Guess who's not coming to dinner? Evaluating online restaurant reservations for disease surveillance

No-Show Rates in an Academic Otolaryngology Practice Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVE

Our objectives were to determine the no-show and nonattendance rate for an outpatient academic otolaryngology practice, to identify patient and systemic factors associated with nonattendance, and to evaluate the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on the rate of nonattendance.

METHODS

This is a retrospective review of the Epic practice management and billing reports from all scheduled outpatient visits at a multi-physician, academic, general, and sub-specialty otolaryngology practice from January 2019 to December 2021.

RESULTS

Over three years, 121,347 clinic visits were scheduled in the otolaryngology practice. The overall nonattendance rate was 18.3%. A statistically significant increase in nonattendance was noted during the COVID-19 pandemic (16.8% vs. 19.8%, p < 0.001). The rate of nonattendance in patients of younger age (under 18 years) (p <0.001), female gender (p=0.03), afternoon appointments (p=0.04), and extended time between the day of scheduling and the day of appointment (p <0.001) increased. Head and neck clinics were found to have the lowest nonattendance rates, while pediatric otolaryngology clinics had the highest (12.6% vs. 21.3%). On multivariate regression, younger age (p < 0.001), female gender (p=0.01), afternoon appointments (p< 0.001), and online self-scheduling (p< 0.001) were significantly associated with nonattendance.

CONCLUSIONS

Both patient and appointment-related factors were found to impact rates of nonattendance in this academic otolaryngology practice. In this study, young age, female gender, afternoon appointments, and online self-scheduling were associated with increased nonattendance. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted no-show rates across all otolaryngologic subspecialties.

Influenza surveillance systems using traditional and alternative sources of data: A scoping review

OBJECTIVE

While the World Health Organization's recommendation of syndromic sentinel surveillance for influenza is an efficient method to collect high-quality data, limitations exist. Aligned with the Research Recommendation 1.1.2 of the WHO Public Health Research Agenda for Influenza-to identify reliable complementary influenza surveillance systems which provide real-time estimates of influenza activity-we performed a scoping review to map the extent and nature of published literature on the use of non-traditional sources of syndromic surveillance data for influenza.

METHODS

We searched three electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) for articles in English, French, and Spanish, published between January 1 2007 and January 28 2022. Studies were included if they directly compared at least one non-traditional with a traditional influenza surveillance system in terms of correlation in activity or timeliness.

FINDINGS

We retrieved 823 articles of which 57 were included for analysis. Fifteen articles considered electronic health records (EHR), 11 participatory surveillance, 10 online searches and webpage traffic, seven Twitter, five absenteeism, four telephone health lines, three medication sales, two media reporting, and five looked at other miscellaneous sources of data. Several articles considered more than one non-traditional surveillance method.

CONCLUSION

We identified eight categories and a miscellaneous group of non-traditional influenza surveillance systems with varying levels of evidence on timeliness and correlation to traditional surveillance systems. Analyses of EHR and participatory surveillance systems appeared to have the most agreement on timeliness and correlation to traditional systems. Studies suggested non-traditional surveillance systems as complements rather than replacements to traditional systems.

