Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

The global burden of 29 cancer groups from 2010 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

10577

Background: Cancer is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and global efforts to reduce health loss from cancer require systematic estimates that can measure progress from national to global levels. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we examined global cancer burden in order to highlight areas where cancer burden is inequitably distributed and to inform cancer control efforts around the world. Methods: Using estimation methods from GBD 2019, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 29 cancer groups and 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019. Cancer burden was compared to health burden from other categories of diseases and injuries in the GBD. Results were assessed globally and by socio-demographic index (SDI), a summary measure of income per capita, average educational attainment, and total fertility rate. Point estimates and 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) are reported. Results: There were 23.6 million (95% UI 22.2-24.9 million) incident cancer cases globally in 2019 (17.2 [15.9-18.5] million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer), and 10.0 (9.36-10.6) million cancer deaths. There were 250 (235-264) million DALYs globally due to cancer, 97% of which came from years of life lost. The leading five cancers by DALYs in 2019 were: tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (45.9 [42.3-49.3] million); colon and rectum cancer (24.3 [22.6-25.7] million); stomach cancer (22.2 [20.3-24.1] million); breast cancer (20.6 [19.0-22.2] million; and liver cancer (12.5 [11.4-13.7] million). Compared to other diseases and injuries in the GBD, cancer was responsible for the second-highest number of deaths, YLLs, and DALYs globally in 2019. These rankings of cancer burden differed by SDI quintile: cancer was the leading cause of absolute DALYs in high SDI countries but was ranked 10th in low SDI countries. From 2010-2019, the number of global cancer cases increased by 26.3% (20.3-32.3%), deaths by 20.9% (14.2-27.6%), and DALYs by 16.0% (9.29-22.8%). The largest annualized rate of change in absolute cases and deaths over this period occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. Conclusions: Cancer cases and deaths are growing globally, with the largest relative growth over the last decade occurring in low to middle SDI countries. Improvements in cancer prevention efforts and ensuring access to timely diagnosis and care will be necessary to make equitable progress in reducing the global burden of cancer.

National burden of cancer in Italy, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

We monitored the burden of cancer in Italy and its trends over the last three decades, providing estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for cancer overall and 30 cancer sites using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. An overview of mortality trends between 1990 and 2017 was also provided. In 2017, there were 254,336 new cancer cases in men and 214,994 in women, corresponding to an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 438 and 330/100,000, respectively. Between 1990 and 2017, incident cancer cases, and, to a lesser extent, ASIRs significantly increased overall and for almost all cancer sites, but ASIRs significantly declined for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms. In 2017, there were 101,659 cancer deaths in men (age-standardized death rate, ASDR, 158.5/100,000) and 78,918 in women (ASDR 93.9/100,000). Cancer deaths significantly increased between 1990 and 2017 (+ 18%), but ASDR significantly decreased (- 28%). Deaths significantly increased for many cancer sites, but decreased for stomach, esophageal, laryngeal, Hodgkin lymphoma, and testicular cancer. ASDRs significantly decreased for most neoplasms, with the main exceptions of cancer of the pancreas and uterus, and multiple myeloma. In 2017, cancer caused 3,204,000 DALYs. Between 1990 and 2017, DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates significantly declined (-3.4% and -33%, respectively). Age-standardized mortality rates in Italy showed favorable patterns over the last few decades. However, the absolute number of cancer cases and, to a lower extent, of cancer deaths increased likely due to the progressive ageing of the population, this calling for a continuous effort in cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Genetic analyses of diverse populations improves discovery for complex traits

