Cohort profile: the PERSIAN Dena Cohort Study (PDCS) of non-communicable diseases in Southwest Iran

PURPOSE

This study conducted in Dena County is a population-based cohort study as part of the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in Iran (PERSIAN). The specific objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of region-specific modifiable risk factors and their associations with the incidence of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

PARTICIPANTS

This PERSIAN Dena Cohort Study (PDCS) was conducted on 1561 men and 2069 women aged 35-70 years from October 2016 in Dena County, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Southwest Iran. The overall participation rate was 82.7%.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Out of 3630 participants, the mean age was 50.16 years, 2069 (56.9%) were women and 2092 (57.6%) were rural residents. Females exhibited higher prevalence rates of diabetes, hypertension, fatty liver, psychiatric disorders, thyroiditis, kidney stones, gallstones, rheumatic disease, chronic lung disease, depression and osteoporosis compared with males (p<0.05). Furthermore, the urban population showed elevated rates of diabetes, thyroiditis, kidney stones and epilepsy, whereas psychiatric disorders and lupus were more prevalent in rural areas (p<0.05). According to laboratory findings, 418 (13.0%), 1536 (48.1%) and 626 (19.3%) of the participants had fasting blood sugar >126 mg/dL, low-density lipoprotein >100 mg/dL and haematuria, respectively; most of them were female and urban people (p<0.05).

FUTURE PLANS

PDCS will be planned to re-evaluate NCD-related incidence, all-cause and cause-specific mortality every 5 years, along with annual follow-up for 15 years. Some examples of additional planned studies are evaluation of genetic, environmental risk, spirometry and ECG tests.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Prevalence and patterns of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis following vestibular schwannoma surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) is a potentially serious complication following surgical treatment of vestibular schwannoma, a benign tumor originating from Schwann cells of the vestibulocochlear nerve. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of CVST following surgical treatment of vestibular schwannoma and the factors contributing to its occurrence.

METHOD

Two independent researchers searched the global databases of PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library up to September 01, 2023. We employed a random-effects model for data analysis. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 test. To assess the quality of the studies meeting our inclusion criteria, we employed the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist.

RESULTS

We included 23 articles in this meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of CVST after vestibular schwannoma surgery was 6.4% (95%CI 3.4-11.5%). The pooled prevalence of CVST following the retrosigmoid (RS), translabyrinthine (TL), and middle cranial fossa (MCF) approaches was 4.8% (95%CI 2.0-11.0%), 9.6% (95%CI 4.3-20.3%) and 9.9% (95%CI 1.6-42.2%), respectively, revealing a significant difference between the TL and the RS approaches (Odds ratio = 2.10, 95%CI 1.45-3.04, P < 0.001). The sigmoid sinus exhibited the highest post-operative thrombosis rate (7.9%), surpassing the transverse sinus (3.7%) and involvement of both sigmoid and transverse sinuses (1.6%), respectively. No significant associations were found with demographic or surgical factors.

CONCLUSION

In the current meta-analysis, we identified a 6.4% CVST prevalence following vestibular schwannoma surgery, with varying rates depending on the surgical approach. No significant associations with patient or surgical factors were found, emphasizing the need for heightened clinical vigilance and further research in this context.

TRAIL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID: CRD42023453513.

The frequency of colorectal lesions in the first-degree relatives of patients with colorectal lesions among PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study population (PGCS)

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the frequency of colorectal lesions in the first-degree relatives of patients with colorectal lesions among the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in Iran (PERSIAN )Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS) population.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 162 first-degree relatives with a history of colorectal lesions were randomly selected from 52 participants in PGCS. All subjects underwent total colonoscopy by a gastroenterologist, and a pathologist evaluated colorectal biopsies. Also, individuals' demographic information, clinical data, and dietary habits were recorded.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 56.55 ± 7.04. Of 86 colon polyps, 52 neoplastic and 34 non-neoplastic polyps were observed in 56 patients (34.6%). Individuals with age > 60 years had 3.29-fold increased odds of developing colorectal polyps (OR = 3.29, 95% CI: 1.13-9.56, P = 0.029). The smokers were 2.73 times more susceptible to developing colorectal polyps than non-smokers (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.24-6.02, P = 0.013). Moreover, consumption of vegetables more than three times per day was associated with decreased OR of colorectal polyp development (OR = 0.43, CI: 0.19-0.98, P = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the high prevalence of neoplastic colorectal polyps among the first-degree relatives of patients with colorectal lesions, early screening is recommended for individuals with a family history of colorectal lesions.