Using Google Health Trends to investigate COVID-19 incidence in Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 500 million cases and over six million deaths globally. From these numbers, over 12 million cases and over 250 thousand deaths have occurred on the African continent as of May 2022. Prevention and surveillance remains the cornerstone of interventions to halt the further spread of COVID-19. Google Health Trends (GHT), a free Internet tool, may be valuable to help anticipate outbreaks, identify disease hotspots, or understand the patterns of disease surveillance. We collected COVID-19 case and death incidence for 54 African countries and obtained averages for four, five-month study periods in 2020–2021. Average case and death incidences were calculated during these four time periods to measure disease severity. We used GHT to characterize COVID-19 incidence across Africa, collecting numbers of searches from GHT related to COVID-19 using four terms: ‘coronavirus’, ‘coronavirus symptoms’, ‘COVID19’, and ‘pandemic’. The terms were related to weekly COVID-19 case incidences for the entire study period via multiple linear and weighted linear regression analyses. We also assembled 72 variables assessing Internet accessibility, demographics, economics, health, and others, for each country, to summarize potential mechanisms linking GHT searches and COVID-19 incidence. COVID-19 burden in Africa increased steadily during the study period. Important increases for COVID-19 death incidence were observed for Seychelles and Tunisia. Our study demonstrated a weak correlation between GHT and COVID-19 incidence for most African countries. Several variables seemed useful in explaining the pattern of GHT statistics and their relationship to COVID-19 including: log of average weekly cases, log of cumulative total deaths, and log of fixed total number of broadband subscriptions in a country. Apparently, GHT may best be used for surveillance of diseases that are diagnosed more consistently. Overall, GHT-based surveillance showed little applicability in the studied countries. GHT for an ongoing epidemic might be useful in specific situations, such as when countries have significant levels of infection with low variability. Future studies might assess the algorithm in different epidemic contexts.

Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

Survey data and human computation for improved flu tracking

While digital trace data from sources like search engines hold enormous potential for tracking and understanding human behavior, these streams of data lack information about the actual experiences of those individuals generating the data. Moreover, most current methods ignore or under-utilize human processing capabilities that allow humans to solve problems not yet solvable by computers (human computation). We demonstrate how behavioral research, linking digital and real-world behavior, along with human computation, can be utilized to improve the performance of studies using digital data streams. This study looks at the use of search data to track prevalence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI). We build a behavioral model of flu search based on survey data linked to users' online browsing data. We then utilize human computation for classifying search strings. Leveraging these resources, we construct a tracking model of ILI prevalence that outperforms strong historical benchmarks using only a limited stream of search data and lends itself to tracking ILI in smaller geographic units. While this paper only addresses searches related to ILI, the method we describe has potential for tracking a broad set of phenomena in near real-time.

Social Media- and Internet-Based Disease Surveillance for Public Health

Disease surveillance systems are a cornerstone of public health tracking and prevention. This review addresses the use, promise, perils, and ethics of social media- and Internet-based data collection for public health surveillance. Our review highlights untapped opportunities for integrating digital surveillance in public health and current applications that could be improved through better integration, validation, and clarity on rules surrounding ethical considerations. Promising developments include hybrid systems that couple traditional surveillance data with data from search queries, social media posts, and crowdsourcing. In the future, it will be important to identify opportunities for public and private partnerships, train public health experts in data science, reduce biases related to digital data (gathered from Internet use, wearable devices, etc.), and address privacy. We are on the precipice of an unprecedented opportunity to track, predict, and prevent global disease burdens in the population using digital data.

Use of Social Media, Search Queries, and Demographic Data to Assess Obesity Prevalence in the United States

Obesity is a global epidemic affecting millions. Implementation of interventions to curb obesity rates requires timely surveillance. In this study, we estimated sex-specific obesity prevalence using social media, search queries, demographics and built environment variables. We collected 3,817,125 and 1,382,284 geolocated tweets on food and exercise respectively, from Twitter's streaming API from April 2015 to March 2016. We also obtained searches related to physical activity and diet from Google Search Trends for the same time period. Next, we inferred the gender of Twitter users using machine learning methods and applied mixed-effects state-level linear regression models to estimate obesity prevalence. We observed differences in discussions of physical activity and foods, with males reporting higher intensity physical activities and lower caloric foods across 40 and 48 states, respectively. Additionally, counties with the highest percentage of exercise and food tweets had lower male and female obesity prevalence. Lastly, our models separately captured overall male and female spatial trends in obesity prevalence. The average correlation between actual and estimated obesity prevalence was 0.789 (95% CI, 0.785, 0.786) and 0.830 (95% CI, 0.830, 0.831) for males and females, respectively. Social media can provide timely community-level data on health information seeking and changes in behaviors, sentiments and norms. Social media data can also be combined with other data types such as, demographics, built environment variables, diet and physical activity indicators from other digital sources (e.g., mobile applications and wearables) to monitor health behaviors at different geographic scales, and to supplement delayed estimates from traditional surveillance systems.

