Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Piedmont (Italy): a Bayesian spatial analysis of the incident cases

Croplands proximity is associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence and age at onset

BACKGROUND

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease resulting from an intricate interplay between genetics and environmental factors. Many studies have explored living in rural areas as a possible risk factor for ALS, without focusing simultaneously on incidence, age at onset and phenotypic features.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of croplands residential proximity on ALS incidence and phenotype, focusing on age of onset, site of onset and progression rate.

METHODS

The address history of ALS patients belonging to the population-based Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta registry (PARALS), diagnosed between 2007 and 2014, was obtained for the 20 years prior to the onset date. The smoothed ALS incidence per year (im) was compared with the percentage of area covered by each crop for each municipality. A proximity score was calculated for each cropland by geolocation, measuring the percentage of area surrounding patients' residence for variable radii, and was used to compare croplands exposure and phenotype.

RESULTS

We observed an increased ALS incidence in the municipalities with a higher percentage of area covered by arable crops (R = 0.191, p < 0.001). Age at onset was significantly lower in those patients who lived near arable crops, with a median anticipation ranging from 1.8 to 3.4 years; using historical data, a significant anticipation was found also for patients living near vineyards.

DISCUSSION

Our study proved a direct association between arable crops and ALS risk and an inverse association between arable crops and vineyards proximity and age at onset, suggesting the possible causative role of specific environmental contaminants.

Analysis of the spatial distribution of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Virginia

Objective: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that is usually fatal. Environmental exposures have been posited in the etiology of ALS, but few studies have modeled the spatial risk of ALS over large geographic areas. In this paper, our goal was to analyze the spatial distribution of ALS in Virginia and identify any areas with significantly elevated risk using Virginia ALS Association administrative data. Methods: We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression models to estimate the relative risk for ALS in Virginia census tracts, adjusting for several covariates posited to be associated with the disease. We used an intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior to allow for spatial correlation in the risk estimates and stabilize estimates over space. Results: Considerable variation in ALS risk existed across Virginia, with greater relative risk found in the central and western parts of the state. We identified significantly elevated relative risk in a number of census tracts. In particular, Henrico, Albemarle, and Botetourt counties all contained at least four census tracts with significantly elevated risk. Conclusions: We identified several areas with significantly elevated ALS risk across Virginia census tracts. These results can inform future studies of potential environmental triggers for the disease, whose etiology is still being understood.

Early-onset, conjugal, twin-discordant, and clusters of sporadic ALS: Pathway to discovery of etiology via lifetime exposome research

The identity and role of environmental factors in the etiology of sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (sALS) is poorly understood outside of three former high-incidence foci of Western Pacific ALS and a hotspot of sALS in the French Alps. In both instances, there is a strong association with exposure to DNA-damaging (genotoxic) chemicals years or decades prior to clinical onset of motor neuron disease. In light of this recent understanding, we discuss published geographic clusters of ALS, conjugal cases, single-affected twins, and young-onset cases in relation to their demographic, geographic and environmental associations but also whether, in theory, there was the possibility of exposure to genotoxic chemicals of natural or synthetic origin. Special opportunities to test for such exposures in sALS exist in southeast France, northwest Italy, Finland, the U.S. East North Central States, and in the U.S. Air Force and Space Force. Given the degree and timing of exposure to an environmental trigger of ALS may be related to the age at which the disease is expressed, research should focus on the lifetime exposome (from conception to clinical onset) of young sALS cases. Multidisciplinary research of this type may lead to the identification of ALS causation, mechanism, and primary prevention, as well as to early detection of impending ALS and pre-clinical treatment to slow development of this fatal neurological disease.

Spatio-temporal clustering of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in France: A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To assess spatial aggregates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incident cases, using a solid geo-epidemiological statistical method, in France.

