Treatment with inhaled Argon: a systematic review of pre-clinical and clinical studies with meta-analysis on neuroprotective effect

BACKGROUND

Argon (Ar) has been proposed as a potential therapeutic agent in multiple clinical conditions, specifically in organ protection. However, conflicting data on pre-clinical models, together with a great variability in Ar administration protocols and outcome assessments, have been reported. The aim of this study was to review evidence on treatment with Ar, with an extensive investigation on its neuroprotective effect, and to summarise all tested administration protocols.

METHODS

Using the PubMed database, all existing pre-clinical and clinical studies on the treatment with Ar were systematically reviewed (registration: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/7983D). Study titles and abstracts were screened, extracting data from relevant studies post full-text review. Exclusion criteria included absence of full text and non-English language. Furthermore, meta-analysis was also performed to assess Ar potential as neuroprotectant agent in different clinical conditions: cardiac arrest, traumatic brain injury, ischemic stroke, perinatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, subarachnoid haemorrhage. Standardised mean differences for neurological, cognitive and locomotor, histological, and physiological measures were evaluated, through appropriate tests, clinical, and laboratory variables. In vivo studies were evaluated for risk of bias using the Systematic Review Center for Laboratory Animal Experimentation tool, while in vitro studies underwent assessment with a tool developed by the Office of Health Assessment and Translation.

FINDINGS

The systematic review detected 60 experimental studies (16 in vitro, 7 ex vivo, 31 in vivo, 6 with both in vitro and in vivo) investigating the role of Ar. Only one clinical study was found. Data from six in vitro and nineteen in vivo studies were included in the meta-analyses. In pre-clinical models, Ar administration resulted in improved neurological, cognitive and locomotor, and histological outcomes without any change in physiological parameters (i.e., absence of adverse events).

INTERPRETATION

This systematic review and meta-analysis based on experimental studies supports the neuroprotective effect of Ar, thus providing a rationale for potential translation of Ar treatment in humans. Despite adherence to established guidelines and methodologies, limitations in data availability prevented further analyses to investigate potential sources of heterogeneity due to study design.

FUNDING

This study was funded in part by Italian Ministry of Health-Current researchIRCCS and by Ministero della Salute Italiano, Ricerca Finalizzata, project no. RF 2019-12371416.

A non-invasive continuous and real-time volumetric monitoring in spontaneous breathing subjects based on bioimpedance-ExSpiron®Xi: a validation study in healthy volunteers

Tidal volume (TV) monitoring breath-by-breath is not available at bedside in non-intubated patients. However, TV monitoring may be useful to evaluate the work of breathing. A non-invasive device based on bioimpedance provides continuous and real-time volumetric tidal estimation during spontaneous breathing. We performed a prospective study in healthy volunteers aimed at evaluating the accuracy, the precision and the trending ability of measurements of ExSpiron®Xi as compared with the gold standard (i.e. spirometry). Further, we explored whether the differences between the 2 devices would be improved by the calibration of ExSpiron®Xi with a pre-determined tidal volume. Analysis accounted for the repeated nature of measurements within each subject. We enrolled 13 healthy volunteers, including 5 men and 8 women. Tidal volume, TV/ideal body weight (IBW) and respiratory rate (RR) measured with spirometer (TVSpirometer) and with ExSpiron®Xi (TVExSpiron) showed a robust correlation, while minute ventilation (MV) showed a weak correlation, in both non/calibrated and calibrated steps. The analysis of the agreement showed that non-calibrated TVExSpiron underestimated TVspirometer, while in the calibrated steps, TVExSpiron overestimated TVspirometer. The calibration procedure did not reduce the average absolute difference (error) between TVSpirometer and TVExSpiron. This happened similarly for TV/IBW and MV, while RR showed high accuracy and precision. The trending ability was excellent for TV, TV/IBW and RR. The concordance rate (CR) was >95% in both calibrated and non-calibrated measurements. The trending ability of minute ventilation was limited. Absolute error for both calibrated and not calibrated values of TV, TV/IBW and MV accounting for repeated measurements was variably associated with BMI, height and smoking status. Conclusions: Non-invasive TV, TV/IBW and RR estimation by ExSpiron®Xi was strongly correlated with tidal ventilation according to the gold standard spirometer technique. This data was not confirmed for MV. The calibration of the device did not improve its performance. Although the accuracy of ExSpiron®Xi was mild and the precision was limited for TV, TV/IBW and MV, the trending ability of the device was strong specifically for TV, TV/IBW and RR. This makes ExSpiron®Xi a non-invasive monitoring system that may detect real-time tidal volume ventilation changes and then suggest the need to better optimize the patient ventilatory support.

Continuous vs intermittent Non-Invasive blood pressure MONitoring in preventing postoperative organ failure (niMON): study protocol for an open-label, multicenter randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure has become one of the most important vital signs to monitor in the perioperative setting. Recently, the Italian Society of Anesthesia Analgesia Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI) recommended, with low level of evidence, continuous monitoring of blood pressure during the intraoperative period. Continuous monitoring allows for early detection of hypotension, which may potentially lead to a timely treatment. Whether the ability to detect more hypotension events by continuous noninvasive blood pressure (C-NiBP) monitoring can improve patient outcomes is still unclear. Here, we report the rationale, study design, and statistical analysis plan of the niMON trial, which aims to evaluate the effect of intraoperative C-NiBP compared with intermittent (I-NiBP) monitoring on postoperative myocardial and renal injury.

METHODS

The niMon trial is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, international, open-label, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial. Eligible patients will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive C-NiBP or I-NiBP as an intraoperative monitoring strategy. The proportion of patients who develop myocardial injury in the first postoperative week is the primary outcome; the secondary outcomes are the proportions of patients who develop postoperative AKI, in-hospital mortality rate, and 30 and 90 postoperative days events. A sample size of 1265 patients will provide a power of 80% to detect a 4% absolute reduction in the rate of the primary outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The niMON data will provide evidence to guide the choice of the most appropriate intraoperative blood pressure monitoring strategy.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trial Registration: NCT05496322, registered on the 5th of August 2023.

Hemodynamic failure and graft dysfunction after lung transplant: A possible clinical continuum with immediate and long-term consequences

INTRODUCTION

The postoperative hemodynamic management after lung transplant (LUTX) is guided by limited evidence. We aimed to describe and evaluate risk factors and outcomes of postoperative vasoactive support of LUTX recipients.

METHODS

In a single-center retrospective analysis of consecutive adult LUTX, two cohorts were identified: (1) patients needing prolonged vasoactive support (>12 h from ICU admission) (VASO+); (2) or not (VASO-). Postoperative hemodynamic characteristics were thoroughly analyzed. Risk factors and outcomes of VASO+ versus VASO- cohorts were assessed by multivariate logistic regression and propensity score matching.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-eight patients were included (86 (62%) VASO+ versus 52 (38%) VASO-). Vasopressors (epinephrine, norepinephrine, dopamine) were used in the first postoperative days (vasoactive inotropic score at 12 h: 6 [4-12]), while inodilators (dobutamine, levosimendan) later. Length of vasoactive support was 3 [2-4] days. Independent predictors of vasoactive use were: LUTX indication different from cystic fibrosis (p = .003), higher Oto score (p = .020), longer cold ischemia time (p = .031), but not preoperative cardiac catheterization. VASO+ patients showed concomitant hemodynamic and graft impairment, with longer mechanical ventilation (p = .010), higher primary graft dysfunction (PGD) grade at 72 h (PGD grade > 0 65% vs. 31%, p = .004, OR 4.2 [1.54-11.2]), longer ICU (p < .001) and hospital stay (p = .013). Levosimendan as a second-line inodilator appeared safe.

