Predictors of Severity of Influenza-Related Hospitalizations: Results From the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN)

BACKGROUND

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) has since 2012 provided patient-level data on severe influenza-like-illnesses from >100 participating clinical sites worldwide based on a core protocol and consistent case definitions.

METHODS

We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the risk of intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital death among hospitalized patients with influenza and explored the role of patient-level covariates and country income level.

RESULTS

The data set included 73 121 patients hospitalized with respiratory illness in 22 countries, including 15 660 with laboratory-confirmed influenza. After adjusting for patient-level covariates we found a 7-fold increase in the risk of influenza-related intensive care unit admission in lower middle-income countries (LMICs), compared with high-income countries (P = .01). The risk of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death also increased by 4-fold in LMICs, though these differences were not statistically significant. We also find that influenza mortality increased significantly with older age and number of comorbid conditions. Across all severity outcomes studied and after controlling for patient characteristics, infection with influenza A/H1N1pdm09 was more severe than with A/H3N2.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides new information on influenza severity in underresourced populations, particularly those in LMICs.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of chronic cough, its risk factors and population attributable risk in the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study: a multinational cross-sectional study

Background

Chronic cough is a common respiratory symptom with an impact on daily activities and quality of life. Global prevalence data are scarce and derive mainly from European and Asian countries and studies with outcomes other than chronic cough. In this study, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of chronic cough across a large number of study sites as well as to identify its main risk factors using a standardised protocol and definition.

Methods

We analysed cross-sectional data from 33,983 adults (≥40 years), recruited between Jan 2, 2003 and Dec 26, 2016, in 41 sites (34 countries) from the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study. We estimated the prevalence of chronic cough for each site accounting for sampling design. To identify risk factors, we conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis within each site and then pooled estimates using random-effects meta-analysis. We also calculated the population attributable risk (PAR) associated with each of the identifed risk factors.

Findings

The prevalence of chronic cough varied from 3% in India (rural Pune) to 24% in the United States of America (Lexington,KY). Chronic cough was more common among females, both current and passive smokers, those working in a dusty job, those with a history of tuberculosis, those who were obese, those with a low level of education and those with hypertension or airflow limitation. The most influential risk factors were current smoking and working in a dusty job.

Interpretation

Our findings suggested that the prevalence of chronic cough varies widely across sites in different world regions. Cigarette smoking and exposure to dust in the workplace are its major risk factors.

Funding

Wellcome Trust.

Subacute Thyroiditis in Active COVID-19 Infection: A Report of Two Cases With a Systematic Review of the Literature

Subacute thyroiditis (SAT) is a self-limiting inflammatory condition of the thyroid gland with distinct symptoms and a predictable outcome. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, there have been multiple isolated reports of SAT either during the active viral illness or following recovery. Here, we report two such cases of COVID-19 infection presenting with SAT. A 65-year-old male presented with a two-week history of anterior neck pain, odynophagia, high-grade fever (38.9°C), sweating, palpitations, and tremulousness. At physical examination, the patient presented with a slightly increased heart rate and a tender and enlarged thyroid on palpation. Laboratory examination showed high C-reactive protein levels, with elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and thyroid function tests were suggestive of thyrotoxicosis. Ultrasonography showed a heterogeneous thyroid gland with ill-defined hypoechoic areas, and thyroid scintigraphy showed reduced uptake, confirming the diagnosis of SAT. In another case, a 52-year-old male presented with fever, cough, and myalgias, and was diagnosed with mild COVID-19 pneumonia, and managed conservatively. After two weeks, the patient had a recurrence of high-grade fever, odynophagia, palpitations, and tremors. Examination revealed tachycardia, hyperhidrosis, and a tender and enlarged thyroid on palpation. Thyroid function tests revealed low thyroid-stimulating hormone, with normal total T4 and total T3. Ultrasonography examination showed a heterogeneous thyroid gland with bilateral ill-defined hypoechoic areas. In our systematic review, including 103 SAT cases, it has been suggested that SAT should be recognized as an uncommon extra-pulmonary clinical manifestation of COVID-19 infection and clinicians need to be aware of the association. Pending larger multicentric studies, management of the condition has to be on a case-by-case basis.

Combination therapy of nitazoxanide with oseltamivir compared with oseltamivir in hospitalized patients with seasonal influenza

Antiviral combinations have been proposed as treatment for influenza in order to increase the antiviral activity by action at different sites of action as well as obviate the emergence of drug resistance to the commonly used antiviral agents like oseltamivir. Nitazoxanide has been found to exhibit anti-influenza viral activity with clinical benefit in a previous study. We recruited 242 cases of SARI, among whon 67 were confirmed to have influenza viral infection. In a randomized blinded fashion, 34 patients received a combination of nitazoxanide and oseltamivir whereas 33 cases received oseltamivir alone. Clinical parameters were followed in both groups and the nasal swabs were re-tested on day 6 for influenza positivity and the cycle threshold (CT) values. No significant differences were observed in terms of time for resolution of fever, other symptoms, and SOFA scores. Nine patients succumbed during the course of the illness that included three in the oseltamivir group and six in the combination group. All but one of those who expired had an underlying co-morbid illness. Our preliminary data suggest that the addition of nitazoxanide does not improve outcomes in hospitalized patients with influenza. Larger studies are recommended for statistically robust conclusions.