The potential use of social media and other internet-related data and communications for child maltreatment surveillance and epidemiological research: Scoping review and recommendations

Collecting child maltreatment data is a complicated undertaking for many reasons. As a result, there is an interest by child maltreatment researchers to develop methodologies that allow for the triangulation of data sources. To better understand how social media and internet-based technologies could contribute to these approaches, we conducted a scoping review to provide an overview of social media and internet-based methodologies for health research, to report results of evaluation and validation research on these methods, and to highlight studies with potential relevance to child maltreatment research and surveillance. Many approaches were identified in the broad health literature; however, there has been limited application of these approaches to child maltreatment. The most common use was recruiting participants or engaging existing participants using online methods. From the broad health literature, social media and internet-based approaches to surveillance and epidemiologic research appear promising. Many of the approaches are relatively low cost and easy to implement without extensive infrastructure, but there are also a range of limitations for each method. Several methods have a mixed record of validation and sources of error in estimation are not yet understood or predictable. In addition to the problems relevant to other health outcomes, child maltreatment researchers face additional challenges, including the complex ethical issues associated with both internet-based and child maltreatment research. If these issues are adequately addressed, social media and internet-based technologies may be a promising approach to reducing some of the limitations in existing child maltreatment data.

Digital Epidemiology: Use of Digital Data Collected for Non-epidemiological Purposes in Epidemiological Studies

Objectives

We reviewed digital epidemiological studies to characterize how researchers are using digital data by topic domain, study purpose, data source, and analytic method.

Methods

We reviewed research articles published within the last decade that used digital data to answer epidemiological research questions. Data were abstracted from these articles using a data collection tool that we developed. Finally, we summarized the characteristics of the digital epidemiological studies.

Results

We identified six main topic domains: infectious diseases (58.7%), non-communicable diseases (29.4%), mental health and substance use (8.3%), general population behavior (4.6%), environmental, dietary, and lifestyle (4.6%), and vital status (0.9%). We identified four categories for the study purpose: description (22.9%), exploration (34.9%), explanation (27.5%), and prediction and control (14.7%). We identified eight categories for the data sources: web search query (52.3%), social media posts (31.2%), web portal posts (11.9%), webpage access logs (7.3%), images (7.3%), mobile phone network data (1.8%), global positioning system data (1.8%), and others (2.8%). Of these, 50.5% used correlation analyses, 41.3% regression analyses, 25.6% machine learning, and 19.3% descriptive analyses.

Conclusions

Digital data collected for non-epidemiological purposes are being used to study health phenomena in a variety of topic domains. Digital epidemiology requires access to large datasets and advanced analytics. Ensuring open access is clearly at odds with the desire to have as little personal data as possible in these large datasets to protect privacy. Establishment of data cooperatives with restricted access may be a solution to this dilemma.

Self-Swabbing for Virological Confirmation of Influenza-Like Illness Among an Internet-Based Cohort in the UK During the 2014-2015 Flu Season: Pilot Study

Background

Routine influenza surveillance, based on laboratory confirmation of viral infection, often fails to estimate the true burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the community because those with ILI often manage their own symptoms without visiting a health professional. Internet-based surveillance can complement this traditional surveillance by measuring symptoms and health behavior of a population with minimal time delay. Flusurvey, the UK’s largest crowd-sourced platform for surveillance of influenza, collects routine data on more than 6000 voluntary participants and offers real-time estimates of ILI circulation. However, one criticism of this method of surveillance is that it is only able to assess ILI, rather than virologically confirmed influenza.

