Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sexual Behaviors in Iranian Working Children and the Correlated Risk Factors: Result of the Large-Scale Rapid Assessment and Response (RAR) Survey

This study aimed to investigate the sexual behaviors among working children and the associated factors. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 1937 working children in the 10-18 age range in 15 provincial capitals in 2019-20 (Feb-May); the Response rate was 94.9%. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the variable of sexual behaviors. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported. The prevalence of sexual behaviors in working children was 4.2%. The results showed a significant difference between those who reported sexual behaviors and those who did not in terms of age, identity document (ID), running away from home, alcohol use, and substance use. There was a statistically significant relationship between fathers' unemployment and sexual behaviors among working children. Furthermore, we found that having divorced parents could increase the odds of sexual behaviors by 3.74 times. The findings showed that related welfare and support organizations should design and implement effective and continuous training and interventions to raise awareness and reduce the prevalence of high-risk sexual behaviors in working children. They should also provide family counseling and promote parental supervision of children.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Predictors of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among people who use substances: a case study in Tehran

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is one of the most effective ways to manage infectious disease epidemics such as Covid-19. However, the low rates of vaccination in populations at risk including people using illicit substances, hinders the effectiveness of preventive vaccines in reducing transmission. The aim of this study was to investigate the rate of Covid-19 vaccination and its related factors among people who use substances in Tehran, Iran.

METHODS

Between July and December 2022, 386 people who use substances aged ≥ 18 years old were recruited by convenience street-based sampling in Tehran. The outcome variable in this study was self-reported completion of at least two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. Logistic regression was used to investigate the factors related to Covid-19 vaccination. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 20 at the 0.05 level of significance. As a measure of risk, 95% Confidence interval (CI) was used. The level of significance was considered at 0.05.

RESULTS

Almost three-quarters (n = 286) of the participants reported receiving at least two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine (95% CI, 70.2-79.3). Those participants with high school diplomas were 1.17 times more likely than less educated participants to report having had 2 vaccinations (OR of 1.17, CI 95%: 1.03-1.81). Participants with a higher mean score of having a positive attitude towards Covid-19 vaccination were more likely to have received a vaccination (OR of 1.12, CI 95%: 1.08-1.17). Ethnicity was also an influential variable, people with non-Fars ethnicity were less likely to be vaccinated than those of Fars ethnicity (OR of 0.33, CI 95%: 0.13-0.81). People with higher-than-average monthly income were more likely to report vaccination than those with low monthly incomes (OR of 1.27, CI 95%: 1.09-1.8). Also, participants reporting less access to vaccination centers had a lower chance of reporting having been vaccinated than those who reported high access to vaccination centers (OR of .17, CI 95%: .08-.36).

CONCLUSIONS

Covid-19 vaccine uptake was found to be relatively high among people using illicit substances in this study. Higher levels of education, Fars ethnicity, higher income levels, having a positive attitude towards vaccination and access to vaccination centers were the most important predictors of Covid-19 vaccination in this study.

Spatial, geographic, and demographic factors associated with adolescent and youth suicide: a systematic review study

Background

Suicide is a public health issue and a main cause of mortality among adolescents and the youth worldwide, particularly in developing countries.

Objectives

The present research is a systematic review aiming to investigate the spatial, geographical, and demographic factors related to suicide among adolescents and the youth.

Methods

In this systematic review, two researchers examined PsycINFO, Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed databases on December 7th, 2022 with no time limits from the beginning of publication until 2022 to identify the primary studies on spatial and geographic analysis on adolescent and youth suicides. Once duplicate studies were identified and removed, the titles and abstracts of studies were examined and irrelevant studies were also removed. Finally, 22 studies were reviewed based on the inclusion criteria.

Results

Our findings show that suicide rates are generally higher among men, residents of rural and less densely populated regions, coastal and mountainous regions, natives, 15-29 age group, less privileged populations with social fragmentation, unemployed, divorced or lonely people, those who live in single parent families, people with mental health issues, and those with low levels of education.