Prevalence and associated factors for asymptomatic microscopic hematuria in adults in the PERSIAN Guilan cohort study (PGCS)

Although hematuria is not life-threatening, some could be the result of a more severe condition. Our objectives are to report on the prevalence and risk factors of asymptomatic microscopic hematuria (AMH) in the prospective epidemiological research studies of the Iranian adults (PERSIAN) Guilan cohort study (PGCS) population. This cross-sectional study was conducted from 2014 to 2017 and consisted of 10,520 individuals aged 35-70. Data collection was conducted using a questionnaire during a face-to-face interview. The urine analyses (UA) were done up to 2 h after sample collection. Based on a urine microscopy evaluation, AMH is defined as 3 or more red blood cells per high power field (HPF). Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore factors associated with AMH. The prevalence of AMH in this study was 34.1% and was more prevalent in participants of older ages and female gender as well as those with low educational level, underweight-body mass index (BMI), high physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, and kidney stone disease. On the other hand, obesity, opium, and diabetes decreased the likelihood of AMH. The results of the present study shed light on the prevalence and risk factors of AMH and suggested that a significant portion of the study population is affected by AMH. Considering the lack of consensus on a definite clinical guideline for AMH in our country, the results of the present study could be used to design a unit algorithm for screening and therapy of AMH.

Alzheimer's disease and microorganisms: the non-coding RNAs crosstalk

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex, multifactorial disorder, influenced by a multitude of variables ranging from genetic factors, age, and head injuries to vascular diseases, infections, and various other environmental and demographic determinants. Among the environmental factors, the role of the microbiome in the genesis of neurodegenerative disorders (NDs) is gaining increased recognition. This paradigm shift is substantiated by an extensive body of scientific literature, which underscores the significant contributions of microorganisms, encompassing viruses and gut-derived bacteria, to the pathogenesis of AD. The mechanism by which microbial infection exerts its influence on AD hinges primarily on inflammation. Neuroinflammation, activated in response to microbial infections, acts as a defense mechanism for the brain but can inadvertently lead to unexpected neuropathological perturbations, ultimately contributing to NDs. Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the genetic factors underpinning ND, comprehensive investigations into environmental factors, particularly the microbiome and viral agents, are imperative. Recent advances in neuroscientific research have unveiled the pivotal role of non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) in orchestrating various pathways integral to neurodegenerative pathologies. While the upstream regulators governing the pathological manifestations of microorganisms remain elusive, an in-depth exploration of the nuanced role of ncRNAs holds promise for the development of prospective therapeutic interventions. This review aims to elucidate the pivotal role of ncRNAs as master modulators in the realm of neurodegenerative conditions, with a specific focus on Alzheimer's disease.

The association between the volume of the gallbladder based on sonographic findings and demographical data in the PERSIAN Guilan cohort study (PGCS)

BACKGROUND

Ultrasound is an important method to determine the volume of the gallbladder and check its structure. Considering the variation in the size and volume of the gallbladder in disease and physiological conditions, determining the volume of the gallbladder is clinically valuable. This study was carried out to evaluate the gallbladder volume and its association with patients' demographic data in the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies of Iranian Adults (PERSIAN) Guilan cohort study (PGCS) population.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 957 individuals aged 35-70 participated in determining the gallbladder volume by a radiologist based on the ultrasound method. The demographical data were collected using a questionnaire. After fasting for 12 h, the ultrasound was performed with an Ultrasonic device (Sonix SP series) with a 3.5 to 5 MHz probe.

RESULTS

The total frequency of gallbladder lesions was 2.2%. The results showed a significant association between marriage and gender with the presence or absence of lesions in the studied participants (P < 0.05). Also, significant differences were reported between the volume of gallbladder and gender, body mass index (BMI), social and economic status (SES), metabolic equivalent of task (MET), history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and hypertension (P < 0.05). The results of a linear regression represented a significant association between gender, BMI, MET, and CVD and the mean volume of the gallbladder (P < 0.05). However, there was no significant association between the presence or absence of a lesion and the individuals' average gallbladder volume (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

According to our results, gender, BMI, MET, and CVD were significantly associated with gallbladder volume.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Family history of cancer as a potential risk factor for colorectal cancer in EMRO countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The current meta-analysis aims to investigate the existing articles that evaluated the implications of a positive family history of cancer on the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) within the EMRO countries. We employed PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science as search databases for this study. To assess the quality of the selected articles, we utilized the Newcastle-Ottawa (NCO) checklist. In comparing the impact of a family history of cancer between the case and control groups, we computed the odds ratio (OR) along with its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Finally, 27 articles were selected for meta-analysis. The result of the meta-analysis showed a significant association between the presence of a family history of CRC or any cancers and CRC (OR 2.21; 95% CI 1.54-3.17; P < 0.001, OR 1.76; 95% CI 1.27-2.42; P = 0.001, respectively). Our findings underscore the critical importance of timely screening and early identification for individuals with a family history of cancer. By fostering close coordination among healthcare facilities and actively promoting the adoption of screening methods for early detection, we have the potential to significantly reduce both mortality rates and financial burdens of CRC on the general public, ultimately leading to enhanced patient outcomes.

The effectiveness of walking exercise on the bowel preparation before colonoscopy: a single blind randomized clinical trial study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Bowel preparation is a crucial factor affecting the diagnostic accuracy of colonoscopy, and few randomized control trials evaluated enhancement in bowel preparation. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of walking exercises on bowel preparation before a colonoscopy procedure.

