Invited review: modeling within-herd transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in dairy cattle: a review

Investigating effective testing strategies for the control of Johne's disease in western Canadian cow-calf herds using an agent-based simulation model

Johne's disease is an insidious infectious disease of ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Johne's disease can have important implications for animal welfare and risks causing economic losses in affected herds due to reduced productivity, premature culling and replacement, and veterinary costs. Despite the limited accuracy of diagnostic tools, testing and culling is the primary option for controlling Johne's disease in beef herds. However, evidence to inform specific test and cull strategies is lacking. In this study, a stochastic, continuous-time agent-based model was developed to investigate Johne's disease and potential control options in a typical western Canadian cow-calf herd. The objective of this study was to compare different testing and culling scenarios that included varying the testing method and frequency as well as the number and risk profile of animals targeted for testing using the model. The relative effectiveness of each testing scenario was determined by the simulated prevalence of cattle shedding MAP after a 10-year testing period. A second objective was to compare the direct testing costs of each scenario to identify least-cost options that are the most effective at reducing within-herd disease prevalence. Whole herd testing with individual PCR at frequencies of 6 or 12 months were the most effective options for reducing disease prevalence. Scenarios that were also effective at reducing prevalence but with the lowest total testing costs included testing the whole herd with individual PCR every 24 months and testing the whole herd with pooled PCR every 12 months. The most effective method with the lowest annual testing cost per unit of prevalence reduction was individual PCR on the whole herd every 24 months. Individual PCR testing only cows that had not already been tested 4 times also ranked well when considering both final estimated prevalence at 10 years and cost per unit of gain. A more in-depth economic analysis is needed to compare the cost of testing to the cost of disease, taking into account costs of culling, replacements and impacts on calf crops, and to determine if testing is an economically attractive option for commercial cow-calf operations.

Mycobacterium paratuberculosis zoonosis is a One Health emergency

A singular pathogen has been killing animals, contaminating food and causing an array of human diseases. Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) is the cause of a fatal enteric infectious disease called Johne's (Yo'-nees), a disorder mostly studied in ruminant animals. MAP is globally impacting animal health and imparting significant economic burden to animal agriculture. Confounding the management of Johne's disease is that animals are typically infected as calves and while commonly not manifesting clinical disease for years, they shed MAP in their milk and feces in the interval. This has resulted in a "don't test, don't tell" scenario for the industry resulting in greater prevalence of Johne's disease; furthermore, because MAP survives pasteurization, the contaminated food supply provides a source of exposure to humans. Indeed, greater than 90% of dairy herds in the US have MAP-infected animals within the herd. The same bacterium, MAP, is the putative cause of Crohn's disease in humans. Countries historically isolated from importing/exporting ruminant animals and free of Johne's disease subsequently acquired the disease as a consequence of opening trade with what proved to be infected animals. Crohn's disease in those populations became a lagging indicator of MAP infection. Moreover, MAP is associated with an increasingly long list of human diseases. Despite MAP scientists entreating regulatory agencies to designate MAP a "zoonotic agent," it has not been forthcoming. One Health is a global endeavor applying an integrative health initiative that includes the environment, animals and humans; One Health asserts that stressors affecting one affects all three. Recognizing the impact MAP has on animal and human health as well as on the environment, it is time for One Health, as well as other global regulatory agencies, to recognize that MAP is causing an insidious slow-motion tsunami of zoonosis and implement public health mitigation.

Who infects whom?-Reconstructing infection chains of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in an endemically infected dairy herd by use of genomic data

Recent evidence of circulation of multiple strains within herds and mixed infections of cows marks the beginning of a rethink of our knowledge on Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) epidemiology. Strain typing opens new ways to investigate MAP transmission. This work presents a method for reconstructing infection chains in a setting of endemic Johne’s disease on a well-managed dairy farm. By linking genomic data with demographic field data, strain-specific differences in spreading patterns could be quantified for a densely sampled dairy herd. Mixed infections of dairy cows with MAP are common, and some strains spread more successfully. Infected cows remain susceptible for co-infections with other MAP genotypes. The model suggested that cows acquired infection from 1–4 other cows and spread infection to 0–17 individuals. Reconstructed infection chains supported the hypothesis that high shedding animals that started to shed at an early age and showed a progressive infection pattern represented a greater risk for spreading MAP. Transmission of more than one genotype between animals was recorded. In this farm with a good MAP control management program, adult-to-adult contact was proposed as the most important transmission route to explain the reconstructed networks. For each isolate, at least one more likely ancestor could be inferred. Our study results help to capture underlying transmission processes and to understand the challenges of tracing MAP spread within a herd. Only the combination of precise longitudinal field data and bacterial strain type information made it possible to trace infection in such detail.

