Racial disparities in disease-specific mortality and surgical management of patients with ductal carcinoma in situ with microinvasion

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Given persistent racial disparities in breast cancer outcomes, this study explores racial differences in disease-specific mortality and surgical management among patients with microinvasive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS-MI).

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program was queried for patients aged 18+ years with DCIS-MI between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018. The study cohort was divided into non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) patients. Disease-specific mortality was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 3400 patients were identified, of which 569 (16.7%) were NHB and 2831 (83.3%) were NHW. Compared with NHW patients, NHB patients had more positive lymph nodes (7.6% vs. 3.9% p < 0.001). In addition, NHB women were more likely to undergo axillary lymph node dissection (6.0% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.044) and receive chemotherapy (11.8% vs. 7.2%, p < 0.001). There were no racial differences in breast surgery type (p = 0.168), reconstructive surgery (p = 0.362), or radiation therapy (p = 0.342). Overall, NHB patients had worse disease-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-4.14) with mortality risks diverging from NHW women after 3 years (6 years rate ratio [RR] 2.12, 95% CI: 1.13-4.34; 9 years RR 2.32, 95% CI: 1.24-4.35).

CONCLUSIONS

NHB women with DCIS-MI present with higher nodal disease burden and experience worse disease-specific mortality than NHW women.

Disparities in Survival and NCCN Guideline-Concordant Care in Patients With Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma

BACKGROUND

Based on the NCCN Guidelines for Soft Tissue Sarcoma (STS), treatment of extremity STS (ESTS) includes radiation therapy (RT) and surgical resection for tumors that are high-grade and >5 cm. ​​The aim of this study was to describe the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES), concordance with NCCN Guidelines recommendations, and outcomes in patients with ESTS.

METHODS

Patients with ESTS diagnosed from 2006 through 2018 were identified in SEER registries. The analytic cohort was restricted to patients with high-grade tumors >5 cm without nodal or distant metastases who received limb-sparing surgery. Patient demographics and tumor characteristics associated with receipt of RT were analyzed using adjusted regression analyses. Kaplan-Meier curves and adjusted accelerated failure time models were used to examine disparities in cancer-specific survival.

RESULTS

Of 2,249 patients, 29.0% (n=648) received neoadjuvant RT, 49.7% (n=1,111) received adjuvant or intraoperative RT, and 21.3% (n=476) did not receive RT. In adjusted analyses, lower nSES was associated with lower likelihood of receiving RT (odds ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.57-0.87]; P<.001). Low nSES was associated with worse cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.01-1.40]; P=.04). Race and ethnicity were not significant predictors of receipt of RT or cancer-specific survival in the fully adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients from lower nSES areas were less likely to receive NCCN Guideline-recommended RT for their ESTS and had worse cancer-specific survival. Efforts to better define and resolve disparities in the treatment and survival of patients with ESTS are warranted.

Trends in utilization of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy among different age, racial and ethnic groups

Background

The use of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has increased over the last two decades with variations in the frequency of reconstruction. The objective of this cohort study is to elucidate the use of CPM and reconstruction among underrepresented racial and ethnic groups and women over 65 years.

Methods

Women over 18 years, diagnosed with stages I to III breast cancer who underwent mastectomy from 2004-2017 were identified in the National Cancer Database (NCDB) and grouped into CPM vs. non-CPM. Multivariable analyses were used to examine the associations between CPM and reconstruction with sociodemographic and clinical factors.

Results

A total of 571,649 patients were identified. Patients who underwent CPM were under 50 years (45.9%), White (88.4%) and with private insurance (73.5%). On multivariable analysis, women over 65 years [odds ratio (OR): 0.18, P<0.001], non-White (Black, OR: 0.56, P<0.001) and without private insurance (uninsured, OR: 0.50, P<0.001) had decreased odds of CPM. Women over 65 years (OR: 0.11, P<0.001), non-White (Asian/Pacific Islander, OR: 0.58, P<0.001) and without private insurance (Medicaid, OR: 0.41, P<0.001) had decreased odds of reconstruction.

Conclusions

Non-White women and women over the age of 65 years were less likely to have CPM or reconstruction than their White counterparts from 2004 to 2017. Research is needed to understand factors impacting decision-making.

County characteristics associated with refusing breast cancer surgery: Evidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program

BACKGROUND

Individuals' communities impact cancer disparities and are intimately related to social determinants of health. Studies show that personal factors affect treatment refusals for a potentially curable cancer, but few studies have investigated whether community-based characteristics affect the receipt of surgery.

METHODS

We used Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program registries from 2010 to 2015 to examine differences in rates of surgery refusal among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer. The community factor measures were based on county-level factors. Sociodemographic and community differences were analyzed using Pearson's χ2 tests and analysis of variance. Multivariate logistic regression of predictors of surgery refusal and the Cox proportional hazard model of disease-specific mortality were performed.

RESULTS

Surgery refusers among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic all races lived in counties with lower rates of educational attainment, median family and household income, and higher rates of poverty, unemployment, foreign-born, language isolation, urban population, and women more than 40 years old having mammography in last 2 years. Multivariate analysis shows surgery refusal rates increased in counties having a high percentage of urban population and declined in counties with an increased percentage of less than high school level education, unemployment, and median household income. Breast cancer-specific mortality increased significantly with surgery refusal.

CONCLUSION

Residence in counties with the lowest socioeconomic status and disproportionately populated by racial and ethnic minorities is associated with surgery refusal. Given the high mortality associated with refusing surgery, culturally sensitive education on the benefits of care may be appropriate.

Missing Components of Receptor Status Among Women With Invasive Breast Cancer

Importance

There are well-known differences in patient outcomes and effective therapeutic options across subtypes of breast cancer (BC), defined by the status of estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and erb-B2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2 (ERBB2 [formerly HER2]) expression, making testing for these receptors part of the routine workup for all patients with a diagnosis of invasive BC. Despite its importance, this information is missing in some BC cases.

Objective

To identify female patients with BC without record of testing for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, or ERBB2 status, defined as missing components of receptor status (MCRS).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program of 18 population-based registries from women with a diagnosis of invasive BC (excluding death certificate-only and autopsy cases) from January 2012 to December 2016. The final analyses were completed in February 2022.

Main Outcome and Measure

The primary outcome was MCRS. Those with MCRS were summarized by age, race, stage at diagnosis, reporting source, primary payer, and geography. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for MCRS.

Results

Overall, 321 913 patients with invasive BC were included (1928 [1%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 28 173 [9%] Asian or Pacific Islander, 36 357 [11%] Black, and 252 447 [78%] White individuals); of these, 15 250 (4.7%) had MCRS. The multivariable model showed that the odds of MCRS were higher in women 80 years or older compared with those younger than 49 years (aOR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.65-1.88), Black compared with White women (aOR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00-1.16), and those with distant stage or unknown/unstaged cancer at diagnosis compared with a local stage at diagnosis (aOR, 3.33; 95% CI, 3.17-3.50; and aOR, 19.39; 95% CI, 18.15-20.72; respectively). With hospital inpatient/outpatient or clinic as the reference group, cases reported by laboratory only, nursing/convalescent home/hospice, and a physician's office were more likely to have MCRS (aOR, 1.42; 95% CI; 1.28-1.60; aOR, 9.37; 95% CI, 6.03-14.53; and aOR, 2.32; 95% CI, 2.06-2.62; respectively). Adjusted odds of MCRS were higher for the categories of insured/no specifics and insurance status unknown compared with those who were insured. The adjusted odds of MCRS were higher in rural compared with urban areas (aOR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.15).

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this cross-sectional study of women with a diagnosis of invasive BC suggest that despite a standard of care recommended by all expert guidelines, there needs to be greater focus on hormone receptor and ERBB2 testing in all women with invasive BC. The results of this study may help clinicians, public health practitioners, and policymakers target affected populations to minimize or eliminate this critical health disparity and help save more lives.

