Estimating the Future Impact of a Multi-Pronged Intervention Strategy on Ocular Disease Sequelae Caused by Trachoma: A Modeling Study

Acceptability and feasibility of tests for infection, serological testing, and photography to define need for interventions against trachoma

BACKGROUND

Trachoma causes blindness due to repeated conjunctival infection by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). Transmission intensity is estimated, for programmatic decision-making, by prevalence of the clinical sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years. Research into complementary indicators to field-graded TF includes work on conjunctival photography, tests for ocular Ct infection, and serology. The perceived acceptability and feasibility of these indicators among a variety of stakeholders is unknown.

METHODOLOGY

Focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with public health practitioners in Tanzania were conducted. FGDs explored themes including participants' experience with, and thoughts about, different diagnostic approaches. The framework method for content analysis was used. IDIs yielded lists of perceived strengths of, and barriers to, implementation for programmatic use of each indicator. These were used to form an online quantitative survey on complementary indicators distributed to global stakeholders via meetings, mailing lists, and social media posts.

RESULTS

Sixteen FGDs and 11 IDIs were conducted in October-November 2022. In general, all proposed sample methods were deemed acceptable by community members. Common themes included not wanting undue discomfort and a preference for tests perceived as accurate. Health workers noted the importance of community education for some sample types. The online survey was conducted in April-May 2023 with 98 starting the questionnaire and 81 completing it. Regarding barriers to implementing diagnostics, the highest agreement items related to feasibility, rather than acceptability. No evidence of significant differences was found in responses pertaining to community acceptability based on participant characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

All of the indicators included were generally deemed acceptable by all stakeholders in Tanzania, although community education around the benefits and risks of different sample types, as well as addressing issues around feasibility, will be key to successful, sustainable integration of these indicators into trachoma programs.

Forecasting the elimination of active trachoma: An empirical model

Background

Great progress has been made toward the elimination of trachoma as a public-health problem. Mathematical and statistical models have been used to forecast when the program will attain the goal of the elimination of active trachoma, defined as prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular in 1–9 year olds (TF1–9) <5%. Here we use program data to create an empirical model predicting the year of attaining global elimination of TF1–9.

Methodology/Principal findings

We calculated the mean number of years (95% CI) observed for an implementation unit (IU) to move from a baseline TF1–9 prevalence ≥5% to the elimination threshold, based on the region (Ethiopia vs. non-Ethiopia) and baseline prevalence category. Ethiopia IUs had significantly different rates of reaching the TF1–9 elimination threshold after a trachoma impact survey (TIS) compared to non-Ethiopia IUs across all baseline categories. We used those estimates to predict when remaining active trachoma-endemic IUs (TF1–9 ≥5%) would have their last round of mass drug administration (MDA) based on the mean number of years required and number of MDA rounds already completed. Our model predicts that elimination of TF1–9 will be achieved in 2028 in Ethiopia (95% CI: 2026–2033) and 2029 outside of Ethiopia (95% CI: 2023–2034), with some IUs in East Africa predicted to be the last requiring MDA globally.

Conclusions/Significance

Our empirical estimate is similar to those resulting from previous susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and mathematical models, suggesting that the forecast achievement of TF1–9 elimination is realistic with the caveat that although disease elimination progress can be predicted for most IUs, there is an important minority of IUs that is not declining or has not yet started trachoma elimination activities. These IUs represent an important barrier to the timely global elimination of active trachoma.

The population-based prevalence of trachomatous scarring in a trachoma hyperendemic setting: results from 152 impact surveys in Amhara, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Trachomatous scarring (TS) results from repeated infection with the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. Pronounced scarring is an underlying cause of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) that can lead to blindness. Since the condition is irreversible, TS in adults has been considered a marker of past exposure to trachoma infection. The aim of this report was to estimate the population-based prevalence of TS within Amhara, Ethiopia, a region with a historically high burden of trachoma.

METHODS

District-level multi-stage cluster surveys were conducted in all districts between 2010 and 2015 to monitor the impact of approximately 5 years of trachoma interventions. Approximately 40 households were sampled per cluster and all participants ages ≥ 1 year were graded for the 5 World Health Organization simplified signs. Before each survey round, trachoma graders participated in a 7-day training and reliability exam that included cases of TS. TS prevalence estimates were weighted to account for sampling design and adjusted for age and sex using post-stratification weighting.