CONCLUSIONS

Vasoactive support is frequently necessary after LUTX, especially in recipients of grafts of lesser quality. Postoperative hemodynamic dysfunction requiring vasopressor support and graft dysfunction may represent a clinical continuum with immediate and long-term consequences. Further studies may elucidate if this represents a possible treatable condition.

Validation of a tool for estimating clinician recognition of ARDS using data from the international LUNG SAFE study

Under-recognition of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) by clinicians is an important barrier to adoption of evidence-based practices such as low tidal volume ventilation. The burden created by the COVID-19 pandemic makes it even more critical to develop scalable data-driven tools to improve ARDS recognition. The objective of this study was to validate a tool for accurately estimating clinician ARDS recognition rates using discrete clinical characteristics easily available in electronic health records. We conducted a secondary analysis of 2,705 ARDS and 1,261 non-ARDS hypoxemic patients in the international LUNG SAFE cohort. The primary outcome was validation of a tool that estimates clinician ARDS recognition rates from health record data. Secondary outcomes included the relative impact of clinical characteristics on tidal volume delivery and clinician documentation of ARDS. In both ARDS and non-ARDS patients, greater height was associated with lower standardized tidal volume (mL/kg PBW) (ARDS: adjusted β = -4.1, 95% CI -4.5 --3.6; non-ARDS: β = -7.7, 95% CI -8.8 --6.7, P<0.00009 [where α = 0.01/111 with the Bonferroni correction]). Standardized tidal volume has already been normalized for patient height, and furthermore, height was not associated with clinician documentation of ARDS. Worsening hypoxemia was associated with both increased clinician documentation of ARDS (β = -0.074, 95% CI -0.093 --0.056, P<0.00009) and lower standardized tidal volume (β = 1.3, 95% CI 0.94-1.6, P<0.00009) in ARDS patients. Increasing chest imaging opacities, plateau pressure, and clinician documentation of ARDS also were associated with lower tidal volume in ARDS patients. Our EHR-based data-driven approach using height, gender, ARDS documentation, and lowest standardized tidal volume yielded estimates of clinician ARDS recognition rates of 54% for mild, 63% for moderate, and 73% for severe ARDS. Our tool replicated clinician-reported ARDS recognition in the LUNG SAFE study, enabling the identification of ARDS patients at high risk of being unrecognized. Our approach can be generalized to other conditions for which there is a need to increase adoption of evidence-based care.

Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990-2019: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM_2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM_2.5- and ozone-related disease. Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM_2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM_2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990-2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010-2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones. Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM_2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts.

Weaning from mechanical ventilation in intensive care units across 50 countries (WEAN SAFE): a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Current management practices and outcomes in weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation are poorly understood. We aimed to describe the epidemiology, management, timings, risk for failure, and outcomes of weaning in patients requiring at least 2 days of invasive mechanical ventilation.

METHODS

WEAN SAFE was an international, multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study done in 481 intensive care units in 50 countries. Eligible participants were older than 16 years, admitted to a participating intensive care unit, and receiving mechanical ventilation for 2 calendar days or longer. We defined weaning initiation as the first attempt to separate a patient from the ventilator, successful weaning as no reintubation or death within 7 days of extubation, and weaning eligibility criteria based on positive end-expiratory pressure, fractional concentration of oxygen in inspired air, and vasopressors. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients successfully weaned at 90 days. Key secondary outcomes included weaning duration, timing of weaning events, factors associated with weaning delay and weaning failure, and hospital outcomes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03255109.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 4, 2017, and June 25, 2018, 10 232 patients were screened for eligibility, of whom 5869 were enrolled. 4523 (77·1%) patients underwent at least one separation attempt and 3817 (65·0%) patients were successfully weaned from ventilation at day 90. 237 (4·0%) patients were transferred before any separation attempt, 153 (2·6%) were transferred after at least one separation attempt and not successfully weaned, and 1662 (28·3%) died while invasively ventilated. The median time from fulfilling weaning eligibility criteria to first separation attempt was 1 day (IQR 0-4), and 1013 (22·4%) patients had a delay in initiating first separation of 5 or more days. Of the 4523 (77·1%) patients with separation attempts, 2927 (64·7%) had a short wean (≤1 day), 457 (10·1%) had intermediate weaning (2-6 days), 433 (9·6%) required prolonged weaning (≥7 days), and 706 (15·6%) had weaning failure. Higher sedation scores were independently associated with delayed initiation of weaning. Delayed initiation of weaning and higher sedation scores were independently associated with weaning failure. 1742 (31·8%) of 5479 patients died in the intensive care unit and 2095 (38·3%) of 5465 patients died in hospital.

INTERPRETATION

In critically ill patients receiving at least 2 days of invasive mechanical ventilation, only 65% were weaned at 90 days. A better understanding of factors that delay the weaning process, such as delays in weaning initiation or excessive sedation levels, might improve weaning success rates.

FUNDING

European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, European Respiratory Society.

High-flow nasal oxygen versus conventional oxygen therapy in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and mild hypoxaemia: a randomised controlled trial

RATIONALE

In patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and mild hypoxaemia, the clinical benefit of high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) remains unclear. We aimed to examine whether HFNO compared with conventional oxygen therapy (COT) could prevent escalation of respiratory support in this patient population.

METHODS

In this multicentre, randomised, parallel-group, open-label trial, patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) ≤92% who required oxygen therapy were randomised to HFNO or COT. The primary outcome was the rate of escalation of respiratory support (ie, continuous positive airway pressure, non-invasive ventilation or invasive mechanical ventilation) within 28 days. Among secondary outcomes, clinical recovery was defined as the improvement in oxygenation (SpO2 ≥96% with fractional inspired oxygen (FiO2) ≤30% or partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide/FiO2 ratio >300 mm Hg).

RESULTS

Among 364 randomised patients, 55 (30.3%) of 181 patients assigned to HFNO and 70 (38.6%) of 181 patients assigned to COT underwent escalation of respiratory support, with no significant difference between groups (absolute risk difference -8.2% (95% CI -18% to +1.4%); RR 0.79 (95% CI 0.59 to 1.05); p=0.09). There was no significant difference in clinical recovery (69.1% vs 60.8%; absolute risk difference 8.2% (95% CI -1.5% to +18.0%), RR 1.14 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.32)), intensive care unit admission (7.7% vs 11.0%, absolute risk difference -3.3% (95% CI -9.3% to +2.6%)), and in hospital length of stay (11 (IQR 8-17) vs 11 (IQR 7-20) days, absolute risk difference -1.0% (95% CI -3.1% to +1.1%)).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and mild hypoxaemia, the use of HFNO did not significantly reduce the likelihood of escalation of respiratory support.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04655638.

Mechanical ventilation in patients with cardiogenic pulmonary edema: a sub-analysis of the LUNG SAFE study

BACKGROUND

Patients with acute respiratory failure caused by cardiogenic pulmonary edema (CPE) may require mechanical ventilation that can cause further lung damage. Our aim was to determine the impact of ventilatory settings on CPE mortality.

METHODS

Patients from the LUNG SAFE cohort, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients undergoing mechanical ventilation, were studied. Relationships between ventilatory parameters and outcomes (ICU discharge/hospital mortality) were assessed using latent mixture analysis and a marginal structural model.