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have laid the foundation for investigations into the biology of complex traits, drug development and clinical guidelines. However, the majority of discovery efforts are based on data from populations of European ancestry^1-3. In light of the differential genetic architecture that is known to exist between populations, bias in representation can exacerbate existing disease and healthcare disparities. Critical variants may be missed if they have a low frequency or are completely absent in European populations, especially as the field shifts its attention towards rare variants, which are more likely to be population-specific^4-10. Additionally, effect sizes and their derived risk prediction scores derived in one population may not accurately extrapolate to other populations^11,12. Here we demonstrate the value of diverse, multi-ethnic participants in large-scale genomic studies. The Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study conducted a GWAS of 26 clinical and behavioural phenotypes in 49,839 non-European individuals. Using strategies tailored for analysis of multi-ethnic and admixed populations, we describe a framework for analysing diverse populations, identify 27 novel loci and 38 secondary signals at known loci, as well as replicate 1,444 GWAS catalogue associations across these traits. Our data show evidence of effect-size heterogeneity across ancestries for published GWAS associations, substantial benefits for fine-mapping using diverse cohorts and insights into clinical implications. In the United States-where minority populations have a disproportionately higher burden of chronic conditions¹³-the lack of representation of diverse populations in genetic research will result in inequitable access to precision medicine for those with the highest burden of disease. We strongly advocate for continued, large genome-wide efforts in diverse populations to maximize genetic discovery and reduce health disparities.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Leptin gene variants and colorectal cancer risk: Sex-specific associations

BACKGROUND

High levels of serum leptin and low levels of serum adiponectin are strongly correlated with obesity, a well-established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Growing evidence suggests that dysregulation of leptin and adiponectin levels may play an etiological role in colorectal carcinogenesis. We evaluated 20 candidate variants in 4 genes previously shown to alter serum leptin and adiponectin levels for associations with obesity (BMI>30 kg/m2) and CRC risk.

METHODS

We analyzed 6,246 CRC cases and 7,714 population-based controls from 11 studies within the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO). Associations of each variant with obesity or CRC were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression models stratified by sex and adjusted for age, a study variable, and the first three principal components of genetic ancestry. Gene-specific False Discovery Rate (FDR)-adjusted p-values <0.05 denoted statistical significance.

RESULTS

Two variants in the leptin gene showed statistically significant associations with CRC among women: LEP rs2167270 (OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.21) and LEP rs4731426 (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.17). These associations remained significant after adjustment for obesity, suggesting that leptin SNPs may influence CRC risk independent of obesity. We observed statistically significant interactions of the leptin variants with hormone replacement therapy (HRT) for CRC risk; these variant associations were strengthened when analyses were restricted to post-menopausal women with low estrogen exposure, as estimated by 'never use' of HRT and/or non-obese BMI. No variants were associated with CRC among men.

CONCLUSIONS

Leptin gene variants may exhibit sex-specific associations with CRC risk. Endogenous and exogenous estrogen exposure may modify the association between these variants, leptin levels, and CRC risk.

Discovery, fine-mapping, and conditional analyses of genetic variants associated with C-reactive protein in multiethnic populations using the Metabochip in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a circulating biomarker indicative of systemic inflammation. We aimed to evaluate genetic associations with CRP levels among non-European-ancestry populations through discovery, fine-mapping and conditional analyses. A total of 30 503 non-European-ancestry participants from 6 studies participating in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology study had serum high-sensitivity CRP measurements and ∼200 000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped on the Metabochip. We evaluated the association between each SNP and log-transformed CRP levels using multivariate linear regression, with additive genetic models adjusted for age, sex, the first four principal components of genetic ancestry, and study-specific factors. Differential linkage disequilibrium patterns between race/ethnicity groups were used to fine-map regions associated with CRP levels. Conditional analyses evaluated for multiple independent signals within genetic regions. One hundred and sixty-three unique variants in 12 loci in overall or race/ethnicity-stratified Metabochip-wide scans reached a Bonferroni-corrected P-value <2.5E-7. Three loci have no (HACL1, OLFML2B) or only limited (PLA2G6) previous associations with CRP levels. Six loci had different top hits in race/ethnicity-specific versus overall analyses. Fine-mapping refined the signal in six loci, particularly in HNF1A. Conditional analyses provided evidence for secondary signals in LEPR, IL1RN and HNF1A, and for multiple independent signals in CRP and APOE. We identified novel variants and loci associated with CRP levels, generalized known CRP associations to a multiethnic study population, refined association signals at several loci and found evidence for multiple independent signals at several well-known loci. This study demonstrates the benefit of conducting inclusive genetic association studies in large multiethnic populations.

