Coronary artery calcium scanning: a useful tool for refining heart failure risk prediction?

Incorporation of Biomarkers Into Risk Assessment for Allocation of Antihypertensive Medication According to the 2017 ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guideline: A Pooled Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was a novel consideration for antihypertensive medication initiation in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Blood Pressure (BP) guideline. Whether biomarkers of chronic myocardial injury (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T ≥6 ng/L] and stress (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] ≥100 pg/mL) can inform cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification and treatment decisions among adults with elevated BP and hypertension is unclear.

METHODS

Participant-level data from 3 cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Dallas Heart Study, and Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were pooled, excluding individuals with prevalent CV disease and those taking antihypertensive medication at baseline. Participants were analyzed according to BP treatment group from the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association BP guideline and those with high BP (120 to 159/<100 mm Hg) were further stratified by biomarker status. Cumulative incidence rates for CV event (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or heart failure), and the corresponding 10-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 event with intensive BP lowering (to target systolic BP <120 mm Hg), were estimated for BP and biomarker-based subgroups.

RESULTS

The study included 12 987 participants (mean age, 55 years; 55% women; 21.5% with elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 17.7% with elevated NT-proBNP) with 825 incident CV events over 10-year follow-up. Participants with elevated BP or hypertension not recommended for antihypertensive medication with versus without either elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T or NT-proBNP had a 10-year CV incidence rate of 11.0% and 4.6%, with a 10-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 event for intensive BP lowering of 36 and 85, respectively. Among participants with stage 1 or stage 2 hypertension recommended for antihypertensive medication with BP <160/100 mm Hg, those with versus without an elevated biomarker had a 10-year CV incidence rate of 15.1% and 7.9%, with a 10-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 event of 26 and 49, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevations in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T or NT-proBNP identify individuals with elevated BP or hypertension not currently recommended for antihypertensive medication who are at high risk for CV events. The presence of nonelevated biomarkers, even in the setting of stage 1 or stage 2 hypertension, was associated with lower risk. Incorporation of biomarkers into risk assessment algorithms may lead to more appropriate matching of intensive BP control with patient risk.

Progression of Coronary Artery Calcium and Incident Heart Failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

Although the association between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and future heart failure (HF) has been shown previously, the value of CAC progression in the prediction of HF has not been investigated. In this study, we investigated the association of CAC progression with subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and incident HF in the Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Methods and Results

The Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a population‐based study consisting of 6814 men and women aged 45 to 84, free of overt cardiovascular disease at enrollment, who were recruited from 4 ethnicities. We included 5644 Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who had baseline and follow‐up cardiac computed tomography and were free of HF and coronary heart disease before the second cardiac computed tomography. Mean (±SD) age was 61.7±10.2 years and 47.2% were male. The Cox proportional hazard models and multivariable linear regression models were deployed to determine the association of CAC progression with incident HF and subclinical LV dysfunction, respectively. Over a median follow‐up of 9.6 (interquartile range: 8.8–10.6) years, 182 participants developed incident HF. CAC progression of 10 units per year was associated with 3% of increased risk of HF independent of overt coronary heart disease (P=0.008). In 2818 participants with available cardiac magnetic resonance images, CAC progression was associated with increased LV end diastolic volume (β=0.16; P=0.03) and LV end systolic volume (β=0.12; P=0.006) after excluding participants with any coronary heart disease.

Conclusions

CAC progression was associated with incident HF and modestly increased LV end diastolic volume and LV end systolic volume at follow‐up exam independent of overt coronary heart disease.