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Yin S, Xu C, Zhang Y, de Boer WF, Mundkur T, Artois J, Velkers FC, Takekawa JY, Si Y, Tian H, Han GZ, Chen Y, Chai H, Cui L, Huang ZYX. Strong and consistent effects of waterbird composition on HPAI H5 occurrences across Europe. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024:e3010. [PMID: 38978282 DOI: 10.1002/eap.3010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 03/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 07/10/2024]
Abstract
Since 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have been dominating the outbreaks across Europe, causing massive deaths among poultry and wild birds. However, the factors shaping these broad-scale outbreak patterns, especially those related to waterbird community composition, remain unclear. In particular, we do not know whether these risk factors differ from those of other H5 clades. Addressing this knowledge gap is important for predicting and preventing future HPAI outbreaks. Using extensive waterbird survey datasets from about 6883 sites, we here explored the effect of waterbird community composition on HPAI H5Nx (clade 2.3.4.4) spatial patterns in the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 epidemics in Europe, and compared it with the 2005/2006 HPAI H5N1 (clade 2.2) epidemic. We showed that HPAI H5 occurrences in wild birds in the three epidemics were strongly associated with very similar waterbird community attributes, which suggested that, in nature, similar interspecific transmission processes operate between the HPAI H5 subtypes or clades. Importantly, community phylogenetic diversity consistently showed a negative association with H5 occurrence in all three epidemics, suggesting a dilution effect of phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, waterbird community variables showed much weaker associations with HPAI H5Nx occurrence in poultry. Our results demonstrate that models based on previous epidemics can predict future HPAI H5 patterns in wild birds, implying that it is important to include waterbird community factors in future HPAI studies to predict outbreaks and improve surveillance activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shenglai Yin
- Department of Zoology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
| | - Chi Xu
- Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yong Zhang
- Department of Zoology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Willem F de Boer
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Jean Artois
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Francisca C Velkers
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Yali Si
- Department of Environmental Biology, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Guan-Zhu Han
- Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yuyang Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Hongliang Chai
- Department of Wildlife Conservation and Management, College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China
| | - Lijuan Cui
- Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
| | - Zheng Y X Huang
- Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
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Stiles P, Grant M, Kim H, Comin A, Svensson M, Nilsson J, Nöremark M. Mapping the risk of introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza to Swedish poultry. Prev Vet Med 2024; 230:106260. [PMID: 38976955 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 06/14/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 07/10/2024]
Abstract
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have resulted in severe economic impact for national governments and poultry industries globally and in Sweden in recent years. Veterinary authorities can enforce prevention measures, e.g. mandatory indoor housing of poultry, in HPAI high-risk areas. The aim of this study was to conduct a spatiotemporal mapping of the risk of introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to Swedish poultry from wild birds, utilising existing data sources. A raster calculation method was used to assess the spatiotemporal risk of introduction of HPAIV to Swedish poultry. The environmental infectious pressure of HPAIV was first calculated in each 5 km by 5 km cell using four risk factors: density of selected species of wild birds, air temperature, presence of agriculture as land cover and presence of HPAI in wild birds based on data from October 2016-September 2021. The relative importance of each risk factor was weighted based on opinion of experts. The estimated environmental infectious pressure was then multiplied with poultry population density to obtain risk values for risk of introduction of HPAIV to poultry. The results showed a large variation in risk both on national and local level. The counties of Skåne and Östergötland particularly stood out regarding environmental infectious pressure, risk of introduction to poultry and detected outbreaks of HPAI. On the other hand, there were counties, identified as having higher risk of introduction to poultry which never experienced any outbreaks. A possible explanation is the variation in poultry production types present in different areas of Sweden. These results indicate that the national and local variation in risk for HPAIV introduction to poultry in Sweden is high, and this would support more targeted compulsory prevention measures than what has previously been employed in Sweden. With the current and evolving HPAI situation in Europe and on the global level, there is a need for continuous updates to the risk map as the virus evolves and circulates in different wild bird species. The study also identified areas of improvement, in relation to data use and data availability, e.g. improvements to poultry registers, inclusion of citizen reported mortality in wild birds, data from standardised wild bird surveys, wild bird migration data as well as results from ongoing risk-factor studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascale Stiles
- Department of Epidemiology, Surveillance and Risk Assessment, National Veterinary Agency, SVA, 751 89 Uppsala, Sweden; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130/3, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Malin Grant
- Department of Epidemiology, Surveillance and Risk Assessment, National Veterinary Agency, SVA, 751 89 Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Clinical Sciences, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7070, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden.
