Cumulative dietary exposure assessment of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid using SAS® software

Specific effects on the thyroid relevant for performing a dietary cumulative risk assessment of pesticide residues: 2024 update

EFSA updated its previous work on the establishment of specific effects that are considered relevant for grouping pesticide residues targeting the thyroid and for performing the retrospective assessment of dietary cumulative risk (CRA). The two specific effects already selected in 2019 leading to the two cumulative assessment groups (CAGs) 'hypothyroidism' and 'C-cell hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia' were reconfirmed. Compared to 2019, the list of indicators that can be used to identify these specific effects was refined to only include histopathological changes. In a second phase of the work, data will be extracted on indicators of the specific effects from the dossiers on active substances (a.s.) used as plant protection products. The criteria for including a.s. into CAGs were also updated, together with the hazard characterisation methodology and the lines of evidence for assessing CAG-membership probabilities. The tasks related to the data extraction and the establishment of the CAGs on hypothyroidism and on C-cell hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia are beyond the scope of this report. This part of the CRA process has been outsourced and will be the subject of a separate report.

Risk Assessment of Combined Exposure to Multiple Chemicals at the European Food Safety Authority: Principles, Guidance Documents, Applications and Future Challenges

Human health and animal health risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals use the same steps as single-substance risk assessment, namely problem formulation, exposure assessment, hazard assessment and risk characterisation. The main unique feature of combined RA is the assessment of combined exposure, toxicity and risk. Recently, the Scientific Committee of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published two relevant guidance documents. The first one "Harmonised methodologies for the human health, animal health and ecological risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals" provides principles and explores methodologies for all steps of risk assessment together with a reporting table. This guidance supports also the default assumption that dose addition is applied for combined toxicity of the chemicals unless evidence for response addition or interactions (antagonism or synergism) is available. The second guidance document provides an account of the scientific criteria to group chemicals in assessment groups using hazard-driven criteria and prioritisation methods, i.e., exposure-driven and risk-based approaches. This manuscript describes such principles, provides a brief description of EFSA's guidance documents, examples of applications in the human health and animal health area and concludes with a discussion on future challenges in this field.

Principle-based recommendations for big data and machine learning in food safety: the P-SAFETY model

Big data and Machine learning Techniques are reshaping the way in which food safety risk assessment is conducted. The ongoing ‘datafication’ of food safety risk assessment activities and the progressive deployment of probabilistic models in their practices requires a discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of these advances. In particular, the low level of trust in EU food safety risk assessment framework highlighted in 2019 by an EU-funded survey could be exacerbated by novel methods of analysis. The variety of processed data raises unique questions regarding the interplay of multiple regulatory systems alongside food safety legislation. Provisions aiming to preserve the confidentiality of data and protect personal information are juxtaposed to norms prescribing the public disclosure of scientific information. This research is intended to provide guidance for data governance and data ownership issues that unfold from the ongoing transformation of the technical and legal domains of food safety risk assessment. Following the reconstruction of technological advances in data collection and analysis and the description of recent amendments to food safety legislation, emerging concerns are discussed in light of the individual, collective and social implications of the deployment of cutting-edge Big Data collection and analysis techniques. Then, a set of principle-based recommendations is proposed by adapting high-level principles enshrined in institutional documents about Artificial Intelligence to the realm of food safety risk assessment. The proposed set of recommendations adopts Safety, Accountability, Fairness, Explainability, Transparency as core principles (SAFETY), whereas Privacy and data protection are used as a meta-principle.

Probabilistic modelling techniques in dietary exposure assessment: application on the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults

Probabilistic exposure and risk assessment of chemical hazards in the diet have increasingly gained ground in recent years as a pragmatic approach for the approximation of reality. This work presents the outcomes of a project which aimed at applying probabilistic techniques for basic modelling of chronic dietary exposure to food contaminants following EFSA guidance. These techniques, based on Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software and on the programming language R, were employed for the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults, enabling the validation and the critical comparison of the two approaches. Harmonisation and optimisation of procedures, refinement of exposure assessment skills and confidence in the results were the main benefits. Data amount and validity were identified as critical parameters, influencing the precision of the results. Cadmium was selected as a case study due to its toxicological properties, its ubiquitous presence in food and the availability of Austrian occurrence data. Similar exposure and risk estimates were generated through MCRA and R in alternative optimistic and pessimistic exposure scenarios, suggesting low levels of concern, except for vegetarians, whose upper tail exposures are close to the established Tolerable Weekly Intake. However, as occurrence data gaps have been identified as the major element of uncertainty, the estimated exposure and risk levels are characterised as underestimated. Grains and grain-based products, potatoes and leafy vegetables are the main contributors to the intake. The results will contribute to risk management and to a future refinement of the assessment.