METHODS

The present study is a single-blind randomized controlled trial involving 262 patients scheduled for colonoscopy procedures. These patients were randomly assigned to two groups: an intervention group (n = 131) and a control group (n = 131). In the intervention group, participants followed a predetermined plan that included the consumption of specific liquids and foods, bisacodyl pills, polyethylene glycol powder, and a regimen of walking exercises in preparation for their colonoscopy. Conversely, individuals in the control group followed the same regimen but were not instructed to engage in walking exercises. On the day of the colonoscopy, both groups were assessed for their level of physical activity using a foot counter. Additionally, an experienced gastroenterologist evaluated and compared the bowel preparation between the two groups using the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale (BBPS).

RESULTS

The number of footsteps recorded in the two groups exhibited a significant difference (P < 0.001). Although there was no statistically significant difference between the intervention and control groups in terms of mean BBPS scores (6.26 ± 1.9 vs. 6.29 ± 1.9, P = 0.416), individuals who took more than 6900 steps had significantly higher BBPS scores compared to those with fewer than 6900 footsteps (6.62 ± 1.8 vs. 5.92 ± 1.9, P = 0.003).In the univariate analysis, BBPS was found to be significantly associated with individuals under the age of 50 (OR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.30-4.61, P = 0.006) and smoking status (OR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.17-0.94, P = 0.043). In the multivariate analysis, the relationship between BBPS and age below 50 and smoking remained significant (OR: 2.50, 95% CI: 1.30-4.70, P = 0.005, and OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.16-0.93, P = 0.034, respectively).

CONCLUSION

A higher number of footsteps taken especially more than 6900 can significantly enhance bowel preparation; however, walking exercise as an intervention before colonoscopy is not significantly associated with BBPS. Also, older people and smokers seem to have fewer benefits from walking exercises for bowel preparation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN32724024 (Registration date:22/08/2018).

Unusual herpetic reactivation in a young female following botox injection: a case report study

BACKGROUND

Botox injections are commonly used for cosmetic and therapeutic purposes because they temporarily paralyze muscles, reduce wrinkles, and alleviate certain medical conditions. Although generally considered safe and effective, Botox injections may cause potential complications. While herpes reactivation is more commonly associated with immunosuppressive therapies, such as chemotherapy or corticosteroid use, its association with Botox injection is poorly documented.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 33-year-old woman presented with progressive painful rashes and vesicles on her forehead, scalp, and right upper eyelid, accompanied by fever and malaise following a Botox injection to treat wrinkles. A positive Tzanck smear test result confirmed the diagnosis of herpes infection. The patient was treated with antiviral medication, and her symptoms gradually regressed over several days.

CONCLUSIONS

Although herpes reactivation is more commonly associated with immunosuppressive therapies, few cases of herpes zoster and herpes simplex following Botox injection have been reported. The pathogenesis of herpes reactivation following Botox injection is unclear; however, it has been hypothesized that the Botox protein is a potent antigen that may activate the cellular immune system, making it easier for the virus to reactivate. Healthcare providers should be aware of this potential complication and consider it when evaluating patients who present with painful rashes following Botox injections. In addition, individuals who want to receive Botox injections should be informed of this complication. The diagnosis of herpetic infection should be made promptly, and antiviral therapy should be initiated to minimize the risk of complications. Further research is needed to better understand the pathogenesis and risk factors for herpes following Botox injection and to develop strategies for preventing and managing this complication.

The impact of gut microbiome-targeted therapy on liver enzymes in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: an umbrella meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. To date, no confirmed medication is available for the treatment of NAFLD. Previous studies showed the promising effects of gut microbiome-targeted therapies; however, the results were controversial and the strength of the evidence and their clinical significance remained unclear.

OBJECTIVES

This umbrella study summarizes the results of meta-analyses investigating the effects of probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics on liver enzymes in the NAFLD population.

DATA SOURCE

A comprehensive search of the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases was done up to December 20, 2022, to find meta-analyses on randomized control trials reporting the effects of gut microbial therapy on patients with NAFLD.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two independent investigators extracted data on the characteristics of meta-analyses, and any discrepancies were resolved by a third researcher. The AMSTAR2 checklist was used for evaluating the quality of studies.

DATA ANALYSIS

A final total of 15 studies were included in the analysis. Results showed that microbiome-targeted therapies could significantly reduce levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT; effect size [ES], -10.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], -13.29, -7.14; P < 0.001), aspartate aminotransferase (AST; ES, -8.86; 95%CI, -11.39, -6.32; P < 0.001), and γ-glutamyltransferase (ES, -5.56; 95%CI, -7.92, -3.31; P < 0.001) in patients with NAFLD. Results of subgroup analysis based on intervention showed probiotics could significantly reduce levels of AST (ES, -8.69; 95%CI, -11.01, -6.37; P < 0.001) and ALT (ES, -9.82; 95%CI, -11.59, -8.05; P < 0.001). Synbiotics could significantly reduce levels of AST (ES, -11.40; 95%CI, -13.91, -8.88; P < 0.001) and ALT (ES, -11.87; 95%CI, -13.80, -9.95; P < 0.001). Prebiotics had no significant effects on AST and ALT levels (ES, -2.96; 95%CI, -8.12, 2.18, P = 0.259; and ES, -4.69; 95%CI, -13.53, 4.15, P = 0.299, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Gut microbiome-targeted therapies could be a promising therapeutic approach in the improvement of hepatic damage in patients with NAFLD. However, more studies are needed to better determine the best bacterial strains, duration of treatment, and optimum dosage of gut microbiome-targeted therapies in the treatment of the NAFLD population.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42022346998.

The Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Iranian Children and Adult Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the world's most common etiology of chronic liver disease. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we estimated the prevalence of NAFLD in the Iranian children and adult population.

Methods

A comprehensive search of five international databases, including PubMed, ISI/WOS, ProQuest, Scopus, and Google Scholar, was done from inception to Nov 2022. Studies on NAFLD patients and their risk factors were selected for meta-analysis. The quality of the included studies was assessed by The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal Checklist for cross-sectional, and cohort studies. The heterogeneity between studies was investigated using Cochran test and I2 statistics. Random and fixed effect models were used for heterogenic and non-heterogenic studies, respectively. We used Comprehensive Meta-Analysis version 3 for conducting meta-analysis.

Results

Twenty studies were finally included. The total prevalence of NAFLD in children, boys, and girls was 6.7% (95% CI: 0.02-0.18), 12.5% (95% CI: 0.04-0.29) and, 10.1% (95% CI: 0.04-0.21), respectively. The total prevalence of NAFLD in obese children, obese boys, and obese girls was 42% (95% CI: 0.18-0.69), 44% (95% CI: 0.13-0.80), and 33 % (95% CI: 0.13-0.62), respectively. The total prevalence of NAFLD in adults was 36.9% (95% CI: 0.31-0.42). The prevalence of NAFLD in men and women was 33.8% (95% CI: 0.27-0.41) and 29.9% (95% CI: 0.21-0.40), respectively.

Conclusion

NAFLD prevalence in Iranian adults and obese children is considerable; however, data about the children population was insufficient.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between smoking and colorectal cancer in Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO): A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Smoking poses a significant risk for colorectal cancer (CRC), considered the third leading reason for cancer-related deaths worldwide. However, there has been limited research on the relationship between smoking and CRC in the Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO). Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted to combine available data and gain a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between smoking and CRC in EMRO.

Methods

Two independent researchers searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science until December 2022. The included studies were checked for risk of bias administering the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Heterogeneity was evaluated using I2 statistics and the Cochrane test. Publication bias was determined through funnel plot analysis and Egger's regression test. Additionally, a meta-regression analysis explored the impact of a country's Human Development Index (HDI) on the relationship between smoking and CRC.

Results

The final analysis included 26 studies, revealing a significant association between smoking and CRC (OR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.11 - 1.78; P = 0.004). Moreover, smoking had a more pronounced adverse effect on CRC in countries with higher HDIs compared to those with lower HDIs (OR = 1.30; 95% CI: 0.99 - 1.71; P = 0.054).

Conclusions

Our findings underscore the importance of implementing smoking cessation programs and policies in EMRO countries, as they demonstrate a positive relationship between smoking and the risk of CRC. Furthermore, the results suggest that a country's level of human development may influence the association between smoking and CRC. Further research is needed to investigate this potential connection and develop targeted public health interventions.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Detection of high risk people for diabetes by American diabetes association risk score in PERSIAN Guilan cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is known as one of the most prevalent non communicable diseases with high cost of health services in the world. Present study was conducted to assess the frequency of high risk people for diabetes mellitus based on American Diabetes Association (ADA) risk score among Iranian people.

METHODS

Present study was a cross sectional study on non-diabetic subjects aged 35-70 years from 10,520 PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS). ADA risk score was calculated for every individual through an online calculator. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was used to assess diagnostic accuracy of the anthropometric indices to identify individuals with high risk ADA score for developing DM, represented by the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

From 7989 study subjects, ADA risk score found 3874 (48.5%) and 1912 (23%) at risk for developing PreDM and DM, respectively. The results of ROC curve analyses showed the highest diagnostic value was related to waist circumference (WC) in total population and Waist to Height Ratio in both sex (0.695 total, 0.743 female, 0.744 male). The cut-points of WC in total population to identifying high risk group were 97 cm.

CONCLUSIONS

A considerable number of populations were classified as high ADA risk for developing DM and PreDM that provide the importance of prevention strategies. Present study showed WC and Waist to Height Ratio have the highest diagnostic value to identify high risk people for DM.

Prevalence of Tinnitus and Its Associated Factors in the PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study

Introduction

Tinnitus can be associated with many auditory and non-auditory factors, and its prevalence varies widely in the literature. There is no large sample of published data on tinnitus prevalence and its associated factors in Iran. Here, we analyzed the PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS) data and reported the prevalence of tinnitus and some of the risk factors related to tinnitus in the Iranian population.