Conclusions

Stronger evidence supports the effects of geographic and demographic variables on youth and adolescent suicide rates as compared with spatial variables. These findings suggest that policy makers take spatial and demographic factors into consideration when health systems allocate resources for suicide prevention, and that national policymakers integrate demographic and geographic variables into health service programs.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42023430994.

Exploring the determinants of health service utilization among people living with HIV: a qualitative study in Iran

BACKGROUND

Health service utilization among people living with HIV is vital for their survival and quality of life. This study aims to exploring the determinants influencing health service utilization among people living with HIV.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study involving 16 men and women aged 18-64 living with HIV in Tehran. Data were collected between September and December 2021 through semi-structured interviews conducted via telephone and online platforms, utilizing the purposeful sampling method. Data were analyzed by MAXQDA-2018 software using conventional content analysis approaches and the Granheim and Landman method.

RESULTS

Two main themes, seven categories, and 21 subcategories were obtained from the interviews. The main themes included facilitators of health service utilization (positive personality traits, social factors, and structural-behavioral determinants) and inhibitors of health service utilization (personal conditions, insufficient knowledge and understanding of the disease, negative consequences of disease disclosure, and difficult access to services).

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the need to invest and expand specialized services for people living with HIV by policy makers, while simultaneously increasing public awareness to reduce the social stigma.

Life-time HIV testing among people who inject drugs in Iran: results from the National Rapid Assessment and Response survey

Background

HIV testing is recommended for people who inject drugs (PWID). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of lifetime HIV testing among PWID and to better understand the predictors for HIV testing in a convenience sample across Iran.

Materials and methods

This study is a secondary analysis of Iran's National Rapid Assessment and Response survey conducted between October 2016 and March 2017. Analysis includes the 999 people who reported injecting drugs across the capital cities of 21 provinces. Data were collected by using the venue-based application of the Time Location Sampling (TLS) frame. Chi-square tests were used to examine the difference between HIV testing across different quantitative variables. Logistic regression was used to determine the predictors of life-time HIV testing. Analysis was performed using STATA V.12 software with a significance level of 95%.

Results

Most participants were male (n = 902, 93.50%), and over half (n = 555, 59.17%) were older than 35 years old. About one-third, (n = 326, 38%) of people interviewed were single and another one-third (n = 251, 29%) reported being divorced. Over two-thirds of participants (n = 678, 69.78%) in this study reported lifetime HIV testing. The results from a multiple variable logistic regression showed people with a university education were more likely to have been previously tested for HIV than illiterate people (OR = 18.87, 95%CI 2.85-124.6, value of p = 0.002). Those individuals who reported ever receiving methadone treatment were 2.8 times more likely to have been tested for HIV than individuals without methadone treatment experience (OR = 2.89, 95%CI 1.53-5.42, value of p < 0.001). Needle syringe sharing in last month, was negatively associated with life-time HIV testing (OR = 0.29, 95%CI 0.17-0.48, value of p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Despite Iran's wide availability and access to counseling services for HIV testing in key populations, the proportion of PWID being tested for HIV could be improved. Developing effective strategies to increase people's understanding and awareness of the importance of and need for HIV prevention and familiarity with HIV testing sites is an essential step in increasing HIV testing for this population. Studies on more recent HIV testing are required to better assess and understand the frequency of HIV testing among PWID in Iran.

Risk and protective factors related to having a child with congenital heart diseases (CHD): a case-control study in Iran

Background

The heart is the first fully developed organ in early pregnancy, especially in the first trimester of pregnancy, so any factor that contributes to heart failure is life-threatening. Thus, it is important to identify the risk and preventive factors related to this disease and to provide a scientific basis for the control, prevention, management and treatment of Child with Congenital Heart Diseases (CHD).