Mycoplasma bovis outbreak in New Zealand cattle: An assessment of transmission trends using surveillance data

Mycoplasma bovis most likely infected New Zealand cattle in the latter half of 2015. Infection was detected in mid-2017 after which control activities were implemented. An official eradication programme commenced in mid-2018, which is ongoing. We examined farm-level tracing and surveillance data to describe the outbreak, analyse transmission trends and make inference on progress towards eradication. Results indicate that cattle movements were the primary means of spread. Although case farms were distributed throughout both islands of New Zealand, most animal movements off infected farms did not result in newly infected farms, indicating Mycoplasma bovis is not highly transmissible between farms. To describe and analyse outbreak trends, we undertook a standard descriptive outbreak investigation, including construction of an epidemic curve and calculation of estimated dissemination ratios. We then employed three empirical models-a non-linear growth model, time series model and branching process model based on time-varying effective reproduction numbers-to further analyse transmission trends and provide short-term forecasts of farm-level incidence. Our analyses suggest that Mycoplasma bovis transmission in New Zealand has declined and progress towards eradication has been made. Few incident cases were forecast for the period between 8 September and 17 December 2019. To date, no case farms with an estimated infection date assigned to this period have been detected; however, case detection is ongoing, and these results need to be interpreted cautiously considering model validation and other important contextual information on performance of the eradication programme, such as the time between infection, detection and implementation of movement controls on case farms.

Modelling transmission and control of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis within Irish dairy herds with compact spring calving

Paratuberculosis is a chronic bacterial infection of the intestine in cattle caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map). To better understand Map transmission in Irish dairy herds, we adapted the French stochastic individual-based epidemiological simulation model to account for seasonal herd demographics. We investigated the probability of Map persistence over time, the within-herd prevalence over time, and the relative importance of transmission pathways, and assessed the relative effectiveness of test-and-cull control strategies. We investigated the impact on model outputs of calf separation from cows (calves grazed on pasture adjacent to cows vs. were completely separated from cows) and test-and-cull. Test-and-cull scenarios consisted of highly test-positive cows culled within 13 or 4 weeks after detection, and calf born to highly test-positive cows kept vs removed. We simulated a typical Irish dairy herd with on average 82 lactating cows, 112 animals in total. Each scenario was iterated 1000 times to adjust variation caused by stochasticity. Map was introduced in the fully naive herd through the purchase of a moderately infectious primiparous cow. Infection was considered to persist when at least one infected animal remained in the herd or when Map was present in the environment. The probability of Map persistence 15 years after introduction ranged between 32.2-42.7 % when calves and cows had contact on pasture, and between 18.9-29.4 % when calves and cows were separated on pasture. The most effective control strategy was to cull highly test-positive cows within four weeks of detection (absolute 10 % lower persistence compared to scenarios without control). Removing the offspring of highly test-positive dams did not affect either Map persistence or within-herd prevalence of Map. Mean prevalence 15 years after Map introduction was highest (63.5 %) when calves and cows had contact on pasture. Mean prevalence was 15 % lower (absolute decrease) when cows were culled within 13 weeks of a high test-positive result, and 28 % lower when culled within 4 weeks. Around calving, the infection rate was high, with calves being infected in utero or via the general indoor environment (most important transmission routes). For the remainder of the year, the incidence rate was relatively low with most calves being infected on pasture when in contact with cows. Testing and culling was an effective control strategy when it was used prior to the calving period to minimize the number of highly infectious cows present when calves were born.

