Modeling Culex tarsalis abundance on the northern Colorado front range using a landscape-level approach

Irrigation increases and stabilizes mosquito populations and increases West Nile virus incidence

Humans have greatly altered earth's terrestrial water cycle with the majority of fresh water being used for agriculture. Irrigation changes spatial and temporal water availability and alters mosquito abundance and phenology. Previous studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on mosquito abundance and mosquito-borne disease have shown inconsistent results and little is known about the effect of irrigation on variability in mosquito abundance. We examined the effect of irrigation, climate and land cover on mosquito abundance and human West Nile virus (WNV) disease cases across California. Irrigation made up nearly a third of total water inputs, and exceeded precipitation in some regions. Abundance of two key vectors of several arboviruses, including WNV, Culex tarsalis and the Culex pipiens complex, increased 17-21-fold with irrigation. Irrigation reduced seasonal variability in C. tarsalis abundance by 36.1%. Human WNV incidence increased with irrigation, which explained more than a third (34.2%) of the variation in WNV incidence among California counties. These results suggest that irrigation can increase and decouple mosquito populations from natural precipitation variability, resulting in sustained and increased disease burdens. Shifts in precipitation due to climate change are likely to result in increased irrigation in many arid regions which could increase mosquito populations and disease.

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases.

METHODS

We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus, Culex nigripalpus, Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex restuans, Culex salinarius, and Culex tarsalis.

RESULTS

We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA.

CONCLUSIONS

Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change.

Serosurvey of West Nile virus in household-reared pigeons in Bauchi metropolis, Nigeria

Background

In Nigeria not much is known about West Nile virus (WNV) in pigeons. This study determined the involvement of household-reared pigeons in the circulation of WNV in Nigeria.

Methods

It was a cross-sectional study. Serological detection was done using competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and a pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on risk factors related to WNV in households.

Results

From the156 households enumerated, 376 pigeon serum samples were collected and tested for antibodies. A total of 3.5% (13/376) of the pigeon sera were positive. Risk factors for WNV in households indicated that not having a blocked or stagnant gutter that is not flowing, and having mosquito nets at the windows and doors were found to be protective (OR=0.69, 95% CI, 0.21-2.29; OR=0.46, 95% CI, 0.14-1.56).

Conclusions

Household-reared pigeons contribute to the epidemiology of WNV. There is need for further studies in other species of birds, and education of the populace about its zoonotic transmission.

Modeling the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests in Washington State, U.S.A

Well-adapted and abundant insect pests can negatively affect agricultural production. We modeled the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests, apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh), and western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran, in Washington State (WA), U.S.A. using biologically relevant environmental variables. We tested the hypothesis that abundance of the two species is influenced by different environmental variables, based on the fact that these two species evolved in different environments, have different host plants, and that R. pomonella is an introduced pest in WA while R. indifferens is native. We collected data on fly and host plant abundance at 61 randomly selected sites across WA in 2015 and 2016. We obtained land-cover, climate, and elevation data from online sources and used these data to derive relevant landscape variables and modeled fly abundance using generalized linear models. For R. pomonella, relatively high winter mean minimum temperature, low elevation, and developed land-cover were the top variables positively related to fly abundance. In contrast, for R. indifferens, the top variables related to greater fly abundance were high Hargreaves climatic moisture and annual heat-moisture deficits (indication of drier habitats), high host plant abundance, and developed land-cover. Our results identify key environmental variables driving Rhagoletis fly abundance in WA and can be used for understanding adaptation of insects to non-native and native habitats and for assisting fly quarantine and management decisions.

Long-term surveillance defines spatial and temporal patterns implicating Culex tarsalis as the primary vector of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV) has become the most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease in the United States, causing ~50,000 cases since its introduction in 1999. Transmitted primarily by Culex species, WNV transmission requires the complex interplay between bird reservoirs and mosquito vectors, with human cases the result of epizootic spillover. To better understand the intrinsic factors that drive these interactions, we have compiled infection data from sentinel chickens, mosquito vectors, and human cases in Iowa over a 15 year period (2002-2016) to better understand the spatial and temporal components that drive WNV transmission. Supplementing these findings with mosquito abundance, distribution, and host preferences data, we provide strong support that Culex tarsalis is the most important vector of human WNV infections in the region. Together, our analysis provides new insights into WNV infection patterns in multiple hosts and highlights the importance of long-term surveillance to understand the dynamics of mosquito-borne-disease transmission.