The association between internet use to obtain health information and receiving three doses of the Hepatitis B vaccine in a multi-ethnic population in Ohio

While most cancer incidence and mortality rates are decreasing, liver cancer rates are increasing. The Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) vaccine prevents liver cancer, although not everyone receives all three doses of the vaccine. This study examined the association between using the internet as the primary source of health information and receiving three HBV vaccine doses among a multi-ethnic population in Ohio. From May 2017 through February 2018, participants in the Community Initiative Towards Improving Equity and Health Status (CITIES) study reported their primary health information source and if they received three HBV vaccine doses. A multivariable logistic regression model was fit using backwards selection. Overall, 26.6% received three HBV vaccine doses. After adjusting for race/ethnicity and education, the association between internet use and receiving three HBV vaccine doses was not significant (p-value = 0.73). In the process of model-building, race/ethnicity and educational attainment were identified as factors associated with completing the HBV vaccine; Hispanics (OR = 0.35; 95% CI = 0.17, 0.69) and African Americans (OR = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35, 0.81) had lower odds of receiving three doses compared to whites; compared to college graduates, those with a high school diploma or less also had lower odds (OR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.21, 0.52). This study suggests no association between internet use and complete HBV vaccination; however, associations between both race/ethnicity and educational attainment and HBV vaccine completion were identified. Future research should consider factors that stem from racial/ethnic and educational disparities that may influence adherence to HBV vaccination (i.e., healthcare system mistrust, access to accurate health information).

Factors Related to Human Papillomavirus Positivity among Oral Cavity and Pharynx Cancers from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program Data

BACKGROUND

As human papillomavirus positive (HPV+) oral cavity and pharynx cancer (OCPC) incidence increases significantly, our objective was to determine whether selected sociodemographic and clinical factors were associated with HPV+ OCPCs overall and by oropharyngeal and non-oropharyngeal sites.

METHODS

Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program data were used in this study. Specifically, univariate and logistic regression models were used to examine the relationships between HPV+ and HPV- OCPC cases and age, sex, race, ethnicity, marital status, factors of neighborhood socioeconomic status (i.e., nSES/Yost index) and rurality/urbanity, first malignancy status, histology, reporting source, stage at diagnosis, and OCPC anatomic site. The same approach was used to identify risk factors for HPV positivity for oropharyngeal and non-oropharyngeal OCPCs separately.

RESULTS

In all OCPCs, cases that were male, <80 years old, lived in the four highest nSES categories, diagnosed with a non-"gum and other mouth" OCPC (ref = hypopharynx), not locally staged at diagnosis, and a first malignancy had higher odds of being HPV+. Cases that were American Indian/Alaska Native and Asian or Pacific Islander (ref = White), Spanish-Hispanic-Latino ethnicity, non-married/partnered, and not reported by a hospital/clinic had lower odds of being HPV+. Associations were maintained in oropharyngeal OCPCs and only age and race remained significant for non-oropharyngeal OCPCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Sociodemographic and clinical differences in HPV+ and HPV- OCPC, overall and for (non)oropharyngeal, cases exist.

IMPACT

Identification of OCPC and (non)oropharyngeal risk factors for HPV positivity may assist in discovering high-risk groups that should receive enhanced public health efforts to reduce the U.S. OCPC burden.

Examining racial differences in treatment and survival among patients with Paget's disease of the breast

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to evaluate racial differences in treatment (ie, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation) and survival among patients with Paget's disease of the breast in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result program.

METHODS

Women >18 years old diagnosed with localized or regional Paget's disease between January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result program were included. The cohort was divided into Black and White patients. Univariable analysis compared the groups. Using propensity score matching, Black and White patients were nearest matched (1:2) on age at diagnosis; Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result summary stage; surgery; chemotherapy; and year of diagnosis. The log-rank test evaluated the matched sample's overall survival and disease-specific survival.

RESULTS

Of the 1,181 patients, the racial distribution was 1,049 (88.8%) White and 132 (11.2%) Black. A higher percentage of Black women were Medicaid insured (Black 25.8% vs White 11.1%), lived in neighborhoods with low socioeconomic status (Black 53.0% vs White 25.4%), and had regional disease than White women (Black 41.7% vs White 29%). There were no racial differences in receipt of radiation therapy (P = .90), breast surgery (P = .23), or axillary surgery (P = .25). Black patients were more likely to receive chemotherapy (Black 34.8% vs White 26.3% P = .038). In the propensity matched cohort, Black patients had a worse overall survival (P < .005) and disease-specific survival (P = .05) than White patients.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of patients with Paget's disease, despite differences in sociodemographic factors, there were no disparities in locoregional treatment. However, on matched analysis, Black patients had a worse overall survival and disease-specific survival than their White counterparts.

Associations between cancer history, social distancing behaviors, and loneliness in adults during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, enforced social distancing initiatives have highlighted differences in social distancing practices and the resulting loneliness in various populations. The objective of this study was to examine how cancer history and social distancing practices relate to loneliness during COVID-19.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Participants from previous studies (N = 32,989) with permission to be re-contacted were invited to complete a survey online, by phone, or by mail between June and November 2020. Linear and logistic regression models were used to determine the associations between cancer history, social distancing, and loneliness.

RESULTS

Among the included participants (n = 5729), the average age was 56.7 years, 35.6% were male, 89.4% were White, and 54.9% had a cancer history (n = 3147). Individuals with a cancer history were more likely to not contact people outside of their household (49.0% vs. 41.9%, p<0.01), but were less likely to feel lonely (35.8% vs. 45.3%, p<0.0001) compared to those without a cancer history. Higher adherence to social distancing behaviors was associated with higher odds of loneliness among individuals with (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and without a cancer history (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.06-1.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this study can inform efforts to support the mental health of individuals susceptible to loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of a Culturally Tailored Education Intervention for African-American and Appalachian Men in Ohio

Men, particularly those of underserved groups, bear a disproportionate cancer burden. Knowledge about cancer and screening is associated with adherence to screening guidelines. However it is possible that a correlation exists between an individual's education attainment and ability to gain knowledge from health education. Men were recruited from Ohio counties with significant cancer disparities and asked to participate in three education sessions. Measures included a baseline survey collecting demographic information and pre- and post-intervention knowledge assessments about each of the topics. Paired t tests were used to determine whether there were statistically significant changes in mean scores after the intervention. Repeated measures of variance (ANOVA) conducted through generalized linear models (GLM) were used to determine if scores varied significantly by educational attainment. Appalachian men, regardless of level of educational attainment, had significant increases in knowledge for all topics. African American men with at least some college education demonstrated significant increases in knowledge for all three topics, while those with no college education had significant increases for only two topics. College education had a significant effect on scores for one topic among the Appalachian men and all three topics among the African American men. The interaction between change in score and higher educational attainment was significant for only one topic among Appalachian men and no topics among African American men. Higher educational attainment was associated with greater increases in knowledge scores for only one topic among Appalachian men and no topics among African American men. Culturally tailored health educational interventions are a promising approach to reducing disparities in cancer screening and outcomes among men of underserved groups. While all groups demonstrated increases in mean knowledge scores after participating in the educational intervention, there was not a significant association between educational attainment and increases in knowledge scores. Future research is needed to explore additional approaches to delivering health education and increasing the knowledge of men with lower levels of educational attainment.

Are there differences in outcomes by race among women with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer?

PURPOSE

Black women have higher breast cancer mortality rates than other groups, with Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) being more common among AAs with a worse prognosis. Our study seeks to explore differences among Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) vs. White (NHW) women, with Stage IV TNBC, focusing on survival and treatment patterns.

METHODS

SEER database was queried for TNBC patients diagnosed with metastatic disease from 2012 to 2016. Neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) was defined using the Yost index based on income, education, housing, and employment. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate receipt of surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy. Overall survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox proportional hazards model analysis.

RESULTS

25,761 TNBC cases were identified with 1420 being metastatic (5.5%). Bone was the most common site for metastasis, with patients' age being 63.7 years for NHW vs. 59.5 years for NHB. NHB women had the highest percentage of low nSES (62.3% vs 29.3%; p value = 0.001). On univariate analysis, fewer NHBs received radiation compared to NHWs (27.1 vs. 32.6%; p value = 0.040). On multivariate analysis, all women were less likely to undergo treatment if unmarried (p value < 0.01). NHB women had lower median survival compared to NHW women (13 vs. 15 months; p value < 0.01). Receipt of surgery and chemotherapy reduced the risk of mortality (p value < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

NHB women had lower median survival with metastatic TNBC. Race was associated with different treatment utilization. With a mortality differential between NHW and NHB women with metastatic TNBC, more investigation is needed to inform strategies to reduce this disparity.

