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Pham T, Heunks L, Bellani G, Madotto F, Aragao I, Beduneau G, Goligher EC, Grasselli G, Laake JH, Mancebo J, Peñuelas O, Piquilloud L, Pesenti A, Wunsch H, van Haren F, Brochard L, Laffey JG, Acharya SP, Amin P, Arabi Y, Aragao I, Bauer P, Beduneau G, Beitler J, Berkius J, Bugedo G, Camporota L, Cerny V, Cho YJ, Clarkson K, Estenssoro E, Goligher E, Grasselli G, Gritsan A, Hashemian SM, Hermans G, Heunks LM, Jovanovic B, Kurahashi K, Laake JH, Matamis D, Moerer O, Molnar Z, Ozyilmaz E, Panka B, Papali A, Peñuelas Ó, Perbet S, Piquilloud L, Qiu H, Razek AA, Rittayamai N, Roldan R, Serpa Neto A, Szuldrzynski K, Talmor D, Tomescu D, Van Haren F, Villagomez A, Zeggwagh AA, Abe T, Aboshady A, Acampo-de Jong M, Acharya S, Adderley J, Adiguzel N, Agrawal VK, Aguilar G, Aguirre G, Aguirre-Bermeo H, Ahlström B, Akbas T, Akker M, Al Sadeh G, Alamri S, Algaba A, Ali M, Aliberti A, Allegue JM, Alvarez D, Amador J, Andersen FH, Ansari S, Apichatbutr Y, Apostolopoulou O, Arabi Y, Arellano D, Arica 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H, Zhang J, Zhang H, Zhang W, Zhang G, Zhang W, Zhao H, Zheng J, Zhu B, Zumaran R. Weaning from mechanical ventilation in intensive care units across 50 countries (WEAN SAFE): a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. Lancet Respir Med 2023; 11:465-476. [PMID: 36693401 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(22)00449-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Revised: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 01/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current management practices and outcomes in weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation are poorly understood. We aimed to describe the epidemiology, management, timings, risk for failure, and outcomes of weaning in patients requiring at least 2 days of invasive mechanical ventilation. METHODS WEAN SAFE was an international, multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study done in 481 intensive care units in 50 countries. Eligible participants were older than 16 years, admitted to a participating intensive care unit, and receiving mechanical ventilation for 2 calendar days or longer. We defined weaning initiation as the first attempt to separate a patient from the ventilator, successful weaning as no reintubation or death within 7 days of extubation, and weaning eligibility criteria based on positive end-expiratory pressure, fractional concentration of oxygen in inspired air, and vasopressors. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients successfully weaned at 90 days. Key secondary outcomes included weaning duration, timing of weaning events, factors associated with weaning delay and weaning failure, and hospital outcomes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03255109. FINDINGS Between Oct 4, 2017, and June 25, 2018, 10 232 patients were screened for eligibility, of whom 5869 were enrolled. 4523 (77·1%) patients underwent at least one separation attempt and 3817 (65·0%) patients were successfully weaned from ventilation at day 90. 237 (4·0%) patients were transferred before any separation attempt, 153 (2·6%) were transferred after at least one separation attempt and not successfully weaned, and 1662 (28·3%) died while invasively ventilated. The median time from fulfilling weaning eligibility criteria to first separation attempt was 1 day (IQR 0-4), and 1013 (22·4%) patients had a delay in initiating first separation of 5 or more days. Of the 4523 (77·1%) patients with separation attempts, 2927 (64·7%) had a short wean (≤1 day), 457 (10·1%) had intermediate weaning (2-6 days), 433 (9·6%) required prolonged weaning (≥7 days), and 706 (15·6%) had weaning failure. Higher sedation scores were independently associated with delayed initiation of weaning. Delayed initiation of weaning and higher sedation scores were independently associated with weaning failure. 