RESULTS

From 4499 patients, 391 meeting CPE criteria (median age 70 [interquartile range 59-78], 40% female) were included. ICU and hospital mortality were 34% and 40%, respectively. ICU survivors were younger (67 [57-77] vs 74 [64-80] years, p < 0.001) and had lower driving (12 [8-16] vs 15 [11-17] cmH2O, p < 0.001), plateau (20 [15-23] vs 22 [19-26] cmH2O, p < 0.001) and peak (21 [17-27] vs 26 [20-32] cmH2O, p < 0.001) pressures. Latent mixture analysis of patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation on ICU day 1 revealed a subgroup ventilated with high pressures with lower probability of being discharged alive from the ICU (hazard ratio [HR] 0.79 [95% confidence interval 0.60-1.05], p = 0.103) and increased hospital mortality (HR 1.65 [1.16-2.36], p = 0.005). In a marginal structural model, driving pressures in the first week (HR 1.12 [1.06-1.18], p < 0.001) and tidal volume after day 7 (HR 0.69 [0.52-0.93], p = 0.015) were related to survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher airway pressures in invasively ventilated patients with CPE are related to mortality. These patients may be exposed to an increased risk of ventilator-induced lung injury. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02010073.

Improving the prognostic value of multimorbidity through the integration of selected biomarkers to the comprehensive geriatric assessment: An observational retrospective monocentric study

Background

Multimorbidity (MM) burdens individuals and healthcare systems, since it increases polypharmacy, dependency, hospital admissions, healthcare costs, and mortality. Several attempts have been made to determine an operational definition of MM and to quantify its severity. However, the lack of knowledge regarding its pathophysiology prevented the estimation of its severity in terms of outcomes. Polypharmacy and functional impairment are associated with MM. However, it is unclear how inappropriate drug decision-making could affect both conditions. In this context, promising circulating biomarkers and DNA methylation tools have been proposed as potential mortality predictors for multiple age-related diseases. We hypothesize that a comprehensive characterization of patients with MM that includes the measure of epigenetic and selected circulating biomarkers in the medical history, in addition to the functional capacity, could improve the prognosis of their long-term mortality.

Methods

This monocentric retrospective observational study was conducted as part of a project funded by the Italian Ministry of Health titled “imProving the pROgnostic value of MultimOrbidity through the inTegration of selected biomarkErs to the comprehensive geRiatric Assessment (PROMOTERA).” This study will examine the methylation levels of thousands of CpG sites and the levels of selected circulating biomarkers in the blood and plasma samples of older hospitalized patients with MM (n = 1,070, age ≥ 65 years) recruited by the Reportage Project between 2011 and 2019. Multiple statistical approaches will be utilized to integrate newly measured biomarkers into clinical, demographic, and functional data, thus improving the prediction of mortality for up to 10 years.

Discussion

This study's results are expected to: (i) identify the clinical, biological, demographic, and functional factors associated with distinct patterns of MM; (ii) improve the prognostic accuracy of MM patterns in relation to death, hospitalization-related outcomes, and onset of new comorbidities; (iii) define the epigenetic signatures of MM; (iv) construct multidimensional algorithms to predict negative health outcomes in both the overall population and specific disease and functional patterns; and (v) expand our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the pathophysiology of MM.

Association of COVID-19 Vaccinations With Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Outcome of Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia in Lombardy, Italy

Importance

Data on the association of COVID-19 vaccination with intensive care unit (ICU) admission and outcomes of patients with SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonia are scarce.

Objective

To evaluate whether COVID-19 vaccination is associated with preventing ICU admission for COVID-19 pneumonia and to compare baseline characteristics and outcomes of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients admitted to an ICU.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study on regional data sets reports: (1) daily number of administered vaccines and (2) data of all consecutive patients admitted to an ICU in Lombardy, Italy, from August 1 to December 15, 2021 (Delta variant predominant). Vaccinated patients received either mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) or adenoviral vector vaccines (ChAdOx1-S or Ad26.COV2). Incident rate ratios (IRRs) were computed from August 1, 2021, to January 31, 2022; ICU and baseline characteristics and outcomes of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients admitted to an ICU were analyzed from August 1 to December 15, 2021.

Exposures

COVID-19 vaccination status (no vaccination, mRNA vaccine, adenoviral vector vaccine).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The incidence IRR of ICU admission was evaluated, comparing vaccinated people with unvaccinated, adjusted for age and sex. The baseline characteristics at ICU admission of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients were investigated. The association between vaccination status at ICU admission and mortality at ICU and hospital discharge were also studied, adjusting for possible confounders.

Results

Among the 10 107 674 inhabitants of Lombardy, Italy, at the time of this study, the median [IQR] age was 48 [28-64] years and 5 154 914 (51.0%) were female. Of the 7 863 417 individuals who were vaccinated (median [IQR] age: 53 [33-68] years; 4 010 343 [51.4%] female), 6 251 417 (79.5%) received an mRNA vaccine, 550 439 (7.0%) received an adenoviral vector vaccine, and 1 061 561 (13.5%) received a mix of vaccines and 4 497 875 (57.2%) were boosted. Compared with unvaccinated people, IRR of individuals who received an mRNA vaccine within 120 days from the last dose was 0.03 (95% CI, 0.03-0.04; P < .001), whereas IRR of individuals who received an adenoviral vector vaccine after 120 days was 0.21 (95% CI, 0.19-0.24; P < .001). There were 553 patients admitted to an ICU for COVID-19 pneumonia during the study period: 139 patients (25.1%) were vaccinated and 414 (74.9%) were unvaccinated. Compared with unvaccinated patients, vaccinated patients were older (median [IQR]: 72 [66-76] vs 60 [51-69] years; P < .001), primarily male individuals (110 patients [79.1%] vs 252 patients [60.9%]; P < .001), with more comorbidities (median [IQR]: 2 [1-3] vs 0 [0-1] comorbidities; P < .001) and had higher ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen (Pao2) and fraction of inspiratory oxygen (FiO2) at ICU admission (median [IQR]: 138 [100-180] vs 120 [90-158] mm Hg; P = .007). Factors associated with ICU and hospital mortality were higher age, premorbid heart disease, lower Pao2/FiO2 at ICU admission, and female sex (this factor only for ICU mortality). ICU and hospital mortality were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, mRNA and adenoviral vector vaccines were associated with significantly lower risk of ICU admission for COVID-19 pneumonia. ICU and hospital mortality were not associated with vaccinated status. These findings suggest a substantial reduction of the risk of developing COVID-19-related severe acute respiratory failure requiring ICU admission among vaccinated people.

Results of a prospective observational study of autologous peripheral blood mononuclear cell therapy for no-option critical limb-threatening ischemia and severe diabetic foot ulcers

Background

Cell therapy with autologous peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PB-MNCs) may help restore limb perfusion in patients with diabetes mellitus and critical limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) deemed not eligible for revascularization procedures and consequently at risk for major amputation (no-option). Fundamental is to establish its clinical value and to identify candidates with a greater benefit over time. Assessing the frequency of PB circulating angiogenic cells and extracellular vesicles (EVs) may help in guiding candidate selection.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, non-controlled, observational study on no-option CLTI diabetic patients that underwent intramuscular PB-MNCs therapy, which consisted of more cell treatments repeated a maximum of three times. The primary endpoint was amputation rate at 1 year following the first treatment with PB-MNCs. We evaluated ulcer healing, walking capability, and mortality during the follow-up period. We assessed angiogenic cells and EVs at baseline and after each cell treatment, according to primary outcome and tissue perfusion at the last treatment [measured as transcutaneous oxygen pressure (TcPO₂)].

Results

50 patients were consecutively enrolled and the primary endpoint was 16%. TcPO₂ increased after PB-MNCs therapy (17.2 ± 11.6 vs 39.1 ± 21.8 mmHg, p < .0001), and ulcers healed with back-to-walk were observed in 60% of the study population (88% of survivors) during follow-up (median 1.5 years). Patients with a high level of TcPO₂ (≥ 40 mmHg) after the last treatment showed a high frequency of small EVs at enrollment.

