Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

Estimating the dietary and health impact of implementing front-of-pack nutrition labeling in Canada: A macrosimulation modeling study

Background

Front-of-pack labeling (FOPL) has been identified as a cost-effective policy to promote healthy diets. Health Canada has recently published FOPL regulations that will require food and beverages that meet or exceed set thresholds for sodium, sugars, or saturated fat to display a 'high in' symbol on the front of the package. Although a promising measure, its potential impact on dietary intakes and health have not yet been estimated in Canada.

Objective

This study aims to estimate (1) the potential dietary impact of implementing a mandatory FOPL among Canadian adults; and (2) the number of diet-related non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths that could be averted or delayed due to these estimated dietary changes.

Methods

Baseline and counterfactual usual intakes of sodium, total sugars, saturated fats, and calories were estimated among Canadian adults (n = 11,992) using both available days of 24 h recalls from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate usual intakes, and adjusted for age, sex, misreporting status, weekend/weekday, and sequence of recall. Estimated counterfactual dietary intakes were modeled from reductions observed in experimental and observational studies that examined changes in sodium, sugars, saturated fat, and calorie content of food purchases in the presence of a 'high in' FOPL (four counterfactual scenarios). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl was used to estimate potential health impacts.

Results

Estimated mean dietary reductions were between 31 and 212 mg/day of sodium, 2.3 and 8.7 g/day of total sugars, 0.8 and 3.7 g/day of saturated fats, and 16 and 59 kcal/day of calories. Between 2,183 (95% UI 2,008-2,361) and 8,907 (95% UI 8,095-9,667) deaths due to diet-related NCDs, mostly from cardiovascular diseases (~70%), could potentially be averted or delayed by implementing a 'high in' FOPL in Canada. This estimation represents between 2.4 and 9.6% of the total number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada.

Conclusion

Results suggest that implementing a FOPL could significantly reduce sodium, total sugar, and saturated fat intakes among Canadian adults and subsequently prevent or postpone a substantial number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada. These results provide critical evidence to inform policy decisions related to implementing FOPL in Canada.

Strategies to tackle non-communicable diseases in Afghanistan: A scoping review

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors are the leading cause of death worldwide and contribute to 74.3% of deaths globally in 2019. The burden of NCDs is escalating in Afghanistan. Currently, every seconds, people in Afghanistan are dying of NCDs. Addressing this challenge in Afghanistan needs effective and practical interventions. This study aimed to identify the strategies developed and implemented in countries with low non-communicable premature death. To conduct a scoping review, we followed the six-step Arksey and O'Malley protocol and searched for eligible articles on eight international databases and the gray literature. The study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. The inclusion criteria were English documents and evidence produced up to 30 November 2021 for the control of NCDs. We excluded incomplete texts, duplicates, and dissertations due to lack of access. We used EndNote X9 and MaxQDA software for data management and analysis. We conducted content analysis for this study. A total of 122 documents developed between 1984 and 2021 met the inclusion criteria. We identified 35 strategies from which the most used strategies were related to unhealthy diets and smoking cessation programs. Canada (26.4%), Korea (19.8%), and the United Kingdom (19%) have the most publications on the control and prevention of NCDs among the countries included in the study. Most strategies were implemented over 2 years (41%). This study recommends specific interventions to control and prevent NCDs for the main risk factors of tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, and the main non-communicable diseases such as heart diseases, cancers, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. Afghanistan Ministry of Public Health, the WHO country office, and other involved stakeholders can use the findings of this review to design and implement strategies for controlling and preventing NCDs in Afghanistan. International organizations such as the World Health Organization, United Nations Agencies, the World Bank, and other involving communities should invest in strengthening good health governance in Afghanistan. The Afghan Government should focus on promoting and funding health literacy among the public and self-care to control and prevent NCDs.