1742 (31·8%) of 5479 patients died in the intensive care unit and 2095 (38·3%) of 5465 patients died in hospital. INTERPRETATION In critically ill patients receiving at least 2 days of invasive mechanical ventilation, only 65% were weaned at 90 days. A better understanding of factors that delay the weaning process, such as delays in weaning initiation or excessive sedation levels, might improve weaning success rates. FUNDING European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, European Respiratory Society.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tài Pham
- Service de Médecine Intensive-Réanimation, AP-HP, Hôpital de Bicêtre, DMU CORREVE, FHU SEPSIS, Groupe de Recherche CARMAS, Hôpitaux Universitaires Paris-Saclay, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France; Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Université Paris-Sud, Inserm U1018, Equipe d'Epidémiologie Respiratoire Intégrative, CESP, 94807, Villejuif, France
| | - Leo Heunks
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Giacomo Bellani
- School of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy; Department of Emergency and Intensive Care, University Hospital San Gerardo, Monza, Italy
| | - Fabiana Madotto
- Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care and Emergency, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Irene Aragao
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Centro Hospitalar Universitário do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Gaëtan Beduneau
- Normandie University, UNIROUEN, UR 3830, CHU Rouen, Department of Medical Intensive Care, F-76000 Rouen, France
| | - Ewan C Goligher
- Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Medicine, Division of Respirology, Toronto General Hospital Research Institute University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Giacomo Grasselli
- Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care and Emergency, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy; Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Jon Henrik Laake
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Department of Research and Development, Division of Critical Care and Emergencies, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Jordi Mancebo
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Hospital Universitari Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Oscar Peñuelas
- Intensive Care Unit, Hospital Universitario de Getafe, Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red, CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias, CIBERES, Madrid, Spain
| | - Lise Piquilloud
- Adult Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Antonio Pesenti
- Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care and Emergency, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy; Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Hannah Wunsch
- Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Frank van Haren
- College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Intensive Care Unit, St George Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Laurent Brochard
- Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Keenan Research Centre for Biomedical Science, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - John G Laffey
- Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine, School of Medicine, Clinical Sciences Institute, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland; School of Medicine, Regenerative Medicine Institute (REMEDI) at CÚRAM Centre for Research in Medical Devices, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway, Ireland.
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Kouli O, Murray V, Bhatia S, Cambridge WA, Kawka M, Shafi S, Knight SR, Kamarajah SK, McLean KA, Glasbey JC, Khaw RA, Ahmed W, Akhbari M, Baker D, Borakati A, Mills E, Thavayogan R, Yasin I, Raubenheimer K, Ridley W, Sarrami M, Zhang G, Egoroff N, Pockney P, Richards T, Bhangu A, Creagh-Brown B, Edwards M, Harrison EM, Lee M, Nepogodiev D, Pinkney T, Pearse R, Smart N, Vohra R, Sohrabi C, Jamieson A, Nguyen M, Rahman A, English C, Tincknell L, Kakodkar P, Kwek I, Punjabi N, Burns J, Varghese S, Erotocritou M, McGuckin S, Vayalapra S, Dominguez E, Moneim J, Salehi M, Tan HL, Yoong A, Zhu L, Seale B, Nowinka Z, Patel N, Chrisp B, Harris J, Maleyko I, Muneeb F, Gough M, James CE, Skan O, Chowdhury A, Rebuffa N, Khan H, Down B, Fatimah Hussain Q, Adams M, Bailey A, Cullen G, Fu YXJ, McClement B, Taylor A, Aitken S, Bachelet B, Brousse de Gersigny J, Chang C, Khehra B, Lahoud N, Lee Solano M, Louca M, Rozenbroek P, Rozitis E, Agbinya N, Anderson E, Arwi G, Barry I, Batchelor C, Chong T, Choo LY, Clark L, Daniels M, Goh J, Handa A, Hanna J, Huynh L, Jeon A, Kanbour A, Lee A, Lee J, Lee T, Leigh J, Ly D, McGregor F, Moss J, Nejatian M, O'Loughlin E, Ramos I, Sanchez B, Shrivathsa A, Sincari A, Sobhi S, Swart R, Trimboli J, Wignall P, Bourke E, Chong A, Clayton S, Dawson A, Hardy E, Iqbal R, Le L, Mao S, Marinelli I, Metcalfe H, Panicker D, R HH, Ridgway S, Tan HH, Thong S, Van M, Woon S, Woon-Shoo-Tong XS, Yu S, Ali K, Chee J, Chiu C, Chow YW, Duller A, Nagappan P, Ng S, Selvanathan M, Sheridan C, Temple M, Do JE, Dudi-Venkata NN, Humphries E, Li L, Mansour LT, Massy-Westropp C, Fang B, Farbood K, Hong H, Huang Y, Joan M, Koh C, Liu YHA, Mahajan T, Muller E, Park R, Tanudisastro M, Wu JJG, Chopra P, Giang S, Radcliffe S, Thach P, Wallace D, Wilkes A, Chinta SH, Li J, Phan J, Rahman F, Segaran A, Shannon J, Zhang M, Adams N, Bonte A, Choudhry A, Colterjohn N, Croyle JA, Donohue J, Feighery A, Keane A, McNamara D, Munir K, Roche D, Sabnani R, Seligman D, Sharma S, Stickney Z, Suchy H, Tan R, Yordi S, Ahmed I, Aranha M, El Sabawy D, Garwood P, Harnett M, Holohan R, Howard R, Kayyal Y, Krakoski N, Lupo M, McGilberry W, Nepon H, Scoleri Y, Urbina C, Ahmad Fuad MF, Ahmed O, Jaswantlal D, Kelly E, Khan MHT, Naidu D, Neo WX, O'Neill R, Sugrue M, Abbas JD, Abdul-Fattah S, Azlan A, Barry K, Idris NS, Kaka N, Mc Dermott D, Mohammad Nasir MN, Mozo M, Rehal A, Shaikh Yousef M, Wong RH, Curran E, Gardner M, Hogan A, Julka R, Lasser G, Ní Chorráin N, Ting J, Browne R, George S, Janjua Z, Leung Shing V, Megally M, Murphy S, Ravenscroft L, Vedadi A, Vyas V, Bryan A, Sheikh A, Ubhi J, Vannelli K, Vawda A, Adeusi L, Doherty C, Fitzgerald C, Gallagher H, Gill P, Hamza H, Hogan M, Kelly S, Larry J, Lynch P, Mazeni NA, O'Connell R, O'Loghlin R, Singh K, Abbas Syed R, Ali A, Alkandari B, Arnold A, Arora E, Azam R, Breathnach C, Cheema J, Compton M, Curran S, Elliott JA, Jayasamraj O, Mohammed N, Noone A, Pal A, Pandey S, Quinn P, Sheridan R, Siew L, Tan EP, Tio SW, Toh VTR, Walsh M, Yap C, Yassa J, Young T, Agarwal N, Almoosawy SA, Bowen K, Bruce D, Connachan R, Cook A, Daniell A, Elliott M, Fung HKF, Irving A, Laurie S, Lee YJ, Lim ZX, Maddineni S, McClenaghan