METHODS

This population-based study (2003-2011) investigated 47.1 million person-years of follow-up (PYFU). Case ascertainment of incident ALS cases was based on multiple sources (ALS referral centers, hospital centres and health insurance data). Neurologists confirmed all ALS diagnoses. Exhaustiveness was estimated through capture-recapture. Aggregates were investigated in four steps: (a) geographical modelling (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) calculation), (b) analysis of the spatial distribution of incidence (Phothoff-Winttinghill's test, Global Moran's Index, Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic, Local Moran's Index), (c) classification of the level of certainty of spatial aggregates (i.e. definite cluster; probable over-incidence area; possible over-incidence area) and (d) evaluation of the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

The standardized incidence of ALS was 2.46/100,000 PYFU (95% CI 2.31-2.63, European population as reference) based on 1199 incident cases. We identified 13 areas of spatial aggregates: one cluster (stable in robustness analysis), five probable over-incidence areas (2 stable in robustness analysis) and seven possible over-incidence areas (including 4 stable areas in robustness analysis). A cluster was identified in the Rhône-Alpes region: 100 observed vs 54.07 expected cases for 2,411,514 PYFU, SIR: 1.85 (95% CI 1.50-2.25).

CONCLUSION

We report here one of the largest investigations of incidence and spatial aggregation of ALS ever performed in a western country. Using a solid methodology framework for case ascertainment and cluster analysis, we identified 13 areas that warrant further investigation.

Applied Bayesian Approaches for Research in Motor Neuron Disease

Statistical evaluation of empirical data is the basis of the modern scientific method. Available tools include various hypothesis tests for specific data structures, as well as methods that are used to quantify the uncertainty of an obtained result. Statistics are pivotal, but many misconceptions arise due to their complexity and difficult-to-acquire mathematical background. Even though most studies rely on a frequentist interpretation of statistical readouts, the application of Bayesian statistics has increased due to the availability of easy-to-use software suites and an increased outreach favouring this topic in the scientific community. Bayesian statistics take our prior knowledge together with the obtained data to express a degree of belief how likely a certain event is. Bayes factor hypothesis testing (BFHT) provides a straightforward method to evaluate multiple hypotheses at the same time and provides evidence that favors the null hypothesis or alternative hypothesis. In the present perspective, we show the merits of BFHT for three different use cases, including a clinical trial, basic research as well as a single case study. Here we show that Bayesian statistics is a viable addition of a scientist's statistical toolset, which can help to interpret data.

Geographical clusters of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and the Bradford Hill criteria

With the aim of shedding further light on the role of environmental factors in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) etiology, we hereby conducted a historical narrative review to critically appraise the published reports on ALS geographical clusters using the modern interpretation of the Bradford Hill criteria for causation. Our research hypothesis was that the more criteria were met, the greater was the evidence supporting a causal association. We found that cluster studies that met the greatest number of Bradford's Hill criteria regarded the non-protein amino acid β-N-methylamino-L-alanine (L-BMAA) and exposure to metals and minerals, but the evidence for causation was at best moderate and was poor for other environmental factors. This defective picture might be attributed not only to the methodological approach adopted by published studies, but also to the inherent difficulties in the application of Bradford Hill criteria, due to the complexity of the disease phenotype and the underlying pathogenic mechanisms.

Influence of Environment and Lifestyle on Incidence and Progress of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in A German ALS Population

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease mainly affecting upper and lower motor neurons in the brain and spinal cord. Pathogenesis of ALS is still unclear, and a multifactorial etiology is presumed. The remarkable clinical heterogeneity between different phenotypes of ALS patients suggests that environmental and lifestyle factors could play a role in onset and progression of ALS. We analyzed a cohort of 117 ALS patients and 93 controls. ALS patients and controls were compared regarding physical activity, dietary habits, smoking, residential environment, potentially toxic environmental factors and profession before symptom onset and throughout the disease course. Data were collected by a personal interview. For statistical analysis descriptive statistics, statistical tests and analysis of variance were used. ALS patients and controls did not differ regarding smoking, diet and extent of physical training. No higher frequency of toxic influences could be detected in the ALS group. ALS patients lived in rural environment considerably more often than the control persons, but this was not associated with a higher percentage of occupation in agriculture. There was also a higher percentage of university graduates in the ALS group. Patients with bulbar onset were considerably more often born in an urban environment as compared to spinal onset. Apart from education and environment, ALS phenotypes did not differ in any investigated environmental or life-style factor. The rate of disease progression was not influenced by any of the investigated environmental and life-style factors. The present study could not identify any dietary habit, smoking, physical activity, occupational factor as well as toxic influences as risk factor or protective factor for onset or progression of ALS. Living in rural environment and higher education might be associated with higher incidence of ALS.