A Model of Culex quinquefasciatus Abundance Constructed Using Routine Surveillance and Treatment Data in Tarrant County, Texas

Mosquito surveillance and pesticide treatment data can be combined in statistical models to provide insight into drivers of mosquito population dynamics. In cooperation with the county-based public health authority, multiple municipalities in Tarrant County, Texas, supplied surveillance and pesticide treatment data available from the 2014 mosquito season for analysis. With these data, general linear mixed modeling was used to model population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus, the primary vector for West Nile virus. Temporally lagged pesticide treatment information, weather data, and habitat variables were used as predictors of log + 1 transformed mosquito count data, and Akaike information criteria corrected for small sample sizes (AICc)-based model selection and multimodel averaging was used to produce a final model of mosquito abundance. The model revealed that mosquito counts were driven mainly by seasonally fluctuating temperature, precipitation, human population density, and treatment. In particular, interactions between temperature and treatment, and precipitation and human population density significantly contributed to the interpretation of the effects of the nonweather variables.

Increased Human Incidence of West Nile Virus Disease near Rice Fields in California but Not in Southern United States

Anthropogenic land use change, including agriculture, can alter mosquito larval habitat quality, increase mosquito abundance, and increase incidence of vector-borne disease. Rice is a staple food crop for more than half of the world's population, with ∼1% of global production occurring within the United States (US). Flooded rice fields provide enormous areas of larval habitat for mosquito species and may be hotspots for mosquito-borne pathogens, including West Nile virus (WNV). West Nile virus was introduced into the Americas in 1999 and causes yearly epidemics in the US with an average of approximately 1,400 neuroinvasive cases and 130 deaths per year. We examined correlations between rice cultivation and WNV disease incidence in rice-growing regions within the US. Incidence of WNV disease increased with the fraction of each county under rice cultivation in California but not in the southern US. We show that this is likely due to regional variation in the mosquitoes transmitting WNV. Culex tarsalis was an important vector of WNV in California, and its abundance increased with rice cultivation, whereas in rice-growing areas of the southern US, the dominant WNV vector was Culex quinquefasciatus, which rarely breeds in rice fields. These results illustrate how cultivation of particular crops can increase disease risk and how spatial variation in vector ecology can alter the relationship between land cover and disease.

Multi-Scale Clustering of Lyme Disease Risk at the Expanding Leading Edge of the Range of Ixodes scapularis in Canada

Since its detection in Canada in the early 1990s, Ixodes scapularis, the primary tick vector of Lyme disease in eastern North America, has continued to expand northward. Estimates of the tick's broad-scale distribution are useful for tracking the extent of the Lyme disease risk zone; however, tick distribution may vary widely within this zone. Here, we investigated I. scapularis nymph distribution at three spatial scales across the Lyme disease emergence zone in southern Quebec, Canada. We collected ticks and compared the nymph densities among different woodlands and different plots and transects within the same woodland. Hot spot analysis highlighted significant nymph clustering at each spatial scale. In regression models, nymph abundance was associated with litter depth, humidity, and elevation, which contribute to a suitable habitat for ticks, but also with the distance from the trail and the type of trail, which could be linked to host distribution and human disturbance. Accounting for this heterogeneous nymph distribution at a fine spatial scale could help improve Lyme disease management strategies but also help people to understand the risk variation around them and to adopt appropriate behaviors, such as staying on the trail in infested parks to limit their exposure to the vector and associated pathogens.

A comparison of least squares regression and geographically weighted regression modeling of West Nile virus risk based on environmental parameters

BACKGROUND

The primary aim of the study reported here was to determine the effectiveness of utilizing local spatial variations in environmental data to uncover the statistical relationships between West Nile Virus (WNV) risk and environmental factors. Because least squares regression methods do not account for spatial autocorrelation and non-stationarity of the type of spatial data analyzed for studies that explore the relationship between WNV and environmental determinants, we hypothesized that a geographically weighted regression model would help us better understand how environmental factors are related to WNV risk patterns without the confounding effects of spatial non-stationarity.

