurements of depression (Patients' Health Questionnaire; PHQ-2; higher values indicating more depressive symptoms) and mental quality of life assessed by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (increased values indicating improved quality of life). In this analysis, the exposure was economic hardship and the outcomes were changes in depression and mental quality of life measured after a 12.8-y period. Multivariable linear regression analysis (95%CI) was used.

Results

Mean PHQ-2 and SF36 changes over 12.8 years were -0.08 (±1.28) and 0.47 (±9.90), respectively.

In a multivariable-adjusted analysis including duration of follow-up, relevant sociodemographic factors, lifestyles, clinical factors and related life course changes, 1-point increment in EHS was associated with increased depression (β = 0.041; 95%CI 0.022, 0.060) and lower mental quality of life (β=-0.037; 95%CI -0.052, -0.021).

Conclusions

Economic hardship resulting from the great recession in late 2000s was associated with a deterioration of mental health, as reflected by increased depression levels and reduced mental quality of life.

Key messages

Economic hardship resulting from the recession in late 2000s is associated with a deterioration of mental health. These findings support the notion that economic downturns may have detrimental effects on mental health and support the need for adequate strategies for more vulnerable groups.

Platelet Distribution Width Is Associated with P-Selectin Dependent Platelet Function: Results from the Moli-Family Cohort Study

Defined as an index of platelet size heterogeneity, the platelet distribution width (PDW) is still a poorly characterized marker of platelet function in (sub)clinical disease. We presently validated PDW as a marker of P-selectin dependent platelet activation in the Moli-family cohort. Platelet-bound P-selectin and platelet/leukocyte mixed aggregates were measured by flow cytometry in freshly collected venous blood, both before and after in vitro platelet activation, and coagulation time was assessed in unstimulated and LPS- or TNFα-stimulated whole blood. Closure Times (CT) were measured in a Platelet Function Analyzer (PFA)-100. Multivariable linear mixed effect regression models (with age, sex and platelet count as fixed and family structure as random effect) revealed PDW to be negatively associated with platelet P-selectin, platelet/leukocyte aggregates and von Willebrand factor (VWF), and positively with PFA-100 CT, and LPS- and TNF-α-stimulated coagulation times. With the exception of VWF, all relationships were sex-independent. In contrast, no association was found between mean platelet volume (MPV) and these variables. PDW seems a simple, useful marker of ex vivo and in vitro P-selectin dependent platelet activation. Investigations of larger cohorts will define the usefulness of PDW as a risk predictor of thrombo-inflammatory conditions where activated platelets play a contributing role.

Circulating Inflammation Markers Partly Explain the Link Between the Dietary Inflammatory Index and Depressive Symptoms

Background

Depression is a mood disorder characterized by a high rate of resistance to pharmacological treatments, which has often been linked to chronic inflammation. This can be influenced by different environmental factors, in particular pro-inflammatory diets. However, a mediating role of circulating inflammation has never been observed.

Aim

To test the association between a dietary inflammatory index (DII^®) and continuous depressive symptoms (adapted version of PHQ9) in an Italian population cohort (N=13,301), along with potential explanatory effect of a composite index (INFLA-score) based on four circulating inflammatory biomarkers: C-reactive protein, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet and white blood cell counts.

Results

Significant positive associations were observed between DII and total depressive symptoms (standardized β (SE) = 0.038 (0.005), p < 0.001), and with two factors tagging somatic (0.012 (0.003), p < 0.001) and cognitive symptoms (0.012 (0.003), p < 0.001), after adjustment for different potential confounders (socioeconomic status, chronic health conditions and lifestyles). These associations were about twice as strong in women than in men. INFLA-score explained a small but significant proportion of the association with total depressive symptoms (0.90–2.30%, p < 0.05), which was mainly driven by granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (1.18–1.65%). This effect was even stronger for the somatic (2.66–4.66%) but not for the cognitive factor (0%).