Spatial analyses of ALS incidence in Denmark over three decades

OBJECTIVE

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease of the motor neuron with very few known risk factors. We conducted a spatial epidemiologic analysis of ALS incidence in Denmark to assess the contribution of sociodemographic determinants to geographic variation.

METHODS

We analyzed 4249 ALS cases (1982-2013), each with 100 controls matched on sex and birth year. Odds ratio and 95% confidence bands at birth and diagnosis/index locations were calculated using generalized additive models. We included a bivariate spatial smooth for location in our conditional logistic regression adjusted for socioeconomic status and marital status. We also conducted analyses adjusted for both birth and diagnosis addresses to separate location effects.

RESULTS

We observed significantly elevated ALS odds near Copenhagen for both the birth and diagnosis period analyses. Sociodemographic factors did not explain the observed patterns. When we further adjusted our spatial analyses by including both birth and diagnosis addresses, the significant area of elevated male ALS odds by birth address shifted to northwest Denmark away from Copenhagen, and there was little evidence of variation among women. Geographic variation at diagnosis differed between male and females, suggesting that patterns are not just due to regional variation in case ascertainment.

CONCLUSION

ALS incidence in Denmark is associated with both location at birth and diagnosis, suggesting that geographic variation may be due to exposures occurring at birth or closer to diagnosis, although the latter could relate to case ascertainment issues.

Spatial epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Piedmont and Aosta Valley, Italy: a population-based cluster analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The analysis of the spatial distribution of cases could give important cues on putative environmental causes of a disease. Our aim was to perform a spatial analysis of an amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) cohort from the Piedmont and Aosta Valley ALS register (PARALS) over a 20-year period.

METHODS

The address at the moment of diagnosis was considered for each ALS case. Municipalities' and census divisions' resident populations during the 1995-2014 period were obtained. A cluster analysis was performed adopting both Moran's index and the Kulldorff spatial scan statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 2702 ALS patients were identified. An address was retrieved for 2671 (99%) patients. Moran's index was -0.01 (P value 0.83), thus revealing no clusters. SaTScan identified no statistically significant clusters. When census divisions were considered, Moran's index was 0.13 (P value 0.45); SaTScan revealed one statistically significant small cluster in the province of Alessandria. Here, 0.0099 cases were expected and three cases were observed (relative risk 304.60; 95% confidence interval 109.83-845.88, P value 0.03).

DISCUSSION

Our study showed a substantial homogeneous distribution of ALS cases in Piedmont and Aosta Valley. The population-based setting and the adoption of proper statistical analyses strengthen the validity of our results. Such a finding further suggests the involvement of multiple environmental and genetic factors in ALS pathogenesis.

Pesticide exposure assessed through agricultural crop proximity and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies have raised the possibility that some pesticide compounds induce the neurodegenerative disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), though the available evidence is not entirely consistent.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based case-control study in two Italian populations to assess the extent to which residence in the vicinity of agricultural crops associated with the application of neurotoxic pesticides is a risk factor for ALS, using crop acreage in proximity to the residence as an index of exposure.

