Reduction in undiagnosed HIV infection in the European Union/European Economic Area, 2012 to 2016

Estimating the potential to prevent locally acquired HIV infections in a UNAIDS Fast-Track City, Amsterdam

Background:

More than 300 cities including the city of Amsterdam in the Netherlands have joined the UNAIDS Fast-Track Cities initiative, committing to accelerate their HIV response and end the AIDS epidemic in cities by 2030. To support this commitment, we aimed to estimate the number and proportion of Amsterdam HIV infections that originated within the city, from Amsterdam residents. We also aimed to estimate the proportion of recent HIV infections during the 5-year period 2014–2018 in Amsterdam that remained undiagnosed.

Methods:

We located diagnosed HIV infections in Amsterdam using postcode data (PC4) at time of registration in the ATHENA observational HIV cohort, and used HIV sequence data to reconstruct phylogeographically distinct, partially observed Amsterdam transmission chains. Individual-level infection times were estimated from biomarker data, and used to date the phylogenetically observed transmission chains as well as to estimate undiagnosed proportions among recent infections. A Bayesian Negative Binomial branching process model was used to estimate the number, size, and growth of the unobserved Amsterdam transmission chains from the partially observed phylogenetic data.

Results:

Between 1 January 2014 and 1 May 2019, there were 846 HIV diagnoses in Amsterdam residents, of whom 516 (61%) were estimated to have been infected in 2014–2018. The rate of new Amsterdam diagnoses since 2014 (104 per 100,000) remained higher than the national rates excluding Amsterdam (24 per 100,000), and in this sense Amsterdam remained a HIV hotspot in the Netherlands. An estimated 14% [12–16%] of infections in Amsterdan MSM in 2014–2018 remained undiagnosed by 1 May 2019, and 41% [35–48%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with variation by region of birth. An estimated 67% [60–74%] of Amsterdam MSM infections in 2014–2018 had an Amsterdam resident as source, and 56% [41–70%] in Amsterdam heterosexuals, with heterogeneity by region of birth. Of the locally acquired infections, an estimated 43% [37–49%] were in foreign-born MSM, 41% [35–47%] in Dutch-born MSM, 10% [6–18%] in foreign-born heterosexuals, and 5% [2–9%] in Dutch-born heterosexuals. We estimate the majority of Amsterdam MSM infections in 2014–2018 originated in transmission chains that pre-existed by 2014.

Conclusions:

This combined phylogenetic, epidemiologic, and modelling analysis in the UNAIDS Fast-Track City Amsterdam indicates that there remains considerable potential to prevent HIV infections among Amsterdam residents through city-level interventions. The burden of locally acquired infection remains concentrated in MSM, and both Dutch-born and foreign-born MSM would likely benefit most from intensified city-level interventions.

Funding:

This study received funding as part of the H-TEAM initiative from Aidsfonds (project number P29701). The H-TEAM initiative is being supported by Aidsfonds (grant number: 2013169, P29701, P60803), Stichting Amsterdam Dinner Foundation, Bristol-Myers Squibb International Corp. (study number: AI424-541), Gilead Sciences Europe Ltd (grant number: PA-HIV-PREP-16-0024), Gilead Sciences (protocol numbers: CO-NL-276-4222, CO-US-276-1712, CO-NL-985-6195), and M.A.C AIDS Fund.

Late Presenters of HIV Infection in an HIV Unit of a Tertiary University Hospital in a Rural Region of Greece

A significant progress has been made over the years in the prognosis and treatment of patients with early diagnosis of HIV infection. However, late presentation of a large number of patients remains a serious public health problem. The aim of our study is to highlight the dimensions of the problem by evaluating the data from the HIV Unit of Alexandroupolis, a rural region with population heterogeneity and a strategic position between West and East, Europe, and Asia. This was a retrospective study, including 107 patients diagnosed with HIV infection in our unit from 2010 to 2018. Late presenters (LP) were defined as patients diagnosed with a CD4 cell count <350/mm³ or an AIDS-defining condition regardless of CD4 cell count. The proportion of patients diagnosed late was 49.5%. The majority were males in the age group 31-40 years (41.5%). Men who had sex with men were 37.8%. Among LP, 34% were at Center for Disease Prevention and Control stage C3. The most common AIDS-defining condition observed was Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia (15.1%), followed by esophageal candidiasis (7.5%) and cryptococcal meningitis (3.8%). In addition, immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome was documented (3.8%). A high percentage of patients were also coinfected with hepatitis B (22.6%) virus. The notably high percentage of LP in our unit demonstrates that late presentation remains a challenge for public health. Further efforts must be made to ensure an early diagnosis of HIV infection. The early initiation of antiretroviral therapy is vital to reduce viral load to undetectable levels and the risk of HIV transmission.

