Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union: (September 2020 to August 2021)

Genetic Variations of African Swine Fever Virus: Major Challenges and Prospects

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious viral disease affecting pigs and wild boars. It typically presents as a hemorrhagic fever but can also manifest in various forms, ranging from acute to asymptomatic. ASF has spread extensively globally, significantly impacting the swine industry. The complex and highly variable character of the ASFV genome makes vaccine development and disease surveillance extremely difficult. The overall trend in ASFV evolution is towards decreased virulence and increased transmissibility. Factors such as gene mutation, viral recombination, and the strain-specificity of virulence-associated genes facilitate viral variations. This review deeply discusses the influence of these factors on viral immune evasion, pathogenicity, and the ensuing complexities encountered in vaccine development, disease detection, and surveillance. The ultimate goal of this review is to thoroughly explore the genetic evolution patterns and variation mechanisms of ASFV, providing a theoretical foundation for advancement in vaccine and diagnostic technologies.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2023

In 2023, 14 Member States were affected by African swine fever (ASF), including Croatia and Sweden where ASF emerged (wild boar outbreaks only) and Greece where ASF re-emerged after being free since 2021. The number of ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU was five times higher than in 2022, reaching a similar magnitude to that in 2019. This was predominantly driven by the introduction and subsequent spread of ASF in Croatia and its resurgence in Romania, representing 96% of the EU outbreaks. ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs were clearly seasonal in all countries, with 88% of outbreaks reported between July and October. Most of the ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs were detected through clinical suspicion (94%), followed by tracing from affected establishments (3%), and the weekly testing of at least two dead pigs in establishments (3%). In wild boar, a 10% increase in the number of notified outbreaks was observed in the EU in comparison with 2022, with considerable variations between countries. A winter peak was observed only in Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. The epidemiological situation in wild boar improved in Germany and Hungary, as suggested by the decrease in the number of outbreaks and in the proportions of PCR-positive samples from dead wild boar. Overall, 31% of wild boar carcasses found during passive surveillance tested positive by PCR, representing 69% of the ASF outbreaks in wild boar in the EU. In contrast, 0.4% of hunted wild boar tested positive, representing 31% of the outbreaks. Despite the introduction of ASF into new countries and the increase in the number of outbreaks, the size of restricted zones in the EU remained stable, due to the highly clustered outbreaks in Croatia, and the reduction of restricted zones in Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria (in domestic pigs), and Hungary (in wild boar).

Identification of cost-effective biosecurity measures to reduce Salmonella along the pork production chain

The continued occurrence of salmonellosis cases in Europe attributed to the consumption of pork products highlights the importance of identifying cost-effective interventions. Certain biosecurity measures (BSMs) may be effective in reducing the prevalence of specific pathogens along the pork production chain and their presence in food products. The objective of this study was to identify pathogen-specific, cost-effective BSMs to reduce Salmonella at different stages of the pork production chain in two European countries - Austria (AT) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this purpose, a cost-benefit analysis was conducted based on the epidemiological output of an established quantitative microbiological risk assessment that simulated the implementation effect of the BSMs based on their risk ratios. For each of the BSMs, the associated costs and benefits were assessed individually and country-specifically. For both AT and UK, nine different BSMs were evaluated assuming a countrywide implementation rate of 100%. The results showed that four BSMs were cost-effective (benefit-cost ratio > 1) for AT and five for the UK. The uncertainty regarding the cost-effectiveness of the BSMs resulted from the variability of individual risk ratios, and the variability of benefits associated with the implementation of the BSMs. The low number of cost-effective BSMs highlights the need for holistic risk-based models and economic assessments. To increase the willingness to implement BSMs and maximize the benefits for stakeholders, who carry the majority of the implementation costs, epidemiological assessments of BSM effectiveness should consider the impact on several relevant pathogens simultaneously.

Vulnerability assessment of food imports-Conceptual framework and empirical application to the case of Switzerland

The world's food supply is becoming increasingly vulnerable because of rising political and climatic crises. To identify food supply vulnerabilities at an early stage, this paper proposes a multifactorial and standardized import vulnerability index (IVI). The IVI encompasses (i) an exporter vulnerability index (EVI) consisting of four exporter-specific factors and (ii) a product vulnerability index (PVI) consisting of three product-specific factors. We applied a robust principal component analysis to derive weights to combine these individual factors into a standardized IVI. The IVI was applied to food import-dependent Switzerland from 2014 to 2019 as an empirical case study. The results showed that a large share of Swiss food imports mainly originated from neighboring countries, indicating a very low to moderate EVI. Regarding the PVI, only product groups that were imported from a small number of countries (e.g., oilseeds) or that showed a low self-sufficiency ratio (e.g., coffee) or high price volatility (e.g., meat) exhibited a high value. Moreover, the findings demonstrate that the IVI showed neither large fluctuations nor a decreasing or increasing trend. With regular updates, the proposed indicator can become a valuable monitoring tool for food supply security.