Defining anthropometric thresholds (mid-arm circumference and calf circumference) in older adults residing in the community: a cross-sectional analysis using data from the population representative Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI DAD)

OBJECTIVES

To identify factors associated with malnutrition (undernutrition and overnutrition) and determine appropriate cut-off values for mid-arm circumference (MAC) and calf circumference (CC) among community-dwelling Indian older adults.

DESIGN

Data from the first wave of harmonised diagnostic assessment of dementia for Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI-DAD) were used. Various sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, geriatric syndromes, childhood financial and health status were included. Anthropometric measurements included body mass index (BMI), MAC and CC.

SETTING

Nationally representative cohort study including 36 Indian states and union territories.

PARTICIPANTS

4096 older adults aged >60 years from LASI DAD.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcome variable was BMI, categorised as low (<18.5 kg/m2), normal (18.5-22.9 kg/m2) and high (>23 kg/m2). The cut-off values of MAC and CC were derived using ROC curve with BMI as the gold standard.

RESULTS

902 (weighted percentage 20.55%) had low BMI, 1742 (44.25%) had high BMI. Undernutrition was associated with age, wealth-quintile and impaired cognition, while overnutrition was associated with higher education, urban living and comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes and chronic heart disease. For CC, the optimal lower and upper cut-offs for males were 28.1 cm and >31.5 cm, respectively, while for females, the corresponding values were 26 cm and >29 cm. Similarly, the optimal lower and upper cut-offs for MAC in males were 23.9 cm and >26.9 cm, and for females, they were 22.5 cm and >25 cm.

CONCLUSION

Our study identifies a high BMI prevalence, especially among females, individuals with higher education, urban residents and those with comorbidities. We establish gender-specific MAC and CC cut-off values with significant implications for healthcare, policy and research. Tailored interventions can address undernutrition and overnutrition in older adults, enhancing standardised nutritional assessment and well-being.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Prevalence of dementia in India: National and state estimates from a nationwide study

INTRODUCTION

Prior estimates of dementia prevalence in India were based on samples from selected communities, inadequately representing the national and state populations.

METHODS

From the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI) we recruited a sample of adults ages 60+ and administered a rich battery of neuropsychological tests and an informant interview in 2018 through 2020. We obtained a clinical consensus rating of dementia status for a subsample (N = 2528), fitted a logistic model for dementia status on this subsample, and then imputed dementia status for all other LASI respondents aged 60+ (N = 28,949).

RESULTS

The estimated dementia prevalence for adults ages 60+ in India is 7.4%, with significant age and education gradients, sex and urban/rural differences, and cross-state variation.

DISCUSSION

An estimated 8.8 million Indians older than 60 years have dementia. The burden of dementia cases is unevenly distributed across states and subpopulations and may therefore require different levels of local planning and support.

HIGHLIGHTS

The estimated dementia prevalence for adults ages 60+ in India is 7.4%. About 8.8 million Indians older than 60 years live with dementia. Dementia is more prevalent among females than males and in rural than urban areas. Significant cross-state variation exists in dementia prevalence.

Guidelines for endobronchial ultrasound-transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA): Joint Indian Chest Society (ICS)/Indian Association for Bronchology (IAB) recommendations

Over the past decade, endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) has become an indispensable tool in the diagnostic armamentarium of the pulmonologist. As the expertise with EBUS-TBNA has evolved and several innovations have occurred, the indications for its use have expanded. However, several aspects of EBUS-TBNA are still not standardized. Hence, evidence-based guidelines are needed to optimize the diagnostic yield and safety of EBUS-TBNA. For this purpose, a working group of experts from India was constituted. A detailed and systematic search was performed to extract relevant literature pertaining to various aspects of EBUS-TBNA. The modified GRADE system was used for evaluating the level of evidence and assigning the strength of recommendations. The final recommendations were framed with the consensus of the working group after several rounds of online discussions and a two-day in-person meeting. These guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations encompassing indications of EBUS-TBNA, pre-procedure evaluation, sedation and anesthesia, technical and procedural aspects, sample processing, EBUS-TBNA in special situations, and training for EBUS-TBNA.

Age Differences in Comorbidities, Presenting Symptoms, and Outcomes of Influenza Illness Requiring Hospitalization: A Worldwide Perspective From the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

Background

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) was established in 2012 to conduct coordinated worldwide influenza surveillance. In this study, we describe underlying comorbidities, symptoms, and outcomes in patients hospitalized with influenza.

Methods

Between November 2018 and October 2019, GIHSN included 19 sites in 18 countries using a standardized surveillance protocol. Influenza infection was laboratory-confirmed with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. A multivariate logistic regression model was utilized to analyze the extent to which various risk factors predict severe outcomes.

Results

Of 16 022 enrolled patients, 21.9% had laboratory-confirmed influenza; 49.2% of influenza cases were A/H1N1pdm09. Fever and cough were the most common symptoms, although they decreased with age (P < .001). Shortness of breath was uncommon among those <50 years but increased with age (P < .001). Middle and older age and history of underlying diabetes or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were associated with increased odds of death and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and male sex and influenza vaccination were associated with lower odds. The ICU admissions and mortality occurred across the age spectrum.

Conclusions

Both virus and host factors contributed to influenza burden. We identified age differences in comorbidities, presenting symptoms, and adverse clinical outcomes among those hospitalized with influenza and benefit from influenza vaccination in protecting against adverse clinical outcomes. The GIHSN provides an ongoing platform for global understanding of hospitalized influenza illness.

