The rationale for targeting the JAK/STAT pathway in scleroderma-associated interstitial lung disease

S2k guideline: Diagnosis and therapy of localized scleroderma

The updated S2k guideline deals with the diagnosis and therapy of localized scleroderma (LoS). LoS represents a spectrum of sclerotic skin diseases in which, depending on the subtype and localisation, structures such as adipose tissue, muscles, joints, and bones may also be affected. Involvement of internal organs or progression to systemic sclerosis does not occur. LoS can be classified into four main forms: limited, generalized, linear, and mixed forms, with some additional subtypes. For cases of limited skin involvement, the guideline primarily recommends therapy with topical corticosteroids. UV therapy can also be recommended. In subtypes with severe skin or musculoskeletal involvement, systemic therapy with methotrexate is recommended. During the active phase of the disease, systemic glucocorticosteroids can be used additionally. In cases of methotrexate and steroid refractory courses, contraindications, or intolerance, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolic acid, or abatacept can be considered as second-line systemic therapies. In the case of linear LoS, autologous adipose-derived stem cell transplantation can also be performed for correcting soft tissue defects.

S2k‐Leitlinie: Diagnostik und Therapie der zirkumskripten Sklerodermie

Die vorliegende aktualisierte S2k‐Leitlinie befasst sich mit der Diagnostik und der Therapie der zirkumskripten Sklerodermie (ZS). Diese umfasst ein Spektrum sklerotischer Erkrankungen der Haut mit, je nach Subtyp und Lokalisation, möglicher Beteiligung von hautnahen Strukturen wie Fettgewebe, Muskulatur, Gelenke und Knochen. Ein Befall innerer Organe oder ein Übergang in eine systemische Sklerodermie treten nicht auf. Eingeteilt werden kann die ZS in die vier Hauptformen der limitierten, generalisierten, linearen und gemischten Form. Teilweise existieren weitere Unterformen. Bei limitiertem Hautbefall empfiehlt die Leitlinie primär eine Therapie mit topischen Kortikosteroiden. Eine UV‐Therapie kann ebenfalls sinnvoll sein. Bei Subtypen mit schwerem Hautbefall oder muskuloskelettalem Befall wird eine systemische Therapie mit Methotrexat empfohlen. In der aktiven Phase der Erkrankung können ergänzend systemische Glukokortikosteroide eingesetzt werden. Bei MTX‐ und Steroid‐refraktären Verläufen, Kontraindikation oder Unverträglichkeit sollten Mycophenolat‐Mofetil, Mycophenolsäure oder Abatacept als Systemtherapie der zweiten Wahl eingesetzt werden. Bei einer linearen ZS kann zudem eine autologe Fettstammzelltransplantation zur Korrektur von Weichteildefekten erfolgen.

Medicinal chemistry perspective of JAK inhibitors: synthesis, biological profile, selectivity, and structure activity relationship

JAK-STAT signalling pathway was discovered more than quarter century ago. The JAK-STAT pathway protein is considered as one of the crucial hubs for cytokine secretion which mediates activation of different inflammatory, cellular responses and hence involved in different etiological factors. The various etiological factors involved are haematopoiesis, immune fitness, tissue repair, inflammation, apoptosis, and adipogenesis. The presence of the active mutation V617K plays a significant role in the progression of the JAK-STAT pathway-related disease. Consequently, targeting the JAK-STAT pathway could be a promising therapeutic approach for addressing a range of causative factors. In this current review, we provided a comprehensive discussion for the in-detail study of anatomy and physiology of the JAK-STAT pathway which contributes structural domain rearrangement, activation, and negative regulation associated with the downstream signaling pathway, relationship between different cytokines and diseases. This review also discussed the recent development of clinical trial entities. Additionally, this review also provides updates on FDA-approved drugs. In the current investigation, we have classified recently developed small molecule inhibitors of JAK-STAT pathway according to different chemical classes and we emphasized their synthetic routes, biological evaluation, selectivity, and structure-activity relationship.