Long-term weight loss after colorectal cancer diagnosis is associated with lower survival: The Colon Cancer Family Registry

BACKGROUND

Body weight is associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and survival, but to the authors' knowledge, the impact of long-term postdiagnostic weight change is unclear. Herein, the authors investigated whether weight change over the 5 years after a diagnosis of CRC is associated with survival.

METHODS

CRC cases diagnosed from 1997 to 2008 were identified through 4 population-based cancer registry sites. Participants enrolled within 2 years of diagnosis and reported their height and weight 2 years prior. Follow-up questionnaires were administered approximately 5 years after diagnosis. Associations between change in weight (in kg) or body mass index (BMI) with overall and CRC-specific survival were estimated using Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage of disease, baseline BMI, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, smoking, time between diagnosis and enrollment, and study site.

RESULTS

At the 5-year postdiagnostic survey, 2049 participants reported higher (53%; median plus 5 kg), unchanged (12%), or lower (35%; median -4 kg) weight. Over a median of 5.1 years of subsequent follow-up (range, 0.3-9.9 years), 344 participants died (91 of CRC). Long-term weight loss (per 5 kg) was found to be associated with poorer overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.21) and CRC-specific survival (hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.39). Significantly lower survival was similarly observed for relative weight loss (>5% vs ≤5% change), BMI reduction (per 1 unit), or BMI category change (overweight to normal vs remaining overweight).

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss 5 years after a diagnosis of CRC was found to be significantly associated with decreased long-term survival, suggesting the importance of avoiding weight loss in survivors of CRC. Future research should attempt to further evaluate this association, accounting for whether this weight change was intentional or represents a marker of declining health. Cancer 2017;123:4701-4708. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Timing of Aspirin and Other Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Use Among Patients With Colorectal Cancer in Relation to Tumor Markers and Survival

Purpose Regular use of aspirin is associated with improved survival for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the timing of and the subtype of CRC that would benefit the most from using aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in relation to survival is unclear. Patients and Methods In all, 2,419 patients age 18 to 74 years with incident invasive CRC who were diagnosed from 1997 to 2008 were identified from population-based cancer registries in the United States, Canada, and Australia. Detailed epidemiologic questionnaires were administered at study enrollment and at 5-year follow-up. Survival outcomes were completed through linkage to national death registries. BRAF- and KRAS-mutation status, microsatellite instability, and CpG island methylator phenotype were also evaluated. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival (OS) and CRC-specific survival. Results After a median of 10.8 years of follow-up since diagnosis, 381 deaths (100 as a result of CRC) were observed. Compared with nonusers, postdiagnostic aspirin-only users had more favorable OS (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.95) and CRC-specific survival (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.71), especially among those who initiated aspirin use (OS: HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.86; CRC-specific survival: HR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.80). The association between any NSAID use after diagnosis and OS differed significantly by KRAS-mutation status ( P_interaction = .01). Use of any NSAID after diagnosis was associated with improved OS only among participants with KRAS wild-type tumors (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.80) but not among those with KRAS-mutant tumors (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.96). Conclusion Among long-term CRC survivors, regular use of NSAIDs after CRC diagnosis was significantly associated with improved survival in individuals with KRAS wild-type tumors.

Patterns of Multivitamin Use after Colorectal Cancer Diagnosis in Association with Long-term Survival

Multivitamin use has been related to a modest reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but evidence on its use after diagnosis in relation to survival has been limited. Incident, invasive CRC cases were identified through cancer registries from 1997–2008 and enrolled in four population-based sites of the Colon Cancer Family Registry (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Cancer Care Ontario, Mayo Clinic, and the Universities of Queensland and Melbourne). At enrollment, a standardized interview ascertained multivitamin use in the year prior to diagnosis. A follow-up questionnaire was administered approximately 5 years after baseline, with 2,586 participants providing information on their multivitamin use at both time points. Survival outcomes were identified through linkage to national death registries. Delayed-entry Cox regression was used to estimate the association between patterns of multivitamin use and overall or CRC-specific survival (Hazard Ratio (HR) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI)), with survival time beginning at the 5-year follow-up survey. Models were adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, body mass index, smoking history, stage, study center, and number of days from diagnosis to baseline survey. Over a median 4.8 years after the follow-up survey, 397 participants died (103 from CRC). Multivitamin use was common: at the 5-year follow-up, 37% reported continued use since before diagnosis, 12% had initiated use, 17% had discontinued use, and only 34% participants reported never using multivitamins. Compared to never use of multivitamins, continued use was significantly associated with increased subsequent overall survival (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55–0.91). However, this association did not reach statistical significance for CRC-specific survival (HR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.47–1.24). No significant association was observed for discontinuing (HR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68–1.25) or initiating (HR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.55–1.13) multivitamin use from baseline to follow-up, compared to never users, though initiating use trended towards increased survival. These findings suggest that continuing multivitamin use after a CRC diagnosis may increase survival; replication and details on the specific micronutrients included are needed.