Deep phenotyping and genomic data from a nationally representative study on dementia in India

The Harmonized Diagnostic Assessment of Dementia for the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI-DAD) is a nationally representative in-depth study of cognitive aging and dementia. We present a publicly available dataset of harmonized cognitive measures of 4,096 adults 60 years of age and older in India, collected across 18 states and union territories. Blood samples were obtained to carry out whole blood and serum-based assays. Results are included in a venous blood specimen datafile that can be linked to the Harmonized LASI-DAD dataset. A global screening array of 960 LASI-DAD respondents is also publicly available for download, in addition to neuroimaging data on 137 LASI-DAD participants. Altogether, these datasets provide comprehensive information on older adults in India that allow researchers to further understand risk factors associated with cognitive impairment and dementia.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Knowledge, attitude and practices towards seasonal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers

Background

Vaccination as a primary prevention strategy is a well-established public health policy for preventing influenza. Despite strong recommendation, vaccination coverage among health workers is still not satisfying. The intention of the current study is to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes and practices towards influenza vaccination among healthcare workers.

Materials and Methods

In this cross-sectional, single-centre study, 789 healthcare workers (out of total 1380) participated. Institutional ethical committee clearance was obtained before the study. It was conducted in October 2021. A structured questionnaire in the form of Google sheet was sent to all healthcare professionals (HCPs) affiliated with the institution. Data collected was tabulated using MS Excel and analysed using appropriate statistical tools.

Results

Of the 1380 approached, a total of 789 (57.17%) HCPs responded to the questionnaire. The overall vaccination coverage in the study population was 71.6%. The overall vaccination acceptance rate drops to 36.78% when those taken vaccine as a recommended pre-employment requisite and got never vaccinated again were excluded. Also, 88.21% of the respondents believed that influenza is a potentially dangerous disease and 93.16% believed that flu vaccination is effective against preventing influenza. Although 736 participants (93.28%) were aware that seasonal influenza vaccine is recommended for healthcare workers, irrespective of age and comorbidities, only 411 (52.1%) intended to take vaccine in the coming year. Also, 97.34% of the participants considered vaccine as safe.

Conclusion

Influenza vaccination coverage among healthcare workers is still at an unsatisfactory level. This is despite majority of the HCPs accepting that the vaccine is safe and preventive against influenza. Efforts are still needed to improve the coverage.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Proportionate clinical burden of respiratory diseases in Indian outdoor services and its relationship with seasonal transitions and risk factors: The results of SWORD survey

Background

The Global Burden of Disease data suggest that respiratory diseases contribute to high morbidity in India. However, the factors responsible for high morbidity are not quite clear. Therefore, the Seasonal Waves Of Respiratory Disorders (SWORD) study was planned to estimate the point prevalence due to respiratory diseases in Indian OPD services and its association with risk factors and change in seasons.

Methods

In this point prevalence observational multicenter study conducted during 2017–18, participating physicians recorded information of consecutive patients in response to a questionnaire. The study was conducted on four predetermined days representing transition of Indian seasons i.e., February (winter), May (summer), August (monsoon), and November (autumn).

Results

The eligible number of patients from across 302 sites in India was 25,177. The mean age of study population was 46.1±18.1 years, 14102(56.0%) were males and 11075(44.0%) females. The common diagnoses were: asthma(29.8%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD),15.6%, respiratory tract infections (RTIs),11.3%, and tuberculosis(8.7%). All these conditions showed significant seasonal trends (Asthma 31.4% autumn vs. 26.5% summer, COPD 21.1% winter vs. 8.1% summer, RTIs 13.3% winter vs. 4.3% summer, and tuberculosis 12.5% autumn vs. 4.1% summer, p<0.001 for each respectively). After adjustment for risk factors, asthma was significantly associated with exposure to molds (OR:1.12,CI:1.03–1.22), pet animals (OR:1.07,CI:1.01–1.14), recent-travel (OR:1.22,CI:1.13–1.32), and rain-wetting (OR:1.27,CI:1.15–1.40); and RTIs with rain-wetting (OR:1.53,CI:1.34–1.74), and recent-travel (OR:1.17,CI:1.05–1.30).

Conclusions

The SWORD study showed wide seasonal variations in outpatient attendance of patients with common respiratory conditions. Novel risk-factors associated with respiratory diseases were also identified.

Respiratory syncytial virus among children hospitalized with severe acute respiratory infection in Kashmir, a temperate region in northern India

Background

Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) are a leading cause of hospitalizations in children, especially due to viral pathogens. We studied the prevalence of respiratory viruses among children aged <5 years hospitalized with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Kashmir, India.

Methods

We conducted a prospective observational study in two tertiary care hospitals from October 2013 to September 2014, systematically enrolling two children aged <5 years with SARI per day. We defined SARI as history of fever or measured fever (≥38°C) and cough with onset in the last 7 days requiring hospitalization for children aged 3-59 months and as physician-diagnosed acute lower respiratory infection for children aged <3 months. Trained study staff screened children within 24 hours of hospitalization for SARI and collected clinical data and nasopharyngeal swabs from enrolled participants. We tested for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A and B, influenza viruses, rhinoviruses (HRV)/enteroviruses, adenovirus (AdV), bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) A and B, coronaviruses (OC43, NL65, C229E), and parainfluenza viruses (PIV) 1, 2, 3 and 4 using standardized duplex real-time polymerase chain reaction.