Objectives

As the etiology of CHD is multifactorial, to identify the risk and preventive factors, this study aimed to investigate the factors related to CHD in Tehran, Iran.

Methods

The present case-control study was performed on 600 people including 200 mothers of children with CHD. Simple random sampling was performed in 2020. The control group was matched with the case group, and the data were analyzed by SPSS software at a significance level of 0.5.

Results

The results showed that low socioeconomic status, low education, history of abortion, smoking, alcohol consumption are risk factors, and consumption of folic acid, and prenatal care are the protective factors against CHD.

Conclusion

According to the findings, our emphasis should be on preventive strategies, education of mothers and public health experts on the need for folic acid and pregnancy care, and cessation or reduction of alcohol and tobacco use, especially in families with low socioeconomic status and low level of education.

Scoping review of outpatient health services utilization among women

BACKGROUND

Health services utilization, as one of the mechanisms of the health system, guarantees a healthy life and improves well-being for everyone.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to identify factors affecting the use of outpatient health services among women.

METHODS/DESIGNS

This scoping review examined the studies related to outpatient health services utilization (OHSU) and its determinants among women. This review was conducted on English language studies published between 2010 and 2023 (All searches were conducted on 20 January 2023). Studies available in databases such as Web of Science, MEDLINE (PubMed), Scopus, Wiley library, Proquest, and Google Scholar were searched manually. Selected keywords and their equivalents were used to search for related articles in each database.

RESULTS

A total of 18 795 articles were identified, of which 37 met the inclusion criteria. Findings showed that age, marital status, level of education, employment status, income level, socioeconomic status, rape experience, health insurance, health status, ethnicity, living in rural areas, quality of services, area of residence, having a purpose in life and access to health services affect OHSU among women.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the present review showed that in order to achieve the universal goals of health services coverage and health service utilization, it is necessary for countries to provide insurance coverage to the maximum number of people. Also, policies should change in favor of the elderly, poor and low-income, low-educated, rural, ethnic minority, and chronically ill women and provide them with free preventive health services.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementing the six sigma model on the treatment of congenital hypothyroidism: An analytical hierarchy process

Background: Congenital hypothyroidism is a disease able to cause severe mental retardation and developmental delays. However, timely diagnosis and treatment of infants with this disease could prevent relevant complications. This study aims to investigate the effects of the implementation of the Six Sigma model on reducing the treatment initiation time in infants with congenital hypothyroidism in the population chosen from Samen Health Center in Mashhad.

Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, the referral process of infants for congenital hypothyroidism screening and treatment was evaluated for the time period starting from March 20, 2017, to March 19, 2018, using the standard five-phase quality strategy, description, measurement, analysis, improvement and control phase (DMAIC), based on Six Sigma. Data were collected using the sampling form of the national screening program for congenital hypothyroidism. To analyze the data, software including Expert Choice V11, Microsoft Excel 2013, and SPSS 18, were utilized. In addition, a p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results: The number of infants who entered the intervention process was 4,574, of whom 51.3% (2346 infants) were boys. The mean time to start treatment before the implementation of the model was 21.72±7.72 days, which decreased to 17.41±6.47 days after the implementation of the model (p≤ 0.05). Besides, 81.8% of the patients received treatment during infancy before the intervention, which increased to 94.1% after it. After the implementation of the Six Sigma model, the Sigma level of treatment initiation improved from 2.41 to 3.06.

Conclusion: Six Sigma could be used as an intervention tool for improving indices of health intervention processes.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Investigating the effect of social support, social capital, and coping on the positive state of mind of Iranian older people with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

BACKGROUND

Social resources help to adapt to stress and might positively affect the well-being of individuals with severe conditions like human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). The present study investigates the effect of social support, social capital, and coping in a positive state of mind of Iranian older people with HIV/AIDS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted on 160 older people with HIV referred to AIDS clinics in Tehran in 2019. Samples were randomly selected from patients aged 50 years and older. Data were collected using a questionnaire, a positive state of mind, social capital, coping, social support, and a checklist of demographical variables. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software version 21.