Strategies for Enriching Variant Coverage in Candidate Disease Loci on a Multiethnic Genotyping Array

Investigating genetic architecture of complex traits in ancestrally diverse populations is imperative to understand the etiology of disease. However, the current paucity of genetic research in people of African and Latin American ancestry, Hispanic and indigenous peoples in the United States is likely to exacerbate existing health disparities for many common diseases. The Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology, Phase II (PAGE II), Study was initiated in 2013 by the National Human Genome Research Institute to expand our understanding of complex trait loci in ethnically diverse and well characterized study populations. To meet this goal, the Multi-Ethnic Genotyping Array (MEGA) was designed to substantially improve fine-mapping and functional discovery by increasing variant coverage across multiple ethnicities at known loci for metabolic, cardiovascular, renal, inflammatory, anthropometric, and a variety of lifestyle traits. Studying the frequency distribution of clinically relevant mutations, putative risk alleles, and known functional variants across multiple populations will provide important insight into the genetic architecture of complex diseases and facilitate the discovery of novel, sometimes population-specific, disease associations. DNA samples from 51,650 self-identified African ancestry (17,328), Hispanic/Latino (22,379), Asian/Pacific Islander (8,640), and American Indian (653) and an additional 2,650 participants of either South Asian or European ancestry, and other reference panels have been genotyped on MEGA by PAGE II. MEGA was designed as a new resource for studying ancestrally diverse populations. Here, we describe the methodology for selecting trait-specific content for use in multi-ethnic populations and how enriching MEGA for this content may contribute to deeper biological understanding of the genetic etiology of complex disease.

Abstract LB-360: Association between weight change after colorectal cancer diagnosis and long-term mortality differs by age

Previous studies evaluating the association of weight gain following colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis with mortality have been inconsistent. In this study, we evaluate whether this association differs by age at diagnosis.

Incident, invasive CRC cases were identified from the Puget Sound Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Registry from 1997-2008 and enrolled in the Seattle Colon Cancer Family Registry. A standardized interview (at mean 8 months after diagnosis) ascertained self-reported height and weight two years prior. A follow-up questionnaire was administered approximately 5 years after baseline, with 1,087 participants providing height and weight at both time points. Survival outcomes were assessed through linkage to the National Death Index. Delayed-entry Cox regression was used to estimate the association between change in weight (kg) and all-cause or CRC-specific mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR) and 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI)), with survival time beginning at the 5-year follow-up survey. Models adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, smoking history (ever/never), cancer stage at diagnosis (I-IV, missing), days from diagnosis and baseline survey, and body mass index (kg/m2) at baseline. Analyses were stratified by age at diagnosis (&lt;50 or ?50 years). We also evaluated an interaction term between age at diagnosis (continuous) and per-kg weight change.

Over a median 4.7 years (range 0-9.0) of follow-up after the 5-year survey, 234 participants died (69 from CRC). At the 5-year follow-up, 579 (54%) participants had lost weight (median -5 kg), 114 (11%) reported the same weight, and 385 (36%) had gained weight (median 4 kg).