Results

Among 4548 respiratory illness admissions screened from October 2013 to September 2014, 1026 met the SARI case definition, and 412 were enrolled (ages = 5 days to 58 months; median = 12 months). Among enrolees, 256 (62%) were positive for any virus; RSV was the most commonly detected (n = 118, 29%) followed by HRV/enteroviruses (n = 88, 21%), PIVs (n = 31, 8%), influenza viruses (n = 18, 4%), BoV (n = 15, 4%), coronaviruses (n = 16, 4%), AdV (n = 14, 3%), and hMPV (n = 9, 2%). Fifty-four children had evidence of virus co-detection. Influenza-associated SARI was more common among children aged 1-5 years (14/18, 78%) while most RSV detections occurred in children <12 months (83/118, 70%). Of the RSV viruses typed (n = 116), the majority were type B (94, 80%). Phylogenetic analysis of G gene of RSV showed circulation of the BA9 genotype with 60bp nucleotide duplication.

Conclusions

Respiratory viruses, especially RSV, contributed to a substantial proportion of SARI hospitalizations among children <5 years in north India. These data can help guide clinicians on appropriate treatment and prevention strategies.

Indian Guidelines on Nebulization Therapy

Inhalational therapy, today, happens to be the mainstay of treatment in obstructive airway diseases (OADs), such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and is also in the present, used in a variety of other pulmonary and even non-pulmonary disorders. Hand-held inhalation devices may often be difficult to use, particularly for children, elderly, debilitated or distressed patients. Nebulization therapy emerges as a good option in these cases besides being useful in the home care, emergency room and critical care settings. With so many advancements taking place in nebulizer technology; availability of a plethora of drug formulations for its use, and the widening scope of this therapy; medical practitioners, respiratory therapists, and other health care personnel face the challenge of choosing appropriate inhalation devices and drug formulations, besides their rational application and use in different clinical situations. Adequate maintenance of nebulizer equipment including their disinfection and storage are the other relevant issues requiring guidance. Injudicious and improper use of nebulizers and their poor maintenance can sometimes lead to serious health hazards, nosocomial infections, transmission of infection, and other adverse outcomes. Thus, it is imperative to have a proper national guideline on nebulization practices to bridge the knowledge gaps amongst various health care personnel involved in this practice. It will also serve as an educational and scientific resource for healthcare professionals, as well as promote future research by identifying neglected and ignored areas in this field. Such comprehensive guidelines on this subject have not been available in the country and the only available proper international guidelines were released in 1997 which have not been updated for a noticeably long period of over two decades, though many changes and advancements have taken place in this technology in the recent past. Much of nebulization practices in the present may not be evidence-based and even some of these, the way they are currently used, may be ineffective or even harmful. Recognizing the knowledge deficit and paucity of guidelines on the usage of nebulizers in various settings such as inpatient, out-patient, emergency room, critical care, and domiciliary use in India in a wide variety of indications to standardize nebulization practices and to address many other related issues; National College of Chest Physicians (India), commissioned a National task force consisting of eminent experts in the field of Pulmonary Medicine from different backgrounds and different parts of the country to review the available evidence from the medical literature on the scientific principles and clinical practices of nebulization therapy and to formulate evidence-based guidelines on it. The guideline is based on all possible literature that could be explored with the best available evidence and incorporating expert opinions. To support the guideline with high-quality evidence, a systematic search of the electronic databases was performed to identify the relevant studies, position papers, consensus reports, and recommendations published. Rating of the level of the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendation was done using the GRADE system. Six topics were identified, each given to one group of experts comprising of advisors, chairpersons, convenor and members, and such six groups (A-F) were formed and the consensus recommendations of each group was included as a section in the guidelines (Sections I to VI). The topics included were: A. Introduction, basic principles and technical aspects of nebulization, types of equipment, their choice, use, and maintenance B. Nebulization therapy in obstructive airway diseases C. Nebulization therapy in the intensive care unit D. Use of various drugs (other than bronchodilators and inhaled corticosteroids) by nebulized route and miscellaneous uses of nebulization therapy E. Domiciliary/Home/Maintenance nebulization therapy; public & health care workers education, and F. Nebulization therapy in COVID-19 pandemic and in patients of other contagious viral respiratory infections (included later considering the crisis created due to COVID-19 pandemic). Various issues in different sections have been discussed in the form of questions, followed by point-wise evidence statements based on the existing knowledge, and recommendations have been formulated.

Vitamin D Levels and Length of Hospitalization in Indian Patients With COVID-19: A Single-Center Prospective Study

Introduction

The role of vitamin D deficiency in increasing susceptibility or modifying outcomes in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) illness is unclear, and data about the association is scant in low- and middle-income countries. We set out to investigate any correlation between baseline vitamin D status and the length of hospital stay in laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 patients in India.

Methods

Two hundred patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring admission in a North Indian 1200-bedded tertiary care hospital were recruited prospectively from November 2020 to March 2021. Baseline serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels were measured within 24 hours of admission using chemiluminescent immunoassay. Patients were managed as per hospital management protocol for COVID-19. The primary outcome was the length of hospital stay; secondary outcomes were comparative clinical severity between two groups, rate of requirement of mechanical ventilation and/or non-invasive ventilation (NIV), and mortality. Vitamin D deficiency (VDD) was defined as baseline vitamin D levels of <30 ng/ml.