High serum C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) levels may be associated with new onset interstitial lung disease in patients with systemic sclerosis: evidence from observational, clinical, transcriptomic and in vitro studies

BACKGROUND

Systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is the leading cause of death in patients with SSc. There is an unmet need for predictive biomarkers to identify patients with SSc at risk of ILD. Previous studies have shown that interferon (IFN) pathways may play a role in SSc. We assessed the use of C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) as a predictive biomarker for new onset of ILD in patients with SSc.

METHODS

One-hundred-sixty-five (Female, N = 130) patients with SSc (SSc-ILD, N = 41) and 13 (Female, N = 8) healthy controls were investigated retrospectively. CXCL10 protein levels were measured by ELISA. We performed log rank analysis with baseline CXCL10 serum levels. CXCL10 nanoString data from lung tissues obtained from transplanted patients with SSc-ILD were extracted. Fifteen (Female, N = 10) patients with SSc (SSc-ILD, N = 7) were recruited for bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) procedure. Lung fibroblasts were treated with BAL-fluid or serum from patients with SSc with or without ILD. Inflammatory/fibrotic genes were assessed.

FINDINGS

Serum CXCL10 levels were higher in patients with SSc-ILD compared to SSc patients without ILD [Median (IQR):126 pg/ml (66-282.5) vs. 78.5 pg/ml (50-122), P = 0.029, 95% CI: 1.5 × 10-6 to 0.4284]. Survival analysis showed that baseline CXCL10 levels >78.5 pg/ml have a 2.74-fold increased risk of developing new onset of ILD (Log-rank: P = 0.119) on follow-up. CXCL10 levels in BAL supernatant were not different in patients with SSc-ILD compared to SSc without ILD [76.1 pg/ml (7.2-120.8) vs. 22.3 pg/ml (12.1-43.7), P = 0.24, 95% CI: -19.5 to 100]. NanoString showed that CXCL10 mRNA expression was higher in inflammatory compared to fibrotic lung tissues [4.7 (4.2-5.6) vs. 4.3 (3.6-4.7), P = 0.029]. Fibroblasts treated with SSc-ILD serum or BAL fluids overexpressed CXCL10.

INTERPRETATIONS

Clinical, transcriptomic, and in vitro data showed that CXCL10 is potentially involved in early SSc-ILD. More research is needed to confirm whether CXCL10 can be classified as a prospective biomarker to detect patients with SSc at higher risk of developing new onset ILD.

FUNDING

This collaborative project is co-financed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy of the Netherlands utilizing the PPP-allowance made available by the Top Sector Life Sciences & Health to stimulate public-private partnerships (PPP-2019_007). Part of this study is financially supported by Sanofi Genzyme (NL8921).

Application and Comparison of Dermoscopy and Reflectance Confocal Microscopy in the Target Treatment of Genital Lichen Sclerosus: A Single-Arm Prospective Study

INTRODUCTION

The treatment of genital lichen sclerosus (GLS) remains challenging. Baricitinib has been introduced in the treatment of GLS, but there's no imaging evaluation for GLS patients treated with it. No comparison of dermoscopy and reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) assessments in GLS has been conducted. We performed this study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of baricitinib for GLS and to compare the value of dermoscopy and RCM assessments in GLS.

METHODS

Participants were treated with baricitinib for 6 months and assessed at week 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and every 4 weeks for the next 16 weeks. All patients were evaluated for clinical, dermoscopic, and RCM variables, with numeric scores assigned to each parameter.

RESULTS

Twenty-six GLS patients were included in this study. All patients achieved Investigator's Global Assessment score ≤ 1 (with ≥ 2-grade improvement) at week 20. The scores of pruritus and pain decreased since week 2 (both P < 0.05). The DLQI and VQLI scores significantly decreased since week 4 (both P < 0.0001). White structureless areas improved at week 2 and white shiny streaks and follicular plugs improved at week 4 under dermoscopic examination. Vessels (P < 0.001) and brown structureless areas (P = 0.003) increased at week 8. In RCM, inflammatory cells count significantly decreased at week 2 (100.03 ± 33.24, P < 0.0001), with substantial regression at week 8 (16.98 ± 5.54, P < 0.0001). Epidermal thickness increased at week 12 (157.44 ± 37.87 μm versus 134.13 ± 36.60 μm, P = 0.0284). Irregular papillae, spongiosis, and fiber structures improved at week 20, week 4, and week 6 (all P < 0.01). Transient hypercholesterolemia (11.54%), thrombocytosis (7.69%), and elevated alanine aminotransferase (7.69%) occurred during treatment.