Materials and Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted on 10520 men and women between 35 and 70 years old. The prevalence of tinnitus and associations between tinnitus and age, sex, habitat, marital status, employment status, socioeconomic status, educational level, lifestyle habits, and comorbid diseases were examined using simple and multiple logistic regression analyses.

Results

The prevalence of tinnitus was 6.4% in this study. Based on the adjusted analysis, only older age (odds ratio: 2.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.88 - 3.60), residency in a rural area (odds ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.03 - 1.44), cigarette smoking (odds ratio:1.33, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 - 1.72), and having other comorbidities (odds ratio: 2.75, 95% confidence interval: 2.19 - 3.44) were related to tinnitus. In addition, the results of subgroup analyses by sex were mostly consistent with the overall analysis.

Conclusions

Our results revealed that the prevalence of tinnitus in the north of Iran is comparable with other communities. Age and other comorbidities were among the most related factors to tinnitus.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Gender-related differences in the association of serum levels of vitamin D with body mass index in northern Iranian population: the PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D (VD) insufficiency has now become a global problem throughout the world. The association between increasing body mass index (BMI) and VD insufficiency has attracted great attention in recent researches. The aim was to study if BMI was independently associated with serum 25-hydroxy VD in a large population-based study, specify by gender.

METHODS

Data on 9520 adults 35 years and older participating in PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS) were used. Serum levels of 25-hydroxy VD less than 20 ng/mL (50 nmol/L) was used as a measure of VD inadequacy. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were used to estimate the strength of the association between VD and BMI before and after adjusting for demographic factors and lifestyle variables.

RESULTS

After adjustment in male population, overweight (adjusted OR = 1.2, P < 0.05) and obese (adjusted OR = 1.4, P > 0.05) individuals were more likely to have VD inadequacy than normal weight counterparts. Moreover, there was a weak inverse linear association between BMI and serum 25 (OH) D levels in males (β = -0.14, P value > 0.05). In contrast, no significant associations between BMI and serum 25 (OH (D levels were observed in females. In male population, higher BMI were associated with lower serum vitamin 25 (OH) D levels.

CONCLUSIONS

However, association between BMI and VD level was not observed in female population. The suggestion of current study for public health was special consideration to serum VD levels in over weight and obese males.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epidemiologic Profile of Microscopic Hematuria in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Hematuria is one of the most common symptoms in nephrology and urology. Due to the lack of extensive meta-analysis studies on the epidemiology of hematuria in Iran, this study was conducted to determine the epidemiological status of hematuria in Iran. Methods: In Sep 2020, researchers studied six international databases such as PubMed, ISI/WOS, ProQuest, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for English papers and Iranian databases (SID and MagIran) for Persian papers. Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) checklist was used to review and control the quality of articles. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed by Cochran's test and its composition using I2 statistics. Results: After several screening phase, the number of 25 article included to the final analysis. The prevalence of hematuria in the general population and children, in Iran were estimated at 16.4% (95% CI, - 0.05-37.9) and 1.6% (95% CI, 0.9-2.3) respectively. The odds ratio (OR) of women to men in the prevalence of hematuria in the general population 1.74, 95% CI: 1.20-2.52, P=0.003, patients with beta-thalassemia major 2.02, 95% CI: 1.11-3.65, P=0.020, children 2.61, 95% CI: 1.19-5.71, P=0.016, the elderly 1.50, 95% CI: 1.15-1.94, P=0.002, and taxi drivers 3.73, 95% CI: 2.58-5.38, P<0.001 was obtained. Conclusion: The prevalence of hematuria in the general population is relatively high. Hematuria is a good predictor for detecting of bladder cancer and Idiopathic hypercalciuria and the physician should attention to microscopic hematuria.

Major Dietary Patterns in Association with the Grades of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Newly Diagnosed Patients Living in North of Iran

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that dietary pattern is related to incidence and grades of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between major dietary patterns and hepatic histologic features of newly diagnosed patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 260 newly diagnosed NAFLD patients. Hepatic fibrosis and steatosis were diagnosed using Fibroscan. Dietary information was obtained using a validated 168-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. The association between dietary patterns and odds ratio of the grade of fibrosis and steatosis was examined by multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD age participant was 46.53 ± 11.71 years. Fifty-seven percent of the participants were women. Two major dietary patterns were recognized: "Western dietary pattern" and "Mediterranean dietary pattern." After adjustment for various confounders, adherence to the two extracted dietary patterns was not associated with odds of fibrosis and steatosis (P > 0.05). However, P was not significant. Patients in the second quartile of the Mediterranean dietary pattern had a higher risk for being in the F1 grade compared to those in the reference group in the crude and adjusted model.

CONCLUSIONS

The major dietary patterns of NAFLD patients living in Gilan were not related to the severity of their disease. More precise study design such as cohort or interventional studies is suggested to reveal the strength of this study findings.