Results 

Of the 200 recruited patients, 57.5% (n = 115) patients were vitamin D deficient, and the overall median length of hospital stay was around 12 days (IQR: 8-15 days). There was no statistically significant difference in the length of hospital stay between patients with normal serum vitamin D (VDS) and those with VDD, median LOS being 12 days (95% CI: 10, 12 days) in VDD cases and 11 days (95% CI: 10,13 days) in VDS cases (p = 0.176). No association between baseline 25(OH)D and any of the secondary outcomes could be established.

Conclusions

In Indian patients, baseline vitamin D levels are not associated with the length of hospital stay, need for mechanical ventilation, or mortality.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparison of clinical, biochemical, and polysomnographic parameters between obese and nonobese obstructive sleep apnea

Background:

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) occurs in both obese and nonobese individuals. This study was designed to compare clinical, metabolic profile, and polysomnographic parameters among obese and nonobese OSA patients.

Material and Methods:

This cross-sectional retro-prospective study involved 148 OSA patients. OSA patients were classified as nonobese (body mass index [BMI] <27.5 kg/m²) and obese (BMI ≥27.5 kg/m²) to determine the influence of BMI on its risks, clinical, metabolic, and polysomnographic parameters. For statistical comparisons, continuous variables were analyzed by Student’s t-test and categorical variables by Chi-square.

Results:

Of 148 patients, 106 patients were of a retrospective group and 42 in the prospective group. 116 patients were obese and 32 were nonobese with a mean BMI of 33.66 ± 5.3 versus. 25.17 ± 2.2 kg/m² respectively. Female sex (70.7% vs. 43.4%), larger neck circumference (37.99 ± 3.93 vs. 33.67 ± 5.5 cm), loud snoring (94.8% vs. 81.3%), excessive daytime sleepiness (53.4% vs. 9.4%), fatigability (94.8% vs. 75%), high Epworth Sleepiness Scale score (16% vs. 8%), and hypertension (77.6% vs. 46.9%) were significantly (P < 0.05) more common among obese OSA patients while as smoking and sedative use was more prevalent among nonobese OSA group. However, no significant difference in median apnea-hypopnea index and severity of OSA between obese and nonobese group was observed. At the same time, the median oxygen desaturation index was significantly higher in obese patients (26.1 vs. 12.7, P = 0.005).

Conclusion:

Nonobese OSA patients depicted less severe disease symptoms and thus require high index of suspicion for early identification due to associated cardiovascular risk.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mortality outcomes associated with invasive aspergillosis among acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patient population

BACKGROUND

Literature regarding trends of mortality, and complications of aspergillosis infection among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is limited.

METHODS

Data from the National Readmissions Database (NRD) that constitutes 49.1% of the stratified sample of all hospitals in the United States (US), representing more than 95% of the national population were analyzed for hospitalizations with aspergillosis among AECOPD. Predictors and trends related to aspergillosis in AECOPD were evaluated. A Linear p-trend was used to assess the trends.

RESULTS

Out of the total 7,282,644 index hospitalizations for AECOPD (mean age 69.17 ± 12.04years, 55.3% females), 8209 (11.2/10,000) with primary diagnosis of invasive aspergillosis were recorded in the NRD for 2013-2018. Invasive aspergillosis was strongly associated with mortality (OR 4.47, 95%CI 4.02-4.97, p < 0.001) among AECOPD patients. Malignancy and organ transplant status were predominant predictors of developing aspergillosis among AECOPD patients. The IA-AECOPD group had higher rates of multi-organ manifestations including ACS (3.7% vs 0.44%; p-value0.001), AF (20% vs 18.4%; p-value0.001), PE (4.79% vs1.87%; p-value0.001), AKI (22.3% vs17.5%; p-value0.001), ICU admission (16.5% vs11.9%; p-value0.001), and MV (22.3% vs7.31%; p-value0.001) than the AECOPD group. The absolute yearly trend for mortality of aspergillosis was steady (linear p-trend 0.22) while the yearly rate of IA-AECOPD had decreased from 15/10,000 in 2013 to 9/10,000 in 2018 (linear p-trend 0.02).

INTERPRETATION

Aspergillosis was related with high mortality among AECOD hospitalizations. There has been a significant improvement in the yearly rates of aspergillosis while the mortality trend was steady among aspergillosis subgroups. Improved risk factor management through goal-directed approach may improve clinical outcomes.