Conclusions

In no-option CLTI diabetic patients, PB-MNCs therapy led to an improvement in tissue perfusion, a high rate of healing, and back-to-walk. Coupling circulating cellular markers of angiogenesis could help in the identification of patients with a better clinical benefit over time.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01629-y.

Longitudinal assessment of renal function after lung transplantation for cystic fibrosis: transition from post-operative acute kidney injury to acute kidney disease and chronic kidney failure

INTRODUCTION

The clinical trajectory of post-operative acute kidney injury (AKI) following lung transplantation for cystic fibrosis is unknown.

METHODS

Incidence and risk factors for post-operative AKI, acute kidney disease (AKD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were retrospectively analyzed in cystic fibrosis patients undergoing lung transplantation. Logistic regressions, Chi-square, Cuzick rank tests, and Cox-proportional hazard models were used.

RESULTS

Eighty-three patients were included. Creatinine peaked 3[2-4] days after transplantation, with 15(18%), 15(18%), and 20(24%) patients having post-operative AKI stages 1, 2, and 3, while 15(18%), 19(23%) and 10(12%) developed AKD stage 1, stage 2 and 3, respectively. Higher AKI stage was associated with worsening AKD (p = 0.009) and CKD (p = 0.015) stages. Of the 50 patients with AKI, 32(66%) transitioned to AKD stage > 0, and then 27 (56%) to CKD stage > 1. Female sex, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support as a bridge to lung transplant and at the end of the surgery, the use of intraoperative blood components, and cold-ischemia time were associated with increased risk of post-operative AKI and AKD. Higher AKI stage prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation (p = 0.0001), ICU stay (p = 0.0001), and hospital stay (p = 0.0001), and increased the incidence of primary graft dysfunction (p = 0.035). Both AKI and AKD stages > 2 worsened long-term survival with risk ratios of 3.71 (1.34-10.2), p = 0.0131 and 2.65(1.02-6.87), p = 0.0443, respectively.

DISCUSSION

AKI is frequent in cystic fibrosis patients undergoing lung transplantation, it often evolves to AKD and to chronic kidney disease, thereby worsening short- and long-term outcomes.

Presence of comorbidities alters management and worsens outcome of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Background

The impact of underlying comorbidities on the clinical presentation, management and outcomes in patients with ARDS is poorly understood and deserves further investigation.

Objectives

We examined these issue in patients with ARDS enrolled in the Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE (LUNG SAFE) study.

Methods

In this secondary analysis of the patient cohort enrolled in the LUNG SAFE study, our primary objective was to determine the frequency, and impact of comorbidities on the management and ICU survival of patients with ARDS. Secondary outcomes relating to comorbidities included their impact on ventilatory management, the development of organ failures, and on end-of-life care.

Results

Of 2813 patients in the study population, 1692 (60%) had 1 or more comorbidities, of whom 631 (22.4%) had chronic respiratory impairment, 290 (10.3%) had congestive heart failure, 286 (10.2%) had chronic renal failure, 112 (4%) had chronic liver failure, 584 (20.8%) had immune incompetence, and 613 (21.8%) had diabetes. Multiple comorbidities were frequently present, with 423 (25%) having 2 and 182 (11%) having at least 3 or more comorbidities. The use of invasive ventilation (1379 versus 998, 82 versus 89%), neuromuscular blockade (301 versus 249, 18 versus 22%), prone positioning (97 versus 104, 6 versus 9%) and ECMO (32 versus 46, 2 versus 4%) were each significantly reduced in patients with comorbidities as compared to patients with no comorbidity (1692 versus 1121, 60 versus 40%). ICU mortality increased from 27% (n = 303) in patients with no comorbidity to 39% (n = 661) in patients with any comorbidity. Congestive heart failure, chronic liver failure and immune incompetence were each independently associated with increased ICU mortality. Chronic liver failure and immune incompetence were independently associated with more decisions to limitation of life supporting measures.

Conclusions

Most patients with ARDS have significant comorbidities, they receive less aggressive care, and have worse outcomes. Enhancing the care of these patients must be a priority for future clinical studies.

Trial registration LUNG-SAFE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02010073.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-01015-7.

Response to BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine among healthcare workers in Italy: a 3-month follow-up

This study investigated the response to BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine among healthcare workers (HCWs) in an Italian teaching hospital. 444 participants were surveyed with either multiple RT-PCR assays for detection of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid in nasopharyngeal swabs or serology testing for the research of virus-specific immunoglobulins. Adverse events following immunization (AEFI) were reported. Two weeks after the first dose anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies exceeded reactivity cut-off in 82.5% the participants. Four HCWs tested positive at nasopharyngeal swab after 3 months. More than three-quarters reported AEFIs. Our findings offer an insight regarding the vaccine response after 3 months from its administration, with a special focus on effectiveness data, as well as the type and number of AEFIs complained by HCW recipients. The presented study may serve as reference for future research which will be necessary to explore the long-term safety of this vaccine, especially in population at high risk for infection, such as HCWs.

Hematopoietic progenitor cell liabilities and alarmins S100A8/A9-related inflammaging associate with frailty and predict poor cardiovascular outcomes in older adults

Frailty affects the physical, cognitive, and social domains exposing older adults to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and death. The mechanisms linking frailty and cardiovascular outcomes are mostly unknown. Here, we studied the association of abundance (flow cytometry) and gene expression profile (RNAseq) of stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs) and molecular markers of inflammaging (ELISA) with the cardiorespiratory phenotype and prospective adverse events of individuals classified according to levels of frailty. Two cohorts of older adults were enrolled in the study. In a cohort of pre-frail 35 individuals (average age: 75 years), a physical frailty score above the median identified subjects with initial alterations in cardiorespiratory function. RNA sequencing revealed S100A8/A9 upregulation in HSPCs from the bone marrow (>10-fold) and peripheral blood (>200-fold) of individuals with greater physical frailty. Moreover higher frailty was associated with increased alarmins S100A8/A9 and inflammatory cytokines in peripheral blood. We then studied a cohort of 104 more frail individuals (average age: 81 years) with multidomain health deficits. Reduced levels of circulating HSPCs and increased S100A8/A9 concentrations were independently associated with the frailty index. Remarkably, low HSPCs and high S100A8/A9 simultaneously predicted major adverse cardiovascular events at 1-year follow-up after adjustment for age and frailty index. In conclusion, inflammaging characterized by alarmin and pro-inflammatory cytokines in pre-frail individuals is mirrored by the pauperization of HSPCs in frail older people with comorbidities. S100A8/A9 is upregulated within HSPCs, identifying a phenotype that associates with poor cardiovascular outcomes.

