Critical analysis of carcinogenicity study outcomes. Relationship with pharmacological properties

Cell proliferation and carcinogenesis: an approach to screening for potential human carcinogens

Cancer arises from multiple genetic errors occurring in a single stem cell (clonality). Every time DNA replicates, mistakes occur. Thus, agents can increase the risk of cancer either by directly damaging DNA (DNA-reactive carcinogens) or increasing the number of DNA replications (increased cell proliferation). Increased cell proliferation can be achieved either by direct mitogenesis or cytotoxicity with regenerative proliferation. Human carcinogens have a mode of action of DNA reactivity, immunomodulation (mostly immunosuppression), increased estrogenic activity (mitogenesis), or cytotoxicity and regeneration. By focusing on screening for these four effects utilizing in silico, in vitro, and short-term in vivo assays, a biologically based screening for human chemical carcinogens can be accomplished with greater predictivity than the traditional 2-year bioassay with considerably less cost, less time, and the use of fewer animals.

ICH S1 prospective evaluation study and weight of evidence assessments: commentary from industry representatives

Industry representatives on the ICH S1B(R1) Expert Working Group (EWG) worked closely with colleagues from the Drug Regulatory Authorities to develop an addendum to the ICH S1B guideline on carcinogenicity studies that allows for a weight-of-evidence (WoE) carcinogenicity assessment in some cases, rather than conducting a 2-year rat carcinogenicity study. A subgroup of the EWG composed of regulators have published in this issue a detailed analysis of the Prospective Evaluation Study (PES) conducted under the auspices of the ICH S1B(R1) EWG. Based on the experience gained through the Prospective Evaluation Study (PES) process, industry members of the EWG have prepared the following commentary to aid sponsors in assessing the standard WoE factors, considering how novel investigative approaches may be used to support a WoE assessment, and preparing appropriate documentation of the WoE assessment for presentation to regulatory authorities. The commentary also reviews some of the implementation challenges sponsors must consider in developing a carcinogenicity assessment strategy. Finally, case examples drawn from previously marketed products are provided as a supplement to this commentary to provide additional examples of how WoE criteria may be applied. The information and opinions expressed in this commentary are aimed at increasing the quality of WoE assessments to ensure the successful implementation of this approach.

ICH S1 prospective evaluation study: weight of evidence approach to predict outcome and value of 2-year rat carcinogenicity studies. A report from the regulatory authorities subgroup

Introduction: The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) initiated a process in 2012 to revise the S1B Guideline "Testing for Carcinogenicity of Pharmaceuticals". Previous retrospective analysis indicated the importance of histopathological risk factors in chronic toxicity studies, evidence of endocrine perturbation, and positive genetic toxicology results as potentially predictive indicators of carcinogenic risk. In addition, a relationship between pharmacodynamic activity and carcinogenicity outcome in long-term rodent studies has been reported. It was postulated that these factors could be evaluated in a Weight-of-Evidence (WoE) approach to predict the outcome of a 2-year rat study. Methods: The ICH S1B(R1) Expert Working Group (EWG) conducted a Prospective Evaluation Study (PES) to determine the regulatory feasibility of this WoE approach. Drug Regulatory Authorities (DRAs) evaluated 49 Carcinogenicity Assessment Documents (CADs), which describe the WoE for submitted pharmaceutical compounds. Each compound was categorized into a carcinogenic risk category including a statement of the value of the 2-year rat study. The outcome of the completed 2-year rat studies was evaluated in relation to the prospective CAD to determine the accuracy of predictions. Results: Based on the results of the PES, the EWG concluded that the evaluation process for assessing human carcinogenic risk of pharmaceuticals described in ICH S1B could be expanded to include a WoE approach. Approximately 27% of 2-year rat studies could be avoided in cases where DRAs and sponsors unanimously agreed that such a study would not add value. Discussion: Key factors supporting a WoE assessment were identified: data that inform carcinogenic potential based on drug target biology and the primary pharmacologic mechanism of the parent compound and major human metabolites; results from secondary pharmacology screens for this compound and major human metabolites that inform carcinogenic risk; histopathology data from repeated-dose toxicity studies; evidence for hormonal perturbation; genotoxicity data; and evidence of immune modulation. The outcome of the PES indicates that a WoE approach can be used in place of conducting a 2-year rat study for some pharmaceuticals. These data were used by the ICH S1B(R1) EWG to write the R1 Addendum to the S1B Guideline published in August 2022.