Estimating Canadian sodium intakes and the health impact of meeting national and WHO recommended sodium intake levels: A macrosimulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the second leading cause of total deaths in Canada. High blood pressure is the main metabolic risk factor for developing CVDs. It has been well established that excess consumption of sodium adversely affects blood pressure. Canadians' mean sodium intakes are well above recommended levels. Reducing dietary sodium intake through food reformulation has been identified as a cost-effective intervention, however, dietary sodium intake and the potential health impact of meeting recommended sodium intake levels due to food reformulation have not been determined in Canada.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to 1) obtain robust estimates of Canadians' usual sodium intakes, 2) model sodium intakes had foods been reformulated to align with Health Canada's sodium reduction targets, and 3) estimate the number of CVD deaths that could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their mean sodium intake to recommended levels under three scenarios: A) 2,300 mg/d-driven by a reduction of sodium levels in packaged foods to meet Health Canada targets (reformulation); B) 2,000 mg/d to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation; and C) 1,500 mg/d to meet the Adequate Intake recommendation.

METHODS

Foods in the University of Toronto's Food Label Information Program 2017, a Canadian branded food composition database, were linked to nationally representative food intake data from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition to estimate sodium intakes (and intakes had Health Canada's reformulation strategy been fully implemented). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) was used to estimate potential health impact.

RESULTS

Overall, mean sodium intake was 2758 mg/day, varying by age and sex group. Based on 'reformulation' scenario A, mean sodium intakes were reduced by 459 mg/day, to 2299 mg/day. Reducing Canadians' sodium intake to recommended levels under scenarios A, B and C could have averted or delayed 2,176 (95% UI 869-3,687), 3,252 (95% UI 1,380-5,321), and 5,296 (95% UI 2,190-8,311) deaths due to CVDs, respectively, mainly from ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive disease. This represents 3.7%, 5.6%, and 9.1%, respectively, of the total number of CVDs deaths observed in Canada in 2019.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that reducing sodium intake to recommended levels could prevent or postpone a substantial number of CVD deaths in Canada. Reduced sodium intakes could be achieved through reformulation of the Canadian food supply. However, it will require higher compliance from the food industry to achieve Health Canada's voluntary benchmark sodium reduction targets.

Estimating the impact of achieving Turkey's non-communicable disease policy targets: A macro-simulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

The Burden of non-communicable disease (NCDs) has continued to rise globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. In Turkey, NCDs account for 89% of all deaths, with nearly one in five deaths occurring before age 70. This study investigates the number of NCD deaths that could be prevented if Turkey met national and international targets for major modifiable NCD risk factors.

METHODS

Preventable deaths were estimated using the World Health Organization (WHO) 'Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl' (PRIME), by combining: 1) Baseline exposure data for risk factors, referenced from national surveillance and cohort studies; 2) Aetiological associations from published meta-analyses; and 3) Demographic and mortality statistics obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Confidence intervals were estimated using Monte Carlo simulations.

FINDINGS

If Turkey met its NCD risk factor targets for reducing tobacco and salt consumption by 30%, and physical inactivity by 10% in 2017, an estimated 19,859 deaths (95%CI: 12,802 to 26,609) could have been prevented. Approximately two thirds of these preventable deaths were in men, and one in three were in adults below 75 years. A 30% relative reduction in the consumption of alcohol, tobacco, and salt, as well as physical inactivity, would prevent 180 (107 to 259); 4,786 (3,679 to 5,836); 13,112 (5,819 to 19,952); and 7,124 (5,053 to 9,212) deaths, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Among major modifiable NCD risk factors, population-level reductions in salt intake and physical inactivity present the greatest opportunity for reducing NCD mortality in Turkey. These findings can help Turkey prioritise interventions to meet the Sustainable Development Goal target of reducing NCD mortality by one third, by 2030.

