Hepatocellular carcinoma in liver cirrhosis. A prospective study

Abdominal ultrasound and alpha-foetoprotein for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults with chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mostly in people with chronic liver disease and ranks sixth in terms of global instances of cancer, and fourth in terms of cancer deaths for men. Despite that abdominal ultrasound (US) is used as an initial test to exclude the presence of focal liver lesions and serum alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) measurement may raise suspicion of HCC occurrence, further testing to confirm diagnosis as well as staging of HCC is required. Current guidelines recommend surveillance programme using US, with or without AFP, to detect HCC in high-risk populations despite the lack of clear benefits on overall survival. Assessing the diagnostic accuracy of US and AFP may clarify whether the absence of benefit in surveillance programmes could be related to under-diagnosis. Therefore, assessment of the accuracy of these two tests for diagnosing HCC in people with chronic liver disease, not included in surveillance programmes, is needed.

OBJECTIVES

Primary: the diagnostic accuracy of US and AFP, alone or in combination, for the diagnosis of HCC of any size and at any stage in adults with chronic liver disease, either in a surveillance programme or in a clinical setting. Secondary: to assess the diagnostic accuracy of abdominal US and AFP, alone or in combination, for the diagnosis of resectable HCC; to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the individual tests versus the combination of both tests; to investigate sources of heterogeneity in the results.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Diagnostic-Test-Accuracy Studies Register, Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, until 5 June 2020. We applied no language or document-type restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of US and AFP, independently or in combination, for the diagnosis of HCC in adults with chronic liver disease, with cross-sectional and case-control designs, using one of the acceptable reference standards, such as pathology of the explanted liver, histology of resected or biopsied focal liver lesion, or typical characteristics on computed tomography, or magnetic resonance imaging, all with a six-months follow-up.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability concerns, using the QUADAS-2 checklist. We presented the results of sensitivity and specificity, using paired forest-plots, and tabulated the results. We used a hierarchical meta-analysis model where appropriate. We presented uncertainty of the accuracy estimates using 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We double-checked all data extractions and analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 373 studies. The index-test was AFP (326 studies, 144,570 participants); US (39 studies, 18,792 participants); and a combination of AFP and US (eight studies, 5454 participants). We judged at high-risk of bias all but one study. Most studies used different reference standards, often inappropriate to exclude the presence of the target condition, and the time-interval between the index test and the reference standard was rarely defined. Most studies with AFP had a case-control design. We also had major concerns for the applicability due to the characteristics of the participants. As the primary studies with AFP used different cut-offs, we performed a meta-analysis using the hierarchical-summary-receiver-operating-characteristic model, then we carried out two meta-analyses including only studies reporting the most used cut-offs: around 20 ng/mL or 200 ng/mL. AFP cut-off 20 ng/mL: for HCC (147 studies) sensitivity 60% (95% CI 58% to 62%), specificity 84% (95% CI 82% to 86%); for resectable HCC (six studies) sensitivity 65% (95% CI 62% to 68%), specificity 80% (95% CI 59% to 91%). AFP cut-off 200 ng/mL: for HCC (56 studies) sensitivity 36% (95% CI 31% to 41%), specificity 99% (95% CI 98% to 99%); for resectable HCC (two studies) one with sensitivity 4% (95% CI 0% to 19%), specificity 100% (95% CI 96% to 100%), and one with sensitivity 8% (95% CI 3% to 18%), specificity 100% (95% CI 97% to 100%). US: for HCC (39 studies) sensitivity 72% (95% CI 63% to 79%), specificity 94% (95% CI 91% to 96%); for resectable HCC (seven studies) sensitivity 53% (95% CI 38% to 67%), specificity 96% (95% CI 94% to 97%). Combination of AFP (cut-off of 20 ng/mL) and US: for HCC (six studies) sensitivity 96% (95% CI 88% to 98%), specificity 85% (95% CI 73% to 93%); for resectable HCC (two studies) one with sensitivity 89% (95% CI 73% to 97%), specificity of 83% (95% CI 76% to 88%), and one with sensitivity 79% (95% CI 54% to 94%), specificity 87% (95% CI 79% to 94%). The observed heterogeneity in the results remains mostly unexplained, and only in part referable to different cut-offs or settings (surveillance programme compared to clinical series). The sensitivity analyses, excluding studies published as abstracts, or with case-control design, showed no variation in the results. We compared the accuracy obtained from studies with AFP (cut-off around 20 ng/mL) and US: a direct comparison in 11 studies (6674 participants) showed a higher sensitivity of US (81%, 95% CI 66% to 90%) versus AFP (64%, 95% CI 56% to 71%) with similar specificity: US 92% (95% CI 83% to 97%) versus AFP 89% (95% CI 79% to 94%). A direct comparison of six studies (5044 participants) showed a higher sensitivity (96%, 95% CI 88% to 98%) of the combination of AFP and US versus US (76%, 95% CI 56% to 89%) with similar specificity: AFP and US 85% (95% CI 73% to 92%) versus US 93% (95% CI 80% to 98%).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In the clinical pathway for the diagnosis of HCC in adults, AFP and US, singularly or in combination, have the role of triage-tests. We found that using AFP, with 20 ng/mL as a cut-off, about 40% of HCC occurrences would be missed, and with US alone, more than a quarter. The combination of the two tests showed the highest sensitivity and less than 5% of HCC occurrences would be missed with about 15% of false-positive results. The uncertainty resulting from the poor study quality and the heterogeneity of included studies limit our ability to confidently draw conclusions based on our results.