Increased Cell Proliferation as a Key Event in Chemical Carcinogenesis: Application in an Integrated Approach for the Testing and Assessment of Non-Genotoxic Carcinogenesis

In contrast to genotoxic carcinogens, there are currently no internationally agreed upon regulatory tools for identifying non-genotoxic carcinogens of human relevance. The rodent cancer bioassay is only used in certain regulatory sectors and is criticized for its limited predictive power for human cancer risk. Cancer is due to genetic errors occurring in single cells. The risk of cancer is higher when there is an increase in the number of errors per replication (genotoxic agents) or in the number of replications (cell proliferation-inducing agents). The default regulatory approach for genotoxic agents whereby no threshold is set is reasonably conservative. However, non-genotoxic carcinogens cannot be regulated in the same way since increased cell proliferation has a clear threshold. An integrated approach for the testing and assessment (IATA) of non-genotoxic carcinogens is under development at the OECD, considering learnings from the regulatory assessment of data-rich substances such as agrochemicals. The aim is to achieve an endorsed IATA that predicts human cancer better than the rodent cancer bioassay, using methodologies that equally or better protect human health and are superior from the view of animal welfare/efficiency. This paper describes the technical opportunities available to assess cell proliferation as the central gateway of an IATA for non-genotoxic carcinogenicity.

Re-evaluating the need for chronic toxicity studies with therapeutic monoclonal antibodies, using a weight of evidence approach

To support registration of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for chronic indications, 6-month toxicity studies have historically been conducted. Experience with mAb development has shown a relatively benign and well-understood safety profile for this class, with most toxicity findings anticipated based on pharmacology. We evaluated whether a 6-month toxicity study is necessary to assess the long-term safety of mAbs. Data on First-in-Human (FIH)-enabling and chronic toxicity studies were shared for 142 mAbs submitted by 11 companies. Opportunities to further optimize study designs to reduce animal usage were identified. For 71% of mAbs, no toxicities or no new toxicities were noted in chronic studies compared to FIH-enabling study findings. New toxicities of potential concern for human safety or that changed trial design were identified in 13.5% of cases, with 7% being considered critical and 2% leading to program termination. An iterative, weight-of-evidence model which considers factors that influence the overall risk for a mAb to cause toxicity was developed. This model enables an evidence-based justification, suggesting when 3-month toxicity studies are likely sufficient to support late-stage clinical development and registration for some mAbs.

Rethinking chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity assessment for agrochemicals project (ReCAAP): A reporting framework to support a weight of evidence safety assessment without long-term rodent bioassays

Rodent cancer bioassays have been long-required studies for regulatory assessment of human cancer hazard and risk. These studies use hundreds of animals, are resource intensive, and certain aspects of these studies have limited human relevance. The past 10 years have seen an exponential growth of new technologies with the potential to effectively evaluate human cancer hazard and risk while reducing, refining, or replacing animal use. To streamline and facilitate uptake of new technologies, a workgroup comprised of scientists from government, academia, non-governmental organizations, and industry stakeholders developed a framework for waiver rationales of rodent cancer bioassays for consideration in agrochemical safety assessment. The workgroup used an iterative approach, incorporating regulatory agency feedback, and identifying critical information to be considered in a risk assessment-based weight of evidence determination of the need for rodent cancer bioassays. The reporting framework described herein was developed to support a chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity study waiver rationale, which includes information on use pattern(s), exposure scenario(s), pesticidal mode-of-action, physicochemical properties, metabolism, toxicokinetics, toxicological data including mechanistic data, and chemical read-across from similar registered pesticides. The framework could also be applied to endpoints other than chronic toxicity and carcinogenicity, and for chemicals other than agrochemicals.