In search of lost time: Delays in adjuvant therapy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma among under-resourced patient populations

BACKGROUND

The initiation of adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma within 12 weeks after surgery is recommended by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network. This study seeks to identify factors associated with delayed adjuvant chemotherapy and whether delays impact survival in under-resourced populations.

METHODS

Patients with nonmetastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma who received a definitive resection followed by adjuvant chemotherapy between 2006 and 2017 were queried from the National Cancer Database. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to determine the relationship between socioeconomic/clinical variables and delayed adjuvant chemotherapy. Kaplan Meier curves compared survival between under-resourced patients receiving delayed versus timely adjuvant chemotherapy.

RESULTS

Among 25,008 patients, timely adjuvant chemotherapy varied by stage (stage 1: 67.9% vs stage 2: 75.8% vs stage 3: 89.2%; P < .001). Older age (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.03; P < .001), Non-Hispanic Black race (odds ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.41; P < .001), increasing comorbidity score (odds ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.23; P < .001), 30-day readmission (odds ratio 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.28-1.63; P < .001), and undergoing a Whipple (odds ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.44; P < .001) were associated with delayed adjuvant chemotherapy. Conversely, the highest neighborhood median income quartile (odds ratio 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.97; P = .021), private insurance (odds ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.76; P < .001), Medicare (odds ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.88; P = .003), and receipt of neoadjuvant therapy (odds ratio 0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.04-0.06; P < .001) were associated with timely adjuvant chemotherapy. Non-Hispanic Black patients and patients with the lowest neighborhood education had worse overall survival when receiving delayed versus timely adjuvant chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

Timely adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma was only achieved in 73.3% of patients. Age, race, comorbidities, median income, and insurance were identified as barriers. Delayed adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with worse survival among under-resourced populations.

Distinct sociodemographic differences in incidence and survival rates for human papillomavirus (HPV)-like, non-HPV-like, and “other”-like oral cavity and pharynx cancers: An analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program data

Purpose

Oral cavity and pharynx cancer (OCPC) cases are traditionally dichotomized into human papillomavirus (HPV) and non-HPV types. Using a proxy for HPV status, the objective was to evaluate differences in incidence and survival rates of OCPC anatomic sub-sites identified as: 1) HPV-like; 2) non-HPV-like (i.e., tobacco/alcohol-related); and 3) “other”-like (i.e., not predominantly HPV-like nor tobacco/alcohol-like) OCPCs.

Methods

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program were used to examine incidence and survival rates for OCPC categories over time and according to age, sex, race, ethnicity, stage at diagnosis, neighborhood socioeconomic status (i.e., nSES or Yost Index), and rurality/urbanity (i.e., Rural Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes). Although HPV status was unavailable in this dataset, OCPC anatomies and histologies were classified into three sub-categories, based on potential risk factors. Frequencies, average annual, age-adjusted incidence rates, five-year relative survival rates, and 95% confidence intervals were examined across and within OCPC categories.

Results

HPV-like OCPC incidence rates sharply increased from 1975 through 2015 while non-HPV-like and “other”-like OCPC rates decreased, all converging to similar rates from 2016 through 2018. Increasing over time for both categories, survival was highest for HPV-like and lowest for non-HPV-like OCPCs; survival for “other”-like OCPCs remained stable. Generally, across OCPC categories, incidence and survival rates were significantly higher among males vs. females, Whites vs. African Americans, and non-Hispanics vs. Hispanics. “Other”-like OCPC incidence decreased with increasing nSES tertiles, while no nSES differences were observed for HPV-like and non-HPV-like OCPCs. Incidence rates were significantly lower among urban (vs. rural) residents. For all OCPC categories, survival rates were significantly higher with increasing nSES and variable across RUCA categories.

Conclusion/Impact

HPV-like and non-HPV-like OCPC cases had distinct sociodemographic differences; “other”-like OCPC cases were a sociodemographic blend of HPV-like and non-HPV-like OCPC cases, resembling more of the sociodemographic makeup of non-HPV-like OCPC cases. To prevent new OCPCs, additional studies are needed to epidemiologically and clinically differentiate between OCPC categories so that high-risk groups can be better targeted in future public health interventions.

Modified Radical Mastectomy in De Novo Stage IV Inflammatory Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

There are few studies on surgical management in patients with de novo metastatic inflammatory breast cancer (IBC). The objective of this study is to examine the association between modified radical mastectomy (MRM) and disease-specific survival (DSS) in patients with de novo stage IV IBC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program was queried for patients ≥18 years old with cT4d/pT4d pathology, histology type 8530 and 8533 with distant disease between 2010 and 2016. The sample was divided into two groups: (1) the MRM group, defined as MRM or mastectomy with at least ten lymph nodes removed, and (2) the no-surgery group. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were compared between the groups on bivariable analysis. After propensity score matching, Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional-hazards model examined DSS.

RESULTS

1293 patients were included in the study, of whom 240 underwent MRM. A higher percentage in the MRM group had only one metastatic site (69.8% versus 52.2%), received chemotherapy (88.3% versus 66.1%) and radiation (58.8% versus 26.0%) compared with the no-MRM group. MRM was associated with an increase in DSS compared with no MRM [HR 0.63 (95% CI 0.50-0.80), p < 0.001]. Patients with MRM had a 5-year DSS rate of 31.4% compared with 17.7% for patients not undergoing surgery (p = 0.001). Survival time was 38 months (range 27-45 months) for the MRM group versus 27 months (22-29 months) for the no-MRM group.

CONCLUSION

MRM in patients with de novo metastatic IBC may improve DSS in a subset of patients.

Racial and socioeconomic disparities among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data

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Background: Therapy for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has changed dramatically over the past 20 years. With the cost of new therapies and rapid practice changes, it is unclear if patients (pts) are benefiting equally from this progress. We assessed Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program data to determine how race and socioeconomic status (SES) affect survival for pts with CLL. Methods: CLL cases reported to 18 SEER Program registries from 2006 – 2018 were included. Pt characteristics such as age at diagnosis (dx), sex, year (yr) of dx, race, and SES as determined by rural/urban census tract residence (RUCA), and neighborhood (as represented by the Yost Index, a composite measure of 7 variables assessing different aspects of the SES of a census tract) were collected and analyzed. Multivariable cox regression (MVA) was used to determine adjusted odds of survival. Two separate databases were utilized, one which included data to 2018, and another which contained SES data but only had data available to 2016. Results: 46,605 cases from 2009 – 2018 were identified without SES data. The median age was 70 yrs, 60% were male, and there was an even distribution of patients diagnosed with CLL annually from 2009 – 2018. Of the cases with race reported, 89.9% were white, 7.3% Black, 2.4% Asian/Pacific islander, and 0.3% American Indian/Alaska Native. After a median follow up of 47 months, the median 3, 5, and 10 yr overall survival (OS) was 79.5%, 69.5%, and 48.8%, respectively. MVA showed Black race (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.4 – 1.6) as the strongest independent prognostic variable for worse OS controlling for yr of dx, suggesting race was a significant factor in OS in the era of modern therapies. Using the linked RUCA and Yost tertiles for SES, 47,867 cases of CLL from 2006 – 2016 were analyzed. Median age, sex, and race distribution were similar to the prior analysis. MVA showed American Indian/Alaska Native, and Black race as independent prognostic variables for worse OS, and Yost group 2 and 3, representing higher SES, were found to be significant independent prognostic variables for improved OS (Table 1). In this analysis, race remained an independent variable for worse OS after controlling for SES. Conclusions: Black race and low SES are prognostic of OS in CLL. Further research is needed to determine whether this is due to access to therapy, quality of care, social determinants of heath, or disease biology.[Table: see text]

Associations between cancer history, social distancing behaviors, and loneliness in adults during the COVID-19 pandemic