Objective

We designed a pilot study to see if it was feasible to ask individuals from the Flusurvey platform to perform a self-swabbing task and to assess whether they were able to collect samples with a suitable viral content to detect an influenza virus in the laboratory.

Methods

Virological swabbing kits were sent to pilot study participants, who then monitored their ILI symptoms over the influenza season (2014-2015) through the Flusurvey platform. If they reported ILI, they were asked to undertake self-swabbing and return the swabs to a Public Health England laboratory for multiplex respiratory virus polymerase chain reaction testing.

Results

A total of 700 swab kits were distributed at the start of the study; from these, 66 participants met the definition for ILI and were asked to return samples. In all, 51 samples were received in the laboratory, 18 of which tested positive for a viral cause of ILI (35%).

Conclusions

This demonstrated proof of concept that it is possible to apply self-swabbing for virological laboratory testing to an online cohort study. This pilot does not have significant numbers to validate whether Flusurvey surveillance accurately reflects influenza infection in the community, but highlights that the methodology is feasible. Self-swabbing could be expanded to larger online surveillance activities, such as during the initial stages of a pandemic, to understand community transmission or to better assess interseasonal activity.

Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media

This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) units capable of nowcasting (predicting in “real-time”) and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 – 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from social media can be potentially used to accurately forecast ILI dynamics for the regions where ILI historical data is not available. (d) Neural network models learned from combined ILI and social media signals significantly outperform models that rely solely on ILI historical data, which adds to a great potential of alternative public sources for ILI dynamics prediction. (e) Location-specific models outperform previously used location-independent models e.g., U.S. only. (f) Prediction results significantly vary across geolocations depending on the amount of social media data available and ILI activity patterns. (g) Model performance improves with more tweets available per geo-location e.g., the error gets lower and the Pearson score gets higher for locations with more tweets.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources

OBJECTIVES

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes.

METHODS

Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance.

RESULTS

We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy.

CONCLUSION

The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems.

Public Health Surveillance Systems: Recent Advances in Their Use and Evaluation

Surveillance is critical for improving population health. Public health surveillance systems generate information that drives action, and the data must be of sufficient quality and with a resolution and timeliness that matches objectives. In the context of scientific advances in public health surveillance, changing health care and public health environments, and rapidly evolving technologies, the aim of this article is to review public health surveillance systems. We consider their current use to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the public health system, the role of system stakeholders, the analysis and interpretation of surveillance data, approaches to system monitoring and evaluation, and opportunities for future advances in terms of increased scientific rigor, outcomes-focused research, and health informatics.

Mind the Scales: Harnessing Spatial Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Inference

Spatial big data have the velocity, volume, and variety of big data sources and contain additional geographic information. Digital data sources, such as medical claims, mobile phone call data records, and geographically tagged tweets, have entered infectious diseases epidemiology as novel sources of data to complement traditional infectious disease surveillance. In this work, we provide examples of how spatial big data have been used thus far in epidemiological analyses and describe opportunities for these sources to improve disease-mitigation strategies and public health coordination. In addition, we consider the technical, practical, and ethical challenges with the use of spatial big data in infectious disease surveillance and inference. Finally, we discuss the implications of the rising use of spatial big data in epidemiology to health risk communication, and public health policy recommendations and coordination across scales.

Forecasting the Incidence of Dementia and Dementia-Related Outpatient Visits With Google Trends: Evidence From Taiwan

Background

Google Trends has demonstrated the capability to both monitor and predict epidemic outbreaks. The connection between Internet searches for dementia information and dementia incidence and dementia-related outpatient visits remains unknown.

Objective

This study aimed to determine whether Google Trends could provide insight into trends in dementia incidence and related outpatient visits in Taiwan. We investigated and validated the local search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We further evaluated the nowcasting (ie, forecasting the present) and forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends for new dementia cases and outpatient visits. The long-term goal is to develop a surveillance system to help early detection and interventions for dementia in Taiwan.