Assessment of alpha-fetoprotein in the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Middle Eastern patients

BACKGROUND

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may vary by geographical region and racial background. No data exists for this test in the Middle Eastern population. In addition, there is limited data on the impact of virological status on AFP levels.

METHODS

In a multicenter, case-control study involving 206 cases, 199 cirrhotic and 197 chronic hepatitis controls, we assessed the utility of AFP in the diagnosis of HCC (sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, and positive likelihood ratios (LR). PPV and NPV were evaluated for three additional HCC prevalence rates (5, 10, and 20%).

RESULTS

The best discriminating AFP value was 11.7 ng/ml. The sensitivity ranged from 32 to 79.5% at different AFP levels with the specificity increasing sequentially from 47.7 to 98.5%. Sensitivity of AFP at the best cut-off level for hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and non-viral etiology for HCC was 73.7, 65.6, and 59.5%, respectively. Specificity at this level for HCV, HBV, and non-viral etiology was 36.6, 30.1, and 29.4%, respectively. AFP cut-off levels of 102, 200, and 400 ng/ml showed similar sensitivity (39.8, 35.9, and 32%, respectively) and specificity (96, 98.5, and 98.5% respectively). Positive LR for AFP at >11.7, >20, >102, >200, >400 ng/ml were 2.8, 3.3, 9.9, 23.8, and 21.2, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In cirrhotic patients, AFP has a poor screening and diagnostic value for HCC. Underlying viral etiology fails to influence the diagnostic accuracy of this test. An AFP level greater than 100 ng/ml has a high degree of specificity and may be used as a confirmatory test.

Clinical application of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay detecting hepatoma-specific gamma-glutamyltransferase

AIM

To develop a sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) measuring hepatoma-specific datura stramonium agglutinin-tightly bounding gamma-glutamyltransferase (DSA-GGT) and evaluate its clinical application for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis.

METHODS

Serum DSA-GGT concentrations were measured with the sandwich ELISA system in 96 patients with HCC, 240 patients with chronic liver diseases and 119 healthy subjects. The diagnostic performance of DSA-GGT for HCC was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The diagnostic accuracy of DSA-GGT was compared with serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP).