Conclusion

These findings support a strong link between inflammatory diet and depression, especially with somatic symptoms and within women. Moreover, they provide novel evidence for a potential explanatory role of circulating inflammation in this association, suggesting new paths for prevention and treatment of major and atypical depression.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Exome-wide association study of levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease

Levodopa is the standard long-term dopamine replacement therapy to treat Parkinson's disease (PD) symptoms. With time, levodopa may induce debilitating dyskinesias (LID), the treatment of which represents a large clinically unmet need. However, time-to-LID onset varies between patients, reflecting a possible genetic component. We performed an hypothesis-free whole-exome sequencing (WES)-based screening of time-to-LID onset and attempted replication of previously published candidate gene studies. A WES association analysis was carried out in 134 PD patients in a meta-analytical framework. Replication was attempted in an independent study of 97 PD patients. Variants from previously reported candidate genes (OPRM1, COMT, BDNF) were also specifically examined. We significantly replicated, for the first time, an association of variant rs1799971 in the OPRM1 gene with time-to-LID onset. Furthermore, we identified two novel potentially functional variants, in the MAD2L2 (rs2233019) and MAP7 (rs35350783) genes, which were significantly associated at the discovery stage. In the replication study, the two variants showed direction-consistent effects but did not achieve the replication significance threshold. Our study provides the first WES results for time-to-LID onset, where we replicate association at OPRM1, and suggest new variants in MAD2L2 and MAP7 genes that are significant in discovery, but require larger datasets for replication. The results are being made publicly available to allow for independent external validation.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

Lacosamide as first add-on or conversion monotherapy: A retrospective real-life study

PURPOSE

Lacosamide (LCM), the R-enantiomer of 2-acetamido-N-benzyl-3-methoxypropionamide, is a newer approved antiseizure medication characterized by a novel pharmacodynamic and favorable pharmacokinetic profile that was approved as adjunctive treatment for adults with focal onset and focal to bilateral tonic-clonic seizures in 2008, and recently also for monotherapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness and tolerability of LCM as first add-on or conversion monotherapy in adult subjects with focal epilepsy.

METHODS

We retrospectively included all adult patients who received LCM as first add-on regimen or as substitution monotherapy at least 12 months before starting the chart review, with a historical baseline of 6 months prior to day of the first administration of LCM. The choice of treatment was made independently by the epilepstologists, according to routine clinical practice. Clinical data were obtained at 3, 6, and 12 months after subjects started LCM and then analyzed to assess retention rate, seizure freedom, and adverse events (AE).

RESULTS

A total of 101 patients (58 men) with a mean age of 44 years and a median epilepsy duration of 6.6 years (range 1-53) were included in the study. At 12 months 72 patients retained LCM, 54 (75%) of them were seizure free, 44 (81.5%) in monotherapy and 10 (18.5%) in add-on LCM treatment. Among all subjects, 31 (57.4%) were free from seizure under LCM monotherapy throughout the entire observation period. Thirty one out of 72 (43%) PwE who retained LCM at 12 months, were free from seizures throughout the entire observation period. The maintenance median dosage of LCM was 200 mg/day. Ten (10%) subjects reported mild to moderate AE, most commonly drowsiness and dizziness. No serious AE were documented.

CONCLUSIONS

This real-life study confirms that LCM is an effective and well tolerated treatment option as first add-on or conversion monotherapy for focal seizures.

Exploring domains, clinical implications and environmental associations of a deep learning marker of biological ageing

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have been recently developed for the estimation of Biological Age (BA), the hypothetical underlying age of an organism, which can differ from its chronological age (CA). Although promising, these population-specific algorithms warrant further characterization and validation, since their biological, clinical and environmental correlates remain largely unexplored. Here, an accurate DNN was trained to compute BA based on 36 circulating biomarkers in an Italian population (N = 23,858; age ≥ 35 years; 51.7% women). This estimate was heavily influenced by markers of metabolic, heart, kidney and liver function. The resulting Δage (BA-CA) significantly predicted mortality and hospitalization risk for all and specific causes. Slowed biological aging (Δage < 0) was associated with higher physical and mental wellbeing, healthy lifestyles (e.g. adherence to Mediterranean diet) and higher socioeconomic status (educational attainment, household income and occupational status), while accelerated aging (Δage > 0) was associated with smoking and obesity. Together, lifestyles and socioeconomic variables explained ~48% of the total variance in Δage, potentially suggesting the existence of a genetic basis. These findings validate blood-based biological aging as a marker of public health in adult Italians and provide a robust body of knowledge on its biological architecture, clinical implications and potential environmental influences.

Identification of sixteen novel candidate genes for late onset Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative movement disorder affecting 1-5% of the general population for which neither effective cure nor early diagnostic tools are available that could tackle the pathology in the early phase. Here we report a multi-stage procedure to identify candidate genes likely involved in the etiopathogenesis of PD.

