Epidemiological characteristic of acute pancreatitis in Trzebnica district

Application of a Machine Learning Predictive Model for Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute pancreatitis is the main cause of hospitalization for pancreatic disease. Some patients tend to have recurrent episodes after experiencing an episode of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed to construct predictive models for recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP).

METHODS

A total of 531 patients who were hospitalized for the first episode of acute pancreatitis at the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from January 2018 to December 2019 were enrolled in the study. We confirmed whether the patients had a second episode until December 31, 2021, through an electronic medical record system and telephone or WeChat follow-up. Clinical and follow-up data of patients were collected and randomly allocated to the training and test sets at a ratio of 7:3. The training set was used to select the best model, and the selected model was tested with the test set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy, decision curve, and calibration plots were used to assess the efficacy of the models. Shapley additive explanation values were used to explain the model.

RESULTS

Considering multiple indices, XGBoost was the best model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the XGBoost model in the test set were 0.779, 0.763, 0.883, 0.647, 0.341, and 0.922, respectively. According to the Shapley additive explanation values, drinking, smoking, higher levels of triglyceride, and the occurrence of ANC are associated with RAP.

CONCLUSION

The XGBoost model shows good performance in predicting RAP, which may help identify high-risk patients.

Assessment of the course of acute pancreatitis in the light of aetiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The main causes of acute pancreatitis (AP) are biliary disease, alcohol consumption, hypertriglyceridaemia (HTG) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of these aetiological factors on the severity and outcome of AP. Pubmed and Embase were searched between 01/01/2012 and 31/05/2020. Included articles involved adult alcoholic, biliary, HTG- or post-ERCP AP (PAP) patients. Primary outcome was severity, secondary outcomes were organ failures, intensive care unit admission, recurrence rate, pancreatic necrosis, mortality, length of hospital stay, pseudocyst, fluid collection and systematic inflammatory response syndrome. Data were analysed from 127 eligible studies. The risk for non-mild (moderately severe and severe) condition was the highest in HTG-induced AP (HTG-AP) followed by alcoholic AP (AAP), biliary AP (BAP) and PAP. Recurrence rate was significantly lower among BAP vs. HTG-AP or AAP patients (OR = 2.69 and 2.98, 95% CI 1.55–4.65 and 2.22–4.01, respectively). Mortality rate was significantly greater in HTG-AP vs. AAP or BAP (OR = 1.72 and 1.50, 95% CI 1.04–2.84 and 0.96–2.35, respectively), pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in AAP than BAP patients (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.08–2.30). Overall, there is a potential association between aetiology and the development and course of AP. HTG-AP is associated with the highest number of complications. Furthermore, AAP is likely to be more severe than BAP or PAP. Greater emphasis should be placed on determining aetiology on admission.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the aetiology of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Gallstones and alcohol are currently the most frequent aetiologies of acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study is to quantify these aetiologies worldwide, by geographic region and by diagnostic method.

METHODS

A systematic review of observational studies published from January 2006 to October 2017 was performed. The studies provided objective criteria for establishing the diagnosis and aetiology of AP for at least biliary and alcoholic causes. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to assess the frequency of biliary (ABP), alcoholic (AAP) and idiopathic AP (IAP) worldwide and to perform 6 subgroup analyses: 2 compared diagnostic methods for AP aetiology and the other 4 compared geographic regions.

RESULTS

Forty-six studies representing 2,341,007 patients of AP in 36 countries were included. The global estimate of proportion (95% CI) of aetiologies was 42 (39-44)% for ABP, 21 (17-25)% for AAP and 18 (15-22)% for IAP. In studies that used discharge code diagnoses and in those from the US, IAP was the most frequent aetiology. ABP was more frequent in Latin America than in other regions.

CONCLUSION

Gallstones represent the main aetiology of AP globally, and this aetiology is twice as frequent as the second most common aetiology.

Acute pancreatitis: A 7 year retrospective cohort study of the epidemiology, aetiology and outcome from a tertiary hospital in Jamaica

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a significant cause of acute abdominal pain, morbidity and hospitalisation. There was previously a dearth of studies exploring the incidence, risk factors and outcome of AP in the Caribbean region.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All patients with a diagnosis of AP admitted to the University Hospital of the West Indies (UHWI) between 2006 and 2012 were reviewed. The epidemiological profile, risk factors, clinical presentation and outcomes of patients with AP were retrospectively studied.