Among those aged &lt;50 at CRC diagnosis, weight gain at follow-up was significantly associated with higher subsequent all-cause mortality (HR = 1.19 per 5kg, 95% CI: 1.02-1.39), but not CRC-specific mortality. Among those aged ?50 at CRC diagnosis, weight gain at the follow-up time point was significantly associated with higher CRC-specific mortality (HR = 1.34 per 5kg, 95% CI: 1.11-1.61), but not all-cause. The association between weight change and survival differed by age for CRC-specific mortality (P-interaction = 0.01) but not all-cause mortality (P-interaction = 0.82). These findings support the importance of maintaining a healthy body weight after CRC diagnosis, and may suggest the association of weight change with risk of cause-specific death differs in individuals younger versus older than age 50 at diagnosis.

Citation Format: Jonathan M. Kocarnik, Xinwei Hua, Jamaica Robinson, Amanda I. Phipps, Stacey Cohen, Polly A. Newcomb. Association between weight change after colorectal cancer diagnosis and long-term mortality differs by age. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr LB-360.

Relationship of prediagnostic body mass index with survival after colorectal cancer: Stage-specific associations

Higher body mass index (BMI) is a well-established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), but is inconsistently associated with CRC survival. In 6 prospective studies participating in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), 2,249 non-Hispanic white CRC cases were followed for a median 4.5 years after diagnosis, during which 777 died, 554 from CRC-related causes. Associations between prediagnosis BMI and survival (overall and CRC-specific) were evaluated using Cox regression models adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, study and smoking status (current/former/never). The association between BMI category and CRC survival varied by cancer stage at diagnosis (I-IV) for both all-cause (p-interaction = 0.03) and CRC-specific mortality (p-interaction = 0.04). Compared to normal BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m(2) ), overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9) was associated with increased mortality among those with Stage I disease, and decreased mortality among those with Stages II-IV disease. Similarly, obesity (BMI ≥30) was associated with increased mortality among those with Stages I-II disease, and decreased mortality among those with Stages III-IV disease. These results suggest the relationship between BMI and survival after CRC diagnosis differs by stage at diagnosis, and may emphasize the importance of adequate metabolic reserves for colorectal cancer survival in patients with late-stage disease.

Molecular phenotypes of colorectal cancer and potential clinical applications

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a heterogeneous disease, arising from many possible etiological pathways. This heterogeneity can have important implications for CRC prognosis and clinical management. Epidemiological studies of CRC risk and prognosis—as well as clinical trials for the treatment of CRC—must therefore be sensitive to the molecular phenotype of colorectal tumors in patients under study. In this review, we describe four tumor markers that have been widely studied as reflections of CRC heterogeneity: (i) microsatellite instability (MSI) or DNA mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, (ii) the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and somatic mutations in (iii) BRAF and (iv) KRAS. These tumor markers have been used to better characterize CRC epidemiology and, increasingly, may be used to guide clinical decision-making. Going beyond these traditional tumor markers, we also briefly review some more novel markers likely to be of clinical significance. Lastly, recognizing that none of these individual tumor markers are isolated attributes but, rather, a reflection of broader tumor phenotypes, we review some of the hypothesized etiological pathways of CRC development and their associated clinical differences.

Pleiotropic and sex-specific effects of cancer GWAS SNPs on melanoma risk in the population architecture using genomics and epidemiology (PAGE) study

Background

Several regions of the genome show pleiotropic associations with multiple cancers. We sought to evaluate whether 181 single-nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with various cancers in genome-wide association studies were also associated with melanoma risk.

Methods

We evaluated 2,131 melanoma cases and 20,353 controls from three studies in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study (EAGLE-BioVU, MEC, WHI) and two collaborating studies (HPFS, NHS). Overall and sex-stratified analyses were performed across studies.

Results

We observed statistically significant associations with melanoma for two lung cancer SNPs in the TERT-CLPTM1L locus (Bonferroni-corrected p<2.8x10^-4), replicating known pleiotropic effects at this locus. In sex-stratified analyses, we also observed a potential male-specific association between prostate cancer risk variant rs12418451 and melanoma risk (OR=1.22, p=8.0x10^-4). No other variants in our study were associated with melanoma after multiple comparisons adjustment (p>2.8e^-4).