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Background: Due to COVID-19, social distancing initiatives have been enacted, highlighting differences of social distancing practices and the resulting loneliness in various populations, especially in those with a history of cancer (survivors and those in active treatment).The objective of this study was to examine whether social distancing practices and loneliness differ between individuals with and without a history of cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study is part of the “Impact of COVID-19 on Behaviors across the Cancer Control Continuum in Ohio” project conducted from June to November 2020. Participants from previous studies (N = 32,989) who had given permission to be re-contacted were invited to complete a survey online, by phone, or by mail. For the current analysis, participants who had complete data on history of cancer diagnosis, COVID social distancing behaviors (staying at home, not having visitors, staying 6 feet apart, wearing a masking indoors, and wearing a mask outdoors), attendance at social gatherings, contact with people outside of their household, and feelings of loneliness were included. Linear and logistic regression models were used to determine the associations between demographics, cancer history, social distancing, and loneliness. Results: Among the eligible participants (n = 5729), 54.9% had a cancer history (n = 3147), while 45.1% did not have a cancer history (n = 2582). The average age was 56.7 years, 35.6% were male, 89.4% were White, 74.7% were partnered, and 74.5% lived in metro counties. Out of all individuals, 69.3% participated in ≥4 of the 5 COVID social distancing behaviors, 31.5% did not attend any social gatherings, and 40.1% reported feeling lonely. Compared to individuals without a cancer history, individuals with a cancer history were more likely to contact no one outside of the household (49.0% vs. 41.9%, p < 0.01) and less likely to report feeling lonely (35.8% vs. 45.3%, p < 0.01). Among individuals with a cancer history, compared to their counterparts, those who were older, Black, Asian, and living in metro counties were adherent to more social distancing behaviors (mean differences = 0.02, 0.62, 0.71, 0.13, respectively, p all < 0.05) and attended fewer social gathering (mean differences = -0.01, -0.29, -0.49, -0.12, respectively, p all < 0.05). Higher adherence to social distancing behaviors was associated with higher odds of loneliness among individuals with (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.72-1.38) and without a cancer history (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.06-1.25). Conclusions: Social distancing practices and loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic varied between individuals with and without a cancer history. These findings can inform efforts to support and address all aspects of health among individuals susceptible to loneliness during the pandemic, especially those with a history of cancer.

Surgery Refusal Among Black and Hispanic Women with Non-Metastatic Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown a lower receipt of treatment among minority women with non-metastatic breast cancer. Those who refuse surgery have increased disease-specific mortality, contributing to disproportionately higher breast cancer mortality in non-Hispanic black (NHB) and Hispanic women. This study aimed to assess surgery refusal in these groups, identify factors associated with surgery refusal, and characterize the association between surgery refusal and survival.

METHODS

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program data from 2005 to 2015 for NHB and Hispanic women with a diagnosis of non-metastatic breast cancer (n = 113,987) was divided into data of those who underwent surgery and data of those who refused surgery. Sociodemographic and tumor clinical/pathologic differences were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression of predictors of surgery refusal and Cox-proportional hazard model of disease-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Of 799 patients who refused surgery, 562 were NHB and 237 were Hispanic. The percentage of patients refusing surgery increased from 0.6% in 2005 to 0.9% in 2015. The women who refused surgery were more likely to be older than 81 years, less likely to be married, and more likely to be uninsured or have Medicaid. The refusers presented with more advanced disease and more frequent estrogen receptor-positivity (ER+) and progesterone receptor-positivity (PR+) subtype on histology. Breast cancer-specific mortality increased significantly with surgery omission. Surgery refusal was independently associated with NHB race.

CONCLUSION

Surgery refusal among NHB and Hispanic women with potentially curable non-metastatic breast cancer is rising, especially among NHB women, women older than 60 years, single women, and women with a later stage of disease at diagnosis. Additional studies are needed to analyze qualitative data in these populations and their underlying health beliefs, communication needs, and possible use of alternative medicine.

Neighborhood socioeconomic status and low-value breast cancer care

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study is to examine the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) and receipt of low-value breast cancer procedures.

METHODS

Patients with breast cancer diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Low value procedures included: (1) axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for patients with limited nodal disease receiving breast conservation therapy (BCT); (2) contralateral prophylactic mastectomies (CPM); and (3) sentinel lymph node biopsies (SLNB) in patients ≥70 years old with clinically node negative early-stage hormone-positive breast cancer. The cohort was divided by nSES. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis compared the groups.

RESULTS

The study included 412 959 patients. Compared to patients in high nSES areas, residing in neighborhoods with low nSES (odd ratio [OR] 2.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0-2.42) and middle nSES (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.20-1.56) was associated with a higher probability of undergoing low value ALND. Conversely, patients in low SES neighborhoods were less likely to receive low value SLNB (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.85-0.94) or CPM than (low nSES OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.77); middle nSES OR 0.91 (0.89-0.92) those in high SES neighborhoods.

CONCLUSION

In the SEER Program, low nSES was associated with a lower probability of low value procedures except for ALND utilization.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Synchronous and Metachronous Bilateral Breast Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Significant racial and ethnic disparities exist in breast cancer treatment and survival. However, studies characterizing these disparities among patients developing bilateral breast cancers (BBC) are lacking. The purpose of this study is to understand the association between race and ethnicity, sociodemographic factors, clinical variables, treatment, and mortality in patients with BBC--synchronous bilateral breast cancer (sBBC) or metachronous bilateral breast cancer (mBBC).

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with mBBC or sBBC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program between 2010 and 2016 were examined. sBBC was defined as contralateral breast cancer <1 year after the initial cancer diagnosis, and mBBC was contralateral cancer ≥1 year. Univariable analysis examined sociodemographic, clinical, and treatment variables. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models evaluated disease-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 11,493 patients that met inclusion criteria, 9575 (83.3%) had sBBC, and 1918 (16.7%) had mBBC. There were significant racial and ethnic differences in stage, tumor subtype, surgical management, and chemotherapy within sBBC and mBBC groups. On adjusted multivariate analysis of all BBC patients, Black race (HR 1.42; 95%CI 1.11-1.80; p<0.005; Ref White) was associated with a higher disease-specific mortality. Conversely, patients with mBBC had a 25% relative risk reduction in disease-specific mortality (HR 0.75; 95%CI 0.61-0.92; p<0.01) compared to sBBC. Subset analysis suggested Black Race modified the effect of sBBC on mortality (p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with BBC, there are racial and ethnic disparities in clinical characteristics, treatment, and mortality. Future studies should focus on strategies to reduce these disparities.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Inflammatory breast cancer, trimodal treatment, and mortality: Does where you live matter?

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study is to examine the associations among neighborhood socioeconomic status, trimodal treatment, and disease-specific mortality among inflammatory breast cancer patients using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with inflammatory breast cancer (T4d) from 2010 to 2016 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. The cohort was stratified into neighborhood socioeconomic status groups (low, middle, high) based on National Cancer Institute census tract-level index. Trimodal treatment was defined as receipt of modified radical mastectomy, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. Bivariable analysis, log-rank test, and a Cox proportional hazards model (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval) were conducted to evaluate the relationship between neighborhood socioeconomic status, trimodal treatment, and disease-specific mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 4,374 patients met study criteria. There was no difference between the neighborhood socioeconomic status groups in receipt of trimodal treatment (P = .19). On multivariable analysis, there was no association between low neighborhood socioeconomic status (hazard ratio 1.13, 0.98-1.30; ref high neighborhood socioeconomic status) or middle neighborhood socioeconomic status (hazard ratio 1.01, 0.88-1.64; ref high neighborhood socioeconomic status) and disease-specific mortality. Notably, triple negative subtype (hazard ratio 2.66, 2.21-3.20; ref luminal A) and Black race (hazard ratio 1.41, 1.16-1.72; ref White) were associated with a higher disease-specific mortality.

CONCLUSION

For inflammatory breast cancer patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, disease-specific mortality appears to be driven by tumor biology and patient characteristics instead of treatment disparities or neighborhood socioeconomic status.

Abstract P1-24-01: Does modified radical mastectomy in de novo stage IV inflammatory breast cancer patients improve disease specific survival?