RESULTS

The area under the ROC curve of DSA-GGT in discriminating patients with HCC from non-HCC was 0.865 (95% confidence interval: 0.818-0.915, P < 0.001). Serum DSA-GGT was positive in 67 out of 96 patients with HCC and 23 out of 240 patients with non-HCC diseases. The sensitivity and specificity of DSA-GGT and AFP for the diagnosis of HCC were 69.8% and 90.5%, and 72.9% and 89.1%, respectively. A higher sensitivity (93.8%) in the identification of HCC was observed by combining DSA-GGT and AFP.

CONCLUSION

The sandwich ELISA system showed good reliability and reproducibility, and using the measurement, we found that serum DSA-GGT was a valuable marker of HCC, as a usable complementary to AFP. The sensitivity for identifying HCC could be significantly improved by combining DSA-GGT and AFP, and the combination could be used in large-scale screening for HCC in susceptible individuals.

Serological markers of liver cancer

Serological markers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are important for early diagnosis, as well as monitoring of tumour aggressiveness, treatment responsiveness, recurrence and survival. The three most common markers are total alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II). Total AFP has the sensitivity of 60% and specificity of 90% for the detection of HCC. Increase in the percentage of AFP-L3 over the total AFP (>10%) is very specific for small HCC. PIVKA-II is also more specific than total AFP in detecting HCC. AFP-L3 and PIVKA-II levels correlate with tumour aggressiveness and prognosis. All three markers are useful for monitoring treatment responsiveness and tumour recurrence. Since the levels of the three markers are independent of each other, combination of measurement of two or three markers will increase the sensitivity and diagnostic accuracy. Some novel markers including glypican-3 are being extensively studied.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis due to chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients using abdominal ultrasonography and alpha-foetoprotein levels is widely practiced.

AIM

To evaluate its cost-effectiveness using a Markov decision model.

METHODS

Several screening strategies with abdominal ultrasonography or computerized tomography and serum alpha-foetoprotein at 6-12-month intervals in 40-year-old patients with chronic hepatitis C and compensated cirrhosis were simulated from a societal perspective, resulting in discounted costs per quality-adjusted life-year saved. Extensive sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS

For the least efficacious strategy, annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (vs. no screening) was $23 043/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography, the most commonly used strategy in the United States, was more efficacious, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $33 083/quality-adjusted life-year vs. annual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography. The most efficacious strategy, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/ultrasonography, resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $73 789/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $51 750/quality-adjusted life-year vs. biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma is as cost-effective as other accepted screening protocols. Of the strategies evaluated, biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual ultrasonography gives the most quality-adjusted life-year gain while still maintaining a cost-effectiveness ratio <$50 000/quality-adjusted life-year. Biannual alpha-foetoprotein/annual computerized tomography screening may be cost-effective.

Hepatocellular carcinomas <2 cm in diameter complicating cirrhosis: ultrasound and clinical features in 153 consecutive patients

PURPOSE

To determine the frequencies of various echogenicity patterns in 153 consecutive unifocal hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) <2 cm detected in cirrhotic livers and to identify their relationships with clinical, laboratory, and microscopic features.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The tumors were classified as hypoechoic, hyperechoic, isoechoic, or nodule-in-nodule. Correlation was evaluated between hypoechoic and hyperechoic patterns and the following variables: age, gender, serum alphafetoprotein (AFP), tumor size, ultrasound features of liver parenchyma, cirrhosis etiology, and cyto/histological tumor grading.

RESULTS

One hundred and seventeen tumors (76.4%) were hypoechoic, 26 (17.0%) were hyperechoic, 5 (3.3%) were isoechoic, and 5 (3.3%) had nodule-in-nodule patterns. The hyperechoic pattern was more common in patients under 69 years (25.0% vs. 11.3% in those under 69 years or older, P=0.033). Patients with a hyperechoic pattern displayed a trend towards lower AFP levels and higher prevalence of hepatitis C-related cirrhosis. The prevalence of well-differentiated tumors was identical (56.6% and 56.5%) in the hypoechoic and hyperechoic subgroups. AFP was higher than 400 ng/ml in only 11/153 cases (7.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The hyperechoic pattern of HCC is by no means uncommon, particularly in patients under 70. Hyperechogenicity is not related to an increased frequency of well-differentiated tumors. AFP shows limited value as a confirmatory test of small HCC.