Conclusions

We provide confirmatory evidence of pleiotropic associations with melanoma for two SNPs previously associated with lung cancer, and provide suggestive evidence for a male-specific association with melanoma for prostate cancer variant rs12418451. This SNP is located near TPCN2, an ion transport gene containing SNPs which have been previously associated with hair pigmentation but not melanoma risk. Previous evidence provides biological plausibility for this association, and suggests a complex interplay between ion transport, pigmentation, and melanoma risk that may vary by sex. If confirmed, these pleiotropic relationships may help elucidate shared molecular pathways between cancers and related phenotypes.

Abstract 2187: Colorectal cancer survival is not associated with genetic variants related to risk of other cancers: The GECCO study

Background:

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a large number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRC, at least one of which has also been found to be associated with CRC survival. Furthermore, some SNPs have demonstrated risk associations with multiple cancers (i.e. pleiotropy), including CRC. Together, this raises the possibility that SNPs associated with risk of other cancers may also be associated with survival after a diagnosis of CRC. To investigate this question, we evaluated 526 SNPs reported as strongly associated with risk of any type of cancer in the National Human Genome Research Institute GWAS catalog (as of 11/13/2013) for an association with CRC-specific and overall survival. This study utilized data available from multiple studies in the Genetic Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO).

Methods:

We evaluated 526 SNPs associated with risk of cancers other than CRC in six studies participating in GECCO: the Health Professionals Follow-up Study; the Nurses' Health Study; the Physicians' Health Study; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial; the VITamins And Lifestyle Study; and the Women's Health Initiative. A total of 3,494 colorectal cancer cases were evaluated, of whom 1,223 (35%) died (830 from CRC, 24%) during follow-up (average median follow-up time of 6.8 years). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate the per-allele hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the association between each SNP and CRC-specific or overall survival, adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, study sample, and the first three principal components of genetic ancestry.

Results:

After Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons (P = 0.05/526 = 9.51e-5), no SNPs were statistically significantly associated with either CRC-specific or overall survival. For CRC-specific survival, 35 SNPs showed a nominal association (p&lt;0.05), the strongest being breast cancer SNP rs6504950 in STXBP4 (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.06-1.31, p = 0.0018). For overall survival, 38 SNPs showed a nominal association, the strongest being melanoma SNP rs1393350 in TYR (HR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.06-1.26, p = 0.0012). More SNPs showed a nominal association with survival than expected by chance (0.05*526 = 26 SNPs).

Conclusion:

These preliminary results broadly suggest that CRC-specific and overall survival do not appear to be strongly associated with genetic variants related to incidence for other cancers. However, some suggestive evidence of nominal associations with survival supports further investigation. Planned future steps include the incorporation of two additional studies (Cancer Prevention Study II; Diet, Activity, and Lifestyle Study), as well as analyses stratified by factors such as cancer site, stage at diagnosis, and sex.

Citation Format: Jonathan M. Kocarnik, Michael N. Passarelli, Amanda I. Phipps, Andrew T. Chan, Manish Gala, Amit Joshi, Peter T. Campbell, Martha L. Slattery, John Potter, Emily White, Sonja Berndt, Ulrike Peters, Polly A. Newcomb. Colorectal cancer survival is not associated with genetic variants related to risk of other cancers: The GECCO study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2014 Apr 5-9; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2014;74(19 Suppl):Abstract nr 2187. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2014-2187

No evidence of gene-calcium interactions from genome-wide analysis of colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Calcium intake may reduce risk of colorectal cancer, but the mechanisms remain unclear. Studies of interaction between calcium intake and SNPs in calcium-related pathways have yielded inconsistent results.

METHODS

To identify gene-calcium interactions, we tested interactions between approximately 2.7 million SNPs across the genome with self-reported calcium intake (from dietary or supplemental sources) in 9,006 colorectal cancer cases and 9,503 controls of European ancestry. To test for multiplicative interactions, we used multivariable logistic regression and defined statistical significance using the conventional genome-wide α = 5E-08.

RESULTS

After accounting for multiple comparisons, there were no statistically significant SNP interactions with total, dietary, or supplemental calcium intake.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence of SNP interactions with calcium intake for colorectal cancer risk in a large population of 18,509 individuals.