RESULTS

There were 70 females and 21 males with a median age of 44 years (range 2-86). The median age of males was significantly higher than that of females (p = 0.041). The incidence of AP was 74 per 100,000 admissions per year. Vomiting and abdominal tenderness were noted in the majority of patients. The most common aetiology was biliary disease (71.4%), idiopathic (12%), post-ERCP (6.6%) and alcohol (5.5%). Alcoholic pancreatitis was only seen in males whereas idiopathic and post-ERCP pancreatitis only occurred in females. The mean duration of hospitalisation was 9.51 ± 8.28 days. Disease severity was mild in 61.1%, moderately severe in 26.7%, and severe in 12.2% of patients. Factors associated with more severe disease included overweight/obesity, idiopathic aetiology and post-ERCP status. The case fatality rate was 2%.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of AP was 74/100,000 hospital admissions annually. There was an unusual female preponderance, with biliary pancreatitis being the most common type occurring at an equal frequency among males and females. Only 12.2% of the total cases seen were severe. The case fatality rate was 2%. Local health policy should target timely interventions for biliary pancreatitis and should also address the local factors affecting disease severity.

The incidence and aetiology of acute pancreatitis across Europe

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is increasingly one of the most important acute gastrointestinal conditions throughout much of the world, although incidence and aetiology varies across countries and regions. This study investigated regional and national patterns in the incidence and aetiology of acute pancreatitis, demographic patterns in incidence and trends over time in incidence across Europe.

METHODS

A structured review of acute pancreatitis incidence and aetiology from studies of hospitalised patient case series, cohort studies or other population based studies from 1989 to 2015 and a review of trends in incidence from 1970 to 2015 across all 51 European states.

RESULTS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis was reported from 17 countries across Europe and ranged from 4.6 to 100 per 100 000 population. Incidence was usually highest in eastern or northern Europe, although reported rates often varied according to case ascertainment criteria. Of 20 studies that reported on trends in incidence, all but three show percentage increases over time (overall median increase = 3.4% per annum; range = -0.4%-73%). The highest ratios of gallstone to alcohol aetiologies were identified in southern Europe (Greece, Turkey, Italy and Croatia) with lowest ratios mainly in eastern Europe (Latvia, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Russia and Lithuania).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis varies across Europe. Gallstone is the dominant aetiology in southern Europe and alcohol in eastern Europe with intermediate ratios in northern and western Europe. Acute pancreatitis continues to increase throughout most of Europe.

Epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of acute pancreatitis: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is a common acute surgical presentation in Western Society. The causes and pattern of pancreatitis has not been previously documented for Western Sydney. As Western Sydney contains many areas of low socio-economic status with an expected high level of alcohol abuse, it was hypothesised that alcoholic pancreatitis would be more prevalent in this population. The aims of this study were to determine the epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients presenting with acute pancreatitis to four tertiary hospitals over a four-year period was undertaken.

RESULTS

932 patients presented with acute pancreatitis with a median age of 50 years (range 16-95); 470 (50.4%) were female. Almost half had gallstones (40%), 25.6% idiopathic, 22% alcohol induced and 3.9% post ERCP. 69 (7.4%) of patients were admitted to ICU/HDU, with a median length of stay in ICU was 6 days (range 1-106). 85 (11.1%) patients had severe pancreatitis (score ≥ 3). Mortality in this study was 1% (9).

CONCLUSION

The majority of patients with acute pancreatitis in Western Sydney present with mild disease and have a low risk of morbidity or mortality. The ratio of gallstone to alcohol aetiology was 2:1. Idiopathic pancreatitis is responsible for more cases than expected.

The angle of pancreaticobiliary junction correlates with acute pancreatitis: a magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography study

OBJECTIVE

To study the correlation between the angle of the pancreaticobiliary junction (APJ) and the prevalence of acute pancreatitis using magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From February 2014 to October 2014, thirty two subjects with normal pancreas (group A) and 40 patients with acute pancreatitis (group B) who underwent MRCP were enrolled into our study. The type of biliary duct and main pancreatic duct joining the duodenal wall was reviewed and divided into V, B-P and P-B type. The V type is the pancreatic duct and biliary duct joining the duodenal wall without a common channel; the B-P type is the biliary duct draining into the pancreatic duct and forming a common channel; and the P-B type is the pancreatic duct draining into the biliary duct and forming a common channel. APJ was measured on MRCP. The correlation between the APJ and the prevalence of acute pancreatitis was analyzed.