RE, Muthuganesan V, Ravichandran P, Roberts N, Shaji S, Solt S, Toshney E, Arnold C, Baker O, Belais F, Bojanic C, Byrne M, Chau CYC, De Soysa S, Eldridge M, Fairey M, Fearnhead N, Guéroult A, Ho JSY, Joshi K, Kadiyala N, Khalid S, Khan F, Kumar K, Lewis E, Magee J, Manetta-Jones D, Mann S, McKeown L, Mitrofan C, Mohamed T, Monnickendam A, Ng AYKC, Ortu A, Patel M, Pope T, Pressling S, Purohit K, Saji S, Shah Foridi J, Shah R, Siddiqui SS, Surman K, Utukuri M, Varghese A, Williams CYK, Yang JJ, Billson E, Cheah E, Holmes P, Hussain S, Murdock D, Nicholls A, Patel P, Ramana G, Saleki M, Spence H, Thomas D, Yu C, Abousamra M, Brown C, Conti I, Donnelly A, Durand M, French N, Goan R, O'Kane E, Rubinchik P, Gardiner H, Kempf B, Lai YL, Matthews H, Minford E, Rafferty C, Reid C, Sheridan N, Al Bahri T, Bhoombla N, Rao BM, Titu L, Chatha S, Field C, Gandhi T, Gulati R, Jha R, Jones Sam MT, Karim S, Patel R, Saunders M, Sharma K, Abid S, Heath E, Kurup D, Patel A, Ali M, Cresswell B, Felstead D, Jennings K, Kaluarachchi T, Lazzereschi L, Mayson H, Miah JE, Reinders B, Rosser A, Thomas C, Williams H, Al-Hamid Z, Alsadoun L, Chlubek M, Fernando P, Gaunt E, Gercek Y, Maniar R, Ma R, Matson M, Moore S, Morris A, Nagappan PG, Ratnayake M, Rockall L, Shallcross O, Sinha A, Tan KE, Virdee S, Wenlock R, Donnelly HA, Ghazal R, Hughes I, Liu X, McFadden M, Misbert E, Mogey P, O'Hara A, Peace C, Rainey C, Raja P, Salem M, Salmon J, Tan CH, Alves D, Bahl S, Baker C, Coulthurst J, Koysombat K, Linn T, Rai P, Sharma A, Shergill A, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Belk LH, Choudhry H, Cummings D, Dixon Y, Dobinson C, Edwards J, Flint J, Franco Da Silva C, Gallie R, Gardener M, Glover T, Greasley M, Hatab A, Howells R, Hussey T, Khan A, Mann A, Morrison H, Ng A, Osmond R, Padmakumar N, Pervaiz F, Prince R, Qureshi A, Sawhney R, Sigurdson B, Stephenson L, Vora K, Zacken A, Cope P, Di Traglia R, Ferarrio I, Hackett N, Healicon R, Horseman L, Lam LI, Meerdink M, Menham D, Murphy R, Nimmo I, Ramaesh A, Rees J, Soame R, Dilaver N, Adebambo D, Brown E, Burt J, Foster K, Kaliyappan L, Knight P, Politis A, Richardson E, Townsend J, Abdi M, Ball M, Easby S, Gill N, Ho E, Iqbal H, Matthews M, Nubi S, Nwokocha JO, Okafor I, Perry G, Sinartio B, Vanukuru N, Walkley D, Welch T, Yates J, Yeshitila N, Bryans K, Campbell B, Gray C, Keys R, Macartney M, Chamberlain G, Khatri A, Kucheria A, Lee STP, Reese G, Roy choudhury J, Tan WYR, Teh JJ, Ting A, Kazi S, Kontovounisios C, Vutipongsatorn K, Amarnath T, Balasubramanian N, Bassett E, Gurung P, Lim J, Panjikkaran A, Sanalla A, Alkoot M, Bacigalupo V, Eardley N, Horton M, Hurry A, Isti C, Maskell P, Nursiah K, Punn G, Salih H, Epanomeritakis E, Foulkes A, Henderson R, Johnston E, McCullough H, McLarnon M, Morrison E, Cheung A, Cho SH, Eriksson F, Hedges J, Low Z, May C, Musto L, Nagi S, Nur S, Salau E, Shabbir S, Thomas MC, Uthayanan L, Vig S, Zaheer M, Zeng G, Ashcroft-Quinn S, Brown R, Hayes J, McConville R, French R, Gilliam A, Sheetal S, Shehzad MU, Bani W, Christie I, Franklyn J, Khan M, Russell J, Smolarek S, Varadarassou R, Ahmed SK, Narayanaswamy S, Sealy J, Shah M, Dodhia V, Manukyan A, O'Hare R, Orbell J, Chung I, Forenc K, Gupta A, Agarwal A, Al Dabbagh A, Bennewith R, Bottomley J, Chu TSM, Chu YYA, Doherty W, Evans B, Hainsworth P, Hosfield T, Li CH, McCullagh I, Mehta A, Thaker A, Thompson B, Virdi A, Walker H, Wilkins E, Dixon C, Hassan MR, Lotca N, Tong KS, Batchelor-Parry H, Chaudhari S, Harris T, Hooper J, Johnson C, Mulvihill C, Nayler J, Olutobi O, Piramanayagam B, Stones K, Sussman M, Weaver C, Alam F, Al Rawi M, Andrew