RESULTS

Across the 152 districts in Amhara, 208,510 individuals ages 1 year and older were examined for the signs of trachoma. Region-wide, the prevalence of TS was 8.2 %, (95 % Confidence Interval [CI]: 7.7-8.6 %), and the prevalence among individuals ages 15 years and older (n = 110,137) was 12.6 % (95 % CI: 12.0-13.3 %). District-level TS prevalence among individuals ages 15 years and older ranged from 0.9 to 36.9 % and was moderately correlated with district prevalence of TT (r = 0.31; P < 0.001). The prevalence of TS increased with age, reaching 22.4 % among those ages 56 to 60 years and 24.2 % among those ages 61 to 65 years. Among children ages 1 to 15 years TS prevalence was 2.2 % (95 % CI: 1.8-2.8 %), increased with age (P < 0.001), and 5 % of individuals with TS also had trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that Amhara has had a long history of trachoma exposure and that a large population remains at risk for developing TT. It is promising, however, that children, many born after interventions began, have low levels of TS compared to other known trachoma-hyperendemic areas.

Etiology of Global Corneal Blindness and Current Practices of Corneal Transplantation: A Focused Review

PURPOSE

The purpose of this focused review was to explore the etiologies of corneal blindness worldwide and compare them with the indications and type of keratoplasties (eg, full-thickness penetrating keratoplasty, anterior lamellar keratoplasty, or endothelial keratoplasty) performed.

METHODS

A literature search of the articles published in the top 10 journals (based on the Altmetrics score) relevant to corneal transplantation within the past 20 years was performed to determine how the focus within corneal transplantation has changed over time. These data were compared with the prevalence and etiology of corneal blindness in each respective region worldwide.

RESULTS

The leading etiologies of corneal blindness worldwide are primarily due to anterior corneal pathology with a normal endothelium, and the prevalence is highest in developing countries. In addition, the number and type of corneal transplantations performed globally indicate that current practices are disproportionately skewed in favor of endothelial keratoplasty, which is targeted for the pathology prevalent in developed countries. Despite the large number of individuals who would benefit from anterior lamellar keratoplasty, this technique seems to be infrequently performed.

CONCLUSIONS

Most corneal blindness worldwide is secondary to anterior corneal pathology because of infections and trauma. However, this does not align with the current trends and practices in the field of corneal transplantation. We discuss potential solutions to address the current leading causes of global corneal blindness, including increasing the number of anterior lamellar keratoplasties performed, using long-term preserved corneas by trained surgeons, and improving eye bank handling and distribution of procured tissues.

Interventions to maximize facial cleanliness and achieve environmental improvement for trachoma elimination: A review of the grey literature

BACKGROUND

Efforts are underway to scale-up the facial cleanliness and environmental improvement (F&E) components of the World Health Organization's SAFE strategy for elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. Improving understanding of the F&E intervention landscape could inform advancements prior to scale-up, and lead to more effective and sustained behavior change.

METHODS/FINDINGS

We systematically searched for relevant grey literature published from January 1965 through August 2016. Publications were eligible for review if they described interventions addressing F&E in the context of trachoma elimination programs. Subsequent to screening, we mapped attributes of F&E interventions. We then employed three behavior change frameworks to synthesize mapped data and identify potential intervention gaps. We identified 27 documents meeting inclusion criteria. With the exception of some recent programming, F&E interventions have largely focused on intermediate and distal antecedents of behavior change. Evidence from our analyses suggests many interventions are not designed to address documented determinants of improved F&E practices. No reviewed documents endorsed inclusion of intervention components related to behavioral maintenance or resilience-factors critical for sustaining improved behaviors.

CONCLUSIONS

If left unaddressed, identified gaps in intervention content may continue to challenge uptake and sustainability of improved F&E behaviors. Stakeholders designing and implementing trachoma elimination programs should review their F&E intervention content and delivery approaches with an eye toward improvement, including better alignment with established behavior change theories and empirical evidence. Implementation should move beyond information dissemination, and appropriately employ a variety of behavior change techniques to address more proximal influencers of change.