Rethinking agrochemical safety assessment: A perspective

Agrochemical safety assessment has traditionally relied on the use of animals for toxicity testing, based on scientific understanding and test guidelines developed in the 1980s. However, since then, there have been significant advances in the toxicological sciences that have improved our understanding of mechanisms underpinning adverse human health effects. The time is ripe to 'rethink' approaches used for human safety assessments of agrochemicals to ensure they reflect current scientific understanding and increasingly embrace new opportunities to improve human relevance and predictivity, and to reduce the reliance on animals. Although the ultimate aim is to enable a paradigm shift and an overhaul of global regulatory data requirements, there is much that can be done now to ensure new opportunities and approaches are adopted and implemented within the current regulatory frameworks. This commentary reviews current initiatives and emerging opportunities to embrace new approaches to improve agrochemical safety assessment for humans, and considers various endpoints and initiatives (including acute toxicity, repeat dose toxicity studies, carcinogenicity, developmental and reproductive toxicity, exposure-driven approaches, inhalation toxicity, and data modelling). Realistic aspirations to improve safety assessment, incorporate new technologies and reduce reliance on animal testing without compromising protection goals are discussed.

Integration of data across toxicity endpoints for improved safety assessment of chemicals: the example of carcinogenicity assessment

In view of the need to enhance the assessment of consumer products called for in the EU Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability, we developed a methodology for evaluating hazard by combining information across different systemic toxicity endpoints and integrating the information with new approach methodologies. This integrates mechanistic information with a view to avoiding redundant in vivo studies, minimising reliance on apical endpoint tests and ultimately devising efficient testing strategies. Here, we present the application of our methodology to carcinogenicity assessment, mapping the available information from toxicity test methods across endpoints to the key characteristics of carcinogens. Test methods are deconstructed to allow the information they provide to be organised in a systematic way, enabling the description of the toxicity mechanisms leading to the adverse outcome. This integrated approach provides a flexible and resource-efficient means of fully exploiting test methods for which test guidelines are available to fulfil regulatory requirements for systemic toxicity assessment as well as identifying where new methods can be integrated.

Physiologically Relevant Estrogen Receptor Alpha Pathway Reporters for Single-Cell Imaging-Based Carcinogenic Hazard Assessment of Estrogenic Compounds

Estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) belongs to the nuclear hormone receptor family of ligand-inducible transcription factors and regulates gene networks in biological processes such as cell growth and proliferation. Disruption of these networks by chemical compounds with estrogenic activity can result in adverse outcomes such as unscheduled cell proliferation, ultimately culminating in tumor formation. To distinguish disruptive activation from normal physiological responses, it is essential to quantify relationships between different key events leading to a particular adverse outcome. For this purpose, we established fluorescent protein MCF7 reporter cell lines for ERα-induced proliferation by bacterial artificial chromosome-based tagging of 3 ERα target genes: GREB1, PGR, and TFF1. These target genes are inducible by the non-genotoxic carcinogen and ERα agonist 17β-estradiol in an ERα-dependent manner and are essential for ERα-dependent cell-cycle progression and proliferation. The 3 GFP reporter cell lines were characterized in detail and showed different activation dynamics upon exposure to 17β-estradiol. In addition, they demonstrated specific activation in response to other established reference estrogenic compounds of different potencies, with similar sensitivities as validated OECD test methods. This study shows that these fluorescent reporter cell lines can be used to monitor the spatial and temporal dynamics of ERα pathway activation at the single-cell level for more mechanistic insight, thereby allowing a detailed assessment of the potential carcinogenic activity of estrogenic compounds in humans.