The EDN2 rs110287192 gene polymorphism is associated with paratuberculosis susceptibility in multibreed cattle population

Paratuberculosis (pTB), also known as Johne's disease (JD), is a contagious, chronic, and granulomatous inflammatory disease of the intestines of ruminants which is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection, resulting in billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide. Since, currently, no effective cure is available for MAP infection, it is important to explore the genetic variants that affect the host MAP susceptibility. The aim of this study was to analyze a potential association between EDN2 synonymous gene mutations (rs110287192, rs109651404 and rs136707411), that modifies susceptibility to pTB. EDN2 rs110287192, rs109651404 and rs136707411 mutations were genotyped in 68 infected and 753 healthy animals from East Anatolian Red crossbred, Anatolian Black crossbred and Holstein breed cattle by using Custom TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assays. For pTB status, serum antibody levels S/P ≥ 1.0 were assessed in carriers of the different EDN2 genotypes. EDN2 rs110287192 mutation showed a significant association with bovine pTB (adj. p < 0.05). For rs110287192 locus, the odd ratios for GG and TG genotypes versus TT genotypes were 1.73; (95% CI = 0.34–8.59) and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.12–2.37) respectively, which indicated that proportion of TG heterozygotes were significantly higher in control animals as compared to pTB animals. On the other hand, while rs136707411 mutation showed a suggestive association with pTB status in the examined cattle population (nominal p < 0.05); no association was detected between rs109651404 genotypes and pTB status. Selecting animals against rs110287192-GG genotype may decrease the risk of pTB in cattle of the Bos taurus taurus subspecies.

Reviewing age-structured epidemiological models of cattle diseases tailored to support management decisions: Guidance for the future

Mechanistic simulation models are being increasingly used as tools to assist with animal health decision-making in the cattle sector. We reviewed scientific literature for studies reporting age-structured cattle management models in application to infectious diseases. Our emphasis was on papers dedicated to support decision making in the field. In this systematic review we considered 1290 manuscripts and identified 76 eligible studies. These are based on 52 individual models from 10 countries addressing 9 different pathogens. We provide an overview of these models and present in detail their theoretical foundations, design paradigms and incorporated processes. We propose a structure of the characteristics of cattle disease models using three main features: [1] biological processes, [2] farming-related processes and [3] pathogen-related processes. It would be of benefit if future cattle disease models were to follow this structure to facilitate science communication and to allow increased model transparency.

Mastitis risk effect on the economic consequences of paratuberculosis control in dairy cattle: A stochastic modeling study

The benefits and efficacy of control programs for herds infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) have been investigated under various contexts. However, most previous research investigated paratuberculosis control programs in isolation, without modeling the potential association with other dairy diseases. This paper evaluated the benefits of MAP control programs when the herd is also affected by mastitis, a common disease causing the largest losses in dairy production. The effect of typically suggested MAP controls were estimated under the assumption that MAP infection increased the rate of clinical mastitis. We evaluated one hundred twenty three control strategies comprising various combinations of testing, culling, and hygiene, and found that the association of paratuberculosis with mastitis alters the ranking of specific MAP control programs, but only slightly alters the cost-benefit difference of particular MAP control components, as measured by the distribution of net present value of a representative U.S. dairy operation. In particular, although testing and culling for MAP resulted in a reduction in MAP incidence, that control led to lower net present value (NPV) per cow. When testing was used, ELISA was more economically beneficial than alternative testing regimes, especially if mastitis was explicitly modeled as more likely in MAP-infected animals, but ELISA testing was only significantly associated with higher NPV if mastitis was not included in the model at all. Additional hygiene was associated with a lower NPV per cow, although it lowered MAP prevalence. Overall, the addition of an increased risk of mastitis in MAP-infected animals did not change model recommendations as much as failing to consider.