CONCLUSION

Both dermoscopy and RCM can be useful and non-invasive adjuvant tools for the evaluation and therapeutic monitoring of GLS. We recommended white structureless areas under dermoscopy and inflammatory cells count under RCM as variables for dermatologic imaging evaluation for GLS. Baricitinib is effective and safe for GLS, while randomized controlled trials are warranted.

Blockade of IL-11 Trans-Signaling or JAK2/STAT3 Signaling Ameliorates the Profibrotic Effect of IL-11

OBJECTIVES

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a rare rheumatic disease characterized by vascular damage, dysregulated immune response, and fibrosis. Interleukin-11 (IL-11) is upregulated in SSc. This study aimed to investigate the pathological and therapeutic role of the IL-11 trans-signaling pathway in SSc.

METHODS

Plasma IL-11 level was evaluated in 32 patients with SSc and 15 healthy controls, while the expression levels of ADAM10, ADAM17, IL-11, IL-11 Rα, or IL-11 co-stained with CD3 or CD163 in the skin of SSc patients and healthy controls were analyzed. Fibroblasts were treated with IL-11 and ionomycin to evaluate the profibrotic effect of IL-11 trans-signaling pathway. TJ301 (sgp130Fc) and WP1066 (a JAK2/STAT3 inhibitor) intervention groups were set up to investigate the antifibrotic effect of targeting IL-11.

RESULTS

Levels of plasma IL-11 were extremely low in most SSc patients and healthy controls. In contrast, levels of IL-11, IL-11 Rα, and ADAM10, but not ADAM17, were significantly elevated in the skin of SSc patients. Moreover, the numbers of IL-11+ CD3+ cells and IL-11+ CD163+ cells were increased in the skin of SSc patients. Besides, IL-11 and ADAM10 were also elevated in the skin and pulmonary of bleomycin-induced SSc mouse. Fibroblasts co-stimulated with IL-11 and ionomycin showed increased expression of COL3 and phosphorylation of STAT3, which could be inhibited by TJ301 or WP1066. TJ301 also ameliorated skin and lung fibrosis in BLM-induced SSc mouse.

CONCLUSIONS

IL-11 induces fibrosis in SSc by regulating the trans-signaling pathway. Blockage of sgp130Fc or inhibition of the JAK2/STAT3 pathway could ameliorate the profibrotic effect of IL-11.

Therapeutic Approaches to Systemic Sclerosis: Recent Approvals and Future Candidate Therapies

Systemic sclerosis is the rheumatic disease with the highest individual mortality. The severity of the disease is determined by the extent of fibrotic changes to cutaneous and internal organ tissues, the most life-threatening visceral manifestations being interstitial lung disease, SSc-associated-pulmonary arterial hypertension and myocardial involvement. The heterogeneity of the disease has initially hindered the design of successful clinical trials, but considerations on classification criteria have improved patient selection in trials, allowing the identification of more homogeneous groups of patients based on progressive visceral manifestations or the extent of skin involvement with a focus of patients with early disease. Two major subsets of systemic sclerosis are classically described: limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis characterized by distal skin fibrosis and the diffuse subset with distal and proximal skin thickening. Beyond this dichotomic subgrouping of systemic sclerosis, new phenotypic considerations based on antibody subtypes have provided a better understanding of the heterogeneity of the disease, anti-Scl70 antibodies being associated with progressive interstitial lung disease regardless of cutaneous involvement. Two targeted therapies, tocilizumab (a monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-6 receptors (IL-6R)) and nintedanib (a tyrosine kinase inhibitor), have recently been approved by the American Food & Drug Administration to limit the decline of lung function in patients with SSc-associated interstitial lung disease, demonstrating that such better understanding of the disease pathogenesis with the identification of key targets can lead to therapeutic advances in the management of some visceral manifestations of the disease. This review will provide a brief overview of the pathogenesis of SSc and will present a selection of therapies recently approved or evaluated in this context. Therapies evaluated and approved in SSc-ILD will be emphasized and a review of recent phase II trials in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis will be proposed. We will also discuss selected therapeutic pathways currently under investigation in systemic sclerosis that still lack clinical data in this context but that may show promising results in the future based on preclinical data.