RESULTS

A significant positive correlation was found between social support, social capital, coping, education, and a positive state of mind. A significant negative correlation was also found between age, several chronic diseases of the patient, and a positive state of mind. The linear regression results showed that social support, social capital, coping, and education improved the positive state of mind.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our findings, we believe that social and psychological interventions effectively enhance patients' positive state of mind with HIV and ultimately, improve their quality of life.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Outpatient health service utilization and associated factors: A cross-sectional population-based study in Tehran in 2019

Background: Health service utilization (HSU) is a significant health and political issue. Awareness of factors that affect HSU and the status of health service utilization can help health professionals improve their services. The aim of this study was to investigate the status of HSU and identify the factors affecting health service utilization among households residing in Tehran. Methods: The present cross-sectional study included 1200 residing households from different regions of Tehran, the capital of Iran. They were selected by a multi-stage cluster sampling method in accordance with the zoning of Tehran concerning socio-economic development. Interviews were conducted by trained individuals using a health service utilization questionnaire introduced by the World Health Organization, Zimet's social support questionnaire, and demographic checklist during winter 2018 and spring 2019. Simple and multiple logistic regression models were applied to analyze the data. In order to include the factors related to the status of outpatient health service utilization, a set of bivariate analyses was conducted, and then the factors with a p-value of ≤0.20 were included in the multiple models. Data were analyzed using Stata 12 software. Results: The results of the study indicated that the rate of outpatient HSU among households residing in Tehran was 63.61% (CI:60, 66.80). In addition, regarding the results of the study, asset index of family (OR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.91), the level of awareness and knowledge of family members regarding health issues (OR=0.55, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.88) as well as the mother knowledge on health issues (OR=0.64, 95% CI: 0.45, 0.93), the level of social support (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.37,0.68), family health expenditure (OR=1.20, 95% CI: 1.18, 4.06), having a member with a sort of disability in family (OR=1.66, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.77), and having an alcoholic member in family (OR=2.44, 95% CI: 1.27, 4.68) were factors associated with outpatient HSU among households. Considering the adjusted values of odds ratios, the prevalence of the HSU varied according to the area of residence. It should be noted that the variables included in the model explained 15% of the changes in the prevalence of HSU. Conclusion: According to the results of the study and in order to increase HSU in different classes, the level of social support, especially among women in the family due to their role in the general health of family members, should be enhanced. Also, policies should be adopted to increase the awareness, knowledge, and information of family members about health issues, lifestyle changes, nutrition, and health behaviors through social media.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HIV testing and its associated factors among street-based female sex workers in Iran: results of a national rapid assessment and response survey

Background

Female sex workers (FSWs) are at a disproportionate risk of sexually transmitted infections and they may face significant barriers to HIV testing. This study aimed to examine HIV testing prevalence and its associated factors among street-based FSWs in Iran.

Method

A total of 898 FSWs were recruited from 414 venues across 19 major cities in Iran between October 2016 and March 2017. Eligible FSWs were women aged 18 years of age who had at least one commercial sexual intercourse in the previous year. HIV testing was defined as having tested for HIV in the lifetime. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to examine the correlates of HIV testing. We report adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Result

Overall, 57.8% (95%CI: 20.0, 88.0) of participants reported having tested for HIV, and HIV prevalence among FSWs who tested for HIV was 10.3% (95%CI: 7.5, 13.0). The multivariable model showed that unstable housing (aOR: 8.86, 95%CI: 2.68, 29.32) and drug use (aOR: 3.47, 95%CI: 1.33, 9.06) were associated with increased likelihood of HIV testing. However, FSWs with a higher level of income were less likely to be tested for HIV (aOR: 0.09, 95%CI: 0.02, 0.43).

