Scientific Opinion on the development of a risk ranking framework on biological hazards

Persistence of microbiological hazards in food and feed production and processing environments

Listeria monocytogenes (in the meat, fish and seafood, dairy and fruit and vegetable sectors), Salmonella enterica (in the feed, meat, egg and low moisture food sectors) and Cronobacter sakazakii (in the low moisture food sector) were identified as the bacterial food safety hazards most relevant to public health that are associated with persistence in the food and feed processing environment (FFPE). There is a wide range of subtypes of these hazards involved in persistence in the FFPE. While some specific subtypes are more commonly reported as persistent, it is currently not possible to identify universal markers (i.e. genetic determinants) for this trait. Common risk factors for persistence in the FFPE are inadequate zoning and hygiene barriers; lack of hygienic design of equipment and machines; and inadequate cleaning and disinfection. A well-designed environmental sampling and testing programme is the most effective strategy to identify contamination sources and detect potentially persistent hazards. The establishment of hygienic barriers and measures within the food safety management system, during implementation of hazard analysis and critical control points, is key to prevent and/or control bacterial persistence in the FFPE. Once persistence is suspected in a plant, a 'seek-and-destroy' approach is frequently recommended, including intensified monitoring, the introduction of control measures and the continuation of the intensified monitoring. Successful actions triggered by persistence of L. monocytogenes are described, as well as interventions with direct bactericidal activity. These interventions could be efficient if properly validated, correctly applied and verified under industrial conditions. Perspectives are provided for performing a risk assessment for relevant combinations of hazard and food sector to assess the relative public health risk that can be associated with persistence, based on bottom-up and top-down approaches. Knowledge gaps related to bacterial food safety hazards associated with persistence in the FFPE and priorities for future research are provided.

Trends in Occupational Infectious Diseases in South Korea and Classification of Industries According to the Risk of Biological Hazards Using K-Means Clustering

Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary to identify these risks and determine whether the current level of management is appropriate to respond to the risk of biological hazards depending on the occupation. In this study, the incidence and fatality rates of occupational diseases were calculated using industrial accident statistics of South Korea, and trends by year using joinpoint regression and relative risk by industry using k-means clustering were evaluated for infectious diseases. We found that infectious diseases had the third highest incidence and fourth highest fatalities among all occupational diseases. In the incidence rate, joinpoints appeared in 2009 and 2018, and the annual percent change changed to 7.79, -16.63, and 82.11. The fatality rate showed a consistent increase with an annual percent change of 4.37, but it was not significant. Industries were classified into five groups according to risk, and the legal control measures of certain industries were not sufficient. Follow-up studies are needed to rectify the structural limitations of industrial accident statistics.

A common approach for ranking of microbiological and chemical hazards in foods based on risk assessment - useful but is it possible?

This article compares and contrasts microbial and chemical risk assessment methodologies in order to evaluate the potential for a common framework for ranking of risk of chemical and microbiological hazards, and developments needed for such a framework. An overview of microbial (MRA) and chemical (CRA) risk assessment is presented and important differences are highlighted. Two microbiological and two chemical hazard-food combinations were ranked based on both a margin of exposure and a risk assessment approach. The comparisons illustrated that it is possible to rank chemical and microbiological hazard-food combinations with traditional approaches from each domain and indicated that the rank order but not the absolute measures is similar using either approach. Including severity in the assessment using DALY reduced differences between hazards and affected the outcome more than which approach was used. Ranking frameworks should include assessment of uncertainty as an integral part of the ranking, and be based on assessment of risk, not safety, and expressed in a common health metric such as disease burden. Necessary simplifications to address data gaps can involve the use of default scenarios. Challenges include comparisons of case-based vs. non-case-based health-endpoints, e.g. biomarker concentration, and integration of the severity of health effects into ranking.

Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment

The EUFORA fellowship programme ‘Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment’ was proposed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), a British governmental institution responsible for safeguarding animal and plant health in the UK. The working programme, which was organised into four different modules, covered a wide range of aspects related to risk assessment including identification of emerging risks, risk prioritisation methods, scanning surveillance, food production exposure assessment and import risk assessment of animal and human infectious diseases. Over the course of the year, the Fellow had the opportunity to work for international projects with experts in these disciplines. This allowed for significant opportunities to ‘learn‐by‐doing’ the methods and the techniques that are employed to assess animal health and food safety risks. Moreover, he consolidated his knowledge by attending several training courses and academic lessons, submitting scientific papers to peer‐reviewed journals and conferences, giving presentations and using modelling software.

Best practices in ranking communicable disease threats: a literature review, 2015

The threat of serious, cross-border communicable disease outbreaks in Europe poses a significant challenge to public health and emergency preparedness because the relative likelihood of these threats and the pathogens involved are constantly shifting in response to a range of changing disease drivers. To inform strategic planning by enabling effective resource allocation to manage the consequences of communicable disease outbreaks, it is useful to be able to rank and prioritise pathogens. This paper reports on a literature review which identifies and evaluates the range of methods used for risk ranking. Searches were performed across biomedical and grey literature databases, supplemented by reference harvesting and citation tracking. Studies were selected using transparent inclusion criteria and underwent quality appraisal using a bespoke checklist based on the AGREE II criteria. Seventeen studies were included in the review, covering five methodologies. A narrative analysis of the selected studies suggests that no single methodology was superior. However, many of the methods shared common components, around which a 'best-practice' framework was formulated. This approach is intended to help inform decision makers' choice of an appropriate risk-ranking study design.

Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain

Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers.

Risk assessment and risk management for safe foods: Assessment needs inclusion of variability and uncertainty, management needs discrete decisions

The introduction of relevant food safety changes in legislation, like time-temperature criteria for pasteurisation and sterilisation, microbiological criteria, HACCP and FSOs, generally took several decades. All these approaches have helped to define specific targets or systems to improve the management of food safety. More and more the measures could be related to specific efficiency in public health protection. With the use of quantitative risk assessment, theoretically the effect of all interventions on the final risk can be determined, which can help to design the appropriate controls in the food safety management system. In such an assessment in practice, however results have understandably large variability and also uncertainty. There is large variability and uncertainty in the biological parts of the assessment, the dose response (infectivity, human susceptibility) the micro-organism kinetics in the chain (growth, inactivation, stress response) and also in the more technological parts, the conditions in the chain and the consumer behaviour. Often the results of risk assessments are probability distributions of the variability in illness probability, also sometimes represented with their uncertainty. To make a link from these distributions to managerial decisions, that need to be black and white, should not be considered the job of risk managers. This link needs investment from both the assessor and the manager.