Emotional status and fear in patients scheduled for elective surgery during COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide cross-sectional survey (COVID-SURGERY)

Background

Fragmented data exist on the emotional and psychological distress generated by hospital admission during the pandemic in specific populations of patients, and no data exists on patients scheduled for surgery. The aim of this multicentre nationwide prospective cross-sectional survey was to evaluate the impact of pandemic on emotional status and fear of SARS-CoV-2 contagion in a cohort of elective surgical patients in Italy, scheduled for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

Twenty-nine Italian centres were involved in the study, for a total of 2376 patients surveyed (mean age of 58 years ± 16.61; 49.6% males). The survey consisted of 28 total closed questions, including four study outcome questions. More than half of patients had at least one chronic disease (54%), among which cardiovascular diseases were the commonest (58%). The most frequent type of surgery was abdominal (20%), under general anaesthesia (64%). Almost half of the patients (46%) declared to be frightened of going to the hospital for routine checkups; 55% to be afraid of getting SARS-CoV-2 infection during hospitalization and 62% were feared of being hospitalised without seeing family members. Having an oncological disease and other patient-related, centre-related or perioperative factors were independently associated with an increased risk of fear of SARS-CoV-2 infection during hospitalization and of being hospitalised without seeing family members. A previous infection due to SARS-COV-2 was associated with a reduced risk of worse emotional outcomes and fear of SARS-CoV-2 infection during hospitalization. Patients who showed the most emotionally vulnerable profile (e.g. use of sleep-inducing drugs, higher fear of surgery or anaesthesia) were at higher risk of worse emotional status towards the hospitalization during COVID-19 pandemic. Being operated in hospitals with lower surgical volume and with COVID-19 wards was associated with worse emotional status and fear of contagion.

Conclusions

Additional fear and worse emotional status may be frequent in patients scheduled for elective surgery during COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of the participants to the survey were worried about not being able to receive family visits. Psychological support may be considered for patients at higher risk of psychological distress to improve perioperative wellbeing during the pandemic.

Nutritional assessment in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a prospective multicentre study

Background

Nutritional status impacts quality of life and prognosis of patients with respiratory diseases, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, there is a lack of studies performing an extensive nutritional assessment of IPF patients. This study aimed to investigate the nutritional status and to identify nutritional phenotypes in a cohort of IPF patients at diagnosis.

Methods

Patients underwent a thorough pulmonary and nutritional evaluation including questionnaires on nutritional status, and physical activity, anthropometry, body impedance, dynamometry, 4-m gait speed and blood tests.

Results

90 IPF patients (78.9% males, mean age 72.7 years) were enrolled. The majority of patients were classified as Gender-Age-Physiology Index stage 2 (47, 52.2%) with an inactive lifestyle according to International Physical Activity Questionnaire score (39, 43.3%), and had mean forced vital capacity and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide 86.5% and 54.2%, respectively. In regards to nutritional phenotypes, the majority of patients were normally nourished (67.8%, 95% CI 58.6–77.7%), followed by non-sarcopenic obese (25.3%, 95% CI 16.1–35.2%), sarcopenic (4.6%, 95% CI 0.0–14.5%) and sarcopenic obese (2.3%, 95% CI 0.0–12.2%). Among the normally nourished, 49.2% showed early signs of nutritional and physical performance alterations, including body mass index ≥30 kg·m⁻² in 4.3%, history of weight loss ≥5% in 11.9%, and reduction of gait speed and hand grip strength in 11.9% and 35.6%, respectively. Low vitamin D values were observed in 56.3% of cases.

Conclusions

IPF patients at diagnosis are mainly normally nourished and obese, but early signs of nutritional and physical performance impairment can already be identified at this stage.

Patients with IPF at diagnosis are mainly normally nourished and obese but early signs of nutritional and physical performance impairment can already be identified. Sarcopenia is identified only in a minority of cases; cachexia has not been observed.https://bit.ly/3kZuRh2

Field evaluation of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine response in healthcare workers: a 3-month follow-up

Background

Effective and rapid immunologic response to vaccines is a crucial strategy for the control SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Here, we present the results of an ongoing longitudinal observational study conducted among the healthcare workers (HCWs) of the Pineta Grande Hospital (Castel Volturno, Italy), who were administered the two-dose prime-boost mRNA vaccine BNT162b2.

Methods

Volunteer HCWs underwent either (i) six RT-PCR assay for qualitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid in nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs; (ii) or six quantitative serology testing for the research of virus-specific immunoglobulins (Ig) through chemiluminescent immunoassay with a reactivity cut-off of an Index of ≥ 1.0. The first tests were taken before the administration of the vaccine and then according to a predefined timeline. An active surveillance follow-up of SARS-CoV-2 infections was set amongst the vaccinees after the end of the study.

Results

Overall, among the 435 HCWs who accepted to participated in the study, 9.3% reported a previous laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2, though all subjects tested negative at the time of first vaccine dose. In the swab cohort, seven subjects tested positive in the first 15 days after the first vaccine dose and one about a week from the second dose. At 45- and 60-day follow-ups all vaccinees tested negative, but two positive tests were registered at the third month. In the second cohort, two weeks after the first vaccine dose anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies exceeded the reactivity cut-off in 82.5% the participants. At one-month follow-up, almost all (98.4%) the vaccinees had reached the maximum Index value of 10. No statistically significant associations were found between antibody response and HCWs' characteristics.

Conclusions

Our results showed that surveillance is a critical component of providing safe healthcare during COVID-19 pandemic, also after extended vaccination campaigns, thus enhancing the protection of patients and HCWs.

Key messages

All healthcare facilities should implement continuous post-vaccination surveillance programs in order to ensure patients and healthcare workers safety, and limit in-hospital transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Longer field follow-ups are indispensable to investigate immunogenicity trends and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines over time, and to consider booster doses, especially in high-risk population.

The natural history of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in a large European population: the role of age, sex and comorbidities

Placebo arms of clinical trials provide an opportunity to investigate the natural history of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) but these patients are not representative of the real life IPF population. Objective of this article is to evaluate patients' characteristics of incident IPF cases and their impact on mortality and hospitalizations risk. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from administrative databases from 2000 to 2010. Based on different algorithms reported in literature, incident IPF cases were identified. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to assess relationship between patients' characteristics, mortality and hospitalization. According to three case definitions, we identified 2338, 460 and 1704 incident IPF cases. Mean age at diagnosis was about 72 years, the proportion of male varied between 59 and 62% and patients with at least one chronic disease were between 70 and 74%. Age, male sex and comorbidities were associated to worse outcomes. Congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes and cancer were conditions associated to mortality, while those associated to hospitalization were CHF and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Our data source provided one of the largest samples of unselected patients with a long follow-up period. Using different algorithms proposed and validated in literature, we observed that mortality and hospitalization rate are high in patients with IPF and age, sex and comorbidities significantly affect clinical outcomes. Females show a significant survival advantage over males, even after adjusting for age and comorbidities. Patients with pre-existing diseases, especially those with pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases are at higher risk.

Differences between Acute Exacerbations of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and Other Interstitial Lung Diseases

Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) comprise a wide group of pulmonary parenchymal disorders. These patients may experience acute respiratory deteriorations of their respiratory condition, termed "acute exacerbation" (AE). The incidence of AE-ILD seems to be lower than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but prognosis and prognostic factors are largely unrecognized. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 158 consecutive adult patients hospitalized for AE-ILD in two Italian university hospitals from 2009 to 2016. Patients included in the analysis were divided into two groups: non-IPF (62%) and IPF (38%). Among ILDs included in the non-IPF group, the most frequent diagnoses were non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) (42%) and connective tissue disease (CTD)-ILD (20%). Mortality during hospitalization was significantly different between the two groups: 19% in the non-IPF group and 43% in the IPF group. AEs of ILDs are difficult-to-predict events and are burdened by relevant mortality. Increased inflammatory markers, such as neutrophilia on the differential blood cell count (HR 1.02 (CI 1.01-1.04)), the presence of pulmonary hypertension (HR 1.85 (CI 1.17-2.92)), and the diagnosis of IPF (HR 2.31 (CI 1.55-3.46)), resulted in negative prognostic factors in our analysis. Otherwise, lymphocytosis on the differential count seemed to act as a protective prognostic factor (OR 0.938 (CI 0.884-0.995)). Further prospective, large-scale, real-world data are needed to support and confirm the impact of our findings.