Conclusion

Almost one in ten street-based FSWs had never tested for HIV. These findings suggest the need for evidence-based strategies such as outreach support and HIV self-testing to improve HIV testing in this marginalized population.

Drug injection and associated factors among the elderly living with HIV/AIDS in Tehran, Iran

Background: Injection of drugs is one of the most serious health problems among Iranian living with HIV/AIDS. The injection of drugs, accounting for the transmission of more than two-thirds of HIV infections. HIV remains a major concern around the world and is expected to be the third leading cause of mortality worldwide. Thus, the aim of this study was to explore the predictors of injection drug use in the elderly patients living with HIV/AIDS. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study executed in Tehran City, Iran, in 2018. A total of 160 individuals aged 60 years and older with HIV from different counseling centers were selected by convenience sampling. Data were collected using questionnaires including a positive state of mind, coping, social support, and a checklist of demographical variables. Bivariate analysis and multiple logistic regression using SPSS software version 21.0 were employed to determine factors associated with drug injection. The statistical tests were performed with a significance level of 5% (p≥0.05). Results: The study participants' mean(SD) age was 65.6(±6.6) years. In total, 33 people (20.6%) of the samples reported injection drug use. The frequency of injection drug use was greater among men (AOR: 2.28, 95% CI 2.2-22.8; p=0.010), those reporting a monthly income of ≥30000000 Rials (AOR: 31.56, 95% CI 2.95-338; p=0.004), subjects with past experience of drug use (AOR: 7.11, 95% CI 2.18-23.2; p=0.001), those with ≥2 years past from their HIV diagnosis (AOR: 4.04, 95% CI 1.12-14.58; p=0.033), and those living with more than two people in one residential place (Household size AOR: 5.9, 95% CI 1.64-21.24; p=0.007). Conclusion: It seems that the design and implementation of harm reduction programs among the elderly with HIV/AIDS who inject drugs are essential and should be considered as an agenda of policymakers and health professionals.

Determinants of mammography screening in Tehranian women in 2018 based on the health belief model: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer among women. Mammography is the most sensitive and important method for screening and early diagnosis of breast cancer. Considering the importance of using mammography in breast cancer screening, this study was performed to evaluate mammographic determinants.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In the cross-sectional study, we surveyed 985 women over 40 years in Tehran concerning demographic characteristics: age, socioeconomic status, a problem in the breast, alcohol use, drug use, and health belief model. Logistic regression was used to identify determinant factors associated with mammography performance.

RESULTS

The results of this study showed that 42.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 38, 45) participant performed mammography at least once during their lifetime. Age (odds ratio [OR] = 4.252; 95% CI = 2.041-8.857); housing situation (OR = 1.706; 95% CI = 1.178-2.469); having breast problems (OR = 5.224; 95% CI = 3.501-7.795); socioeconomic status (OR = 1.855; 95% CI = 1.035-3.325); family income level (OR = 1.998; 95% CI = 1.028-3.884); alcohol consumption (OR = 2.676; 95% CI = 1.344-5.328); smoking (OR = 2.824; 95% CI = 1.418-5.623); self-efficacy (OR = 1.935; 95% CI = 1.242-3.015); perceived barriers (OR = 2.017; 95% CI = 1.348-3.019); self-care (OR = 4.901; 95% CI = 3.152-7.620); perceived susceptibility (OR = 1.971; 95% CI = 1.271-3.057) and perceived severity (OR = 1.830; 95% CI = 1.170-2.860) were mammography behaviors determinants.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicated that the rate of mammography screening among Tehranian women is low and highlights the need for developing a comprehensive national breast cancer control program, which should be considered as the priority for health-care providers. Furthermore, the identification of these factors can help to design an appropriate educational intervention that focuses on the benefits of mammography screening.