F, Arrayeh A, Azizan N, Hassan A, Iqbal Z, John I, Jones M, Kalake O, Keast M, Nicholas J, Patil A, Powell K, Roberts P, Sabri A, Segue AK, Shah A, Shaik Mohamed SA, Shehadeh A, Shenoy S, Tong A, Upcott M, Vijayasingam D, Anarfi S, Dauncey J, Devindaran A, Havalda P, Komninos G, Mwendwa E, Norman C, Richards J, Urquhart A, Allan J, Cahya E, Hunt H, McWhirter C, Norton R, Roxburgh C, Tan JY, Ali Butt S, Hansdot S, Haq I, Mootien A, Sanchez I, Vainas T, Deliyannis E, Tan M, Vipond M, Chittoor Satish NN, Dattani A, De Carvalho L, Gaston-Grubb M, Karunanithy L, Lowe B, Pace C, Raju K, Roope J, Taylor C, Youssef H, Munro T, Thorn C, Wong KHF, Yunus A, Chawla S, Datta A, Dinesh AA, Field D, Georgi T, Gwozdz A, Hamstead E, Howard N, Isleyen N, Jackson N, Kingdon J, Sagoo KS, Schizas A, Yin L, Aung E, Aung YY, Franklin S, Han SM, Kim WC, Martin Segura A, Rossi M, Ross T, Tirimanna R, Wang B, Zakieh O, Ben-Arzi H, Flach A, Jackson E, Magers S, Olu abara C, Rogers E, Sugden K, Tan H, Veliah S, Walton U, Asif A, Bharwada Y, Bowley D, Broekhuizen A, Cooper L, Evans N, Girdlestone H, Ling C, Mann H, Mehmood N, Mulvenna CL, Rainer N, Trout I, Gujjuri R, Jeyaraman D, Leong E, Singh D, Smith E, Anderton J, Barabas M, Goyal S, Howard D, Joshi A, Mitchell D, Weatherby T, Badminton R, Bird R, Burtle D, Choi NY, Devalia K, Farr E, Fischer F, Fish J, Gunn F, Jacobs D, Johnston P, Kalakoutas A, Lau E, Loo YNAF, Louden H, Makariou N, Mohammadi K, Nayab Y, Ruhomaun S, Ryliskyte R, Saeed M, Shinde P, Sudul M, Theodoropoulou K, Valadao-Spoorenberg J, Vlachou F, Arshad SR, Janmohamed AM, Noor M, Oyerinde O, Saha A, Syed Y, Watkinson W, Ahmadi H, Akintunde A, Alsaady A, Bradley J, Brothwood D, Burton M, Higgs M, Hoyle C, Katsura C, Lathan R, Louani A, Mandalia R, Prihartadi AS, Qaddoura B, Sandland-Taylor L, Thadani S, Thompson A, Walshaw J, Teo S, Ali S, Bawa JH, Fox S, Gargan K, Haider SA, Hanna N, Hatoum A, Khan Z, Krzak AM, Li T, Pitt J, Tan GJS, Ullah Z, Wilson E, Cleaver J, Colman J, Copeland L, Coulson A, Davis P, Faisal H, Hassan F, Hughes JT, Jabr Y, Mahmoud Ali F, Nahaboo Solim ZN, Sangheli A, Shaya S, Thompson R, Cornwall H, De Andres Crespo M, Fay E, Findlay J, Groves E, Jones O, Killen A, Millo J, Thomas S, Ward J, Wilkins M, Zaki F, Zilber E, Bhavra K, Bilolikar A, Charalambous M, Elawad A, Eleni A, Fawdon R, Gibbins A, Livingstone D, Mala D, Oke SE, Padmakumar D, Patsalides MA, Payne D, Ralphs C, Roney A, Sardar N, Stefanova K, Surti F, Timms R, Tosney G, Bannister J, Clement NS, Cullimore V, Kamal F, Lendor J, McKay J, Mcswiggan J, Minhas N, Seneviratne K, Simeen S, Valverde J, Watson N, Bloom I, Dinh TH, Hirniak J, Joseph R, Kansagra M, Lai CKN, Melamed N, Patel J, Randev J, Sedighi T, Shurovi B, Sodhi J, Vadgama N, Abdulla S, Adabavazeh B, Champion A, Chennupati R, Chu K, Devi S, Haji A, Schulz J, Testa F, Davies P, Gurung B, Howell S, Modi P, Pervaiz A, Zahid M, Abdolrazaghi S, Abi Aoun R, Anjum Z, Bawa G, Bhardwaj R, Brown S, Enver M, Gill D, Gopikrishna D, Gurung D, Kanwal A, Kaushal P, Khanna A, Lovell E, McEvoy C, Mirza M, Nabeel S, Naseem S, Pandya K, Perkins R, Pulakal R, Ray M, Reay C, Reilly S, Round A, Seehra J, Shakeel NM, Singh B, Vijay Sukhnani M, Brown L, Desai B, Elzanati H, Godhaniya J, Kavanagh E, Kent J, Kishor A, Liu A, Norwood M, Shaari N, Wood C, Wood M, Brown A, Chellapuri A, Ferriman A, Ghosh I, Kulkarni N, Noton T, Pinto A, Rajesh S, Varghese B, Wenban C, Aly R, Barciela C, Brookes T, Corrin E, Goldsworthy M, Mohamed Azhar MS, Moore J, Nakhuda S, Ng D, Pillay S, Port S, Abdullah M, Akinyemi J, Islam S, Kale A, Lewis A, Manjunath T, McCabe H, Misra