Death in hospital following ICU discharge: insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Background

To determine the frequency of, and factors associated with, death in hospital following ICU discharge to the ward.

Methods

The Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE study was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients with severe respiratory failure, conducted across 459 ICUs from 50 countries globally. This study aimed to understand the frequency and factors associated with death in hospital in patients who survived their ICU stay. We examined outcomes in the subpopulation discharged with no limitations of life sustaining treatments (‘treatment limitations’), and the subpopulations with treatment limitations.

Results

2186 (94%) patients with no treatment limitations discharged from ICU survived, while 142 (6%) died in hospital. 118 (61%) of patients with treatment limitations survived while 77 (39%) patients died in hospital. Patients without treatment limitations that died in hospital after ICU discharge were older, more likely to have COPD, immunocompromise or chronic renal failure, less likely to have trauma as a risk factor for ARDS. Patients that died post ICU discharge were less likely to receive neuromuscular blockade, or to receive any adjunctive measure, and had a higher pre- ICU discharge non-pulmonary SOFA score. A similar pattern was seen in patients with treatment limitations that died in hospital following ICU discharge.

Conclusions

A significant proportion of patients die in hospital following discharge from ICU, with higher mortality in patients with limitations of life-sustaining treatments in place. Non-survivors had higher systemic illness severity scores at ICU discharge than survivors.

Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02010073.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-021-03465-0.

Occupational Exposure in the Lombardy Region (Italy) to SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results from the MUSTANG-OCCUPATION-COVID-19 Study

Sero-epidemiological surveys are valuable attempts to estimate the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in general or selected populations. Within this context, a prospective observational study was conducted to estimate the prevalence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in different categories of workers and factors associated with positivity, through the detection of virus-specific immunoglobulin G and M (IgG/IgM) in serum samples. Enrollees were divided in low exposure and medium-high groups on the basis of their work activity. Antibody responders were re-contacted after 3 months for the follow-up. Of 2255 sampled workers, 4.8% tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM antibodies, with 81.7% to IgG only. Workers who continued to go to their place of work, were healthcare workers, or experienced at least one COVID-19-related symptom were more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies prevalence was significantly higher in the medium-high risk vs. low-risk group (7.2% vs. 3.0%, p < 0.0001). At 3-month follow-up, 81.3% of subjects still had antibody response. This study provided important information of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence among workers in northern Italy, where the impact of COVID-19 was particularly intense. The presented surveillance data give a contribution to refine current estimates of the disease burden expected from the SARS-CoV-2.

Duration of diaphragmatic inactivity after endotracheal intubation of critically ill patients

BACKGROUND

In patients intubated for mechanical ventilation, prolonged diaphragm inactivity could lead to weakness and poor outcome. Time to resume a minimal diaphragm activity may be related to sedation practice and patient severity.

METHODS

Prospective observational study in critically ill patients. Diaphragm electrical activity (EAdi) was continuously recorded after intubation looking for resumption of a minimal level of diaphragm activity (beginning of the first 24 h period with median EAdi > 7 µV, a threshold based on literature and correlations with diaphragm thickening fraction). Recordings were collected until full spontaneous breathing, extubation, death or 120 h. A 1 h waveform recording was collected daily to identify reverse triggering.

RESULTS

Seventy-five patients were enrolled and 69 analyzed (mean age ± standard deviation 63 ± 16 years). Reasons for ventilation were respiratory (55%), hemodynamic (19%) and neurologic (20%). Eight catheter disconnections occurred. The median time for resumption of EAdi was 22 h (interquartile range 0-50 h); 35/69 (51%) of patients resumed activity within 24 h while 4 had no recovery after 5 days. Late recovery was associated with use of sedative agents, cumulative doses of propofol and fentanyl, controlled ventilation and age (older patients receiving less sedation). Severity of illness, oxygenation, renal and hepatic function, reason for intubation were not associated with EAdi resumption. At least 20% of patients initiated EAdi with reverse triggering.

CONCLUSION

Low levels of diaphragm electrical activity are common in the early course of mechanical ventilation: 50% of patients do not recover diaphragmatic activity within one day. Sedatives are the main factors accounting for this delay independently from lung or general severity. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02434016). Registered on April 27, 2015. First patients enrolled June 2015.

High flow nasal therapy versus noninvasive ventilation as initial ventilatory strategy in COPD exacerbation: a multicenter non-inferiority randomized trial

Background

The efficacy and safety of high flow nasal therapy (HFNT) in patients with acute hypercapnic exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are unclear. Our aim was to evaluate the short-term effect of HFNT versus NIV in patients with mild-to-moderate AECOPD, with the hypothesis that HFNT is non-inferior to NIV on CO₂ clearance after 2 h of treatment.

Methods

We performed a multicenter, non-inferiority randomized trial comparing HFNT and noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in nine centers in Italy. Patients were eligible if presented with mild-to-moderate AECOPD (arterial pH 7.25–7.35, PaCO₂ ≥ 55 mmHg before ventilator support). Primary endpoint was the mean difference of PaCO₂ from baseline to 2 h (non-inferiority margin 10 mmHg) in the per-protocol analysis. Main secondary endpoints were non-inferiority of HFNT to NIV in reducing PaCO₂ at 6 h in the per-protocol and intention-to-treat analysis and rate of treatment changes.

Results

Seventy-nine patients were analyzed (80 patients randomized). Mean differences for PaCO₂ reduction from baseline to 2 h were − 6.8 mmHg (± 8.7) in the HFNT and − 9.5 mmHg (± 8.5) in the NIV group (p = 0.404). By 6 h, 32% of patients (13 out of 40) in the HFNT group switched to NIV and one to invasive ventilation. HFNT was statistically non-inferior to NIV since the 95% confidence interval (CI) upper boundary of absolute difference in mean PaCO₂ reduction did not reach the non-inferiority margin of 10 mmHg (absolute difference 2.7 mmHg; 1-sided 95% CI 6.1; p = 0.0003). Both treatments had a significant effect on PaCO₂ reductions over time, and trends were similar between groups. Similar results were found in both per-protocol at 6 h and intention-to-treat analysis.

Conclusions

HFNT was statistically non-inferior to NIV as initial ventilatory support in decreasing PaCO₂ after 2 h of treatment in patients with mild-to-moderate AECOPD, considering a non-inferiority margin of 10 mmHg. However, 32% of patients receiving HFNT required NIV by 6 h. Further trials with superiority design should evaluate efficacy toward stronger patient-related outcomes and safety of HFNT in AECOPD.

Trial registration: The study was prospectively registered on December 12, 2017, in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03370666).

Compliance Phenotypes in Early Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome before the COVID-19 Pandemic

Rationale: A novel model of phenotypes based on set thresholds of respiratory system compliance (Crs) was recently postulated in context of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In particular, the dissociation between the degree of hypoxemia and Crs was characterized as a distinct ARDS phenotype.

Objectives: To determine whether such Crs-based phenotypes existed among patients with ARDS before the COVID-19 pandemic and to closely examine the Crs–mortality relationship.

Methods: We undertook a secondary analysis of patients with ARDS, who were invasively ventilated on controlled modes and enrolled in a large, multinational, epidemiological study. We assessed Crs, degree of hypoxemia, and associated Crs-based phenotypic patterns with their characteristics and outcomes.