METHODS

The study includes a discovery stage based on the analysis of whole exome data from 26 dominant late onset PD families, a validation analysis performed on 1542 independent PD patients and 706 controls from different cohorts and the assessment of polygenic variants load in the Italian cohort (394 unrelated patients and 203 controls).

RESULTS

Family-based approach identified 28 disrupting variants in 26 candidate genes for PD including PARK2, PINK1, DJ-1(PARK7), LRRK2, HTRA2, FBXO7, EIF4G1, DNAJC6, DNAJC13, SNCAIP, AIMP2, CHMP1A, GIPC1, HMOX2, HSPA8, IMMT, KIF21B, KIF24, MAN2C1, RHOT2, SLC25A39, SPTBN1, TMEM175, TOMM22, TVP23A and ZSCAN21. Sixteen of them have not been associated to PD before, were expressed in mesencephalon and were involved in pathways potentially deregulated in PD. Mutation analysis in independent cohorts disclosed a significant excess of highly deleterious variants in cases (p = 0.0001), supporting their role in PD. Moreover, we demonstrated that the co-inheritance of multiple rare variants (≥ 2) in the 26 genes may predict PD occurrence in about 20% of patients, both familial and sporadic cases, with high specificity (> 93%; p = 4.4 × 10- 5). Moreover, our data highlight the fact that the genetic landmarks of late onset PD does not systematically differ between sporadic and familial forms, especially in the case of small nuclear families and underline the importance of rare variants in the genetics of sporadic PD. Furthermore, patients carrying multiple rare variants showed higher risk of manifesting dyskinesia induced by levodopa treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Besides confirming the extreme genetic heterogeneity of PD, these data provide novel insights into the genetic of the disease and may be relevant for its prediction, diagnosis and treatment.

Lopinavir/Ritonavir and Darunavir/Cobicistat in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: Findings From the Multicenter Italian CORIST Study

Background: Protease inhibitors have been considered as possible therapeutic agents for COVID-19 patients. Objectives: To describe the association between lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) or darunavir/cobicistat (DRV/c) use and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. Study Design: Multicenter observational study of COVID-19 patients admitted in 33 Italian hospitals. Medications, preexisting conditions, clinical measures, and outcomes were extracted from medical records. Patients were retrospectively divided in three groups, according to use of LPV/r, DRV/c or none of them. Primary outcome in a time-to event analysis was death. We used Cox proportional-hazards models with inverse probability of treatment weighting by multinomial propensity scores. Results: Out of 3,451 patients, 33.3% LPV/r and 13.9% received DRV/c. Patients receiving LPV/r or DRV/c were more likely younger, men, had higher C-reactive protein levels while less likely had hypertension, cardiovascular, pulmonary or kidney disease. After adjustment for propensity scores, LPV/r use was not associated with mortality (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.13), whereas treatment with DRV/c was associated with a higher death risk (HR = 1.89, 1.53 to 2.34, E-value = 2.43). This increased risk was more marked in women, in elderly, in patients with higher severity of COVID-19 and in patients receiving other COVID-19 drugs. Conclusions: In a large cohort of Italian patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in a real-life setting, the use of LPV/r treatment did not change death rate, while DRV/c was associated with increased mortality. Within the limits of an observational study, these data do not support the use of LPV/r or DRV/c in COVID-19 patients.

Abstract 025: Mediterranean Diet Trajectories And Changes In Cardiovascular Risk Factors And Inflammation Markers Over A 12.7 Years Follow-up: Prospective Findings From The Moli-sani Study Cohort

Introduction: Trends in diet quality worldwide indicate a progressive decline in adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD), but data on longitudinal individual-level changes are still limited, especially in Mediterranean countries.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis of an association, in a Mediterranean population, between life course trajectories in MD and concurrent long-term modifications of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inflammatory markers.

Methods: We followed 2,107 men and women (mean age at baseline 54.6±8.8 y) from the Moli-sani Study (Italy) between 2005 and 2020. Dietary data were measured at baseline and at a re-examination (after an average of 12.7 years) and were collected by a 188-item food frequency questionnaire. Adherence to MD was estimated by a Mediterranean diet score based on 9 food groups, ranging from 0 to 9 points. MD trajectories were identified as downward (-6 to -2 points in MDS), relatively stable (-1 to 0) and upward (1 to 6). Inflammation was measured by both an INFLA-score including C-reactive protein and cellular markers ( e.g ., leukocyte count) and a CYTO-score including 14 selected analytes (cytokines, chemokines and growth factors). Regression models were used to examine changes in MDS, CVD risk factors and inflammation markers within the same period.