RESULTS

Based on 703 cases and 2737 controls, we computed an ALS odds ratio of 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.78-1.09) for those in proximity to agricultural land. Results were not substantially different when using alternative exposure categories or when analyzing specific crop types, with the exception of a higher risk related to exposure to citrus orchards and olive groves in Southern Italy, though based on few exposed subjects (N = 89 and 8, respectively). There was little evidence of any dose-response relation between crop proximity and ALS risk, and using long-term residence instead of current residence did not substantially change our estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Though our index of exposure is indirect and subject to considerable misclassification, our results offer little support for the hypothesis that neurotoxic pesticide exposure increases ALS risk.

The changing picture of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: lessons from European registers

Prospective population based-registers of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) have operated in Europe for over two decades, and have provided important insights into our understanding of ALS. Here, we review the benefits that population registers have brought to the understanding of the incidence, prevalence, phenotype and genetics of ALS and outline the core operating principles that underlie these registers and facilitate international collaboration. Going forward, we offer lessons learned from our collective experience of operating population-based ALS registers in Europe for over two decades, focusing on register design, maintenance, identification and management of bias and the value of cross-national harmonisation and integration.

The Epidemiology of Neuromuscular Diseases

Neuromuscular disorders as a group are linked by anatomy with significant differences in pathogenetic mechanisms, clinical expression, and time course of disease. Each neuromuscular disease is relatively uncommon, yet causes a significant burden of disease socioeconomically. Epidemiologic studies in different global regions have demonstrated certain neuromuscular diseases have increased incidence and prevalence rates over time. Understanding differences in global epidemiologic trends will aid clinical research and policies focused on prevention of disease. There is a critical need to understand the global impact of neuromuscular diseases using metrics currently established for communicable and noncommunicable diseases.

C9orf72 expansion differentially affects males with spinal onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

The C9orf72 repeat expansion has been reported as a negative prognostic factor in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We have examined the prognostic impact of the C9orf72 repeat expansion in European subgroups based on gender and site of onset.

METHODS

C9orf72 status and demographic/clinical data from 4925 patients with ALS drawn from 3 prospective ALS registers (Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands), and clinical data sets in the UK and Belgium. Flexible parametric survival models were built including known prognostic factors (age, diagnostic delay and site of onset), gender and the presence of an expanded repeat in C9orf72. These were used to explore the effects of C9orf72 on survival by gender and site of onset. Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was used to estimate HRs for results of particular importance.

RESULTS

457 (8.95%) of 4925 ALS cases carried the C9orf72 repeat expansion. A meta-analysis of C9orf72 estimated a survival HR of 1.36 (1.18 to 1.57) for those carrying the expansion. Models evaluating interaction between gender and C9orf72 repeat expansions demonstrated that the reduced survival due to C9orf72 expansion was being driven by spinal onset males (HR 1.56 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.96).

CONCLUSIONS

This study represents the largest combined analysis of the prognostic characteristics of the C9orf72 expansion. We have shown for the first time that the negative prognostic implication of this variant is driven by males with spinal onset disease, indicating a hitherto unrecognised gender-mediated effect of the variant that requires further exploration.

Can the age at onset give a clue to the pathogenesis of ALS?

Pathogenesis could play an important role in the mid- to late-life onset of symptoms in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). An analysis of the age at onset of ALS among the incident cases occurring in the population in the Health District of Ferrara, Italy, in the period 1064-2009 was carried out. Two subsequent 23-year time intervals (1964-1986 and 1987-2009) were considered. The mean age at onset (MAAO) was estimated in relation to gender, onset type and area of residence (urban or extra-urban) at disease onset among the incident cases which occurred in the two subsequent time intervals. An uneven increase in the MAAO over time was observed as it was significant only among the female cases (from 56.7 95 % CI 51.6-61.7 years to 65.4 95 % CI 61.8-69.0 years), the overall bulbar onset cases (from 58.0 95 % CI 54.0-62.1 years to 69.3 95 % CI 66.2-72.4 years), the overall cases occurring in the extra-urban population (from 54.5 95 % CI 49.0-60.1 years to 65.1 95 % CI 60.4-69.8 years) and the bulbar onset cases occurring in the extra-urban population (from 57.1 95 % CI 53.5-60.7 years to 69.6 95 % CI 66.3-73.7 years). Although the increasing age of the population combined with improvements in ALS diagnosis among the elderly may have played a part, these uneven findings among the incident cases occurring in a well-defined homogeneous population with a stable ALS incidence would seem to suggest the involvement of risk factors associated with the extra-urban environment.

Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the province of Novara, Italy, and possible role of environmental pollution

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS

Based on nationwide death certificates, a cluster of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been reported in the area of Briga (Novara province, northern Italy), known for its severe environmental contamination. We further investigated this finding, by following up with the collection of recent incidence ALS data in 2002-2012 of Novara province, also to assess the possible long-term effects of environmental pollution in that area.

RESULTS

In the whole Novara province we identified 106 ALS cases, of which 35 were from the Briga area. Incidence rates of Novara province were 3.98, 5.14 and 2.97 for the total population, males and females, respectively, compared with the Briga area where they were 4.65, 4.27 and 4.98, respectively. The ratio of observed-to-expected ALS cases in the Briga area, using incidence of the rest of Novara province as a reference, was 1.17 (95% CI 0.81-1.62), with a value of 0.83 (95% CI 0.47-1.37) in males and 1.68 (95% CI 1.03-2.60) in females.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our study did not confirm previous findings of an excess ALS incidence in an area characterised by severe environmental heavy metal pollution, and it suggests the need to interpret with caution clusters identified through mortality data.

Social deprivation and population density are not associated with small area risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

Evidence of an association between areal ALS risk and population density has been previously reported. We aim to examine ALS spatial incidence in Ireland using small areas, to compare this analysis with our previous analysis of larger areas and to examine the associations between population density, social deprivation and ALS incidence.

METHODS

Residential area social deprivation has not been previously investigated as a risk factor for ALS. Using the Irish ALS register, we included all cases of ALS diagnosed in Ireland from 1995-2013. 2006 census data was used to calculate age and sex standardised expected cases per small area. Social deprivation was assessed using the pobalHP deprivation index. Bayesian smoothing was used to calculate small area relative risk for ALS, whilst cluster analysis was performed using SaTScan. The effects of population density and social deprivation were tested in two ways: (1) as covariates in the Bayesian spatial model; (2) via post-Bayesian regression.

RESULTS

1701 cases were included. Bayesian smoothed maps of relative risk at small area resolution matched closely to our previous analysis at a larger area resolution. Cluster analysis identified two areas of significant low risk. These areas did not correlate with population density or social deprivation indices.

DISCUSSION

Two areas showing low frequency of ALS have been identified in the Republic of Ireland. These areas do not correlate with population density or residential area social deprivation, indicating that other reasons, such as genetic admixture may account for the observed findings.

Space-time distribution of the ALS incident cases by onset type in the Health District of Ferrara, Italy

OBJECTIVES

An ecological study in the resident population of the Health District (HD) of Ferrara, Italy, has been carried out to establish the distribution in space and time of the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incident cases according to the disease onset type and gender in the period 1964-2009.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The hypothesis of a uniform distribution was assumed.

RESULTS

The incident cases of spinal onset ALS and bulbar onset ALS were evenly distributed in space and time in both men and women. The spinal onset ALS incident cases distribution according to gender was significantly different from the expected in the extra-urban population (20 observed cases in men 95% Poisson confidence interval 12.22-30.89, expected cases in men 12.19; six observed cases in women 95% Poisson confidence interval 2.20-13.06, expected cases in women 13.81), whereas no difference was found in the urban population. The spinal onset ALS incidence was higher in men than in women in the extra-urban population (difference between the rates = 1.53, 95% CI associated with the difference 0.52-2.54), whereas no difference between sexes was found in the urban population.

CONCLUSIONS

The uneven distribution according to gender of the spinal onset ALS incident cases only in the extra-urban population suggests the involvement of a gender related environmental risk factor associated with the extra-urban environment. Despite some limits of the spatial analysis in the study of rare diseases, the results appear consistent with the literature data.