METHODS

We examined commonly mapped environmental factors using both ordinary least squares regression (LSR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Both types of models were applied to examine the relationship between WNV-infected dead bird counts and various environmental factors for those locations. The goal was to determine which approach yielded a better predictive model.

RESULTS

LSR efforts lead to identifying three environmental variables that were statistically significantly related to WNV infected dead birds (adjusted R2 = 0.61): stream density, road density, and land surface temperature. GWR efforts increased the explanatory value of these three environmental variables with better spatial precision (adjusted R2 = 0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial granularity resulting from the geographically weighted approach provides a better understanding of how environmental spatial heterogeneity is related to WNV risk as implied by WNV infected dead birds, which should allow improved planning of public health management strategies.

Fine-scale distribution modeling of avian malaria vectors in north-central Kansas

Infectious diseases increasingly play a role in the decline of wildlife populations. Vector-borne diseases, in particular, have been implicated in mass mortality events and localized population declines are threatening some species with extinction. Transmission patterns for vector-borne diseases are influenced by the spatial distribution of vectors and are therefore not uniform across the landscape. Avian malaria is a globally distributed vector-borne disease that has been shown to affect endemic bird populations of North America. We evaluated shared habitat use between avian malaria vectors, mosquitoes in the genus Culex and a native grassland bird, the Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), by (1) modeling the distribution of Culex spp. occurrence across the Smoky Hills of north-central Kansas using detection data and habitat variables, (2) assessing the occurrence of these vectors at nests of female Greater Prairie-Chickens, and (3) evaluating if shared habitat use between vectors and hosts is correlated with malarial infection status of the Greater Prairie-Chicken. Our results indicate that Culex occurrence increased at nest locations compared to other available but unoccupied grassland habitats; however the shared habitat use between vectors and hosts did not result in an increased prevalence of malarial parasites in Greater Prairie-Chickens that occupied habitats with high vector occurrence. We developed a predictive map to illustrate the associations between Culex occurrence and infection status with malarial parasites in an obligate grassland bird that may be used to guide management decisions to limit the spread of vector-borne diseases.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Entomological Risk Indices for West Nile Virus Infection in Northern Colorado: 2006-2013

West Nile virus (WNV) is enzootic in northern Colorado. Annual surveillance activities in Fort Collins, CO, include collecting female Culex mosquitoes and testing them for the presence of WNV RNA in order to calculate 1) Culex female abundance, 2) WNV infection rate, and 3) the vector index (VI). These entomological risk indices inform public policy regarding the need for emergency adulticiding. Currently, these are calculated on a city-wide basis. In this study, we present descriptive data from historical surveillance records spanning 2006-2013 to discern seasonal and yearly patterns of entomological risk for WNV infection. Also, we retrospectively test the hypothesis that entomological risk is correlated with human transmission risk and is heterogeneous within the City of Fort Collins. Four logistically relevant zones within the city were established and used to test this hypothesis. Zones in the eastern portion of the city consistently had significantly higher Culex abundance and VI compared with zones in the west, leading to higher entomological risk indicators for human WNV infection in the east. Moreover, the relative risk of a reported human case of WNV infection was significantly higher in the eastern zones of the city. Our results suggest that a more spatially targeted WNV management program may better mitigate human risk for WNV infection in Fort Collins, and possibly other cities where transmission is enzootic, while at the same time reducing pesticide use.

Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors

While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, we estimate mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location, however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, mid-summer decreases in abundance may be off-set by shorter extrinsic incubation periods resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.

Risk factors for West Nile virus infection and disease in populations and individuals

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne enveloped positive-strand RNA virus that emerged in North America in 1999 in New York City. Over the past 15 years, WNV has become established throughout the USA and has spread into Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean. CDC reports indicate >41,000 clinical cases, including more than 1700 fatalities. An estimated 3 million people in the USA may have been infected to date. Infection with WNV is dependent on many factors including climate, mosquito habitats and immunologically naïve bird populations. In addition, variations within individuals contribute to the risk of severe disease, in particular, advanced age, hypertension, immunosuppression and critical elements of the immune response. Recent advances in technology now allow detailed analysis of complex immune interactions relevant to disease susceptibility.