Trachomatous scarring among children in a formerly hyper-endemic district of Tanzania

Background

Associations between repeated ocular infections with Chlamydia trachomatis in childhood and conjunctival scarring in adulthood are well established. Trachomatous scarring (TS) in children has also been observed in hyper-endemic areas, but data are scant regarding childhood scarring in areas where trachoma has been reduced to hypo-endemic levels.

Methods/Principle findings

In this cross-sectional study, a random sample of children, ages 1–9 years, were selected from 38 communities in the formerly hyper-endemic district of Kongwa, Tanzania. Each participant received an ocular examination and eye-swab test for C. trachomatis infection. Conjunctival photographs were taken and analyzed at 5x magnification to determine scarring presence and severity. Community-level case clustering was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficients, and associations between TS presence and demographic/clinical factors were assessed using contingency table analyses. 1,496 children (78% of eligible) participated in this study. The mean age was 5.5 years and 51% were female. Scarring prevalence was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5%– 3.0%). The prevalence of follicular trachoma and ocular C. trachomatis infection were 3.2% and 6.5%, respectively. Most TS cases (68.7%) fell into the mildest category, grade S1. 18.7% were grade S2; 12.6% were grade S3. No significant associations were seen between TS presence and age, sex, follicular trachoma, or active ocular C. trachomatis infection (p-values: 0.14, 0.48, 0.27, 0.15, respectively). Thirty communities (78.9%) had 0–1 TS cases, and the most seen in any single community was four cases. Three years ago, follicular trachoma prevalence averaged 4.9% in communities with 0–1 TS cases, but 7.6% in communities with 2–4 TS cases (p-value: 0.08).

Conclusions

In this formerly hyper-endemic district of Tanzania, TS was rare in 1–9 year-olds and usually mild when present. Communities with higher rates of follicular trachoma in the past were more likely to have ≥2 cases of scarring, but the association was not statistically significant.

Trachoma is a disease in which the conjunctiva of the eye is repeatedly infected by the intracellular organism Chlamydia trachomatis. This can cause scarring of the eyelid’s inner surface, which in turn can cause the eyelashes to turn inwards, scratching the eye and leading to blindness. This scarring process is associated with age and usually does not present until adulthood. However, in communities with very high trachoma rates, it has also been reported in children. There are scant data addressing the presence and nature of such scarring among children in areas where elimination efforts have reduced trachoma from high to low prevalence. In this study, we found that even though interventions in Kongwa, Tanzania, have successfully reduced trachoma levels in recent years, 1–9 year-olds can still be found with eyelid scarring. However, this scarring is rare and generally mild. Eyelid scarring from trachoma is known to increase with age, but interestingly, that was not seen in this cohort. This suggests that not only have interventions reduced eyelid scarring in children to low levels, but that this protective affect may be sustained into adolescence and adulthood.

Mathematical Modelling of Trachoma Transmission, Control and Elimination

The World Health Organization has targeted the elimination of blinding trachoma by the year 2020. To this end, the Global Elimination of Blinding Trachoma (GET, 2020) alliance relies on a four-pronged approach, known as the SAFE strategy (S for trichiasis surgery; A for antibiotic treatment; F for facial cleanliness and E for environmental improvement). Well-constructed and parameterized mathematical models provide useful tools that can be used in policy making and forecasting in order to help to control trachoma and understand the feasibility of this large-scale elimination effort. As we approach this goal, the need to understand the transmission dynamics of infection within areas of different endemicities, to optimize available resources and to identify which strategies are the most cost-effective becomes more pressing. In this study, we conducted a review of the modelling literature for trachoma and identified 23 articles that included a mechanistic or statistical model of the transmission, dynamics and/or control of (ocular) Chlamydia trachomatis. Insights into the dynamics of trachoma transmission have been generated through both deterministic and stochastic models. A large body of the modelling work conducted to date has shown that, to varying degrees of effectiveness, antibiotic administration can reduce or interrupt trachoma transmission. However, very little analysis has been conducted to consider the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (and particularly the F and E components of the SAFE strategy) in helping to reduce transmission. Furthermore, very few of the models identified in the literature review included a structure that permitted tracking of the prevalence of active disease (in the absence of active infection) and the subsequent progression to disease sequelae (the morbidity associated with trachoma and ultimately the target of GET 2020 goals). This represents a critical gap in the current trachoma modelling literature, which makes it difficult to reliably link infection and disease. In addition, it hinders the application of modelling to assist the public health community in understanding whether trachoma programmes are on track to reach the GET goals by 2020. Another gap identified in this review was that of the 23 articles examined, only one considered the cost-effectiveness of the interventions implemented. We conclude that although good progress has been made towards the development of modelling frameworks for trachoma transmission, key components of disease sequelae representation and economic evaluation of interventions are currently missing from the available literature. We recommend that rapid advances in these areas should be urgently made to ensure that mathematical models for trachoma transmission can robustly guide elimination efforts and quantify progress towards GET 2020.