Gut bacteria, bacteriophages, and probiotics: Tripartite mutualism to quench the SARS-CoV2 storm

Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, exhibit various clinical manifestations and severity including respiratory and enteric involvements. One of the main reasons for death among covid-19 patients is excessive immune responses directed toward cytokine storm with a low chance of recovery. Since the balanced gut microbiota could prepare health benefits by protecting against pathogens and regulating immune homeostasis, dysbiosis or disruption of gut microbiota could promote severe complications including autoimmune disorders; we surveyed the association between the imbalanced gut bacteria and the development of cytokine storm among COVID-19 patients, also the impact of probiotics and bacteriophages on the gut bacteria community to alleviate cytokine storm in COVID-19 patients. In present review, we will scrutinize the mechanism of immunological signaling pathways which may trigger a cytokine storm in SARS-CoV2 infections. Moreover, we are explaining in detail the possible immunological signaling pathway-directing by the gut bacterial community. Consequently, the specific manipulation of gut bacteria by using probiotics and bacteriophages for alleviation of the cytokine storm will be investigated. The tripartite mutualistic cooperation of gut bacteria, probiotics, and phages as a candidate prophylactic or therapeutic approach in SARS-CoV-2 cytokine storm episodes will be discussed at last.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Efficacy of Disc Diffusion and Agar Dilution Methods in Evaluating Helicobacter pylori Susceptibility to Antibiotics

BACKGROUND: In this study, efficacy and consistency of disc diffusion (DD) and agar dilution (AD) methods in determining Helicobacter pylori susceptibility to antibiotics were evaluated using Brucella blood agar (BBA) in both methods and tetrazolium egg yolk agar (TEYA) in AD. METHODS: Twenty H. pylori isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics; metronidazole (MTZ), clarithromycin (CLR), amoxicillin (AMX), tetracycline (TET), ofloxacin (OFX), levofloxacin (LVX), ciprofloxacin (CIP), furazolidone (FRZ), and rifampin (RIF). Antibiotics solutions were impregnated into blank paper disks on BBA in the DD method or added to BBA (ADB) or TEYA (ADT) media in the AD method. Suspensions of H. pylori isolates were surface or spot inoculated on solid media. Plates were incubated in CO₂ incubator at 37°C for 5-7 days. RESULTS: The highest rate of susceptibility to MTZ (65%) was determined by DD method compared with AD method (ADB: 40%, ADT: 30%). Both methods showed similar CLR (85%) and AMX (100%) susceptibility rates. Susceptibility to remaining antibiotics, determined by DD and ADB/ADT media were in respective order as 95%, 75% / 75% for TET, 100%, 95% / 85% for FRZ, 85%, 85% / 75% for OFX, 90%, 95% / 85% for LVX, 90%, 85% / 85% for CIP, and 100%, 85% / 75% for RIF. CONCLUSION: DD and AD methods showed consistency in determining 161 (89.4%) susceptibility and resistance and inconsistency in determining 19 (10.6%) susceptibility and resistance (P < 0.05). DD is recommended as a cheap and easy method with the efficacy and precision comparable to the AD method in determining H. pylori susceptibility to antibiotics.

The seroprevalence of celiac disease in patients with symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome: A cross-sectional study in north of Iran

BACKGROUND

Celiac disease (CD) is a common cause of malabsorption that is definitively diagnosed by abnormal bowel biopsy, symptoms and histologic changes to gluten free diet. The symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are common in our community as the majority of people in Guilan, north of Iran, consume rice daily. Also, a number of celiac patients are unknown, and IBS are mistakenly diagnosed.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of CD among IBS patients.

METHODS

A total of 475 consecutive patients with IBS, confirmed by Rome IV, underwent celiac serological tests antitissue transglutaminase antibodies (IgA-tTG, IgG-tTG) after obtaining a written consent form. In case of positive serological tests, biopsy was performed from small intestine after endoscopyRESULTS: Thirty-one (6.53%, 95% CI: 4.55-9.22) patients were positive for celiac serology. Based on Marsh-Oberhuber criteria, out of 9 patients with positive pathology 77.78% (95% CI: 40.19-96.05) had marsh IIIc. In IBS patients cramp (0.009) and stomach fullness (0.021) were two statistically significant IBS symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest physicians to consider celiac examinations for all patients with IBS symptoms, even for patients with no obvious celiac symptoms.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

OLGA- and OLGIM-Based Staging in the Patients with Gastritis and Endoscopy Indications

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer is one of the most common cancers with high mortality. In Iran, the high-risk regions include Northern and Northwestern parts. The aim of this study was to assess the operative link on gastritis assessment- and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia-based staging in patients with upper gastrointestinal symptoms.

METHODS

Totally, 345 patients underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Also, the status of Helicobacter pylori infection was evaluated using rapid urease test and histological method. Moreover, histological changes were assessed using the Update Sydney System. The operative link on gastritis assessment- and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia-based stages of 0-II were considered as low-risk stages and stages III and IV were considered as high-risk stages.