A Decade of Food and Nutrition Policy in Portugal (2010–2020)

For the first time, in 2012, the Portuguese Government, through the National Program for the Promotion of Healthy Eating of the Directorate-General for Health, implemented a set of concerted measures for improving the dietary habits, nutritional status and health of the population. Prior to, and since 2007, several epidemiological, social and political circumstances converged, for later enabling the development of a national strategy throughout the decade 2010–2020. This was also supported by specific international guidelines, namely from the World Health Organization and the European Commission. The national strategy objectives have been: (a) To increase the knowledge about the population’s food consumption, its determinants and consequences; (b) to modify the access to certain food items specially in schools, workplaces and public spaces; (c) To inform and empower individuals regarding shopping, preparation and storage of healthy foods, especially amongst those most vulnerable or with a lower income; (d) to identify and promote actions capable of encouraging a healthier diet through the integration of other societal sectors, namely agriculture, sports, environment, education, social security and local authorities; and (e) to better capacitate different professionals who, owing to their roles, may influence nutritional knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. Several actions are described, including the creation of legislation to address these objectives. It is worth noting that one of the biggest challenges to this public policy has been the interventions within the environments where people live. By knowingly being central to food choice determinants, these environmental modifications were also where the stakeholders felt the greatest tensions and difficulties, but also where there are the greatest gains to be made. Solutions to overcome these problems and other perceived difficulties have been proposed here and are considered to be some of the main lessons and achievements throughout this process.

Consumption of ultra-processed foods and non-communicable disease-related nutrient profile in Portuguese adults and elderly (2015-2016): the UPPER project

This study aims to investigate the dietary share of ultra-processed foods and its association with the non-communicable disease (NCD)-related nutrient profile of adult and elderly populations in Portugal. Cross-sectional data from the National Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey (2015-2016) of the Portuguese population were analysed. Dietary intake was assessed by two non-consecutive 24-h recalls, and food items were classified according to the NOVA system. We estimated the percentage of dietary energy provided by each of the NOVA food groups and assessed the NCD-related nutrient profile of the overall diet across quintiles of ultra-processed food consumption. Weighted t tests, besides crude and adjusted linear and Poisson regressions, were performed. Ultra-processed foods contributed to around 24 and 16 % of daily energy intake for adults and elderly, respectively. In both groups, as the consumption of ultra-processed foods increased, the dietary content of free sugars, total fats and saturated fats increased, while the dietary content of protein decreased. In adults, total energy intake, dietary energy density and content of carbohydrates also increased as the consumption of ultra-processed foods increased, while the dietary content of fibre, Na and K decreased. The prevalence of those exceeding the upper limits recommended for free sugars and saturated fats increased by 544 and 153 % in adults and 619 and 60 % in elderly, when comparing the lowest with the highest quintile of ultra-processed food consumption. Such a scenario demands for effective strategies addressing food processing in the Portuguese population to improve their diet quality and prevention against diet-related NCD.

Projected impact of the Portuguese sugar-sweetened beverage tax on obesity incidence across different age groups: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Excessive consumption of sugar has a well-established link with obesity. Preliminary results show that a tax levied on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by the Portuguese government in 2017 led to a drop in sales and reformulation of these products. This study models the impact the market changes triggered by the tax levied on SSBs had on obesity incidence across various age groups in Portugal.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a national market analysis and population-wide modelling study using market data for the years 2014-2018 from the Portuguese Association of Non-Alcoholic Drinks (GlobalData and Nielsen Consumer Panel), dietary data from a national survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), and obesity incidence data from several cohort studies. Dietary energy density from SSBs was calculated by dividing the energy content (kcal/gram) of all SSBs by the total food consumption (in grams). We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation to model the projected impact of the tax-triggered change in sugar consumption on obesity incidence, through both volume reduction and reformulation. Results showed a reduction of 6.6 million litres of SSBs sold per year. Product reformulation led to a decrease in the average energy density of SSBs by 3.1 kcal/100 ml. This is estimated to have prevented around 40-78 cases of obesity per year between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest projected impact observed in adolescents 10 to <18 years old. The model shows that the implementation of this tax allowed for a 4 to 8 times larger projected impact against obesity than would be achieved though reformulation alone. The main limitation of this study is that the model we used includes data from various sources, which can result in biases-despite our efforts to mitigate them-related to the methodological differences between these sources.

CONCLUSIONS

The tax triggered both a reduction in demand and product reformulation. These, together, can reduce obesity levels among frequent consumers of SSBs. Such taxation is an effective population-wide intervention. Reformulation alone, without the decrease in sales, would have had a far smaller effect on obesity incidence in the Portuguese population.