IMPACT

These results suggest that in genome-wide analysis common genetic variants do not strongly modify the association between calcium intake and colorectal cancer in European populations.

Cross-cancer pleiotropic analysis of endometrial cancer: PAGE and E2C2 consortia

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a large number of cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), several of which have been associated with multiple cancer sites suggesting pleiotropic effects and shared biological mechanisms across some cancers. We hypothesized that SNPs associated with other cancers may be additionally associated with endometrial cancer. We examined 213 SNPs previously associated with 14 other cancers for their associations with endometrial cancer in 3758 endometrial cancer cases and 5966 controls of European ancestry from two consortia: Population Architecture Using Genomics and Epidemiology and the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. Study-specific logistic regression estimates adjusted for age, body mass index and the most significant principal components of genetic ancestry were combined using fixed-effect meta-analysis to evaluate the association between each SNP and endometrial cancer risk. A Bonferroni-corrected P value of 2.35×10(-4) was used to determine statistical significance of the associations. SNP rs7679673, ~6.3kb upstream of TET2 and previously reported to be associated with prostate cancer risk, was associated with endometrial cancer risk in the direction opposite to that for prostate cancer [meta-analysis odds ratio = 0.87 (per copy of the C allele), 95% confidence interval = 0.81, 0.93; P = 7.37×10(-5)] with no evidence of heterogeneity across studies (P heterogeneity = 0.66). This pleiotropic analysis is the first to suggest TET2 as a susceptibility locus for endometrial cancer.

Pleiotropic effects of genetic risk variants for other cancers on colorectal cancer risk: PAGE, GECCO and CCFR consortia

OBJECTIVE

Genome-wide association studies have identified a large number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with a wide array of cancer sites. Several of these variants demonstrate associations with multiple cancers, suggesting pleiotropic effects and shared biological mechanisms across some cancers. We hypothesised that SNPs previously associated with other cancers may additionally be associated with colorectal cancer. In a large-scale study, we examined 171 SNPs previously associated with 18 different cancers for their associations with colorectal cancer.

DESIGN

We examined 13 338 colorectal cancer cases and 40 967 controls from three consortia: Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE), Genetic Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer (GECCO), and the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR). Study-specific logistic regression results, adjusted for age, sex, principal components of genetic ancestry, and/or study specific factors (as relevant) were combined using fixed-effect meta-analyses to evaluate the association between each SNP and colorectal cancer risk. A Bonferroni-corrected p value of 2.92×10(-4) was used to determine statistical significance of the associations.

RESULTS

Two correlated SNPs--rs10090154 and rs4242382--in Region 1 of chromosome 8q24, a prostate cancer susceptibility region, demonstrated statistically significant associations with colorectal cancer risk. The most significant association was observed with rs4242382 (meta-analysis OR=1.12; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.18; p=1.74×10(-5)), which also demonstrated similar associations across racial/ethnic populations and anatomical sub-sites.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to clearly demonstrate Region 1 of chromosome 8q24 as a susceptibility locus for colorectal cancer; thus, adding colorectal cancer to the list of cancer sites linked to this particular multicancer risk region at 8q24.

Pleiotropic associations of risk variants identified for other cancers with lung cancer risk: the PAGE and TRICL consortia

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies have identified hundreds of genetic variants associated with specific cancers. A few of these risk regions have been associated with more than one cancer site; however, a systematic evaluation of the associations between risk variants for other cancers and lung cancer risk has yet to be performed.

METHODS

We included 18023 patients with lung cancer and 60543 control subjects from two consortia, Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) and Transdisciplinary Research in Cancer of the Lung (TRICL). We examined 165 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were previously associated with at least one of 16 non-lung cancer sites. Study-specific logistic regression results underwent meta-analysis, and associations were also examined by race/ethnicity, histological cell type, sex, and smoking status. A Bonferroni-corrected P value of 2.5×10(-5) was used to assign statistical significance.