Results: Overall, adherence to MD decreased by an average of 6.5% over follow-up. As opposed to the downward, an upward trajectory in MD adherence was inversely associated with the INFLA-score (β=-0.177; 95%CI -0.296, -0.058) and the CYTO-score (β=-0.311; 95%CI -0.548, -0.073). No significant changes were observed for CVD risk factors, with the exception of an increase in blood glucose (β=0.121; 95%CI 0.001, 0.241) and systolic blood pressure (β=0.110; 95%CI 0.003, 0.217) associated with an upward MD trajectory.

Conclusions: In a large sample of Mediterranean individuals, diet quality, as reflected by adherence to an MD, has been declining over the last decade. However, in the group of subjects who improved their adherence to an MD, a significant reduction of markers of an inflammatory status was documented, possibly predisposing to a better duration and quality of life.

Dietary Polyphenol Intake Is Associated with Biological Aging, a Novel Predictor of Cardiovascular Disease: Cross-Sectional Findings from the Moli-Sani Study

Biological aging, or the discrepancy between biological and chronological age of a subject (Δage), has been associated with a polyphenol-rich Mediterranean diet and represents a new, robust indicator of cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to disentangle the relationship of dietary polyphenols and total antioxidant capacity with Δage in a cohort of Italians. A cross-sectional analysis was performed on a sub-cohort of 4592 subjects (aged ≥ 35 y; 51.8% women) from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010). Food intake was recorded by a 188-item food-frequency questionnaire. The polyphenol antioxidant content (PAC)-score was constructed to assess the total dietary content of polyphenols. Total antioxidant capacity was measured in foods by these assays: trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC), total radical-trapping antioxidant parameter (TRAP) and ferric reducing-antioxidant power (FRAP). A deep neural network, based on 36 circulating biomarkers, was used to compute biological age and the resulting Δage, which was tested as outcome in multivariable-adjusted linear regressions. Δage was inversely associated with the PAC-score (β = -0.31; 95%CI -0.39, -0.24) but not with total antioxidant capacity of the diet. A diet rich in polyphenols, by positively contributing to deceleration of the biological aging process, may exert beneficial effects on the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and possibly of bone health.

Analysis of Genetic and Non-genetic Predictors of Levodopa Induced Dyskinesia in Parkinson's Disease

Background: Levodopa (L-Dopa), representing the therapeutic gold standard for the treatment of Parkinson disease (PD), is associated with side effects like L-Dopa induced dyskinesia (LID). Although several non-genetic and genetic factors have been investigated for association with LID risk, contrasting results were reported and its genetic basis remain largely unexplored.

Methods: In an Italian PD cohort (N = 460), we first performed stepwise multivariable Cox Proportional Hazard regressions modeling LID risk as a function of gender, PD familiarity, clinical subtype, weight, age-at-onset (AAO) and years-of-disease (YOD), L-Dopa dosage, severity scores, and scales assessing motor (UPDRS-III), cognitive (MoCA), and non-motor symptoms (NMS). Then we enriched the resulting model testing two variants—rs356219 and D4S3481—increasing the expression of the SNCA gene, previously suggested as a potential mechanism of LID onset. To account for more complex (non-linear) relations of these variables with LID risk, we built a survival random forest (SRF) algorithm including all the covariates mentioned above.

Results: Among tested variables (N = 460 case-complete, 211 LID events; total follow-up 31,361 person-months, median 61 months), disease duration showed significant association (p < 0.005), with 6 (3–8)% decrease of LID risk per additional YOD. Other nominally significant associations were observed for gender—with women showing a 39 (5–82)% higher risk of LID—and AAO, with 2 (0.3–3)% decrease of risk for each year increase of PD onset. The SRF algorithm confirmed YOD as the most prominent feature influencing LID risk, with a variable importance of about 8% in the model. In genetic models, no statistically significant effects on incident LID risk was observed.

Conclusions: This evidence supports a protective effect of late PD onset and gender (men) against LID risk and suggests a new independent protective factor, YOD. Moreover, it underlines the importance of personalized therapeutic protocols for PD patients in the future.