A comprehensive view on mechanistic approaches for cancer risk assessment of non-genotoxic agrochemicals

Currently the only methods for non-genotoxic carcinogenic hazard assessment accepted by most regulatory authorities are lifetime carcinogenicity studies. However, these involve the use of large numbers of animals and the relevance of their predictive power and results has been scientifically challenged. With increased availability of innovative test methods and enhanced understanding of carcinogenic processes, it is believed that tumour formation can now be better predicted using mechanistic information. A workshop organised by the European Partnership on Alternative Approaches to Animal Testing brought together experts to discuss an alternative, mechanism-based approach for cancer risk assessment of agrochemicals. Data from a toolbox of test methods for detecting modes of action (MOAs) underlying non-genotoxic carcinogenicity are combined with information from subchronic toxicity studies in a weight-of-evidence approach to identify carcinogenic potential of a test substance. The workshop included interactive sessions to discuss the approach using case studies. These showed that fine-tuning is needed, to build confidence in the proposed approach, to ensure scientific correctness, and to address different regulatory needs. This novel approach was considered realistic, and its regulatory acceptance and implementation can be facilitated in the coming years through continued dialogue between all stakeholders and building confidence in alternative approaches.

Tg.rasH2 Mouse Model for Assessing Carcinogenic Potential of Pharmaceuticals: Industry Survey of Current Practices

The Tg.rasH2 mouse was developed as an alternative model to the traditional 2-year mouse bioassay for pharmaceutical carcinogenicity testing. This model has found extensive use in support of pharmaceutical drug development over the last few decades. It has the potential to improve quality and timeliness, reduce animal usage, and in some instances allow expedient decision-making regarding the human carcinogenicity potential of a drug candidate. Despite the increased use of the Tg.rasH2 model, there has been no systematic survey of current practices in the design, interpretation of results from the bioassay, and global health authority perspectives. Therefore, the aim of this work was to poll the pharmaceutical industry on study design practices used in the dose range finding and definitive 6-month studies and on results relative to the ongoing negotiations to revise The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use S1 Guidance. Twenty-two member companies of International Consortium for Innovation and Quality in Pharmaceutical Development DruSafe Leadership Group participated in the survey, sharing experiences from studies conducted with 55 test compounds between 2010 and 2018. The survey results provide very useful insights into study design and interpretation. Importantly, the results identified several key opportunities for reducing animal use and increasing the value of testing for potential human carcinogenicity using this model. Recommended changes to study designs that would reduce animal usage include eliminating the requirement to include positive control groups in every study, use of nontransgenic wild-type littermates in the dose range finding study, and use of microsampling to reduce or eliminate satellite groups for toxicokinetics.

A cross-sector call to improve carcinogenicity risk assessment through use of genomic methodologies

Robust genomic approaches are now available to realize improvements in efficiencies and translational relevance of cancer risk assessments for drugs and chemicals. Mechanistic and pathway data generated via genomics provide opportunities to advance beyond historical reliance on apical endpoints of uncertain human relevance. Published research and regulatory evaluations include many examples for which genomic data have been applied to address cancer risk assessment as a health protection endpoint. The alignment of mature, robust, reproducible, and affordable technologies with increasing demands for reduced animal testing sets the stage for this important transition. We present our shared vision for change from leading scientists from academic, government, nonprofit, and industrial sectors and chemical and pharmaceutical safety applications. This call to action builds upon a 2017 workshop on "Advances and Roadblocks for Use of Genomics in Cancer Risk Assessment." The authors propose a path for implementation of innovative cancer risk assessment including incorporating genomic signatures to assess mechanistic relevance of carcinogenicity and enhanced use of genomics in benchmark dose and point of departure evaluations. Novel opportunities for the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors to combine expertise, resources, and objectives to achieve a common goal of improved human health protection are identified.