Cumulative dietary risk assessment of chronic acetylcholinesterase inhibition by residues of pesticides

A retrospective cumulative risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticide residues was conducted for chronic inhibition of acetylcholinesterase. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in a previous scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the nervous system. The exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2016, 2017 and 2018, and individual food consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and from different age groups. Exposure estimates were obtained by means of a two-dimensional probabilistic model, which was implemented in SAS ® software. The characterisation of cumulative risk was supported by an uncertainty analysis based on expert knowledge elicitation. For each of the 10 populations, it is concluded with varying degrees of certainty that cumulative exposure to pesticides contributing to the chronic inhibition of acetylcholinesterase does not exceed the threshold for regulatory consideration established by risk managers.

Comparison of cumulative dietary exposure to pesticide residues for the reference periods 2014-2016 and 2016-2018

Retrospective dietary exposure assessments were conducted for pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid and pesticides that have acute effects on the nervous system. Exposure assessments were performed using monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Exposure estimates were obtained for 10 populations of consumers (i.e. from different countries and from different age groups) by means of a two-dimensional probabilistic model. Results were compared to those previously obtained for the years 2014, 2015 and 2016, and exposure did not change significantly over time. However, an increase of the sampling uncertainty was identified for one pesticide in a specific food commodity. Strategies are therefore recommended to reduce the sampling uncertainty and to anticipate potential problems before initiating a cumulative risk assessment.

Dietary exposure to pesticide residues and associated health risks in infants and young children - Results of the French infant total diet study

A total diet study (TDS) was undertaken to estimate the chronic dietary exposure to pesticide residues and health risks for the French infants and young children below 3 years old. As a whole, 516 pesticides and metabolites were analysed in 309 food composite samples including 219 manufactured baby foods and 90 common foods, which cover 97% of infants and young children's diet. These composite samples were prepared using 5,484 food products purchased during all seasons from 2011 to 2012 and processed as consumed. Pesticide residues were detected in 67% of the samples and quantified in 27% of the baby food samples and in 60% of the common foods. Seventy-eight different pesticides were detected and 37 of these quantified at levels ranging from 0.02 to 594 µg/kg. The most frequently detected pesticides (greater than 5% samples) were (1) the fungicides 2-phenylphenol, azoxystrobin, boscalid, captan and its metabolite tetrahydrophthalimide, carbendazim, cyprodinil, difenoconazole, dodine, imazalil, metalaxyl, tebuconazole, thiabendazole, (2) the insecticides acetamiprid, pirimiphos-methyl and thiacloprid, (3) the herbicide metribuzin and (4) the synergist piperonyl butoxide. Dietary intakes were estimated for each of the 705 individuals studied and for 431 pesticides incl. 281 with a toxicological reference value (TRV). In the lower-bound scenario, which tends to underestimate the exposure, the TRV were never exceeded. In the upper-bound scenario that overestimates exposure, the estimated intakes exceeded the TRV for dieldrin and lindane (two persistent organic pollutants) and propylene thiourea, a metabolite of propineb. For these three substances, more sensitive analyses are needed to refine the assessment. For 17 other detected and/or prioritised pesticides, the risk could not be characterised due to the lack of a valid TRV, of certain food analyses or the absence of analytical standards for their metabolites.

Cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid

A retrospective chronic cumulative risk assessment of dietary exposure to pesticide residues, supported by an uncertainty analysis based on expert knowledge elicitation, was conducted for two effects on the thyroid, hypothyroidism and parafollicular cell (C-cell) hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in the scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the thyroid. Cumulative exposure assessments were conducted through probabilistic modelling by EFSA and the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) using two different software tools and reported separately. These exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and individual consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and different age groups. This report completes the characterisation of cumulative risk, taking account of the available data and the uncertainties involved. For each of the 10 populations, it is concluded with varying degrees of certainty that cumulative exposure to pesticides that have the chronic effects on the thyroid mentioned above does not exceed the threshold for regulatory consideration established by risk managers.

Cumulative dietary exposure assessment of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid using SAS® software

Retrospective dietary exposure assessments were conducted for two groups of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid: hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia of C‐cells, and hypothyroidism. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in the scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the thyroid. The exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and individual food consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and from different age groups. Exposure estimates were obtained for each group of pesticides by means of a 2‐dimensional probabilistic model, which was implemented in SAS^® software. Results were validated against exposure estimates obtained by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software. Both tools produced nearly identical results and minor differences were mainly attributed to the random effect of probabilistic modelling. The exposure estimates obtained in this report are used in the final scientific report on the cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid. The latter combines the hazard assessment and exposure assessment into a consolidated risk characterisation including all uncertainties.

This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2019.EN-1707/full

This publication is linked to the following EFSA Journal articles: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5801/full