The Role of JAK/STAT Pathway in Fibrotic Diseases: Molecular and Cellular Mechanisms

There are four members of the JAK family and seven of the STAT family in mammals. The JAK/STAT molecular pathway could be activated by broad hormones, cytokines, growth factors, and more. The JAK/STAT signaling pathway extensively mediates various biological processes such as cell proliferation, differentiation, migration, apoptosis, and immune regulation. JAK/STAT activation is closely related to growth and development, homeostasis, various solid tumors, inflammatory illness, and autoimmune diseases. Recently, with the deepening understanding of the JAK/STAT pathway, the relationship between JAK/STAT and the pathophysiology of fibrotic diseases was noticed, including the liver, renal, heart, bone marrow, and lung. JAK inhibitor has been approved for myelofibrosis, and subsequently, JAK/STAT may serve as a promising target for fibrosis in other organs. Therefore, this article reviews the roles and mechanisms of the JAK/STAT signaling pathway in fibrotic diseases.

Management of progressive pulmonary fibrosis associated with connective tissue disease

INTRODUCTION

: Fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a frequent and severe complication of connective tissue disease (CTD).

AREAS COVERED

: In this narrative review, we update the most relevant differential characteristics of fibrotic ILD associated with CTD (CTD-ILD) and propose a diagnostic and therapeutic approach based on a review of the articles published between 2002 and 2022 through PubMed.

EXPERT OPINION

: The subset of ILD, mainly the radiological/histological pattern and the degree of fibrotic component, usually determines the prognosis and therapeutic strategy for these patients. Some patients with CTD-ILD can develop progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) with severe deterioration of lung function, rapid progression to chronic respiratory failure, and high mortality. PPF has been described in many CTDs, mainly in systemic sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis, and requires a multidisciplinary diagnostic and therapeutic approach to improve patient outcomes.

Toward Molecular Stratification and Precision Medicine in Systemic Sclerosis

Systemic sclerosis (SSc), a complex multi-systemic disease characterized by immune dysregulation, vasculopathy and fibrosis, is associated with high mortality. Its pathogenesis is only partially understood. The heterogenous pathological processes that define SSc and its stages present a challenge to targeting appropriate treatment, with differing treatment outcomes of SSc patients despite similar initial clinical presentations. Timing of the appropriate treatments targeted at the underlying disease process is critical. For example, immunomodulatory treatments may be used for patients in a predominantly inflammatory phase, anti-fibrotic treatments for those in the fibrotic phase, or combination therapies for those in the fibro-inflammatory phase. In advancing personalized care through precision medicine, groups of patients with similar disease characteristics and shared pathological processes may be identified through molecular stratification. This would improve current clinical sub-setting systems and guide personalization of therapies. In this review, we will provide updates in SSc clinical and molecular stratification in relation to patient outcomes and treatment responses. Promises of molecular stratification through advances in high-dimensional tools, including omic-based stratification (transcriptomics, genomics, epigenomics, proteomics, cytomics, microbiomics) and machine learning will be discussed. Innovative and more granular stratification systems that integrate molecular characteristics to clinical phenotypes would potentially improve therapeutic approaches through personalized medicine and lead to better patient outcomes.

