Under-five mortality according to maternal survival: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Differentiating mortality risk of individual infants and children to improve survival: opportunity for impact

Children are not born equal in their likelihood of survival. The risk of mortality is highest during and shortly after birth. In the immediate postnatal period and beyond, perinatal events, nutrition, infections, family and environmental exposures, and health services largely determine the risk of death. We argue that current public health programmes do not fully acknowledge this spectrum of risk or respond accordingly. As a result, opportunities to improve the care, survival, and development of children in resource-poor settings are overlooked. Children at high risk of mortality are underidentified and commonly treated using guidelines that do not differentiate care according to the magnitude or drivers of those risks. Children at low risk of mortality are often provided with more intensive care than needed, disproportionately using limited health-care resources with minimal or no benefits. Declines in newborn, infant, and child mortality rates globally are slowing, and further reductions are likely to be incrementally more difficult to achieve once simple, high impact interventions have been universally implemented. Currently, 63 countries have rates of neonatal mortality that are off track to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 2030 target of 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths or less, and 54 countries have rates of mortality in children younger than 5 years that are off track to meet the target of 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths or less. If these targets are to be met, a change of approach is needed to address infant and child mortality and for health-care systems to more efficiently address residual mortality.

Pregnancy-Associated Deaths Due to Drugs, Suicide, and Homicide in the United States, 2010-2019

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of pregnancy-associated deaths due to drugs, suicide, and homicide nationwide from 2010 to 2019.

METHODS

Using U.S. death certificate records from 2010 to 2019 for 33 states plus the District of Columbia, we identified pregnancy-associated deaths using the pregnancy checkbox and International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes, calculated pregnancy-associated death ratios, and categorized deaths by cause, timing relative to pregnancy, race or ethnicity, and age.

RESULTS

Of 11,782 pregnancy-associated deaths identified between 2010 and 2019, 11.4% were due to drugs, 5.4% were due to suicide, and 5.4% were due to homicide, whereas 59.3% were due to obstetric causes and the remaining 18.5% were due to other causes. Drug-related deaths, suicide, and homicide accounted for 22.2% of pregnancy-associated deaths. All three causes of death increased over the study period, with drug-related pregnancy-associated deaths increasing 190%. Homicide during pregnancy and drug-related deaths, suicides, and homicide in the late postpartum period (43-365 days) accounted for a larger proportion of all deaths in these time periods than the contribution of these causes to all deaths among females of reproductive age. Pregnant and postpartum people identified as non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native were at highest risk of drug-related and suicide death, and people identified as non-Hispanic Black were at highest risk of homicide.

CONCLUSION

Deaths due to drug use, suicide, and homicide constitute more than one fifth of all deaths during pregnancy and the first year postpartum. Drug-related deaths and homicides have increased over the past decade. Substantial racial and ethnic inequities in these deaths exist.

Incidence of Mortality among Under-Five-Year-Old Children Born to Women Living with HIV and Those Born to Women Not Living with HIV in Botswana: A 5-Year Retrospective Study

Background

Child mortality is a core indicator for child health and wellness. Botswana reported an under-five-year-old children (UFC) mortality rate of 48 deaths per 1000 live births in 2017 against 152 deaths per 1000 live births in 1971. This was a commendable accomplishment. However, given the current country situation whereby 23% of children are born to women living with HIV, the incidence of mortality among UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV and their survival are better health metrics to inform decision making. Nevertheless, such data are still very scarce in Botswana. The study's objective was to estimate the incidence of UFC mortality among children born to women living with and not living with HIV and to compare UFC survival between the two groups.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of mortality among UFC was conducted in Botswana, including all UFC born between January 2014 and June 2018. Data were extracted from the National Under-Five Mortality Audit Committee (NUFMAC) database using a standardized data collection tool. The incidence rate of UFC death was estimated as a function of the duration from birth to death. Survival functions of UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV were plotted and compared using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis.

Results

The overall incidence of UFC death was 4.63/1000 child months (CM) (95% CI 4.36–4.90). The incidence of UFC death among children born to women living with HIV was 6.96/1000 CM (95% CI 6.47–7.45) and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 4.34/1000 CM (95% CI 4.03–4.65). The overall average and standard error (SE) time to event/death for UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV was 54.80 (0.18) months. The mean (SE) time to death for UFC born to women living with HIV was 52.79 (0.41) months and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 55.44 (0.19) months (log-rank X² = 37.59, p < 0.001). Prematurity or low birth weight was the leading cause of UFC death in both groups; but, it was higher in UFC born to women not living with HIV subgroup than their counterparts. Four cases only or 0.5% of the 806 death cases reported by reporting physicians were attributable to HIV-related complications.

Conclusion

Despite the commendable efforts made in reducing UFC death, the incidence of UFC death among UFC born to women living with HIV in Botswana is still higher, and their survival is shorter compared to UFC born to women not living with HIV. Child survival interventions should prioritize UFC born to women living with HIV to improve their survival.