Introduction: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is an aggressive breast cancer subtype with poor prognosis. In the non-metastatic setting, the current literature suggests modified radical mastectomy (MRM) in conjunction with chemotherapy and radiation therapy improve clinical outcomes. However, for de novo metastatic IBC patients, surgical management is mostly palliative, and little is known about its implications for survival. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association between MRM and disease specific survival (DSS) among a contemporary cohort of de novo stage IV IBC patients. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program was queried for IBC (T4d) patients diagnosed between 2010-2016. The study cohort was divided into two groups- MRM vs no MRM. Surgical management was limited to patients who underwent MRM. Bivariable analysis was conducted to compare sociodemographic and clinical variables between the groups. The surgery group was nearest matched to the no-surgery group (1:2) on age, year of diagnosis, location of metastasis (e.g., bone only), number of metastatic sites, breast cancer subtype, chemotherapy and radiation therapy. A Kaplan-Meier curve was used to evaluate DSS between the two groups in the matched sample. Results: Of the 1293 patients who met study criteria, 240 underwent MRM and 1053 had no surgery. Patients undergoing MRM were more likely to be younger (MRM 55.7years±13.5, no MRM 59.40years±13.4; p&lt;0.001), have poorly differentiated tumors (grade 3; MRM 63.7%, no MRM 46.7%; p&lt;0.001) and metastasis in only one organ site (MRM 69.8%, no MRM 52.2%; p&lt;0.001). On matched analysis, patients who underwent MRM had longer DSS than those who did not undergo surgery (p=0.001). Moreover, the 5-year survival rate for surgical patients was 31.4% compared to 17.7% for the no surgery group. The median survival time was 38 months for patients who underwent MRM (interquartile range [IQR] 27-45 months] compared to 27 months (22-29 months) among those who did not have surgery. Conclusion: In this SEER cohort of de novo metastatic IBC patients, MRM was associated with an improved disease specific survival compared to no surgery. These results suggest surgical management should be considered in this population. Future prospective studies are needed to better define which subset of de novo metastatic IBC patients derive the most benefit from surgery, and consequently, should routinely undergo surgery.

Citation Format: JC Chen, Yaming Li, James L. Fisher, Allan Tsung, Samilia Obeng-Gyasi. Does modified radical mastectomy in de novo stage IV inflammatory breast cancer patients improve disease specific survival? [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2021 Dec 7-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-24-01.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

From street address to survival: Neighborhood socioeconomic status and pancreatic cancer outcomes

BACKGROUND

Neighborhood factors may influence cancer care through physical, economic, and social means. This study assesses the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic status on diagnosis, treatment, and survival in pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

Patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were identified in the 2010-2016 Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. Neighborhood socioeconomic status (divided into tertiles) was based on an National Cancer Institute census tract-level composite score, including income, education, housing, and employment. Multivariate models predicted metastasis at time of diagnosis and receipt of surgery for early-stage disease. Overall survival compared via Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards.

RESULTS

Fifteen thousand four hundred and thirty-six patients (29.7%) lived in low neighborhood socioeconomic status, 17,509 (33.7%) in middle neighborhood socioeconomic status, and 19,010 (36.6%) in high neighborhood socioeconomic status areas. On multivariate analysis, neighborhood socioeconomic status was not associated with metastatic disease at diagnosis (low neighborhood socioeconomic status odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.97-1.07; ref: high neighborhood socioeconomic status). However, low neighborhood socioeconomic status was associated with decreased likelihood of surgery for localized/regional disease (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.54-0.68; ref: high neighborhood socioeconomic status) and worse overall survival (low neighborhood socioeconomic status hazard ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.21; ref: high neighborhood socioeconomic status).

CONCLUSION

Patients from resource-poor neighborhoods are less likely to receive stage-appropriate therapy for pancreatic cancer and have an 18% higher risk of death.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Low neighborhood socioeconomic status is associated with higher mortality and increased surgery utilization among metastatic breast cancer patients

Purpose

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with advanced stage, lower-quality care, and higher mortality among breast cancer patients. The purpose of this study is to examine the association between neighborhood SES (nSES), surgical management, and disease-specific mortality in de novo metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program.

Methods

MBC patients ages 18 to 85+ years diagnosed from 2010 through 2016 were identified in SEER. The cohort was divided into low, middle, and high nSES based on the NCI census tract-level index. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to examine the relationship between nSES, surgery, and disease specific mortality in MBC patients.

Results

There were 24,532 de novo MBC patients who met study criteria, with 28.7 % undergoing surgery. Over the study period, surgery utilization decreased across all nSES groups. However, lower nSES was associated with a higher odds of undergoing surgery (low OR 1.25 [1.15–1.36] p < 0.001; middle OR 1.09 [1.01–1.18] p = 0.022; ref high). Living in an area with lower SES was associated with a worse disease specific mortality (low HR 1.24 [1.25, 1.44; ], middle 1.20 [1.1–1.29]: ref high). Specifically, there was a 9.26 month mean survival differences between the lowest (41.02 ± 0.47 months) and highest (50.28 ± 0.47 months) nSES groups.

Conclusion

These results suggest area of residence may contribute to differences in surgical management and clinical outcomes among de novo MBC patients. Future studies should examine the contributions of patient characteristics and preferences within the context of surgeon recommendations.

•

Utilization of surgical management for de novo metastatic breast cancer is decreasing.

•

Low nSES is associated with a higher odds of undergoing surgery among de novo MBC patients.

•

MBC patients residing in low SES neighborhoods have a worse disease specific mortality than those in high SES areas.

Cervical Cancer Among Older Women: Analyses of Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program Data

OBJECTIVE

To describe age-specific cervical cancer incidence rates based on demographic and clinical characteristics.

METHODS

Women with cervical cancer in the SEER program were grouped into 3 age categories. Demographics, clinical characteristics, and incidence rates were obtained for each age group.

RESULTS

Older women (≥65 years) had higher incidence rates of cervical cancer than women <65 years with the highest rates in black women ≥75 years. Older black women had more adverse factors at diagnosis than similarly aged white and younger black women. There was a higher incidence rate of cervical cancer in women with lower socioeconomic status (SES), with the highest rates in older black women. However, the incidence rates were similar for older black women regardless of SES.

CONCLUSION

Older black have the highest cervical cancer incidence rates, regardless of SES, suggesting an age and race disparity when compared to younger and white women.

Impact of Medicaid expansion on pancreatic cancer care: A difference-in-difference analysis

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Background: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) increased insurance coverage for low-income individuals, which should potentially lead to better access to care and improved oncological outcomes. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of Medicaid expansion (ME) on care for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Methods: Patients who were uninsured or on Medicaid and diagnosed with PDAC between 2004 and 2017 were queried from the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Two different expansion cohorts were included: early expansion states and 2014 expansion states. For early expansion states, the time period of pre-expansion was 2004-2009 and post-expansion was 2010-2017. As for the 2014 expansion states, the pre-expansion period was from 2004-2013 and post-expansion period was from 2014-2017. Patients in non-expansion states formed the control group. A difference-in-difference (DID) analysis was used to assess the association of ME with stage of diagnosis, treatment and survival for each expansion cohort. Results: In both early and January 2014 expansion states, there was an increase in overall Medicaid coverage (Early: DID = 0.29, 2014: DID = 0.37; P < 0.001), in particular for non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic Black patients (Non-Hispanic Black: Early: DID = 0.11, 2014: DID = 0.11; P < 0.001, Hispanic-Black: 2014: DID = 0.20; P = 0.003). There were no differences in early stage diagnosis (Early: DID = 0.02, 2014: DID = -0.02; P > 0.05). There was an increase in the number of patients receiving surgery (Early: DID = 0.05; P = 0.001, 2014: DID = 0.03; P = 0.029) but no difference in time to surgery among patients receiving surgery upfront (Early: DID = 1.75, 2014: DID = 0.38; P > 0.05). There was no difference in 30-day readmission post-surgery (Early: DID = 0.003; 2014: DID = -0.00007; P > 0.05) or 90-day mortality (Early: DID = -0.007, 2014: DID = -0.035; P > 0.05). Moreover, there was no difference in receipt of chemotherapy (Early: DID = 0.01, 2014: DID = 0.005; P > 0.05) or time to chemotherapy for patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (Early: Early: DID = 9.62, 2014: DID = 0.01; P > 0.05). Finally, there was no difference in receipt of palliative care among stage IV patients in both cohorts (Early: DID = -0.004, 2014: DID = 0.004; P > 0.05). Conclusions: This study suggests that after ME, PDAC patients were more likely to be insured and had increased access to surgical care. Future, studies should evaluate the implications of improved surgical access on clinical outcomes such as mortality.

An ecological evaluation of the increasing incidence of endometrial cancer and the obesity epidemic

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of obesity has increased significantly in recent decades, particularly among younger women, and is a known risk factor for endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the trend in the prevalence of obesity and the incidence of type I endometrial cancer over time in various age categories to determine whether an ecological relationship exists.