Application of machine learning with large-scale data for an effective vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar in Japan

Classical swine fever has been spreading across the country since its re-emergence in Japan in 2018. Gifu Prefecture has been working diligently to control the disease through the oral vaccine dissemination targeting wild boars. Although vaccines were sprayed at 14,000 locations between 2019 and 2020, vaccine ingestion by wild boars was only confirmed at 30% of the locations. Here, we predicted the vaccine ingestion rate at each point by Random Forest modeling based on vaccine dissemination data and created prediction surfaces for the probability of vaccine ingestion by wild boar using spatial interpolation techniques. Consequently, the distance from the vaccination point to the water source was the most important variable, followed by elevation, season, road density, and slope. The area under the curve, model accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for model evaluation were 0.760, 0.678, 0.661, and 0.685, respectively. Areas with high probability of wild boar vaccination were predicted in northern, eastern, and western part of Gifu. Leave-One-Out Cross Validation results showed that Kriging approach was more accurate than the Inverse distance weighting method. We emphasize that effective vaccination strategies based on epidemiological data are essential for disease control and that our proposed tool is also applicable for other wildlife diseases.

Risk of African swine fever virus transmission among wild boar and domestic pigs in Poland

Introduction

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable disease of swine that impacts global pork trade and food security. In several countries across the globe, the disease persists in wild boar (WB) populations sympatric to domestic pig (DP) operations, with continued detections in both sectors. While there is evidence of spillover and spillback between the sectors, the frequency of occurrence and relative importance of different risk factors for transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface remain unclear.

Methods

To address this gap, we leveraged ASF surveillance data from WB and DP across Eastern Poland from 2014-2019 in an analysis that quantified the relative importance of different risk factors for explaining variation in each of the ASF surveillance data from WB and DP.

Results

ASF prevalence exhibited different seasonal trends across the sectors: apparent prevalence was much higher in summer (84% of detections) in DP, but more consistent throughout the year in WB (highest in winter with 45%, lowest in summer at 15%). Only 21.8% of DP-positive surveillance data included surveillance in WB nearby (within 5 km of the grid cell within the last 4 weeks), while 41.9% of WB-positive surveillance samples included any DP surveillance samples nearby. Thus, the surveillance design afforded twice as much opportunity to find DP-positive samples in the recent vicinity of WB-positive samples compared to the opposite, yet the rate of positive WB samples in the recent vicinity of a positive DP sample was 48 times as likely than the rate of positive DP samples in the recent vicinity of a positive WB sample. Our machine learning analyses found that positive samples in WB were predicted by WB-related risk factors, but not to DP-related risk factors. In contrast, WB risk factors were important for predicting detections in DP on a few spatial and temporal scales of data aggregation.

Discussion

Our results highlight that spillover from WB to DP might be more frequent than the reverse, but that the structure of current surveillance systems challenge quantification of spillover frequency and risk factors. Our results emphasize the importance of, and provide guidance for, improving cross-sector surveillance designs.

Seasonal Occurrence of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and Domestic Pigs in EU Member States

Since 2007, African swine fever (ASF) has spread widely within Europe and beyond. Most affected countries recorded outbreaks in domestic pigs and cases in wild boar. Outbreak data from 2014 to 2021 were used to investigate the seasonal pattern of ASF in domestic pigs and wild boar across affected member states of the European Union, since knowledge of seasonal patterns may provide the potential to adapt prevention, surveillance and control during times of increased risk. In domestic pigs, a yearly peak was observed in many European countries in summer (predominantly in July and August). In wild boar, the patterns showed more variability. In many countries, there was a seasonal peak of ASF occurrence in winter (predominantly in January and December), with an additional summer peak in the Baltic States (predominantly in July) and a further spring peak in Poland (predominantly in March). The observed seasonal effects may be related to the abundance and population dynamics of wild boar and to seasonality in pig farming. Moreover, ASF occurrence may also be influenced by human activities in both domestic pigs and wild boar.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2022