Precision Medicine and Public Health: New Challenges for Effective and Sustainable Health

The development of high-throughput omics technologies represents an unmissable opportunity for evidence-based prevention of adverse effects on human health. However, the applicability and access to multi-omics tests are limited. In Italy, this is due to the rapid increase of knowledge and the high levels of skill and economic investment initially necessary. The fields of human genetics and public health have highlighted the relevance of an implementation strategy at a national level in Italy, including integration in sanitary regulations and governance instruments. In this review, the emerging field of public health genomics is discussed, including the polygenic scores approach, epigenetic modulation, nutrigenomics, and microbiomes implications. Moreover, the Italian state of implementation is presented. The omics sciences have important implications for the prevention of both communicable and noncommunicable diseases, especially because they can be used to assess the health status during the whole course of life. An effective population health gain is possible if omics tools are implemented for each person after a preliminary assessment of effectiveness in the medium to long term.

Novel autophagic vacuolar myopathies: Phenotype and genotype features

BACKGROUND

Autophagic vacuolar myopathies (AVMs) are an emerging group of heterogeneous myopathies sharing histopathological features on muscle pathology, in which autophagic vacuoles are the pathognomonic morphologic hallmarks. Glycogen storage disease type II (GSDII) caused by lysosomal acid α-glucosidase (GAA) deficiency is the best-characterised AVM.

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the mutational profiling of seven neuromuscular outpatients sharing clinical, myopathological and biochemical findings with AVMs.

METHODS

We applied a diagnostic protocol, recently published by our research group for suspected late-onset GSDII (LO-GSDII), including counting PAS-positive lymphocytes on blood smears, dried blood spot (DBS)-GAA, muscle biopsy histological and immunofluorescence studies, GAA activity assay and expression studies on muscle homogenate, GAA sequencing, GAA multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) and whole exome sequencing (WES).

RESULTS

The patients had a limb girdle-like muscular pattern with persistent hyperCKaemia; vacuolated PAS-positive lymphocytes, glycogen accumulation and impaired autophagy at muscle biopsy. Decreased GAA activity was also measured. While GAA sequencing identified no pathogenic mutations, WES approach allowed us to identify for each patient an unexpected mutational pattern in genes cooperating in lysosomal-autophagic machinery, some of which have never been linked to human diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that reduced GAA activity may occur in any condition of impaired autophagy and that WES approach is advisable in all genetically undefined cases of autophagic myopathy. Therefore, deficiency of GAA activity and PAS-positive lymphocytes should be considered as AVM markers together with LC3/p62-positive autophagic vacuoles.

Combined influence of depression severity and low-grade inflammation on incident hospitalization and mortality risk in Italian adults

BACKGROUND

Depression and low-grade systemic inflammation are associated risk factors for hospitalizations and mortality, although the nature of this relationship is under-investigated.

METHODS

We performed multivariable Cox regressions of first hospitalization/mortality for all and specific causes vs depression severity, in an Italian population cohort (N=13,176; age≥35 years; 49.4% men), incrementally adjusting for sociodemographic, health and lifestyle factors. We tested potential mediation, additive and interactive effects of INFLA-score, a composite circulating inflammation index, and potential concurrent mediations of main lifestyles and chronic conditions.

RESULTS

Over 4,856 hospitalizations (median follow-up 7.28 years), we observed an increased incident risk of events by 24% (CI=17-32%) and 59% (30-90%) for moderate and severe depression, which also showed a 125% (33-281%) increased risk of all-cause mortality (over 471 deaths, 8.24 years). These remained stable after adjustment for lifestyles, health conditions and INFLA-score, which explained 2.1%, 7.6%, 16.3% and 8%, 14.9% and 12% of depression influence on hospitalizations and mortality risk, respectively. These proportions remained substantially stable after reciprocal adjustments. INFLA-score showed significant additive (but not interactive) effects on both hospitalizations and mortality risk.

LIMITATIONS

Depression severity was defined using a sub-version of Patient Health Questionnaire 9, which was validated here. Directionality links among exposures could not be established since they were collected simultaneously.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest a combined influence of depression and low-grade inflammation on health, which is partly intertwined and dependent on lifestyles and chronic conditions. This suggests the existence of pathways other than inflammation through which depression may play its detrimental effect.