STUDY DESIGN

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. The overall trend in the incidence of type 1 endometrial cancer and prevalence of obesity were observed over time from 1988 to 2016 and further categorized by age group (<45, 45-54, and ≥55 years).

RESULTS

The prevalence of obesity has increased for all women, but most significantly for women younger than 45 years with a 16.3% increase among women aged 20 to 34 years and a 17.9% increase for women aged 35 to 44 years. The incidence of endometrial cancer has also increased across all age categories, and although it has increased in patients younger than 45 years by more than 14-fold (from <0.1 per 100,000 in 1988 to 1.4 per 100,000 in 2016), a more pronounced increase of 63-fold and 50-fold was observed among women aged 45 to 54 years (0.2 per 100,000 in 1988 to 12.6 per 100,000 in 2016) and women aged 55 years and older (from 0.6 per 100,000 in 1988 to 30 per 100,000 in 2016), respectively. The mean age of women diagnosed as having endometrial cancer also decreased from 64.1 years from 1988 to 1990 to 61.0 years from 2014 to 2016.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of obesity has increased significantly in women of all ages. This increase, particularly among women aged <45 years, occurred simultaneously with an increase in the incidence of endometrial cancer in young women, with an even more pronounced increase among women aged ≥45 years.

Poor Survival and Differential Impact of Genetic Features of Black Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Clinical outcome of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with cytogenetic and molecular factors and patient demographics (e.g., age and race). We compared survival of 25,523 non-Hispanic Black and White adults with AML using Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program data and performed mutational profiling of 1,339 patients with AML treated on frontline Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology (Alliance) protocols. Black patients had shorter survival than White patients, both in SEER and in the setting of Alliance clinical trials. The disparity was especially pronounced in Black patients <60 years, after adjustment for socioeconomic (SEER) and molecular (Alliance) factors. Black race was an independent prognosticator of poor survival. Gene mutation profiles showed fewer NPM1 and more IDH2 mutations in younger Black patients. Overall survival of younger Black patients was adversely affected by IDH2 mutations and FLT3-ITD, but, in contrast to White patients, was not improved by NPM1 mutations. SIGNIFICANCE: We show that young Black patients have not benefited as much as White patients from recent progress in AML treatment in the United States. Our data suggest that both socioeconomic factors and differences in disease biology contribute to the survival disparity and need to be urgently addressed.See related commentary by Vyas, p. 540.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 521.

Socioeconomic and Surgical Disparities are Associated with Rapid Relapse in Patients with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

A subset of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is characterized by aggressive disease, rapid relapse, and mortality within 24 months of diagnosis, termed "rapid relapse" TNBC (rrTNBC). The objective of this study is to define the association between sociodemographic variables and surgical management among rrTNBC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program.

METHODS

TNBC patients diagnosed from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014 with local or regional disease were identified in SEER. Patients were stratified as rrTNBC, defined as disease specific mortality ≤ 24 months after diagnosis, and non-rrTNBC. Chi-squared tests, t tests, and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess the association of rapid relapse with sociodemographic variables and surgical management.

RESULTS

The cohort included 8% (1378/17,369) rrTNBCs. A higher proportion of rrTNBC patients had no surgery (11.7%) compared with non-rrTNBC (2.6%). Omission of axillary staging among patients who had surgery was 6.2% rrTNBC versus 4.5% non-rrTNBC. Black race (odds ratio [OR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.43; p = 0.01; white ref), Medicaid or no insurance (Medicaid OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.31-1.79; p < 0.001; no insurance OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.31-2.32; p < 0.001; private ref), single status (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.39; p = 0.03; married ref), no breast (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.77-3.11; p < 0.001; mastectomy ref), and no axillary surgery (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.13-1.83; p = 0.003 axillary surgery ref) were associated with rapid relapse.

CONCLUSIONS

Medicaid or no insurance, single status, black race, and no surgery are associated with higher odds of rrTNBC in SEER. These results indicate an interplay between socioeconomic factors, clinical and genomic variables may be disproportionately contributing to worse outcomes among a subset of TNBC patients.

Scripted tours through a giant inflatable colon: An innovative and effective educational tool in urban communities

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death among men and women in the US and mortality rates are increasing among young adults. Although CRC is largely preventable with screening and often curable when detected at an early stage, many age-appropriate individuals remain unscreened or are not currently up-to-date with screening. We aimed to examine the impact of providing guided, scripted tours through an inflatable colon on three domains: CRC knowledge, likelihood of communicating about CRC with others, and the intention to be screened for CRC in a diverse, urban population. The inflatable walk-through colon was exhibited at five community events in Franklin County, Ohio between March 2015 and August 2016. A pre and posttest research design and composite scores were stratified into three age groups (<45 years, 45-49 years and ≥ 50 years of age). Descriptive statistics were used to describe and compare demographic characteristics. Logistic regression was used to examine potential associations between demographic factors and the three outcomes of interest. These tours led to statistically significant increases in CRC knowledge, communication, and intention to undergo CRC screening among participants in all three age cohorts. In addition, the intention of undergo screening after a tour among individuals<45 years of age were nearly three times that of those older than 50 (OR = 2.66; 95%CI = 1.49-4.75). Overall, this study supports the use of scripted tours through an inflatable colon exhibit as a potentially effective intervention to increase age-appropriate CRC screening uptake.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Second cancer incidence in CLL patients receiving BTK inhibitors

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is associated with perturbed immune function and increased risk for second primary malignancies (SPM). Ibrutinib and acalabrutinib (BTKi) are effective therapies for CLL resulting in partial restoration of immune function. The incidence of and risk factors for SPM in CLL patients receiving BTKi are not yet characterized. We retrospectively determined the incidence of SPM in CLL patients treated with ibrutinib or acalabrutinib at our institution between 2009 and 2017, assessed for association between baseline characteristics and SPM incidence, and compared the observed to expected cancer incidence among age, sex, and year matched controls without CLL. After a median of 44 months follow-up, 64/691 patients (9%) were diagnosed with SPM (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer [NMSC]). The three-year cumulative incidence rate was 16% for NMSC and 7% for other SPM. On multivariable analysis, smoking was associated with increased SPM risk (HR 2.8 [95% CI: 1.6–4.8]) and higher baseline CD8 count was associated with lower SPM risk (HR 0.9 for 2-fold increase [95% CI: 0.8–0.9]). The observed over expected rate of SPM was 2.2 [95% CI: 1.7–2.9]. CLL patients treated with BTKi remain at increased risk for SPM, and secondary cancer detection is an important consideration in this population.

Ethnic disparities in cancer incidence and survival among the oldest old in the United States

Objective: To examine potential ethnic disparities in cancer incidence and survival rates among the oldest old using data from the SEER Program.Design: Cases diagnosed with one of the leading four cancer sites (lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, female breast, prostate) and four cancer sites (stomach, liver and intrahepatic bile duct, gallbladder, and cervical) that disproportionally affect Hispanics were reported to one of 18 SEER registries. Differences in cancer incidence were examined for cases aged ≥85 years diagnosed during the most recent 5-year time period (2009-2013) and, to examine changes over time, from 1992 to 2013. Five-year relative cancer survival probability was examined for Hispanics and non-Hispanics aged ≥85 years diagnosed 2006-2012.Results: From 2009 to 2013, non-Hispanics aged ≥85 years had higher incidence rates compared to Hispanics for colon and rectum, lung and bronchus, female breast, and prostate cancers. Five-year survival probability for cancers of all stages combined was higher for non-Hispanics than Hispanics in this age group. However, Hispanics had higher survival probability of colon and rectum and lung and bronchus cancers diagnosed at regional (colon and rectum: 67.2% vs. 60.5%; lung and bronchus: 15.9% vs. 12.7%) and distant (colon and rectum: 5.4% vs. 3.8%; lung and bronchus: 2.8% vs. 2.2%) stages than non-Hispanics, respectively.Conclusion: Ethnic differences in cancer incidence and survival probability exist for the ≥85 population. Continued efforts are needed to understand and reduce ethnic disparities in cancer prevention and treatment for this population.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Assessing the Impact of CALGB 9343 on Surgical Trends in Elderly-Women With Stage I ER+ Breast Cancer: A SEER-Based Analysis

Purpose: Lumpectomy (L) and breast radiotherapy (RT) results in equivalent outcomes in comparison to mastectomy (M) for early-stage breast cancer (BC) based on randomized controlled trials (RCT). Since 2004, RCT support that L without RT yields equivalent survival and acceptable local-regional outcomes in women ≥70-years old with T1N0 hormone-sensitive (ER+) BC on endocrine therapy. Based on this, we hypothesized that M rates should decrease substantially after 2004 in this low-risk elderly population.