RESULTS

The breast cancer SNP LSP1 rs3817198 was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.14; P = 2.8×10(-6)). This association was strongest for women with adenocarcinoma (P = 1.2×10(-4)) and not statistically significant in men (P = .14) with this cell type (P het by sex = .10). Two glioma risk variants, TERT rs2853676 and CDKN2BAS1 rs4977756, which are located in regions previously associated with lung cancer, were associated with increased risk of adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.22; P = 1.1×10(-8)) and squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.13; CI = 1.07 to 1.19; P = 2.5×10(-5)), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate a novel pleiotropic association between the breast cancer LSP1 risk region marked by variant rs3817198 and lung cancer risk.

Multiancestral analysis of inflammation-related genetic variants and C-reactive protein in the population architecture using genomics and epidemiology study

BACKGROUND

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a biomarker of inflammation. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRP concentrations and inflammation-related traits such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and obesity. We aimed to replicate previous CRP-SNP associations, assess whether these associations generalize to additional race/ethnicity groups, and evaluate inflammation-related SNPs for a potentially pleiotropic association with CRP.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We selected and analyzed 16 CRP-associated and 250 inflammation-related GWAS SNPs among 40 473 African American, American Indian, Asian/Pacific Islander, European American, and Hispanic participants from 7 studies collaborating in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study. Fixed-effect meta-analyses combined study-specific race/ethnicity-stratified linear regression estimates to evaluate the association between each SNP and high-sensitivity CRP. Overall, 18 SNPs in 8 loci were significantly associated with CRP (Bonferroni-corrected P<3.1×10(-3) for replication, P<2.0×10(-4) for pleiotropy): Seven of these were specific to European Americans, while 9 additionally generalized to African Americans (1), Hispanics (5), or both (3); 1 SNP was seen only in African Americans and Hispanics. Two SNPs in the CELSR2/PSRC1/SORT1 locus showed a potentially novel association with CRP: rs599839 (P=2.0×10(-6)) and rs646776 (P=3.1×10(-5)).

CONCLUSIONS

We replicated 16 SNP-CRP associations, 10 of which generalized to African Americans and/or Hispanics. We also identified potentially novel pleiotropic associations with CRP for two SNPs previously associated with coronary artery disease and/or low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. These findings demonstrate the benefit of evaluating genotype-phenotype associations in multiple race/ethnicity groups and looking for pleiotropic relationships among SNPs previously associated with related phenotypes.

Pleiotropy of cancer susceptibility variants on the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: the PAGE consortium

BACKGROUND

Risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is higher among individuals with a family history or a prior diagnosis of other cancers. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have suggested that some genetic susceptibility variants are associated with multiple complex traits (pleiotropy).

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether common risk variants identified in cancer GWAS may also increase the risk of developing NHL as the first primary cancer.

METHODS

As part of the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) consortium, 113 cancer risk variants were analyzed in 1,441 NHL cases and 24,183 controls from three studies (BioVU, Multiethnic Cohort Study, Women's Health Initiative) for their association with the risk of overall NHL and common subtypes [diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), follicular lymphoma (FL), chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL)] using an additive genetic model adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity. Study-specific results for each variant were meta-analyzed across studies.

RESULTS

The analysis of NHL subtype-specific GWAS SNPs and overall NHL suggested a shared genetic susceptibility between FL and DLBCL, particularly involving variants in the major histocompatibility complex region (rs6457327 in 6p21.33: FL OR=1.29, p=0.013; DLBCL OR=1.23, p=0.013; NHL OR=1.22, p=5.9 × E-05). In the pleiotropy analysis, six risk variants for other cancers were associated with NHL risk, including variants for lung (rs401681 in TERT: OR per C allele=0.89, p=3.7 × E-03; rs4975616 in TERT: OR per A allele=0.90, p=0.01; rs3131379 in MSH5: OR per T allele=1.16, p=0.03), prostate (rs7679673 in TET2: OR per C allele=0.89, p=5.7 × E-03; rs10993994 in MSMB: OR per T allele=1.09, p=0.04), and breast (rs3817198 in LSP1: OR per C allele=1.12, p=0.01) cancers, but none of these associations remained significant after multiple test correction.

CONCLUSION

This study does not support strong pleiotropic effects of non-NHL cancer risk variants in NHL etiology; however, larger studies are warranted.