Pathogenesis and Treatment of T-Large Granular Lymphocytic Leukemia (T-LGLL) in the Setting of Rheumatic Disease

A complex relationship exists between rheumatic diseases and cancer. This delicate balance between chronic inflammation and malignant cell transformation in hematologic neoplasms has been observed, but is not well defined. Large Granular Lymphocyte (LGL) leukemia is at the intersection of a clonal lymphoproliferative disease, chronic inflammation, and autoimmunity. The association between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and the spectrum of Felty’s Syndrome is well-known. Other rheumatic disorders have been reported including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), Sjogren’s Syndrome (SS), vasculitis, Behcet’s Disease (BD) and systemic sclerosis. The association between T-LGLL and rheumatic disease pathogenesis has been hypothesized, but has not yet been fully understood. Components of a shared pathogenesis includes chronic antigen stimulation, JAK-STAT pathway activation and overlap of various cytokines. We will summarize current knowledge on the molecular understanding between T-LGLL and rheumatic disease. There are many potential areas of research to help meet this need and lead to development of targeted therapeutic options.

JAK1/2 Inhibitor Baricitinib Improves Skin Fibrosis and Digital Ulcers in Systemic Sclerosis

Background

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a rare disabling connective tissue disease with few available treatment options. Diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) is associated with high mortality. A previous experiment has shown that JAK2 inhibitor can significantly improve skin fibrosis in bleomycin (BLM)-induced murine model, including reducing dermal thickening and collagen accumulation. We aimed to describe the efficacy of oral JAK1/2 inhibitor baricitinib in SSc patients, especially focusing on skin fibrosis and microvascular manifestations.

Methods

We described the different effects of oral selective JAK1, JAK2, or JAK3 inhibitor treatment in a BLM-induced skin fibrosis mouse model. Furthermore, 10 adult patients with dcSSc were treated with baricitinib. We assessed the changes in modified rodman skin score (mRSS) and digital ulcer net burden at week 12 and 24 from baseline. We also compared the absolute changes in scores on the Scleroderma Health Assessment Questionnaire (SHAQ) and a total score on the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) over a 24-week period.

Results

In the experimental mouse model of skin fibrosis, a JAK1 and JAK2 inhibitor ameliorated skin fibrosis, and a JAK2 inhibitor had the most obvious effect. Treatment with the JAK2 inhibitor also blunted the capillary rarefaction. We demonstrated that skin fibrosis and digital ulcers were significantly relieved in 10 SSc patients treated with baricitinib. The mRSS significantly improved at week 12 from baseline, with a mean change in mRSS of -8.3 [95% confidence interval (CI), -12.03 to -4.574; p = 0.0007] and improved greater at week 24 to -11.67 (95% CI, -16.84 to -6.496; p = 0.0008). Among the four patients with digital ulcers (DU), three were completely healed at week 24, the number of ulcers in another patient was significantly reduced, and there was no patient with new ulcers. Only one adverse event (AE) of herpes zoster was observed.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that selective JAK1 and JAK2 inhibitor alleviates skin fibrosis, and oral JAK1/2 inhibitor baricitinib is a potentially effective treatment for dcSSc patients with skin fibrosis and DU. Baricitinib was well-tolerated by most patients in this study. Additional large clinical trials are needed to confirm our pilot findings.

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry Number

ChiCTR2000030995.

Canonical and noncanonical regulatory roles for JAK2 in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) are two fibrotic interstitial lung diseases that share the usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) injury pattern. Here, we report that RNA sequencing of lung biopsies from patients with RA-ILD and IPF revealed shared and distinct disease-causing pathways. Analysis of transcriptomic data identified a JAK2 related JAK/STAT signaling pathway gene signature that distinguishes RA-UIP from idiopathic UIP. This was further confirmed by immunohistostaining, which identified JAK2 phosphorylation with two distinct forms of activation: a cytoplasmic form of JAK2 activation in most IPF cases (13/20) and a nuclear form of p-JAK2 in RA-UIP (5/5) and a minority of IPF (6/20) cases. Further immunohistostaining identified STAT5A&B as the downstream transcriptional activator for JAK2-mediated canonical signal transduction and phosphorylation of Tyr41 on histone H3 (H3Y41ph) as the downstream epigenetic regulation site for JAK2-mediated noncanonical signal transduction. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) of the RNA-Seq data further supported this shared pathogenic mechanism for the two diseases with the enrichment of STAT5A&B target gene sets as well as the JAK2 regulated H3Y41ph target gene set. This regulatory role of JAK2 in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis was further demonstrated by the attenuation of bleomycin-induced murine pulmonary fibrosis using a JAK2-selective pharmacological inhibitor CEP33779. In vitro studies with normal and IPF derived lung fibroblasts revealed a central role for JAK2 as an essential intermediary molecule in TGF-β-mediated myofibroblast trans-differentiation, proliferation, and extracellular matrix protein production. These observations support a crucial role for JAK2 as an intermediary molecule in fibrotic lung disease development.