Toxicological evaluation of ergocalciferol, cholecalciferol, and their metabolites by a category approach

Predictive toxicology plays an integral role in determining the toxicological profiles of chemicals for safety assessment. Vitamin D is an essential vitamin for the regulation of calcium absorption and homeostasis, as well as the treatment and prevention of several diseases such as rickets and osteomalacia. According to European Medicines Agency (EMA) Guideline on setting health-based exposure limits for use in risk identification in the manufacturing of different medicinal products in shared facilities, permitted daily exposure (PDE) calculation for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) should be done by the medicinal product producers. PDE calculation is mainly based on critical toxicological endpoints such as repeated dose toxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity, developmental and reproductive toxicity, and hypersensitivity potential. During this procedure, critical toxicological endpoints data of an API can be used to predict the PDE of another API that has a similar chemical structure. In the present paper, human toxicological endpoints of vitamin D₂, D₃, and their metabolites were evaluated and afterwards the data gaps in the toxicological endpoints were filled by forming a category. The read-across was justified by the structural and metabolic similarities. Molecular similarity and mechanistic relevance were found to be substantial, resulting in low uncertainty. The untested vitamin D analogs within the category can be read across with confidence to complete the data gaps related to the human health endpoints.

AhR Activation in Pharmaceutical Development: Applying Liver Gene Expression Biomarker Thresholds to Identify Doses Associated with Tumorigenic Risks in Rats

Aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) activation is associated with carcinogenicity of non-genotoxic AhR-activating carcinogens such as 2, 3, 7, 8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin (TCDD), and is often observed with drug candidate molecules in development and raises safety concerns. As downstream effectors of AhR signaling, the expression and activity of Cyp1a1 and Cyp1a2 genes are commonly monitored as evidence of AhR activation to inform carcinogenic risk of compounds in question. However, many marketed drugs and phytochemicals are reported to induce these Cyps modestly and are not associated with dioxin-like toxicity or carcinogenicity. We hypothesized that a threshold of AhR activation needs to be surpassed in a sustained manner in order for the dioxin-like toxicity to manifest, and a simple liver gene expression signature based on Cyp1a1 and Cyp1a2 from a short-term rat study could be used to assess AhR activation strength and differentiate tumorigenic dose levels from non-tumorigenic ones. To test this hypothesis, short term studies were conducted in Wistar Han rats with two AhR-activating carcinogens (TCDD and PCB126) at minimally carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic dose levels, and three AhR-activating non-carcinogens (omeprazole, mexiletine, and canagliflozin) at the top doses used in their reported 2-year rat carcinogenicity studies. A threshold of AhR activation was identified in rat liver that separated a meaningful "tumorigenic-strength AhR signal" from a statistically-significant AhR activation signal that was not associated with dioxin-like carcinogenicity. These studies also confirmed the importance of the sustainability of AhR activation for carcinogenic potential. A sustained activation of AhR above the threshold could thus be used in early pharmaceutical development to identify dose levels of drug candidates expected to exhibit dioxin-like carcinogenic potential.

One science-driven approach for the regulatory implementation of alternative methods: A multi-sector perspective

EU regulations call for the use of alternative methods to animal testing. During the last decade, an increasing number of alternative approaches have been formally adopted. In parallel, new 3Rs-relevant technologies and mechanistic approaches have increasingly contributed to hazard identification and risk assessment evolution. In this changing landscape, an EPAA meeting reviewed the challenges that different industry sectors face in the implementation of alternative methods following a science-driven approach. Although clear progress was acknowledged in animal testing reduction and refinement thanks to an integration of scientifically robust approaches, the following challenges were identified: i) further characterization of toxicity pathways; ii) development of assays covering current scientific gaps, iii) better characterization of links between in vitro readouts and outcome in the target species; iv) better definition of alternative method applicability domains, and v) appropriate implementation of the available approaches. For areas having regulatory adopted alternative methods (e.g., vaccine batch testing), harmonised acceptance across geographical regions was considered critical for broader application. Overall, the main constraints to the application of non-animal alternatives are the still existing gaps in scientific knowledge and technological limitations. The science-driven identification of most appropriate methods is key for furthering a multi-sectorial decrease in animal testing.