Blinding Trachoma: Systematic Review of Rates and Risk Factors for Progressive Disease

BACKGROUND

Sight loss from trachoma is the end result of a scarring disease process starting in early childhood and characterised by repeated episodes of conjunctival inflammation (active trachoma). Subsequently, the conjunctiva becomes scarred, causing the eyelashes to turn inwards and scratch the cornea (trichiasis), damaging the corneal surface and leading to corneal opacification and visual impairment. It is thought that this process is initiated and driven by repeated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis. We review published longitudinal studies to re-examine the disease process, its progression rates and risk factors.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We searched PubMed for studies presenting incidence and progression data for the different stages of trachoma natural history. We only included studies reporting longitudinal data and identified 11 publications meeting this criterion. The studies were very heterogeneous in design, disease stage, duration, size and location, precluding meta-analysis. Severe conjunctival inflammation was consistently associated with incident and progressive scarring in five studies in which this was examined. One study reported an association between C. trachomatis infection and incident scarring. No studies have yet demonstrated an association between C. trachomatis infection and progressive scarring. Several studies conducted in regions with low prevalence active disease and C. trachomatis infection found evidence of on-going scarring progression.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Overall, there are few longitudinal studies that provide estimates of progression rates and risk factors, reflecting the challenges of conducting such studies. Our understanding of this disease process and the long-term impact of control measures is partial. Intense conjunctival inflammation was consistently associated with scarring, however, direct evidence demonstrating an association between C. trachomatis and progression is limited. This suggests that on-going chlamydial reinfection may not be mandatory for progression of established scarring, indicating that sight threatening trichiasis may continue to evolve in older people in formerly endemic populations, that will require service provision for years after active disease is controlled.

Trachoma

INTRODUCTION

Active trachoma is caused by chronic infection of the conjunctiva by Chlamydia trachomatis, and is the world's leading infectious cause of blindness. Infection can lead to: scarring of the tarsal conjunctiva; inversion of the eyelashes (trichiasis), so that they abrade the cornea; and corneal opacity, resulting in blindness. Trachoma is a disease of poverty, overcrowding, and poor sanitation. Active disease affects mainly children, but adults are at increased risk of scarring.

METHODS AND OUTCOMES

We conducted a systematic overview, aiming to answer the following clinical question: What are the effects of interventions to prevent scarring trachoma by reducing the prevalence of active trachoma? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library and other important databases up to December 2014 (Clinical Evidence overviews are updated periodically; please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this overview).

RESULTS

At this update, searching of electronic databases retrieved 170 studies. After deduplication and removal of conference abstracts, 96 records were screened for inclusion in the overview. Appraisal of titles and abstracts led to the exclusion of 61 studies and the further review of 35 full publications. Of the 35 full articles evaluated, three previously included systematic reviews were updated, one systematic review and two RCTs were added at this update, and two RCTs and one further report were added the Comment sections. We performed a GRADE evaluation for nine PICO combinations.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic overview, we categorised the efficacy for seven interventions based on information about the effectiveness and safety of antibiotics, face washing (alone or plus topical tetracycline), fly control (through the provision of pit latrines, and using insecticide alone or plus antibiotics), and health education.