Prognostic factors for survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma after percutaneous ethanol injection therapy

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to identify clinical, biochemical, ultrasound, and/or pathologic parameters capable of predicting survival in a cohort of patients with well compensated cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who were treated with percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI).

METHODS

The study group included 111 patients with Child--Pugh Class A cirrhosis and with one (93 patients) or two (18 patients) HCC nodules measuring < 5 cm in greatest dimension. All patients underwent multisession PEI. The prognostic values of pretreatment and post-treatment variables were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

The overall 3-year and 5-year survival rates of 62% and 41%, respectively, were not influenced by age, gender, duration of chronic hepatitis, serum albumin, prothrombin time ratio, total bilirubin, gamma-glutamyl transferase, hepatitis B surface antigen, antihepatitis C virus, HCC size, HCC ultrasound pattern, HCC histologic or cytologic grading, greatest spleen dimension, esophageal varices, or ascites. Levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 14 ng/mL (P < 0.006), alanine aminotransferase > 75 IU/L (P < 0.04), and aspartate aminotransferase > 80 IU/L (P < 0.009) and platelet count < 92 x 10(9)/L (P < 0.02) before treatment were independent predictors of decreased survival. Among post-treatment parameters, AFP levels 6 months after PEI > 13.3 ng/mL (P < 0.003) and HCC recurrence in another segment of the liver (P < 0.04) were linked to decreased survival in univariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with Child--Pugh Class A cirrhosis with small uninodular or binodular HCC who are treated with multisession PEI, those with elevated serum AFP and transaminase levels and low platelet count before treatment are characterized by decreased survival. During follow-up, intrahepatic recurrence of the tumor is the main factor affecting survival.

Serum alpha-fetoprotein for diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic liver disease: influence of HBsAg and anti-HCV status

BACKGROUND

It is not established whether virological status affects the efficiency of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) as a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) marker among patients with chronic liver disease (CLD).

METHODS

We enrolled in a case-control study 170 HCC and 170 CLD patients, matched for age, sex, CLD and HBsAg/anti-HCV status. The AFP sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values were calculated. PPV and NPV were evaluated for three additional HCC prevalences (5, 10, and 20%).

RESULTS

The best discriminating AFP value was 16 ng/ml. A value of 20 ng/ml (above which investigations for HCC are recommended) had equivalent sensitivity (60.0 vs. 62.4%) and specificity (90.6 vs. 89.4%). PPV of 20 ng/ml was 84.6% but decreased to 25.1% at 5% tumor prevalence. NPV was 69.4% and rose to 97.7% at 5% prevalence. In the different groups of infected patients PPV ranged from 80.0 to 90.9%, falling to 17.4-34.5% at 5% prevalence. In noninfected patients PPV was 100% at any HCC prevalence. NPV ranged from 59.0 to 73.0%, reaching 96.5-98.1% at 5% prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

In CLD patients, AFP monitoring misses many HCCs and inappropriately arouses suspicion of malignancy in many patients. Its usefulness is barely affected by the infection responsible for CLD. An AFP elevation could be more indicative of HCC in non-infected patients.

Pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma

The pathogenesis of HCC is poorly understood at present. There is insufficient understanding to propose a robust general model of hepatic carcinogenesis, partly because pathogenic host and environmental factors show significant regional variation, making such generalization difficult. Figure 4 is a model based on data presented in this article. Multiple risk factors for HCC have been identified, including cirrhosis, male gender, increasing patient age, toxins, chronic viral hepatitis, and other specific liver diseases. The understanding of how the individual risk factors result in genetic changes is rudimentary, and there is even less understanding about interactions between risk factors. Future studies should acknowledge the geographic origin of the HCCs studied and consider the effects of cirrhosis, gender, and age. A more rigorous approach to these factors may help explicate the interaction with specific liver diseases so that a comprehensive model of hepatic carcinogenesis can be developed.

Serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and liver histology in patients with chronic hepatitis C

OBJECTIVE

The clinical and morphological significance of a raised alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level in patients with chronic hepatitis C is undefined. We sought to determine the relation between serum AFP level and liver histology in this population.

METHODS

We reviewed the clinical and histological records of 200 consecutively evaluated patients with chronic hepatitis C whose serum AFP levels were recorded. Two groups were studied: group I = 125/200 (62%) patients with normal AFP, < 10 ng/ml; and group II = 75/200 (38%) patients with raised AFP, > 10 ng/ml. The groups were compared according to age, gender, duration of disease, histology, and history of alcohol abuse.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in serum AFP based on age, gender, alcohol consumption, or disease duration. Significant histological differences were observed: cirrhosis was present in 57 (45%) patients in group I versus 51 (68%) in group II (p < 0.001). Hepatocellular carcinoma was more frequent in group II (14/75 [19%]) than in group I (1/125 [1%]) (p < 0.001). Ten of 77 (13%) noncirrhotic patients and 51/108 (47%) cirrhotic patients had a raised AFP (p < 0.002; relative risk, 3.262; confidence interval [C.I.], 1.912-5.564). A derived AFP level of 17.8 ng/ml maximized specificity for predicting histological outcome: one of 76 (1.3%), 29/108 (26.8%), and 14/15 (93.3%) patients were noncirrhotic, cirrhotic, or had HCC, respectively. This derived AFP value is 35% sensitive and 98.6% specific for cirrhosis, with a positive predictive value of 97.7%.

CONCLUSION

A serum AFP level >17.8 ng/ml strongly suggests the diagnosis of cirrhosis in a population of patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Ultrasound screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis: the evidence for an established clinical practice

Improvement in our current knowledge of epidemiology, natural history and treatment modalities form the background to generalize the use of ultrasound screening in cirrhosis. The cumulative probability of developing cancer is extremely high in cirrhotics and allows to focus screening programs on a well defined risk group thus maximizing cost-effectiveness. This review article highlights scientific evidences in favour of a generalized practice of US screening.

Clinical evaluation of autoantibodies to p53 protein in patients with chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma

In hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of patients from the Western hemisphere, mutations in the p53 tumour suppressor gene are present in up to 37% of cases. Conformational change and cellular accumulation can initiate an immune response with generation of circulating autoantibodies to p53 protein. In the present study, we investigated 711 consecutive patients with chronic liver disease to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of autoantibodies to p53 protein as a serological marker for HCC. Detection of p53 autoantibodies was performed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with immobilised recombinant p53 protein. Liver cirrhosis was present in 259 patients (36.4%) and a HCC was diagnosed in 75 patients (10.6%). Autoantibodies to p53 protein were detectable in 15 of 377 patients with chronic liver disease (4.0%) and in 10 of 259 patients presenting with liver cirrhosis (3.9%). All 25 p53 autoantibody-positive/HCC-negative patients were carefully investigated and no underlying malignancy was clinically detected, suggesting that elevated p53 antibody levels may not exclusively be detectable in patients with malignant disease. In patients with clinically manifest HCC, p53 autoantibodies were detected in 17 of 75 cases, thus resulting in a sensitivity of 22.7% and a specificity of 96.1%. In contrast, assessment of serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 69.3 and 91.8% (AFP > 20 ng/ml) and 53.3 and 99.1% (AFP > 100 ng/ml) for the detection of HCC, respectively. The data of the present study reveal that the presence of p53 autoantibodies in patients with chronic liver disease is not completely specific for HCC. Moreover, we obtained no direct evidence that p53 autoantibody formation precedes the clinical diagnosis of HCC. However, serological screening for HCC might be improved by combining AFP and p53 autoantibody assays.