RESULTS

Most of the patients were lower than 60 years (245 patients, 71%), and 71.9% of our patients had H. pylori infection. The frequency of atrophic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia was 44.9% and 25.2%, respectively (P < .001). Eleven patients (73.7%) with gastric adenocarcinoma had a low risk and 2 patients with low-grade dysplasia had a high risk of operative link on gastritis assessment and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia. Almost, 62.5% of gastric cancer patients with an intestinal type of gastric adenocarcinoma were at low-risk stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Although high stages of operative link on gastritis assessment and operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia need further follow-up, lower stages of atrophy or intestinal metaplasia also require follow-up. Furthermore, operative link on gastritis assessment method in detecting a greater number of patients who need follow-up is more successful and profitable.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Dietary supplements consumption and its association with socioeconomic factors, obesity and main non-communicable chronic diseases in the north of Iran: the PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

BACKGROUND

Dietary supplements (DSs) use have become a growing trend worldwide, and it may be affected by demographic and sociocultural factors. Some people use supplements with the thought that they can improve their health, reduce symptoms and prevent disease. The aim of the present study was to define the frequency of DS use and its association with socioeconomic factors among participants with selected main non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) (diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension (HTN), cancers, and obesity in the north of Iran.

METHODS

This large cross-sectional study was conducted as a part of the PERSIAN Guilan cohort study. Supplement use during last year and its type, demographic factors, socioeconomic status, lifestyle habits were asked by face-to-face interview. The history of chronic disease was defined by a trained team. Data were analyzed using SPSS. The chance of supplement use according to demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle variables and history of chronic disease was analyzed by logistic regression.

RESULTS

10,520 men and women aged 35-70 years in Some'e Sara County (including urban regions and 39 villages) were studied. About 25% of participants consumed DSs. The highest consumption of DS was calcium/vitamin D (11.1%), ferrous sulfate (8.8%), and vitamin D pearl or ampoule (7.7%). The highest percent of the history of chronic disease was central obesity (62.7%), HTN (43.2%), and general obesity (32.7), respectively. After adjustment for confounders, those with female gender, the highest age ranges (55-65 and > 65 years), high academic education, living in urban regions, and good economic status were more likely to be DSs consumers; however, married and smoker subjects were more likely to consume DS. Participants who had a history of diabetes, HTN, CVD, Obesity, and Central Obesity were more likely to intake DS in comparison with healthy subjects.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that a quarter of the participants were DS users. Female sex, older age groups, and higher educated participants, and among chronic disease, patients with HTN, CVD, and diabetes were more likely to be users of any DS.

Evaluation of the effect of sofosbuvir and daclatasvir in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a randomized double-blind clinical trial (DISCOVER)

Background

The combination of sofosbuvir and daclatasvir has shown preliminary efficacy for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in four open-label studies with small sample sizes. This larger trial aimed to assess if the addition of sofosbuvir/daclatasvir to standard care improved clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Methods

This was a placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized clinical trial in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 at 19 hospitals in Iran. Patients were randomized to oral sofosbuvir/daclatasvir 400/60 mg once-daily or placebo in addition to standard of care. Patients were included if they had positive PCR or diagnostic chest CT, O₂ saturation <95% and compatible symptoms. The primary outcome was hospital discharge within 10 days of randomization. Secondary outcomes included mortality and time to clinical events. The trial is registered on the Iran Registry of Clinical Trials under IRCT20200624047908N1.

Results

Between July and October 2020, 1083 patients were randomized to either the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir arm (n = 541) or the placebo arm (n = 542). No significant difference was observed in the primary outcome of hospital discharge within 10 days, which was achieved by 415/541 (77%) in the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir arm and 411/542 (76%) in the placebo arm [risk ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% CI 0.95–1.08, P = 0.734]. In-hospital mortality was 60/541 (11%) in the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir arm versus 55/542 (10%) in the placebo arm (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.77–1.54, P = 0.615). No differences were observed in time to hospital discharge or time to in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions

We observed no significant effect of sofosbuvir/daclatasvir versus placebo on hospital discharge or survival in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Nationwide Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes and Associated Risk Factors Among Iranian Adults: Analysis of Data from PERSIAN Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decades prevalence of diabetes has increased in Iran and other countries. This study aimed to update the prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in Iran and to determine associated sociodemographic risk factors, as well as diabetes awareness and control.

METHODS

This is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey that included 163,770 Iranian adults aged 35-70 years, from different ethnic backgrounds, between 2014 and 2020. Diabetes was diagnosed at fasting blood sugar of ≥ 6.99 mmol/L (126 mg/dL), or receiving blood glucose-lowering treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to detect determinants associated with prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes, as well as predictors of diabetes awareness and glycemic control.