The Crucial Role of Mothers and Siblings in Child Survival: Evidence From 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

A considerable body of research has studied the effects of siblings on child mortality through birth intervals. This research has commonly focused on older siblings. We argue that birth intervals with younger siblings may have equal or stronger effects on child mortality, even during a mother's pregnancy. Moreover, we contend that birth interval effects need to be considered only when siblings are coresident. Using longitudinal data from 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems across sub-Saharan Africa, covering more than 560,000 children, we examine the proximate role of siblings and mothers in child mortality. We find that a birth interval of 24 months or more is advantageous for both older and younger siblings. The effect of a younger sibling on child mortality is more pronounced than that of an older sibling and adds to the effect of an older sibling. Moreover, child mortality is particularly low during a mother's subsequent pregnancy, contrasting the shock resulting from a younger sibling's birth. Further, we find that a mother's or sibling's absence from the household results in a higher risk of mortality, and the death of either reduces child survival up to six months before the death.

Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000-2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival.

FINDINGS

3,618 children died from 2000-2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7-11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000-2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2-34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000-2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3-39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality.

Mega-map of systematic reviews and evidence and gap maps on the interventions to improve child well-being in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Despite a considerable reduction in child mortality, nearly six million children under the age of five die each year. Millions more are poorly nourished and in many parts of the world, the quality of education remains poor. Children are at risk from multiple violations of their rights, including child labour, early marriage, and sexual exploitation. Research plays a crucial role in helping to close the remaining gaps in child well-being, yet the global evidence base for interventions to meet these challenges is mostly weak, scattered and often unusable by policymakers and practitioners. This mega-map encourages the generation and use of rigorous evidence on effective ways to improve child well-being for policy and programming.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this mega-map is to identify, map and provide an overview of the existing evidence synthesis on the interventions aimed at improving child well-being in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Campbell evidence and gap maps (EGMs) are based on a review of existing mapping standards (Saran & White, 2018) which drew in particular of the approach developed by 3ie (Snilstveit, Vojtkova, Bhavsar, & Gaarder, 2013). As defined in the Campbell EGM guidance paper; "Mega-map is a map of evidence synthesis, that is, systematic reviews, and does not include primary studies" (Campbell Collaboration, 2020). The mega-map on child well-being includes studies with participants aged 0-18 years, conducted in LMICs, and published from year 2000 onwards. The search followed strict inclusion criteria for interventions and outcomes in the domains of health, education, social work and welfare, social protection, environmental health, water supply and sanitation (WASH) and governance. Critical appraisal of included systematic reviews was conducted using "A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews"-AMSTAR-2 rating scale (Shea, et al., 2017).

RESULTS

We identified 333 systematic reviews and 23 EGMs. The number of studies being published has increased year-on-year since 2000. However, the distribution of studies across World Bank regions, intervention and outcome categories are uneven. Most systematic reviews examine interventions pertaining to traditional areas of health and education. Systematic reviews in these traditional areas are also the most funded. There is limited evidence in social work and social protection. About 69% (231) of the reviews are assessed to be of low and medium quality. There are evidence gaps with respect to key vulnerable populations, including children with disabilities and those who belong to minority groups.

CONCLUSION

Although an increasing number of systematic reviews addressing child well-being topics are being published, some clear gaps in the evidence remain in terms of quality of reviews and some interventions and outcome areas. The clear gap is the small number of reviews focusing explicitly on either equity or programmes for disadvantaged groups and those who are discriminated against.

Estimation of under-5 child mortality rates in 52 low-migration countries

Reduction of the under-5 mortality rate is a target of the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate under-5 child mortality rates in 52 low-migration countries using population data. The study utilized population data from the US Census Bureau from 1990 to 2015. The method involved first estimating mortality rates for countries with negligible net migration and then applying these rates to countries with matching mortality profiles, where it is reasonable to assume that migration is negligible for children under the age of 5 years. The highest child mortality was concentrated in the African region, followed by Asia and the Western region. However, steady progress in child mortality trends was concentrated in low-income countries. This simple method demonstrated that child mortality has significantly improved in high-income countries, followed by middle- and low-income countries. To reduce the under-5 mortality rates even further in these 52 countries, there is a need to accelerate equitable plans and policies related to child health to promote children's longevity and survival.

Risk of childhood mortality associated with death of a mother in low-and-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Death of a mother at an early age of the child may result in an increased risk of childhood mortality, especially in low-and-middle-income countries. This study aims to synthesize estimates of the association between a mother’s death and the risk of childhood mortality at different age ranges from birth to 18 years in these settings.

Methods

Various MEDLINE databases, EMBASE, and Global Health databases were searched for population-based cohort and case-control studies published from 1980 to 2017. Studies were included if they reported the risk of childhood mortality for children whose mother had died relative to those whose mothers were alive. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to pool effect estimates, stratified by various exposures (child’s age when mother died, time since mother’s death) and outcomes (child’s age at risk of child death).