HIV testing strategies employed in health care settings in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA): evidence from a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Despite the availability of HIV testing guidelines to facilitate prompt diagnosis, late HIV diagnosis remains high across Europe. The study synthesizes recent evidence on HIV testing strategies adopted in health care settings in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA).

METHODS

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed and systematic searches were run in five databases (2010-2017) to identify studies describing HIV testing interventions in health care settings in the EU/EEA. The grey literature was searched for unpublished studies (2014-2017). Two reviewers independently performed study selection, data extraction and critical appraisal.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty intervention and/or feasibility studies on HIV testing in health care settings were identified. Interventions included testing provision (n = 94), campaigns (n = 14) and education and training for staff and patients (n = 20). HIV test coverage achieved through testing provision varied: 2.9-94% in primary care compared to 3.9-66% in emergency departments. HIV test positivity was lower in emergency departments (0-1.3%) and antenatal services (0-0.05%) than in other hospital departments (e.g. inpatients: 0-5.3%). Indicator condition testing programmes increased HIV test coverage from 3.9-72% before to 12-85% after their implementation, with most studies reporting a 10-20% increase. There were 51 feasibility and/or acceptability studies that demonstrated that HIV testing interventions were generally acceptable to patients and providers in health care settings (e.g. general practitioner testing acceptable: 77-93%).

CONCLUSIONS

This review has identified several strategies that could be adopted to achieve high HIV testing coverage across a variety of health care settings and populations in the EU/EEA. Very few studies compared the intervention under investigation to a baseline, but, where this was assessed, data suggested increases in testing.

Estimation of the Number of HIV Infections and Time to Diagnosis in the Korea

BACKGROUND

Statistical data of undiagnosed people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) are of great importance to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection control. This study estimated the total number of PLHIV using nationwide claims data.

METHODS

This study used data of the incident HIV cases identified by the National Health Insurance System between 2009 and 2015. The number of patients with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) was identified by diagnoses or prescription records. The estimated number of PLHIV and the time to diagnosis were calculated from the incident numbers of HIV and AIDS cases using the HIV Modeling Tool of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.

RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2015, a total of 7,033 PLHIV and 2,899 AIDS patients were diagnosed. In 2009, the number of incident HIV cases was 873 (460 AIDS patients), increasing to 995 (337 AIDS patients) in 2015. Besides, the estimated number of prevalent cases was 10,753 in 2009, compared to 14,880 in 2015. Patients visiting health facilities accounted for 42.9% (4,616/10,753) in 2009 and 64.1% (9,544/14,880) in 2015. In 2009, there were 8,363 (77.8%) undiagnosed HIV cases, experiencing a decline to 6,215 (41.8%) in 2015. It took a mean of 6.96 years to diagnose after HIV infection.

CONCLUSION

This study estimates the total burden of HIV infection in Korea for the first time using an internationally recognized HIV modeling tool. Claims data can be used to estimate the number of undiagnosed cases by identifying the total number of PLHIV and AIDS patients visiting health facilities.

Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrum's case surveillance and vital registration tool

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15–49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with case surveillance and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or AIDS-related deaths. This article describes development and application of the case surveillance and vital registration (CSAVR) tool for the 2019 estimate round.

Methods:

Incidence in CSAVR is either estimated directly using single logistic, double logistic, or spline functions, or indirectly via the ‘r-logistic’ model, which represents the (log-transformed) per-capita transmission rate using a logistic function. The propensity to get diagnosed is assumed to be monotonic, following a Gamma cumulative distribution function and proportional to mortality as a function of time since infection. Model parameters are estimated from a combination of historical surveillance data on newly reported HIV cases, mean CD4⁺ at HIV diagnosis and estimates of AIDS-related deaths from vital registration systems. Bayesian calibration is used to identify the best fitting incidence trend and uncertainty bounds.