| | - Hyeyoung Kim
- Department of Epidemiology, Surveillance and Risk Assessment, National Veterinary Agency, SVA, 751 89 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Arianna Comin
- Department of Epidemiology, Surveillance and Risk Assessment, National Veterinary Agency, SVA, 751 89 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Mikael Svensson
- SLU Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7070, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Johan Nilsson
- SLU Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7070, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Maria Nöremark
- Department of Epidemiology, Surveillance and Risk Assessment, National Veterinary Agency, SVA, 751 89 Uppsala, Sweden
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Prosser DJ, Kent CM, Sullivan JD, Patyk KA, McCool MJ, Torchetti MK, Lantz K, Mullinax JM. Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface. Sci Rep 2024; 14:14199. [PMID: 38902400 PMCID: PMC11189914 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-64912-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2024] [Accepted: 06/14/2024] [Indexed: 06/22/2024] Open
Abstract
The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diann J Prosser
- U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD, 20708, USA.
| | - Cody M Kent
- Volunteer to the U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD, 20708, USA
- Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
- Department of Biology, Frostburg State University, Frostburg, MD, 21532, USA
| | - Jeffery D Sullivan
- U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD, 20708, USA
| | - Kelly A Patyk
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, Strategy and Policy, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA
| | - Mary-Jane McCool
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, Strategy and Policy, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA
| | - Mia Kim Torchetti
- National Veterinary Services Laboratories, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA, Ames, IA, 50010, USA
| | - Kristina Lantz
- National Veterinary Services Laboratories, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA, Ames, IA, 50010, USA
| | - Jennifer M Mullinax
- Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
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Chen W, Zhang X, Zhao W, Yang L, Wang Z, Bi H. Environmental factors and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the global outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:44175-44185. [PMID: 35128608 PMCID: PMC8818332 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19016-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/29/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has posed a major threat to global public health. Understanding the spatiotemporal outbreak characteristics and environmental factors of H5N1 outbreaks is of great significance for the establishment of effective prevention and control systems. The time and location of H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds officially confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health from 2005 to 2019 were collected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and multidistance spatial agglomeration analysis methods were used to analyze the global outbreak sites of H5N1. Combined with remote sensing data, the correlation between H5N1 outbreaks and environmental factors was analyzed using binary logistic regression methods. We analyzed the correlation between the H5N1 outbreak and environmental factors and finally made a risk prediction for the global H5N1 outbreaks. The results show that the peak of the H5N1 outbreaks occurs in winter and spring. H5N1 outbreaks exhibit aggregation, and a weak aggregation phenomenon is noted on the scale close to 5000 km. Water distance, road distance, railway distance, wind speed, leaf area index (LAI), and specific humidity were protective factors for the outbreak of H5N1, and the odds ratio (OR) were 0.985, 0.989, 0.995, 0.717, 0.832, and 0.935, respectively. Temperature was a risk factor with an OR of 1.073. The significance of these ORs was greater than 95%. The global risk prediction map was obtained. Given that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading globally, the methods and results of this study can provide a reference for studying the spread of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Chen
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China.
| | - Xuepeng Zhang
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Wenwu Zhao
- Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Lan Yang
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Zhe Wang
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Hongru Bi
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
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Śmietanka K, Świętoń E, Wyrostek K, Kozak E, Tarasiuk K, Styś-Fijoł N, Dziadek K, Niemczuk K. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5Nx in Poland in 2020/2021: a Descriptive Epidemiological Study of a Large-scale Epidemic. J Vet Res 2022; 66:1-7. [PMID: 35582478 PMCID: PMC8959680 DOI: 10.2478/jvetres-2022-0017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks caused by the Gs/Gd lineage of H5Nx viruses occur in Poland with increased frequency. The article provides an update on the HPAI situation in the 2020/2021 season and studies the possible factors that caused the exceptionally fast spread of the virus. Material and Methods Samples from poultry and wild birds delivered for HPAI diagnosis were tested by real-time RT-PCR and a representative number of detected viruses were submitted for partial or full-genome characterisation. Information yielded by veterinary inspection was used for descriptive analysis of the epidemiological situation. Results The scale of the epidemic in the 2020/2021 season was unprecedented in terms of duration (November 2020-August 2021), number of outbreaks in poultry (n = 357), wild bird events (n = 92) and total number of affected domestic birds (approximately ~14 million). The major drivers of the virus spread were the harsh winter conditions in February 2020 followed by the introduction of the virus to high-density poultry areas in March 2021. All tested viruses belonged to H5 clade 2.3.4.4b with significant intra-clade diversity and in some cases clearly distinguished clusters. Conclusion The HPAI epidemic in 2020/2021 in Poland struck with unprecedented force. The conventional control measures may have limited effectiveness to break the transmission chain in areas with high concentrations of poultry.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Edyta Świętoń
- Department of Poultry Diseases, 24-100Puławy, Poland
| | | | - Edyta Kozak
- Department of Poultry Diseases, 24-100Puławy, Poland
| | | | | | | | - Krzysztof Niemczuk
- Director General National Veterinary Research Institute, 24-100Puławy, Poland
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