Measurements and Main Results: Among 1,117 patients with ARDS who met inclusion criteria, the median Crs was 30 (interquartile range, 23–40) ml/cm H₂O. One hundred thirty-six (12%) patients had preserved Crs (≥50 ml/cm H₂O; phenotype with low elastance [“phenotype L”]), and 827 (74%) patients had poor Crs (<40 ml/cm H₂O; phenotype with high elastance [“phenotype H”]). Compared with those with phenotype L, patients with phenotype H were sicker and had more comorbidities and higher hospital mortality (32% vs. 45%; P < 0.05). A near complete dissociation between Pa_O2/Fi_O2 and Crs was observed. Of 136 patients with phenotype L, 58 (43%) had a Pa_O2/Fi_O2 < 150. In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, the Crs was independently associated with hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio per ml/cm H₂O increase, 0.988; 95% confidence interval, 0.979–0.996; P = 0.005).

Conclusions: A wide range of Crs was observed in non–COVID-19 ARDS. Approximately one in eight patients had preserved Crs. Pa_O2/Fi_O2 and Crs were dissociated. Lower Crs was independently associated with higher mortality. The Crs–mortality relationship lacked a clear transition threshold.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Magnitude and time-course of excess mortality during COVID-19 outbreak: population-based empirical evidence from highly impacted provinces in northern Italy

Background

The real impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on overall mortality remains uncertain as surveillance reports have attributed a limited number of deaths to novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the outbreak. The aim of this study was to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in highly impacted areas of northern Italy.

Methods

We analysed data on deaths that occurred in the first 4 months of 2020 provided by the health protection agencies (HPAs) of Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), building a time-series of daily number of deaths and predicting the daily standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and cumulative number of excess deaths through a Poisson generalised additive model of the observed counts in 2020, using 2019 data as a reference.

Results

We estimated that there were 5740 (95% credible set (CS) 5552–5936) excess deaths in the HPA of Bergamo and 3703 (95% CS 3535–3877) in Brescia, corresponding to a 2.55-fold (95% CS 2.50–2.61) and 1.93 (95% CS 1.89–1.98) increase in the number of deaths. The excess death wave started a few days later in Brescia, but the daily estimated SMR peaked at the end of March in both HPAs, roughly 2 weeks after the introduction of lockdown measures, with significantly higher estimates in Bergamo (9.4, 95% CI 9.1–9.7).

Conclusion

Excess mortality was significantly higher than that officially attributed to COVID-19, disclosing its hidden burden likely due to indirect effects on the health system. Time-series analyses highlighted the impact of lockdown restrictions, with a lower excess mortality in the HPA where there was a smaller delay between the epidemic outbreak and their enforcement.

This study identifies another important element to research on #SARSCoV2 and provides actionable strategies to quantify the excess mortality due to #COVID19 spread, which has public health and research implications to minimise the disease impacthttps://bit.ly/3jbKXAW

Cardiovascular diseases burden in Italy, 1990–2017: the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are still the leading cause of mortality, morbidity and disability in Europe. Consequently, an exhaustive estimation of CVDs burden and cardiovascular risk factors impact is crucial for healthcare planning and resource allocation. In Italy, data on CVDs burden are sparse. This study aims to assess the global Italian CVDs burden and to analyze time changes from 1990 to 2017 within the country and in comparison to other European states.

Methods

We used data from the 2017 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study to estimate CVDs prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Italy from 1990 to 2017. We also analyzed burden attributable to CVDs-related risk factors. Finally, Italian estimations were compared to those of the other 28 European Union countries.

Results

CVDs were still the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality) in Italy in 2017. A significant decrease in CVDs burden was observed since 1990: age-standardized prevalence (-12.7%), mortality rate (-53.75%), and DALYs rate (-55.54%) all decreased. Similar patterns were observed also in the majority of European countries. Despite these trends, all-ages CVDs prevalent cases increased from 5.75 million to 7.49 million. More than 80% of CVDs burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high LDL cholesterol, and impaired kidney function.

Conclusions

Data showed a decline in cardiovascular mortality and DALYs, which reflects the success in terms of reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of CVDs. However, the burden of CVDs is still high, as population aging and the increased prevalent cases require more access to care and generate more years lived with disability, which in turn leads to higher costs for the National Health Service and society. More efficient prevention strategies at community and individual level are needed.

Key messages

Despite decreasing trends in CVDs mortality and DALYs, the burden of CVDs is still high in Italy. A joined approach of the National Health System stakeholders is needed to keep reducing the CVDs burden.

Trends in cardiovascular diseases burden and vascular risk factors in Italy: The Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2017

AIMS

An exhaustive and updated estimation of cardiovascular disease burden and vascular risk factors is still lacking in European countries. This study aims to fill this gap assessing the global Italian cardiovascular disease burden and its changes from 1990 to 2017 and comparing the Italian situation with European countries.

METHODS

All accessible data sources from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study were used to estimate the cardiovascular disease prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and cardiovascular disease attributable risk factors burden in Italy from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, we compared the cardiovascular disease burden within the 28 European Union countries.

RESULTS

Since 1990, we observed a significant decrease of cardiovascular disease burden, particularly in the age-standardised prevalence (-12.7%), mortality rate (-53.8%), and disability-adjusted life years rate (-55.5%). Similar improvements were observed in the majority of European countries. However, we found an increase in all-ages prevalence of cardiovascular diseases from 5.75 m to 7.49 m Italian residents. Cardiovascular diseases still remain the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality). More than 80% of the cardiovascular disease burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and impaired kidney function.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows a decline in cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, the burden of cardiovascular diseases is still high. An approach that includes the cooperation and coordination of all stakeholders of the Italian National Health System is required to further reduce this burden.

Estimates of the initial impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on overall mortality: evidence from Italy

From February 2020, when the first case of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) was detected, Italy has rapidly become one of the countries most affected by the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), accounting for 135 586 recorded cases as of 7 April 2020 [1]. Surveillance data from the National Institute of Health indicate that COVID-19 has caused more than 15 000 lethal pneumonia cases, particularly in some of the northern regions. Positive cases had a median age of 62 years, while patients who died of COVID-19 had a median age of 80 years [2].

This study provides evidence of the enormous death toll attributable to COVID-19https://bit.ly/2X4C6a8

Patterns and Impact of Arterial CO2 Management in Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: Insights From the LUNG SAFE Study

BACKGROUND

Considerable variability exists regarding CO₂ management in early ARDS, with the impact of arterial CO₂ tension on management and outcomes poorly understood.

RESEARCH QUESTION

To determine the prevalence and impact of hypocapnia and hypercapnia on the management and outcomes of patients with early ARDS enrolled in the Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) study, an international multicenter observational study.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Our primary objective was to examine the prevalence of day 1 and sustained (day 1 and 2) hypocapnia (Paco₂ < 35 mm Hg), normocapnia (Paco₂ 35-45 mm Hg), and hypercapnia (Paco₂ > 45 mm Hg) in patients with ARDS. Secondary objectives included elucidating the effect of CO₂ tension on ventilatory management and examining the relationship with ARDS outcome.

RESULTS

Of 2,813 patients analyzed, 551 (19.6%; 95%CI, 18.1-21.1) were hypocapnic, 1,018 (36.2%; 95% CI, 34.4-38.0) were normocapnic, and 1,214 (43.2%; 95% CI, 41.3-45.0) were hypercapnic, on day 1. Sustained hypocapnia was seen in 252 (9.3%; 95% CI, 8.2-10.4), sustained normocapnia in 544 (19.3%; 95% CI, 17.9-20.8), and sustained hypercapnia in 654 (24.1%; 95% CI, 22.5-25.7) patients. Hypocapnia was more frequent and severe in patients receiving noninvasive ventilation but also was observed in patients on controlled mechanical ventilation. Sustained hypocapnia was more frequent in middle-income countries, whereas sustained hypercapnia was more frequent in Europe. ARDS severity profile was highest in sustained hypercapnia, and these patients received more protective ventilation. No independent association was seen between arterial CO₂ and outcome. In propensity-matched analyses, the hospital mortality rate was 36% in both sustained normocapnic and hypercapnic patients (P = 1.0). ICU mortality was higher in patients with mild to moderate ARDS receiving sustained hypocapnia (38.1%) compared with normocapnia (27.1%).