Risk factors for intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients treated by percutaneous ethanol injection

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) complicating cirrhosis has a high intrahepatic recurrence rate after treatment by surgical resection or percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI). In this study, certain clinical, biochemical, and pathologic parameters were evaluated as risk factors for intrahepatic tumor recurrence in liver segments different from that of the first neoplasm in a group of 57 cirrhotic patients with single HCC < 5 cm treated by PEI.

METHODS

After PEI treatment of HCC, the patients were followed for a mean period of 33 +/- 16 months. The following pretreatment parameters were evaluated as predictors of tumor recurrence: age, gender, Child-Pugh score, hepatitis B virus surface antigen, hepatitis C virus antibodies, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level before PEI, alcohol abuse, HCC size, HCC ultrasound pattern, HCC histologic grade, HCC capsule, and time from cirrhosis diagnosis. Furthermore, the posttreatment parameters of the AFP level 1 month after PEI and recurrence of HCC in the same liver segment were also evaluated.

RESULTS

The cumulative 4-year intrahepatic recurrence rate of HCC was 62%. The log rank test indicated that, among pretreatment parameters, time from cirrhosis diagnosis > 6 years (P = 0.05) and AFP level before PEI of > 25 ng/mL (P = 0.00005) were significantly linked to tumor recurrence. Cox's proportional hazards model showed that only AFP level before PEI was independently associated with recurrence (P < 0.002). With regard to posttreatment parameters, an AFP level 1 month after PEI of > 13 ng/mL was shown to be significantly related to tumor recurrence by the log rank test (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhotic patients with single HCC treated by PEI who have slightly increased serum levels of AFP before and/or after PEI treatment are at increased risk of intrahepatic tumor recurrence and should undergo a close follow-up program.

Prospective study of early detection for primary liver cancer

PURPOSE

To determine whether repeated screening can lead to early detection of primary liver cancer (PLC) and in turn to an improved clinical result.

METHODS

In this randomized controlled study, Shanghai urban residents aged 35-55 years and with serum evidence of HBV infection or chronic liver disease were eligible for recruitment. Using cluster sampling, these subjects were allocated into two groups-the screening group and the control group: there were 8109 subjects in the screening group and 9711 in the control group. Subjects in the screening group were tested with serum AFP and real-time ultrasound every 6 months. One to four rounds of screening were completed. Liver cancer was treated according to stage at diagnosis.

RESULTS

All subjects enrolled were followed up and classed at the end-point as alive without liver cancer, alive with liver cancer, dead from liver cancer, or dead from another cause. The mean follow-up was 1.2 years; total follow-up was 12,038 person-years in the screening group and 9,573 person-years in the control group. We detected 38 patients with PLC in the screening group and 18 patients with PLC in the control group. In the patients in the screening group 76.8% of patients were at a subclinical stage, and 70.6% of them underwent resection, the 1- and 2-year survival rates being 88.1% and 77.5%, respectively. However, in the control group, none of the patients was at a subclinical stage when diagnosed, none of them underwent resection, and none of them survived over 1 year. The lead time was estimated at 0.45 years. The cost of detecting PLC at an early stage was RMB 12,600 (US$1,500).

CONCLUSION

The study proved that screening the high-risk population for PLC with a serum AFP test and real-time ultrasound examination can detect patients in the early stages, increase the resection rate and prolong the survival time. It is therefore recommended that screening for PLC be advocated in any high-risk area.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for detection of small hepatocellular carcinoma in western patients with Child-Pugh class A cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma is increased in patients with cirrhosis. Therefore, surveillance for detection of small tumors has been proposed. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical and economical effects of screening for small hepatocellular carcinoma in Western patients with Child-Pugh class A cirrhosis.

METHODS

Based on a decision analysis model representing the natural history of cirrhosis and the continuing risk of developing cancer, we compared a strategy of performing ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein dosage every 6 months with a strategy of seeking tumors only if they are clinically suspected. In both strategies, partial hepatectomy was performed for patients with compensated cirrhosis and diagnosed with resectable tumors. We did not consider orthotopic liver transplantation as a therapeutic option. Data were drawn from MEDLINE search.