Methods: We used the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry data to conduct this study. We included women with T1N0 ER+ BC from 2000 to 2014. We compared M rates in women diagnosed from 2000 to 2004 vs. 2005–2012 using the Chi-Square test. Logistic regression analyses was performed to examine demographic/clinical factors associated with mastectomy.

Results: 67,506 women met the study criteria. In elderly Stage I ER+ BC, the M rate decreased by 6.3%: 29.0% before 2004 to 22.7% after 2004 (p < 0.0001). M rates remained higher in elderly non-Hispanic black (NHB, 27.1%, p < 0.0001), non-Hispanic Asian-Pacific-Islander (NHAPI, 30.1%, p < 0.0001), and Hispanics (24.4%, p = 0.0004) vs. non-Hispanic White (NHW, 21.5%). Treatment in the modern cohort was associated with decreased odds of mastectomy (OR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.68-0.74, p < 0.0001) while NH-API race was associated with the highest increased odds of mastectomy (OR = 1.65, 95% 1.53-1.78, p < 0.0001). In the modern cohort specifically (2005–2014), Hispanic women (OR = 1.12, p = 0.014), NHB women (OR = 1.21, p < 0.0001), and NHAPI women (OR = 1.73, p < 0.0001) all had higher odds of undergoing mastectomy relative to NHW women after adjusting for all other patient and tumor related factors.

Conclusions: In elderly patients with stage I, ER+ BC, M rates have decreased modestly since 2004. These trends are driven mostly be decreases in the M rate in NHW women, but M rates remain ~25% in Hispanic, NHB, and NHAPI women. Further research is needed to identify why M, which is associated with higher cost and morbidity than L alone, has not changed substantially in elderly, low-risk BC.

Second cancer incidence in CLL patients receiving BTK inhibitors

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Background: Patients (pts) with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) suffer morbidity and mortality from CLL and increased risk for second primary neoplasia (SPN). BTK inhibitors (BTKi) are highly effective for the treatment (tx) of CLL and are associated with partial restoration of immune function with ongoing tx. The impact of BTKi on the risk for and patterns of SPN is yet to be characterized. Methods: CLL pts treated with ibrutinib or acalabrutinib at our center were identified retrospectively. Baseline (bl) and outcome data were collected including incidence (inc) of Richter’s transformation (RT), non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), and SPN. Standard inc ratio (SIR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using expected inc rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed inc. Cumulative inc (CIR) of SPN (excluding RT and NMSC) was calculated from BTKi start date to the diagnosis of SPN; death was a competing risk and pts without event were censored at last follow-up (f/u). SPN was correlated with bl data using the Fine-Gray model. Results: 691 pts were included; median age was 64 years (y), median prior lines of treatment (tx) was 2 (20% tx-naïve, 66% with prior chemo-immunotherapy), and 56% were never smokers. At median f/u of 44 months, 68 pts (10%) were diagnosed (dx) with SPN (SIR 2.4, CI 1.9-3.0) including 13 lung (SIR 3.2, CI 1.7-5.5), 9 melanoma (SIR 6.9, CI 3.1-13), 9 prostate (SIR 1.4, CI 0.6-2.6), 7 bladder (SIR 5.2, CI 2.1-10.6) cancers. CIR of SPN at 3 y was 7.6% (Table). Smoking (hazard ratio (HR) 2.9, CI 1.7-5.0, p < .01) and low bl CD8 count (HR 0.9 for 2-fold increase, CI 0.8-0.9, p < .01) were associated with higher inc of SPN. RT was dx in 58 pts (8%) and NMSC in 138 pts (20%). 179 pts had died with 3 y overall survival of 79% (CI 76-82); the most common causes of death were CLL/RT (57%) and SPN (13%). Conclusions: The inc of SPN in pts treated with BTKi for CLL is increased relative to the general population. With a 5 y CIR of NMSC and SPN of 23% and 12%, these data support consideration of intensive cancer screening for CLL pts receiving BTKi. [Table: see text]

Correlates of Rural, Appalachian, and Community Identity in the CITIES Cohort

PURPOSE

To determine correlates of rural, Appalachian, and community identity among a cohort of participants in the Community Initiative Towards Improving Equity and Health Status (CITIES) project.

METHODS

Mixed linear and logistic regression effects models were utilized to determine correlates of 3 outcomes: 1) community identity, 2) rural identity, and 3) Appalachian identity among participants in the Ohio CITIES project.

FINDINGS

Distinct demographic characteristics were found to be associated with each of the outcomes. For community identity, while no differences were found for rural or urban participants, those who were single or never married (P < .0001) as well as those who graduated from college (P = .0005) reported significantly lower community identity scores than married individuals with less than a college education. Those who resided in an Appalachian county reported higher community identity scores (P = .0009) than non-Appalachian residents. For rural identity, those who did not identify as Christian (P = .018) as well as those who identified as Democrat (P = .027) reported significantly lower rural identity scores than others. Lastly, for Appalachian identity, county-level percentage of families in poverty (P = .06), as well as gender (P = .05), were associated with self-reported Appalachian identity, but these effects were only marginally significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Although community, rural, and Appalachian identity may be viewed as similar due to their measure of attachment to a place, results from this study suggest that there are distinct individual and area-level correlates associated with community, rural, and Appalachian identity.

The association between histological subtype of a first primary endometrial cancer and second cancer risk

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk of a second primary cancer after endometrial cancer according to histological subtype.

METHODS

Using data from the 13 National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries we identified women diagnosed with a primary endometrial cancer between 1992 and 2014. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for second primary cancer risk (all anatomical sites combined and for individual anatomical sites) among patients with endometrial cancer compared with the general population, in the overall study population and according to histological subtype.

RESULTS

Among 96 256 women diagnosed with endometrial cancer, 8.4% (n=8083) developed a second primary cancer. The risk of second primary cancer was higher among patients with endometrial cancer than in the general population (SIR=1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.07). We observed significantly higher second primary cancer risk among women with high grade endometrioid (SIR=1.12, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.19), serous (SIR=1.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.38), carcinosarcoma (SIR=1.18, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.35), mixed epithelial (SIR=1.22, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.40), and sarcoma (SIR=1.28, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.45) compared with the general population, but not for women with low grade endometrioid (SIR=1.01, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.03) or clear cell (SIR=1.09, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.33) endometrial cancer. Women with low grade endometrioid endometrial cancer had significantly lower second primary cancer risks in the gum and other mouth (SIR=0.57, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.97), lung and bronchus (SIR=0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.77), and lymphocytic leukemia (SIR=0.71, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.93) while women with high risk endometrial cancer histological subtypes experienced significantly higher second primary cancer risk at several anatomical sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of developing second primary cancersat all anatomic sites combined and at individual anatomical sites varied according to histological subtype. Clinicians should be aware that women with different histological subtypes carry different second primary cancer risks .

The CITIES Project: Understanding the Health of Underrepresented Populations in Ohio

BACKGROUND

Ohio, the catchment area of The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center (OSUCCC), includes diverse populations with different cancer profiles. As part of the National Cancer Institute (NCI)-funded initiative to conduct population health assessments in cancer center catchment areas, the OSUCCC surveyed residents, focusing on factors contributing to cancer disparities in Ohio populations.

METHODS

Two sampling strategies were used: (i) probability sampling of mailing lists and (ii) convenience sampling at community events, coupled with phone/in-person/web surveys. Survey items were chosen along multilevel framework constructs, used in concert with other funded NCI-Designated Cancer Centers. Multivariable logistic regression models investigated predictors associated with health behaviors, cancer beliefs, knowledge, and screening.

RESULTS

The sample of 1,005 respondents were white (46.6%), African American (24.7%), Hispanic (13.7%), Somali (7.6%), and Asian (7.5%). A total of 216 respondents were Appalachian. Variations in cancer attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors were noted by racial/ethnic and geographic group. Multivariable models identified individuals with less financial security as less likely to exercise or be within guidelines for screening, but more likely to smoke and have a poor diet. At the community-level, measures of poverty were highest in Appalachia, whereas children in female-headed households were greater in urban minority areas.