S, Stubley T, Tam JP, Waraich N, Chaora T, Ford C, Osinkolu I, Pong G, Rai J, Risquet R, Ainsworth J, Ayandokun P, Barham E, Barrett G, Barry J, Bisson E, Bridges I, Burke D, Cann J, Cloney M, Coates S, Cripps P, Davies C, Francis N, Green S, Handley G, Hathaway D, Hurt L, Jenkins S, Johnston C, Khadka A, McGee U, Morris D, Murray R, Norbury C, Pierrepont Z, Richards C, Ross O, Ruddy A, Salmon C, Shield M, Soanes K, Spencer N, Taverner S, Williams C, Wills-Wood W, Woodward S, Chow J, Fan J, Guest O, Hunter I, Moon WY, Arthur-Quarm S, Edwards P, Hamlyn V, McEneaney L, N D G, Pranoy S, Ting M, Abada S, Alawattegama LH, Ashok A, Carey C, Gogna A, Haglund C, Hurley P, Leelo N, Liu B, Mannan F, Paramjothy K, Ramlogan K, Raymond-Hayling O, Shanmugarajah A, Solichan D, Wilkinson B, Ahmad NA, Allan D, Amin A, Bakina C, Burns F, Cameron F, Campbell A, Cavanagh S, Chan SMZ, Chapman S, Chong V, Edelsten E, Ekpete O, El Sheikh M, Ghose R, Hassane A, Henderson C, Hilton-Christie S, Husain M, Hussain H, Javid Z, Johnson-Ogbuneke J, Johnston A, Khalil M, Leung TCC, Makin I, Muralidharan V, Naeem M, Patil P, Ravichandran S, Saraeva D, Shankey-Smith W, Sharma N, Swan R, Waudby-West R, Wilkinson A, Wright K, Balasubramanian A, Bhatti S, Chalkley M, Chou WK, Dixon M, Evans L, Fisher K, Gandhi P, Ho S, Lau YB, Lowe S, Meechan C, Murali N, Musonda C, Njoku P, Ochieng L, Pervez MU, Seebah K, Shaikh I, Sikder MA, Vanker R, Alom J, Bajaj V, Coleman O, Finch G, Goss J, Jenkins C, Kontothanassis A, Liew MS, Ng K, Outram M, Shakeel MM, Tawn J, Zuhairy S, Chapple K, Cinnamond A, Coleman S, George HA, Goulder L, Hare N, Hawksley J, Kret A, Luesley A, Mecia L, Porter H, Puddy E, Richardson G, Sohail B, Srikaran V, Tadross D, Tobin J, Tokidis E, Young L, Ashdown T, Bratsos S, Koomson A, Kufuor A, Lim MQ, Shah S, Thorne EPC, Warusavitarne J, Xu S, Abigail S, Ahmed A, Ahmed J, Akmal A, Al-Khafaji M, Amini B, Arshad M, Bogie E, Brazkiewicz M, Carroll M, Chandegra A, Cirelli C, Deng A, Fairclough S, Fung YJ, Gornell C, Green RL, Green SV, Gulamhussein AHM, Isaac AG, Jan R, Jegatheeswaran L, Knee M, Kotecha J, Kotecha S, Maxwell-Armstrong C, McIntyre C, Mendis N, Naing TKP, Oberman J, Ong ZX, Ramalingam A, Saeed Adam A, Tan LL, Towell S, Yadav J, Anandampillai R, Chung S, Hounat A, Ibrahim B, Jeyakumar G, Khalil A, Khan UA, Nair G, Owusu-Ayim M, Wilson M, Kanani A, Kilkelly B, Ogunmwonyi I, Ong L, Samra B, Schomerus L, Shea J, Turner O, Yang Y, Amin M, Blott N, Clark A, Feather A, Forrest M, Hague S, Hamilton K, Higginbotham G, Hope E, Karimian S, 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H, Sandberg C, Smith H, Al Bakry M, Ashwell W, Bajaj S, Bandyopadhyay D, Browlee O, Burway S, Chand CP, Elsayeh K, Elsharkawi A, Evans E, Ferrin S, Fort-Schaale A, Iacob M, I K, Impelliziere Licastro G, Mankoo AS, Olaniyan T, Otun J, Pereira R, Reddy R, Saeed D, Simmonds O, Singhal G, Tron K, Wickstone C, Williams R, Bradshaw E, De Kock Jewell V, Houlden C, Knight C, Metezai H, Mirza-Davies A, Seymour Z, Spink D, Wischhusen S. Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. Lancet Digit Health 2022; 4:e520-e531. [PMID: 35750401 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00069-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2021] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. METHODS We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). FINDINGS In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]). INTERPRETATION In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. FUNDING British Journal of Surgery Society.
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