Results:

We used CSAVR to estimate HIV incidence, number of new diagnoses, mean CD4⁺ at diagnosis and the proportion undiagnosed in 31 European, Latin American, Middle Eastern, and Asian-Pacific countries. The spline model appeared to provide the best fit in most countries (45%), followed by the r-logistic (25%), double logistic (25%), and single logistic models. The proportion of HIV-positive people who knew their status increased from about 0.31 [interquartile range (IQR): 0.10–0.45] in 1990 to about 0.77 (IQR: 0.50–0.89) in 2017. The mean CD4⁺ at diagnosis appeared to be stable, at around 410 cells/μl (IQR: 224–567) in 1990 and 373 cells/μl (IQR: 174–475) by 2017.

Conclusion:

Robust case surveillance and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries while HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, CSAVR offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating and projecting trends in both HIV incidence and knowledge of HIV status.

Different transmission routes and the risk of advanced HIV disease: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND

A substantial proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) present for care with advanced HIV disease (AHD), which may result in difficulty reaching the "90-90-90" target to end AIDS in 2030. We assessed the risk of AHD for different transmission routes to summarize the evidence for priority prevention strategies for key populations.

METHODS

Observational studies published before September 10th, 2019 in the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Chinese electronic databases were analysed. The outcomes of interest were the number of PLHIV and AHD patients and their associated transmission routes. We assessed the risk of AHD among the different transmission routes using the multi-armed network meta-analysis based on the Bayesian method. The associations between AHD and regional policies for sex work and compulsory drug treatment were estimated using ecological linear regression.

FINDINGS

One hundred and one articles were included, covering 129,780 PLHIV with 478,830 patients who developed AHD. The network analysis revealed that among PLHIV, heterosexual contact was associated with the highest risk of AHD, followed by injection drug use (odds ratio [OR]=0•56, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0•47-0•68), and men who have sex with men (OR=0•54, 95% CrI 0•46-0•63). Regions that criminalized sex work and compulsory drug treatment had higher risks for AHD than those that did not.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest HC is at a higher risk of AHD compared to IDU and MSM. This justifies the need to expand prevention campaigns and maintain efforts to increase HIV testing in the heterosexual population.

Transmission patterns of HIV-1 non-R5 strains in Poland

HIV-1 env sequencing enables predictions of viral coreceptor tropism and phylogenetic investigations of transmission events. The aim of the study was to estimate the contribution of non-R5 strains to the viral spread in Poland. Partial proviral env sequences were retrieved from baseline blood samples of patients with newly diagnosed HIV-1 infection between 2008-2014, including 46 patients with recent HIV-1 infection (RHI), and 246 individuals with long-term infection (LTHI). These sequences were subjected to the genotypic coreceptor tropism predictions and phylogenetic analyses to identify transmission clusters. Overall, 27 clusters with 57 sequences (19.5%) were detected, including 15 sequences (26.3%) from patients with RHI. The proportion of non-R5 strains among all study participants was 23.3% (68/292), and was comparable between patients with RHI and LTHI (11/46, 23.9% vs 57/246, 23.2%; p = 1.000). All 11 patients with non-R5 strains and RHI were men having sex with men (MSM). Among these patients, 4 had viral sequences grouped within phylogenetic cluster with another sequence of non-R5 strain obtained from patient with LTHI, indicating potential acquisition of non-R5 HIV-1 for at least 4/46 (8.7%) patients with RHI. We were unable to confirm the contribution of patients with RHI to the forward transmission of non-R5 strains, but a relatively high proportion of non-R5 strains among them deserves attention due to the limited susceptibility to CCR5 antagonists.

Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: a statistical modeling study

Background

Epidemiological surveillance of HIV infection in Japan involves two technical problems for directly applying a classical backcalculation method, i.e., (i) all AIDS cases are not counted over time and (ii) people diagnosed with HIV have received antiretroviral therapy, extending the incubation period. The present study aimed to address these issues and estimate the HIV incidence and the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections, using a simple statistical model.