Obesity, A Risk Factor for Mortality in SARS CoV-2 Infection: A Narrative Systematic Review

SARS CoV-2 is a β-coronavirus responsible for the current COVID-19 pandemic. Although there is increase severity and mortality described in the elderly population and people with co-morbidities, all age groups are susceptible to COVID-19. Recent data showed that obesity has also emerged as a significant risk factor for COVID-19 mortality. As per the WHO, most of the world's population lives in countries where obesity is highly prevalent. In this context, we aimed to review various studies that showed obesity as an independent risk factor for mortality in SARS CoV-2 infection. We followed the PRISMA guidelines to search for two databases including PubMed and Google Scholar using the key terms “COVID-19, OBES* and MORTALITY,” SARS CoV-2, OBES* and MORTALITY” “COVID-19, OBESITY, and MORTALITY,” SARS Cov-2, OBESITY and MORTALITY,” respectively, up to August 3, 2020. Twelve studies were finally included in this review after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria. All 12 studies included in the review consistently showed that obesity is a risk factor for mortality in patients with SARS CoV-2 infection. These studies have also shown evidence that obesity leads to increased hospitalization, ICU admission, increased need for mechanical ventilation, and poor prognosis among patients with SARS CoV-2 infection. Obesity is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients infected with this novel coronavirus. Appropriate triage, monitoring, and vigilance are required while dealing with individuals with obesity with SARS CoV2 infection, especially in the young obese population. More epidemiological studies need to be done taking BMI also into consideration in COVID-19 patients to find the exact cause of increased severity and mortality and develop appropriate preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Prevalence and predictors of pulmonary embolism in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background:

The prevalence of pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) varies over a wide range. Early detection and treatment of PE in AECOPD is a key to improve patient outcome. The purpose of the study was to investigate the prevalence and predictors of PE in patients of AECOPD in a high burden region of North India.

Materials and Methods:

This prospective study included patients of AECOPD with no obvious cause of exacerbation on initial evaluation. Apart from routine workup, the participants underwent assessment of D-dimer, compression ultrasound and venous Doppler ultrasound of the lower limbs and pelvic veins, and a multidetector computed tomography pulmonary angiography.

Results:

A total of 100 patients of AECOPD with unknown etiology were included. PE as a possible cause of AE-COPD was observed in 14% of patients. Among the participants with PE, 63% (n = 9) had a concomitant presence of lower extremity deep venous thrombosis. Hemoptysis and chest pain were significantly higher in patients of AECOPD with PE ([35.7% vs. 7%, P = 0.002] and [92.9% vs. 38.4%, P = 0.001]). Likelihood of PE was significantly higher in patients who presented with tachycardia, tachypnea, respiratory alkalosis (PaCO2 <45 mmHg and pH >7.45), and hypotension. No difference was observed between the two groups in terms of in-hospital mortality, age, sex distribution, and risk factors for embolism except for the previous history of venous thromboembolism (35.7% vs. 12.8% P = 0.03).

Conclusion:

PE was probably responsible for AECOPD in 14% of patients with no obvious cause on initial assessment. Patients who present with chest pain, hemoptysis, tachypnea, tachycardia, and respiratory alkalosis should be particularly screened for PE.

Trends in Incidence, and Mortality of Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in the United States Emergency Department (2010-2018)

Literature regarding trends of incidence, mortality, and complications of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the emergency departments (ED) is limited. What are trends of COPD exacerbation in ED? Data were obtained from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) that constitutes a 20% sample of hospital-owned EDs and inpatient sample in the US. All ED encounters were included in the analysis. Complications of AECOPD were obtained by using ICD codes. Out of 1.082 billion ED encounters, 5,295,408 (mean age 63.31 ± 12.63 years, females 55%) presented with COPD exacerbation. Among these patients, 353,563(6.7%) had AECOPD-plus (features of pulmonary embolism, acute heart failure and/or pneumonia) while 4,941,845 (93.3%) had exacerbation without associated features or precipitating factors which we grouped as AECOPD. The AECOPD-plus group was associated with statistically significantly higher proportion of cardiovascular complications including AF (5.6% vs 3.5%; p < 0.001), VT/VF (0.14% vs 0.06%; p < 0.001), STEMI (0.22% vs 0.11%; p < 0.001) and NSTEMI (0.65% vs 0.2%; p < 0.001). The in-hospital mortality rates were greater in the AECOPD-plus population (0.7% vs 0.1%; p < 0.001). The incidence of both AECOPD and AECOPD-plus had worsened (p-trend 0.004 and 0.0003) and the trend of mortality had improved (p-trend 0.0055 and 0.003, respectively). The prevalence of smoking for among all COPD patients had increased (p-value 0.004), however, the prevalence trend of smoking among AECOPD groups was static over the years 2010-2018. There was an increasing trend of COPD exacerbation in conjunction with smoking; however, mortality trends improved significantly. Moreover, the rising burden of AECOPD would suggest improvement in diagnostics and policy making regarding management.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Therapeutic Approaches in Modulating the Inflammatory and Immunological Response in Patients With Sepsis, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, and Pancreatitis: An Expert Opinion Review

Immunomodulation has long been an adjunct approach in treating critically ill patients with sepsis, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and acute pancreatitis (AP). Hyperactive immune response with immunopathogenesis leads to organ dysfunction and alters the clinical outcomes in critically ill. Though the immune response in the critically ill might have been overlooked, it has gathered greater attention during this novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Modulating hyperactive immune response, the cytokine storm, especially with steroids, has shown to improve the outcomes in COVID-19 patients. In this review, we find that immune response pathogenesis in critically ill patients with sepsis, ARDS, and AP is nearly similar. The use of immunomodulators such as steroids, broad-spectrum serine protease inhibitors such as ulinastatin, thymosin alpha, intravenous immunoglobulins, and therapies such as CytoSorb and therapeutic plasma exchange may help in improving the clinical outcomes in these conditions. As the experience of the majority of physicians in using such therapeutics may be limited, we provide our expert comments regarding immunomodulation to optimize outcomes in patients with sepsis/septic shock, ARDS, and AP.