Methods

This study collected (1) dementia data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database and (2) local Internet search data from Google Trends, both from January 2009 to December 2011. We investigated and validated search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We then evaluated both the nowcasting and the forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends through cross-correlation analysis of the dementia incidence and outpatient visit data with the Google Trends data.

Results

The search term “dementia + Alzheimer’s disease” demonstrated a 3-month lead effect for new dementia cases and a 6-month lead effect for outpatient visits (r=.503, P=.002; r=.431, P=.009, respectively). When gender was included in the analysis, the search term “dementia” showed 6-month predictive power for new female dementia cases (r=.520, P=.001), but only a nowcasting effect for male cases (r=.430, P=.009). The search term “neurology” demonstrated a 3-month leading effect for new dementia cases (r=.433, P=.008), for new male dementia cases (r=.434, P=.008), and for outpatient visits (r=.613, P<.001).

Conclusions

Google Trends established a plausible relationship between search terms and new dementia cases and dementia-related outpatient visits in Taiwan. This data may allow the health care system in Taiwan to prepare for upcoming outpatient and dementia screening visits. In addition, the validated search term results can be used to provide caregivers with caregiving-related health, skills, and social welfare information by embedding dementia-related search keywords in relevant online articles.

Using Social Media for Actionable Disease Surveillance and Outbreak Management: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVE

Research studies show that social media may be valuable tools in the disease surveillance toolkit used for improving public health professionals' ability to detect disease outbreaks faster than traditional methods and to enhance outbreak response. A social media work group, consisting of surveillance practitioners, academic researchers, and other subject matter experts convened by the International Society for Disease Surveillance, conducted a systematic primary literature review using the PRISMA framework to identify research, published through February 2013, answering either of the following questions: Can social media be integrated into disease surveillance practice and outbreak management to support and improve public health?Can social media be used to effectively target populations, specifically vulnerable populations, to test an intervention and interact with a community to improve health outcomes?Examples of social media included are Facebook, MySpace, microblogs (e.g., Twitter), blogs, and discussion forums. For Question 1, 33 manuscripts were identified, starting in 2009 with topics on Influenza-like Illnesses (n = 15), Infectious Diseases (n = 6), Non-infectious Diseases (n = 4), Medication and Vaccines (n = 3), and Other (n = 5). For Question 2, 32 manuscripts were identified, the first in 2000 with topics on Health Risk Behaviors (n = 10), Infectious Diseases (n = 3), Non-infectious Diseases (n = 9), and Other (n = 10).

CONCLUSIONS

The literature on the use of social media to support public health practice has identified many gaps and biases in current knowledge. Despite the potential for success identified in exploratory studies, there are limited studies on interventions and little use of social media in practice. However, information gleaned from the articles demonstrates the effectiveness of social media in supporting and improving public health and in identifying target populations for intervention. A primary recommendation resulting from the review is to identify opportunities that enable public health professionals to integrate social media analytics into disease surveillance and outbreak management practice.

Characterizing Sleep Issues Using Twitter

BACKGROUND

Sleep issues such as insomnia affect over 50 million Americans and can lead to serious health problems, including depression and obesity, and can increase risk of injury. Social media platforms such as Twitter offer exciting potential for their use in studying and identifying both diseases and social phenomenon.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to determine whether social media can be used as a method to conduct research focusing on sleep issues.

METHODS

Twitter posts were collected and curated to determine whether a user exhibited signs of sleep issues based on the presence of several keywords in tweets such as insomnia, "can't sleep", Ambien, and others. Users whose tweets contain any of the keywords were designated as having self-identified sleep issues (sleep group). Users who did not have self-identified sleep issues (non-sleep group) were selected from tweets that did not contain pre-defined words or phrases used as a proxy for sleep issues.