Results

A total of 62 stratified risk estimates were extracted from 12 original studies. Childhood mortality was associated with child’s age at time of death of a mother and time since a mother’s death. For children whose mother died when they were ≤ 42 days, the relative risk (RR) of dying within the first 1–6 months of the child’s life was 35.5(95%CI:9.7–130.5, p [het] = 0.05) compared to children whose mother did not die; by 6–12 months this risk dropped to 2.8(95%CI:0.7–10.7). For children whose mother died when they were ≤ 1 year, the subsequent RR of dying in that year was 15.9(95%CI:2.2–116.1,p [het] = 0.02), compared to children whose mother lived. For children whose mother died when they were ≤ 5 years of age, the RR of dying before aged 12 was 4.1(95%CI:3.0–5.7),p [het] = 0.83. Mortality was also elevated in specific analysis  among children whose mother died when child was older than 42 days. Overall, for children whose mother died < 6 and 6+ months ago, RRs of dying before reaching adulthood (≤18 years) were 4.7(95%CI:2.6–8.7,p [het] = 0.2) and 2.1(95%CI:1.3–3.4,p [het] = 0.7), respectively, compared to children whose mother lived.

Conclusions

There is evidence of an association between the death of a mother and childhood mortality in lower resource settings. These findings emphasize the critical importance of women in family outcomes and the importance of health care for women during the intrapartum and postpartum periods and throughout their child rearing years.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7316-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effect of timing of mother's death on child survival in a rural HIV hyper-endemic South African population

Background

Maternal mortality remains a tragedy and a key determinant for child survival. There is increasing evidence that the hazard ratio of demising for young children escalates after the death of their mothers, but few studies has been done in rural areas were HIV/AIDS is more prevalent. The aim of this study is to investigate the survival of children who lost their mothers soon or after their births in a rural setup with high HIV prevalence in South Africa.

Methods

This study used a data set from Africa Health Research Institute in rural South Africa.The study population comprised children (0–10 years of age) from 2000 to 2014. We employed a Cox regression modelling approach to estimate greatest temporal hazard of the child after the death of their mothers, accounting for the confounding influence of wealth index of the household and HIV status of the mother.

Results

We found 62,600 live births, and that 2191 children died when they were less than or equal to 10 years old. The mortality rates for < 5 and 5–9 years is 882.25 and 117.75 per 1000 live births respectively, with a maternal mortality rate of 447.3 deaths per 100,000 live births from 2000 to 2004. Child mortality risk was very high in less than 6 weeks after their mother’s death (HR 3.45 [95%CI: 1.3–6.54]), and decreased drastically after 3 years following her death (HR 0.8 [0.2–6.3]). This increased risk was more pronounced among children aged less than 1 month and living in poor households.

Conclusions

Children (less than 10 years) in rural households are at their highest risk of dying within 6 weeks of mother’s death and this risk decreases substantially after the highly vulnerable window. This indicates that the period of mother’s death does play a critical role on the survival of her children.Thus, understanding this risk and its timing in relation to a mother’s death is critical to guide interventions and stress the relevance of assessing the interaction between clinical care and socio-economic programs in addressing the needs of orphans.

Contribution of Maternal Antiretroviral Therapy and Breastfeeding to 24-Month Survival in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Exposed Uninfected Children: An Individual Pooled Analysis of African and Asian Studies

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected pregnant women increasingly receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). Studies suggest HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) children face higher mortality than HIV-unexposed children, but most evidence relates to the pre-ART era, breastfeeding of limited duration, and considerable maternal mortality. Maternal ART and prolonged breastfeeding while on ART may improve survival, although this has not been reliably quantified.

Methods

Individual data on 19 219 HEU children from 21 PMTCT trials/cohorts undertaken from 1995 to 2015 in Africa and Asia were pooled to estimate the association between 24-month mortality and maternal/infant factors, using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted attributable fractions of risks computed using the predict function in the R package "frailtypack" were used to estimate the relative contribution of risk factors to overall mortality.

Results

Cumulative incidence of death was 5.5% (95% confidence interval, 5.1-5.9) by age 24 months. Low birth weight (LBW <2500 g, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR, 2.9), no breastfeeding (aHR, 2.5), and maternal death (aHR, 11.1) were significantly associated with increased mortality. Maternal ART (aHR, 0.5) was significantly associated with lower mortality. At the population level, LBW accounted for 16.2% of 24-month mortality, never breastfeeding for 10.8%, mother not receiving ART for 45.6%, and maternal death for 4.3%; combined, these factors explained 63.6% of deaths by age 24 months.

Conclusions

Survival of HEU children could be substantially improved if public health practices provided all HIV-infected mothers with ART and supported optimal infant feeding and care for LBW neonates.