INTERPRETATION

No evidence was found for benefit or harm with hypercapnia. Of concern, ICU mortality was higher with sustained hypocapnia in mild to moderate ARDS.

Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use in early acute respiratory distress syndrome: insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Background

Concerns exist regarding the prevalence and impact of unnecessary oxygen use in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We examined this issue in patients with ARDS enrolled in the Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE (LUNG SAFE) study.

Methods

In this secondary analysis of the LUNG SAFE study, we wished to determine the prevalence and the outcomes associated with hyperoxemia on day 1, sustained hyperoxemia, and excessive oxygen use in patients with early ARDS. Patients who fulfilled criteria of ARDS on day 1 and day 2 of acute hypoxemic respiratory failure were categorized based on the presence of hyperoxemia (PaO₂ > 100 mmHg) on day 1, sustained (i.e., present on day 1 and day 2) hyperoxemia, or excessive oxygen use (FIO₂ ≥ 0.60 during hyperoxemia).

Results

Of 2005 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 131 (6.5%) were hypoxemic (PaO₂ < 55 mmHg), 607 (30%) had hyperoxemia on day 1, and 250 (12%) had sustained hyperoxemia. Excess FIO₂ use occurred in 400 (66%) out of 607 patients with hyperoxemia. Excess FIO₂ use decreased from day 1 to day 2 of ARDS, with most hyperoxemic patients on day 2 receiving relatively low FIO₂. Multivariate analyses found no independent relationship between day 1 hyperoxemia, sustained hyperoxemia, or excess FIO₂ use and adverse clinical outcomes. Mortality was 42% in patients with excess FIO₂ use, compared to 39% in a propensity-matched sample of normoxemic (PaO₂ 55–100 mmHg) patients (P = 0.47).

Conclusions

Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use are both prevalent in early ARDS but are most often non-sustained. No relationship was found between hyperoxemia or excessive oxygen use and patient outcome in this cohort.

Trial registration

LUNG-SAFE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02010073

Reliability of cutaneous landmarks for the catheter length assessment during peripherally inserted central catheter insertion: A retrospective observational study

Introduction:

Peripherally inserted central catheters are very common devices for short, medium and long-term therapies. Their performance is strictly dependent on the correct tip location, at the junction between the upper caval vein and the right atrium. It is very important to obtain an estimated measure of the catheter, in order to reach the cavo-atrial junction and optimize the catheter length. Estimated measures are often obtained using cutaneous landmarks.

Objective:

Evaluate the reliability of cutaneous landmark-based length estimation during catheter insertion. Identify any patient’s related factors that may affect cutaneous landmarks reliability.

Methods:

We used two distinct techniques and collected data about cutaneous landmark-based length estimation, electrocardiographic guided intravascular length, age, weight and height. We studied the reliability of possible correcting factors, balancing the error average by regression models, and we found and tested two different models of prediction.

Results:

A total number of 519 patients were studied. The average bias, between the two studied length assessment by cutaneous landmarks and electrocardiographic guided catheter length, were 3.77 ± 2.44 cm and 3.28 ± 2.57 cm, respectively. The analysed prediction models (deviance explained 43.5%, Akaike information criterion = 1313.67% and 43.4%, Akaike information criterion = 1313.92), fitted on the validation set, showed a root mean square error of 3.07 and 3.06.

Conclusion:

Landmark-based length estimation for preventive catheter length assessment seems to be unreliable, when associated with post-procedural tip location. They are useful for distal trimming catheters to optimize the ‘out of skin’ portion when associated with electrocardiographic tip location. Models identified for balancing bias are probably not useful.

Italy's health performance, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Through a comprehensive analysis of Italy's estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, we aimed to understand the patterns of health loss and response of the health-care system, and offer evidence-based policy indications in light of the demographic transition and government health spending in the country.

METHODS

Estimates for Italy were extracted from GBD 2017. Data on Italy are presented for 1990 and 2017, on prevalence, causes of death, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy at birth and at age 65 years, healthy life expectancy, and Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index. We compared the estimates for Italy with those of 15 other western European countries.

FINDINGS

The quality of the universal health system and healthy behaviours contribute to favourable overall health, even in comparison with other western European countries. In 2017, life expectancy and HAQ Index score in Italy were among the highest globally, with life expectancy at birth reaching 85·3 years for females and 80·8 for males in 2017, ranking Italy eighth globally for females and sixth for males, and an HAQ Index score of 94·9 in 2016 compared with 81·54 in 1990, keeping Italy ranked as ninth globally. Between 1990 and 2017 age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases decreased by 53·7% (95% uncertainty interval -56·1 to -51·4), for neoplasms decreased by 28·2% (-32·3 to -24·6), and for transport injuries decreased by 62·1% (-64·6 to -59·2). However, population ageing is causing an increase in the burden of specific diseases, such as Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (DALYs increased by 77·9% [68·4 to 87·2]) and pancreatic (DALYs increased by 39·7% [28·4 to 51·7]) and uterine cancers (DALYs increased by 164·7% [129·7 to 202·5]). Behavioural risk factors, which are potentially modifiable, still have a strong effect, particularly on cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. For instance, in 2017, 44 400 (41 200 to 47 800) cancer deaths were attributed to smoking, 12 000 (9600 to 14 800) to alcohol use, and 9500 (5400 to 14 200) to high body-mass index, while 47 000 (31 100 to 65 700) deaths due to cardiovascular diseases could be attributed to high LDL cholesterol, 28 700 (19 700 to 38 500) to diets low in whole grains, and 15 900 (8500 to 24 900) to low physical activity.

INTERPRETATION

Italy provides an interesting example of the results that can be achieved by a mix of relatively healthy lifestyles and a universal health system. Two main issues require attention, population ageing and gradual decrease of public health financing, which both pose several challenges to the future of Italy's health status. Our findings should be useful to Italy's policy makers and health system experts elsewhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Demographics, management and outcome of females and males with acute respiratory distress syndrome in the LUNG SAFE prospective cohort study

Rationale

We wished to determine the influence of sex on the management and outcomes in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients in the Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE).

Methods

We assessed the effect of sex on mortality, intensive care unit and hospital length of stay, and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in patients with ARDS who underwent IMV, adjusting for plausible clinical and geographic confounders.

Findings

Of 2377 patients with ARDS, 905 (38%) were female and 1472 (62%) were male. There were no sex differences in clinician recognition of ARDS or critical illness severity profile. Females received higher tidal volumes (8.2±2.1 versus 7.2±1.6 mL·kg−1; p<0.0001) and higher plateau and driving pressures compared with males. Lower tidal volume ventilation was received by 50% of females compared with 74% of males (p<0.0001). In shorter patients (height ≤1.69 m), females were significantly less likely to receive lower tidal volumes. Surviving females had a shorter duration of IMV and reduced length of stay compared with males. Overall hospital mortality was similar in females (40.2%) versus males (40.2%). However, female sex was associated with higher mortality in patients with severe confirmed ARDS (OR for sex (male versus female) 0.35, 95% CI 0.14–0.83).

Conclusions

Shorter females with ARDS are less likely to receive lower tidal volume ventilation, while females with severe confirmed ARDS have a higher mortality risk. These data highlight the need for better ventilatory management in females to improve their outcomes from ARDS.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.