Incidence of HIV and HCV in people who inject drugs: a systematic and meta-analysis review protocol

INTRODUCTION

HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are major health concerns globally. This systematic review and meta-analysis protocol study aims to estimate the incidence of HIV and HCV among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) by reviewing studies that have applied mathematical modelling. The primary purpose of this systematic review is to identify and review mathematical modelling studies of HIV and HCV incidence in PWIDs.Methods and analysis cohort, cross-sectional and clinical trial studies conducted to estimate the incidence of HIV and HCV based on mathematical models or have evaluated the effectiveness of mathematical models will be considered for inclusion in the review. A comprehensive search applying a Cochrane approach will be used to identify relevant primary studies, published between January 2000 and July 2020, and indexed in PubMed, EMBASE, Opengrey, WOS, SCOPUS and Cochrane Library with no restriction on language. This protocol was prepared according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P). Study selection and data extraction will be performed by two independent reviewers. Assessment of risk of bias will be implemented using forms of the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme. Publication bias will be assessed by funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's tests. A meta-analysis will be conducted to answer the first research question, 'What is the incidence of HIV and HCV when applying mathematical model in PWID?'. Clinical heterogeneity will be assessed by looking at the characteristics of participants, method of diagnosis and case definitions in the included primary studies. In addition, subgroup analyses will be conducted for population and secondary outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

There are no ethical issues related to this study. The findings will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and presented at international and national conferences.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019126476.

Inequities as a social determinant of health: Responsibility in paying attention to the poor and vulnerable at risk of COVID-19

Significance for public health The social nature of COVID-19 disease requires that all social capacities, including prevention and socio-economic policies, be used to prevent and control it as much as possible in order to reimburse and compensate the lost income of the affected strata in the form of financial and livelihood assistance.

Nongovernmental organizations and social aspects of COVID-19 pandemic: A successful experience in health policy

Background: This study aimed to provide information on activities and experiences of Nongovernmental organizations in Tabriz regarding COVID-19 to develop a framework for effective measures and actions for other communities based on relevant achievements and experiences. Method: The Social determinants of health research center of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences coordinated the NGOs to deal with the consequences of COVID-19 disease by announcing, inviting, developing networks and preparing aims and objectives and action plans in participation with the NGOs. Results: This cooperation and synergy among NGOs led to following results: providing public health education, fund raising to provide health service and food items for vulnerable families, advocacy by writing letters to the governor and the City Council and emphasizing the needs for controlling the epidemics. Conclusion: NGOs can increase public awareness, change social policies, and provide services and facilities to the vulnerable groups of people to deal with these problems.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lifestyle modification strategies for controlling hypertension: How are these strategies recommended by physicians in Iran?

Background: This study aimed to evaluate lifestyle changes and their impact on hypertension control and why and how lifestyle modifications are recommended for patients with hypertension. Four non pharmacological strategies have been recommended by physicians for hypertension control for hypertensive patients in Iran: healthier diet, smoking cessation, physical activity, and weight loss.

Methods: Among participants of Iran STEPS Non-communicable Disease Risk Factors Survey (STEPs), 7879 hypertensive patients aged ≥25 years were selected. All statistical analyses were calculated using STATA software version 14. Means, proportions, and multiple binary logistic regression models were used. Two-tailed p values of <0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results: The results of this study showed that about three quarters of people with high blood pressure had been recommended lifestyle strategies by their physician for blood pressure control. Of the participants, 41% reported that they had been recommended only lifestyle modification for their blood pressure (BP), while 35% reported that they were recommended both lifestyle changes and medications as part of their treatment. Healthier diet, 71.9% (70.8-72.9), and smoking cessation, 23.8% (21.4-25.6), were the most and least frequently recommended strategies, respectively. Also, the rates of recommendations on smoking cessation, weight loss, increased physical activity, and healthier diet were more among women, married, and illiterate individuals, respectively.

Conclusion: Because of the changes and transitions in the lifestyle and dietary habits in the modern world, policies and training programs should be developed to improve the recommendations on lifestyle modification. Also, educational programs should be developed to increase patient’s acceptance of lifestyle modifications and physical activity.