RESULTS

Sex- and age-standardized prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes was 15.0% (95% CI 12.6-17.3) and 25.4% (18.6-32.1), respectively. Among patients with diabetes, 79.6% (76.2-82.9) were aware of their diabetes. Glycemic control was achieved in 41.2% (37.5-44.8) of patients who received treatment. Older age, obesity, high waist to hip ratio (WHR), and specific ethnic background were associated with a significant risk of diabetes and prediabetes. Higher awareness of diabetes was observed in older patients, married individuals, those with high WHR, and individuals with high wealth score. Moreover, glycemic control was significantly better in women, obese individuals, those with high physical activity, educational attainment, and specific ethnic background.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes is increasing at an alarming rate in Iranian adults. High proportion of uncontrolled patients require particular initiatives to be integrated in the health care system.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dynamics of the COVID-19 Clinical Findings and the Serologic Response

The factors affecting the dynamics of lengthening of symptoms and serologic responses are not well known. In order to see how the serologic responses change in relation to the clinical features, we selected a group of 472 adults with a positive IgM/IgG antibody test result from a baseline study of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, assessed their COVID-19 and past medical histories, and followed them up in about 3 months. Nearly one-fourth of the subjects were asymptomatic at the baseline; 12.8% subjects became symptomatic at the follow-up (FU) when 39.8% of the subjects had some persisting symptoms. At the baseline, 6.1% showed anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM positive, 59.3% only for IgG, and 34.5% for both. At the FU, these figures declined to 0.6, 54.0, and 4.4%, respectively, with the mean IgM and IgG levels declining about 6.3 and 2.5 folds. Blood group A was consistently linked to both sustaining and flipping of the gastrointestinal (GI) and respiratory symptoms. The baseline IgM level was associated with GI symptoms and pre-existing cirrhosis in multivariate models. Both of the baseline and FU IgG levels were strongly associated with age, male, and lung involvement seen in chest computed tomography (CT)-scan. Finally, as compared with antibody decayers, IgM sustainers were found to be more anosmic [mean difference (MD): 11.5%; P = 0.047] with lower body mass index (BMI) (MD: 1.30 kg/m²; P = 0.002), while IgG sustainers were more commonly females (MD: 19.2%; P = 0.042) with shorter diarrhea duration in the FU (MD: 2.8 days; P = 0.027). Our findings indicate how the anti-SARS-CoV-2 serologic response and COVID-19 clinical presentations change in relation to each other and basic characteristics.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Food Behaviors and Its Association with Hypertension and Cardiovascular Diseases in Sowme'eh Sara (North of Iran): The PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

Food behavior and dietary pattern are major parameters affecting the health status of people. The objective of this study was investigation of food behaviors in people inhabited in North of Iran to find out association of the effective indices (related to salt and fried foods) with hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This large cross-sectional study was conducted on 10,520 participants and their sociodemographic, medical, and food behavior information were evaluated. Association of salt intake with CVDs and stroke was studied by portfolio at risk (PAR) formula. Association of food behavior with hypertension and CVDs was surveyed by chi-square test. Differences were significant at P≤0.05. Analysis of medical information revealed that 43.18% and 8.18% of the participants had hypertension and CVDs, respectively; mostly in women. Significant association was observed between salt-related behaviors and hypertension in the participants. Regarding salt intake, higher PARs were calculated in women than men (2.26 vs. 1.88 for PAR_CVDs and 3.66 vs. 3.05 for PAR_stroke), and urban than rural inhabitants (4.56 vs. 3.66 for PAR_CVDs and 7.27 vs. 5.88 for PAR_stroke). No significant contribution was observed between oil-related behaviors and CVDs. The majority of participants were well-informed about appropriate preparation and consumption of fried foods but not a healthy behavior about salt intake. Considering the significant association of salt-related behaviors with hypertension, conducting educational programs by healthcare practitioners in the population is suggested.

Helicobacter pylori infection in Iran: demographic, endoscopic and pathological factors

Background

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is the most important risk factor for gastritis and peptic ulcer. However, factors other than H. pylori are involved in its pathogenesis. In the current study, we aimed to compare the clinical manifestations and endoscopic and histopathological findings of patients with and without H. pylori infection.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, 233 patients with dyspepsia, referred for endoscopy, were examined regarding the presence of H. pylori infection. During an endoscopic exam, 5 biopsy specimens were taken from the stomach. The criteria for the presence of H. pylori infection was the presence and identification of bacteria in pathology. Two groups of H. pylori-positive and H. pylori-negative patients were compared regarding their demographic, endoscopic, and pathological findings.

Results

Of 233 patients, 154 (66.1%) were non-smokers, 201 (86.3%) were not alcohol users, and 153 (65.7%) used tap water. The most common symptom, reported in 157 (67.4%) patients, was epigastric pain. There was a significant difference between patients with and without H. pylori infection in terms of the educational status, occupational status, family history of gastrointestinal cancer, and some gastrointestinal symptoms. Also, there was a significant relationship between the endoscopic and pathological findings of patients with H. pylori.

Conclusions

The results of the present study revealed that H. pylori infection was not associated with sex, alcohol consumption, or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use. The role of H. pylori in the pathophysiology of peptic ulcer was clarified. Also, there was a significant difference in the endoscopic and pathological findings of patients with H. pylori.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.