This report presents the epidemiological analysis of African swine fever (ASF) during 2022 based on the surveillance and pig population data submitted by the European Union (EU) affected countries and one neighbouring country. Coinciding with regulatory changes and an important decrease in ASF outbreaks in 2022 in the EU, the number of domestic pig samples tested as part of active surveillance decreased by 80%, while the number of samples from passive surveillance almost doubled compared with 2021. Most outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU were detected by testing clinical suspicions (93% of outbreaks), followed by tracing activities (5%) and weekly testing of the first two dead pigs per establishment (2%). Although most of the wild boar samples came from hunted animals, the probability of detecting PCR-positive animals was much higher in wild boar found dead. The ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU decreased by 79% while a decrease of 40% in the wild boar cases was observed in comparison with 2021. This was strongly marked in Romania, Poland and Bulgaria, with a reduction of 50-80% compared with 2021. In many countries, an important decrease in the number of pig establishments was observed, especially of small establishments with fewer than 100 pigs. The regional between farm incidence and proportion of pigs lost due to ASF in the EU was in general very low (average of 1%) apart from some regions in Romania. The impact of ASF on wild boar populations was variable, with a decline in wild boar abundance observed in certain countries versus a stable or even increased population after ASF introduction. This supports the negative relationship observed in this report between the proportion of the country with restricted zones due to ASF in wild boar and wild boar hunting bags.

Vaccines for African swine fever: an update

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal infectious disease of swine caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV). Currently, the disease is listed as a legally notifiable disease that must be reported to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). The economic losses to the global pig industry have been insurmountable since the outbreak of ASF. Control and eradication of ASF are very critical during the current pandemic. Vaccination is the optimal strategy to prevent and control the ASF epidemic, but since inactivated ASFV vaccines have poor immune protection and there aren't enough cell lines for efficient in vitro ASFV replication, an ASF vaccine with high immunoprotective potential still remains to be explored. Knowledge of the course of disease evolution, the way of virus transmission, and the breakthrough point of vaccine design will facilitate the development of an ASF vaccine. In this review, the paper aims to highlight the recent advances and breakthroughs in the epidemic and transmission of ASF, virus mutation, and the development of vaccines in recent years, focusing on future directions and trends.

Oronasal or Intramuscular Immunization with a Thermo-Attenuated ASFV Strain Provides Full Clinical Protection against Georgia 2007/1 Challenge

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious viral disease of suids that induces high mortality in domestic pigs and wild boars. Given the current spread of ASF, the development of a vaccine is a priority. During an attempt to inactivate the Georgia 2007/1 strain via heat treatment, we fortuitously generated an attenuated strain called ASFV-989. Compared to Georgia, the ASFV-989 strain genome has a deletion of 7458 nucleotides located in the 5'-end encoding region of MGF 505/360, which allowed for developing a DIVA PCR system. In vitro, in porcine alveolar macrophages, the replication kinetics of the ASFV-989 and Georgia strains were identical. In vivo, specific-pathogen-free (SPF) pigs inoculated with the ASFV-989 strain, either intramuscularly or oronasally, exhibited transient hyperthermia and slightly decreased growth performance. Animals immunized with the ASFV-989 strain showed viremia 100 to 1000 times lower than those inoculated with the Georgia strain and developed a rapid antibody and cell-mediated response. In ASFV-989-immunized pigs challenged 2 or 4 weeks later with the Georgia strain, no symptoms were recorded and no viremia for the challenge strain was detected. These results show that the ASFV-989 strain is a promising non-GMO vaccine candidate that is usable either intramuscularly or oronasally.

First Report of a Complete Genome Sequence of a Variant African Swine Fever Virus in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The objective of this study is to report the complete-genome sequence of a field African swine fever (ASF) virus (ASFV), namely ASF/VN/CanTho-OM/2021, which caused a fatal outbreak in domestic pigs in the Mekong Delta. Complete-genome sequencing detected an 18 bp nucleotide deletion in the EP402R gene (encoding for serotype-specific proteins CD2v) of ASF/VN/CanTho-OM/2021, which was determined to belong to genotype 2 and serotype 8. This mutation pattern was confirmed as unique in GenBank; thus, ASF/VN/CanTho-OM/2021 can be considered a novel variant, with a potential change of sero-characteristics within genotype 2. An additional unique mutation of 78 bp nucleotide insertion was also observed in the B475L gene. Additionally, four copies of tandem repeat sequences were found in the intergenic region (IGR) located between I73R and I329L, previously assigned as the IGR III variant. This study is the first to report the complete genome of ASFV in the Mekong Delta, and it highlights the necessity of strengthening molecular surveillance to provide further knowledge on the evolution and incursion of ASFV in the Mekong Delta and Vietnam.