RESULTS

For most patients seen in the daily practice, screening provides negligible benefits in life expectancy (< 3 months), even when the incidence of cancer is high (6% per year), and despite our choice of consistent biases in favor of screening. The cost-effectiveness ratios of systematic surveillance range between $48,000 and $284,000 for each additional life-year gained, more than other common medical practices. However, for a minority of patients with a predicted cirrhosis-related survival rate above 80% at 5 years (the "ideal" candidates) screening may increase mean life expectancy by 3 to 9 months depending on age, cancer incidence (1.5% to 6% per year), and survival rate after surgery (40% to 60% at 3 years). In this clinical setting, the cost-effectiveness ratios range between $26,000 and $55,000 for each additional life-year gained.

CONCLUSIONS

For most patients with cirrhosis seen in the daily practice, biannual screening to detect symptomless tumors accessible to surgical resection provides negligible benefit in life expectancy. In addition, the cost-effectiveness ratios incurred by this strategy is more important than that of many current medical practices. On the other hand, for well-targeted patients with the longest reported cirrhosis-related survival rate, screening may substantially increase mean life expectancy, at lower costs. Careful selection of these patients with a favorable cirrhosis-related prognosis requires further studies.

Alpha-fetoprotein and p53 autoantibodies in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus infection is a common cause of chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma. Recently, mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene with generation of circulating autoantibodies to p53 protein have been detected in a significant proportion of patients with different malignancies. Using ELISA methods we assessed alpha-fetoprotein and anti-p53 as serological screening parameters for hepatocellular carcinoma in 147 consecutive patients with chronic hepatitis C. Liver cirrhosis was histologically diagnosed in 58 patients (39.5%) and a hepatocellular carcinoma confirmed in seven patients (4.8%). Serum alpha-fetoprotein was raised above 20 ng/ml in 26/147 patients and above 100 ng/ml in 5/147 patients. In 6/7 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, alpha-fetoprotein was raised above 20 ng/ml, but only in 3/7 cases above 100 ng/ml, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 85.7% and 85.7% (alpha-fetoprotein > 20 ng/ml) and 42.9% and 98.6% (alpha-fetoprotein > 100 ng/ml) for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively. Autoantibodies to p53 were detected in 3/7 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, but in 0/140 patients without malignancy (sensitivity 42.9%, specificity 100%). Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma was improved by combining alpha-fetoprotein measurement (level > 100 ng/ml) with detection for anti-p53 (sensitivity 71.4%, specificity 98.6%). In conclusion, the presence of anti-p53 was highly specific for malignancy and independent of alpha-fetoprotein status. Further studies including a larger number of patients with hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma are required to investigate whether serological testing for anti-p53 in combination with alpha-fetoprotein might improve the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma in high-risk patients with liver cirrhosis.

Small (< or = 3 cm) hepatic lesions. Results of sonographically guided fine-needle biopsy in 385 patients

Three hundred ninety-five consecutive patients with sonographically detected hepatic lesions < or = 3 cm in diameter were submitted to ultrasonically guided fine-needle biopsy: 24 (6.1%) were < or = 1 cm in diameter; 142 (36%) were between 1.1 and 2 cm, and 229 (57.9%) were between 2.1 and 3 cm in diameter. In the 385 controlled cases, we obtained a cytohistological diagnosis of malignancy in 243 (63.1%): 135 hepatocellular carcinomas, 97 metastases, and 11 hepatic lymphomas. There were 104 true negatives (27%) and 38 false negatives (9.9%). The sensitivity of ultrasonically guided fine needle biopsy in the total series was 86.5%, the specificity 100%, with an overall accuracy of 90.1%. The overall accuracy was higher for lesions between 2.1 and 3 cm in diameter (90%) and was lower for lesions located in the sixth segment (84.6%). The correct diagnosis was obtained in the 83.3% (135/162) of small hepatocellular carcinomas versus 89.8% (97/108) in cases of small metastatic lesions.