Methods

From among Japanese nationals, yearly incidence data of HIV diagnoses and patients with AIDS who had not previously been diagnosed as HIV positive, from 1985 to 2017, were analyzed. Using the McKendrick partial differential equation, general convolution-like equations were derived, allowing estimation of the HIV incidence and the time-dependent rate of diagnosis. A likelihood-based approach was used to obtain parameter estimates.

Results

Assuming that the median incubation period was 10.0 years, the cumulative number of HIV infections was estimated to be 29,613 (95% confidence interval (CI): 29,059, 30,167) by the end of 2017, and the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections was estimated at 80.3% (95% CI [78.7%–82.0%]). Allowing the median incubation period to range from 7.5 to 12.3 years, the estimate of the proportion diagnosed can vary from 77% to 84%.

Discussion

The proportion of diagnosed HIV infections appears to have not yet reached 90% among Japanese nationals. Compared with the peak incidence from 2005–2008, new HIV infections have clearly been in a declining trend; however, there are still more than 1,000 new HIV infections per year in Japan. To increase the diagnosed proportion of HIV infections, it is critical to identify people who have difficulty accessing consultation, testing, and care, and to explore heterogeneous patterns of infection.

Inequalities in HIV testing uptake and needs among men who have sex with men living in Ireland: findings from an internet survey

OBJECTIVES

HIV disproportionately affects men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ireland. The aim of this study was to improve understanding of HIV testing among MSM living in Ireland to inform prevention and testing initiatives.

METHODS

We used data from the MSM Internet Survey Ireland 2015 (MISI 2015), a cross-sectional survey of MSM living in Ireland. We identified factors associated with never having tested for HIV using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. We identified preferred sites for future tests and examined the relationships between unmet HIV testing needs and socio-demographic groups.

RESULTS

More than one-third (n = 1006; 36%) of MSM had never tested for HIV. Multivariable logistic regression showed that untested men were more likely to be aged 18-24 years, live outside Dublin, have a lower level of education, be born in Ireland, identify as bisexual, be out to fewer people, and not have had sex with a man in the previous 12 months. The same groups of men also had the least knowledge about HIV and were least confident in accessing an HIV test. Men who had never tested for HIV were more likely to prefer testing by their general practitioner (GP) or using home sampling HIV kits and less likely to prefer testing in a sexual health clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV prevention and testing programmes for MSM should be targeted towards younger men, those living outside Dublin and those with lower levels of education. We recommend increased promotion and availability of free HIV testing services in a range of clinical and nonclinical settings (including self-sampling and home testing).

HIV testing within general practices in Europe: a mixed-methods systematic review

BACKGROUND

Late diagnosis of HIV infection remains a key challenge in Europe. It is acknowledged that general practitioners (GPs) may contribute greatly to early case finding, yet there is evidence that many diagnostic opportunities are being missed. To further promote HIV testing in primary care and to increase the utility of available research, the existing evidence has been synthesised in a systematic review adhering to the PRISMA guidelines.

METHODS

The databases PubMed, Scopus and Embase were searched for the period 2006-2017. Two authors judged independently on the eligibility of studies. Through a mixed-methods systematic review of 29 studies, we provide a description of HIV testing in general practices in Europe, including barriers and facilitators.

RESULTS

The findings of the study show that although various approaches to target patients are used by GPs, most tests are still carried out based on the patient's request. Several barriers obstruct HIV testing in general practice. Included are a lack of communication skills on sexual health, lack of knowledge about HIV testing recommendations and epidemic specificities, difficulties with using the complete list of clinical HIV indicator diseases and lack of experience in delivering and communicating test results. The findings also suggest that the provision of specific training, practical tools and promotion programmes has an impact on the testing performance of GPs.

CONCLUSIONS

GPs could have an increased role in provider-initiated HIV-testing for early case finding. To achieve this objective, solutions to the reported barriers should be identified and testing criteria adapted to primary healthcare defined. Providing guidance and training to better identify priority groups for HIV testing, as well as information on the HIV epidemic's characteristics, will be fundamental to increasing awareness and testing by GPs.