RESULTS

The APJ in group A was smaller than in group B (51.45°±13.51° vs. 65.76°±15.61°, P<0.05). According to the type of biliary duct and main pancreatic duct joining the duodenal wall, the prevalence of acute pancreatitis in the V type and in the B-P type was higher than in the P-B type (12/17 vs. 10/29, or 18/26 vs. 10/29, respectively, all P<0.05), whereas there were no significant difference for the prevalence of acute pancreatitis between the V type and B-P type (P>0.05). The APJ were 59.32°±20.04°, 60.22°±11.06°, 57.13°±17.27°, respectively in V type, B-P type and P-B type joining of main pancreatic duct (P>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

A larger APJ is related to a higher prevalence of acute pancreatitis.

Retrospective analysis of clinical problems concerning acute pancreatitis in one treatment center

Introduction

Severe acute pancreatitis is still a difficult clinical problem, it is a challenge for medical teams, which should include the strategy of personalized medicine. In clinical observations, among patients with the fulminating course of acute pancreatitis developed during the first hours leading to irreversible multiorgan failure and death.

Aim

To evaluate the frequency of occurrence and analyze the progression and treatment of severe acute pancreatitis (AP) in patients hospitalized during the years 2004–2010 at the Clinical Surgery Ward.

Material and methods

One thousand and fifty patients treated for AP were included in the study; 97 patients with severe AP were subjected to a detailed clinical analysis.

Results

The average age of the patients was 52.8 years. Relapses occurred in 14.9% of patients. The severe form of acute pancreatitis was diagnosed in 97 patients, which accounts for 9.2% of all the illnesses, and occurred significantly more often in male patients (p < 0.01). The most frequent etiological factors were cholelithiasis (46.4%), and idiopathic pancreatitis (27.8%); alcohol consumption was responsible for 22.7% of the cases; the occurrence of both a bile-derivative and alcoholic factor was found in 3.1% of the cases. A worsening clinical state resulted in laparotomy in 26 patients (26.8%), and re-laparotomy in 5 patients. Necrosectomy was performed on 15 patients, of whom 33.3% died due to complications. The total mortality in severe AP was 38.1%. The average age of the deceased was 66.5. Early deaths within 14 days were noted in 78.4% of patients (n = 29) who died due to severe AP.

Conclusions

Severe AP in spite of implementing modern diagnosis and treatment methods is still associated with a high risk of death. Constant clinical observation and use of available prognostic scales are essential in improving AP prognoses.

The incidence of acute pancreatitis: impact of social deprivation, alcohol consumption, seasonal and demographic factors

BACKGROUND

The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased sharply in many European countries and the USA in recent years.

AIM

To establish trends in incidence and mortality for acute pancreatitis in Wales, UK, and to assess how incidence may be linked to factors including social deprivation, seasonal effects and alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Use of record linked inpatient, mortality and primary care data for 10,589 hospitalised cases of acute pancreatitis between 1999 and 2010.

RESULTS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis was 30.0 per 100,000 population overall, mortality was 6.4% at 60 days. Incidence increased significantly from 27.6 per 100,000 in 1999 to 36.4 in 2010 (average annual increase = 2.7% per year), there was little trend in mortality (0.2% average annual reduction). The largest increases in incidence were among women aged <35 years (7.9% per year) and men aged 35-44 (5.7%) and 45-54 (5.3%). Incidence was 1.9 times higher among the most deprived quintile of patients compared with the most affluent (3.9 times higher for alcoholic acute pancreatitis and 1.5 for gallstone acute pancreatitis). Acute pancreatitis was increased significantly during the Christmas and New Year weeks by 48% (95% CI = 24-77%) for alcoholic aetiology, but not for gallstone aetiology (9%). Alcoholic admissions were increased with higher consumption of spirits and beer, but not wine.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows an elevated rate of alcoholic acute pancreatitis during the Christmas and New Year period. Acute pancreatitis continues to rise, most rapidly for young women, while alcoholic acute pancreatitis is linked strongly with social deprivation.