Dysregulation of Type 1 Interferon Signaling in Systemic Sclerosis: a Promising Therapeutic Target?

Purpose of review

There are several lines of evidence at the genetic and gene expression levels linking type I interferon (IFN) activation to systemic sclerosis (SSc) pathogenesis. Herein, we summarize the potential role of type I IFN signaling components as therapeutic targets.

Recent findings

All type I IFN cytokines signal through the interferon-α/β receptor (IFNAR). Early phase studies indicate that anifrolumab (a human monoclonal antibody against IFNAR subunit 1) has an acceptable safety profile and can attenuate transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β)-mediated fibrosis in SSc skin, supporting its further clinical development. Janus kinase (JAK) signaling pathways are downstream from IFNAR. Building on their efficacy in hereditary interferonopathies, JAK inhibitors have the potential to block the deleterious IFN and other profibrotic cytokine activation in SSc and are promising drug targets. Moreover, interferon regulator factor (IRF) 5, 7, and 8 have been linked to the profibrotic response in SSc preclinical studies, underscoring their potential as therapeutic targets. Lastly, depletion of plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) attenuates the IFN activation and fibrotic response in vitro and murine model experiments and can be studied as a viable drug target in future clinical studies.

Summary

There is increasing evidence linking the prominent type I IFN activation to the observed exaggerated fibrotic response in SSc. Key components of type I IFN signaling are druggable therapeutic targets that can be pursued in future randomized clinical trials, in order to develop more effective therapeutic options for SSc.

Metabolic orchestration of the wound healing response

Wound healing requires cooperation between different cell types, among which macrophages play a central role. In particular, inflammatory macrophages are engaged in the initial response to wounding, and alternatively activated macrophages are essential for wound closure and the resolution of tissue repair. The links between temporal activation-induced changes in the metabolism of such macrophages and the influence this has on their functional states, along with the realization that metabolites play both intrinsic and extrinsic roles in the cells that produce them, has focused attention on the metabolism of wound healing. Here, we discuss macrophage metabolism during distinct stages of normal healing and its related pathologic processes, such as during cancer and fibrosis. Further, we frame these insights in a broader context of the current understanding of macrophage metabolic reprogramming linked to cellular activation and function. Finally, we discuss parallels between the metabolism of macrophages and fibroblasts, the latter being a key stromal cell type in wound healing, and consider the importance of the metabolic interplay between different cell types in the wound microenvironment.

New promising drugs for the treatment of systemic sclerosis: pathogenic considerations, enhanced classifications, and personalized medicine

Introduction: Systemic sclerosis (SSc), also known as scleroderma, is a complex orphan disease characterized by early inflammatory features, vascular hyper-reactivity, and fibrosis of the skin and internal organs. Although substantial progress has been made in the understanding of the pathogenesis of SSc, there is still no disease-modifying drug that could significantly impact the natural history of the disease.Areas covered: This review discusses the rationale, preclinical evidence, first clinical eevidence,and pending issues concerning new promising therapeutic options that are under investigation in SSc. The search strategy was based on PubMed database and clinical trial.gov, highlighting recent key pathogenic aspects and phase I or II trials of investigational drugs in SSc.Expert opinion: The identification of new molecular entities that potentially impact inflammation and fibrosis may constitute promising options for a disease modifying-agent in SSc. The early combinations of antifibrotic drugs (such as pirfenidone) with immunomodulatory agents (such as mycophenolate mofetil) may also participate to achieve such a goal. A more refined stratification of patients, based on clinical features, molecular signatures, and identification of subpopulations with distinct clinical trajectories, may also improve management strategies in the future.