Goodbye to the bioassay

It is time to say goodbye to the standard two-year rodent bioassay. While a few, primarily genotoxic, compounds which are clearly associated with human cancer test positive in the bioassay, there is no science-based, sound foundation for presuming it provides either a valid broad (across different chemicals) capability for discerning potential human carcinogens or a valid starting point for making human risk assessment decisions. The two basic assumptions underlying the bioassay are: (1) rodent carcinogens are human carcinogens; and (2) results obtained at high doses are indicative of results that will occur at lower, environmentally relevant, doses. Both of these assumptions are not correct. Furthermore, a reevaluation of National Toxicology Program bioassay data has revealed that if the dose group size were increased from 50 to 200 rodents per group the number of bioassays deemed to be positive would increase from approximately 50% to very close to 100%. Thus, under the extreme conditions of the bioassay (e.g., high doses, lifetime exposure and, at times, a non-physiological route of administration) virtually all chemicals tested could be made into rodent carcinogens. In recent years there have been a number of proposals to move away from the standard bioassay. In particular, a recently formulated decision tree (Cohen, 2017), which places an emphasis on dose-response relationships and invites the use of MOA information, provides a sound basis for moving on from the bioassay and towards a rational approach to both identify chemicals which appear to have the potential to cause cancer in humans and take dose-response relationships into consideration in order to place the extent, if any, of the risk they might pose into proper perspective.

Is current risk assessment of non-genotoxic carcinogens protective?

Non-genotoxic carcinogens (NGTXCs) do not cause direct DNA damage but induce cancer via other mechanisms. In risk assessment of chemicals and pharmaceuticals, carcinogenic risks are determined using carcinogenicity studies in rodents. With the aim to reduce animal testing, REACH legislation states that carcinogenicity studies are only allowed when specific concerns are present; risk assessment of compounds that are potentially carcinogenic by a non-genotoxic mode of action is usually based on subchronic toxicity studies. Health-based guidance values (HBGVs) of NGTXCs may therefore be based on data from carcinogenicity or subchronic toxicity studies depending on the legal framework that applies. HBGVs are usually derived from No-Observed-Adverse-Effect-Levels (NOAELs). Here, we investigate whether current risk assessment of NGTXCs based on NOAELs is protective against cancer. To answer this question, we estimated Benchmark doses (BMDs) for carcinogenicity data of 44 known NGTXCs. These BMDs were compared to the NOAELs derived from the same carcinogenicity studies, as well as to the NOAELs derived from the associated subchronic studies. The results lead to two main conclusions. First, a NOAEL derived from a subchronic study is similar to a NOAEL based on cancer effects from a carcinogenicity study, supporting the current practice in REACH. Second, both the subchronic and cancer NOAELs are, on average, associated with a cancer risk of around 1% in rodents. This implies that for those chemicals that are potentially carcinogenic in humans, current risk assessment of NGTXCs may not be completely protective against cancer. Our results call for a broader discussion within the scientific community, followed by discussions among risk assessors, policy makers, and other stakeholders as to whether or not the potential cancer risk levels that appear to be associated with currently derived HBGVs of NGXTCs are acceptable.