An exploratory spatial analysis of ALS incidence in Ireland over 17.5 years (1995-July 2013)

Introduction

There has been much interest in spatial analysis of ALS to identify potential environmental or genetically caused clusters of disease. Results to date have been inconclusive. The Irish ALS register has been recently geocoded, presenting opportunity to perform a spatial analysis on national prospectively gathered data of incident cases over an 18-year period.

Methods

1,645 cases of ALS in Ireland from January 1995 to July 2013 were identified from the Irish ALS register. 1,638 cases were successfully geocoded. Census data from four censuses: 1996, 2002, 2006 & 2011 were used to calculate an average population for the period and standardized incidence rates (SIRs) were calculated for 3,355 areas (Electoral Divisions). Bayesian conditional auto-regression was applied to produce smoothed relative risks (RR). These were then mapped for all cases, males & females separately, and those under 55 vs over 55 at diagnosis. Bayesian and linear regression were used to examine the relationship between population density and RR.

Results

Smoothed maps revealed no overall geographical pattern to ALS incidence in Ireland, although several areas of localized increased risk were identified. Stratified maps also suggested localized areas of increased RR, while dual analysis of the relationship between population density and RR of ALS yielded conflicting results, linear regression revealed a weak relationship.

Discussion

In contrast to some previous studies our analysis did not reveal any large-scale geographic patterns of incidence, yet localized areas of moderately high risk were found in both urban and rural areas. Stratified maps by age revealed a larger number of cases in younger people in the area of County Cork - possibly of genetic cause. Bayesian auto-regression of population density failed to find a significant association with risk, however weighted linear regression of post Bayesian smoothed Risk revealed an association between population density and increased ALS risk.

Epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Emilia Romagna Region (Italy): A population based study

Our objective was to describe incidence and clinical features of ALS from a prospective population-based study in Emilia Romagna Region (ERR). From 2009 onwards, a prospective registry recorded all incident cases of ALS among residents in the ERR (population, 4.4 million inhabitants), involving 17 neurological departments. For each patient, detailed demographic and clinical information was collected by caring physicians. Results showed that from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2011, 347 patients received a new diagnosis of ALS with a crude incidence rate of 2.63/100,000/year. There was micro-geographic heterogeneity throughout ERR, with higher incidence rates in the low density population (3.27/100,000) (p < 0.01). ALS patients have been more frequently employed in agriculture than the general ERR population (8.64% vs. 4.6%, p < 0.01). Clinical features were similar to those described in previous population based studies. In conclusion, we report incidence rates similar to those reported by European registries, reflecting good accuracy of our prospective study. We confirmed previous studies reporting higher incidence rates in rural areas and among agricultural workers. Although genetics has been gaining increasing importance in ALS aetiology, some epidemiological data are still unexplained. Identifying geographical areas or populations with high incidence rates can be a starting point for identifying environmental risk factors. Further studies having this specific aim can shed light on these topics.

The epidemiology of ALS: a conspiracy of genes, environment and time

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive neurodegenerative disease of motor neurons, resulting in worsening weakness of voluntary muscles until death from respiratory failure occurs after about 3 years. Although great advances have been made in our understanding of the genetic causes of ALS, the contribution of environmental factors has been more difficult to assess. Large-scale studies of the clinical patterns of ALS, individual histories preceding the onset of ALS, and the rates of ALS in different populations and groups have led to improved patient care, but have not yet revealed a replicable, definitive environmental risk factor. In this Review, we outline what is currently known of the environmental and genetic epidemiology of ALS, describe the current state of the art with respect to the different types of ALS, and explore whether ALS should be considered a single disease or a syndrome. We examine the relationship between genetic and environmental risk factors, and propose a disease model in which ALS is considered to be the result of environmental risks and time acting on a pre-existing genetic load, followed by an automatic, self-perpetuating decline to death.