CONCLUSIONS

This population health assessment reinforced the diversity of the OSUCCC catchment area. These populations are ripe for implementation science strategies, focusing in communities and clinics that serve vulnerable populations.

IMPACT

Understanding attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors of this population can assist tailoring outreach and research strategies to lessen the cancer burden.

Identifying patterns of care for elderly patients with non-surgically treated stage III non-small cell lung cancer: an analysis of the national cancer database

Background

To compare patterns of care for elderly patients versus non-elderly patients with non-surgically treated stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using the National Cancer Database (NCDB). We hypothesize that elderly patients are less likely to receive curative treatments, including concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT), compared to non-elderly patients.

Methods

We identified patients from the NCDB between 2003 and 2014 with non-surgically treated stage III NSCLC. We defined elderly as ≥70 years old and non-elderly <70 years old. Treatment categories included: no treatment, palliative treatment (chemotherapy alone, radiation (RT) alone <59.4 Gy or chemoradiation (CRT) <59.4 Gy), or definitive treatment (RT alone ≥59.4 Gy or CRT ≥59.4 Gy). Differences in treatment between elderly and non-elderly were tested using the χ² test.

Results

We identified 57,602 elderly and 55,928 non-elderly patients. More elderly patients received no treatment (24.5% vs. 13.2%, P < 0.0001) and the elderly were less likely to receive definitive treatment (48.5% vs. 56.3%, P < 0.0001). CCRT was delivered in a significantly smaller proportion of elderly vs. non-elderly patients (66.0% vs. 78.9%, P < 0.0001 in patients treated with definitive intent; 32.0% vs. 44.5%, P < 0.0001 in patients receiving any treatment; and 24.2% vs. 38.6%, P < 0.0001 amongst all patients).

Conclusions

In this large study of patients with non-surgically treated stage III NSCLC, elderly patients were less likely to receive any treatment or treatment with definitive intent compared to the non-elderly. The lack of use of concurrent or sequential chemotherapy in the elderly with stage III NSCLC suggests that the optimal treatment approach for this vulnerable population remains undefined.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13014-018-1142-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: Opportunities for Targeted Prevention in Ohio

Objective:

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma, one of the most lethal gastroenterological diseases, has been increasing since the 1960s. Prevention of esophageal adenocarcinoma is important because no early detection screening programs have been shown to reduce mortality. Obesity, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and tobacco smoking are risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Due to the high prevalence in Ohio of obesity (32.6%) and cigarette smoking (21.0%), this study sought to identify trends and patterns of these risk factors and esophageal adenocarcinoma in Ohio as compared with the United States.

Methods:

Data from the Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System, Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER), and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used. Incidence rates overall, by demographics and by county, as well as trends in incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma and the percent of esophageal adenocarcinoma among esophageal cancers were examined. Trends in obesity and cigarette smoking in Ohio, and the prevalence of each by county, were reported.

Results:

There was an increasing trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence in Ohio. Ohio’s average annual esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence rate was higher than the SEER rate overall and for each sex, race, and age group in 2009 to 2013. There was also an increasing prevalence of obesity in Ohio. Although the prevalence of cigarette smoking has been stable, it was high in Ohio compared with the United States.

Conclusions:

Health care providers and researchers should be aware of the esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence rates and risk factor patterns and tailor interventions for areas and populations at higher risk.

Incidence and survival of hematological cancers among adults ages ≥75 years

Evaluating population-based data of hematologic malignancies (HMs) in older adults provides prognostic information for this growing demographic. Incidence rates and one- and five-year relative survival rates were examined for specific HMs among adults ages ≥75 years using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program. Hematologic malignancy cases (Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), multiple myeloma (MM), acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)) were reported to one of 18 SEER registries. Recent average annual (2010-2014) incidence rates and incidence trends from 1973 to 2014 were examined for cases ages ≥75 years. One- and five-year relative cancer survival rates were examined for adults ages ≥75 years diagnosed 2007-2013, with follow-up into 2014. From 1973 to 2014, incidence rates increased for NHL, MM, and AML, decreased for HL, and remained relatively stable for ALL, CLL, and CML among adults ages ≥75 years. The highest one- and five-year relative survival rates were observed among adults with CLL ages 75-84 years (1 year: 91.8% (95% CI = 91.8-90.8)) and 5 years: 76.5% (95% CI = 74.2-78.6)). The lowest one- and five-year survival rates were observed among adults with AML ages 75-84 (1 year: 18.2% (95% CI = 74.2-78.6) and 5 years: 2.7% (95% CI = 2.0-3.6)). Survival for older adults ages ≥75 years with HMs is poor, particularly for acute leukemia. Understanding the heterogeneity in HM outcomes among older patients may help clinicians better address the hematological cancer burden and mortality in the aging population.

Disparities in breast cancer tumor characteristics, treatment, time to treatment, and survival probability among African American and white women

African American (AA) women have a 42% higher breast cancer death rate compared to white women despite recent advancements in management of the disease. We examined racial differences in clinical and tumor characteristics, treatment and survival in patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2014 at a single institution, the James Cancer Hospital, and who were included in the Arthur G. James Cancer Hospital and Richard J. Solove Research Institute Cancer Registry in Columbus OH. Statistical analyses included likelihood ratio chi-square tests for differences in proportions, as well as univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions to examine associations between race and overall and progression-free survival probabilities. AA women made up 10.2% (469 of 4593) the sample. Average time to onset of treatment after diagnosis was almost two times longer in AA women compared to white women (62.0 days vs 35.5 days, p < 0.0001). AA women were more likely to report past or current tobacco use, experience delays in treatment, have triple negative and late stage breast cancer, and were less likely to receive surgery, especially mastectomy and reconstruction following mastectomy. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, grade, and surgery), overall survival probability was significantly associated with race (HR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.03–1.72). These findings highlight the need for efforts focused on screening and receipt of prompt treatment among AA women diagnosed with breast cancer.

African Americans with breast cancer wait longer to get treated and then live shorter than white women, a US cancer center’s records show. Electra Paskett and her colleagues from Ohio State University in Columbus examined racial differences in tumor characteristics and patient outcomes among the 4,593 women treated for breast cancer at their institution’s affiliated hospitals between 2005 and 2014. They found that the time between diagnosis and treatment onset was longer for African Americans — 62 days compared to 35.5 days for white women. African Americans were also more likely to have harder-to-treat forms of disease and they were less likely to undergo surgery. Even accounting for many of these factors, African American women still had worse outcomes, as measured by survival probability. The findings highlight the need address racial disparities in breast cancer treatment.

The Addition of Chemotherapy to Radiation Therapy Improves Survival in Elderly Patients with Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Elderly patients account for the majority of lung cancer diagnoses but are poorly represented in clinical trials. We evaluated the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with stage III NSCLC treated with definitive radiation compared with that of patients treated with definitive chemoradiation.

METHODS

We conducted a comparative effectiveness study of radiation therapy versus chemoradiation in elderly (≥70 years old) patients with stage III NSCLC not treated surgically diagnosed from 2003 to 2014; the patients were identified by using the National Cancer Database. Two cohorts were evaluated: patients (n = 5023) treated with definitive radiation (≥59.4 Gy) and patients (n = 18,206) treated with definitive chemoradiation. Chemoradiation was further defined as concurrent (radiation and chemotherapy started within 30 days of each other) or sequential (radiation started >30 days after chemotherapy). We compared OS between the treatment groups by using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression before and after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

Treatment with chemoradiation was associated with improved OS versus that with radiation both before PSM (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-0.68, p < 0.001) and after PSM (HR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.64-0.70, p < 0.001). Relative to concurrent chemoradiation, sequential chemoradiation was associated with a 9% reduction in the risk for death (HR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85-0.96, p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that definitive chemoradiation resulted in a survival advantage compared with definitive radiation in elderly patients. Sequential chemotherapy and radiation was superior to concurrent chemoradiation. Although prospective trials are needed, this analysis suggests that chemoradiation should be strongly considered for elderly patients and the optimal sequencing of chemotherapy and radiation remains an unanswered question for this patient population.