RESULTS

User data such as number of tweets, friends, followers, and location were collected, as well as the time and date of tweets. Additionally, the sentiment of each tweet and average sentiment of each user were determined to investigate differences between non-sleep and sleep groups. It was found that sleep group users were significantly less active on Twitter (P=.04), had fewer friends (P<.001), and fewer followers (P<.001) compared to others, after adjusting for the length of time each user's account has been active. Sleep group users were more active during typical sleeping hours than others, which may suggest they were having difficulty sleeping. Sleep group users also had significantly lower sentiment in their tweets (P<.001), indicating a possible relationship between sleep and pyschosocial issues.

CONCLUSIONS

We have demonstrated a novel method for studying sleep issues that allows for fast, cost-effective, and customizable data to be gathered.

Monitoring disease trends using hospital traffic data from high resolution satellite imagery: a feasibility study

Challenges with alternative data sources for disease surveillance include differentiating the signal from the noise, and obtaining information from data constrained settings. For the latter, events such as increases in hospital traffic could serve as early indicators of social disruption resulting from disease. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of using hospital parking lot traffic data extracted from high-resolution satellite imagery to augment public health disease surveillance in Chile, Argentina and Mexico. We used archived satellite imagery collected from January 2010 to May 2013 and data on the incidence of respiratory virus illnesses from the Pan American Health Organization as a reference. We developed dynamical Elastic Net multivariable linear regression models to estimate the incidence of respiratory virus illnesses using hospital traffic and assessed how to minimize the effects of noise on the models. We noted that predictions based on models fitted using a sample of observations were better. The results were consistent across countries with selected models having reasonably low normalized root-mean-squared errors and high correlations for both the fits and predictions. The observations from this study suggest that if properly procured and combined with other information, this data source could be useful for monitoring disease trends.

Modeling and Predicting Human Infectious Diseases

The spreading of infectious diseases has dramatically shaped our history and society. The quest to understand and prevent their spreading dates more than two centuries. Over the years, advances in Medicine, Biology, Mathematics, Physics, Network Science, Computer Science, and Technology in general contributed to the development of modern epidemiology. In this chapter, we present a summary of different mathematical and computational approaches aimed at describing, modeling, and forecasting the diffusion of viruses. We start from the basic concepts and models in an unstructured population and gradually increase the realism by adding the effects of realistic contact structures within a population as well as the effects of human mobility coupling different subpopulations. Building on these concepts we present two realistic data-driven epidemiological models able to forecast the spreading of infectious diseases at different geographical granularities. We conclude by introducing some recent developments in diseases modeling rooted in the big-data revolution.

Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities

Novel data streams (NDS), such as web search data or social media updates, hold promise for enhancing the capabilities of public health surveillance. In this paper, we outline a conceptual framework for integrating NDS into current public health surveillance. Our approach focuses on two key questions: What are the opportunities for using NDS and what are the minimal tests of validity and utility that must be applied when using NDS? Identifying these opportunities will necessitate the involvement of public health authorities and an appreciation of the diversity of objectives and scales across agencies at different levels (local, state, national, international). We present the case that clearly articulating surveillance objectives and systematically evaluating NDS and comparing the performance of NDS to existing surveillance data and alternative NDS data is critical and has not sufficiently been addressed in many applications of NDS currently in the literature.

The Long Way From Government Open Data to Mobile Health Apps: Overcoming Institutional Barriers in the US Federal Government

BACKGROUND

Government agencies in the United States are creating mobile health (mHealth) apps as part of recent policy changes initiated by the White House's Digital Government Strategy.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to understand the institutional and managerial barriers for the implementation of mHealth, as well as the resulting adoption pathways of mHealth.

METHODS

This article is based on insights derived from qualitative interview data with 35 public managers in charge of promoting the reuse of open data through Challenge.gov, the platform created to run prizes, challenges, and the vetting and implementation of the winning and vendor-created apps.