3S - Systematic, systemic, and systems biology and toxicology

A biological system is more than the sum of its parts - it accomplishes many functions via synergy. Deconstructing the system down to the molecular mechanism level necessitates the complement of reconstructing functions on all levels, i.e., in our conceptualization of biology and its perturbations, our experimental models and computer modelling. Toxicology contains the somewhat arbitrary subclass "systemic toxicities"; however, there is no relevant toxic insult or general disease that is not systemic. At least inflammation and repair are involved that require coordinated signaling mechanisms across the organism. However, the more body components involved, the greater the challenge to reca-pitulate such toxicities using non-animal models. Here, the shortcomings of current systemic testing and the development of alternative approaches are summarized. We argue that we need a systematic approach to integrating existing knowledge as exemplified by systematic reviews and other evidence-based approaches. Such knowledge can guide us in modelling these systems using bioengineering and virtual computer models, i.e., via systems biology or systems toxicology approaches. Experimental multi-organ-on-chip and microphysiological systems (MPS) provide a more physiological view of the organism, facilitating more comprehensive coverage of systemic toxicities, i.e., the perturbation on organism level, without using substitute organisms (animals). The next challenge is to establish disease models, i.e., micropathophysiological systems (MPPS), to expand their utility to encompass biomedicine. Combining computational and experimental systems approaches and the chal-lenges of validating them are discussed. The suggested 3S approach promises to leverage 21st century technology and systematic thinking to achieve a paradigm change in studying systemic effects.

Moving forward in carcinogenicity assessment: Report of an EURL ECVAM/ESTIV workshop

There is an increased need to develop novel alternative approaches to the two-year rodent bioassay for the carcinogenicity assessment of substances where the rodent bioassay is still a basic requirement, as well as for those substances where animal use is banned or limited or where information gaps are identified within legislation. The current progress in this area was addressed in a EURL ECVAM- ESTIV workshop held in October 2016, in Juan les Pins. A number of initiatives were presented and discussed, including data-driven, technology-driven and pathway-driven approaches. Despite a seemingly diverse range of strategic developments, commonalities are emerging. For example, providing insight into carcinogenicity mechanisms is becoming an increasingly appreciated aspect of hazard assessment and is suggested to be the best strategy to drive new developments. Thus, now more than ever, there is a need to combine and focus efforts towards the integration of available information between sectors. Such cross-sectorial harmonisation will aid in building confidence in new approach methods leading to increased implementation and thus a decreased necessity for the two-year rodent bioassay.

Prediction of the Carcinogenic Potential of Human Pharmaceuticals Using Repeated Dose Toxicity Data and Their Pharmacological Properties

In an exercise designed to reduce animal use, we analyzed the results of rat subchronic toxicity studies from 289 pharmaceutical compounds with the aim to predict the tumor outcome of carcinogenicity studies in this species. The results were obtained from the assessment reports available at the Medicines Evaluation Board of the Netherlands for 289 pharmaceutical compounds that had been shown to be non-genotoxic. One hundred forty-three of the 239 compounds not inducing putative preneoplastic lesions in the subchronic study did not induce tumors in the carcinogenicity study [true negatives (TNs)], whereas 96 compounds were categorized as false negatives (FNs) because tumors were observed in the carcinogenicity study. Of the remaining 50 compounds, 31 showed preneoplastic lesions in the subchronic study and tumors in the carcinogenicity study [true positives (TPs)], and 19 only showed preneoplastic lesions in subchronic studies but no tumors in the carcinogenicity study [false positives (FPs)]. In addition, we then re-assessed the prediction of the tumor outcome by integrating the pharmacological properties of these compounds. These pharmacological properties were evaluated with respect to the presence or absence of a direct or indirect proliferative action. We found support for the absence of cellular proliferation for 204 compounds (TN). For 67 compounds, the presence of cellular hyperplasia as evidence for proliferative action could be found (TP). Therefore, this approach resulted in an ability to predict non-carcinogens at a success rate of 92% and the ability to detect carcinogens at 98%. The combined evaluation of pharmacological and histopathological endpoints eventually led to only 18 unknown outcomes (17 categorized as FN and 1 as FP), thereby enhancing both the negative and positive predictivity of an evaluation based upon histopathological evaluation only. The data show the added value of a consideration of the pharmacological properties of compounds in relation to potential class effects, both in the negative and positive direction. A high negative and a high positive predictivity will both result in waiving the need for conducting 2-year rat carcinogenicity studies, if this is accepted by Regulatory Authorities, which will save large numbers of animals and reduce drug development costs and time.