Gain-of-function Tibetan PHD2D4E;C127S variant suppresses monocyte function: A lesson in inflammatory response to inspired hypoxia

Background

We have previously described an evolutionarily selected Tibetan prolyl hydroxylase-2 (PHD2^D4E;C127S) variant that degrades the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIFα) more efficiently and protects these highlanders from hypoxia-triggered elevation in haemoglobin concentration. High altitude is known to cause acute mountain sickness (AMS) and high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE) in a section of rapidly ascending non-acclimatised lowlanders. These morbidities are often accompanied by inflammatory response and exposure to hypobaric hypoxia is presumed to be the principal causative agent. We have investigated whether PHD2^D4E;C127S variant is associated with prevention of hypoxia-mediated inflammatory milieu in Tibetan highlanders and therefore identify a potential target to regulate inflammation.

Methods

We genotyped the Tibetans using DNA isolated from whole blood. Thereafter immunophenotying was performed on PBMCs from homozygous PHD2^D4E;C127S and PHD2^WT individuals using flow cytometry. RNA isolated from these individuals was used to evaluate the peripheral level of important transcripts associated with immune as well as hypoxia response employing the nCounter technology. The ex-vivo findings were validated by generating monocytic cell lines (U937 cell line) expressing PHD2^D4E;C127S and PHD2^WT variants post depletion of endogenous PHD2. We had also collected whole blood samples from healthy travellers and travellers afflicted with AMS and HAPE to evaluate the significance of our ex-vivo and in vitro findings. Hereafter, we also attempted to resolve hypoxia-triggered inflammation in vitro as well as in vivo by augmenting the function of PHD2 using alpha-ketoglutarate (αKG), a co-factor of PHD2.

Findings

We report that homozygous PHD2^D4E;C127S highlanders harbour less inflammatory and patrolling monocytes in circulation as compared to Tibetan PHD2^WT highlanders. In response to in vitro hypoxia, secretion of IL6 and IL1β from PHD2^D4E;C127S monocytes, and their chemotactic response compared to the PHD2^WT are compromised, corresponding to the down-modulated expression of related signalling molecules RELA, JUN, STAT1, ATF2 and CXCR4. We verified these functional outcomes in monocytic U937 cell line engineered to express PHD2^D4E;C127S and confirmed the down-modulation of the signalling molecules at protein level under hypoxia. In contrast, non-Tibetan sojourners with AMS and HAPE at high altitude (3,600 m above sea level) displayed significant increase in these inflammatory parameters. Our data henceforth underline the role of gain-of-function of PHD2 as the rate limiting factor to harness hyper-activation of monocytes in hypoxic environment. Therefore upon pre-treatment with αKG, we observed diminished inflammatory response of monocytes in vitro and reduction in leukocyte infiltration to the lungs in mice exposed to normobaric hypoxia.

Interpretation

Our report suggests that gain-of-function PHD2 ^D4E;C127S variant can therefore protect against inflammation elicited by hypobaric hypoxia. Augmentation of PHD2 activity therefore may be an important method to alleviate inflammatory response to inspired hypoxia.

Funding

This study is supported by the Department of Biotechnology, Government of India.

Spirometric abnormalities in patients with sleep-related breathing disorders

Introduction:

Patients with sleep-related breathing disorders (SRBD) have various structural and functional abnormalities of the upper airway during sleep which may get reflected on their pulmonary function tests. The aim of the study was to find the correlation between the spirometric indices and snoring, grades of apnea–hypoapnea index (AHI), and STOPBANG. There is scarcity of literature showing correlation of STOP BANG with spirometric variables.

Material and Methods:

Patient with SRBD fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled. The pretest probability sleep score STOPBANG and polysomnography (PSG) were calculated for all the patients. Spirometric indices like forced expiratory volume in one sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), postbronchodilator ratio FEVI/FVC (PBDR), and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) were studied. Their association with snoring, different grades of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and STOPBANG were evaluated using statistical analysis.

Results:

A total of 70 patients were enrolled. Abnormalities of spirometric indices were found to be common in patients with SRBD but their association with snoring, grades of OSA, and STOPBANG were not statistically significant. There is no statistically significant correlation between body mass index (BMI) and grades of AHI.

Conclusion:

This study found no statistically significant correlation between spirometric parameters and STOPBANG and degree of AHI. Primary care physicians should be aware that obstructive lung disease does coexist with the sleep disordered breathing but as per this study, their statistically significant association needs further validation.

Survival predictors of interstitial lung disease in India: Follow-up of Interstitial Lung Disease India registry

Background:

Predictors of survival for interstitial lung disease (ILD) in the Indian population have not been studied. The primary objective of the study was to assess the Modified-Gender Age and Physiology (M-GAP) score to predict survival in patients with ILD seen in clinical practice. We also analyzed the role of demographic and radiological characteristics in predicting the survival of patients with ILD.

Materials and Methods:

In the ILD India registry, data were collected from 27 centers across 19 cities in India between March 2012 and June 2015. A single follow-up was conducted at 18 centers who agreed to participate in the follow-up in 2017. M-GAP score (range 0–5) was calculated with the following variables: age (≤60 years 0, 61–65 years 1, and >65 years 2), gender (female 0, male 1), and forced vital capacity% (>75% 0, 50%–75% 1, and >75% 2). A score of 0–3 and score of 4 and 5 were classified into Stage 1 and 2, respectively. Other predictors of survival, such as the history of tuberculosis, smoking, and the presence of honeycombing on computed tomography scan, were also evaluated.