Identifying the Social Determinants of Breast Health Behavior: a Qualitative Content Analysis

Background: Prevention, early diagnosis and reduction of mortality caused by breast cancer are the priorities of the world health systems. The aim of this study was to identify the social factors that affect the women’s breast health behavior based on the social determinants model of the World Health Organization (WHO). Materials and Method: This qualitative study was conducted and analyzed using content analysis approach. The data were collected from 32 participants by semi-structured interviews and focused group discussion. The participants comprised of breast surgeons, radiologists, health care providers and women over 35 years of age in Tehran who were selected through purposeful sampling. The interviews continued until data saturation was reached. Results: Based on the experiences of the participants, three themes were obtained from the data that shaped the women’s breast health behavior, including 1) the context of health policy, 2) socioeconomic status, and 3) cultural, psychological, and behavioral factors. Conclusion: A better understanding of social determinants related to breast health behavior can be effective in designing and applying of appropriate theories and models of education and intervention, so that, by early diagnosis of breast cancer and timely treatment of patients, the disease complications and mortality would be reduced.

Decomposition of Economic Inequality in Needle and Syringe Programs Utilization to its Determinants among Men Who Inject Drugs in Tehran using Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition Method

BACKGROUND

According to latest available data there are more of 300,000 people injects drug users (PWID) in Iran.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we used a Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition to explore the relative contributions of inequality in utilization of NSPs and to decompose it to its determinants in Teheran.

METHODS

We used data from a cross-sectional survey using snowball sampling to recruit 500 PWID from June to July 2016 in Tehran. Participants were reported injecting drug use in the past month, were able to speak and comprehend Farsi enough to respond to survey questions, and were able to provide informed consent to complete the interview. We used a BO method to decompose the role of economic inequality on utilization of needle and syringe programs.

RESULTS

A total 520 of clients participated in the study of which data was fully complete for 500. The selected predictor variables (age, education level, marital status, homelessness, HIV risk perception, and HIV knowledge) together explain 54% (8.5% out of 16%) of total inequality in utilization of needle and syringe programs and the remaining 46% constitute the unexplained residual. HIV risk perception status contributed about 38% (3.3% out of 8.5%) to the total health inequality, followed by HIV knowledge (26%) and education level were contributed 20% each, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that contribution of economic inequalities in utilization of NSPs was primarily explained by the differential effects of HIV risk perception and HIV knowledge among PWID. Reducing HIV risk perception and increasing HIV knowledge might be essential to efforts to eliminate inequalities in access to NSPs among PWID.

Factors associated with time between using a drug and injection initiation among people who inject drugs in Kermanshah, Iran

Background The transition from non-injection to injection drug use dramatically increases the risk of transmitting HIV and other blood borne infections including hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). The aim of this study was to explore factors associated with the transition from first illicit drug use to first injection among drug users. Methods Using snowball sampling and convenience sampling through needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), we recruited 500 people who inject drugs (PWID) in Kermanshah, between September and December 2014. Trained interviewers collected data on socio-demographic characteristics, HIV testing and drug-related risk behaviors over the last month prior to interview using a structured questionnaire. Our main outcome variable was first illicit drug use to first injection (TIJ). TIJ was calculated by subtracting age at first drug injection from age of first illicit drug use. Results Overall, the average age at first drug use and injection were 21.4 [standard deviation (SD 5.6)] and 22.8 (SD 8.9), respectively. The average duration of injection was 6.0 (SD 4.6) years. Overall, the mean of TIJ for participants was 1.4 (IQR = 2, 4) years. Age of first injecting drug use negatively correlated with TIJ (R2 = 0.219, p = 0.001). Education level and socioeconomic status (SES), and negatively correlated with TIJ. Conclusion Some demographic factors and drug use characteristics including educational level, SES, knowledge of HIV status, age of initiating drug use, being a poly drug user and using methamphetamine were predictors of the time to transition.