COVID-19 outbreak among French firefighters, Marseille, France, 2020

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023.

OBJECTIVE

We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels.

METHODS

In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.

The allostatic load model: a framework to understand the cumulative multi-system impact of work-related psychosocial stress exposure among firefighters

Firefighting is recognised as a profession where health and well-being can be affected by a variety of occupational factors, such as physical, thermal, and chemical stressors. Along with the risks intuitively associated with the fire service, however, psychosocial stress has begun to attract attention as another variable deserving of consideration. Indeed, long-term exposure to work-related psychosocial stress has been linked with poor health outcomes in many workers; however, despite this association, very little has been done to examine how such stressors become biologically embedded in firefighters. To help facilitate research into how psychosocial stress can affect health-related outcomes in the fire service, we propose a framework centered on the notion of allostatic load. First, we reviewed the occupational characteristics that may generate psychosocial stress within firefighters before introducing allostatic load (that is, dysregulation across various physiological systems caused by the need to manage ongoing stressors). Next, we provided a summary of how allostatic load can be measured and touched on the framework's utility for studying the cumulative effects of work-related stress on firefighter health. After this, factors that may influence the steps leading from stress exposure to health outcomes were discussed; in particular, we commented upon how research in this area should consider specific non-modifiable (age, sex, and ethnicity) and modifiable (psychosocial resources and behavioural habits) factors. Finally, we presented methodological barriers and opportunities that may arise when using the allostatic load framework with this professional group. By introducing the framework, we hope to provide a tool that may be used by those interested in stress-health research in firefighters to build the evidence needed to inform primary prevention measures.

Investigation of a COVID-19 outbreak on the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, March to April 2020: a retrospective cohort study

Background

SARS-CoV-2 emergence was a threat for armed forces. A COVID-19 outbreak occurred on the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle from mid-March to mid-April 2020.

Aim

To understand how the virus was introduced, circulated then stopped circulation, risk factors for infection and severity, and effectiveness of preventive measures.

Methods

We considered the entire crew as a cohort and collected personal, clinical, biological, and epidemiological data. We performed viral genome sequencing and searched for SARS-CoV-2 in the environment.

Results

The attack rate was 65% (1,148/1,767); 1,568 (89%) were included. The male:female ratio was 6.9, and median age was 29 years (IQR: 24–36). We examined four clinical profiles: asymptomatic (13.0%), non-specific symptomatic (8.1%), specific symptomatic (76.3%), and severe (i.e. requiring oxygen therapy, 2.6%). Active smoking was not associated with severe COVID-19; age and obesity were risk factors. The instantaneous reproduction rate (R_t) and viral sequencing suggested several introductions of the virus with 4 of 5 introduced strains from within France, with an acceleration of R_t when lifting preventive measures. Physical distancing prevented infection (adjusted OR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). Transmission may have stopped when the proportion of infected personnel was large enough to prevent circulation (65%; 95% CI: 62–68).

Conclusion

Non-specific clinical pictures of COVID-19 delayed detection of the outbreak. The lack of an isolation ward made it difficult to manage transmission; the outbreak spread until a protective threshold was reached. Physical distancing was effective when applied. Early surveillance with adapted prevention measures should prevent such an outbreak.