Results:

Nine hundred and seven patients were contacted in 2017. Among them, 309 patients were lost to follow-up; 399 were alive and 199 had died. M-GAP was significantly associated with survival. Similarly, other predictors of survival were ability to perform spirometry (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34–0.72), past history of tuberculosis (HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.07–2.29), current or past history of smoking (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.06–2.16), honeycombing (HR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.29–2.55), a diagnosis of connective tissue disease -ILD (HR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.22–0.76), and sarcoidosis (HR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.08–0.77).

Conclusion:

In a subgroup of patients with newly diagnosed ILD enrolled in ILD India registry and who were available for follow-up, M-GAP score predicted survival. Honeycombing at the time of diagnosis, along with accurate history of smoking, and previous history of tuberculosis were useful indices for predicting survival.

Conventional flexible bronchoscopy during the COVID pandemic: A consensus statement from the Indian Association for Bronchology

During the times of the ongoing COVID pandemic, aerosol-generating procedures such as bronchoscopy have the potential of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 to the healthcare workers. The decision to perform bronchoscopy during the COVID pandemic should be taken judiciously. Over the years, the indications for bronchoscopy in the clinical practice have expanded. Experts at the Indian Association for Bronchology perceived the need to develop a concise statement that would assist a bronchoscopist in performing bronchoscopy during the COVID pandemic safely. The current Indian Association for Bronchology Consensus Statement provides specific guidelines including triaging, indications, bronchoscopy area, use of personal protective equipment, patient preparation, sedation and anesthesia, patient monitoring, bronchoscopy technique, sample collection and handling, bronchoscope disinfection, and environmental disinfection concerning the coronavirus disease-2019 situation. The suggestions provided herewith should be adopted in addition to the national bronchoscopy guidelines that were published recently. This statement summarizes the essential aspects to be considered for the performance of bronchoscopy in COVID pandemic, to ensure safety for both for patients and healthcare personnel.

Post-COVID lung fibrosis: The tsunami that will follow the earthquake

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has already infected in excess of 50 million people worldwide and resulted in 1.2 million deaths. While the majority of those infected will not have long-term pulmonary sequelae, 5%–10% will develop severe COVID-19 pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The natural history of these severely affected patients is unclear at present, but using our knowledge of closely related coronavirus outbreaks like severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (SARS) and middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS), we would hypothesize that the majority will stabilize or improve over time although some patients will progress to advanced lung fibrosis or post-COVID interstitial lung disease (PC-ILD). Unlike the SARS and MERS outbreaks which affected only a few thousands, the sheer scale of the present pandemic suggests that physicians are likely to encounter large numbers of patients (potentially hundreds of thousands) with PC-ILD. In this review, we discuss the pathogenesis, natural history, and radiology of such patients and touch on clinical, laboratory, and radiographic clues at presentation which might help predict the future development of lung fibrosis. Finally, we discuss the responsible use of antifibrotic drugs such as pirfenidone, nintedanib, and some newer antifibrotics, still in the pipeline. The biological rationale of these drugs and the patient groups where they may have a plausible role will be discussed. We conclude by stressing the importance of careful longitudinal follow-up of multiple cohorts of post-COVID survivors with serial lung function and imaging. This will eventually help to determine the natural history, course, and response to therapy of these patients.

Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The association of air pollution with multiple adverse health outcomes is becoming well established, but its negative economic impact is less well appreciated. It is important to elucidate this impact for the states of India.

METHODS

We estimated exposure to ambient particulate matter pollution, household air pollution, and ambient ozone pollution, and their attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years in every state of India as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We estimated the economic impact of air pollution as the cost of lost output due to premature deaths and morbidity attributable to air pollution for every state of India, using the cost-of-illness method.

FINDINGS

1·67 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·42-1·92) deaths were attributable to air pollution in India in 2019, accounting for 17·8% (15·8-19·5) of the total deaths in the country. The majority of these deaths were from ambient particulate matter pollution (0·98 million [0·77-1·19]) and household air pollution (0·61 million [0·39-0·86]). The death rate due to household air pollution decreased by 64·2% (52·2-74·2) from 1990 to 2019, while that due to ambient particulate matter pollution increased by 115·3% (28·3-344·4) and that due to ambient ozone pollution increased by 139·2% (96·5-195·8). Lost output from premature deaths and morbidity attributable to air pollution accounted for economic losses of US$28·8 billion (21·4-37·4) and $8·0 billion (5·9-10·3), respectively, in India in 2019. This total loss of $36·8 billion (27·4-47·7) was 1·36% of India's gross domestic product (GDP). The economic loss as a proportion of the state GDP varied 3·2 times between the states, ranging from 0·67% (0·47-0·91) to 2·15% (1·60-2·77), and was highest in the low per-capita GDP states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Delhi had the highest per-capita economic loss due to air pollution, followed by Haryana in 2019, with 5·4 times variation across all states.

INTERPRETATION

The high burden of death and disease due to air pollution and its associated substantial adverse economic impact from loss of output could impede India's aspiration to be a $5 trillion economy by 2024. Successful reduction of air pollution in India through state-specific strategies would lead to substantial benefits for both the health of the population and the economy.

FUNDING

UN Environment Programme; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.