NMU DNA methylation in blood is associated with metabolic and inflammatory indices: results from the Moli-sani study

Neuromedin U (NMU) is a neuropeptide involved in gut-brain axis, energy balance and immune response. We aimed at analysing the association between NMU epigenetic variability and metabolic indices and the potential mediating role of low-grade inflammation in a general population of Italian adults.NMU Blood DNA methylation levels at two CpG islands (NMU76 and NMU32) were analysed using pyrosequencing in a randomly selected sub-cohort of 1,160 subjects from the Moli-sani study (≥35years; 49.20% men). Multivariable regressions adjusted for age, sex, smoking, alcohol and vegetable consumption were performed to estimate the associations between methylation and metabolic phenotypes (BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure, glucose, HOMA-IR, lipids, lipoprotein(a) and apolipoproteins). Mediation analysis was performed to identify the influence of low-grade inflammation in the association using a composite index based on C reactive protein, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR), platelet and white blood cell counts (INFLA-score).Using principal component analysis four methylation factors were identified: NMU76-F1, NMU76-F2, NMU32-F1 and NMU32-F2. NMU76-F1 was FDR significantly associated with total cholesterol (for 1 SD increase: β = 4.5 ± 1.4 mg/dL of, R² = 10.8%, p = 0.001), ApoB (0.03 ± 0.01 g/L, 12.2%, p = 0.0004), with INFLA-score (1.05 ± 0.22, p = 2.7E-6) and GLR (-0.27 ± 0.03, 30.4%, p = 1.3E-20). GLR and lymphocyte numbers mediate the association of NMU76-F1 with cholesterol (24.0% of total effect, Sobel p = 0.013) and ApoB (42.6%, p = 9E-7), respectively.These findings suggest that NMU promoter methylation patterns could mark a pathway linking lipids with haematopoiesis and systemic inflammation.

Common cardiovascular risk factors and in-hospital mortality in 3,894 patients with COVID-19: survival analysis and machine learning-based findings from the multicentre Italian CORIST Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is poor knowledge on characteristics, comorbidities and laboratory measures associated with risk for adverse outcomes and in-hospital mortality in European Countries. We aimed at identifying baseline characteristics predisposing COVID-19 patients to in-hospital death.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Retrospective observational study on 3894 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalized from February 19th to May 23rd, 2020 and recruited in 30 clinical centres distributed throughout Italy. Machine learning (random forest)-based and Cox survival analysis. 61.7% of participants were men (median age 67 years), followed up for a median of 13 days. In-hospital mortality exhibited a geographical gradient, Northern Italian regions featuring more than twofold higher death rates as compared to Central/Southern areas (15.6% vs 6.4%, respectively). Machine learning analysis revealed that the most important features in death classification were impaired renal function, elevated C reactive protein and advanced age. These findings were confirmed by multivariable Cox survival analysis (hazard ratio (HR): 8.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.6-14.7 for age ≥85 vs 18-44 y); HR = 4.7; 2.9-7.7 for estimated glomerular filtration rate levels <15 vs ≥ 90 mL/min/1.73 m2; HR = 2.3; 1.5-3.6 for C-reactive protein levels ≥10 vs ≤ 3 mg/L). No relation was found with obesity, tobacco use, cardiovascular disease and related-comorbidities. The associations between these variables and mortality were substantially homogenous across all sub-groups analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired renal function, elevated C-reactive protein and advanced age were major predictors of in-hospital death in a large cohort of unselected patients with COVID-19, admitted to 30 different clinical centres all over Italy.

Assessing Genetic Overlap Between Platelet Parameters and Neurodegenerative Disorders

Neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) suffer from the lack of risk-predictive circulating biomarkers, and clinical diagnosis occurs only when symptoms are evident. Among potential biomarkers, platelet parameters have been associated with both disorders. However, these associations have been scarcely investigated at the genetic level. Here, we tested genome-wide coheritability based on common genetic variants between platelet parameters and PD/AD risk, through Linkage Disequilibrium Score Regression. This revealed a significant genetic correlation between platelet distribution width (PDW), an index of platelet size variability, and PD risk (r_g [SE] = 0.080 [0.034]; p = 0.019), which was confirmed by a summary-summary polygenic score analysis, where PDW explained a small but significant proportion PD risk (<1%). AD risk showed no significant correlations, although a negative trend was observed with PDW (rg [SE] =-0.088 [0.053]; p=0.096), in line with previous epidemiological reports. These findings suggest the existence of limited shared genetic bases between PDW and PD and warrant further investigations to clarify the genes involved in this relation. Additionally, they suggest that the association between platelet parameters and AD risk is more environmental in nature, prompting an investigation into which factors may influence these traits.