RESULTS

The process of designing apps follows three different pathways: (1) entrepreneurs start to see opportunities for mobile apps, and develop either in-house or contract out to already vetted Web design vendors; (2) a top-down policy mandates agencies to adopt at least two customer-facing mobile apps; and (3) the federal government uses a policy instrument called "Prizes and Challenges", encouraging civic hackers to design health-related mobile apps using open government data from HealthData.gov, in combination with citizen needs. All pathways of the development process incur a set of major obstacles that have to be actively managed before agencies can promote mobile apps on their websites and app stores.

CONCLUSIONS

Beyond the cultural paradigm shift to design interactive apps and to open health-related data to the public, the managerial challenges include accessibility, interoperability, security, privacy, and legal concerns using interactive apps tracking citizen.

What can digital disease detection learn from (an external revision to) Google Flu Trends?

BACKGROUND

Google Flu Trends (GFT) claimed to generate real-time, valid predictions of population influenza-like illness (ILI) using search queries, heralding acclaim and replication across public health. However, recent studies have questioned the validity of GFT.

PURPOSE

To propose an alternative methodology that better realizes the potential of GFT, with collateral value for digital disease detection broadly.

METHODS

Our alternative method automatically selects specific queries to monitor and autonomously updates the model each week as new information about CDC-reported ILI becomes available, as developed in 2013. Root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and Pearson correlations comparing predicted ILI (proportion of patient visits indicative of ILI) with subsequently observed ILI were used to judge model performance.

RESULTS

During the height of the H1N1 pandemic (August 2 to December 22, 2009) and the 2012-2013 season (September 30, 2012, to April 12, 2013), GFT's predictions had RMSEs of 0.023 and 0.022 (i.e., hypothetically, if GFT predicted 0.061 ILI one week, it is expected to err by 0.023) and correlations of r=0.916 and 0.927. Our alternative method had RMSEs of 0.006 and 0.009, and correlations of r=0.961 and 0.919 for the same periods. Critically, during these important periods, the alternative method yielded more accurate ILI predictions every week, and was typically more accurate during other influenza seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

GFT may be inaccurate, but improved methodologic underpinnings can yield accurate predictions. Applying similar methods elsewhere can improve digital disease detection, with broader transparency, improved accuracy, and real-world public health impacts.

Characterizing Influenza surveillance systems performance: application of a Bayesian hierarchical statistical model to Hong Kong surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Infectious disease surveillance is a process the product of which reflects both actual disease trends and public awareness of the disease. Decisions made by patients, health care providers, and public health professionals about seeking and providing health care and about reporting cases to health authorities are all influenced by the information environment, which changes constantly. Biases are therefore imbedded in surveillance systems; these biases need to be characterized to provide better situational awareness for decision-making purposes. Our goal is to develop a statistical framework to characterize influenza surveillance systems, particularly their correlation with the information environment.

METHODS

We identified Hong Kong influenza surveillance data systems covering healthcare providers, laboratories, daycare centers and residential care homes for the elderly. A Bayesian hierarchical statistical model was developed to examine the statistical relationships between the influenza surveillance data and the information environment represented by alerts from HealthMap and web queries from Google. Different models were fitted for non-pandemic and pandemic periods and model goodness-of-fit was assessed using common model selection procedures.

RESULTS

Some surveillance systems - especially ad hoc systems developed in response to the pandemic flu outbreak - are more correlated with the information environment than others. General practitioner (percentage of influenza-like-illness related patient visits among all patient visits) and laboratory (percentage of specimen tested positive) seem to proportionally reflect the actual disease trends and are less representative of the information environment. Surveillance systems using influenza-specific code for reporting tend to reflect biases of both healthcare seekers and providers.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows certain influenza surveillance systems are less correlated with the information environment than others, and therefore, might represent more reliable indicators of disease activity in future outbreaks. Although the patterns identified in this study might change in future outbreaks, the potential susceptibility of surveillance data is likely to persist in the future, and should be considered when interpreting surveillance data.