Quantifying transmission of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis among group-housed dairy calves

Johne’s disease (JD) is a chronic enteritis caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), with control primarily aimed at preventing new infections among calves. The aim of the current study was to quantify calf-to-calf transmission of MAP among penmates in an experimental trial. Newborn Holstein bull calves (n = 32) were allocated into pens of 4, with 2 inoculated (IN) calves and 2 calves that were contact exposed (CE). Calves were group-housed for 3 months, with frequent collection of fecal and blood samples and tissue collection after euthanasia. The basic reproduction ratio (R₀) was estimated using a final size (FS) model with a susceptible-infected model, based on INF-γ ELISA and tissue culture followed by qPCR. In addition, the transmission rate parameter (β) for new shedding events was estimated using a general linearized method (GLM) model with a susceptible-infected-susceptible model based on culture, followed by qPCR, of fecal samples collected during group housing. The R₀ was derived for IN and CE calves separately, due to a difference in susceptibility, as well as differences in duration of shedding events. Based on the FS model, interferon-γ results from blood samples resulted in a R₀^IG of 0.90 (0.24, 2.59) and tissue culture resulted in a R₀^T of 1.36 (0.45, 3.94). Based on the GLM model, the R₀ for CE calves to begin shedding (R₀^CE) was 3.24 (1.14, 7.41). We concluded that transmission of MAP infection between penmates occurred and that transmission among calves may be an important cause of persistent MAP infection on dairy farms that is currently uncontrolled for in current JD control programs.

Control of paratuberculosis: who, why and how. A review of 48 countries

Paratuberculosis, a chronic disease affecting ruminant livestock, is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). It has direct and indirect economic costs, impacts animal welfare and arouses public health concerns. In a survey of 48 countries we found paratuberculosis to be very common in livestock. In about half the countries more than 20% of herds and flocks were infected with MAP. Most countries had large ruminant populations (millions), several types of farmed ruminants, multiple husbandry systems and tens of thousands of individual farms, creating challenges for disease control. In addition, numerous species of free-living wildlife were infected. Paratuberculosis was notifiable in most countries, but formal control programs were present in only 22 countries. Generally, these were the more highly developed countries with advanced veterinary services. Of the countries without a formal control program for paratuberculosis, 76% were in South and Central America, Asia and Africa while 20% were in Europe. Control programs were justified most commonly on animal health grounds, but protecting market access and public health were other factors. Prevalence reduction was the major objective in most countries, but Norway and Sweden aimed to eradicate the disease, so surveillance and response were their major objectives. Government funding was involved in about two thirds of countries, but operations tended to be funded by farmers and their organizations and not by government alone. The majority of countries (60%) had voluntary control programs. Generally, programs were supported by incentives for joining, financial compensation and/or penalties for non-participation. Performance indicators, structure, leadership, practices and tools used in control programs are also presented. Securing funding for long-term control activities was a widespread problem. Control programs were reported to be successful in 16 (73%) of the 22 countries. Recommendations are made for future control programs, including a primary goal of establishing an international code for paratuberculosis, leading to universal acknowledgment of the principles and methods of control in relation to endemic and transboundary disease. An holistic approach across all ruminant livestock industries and long-term commitment is required for control of paratuberculosis.

A review of paratuberculosis in dairy herds - Part 2: On-farm control

Bovine paratuberculosis is a chronic infectious disease of cattle, caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). This is the second in a two-part review of the epidemiology and control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds. Several negative production effects associated with MAP infection have been described, but perhaps the most significant concern in relation to the importance of paratuberculosis as a disease of dairy cattle is the potential link with Crohn's disease in humans. Milk is considered a potential transmission route to humans and it is recognised that pasteurisation does not necessarily eliminate the bacterium. Therefore, control must also include reduction of the levels of MAP in bulk milk supplied from dairy farms. There is little field evidence in support of specific control measures, although several studies seem to show a decreased prevalence associated with the implementation of a combined management and test-and-cull programme. Improvements in vaccination efficacy and reduced tuberculosis (TB) test interference may increase uptake of vaccination as a control option. Farmer adoption of best practice recommendations at farm level for the control of endemic diseases can be challenging. Improved understanding of farmer behaviour and decision making will help in developing improved communication strategies which may be more efficacious in affecting behavioural change on farm.

A review of paratuberculosis in dairy herds - Part 1: Epidemiology

Bovine paratuberculosis is a chronic infectious disease of cattle caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). This is the first in a two-part review of the epidemiology and control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds. Paratuberculosis was originally described in 1895 and is now considered endemic among farmed cattle worldwide. MAP has been isolated from a wide range of non-ruminant wildlife as well as humans and non-human primates. In dairy herds, MAP is assumed to be introduced predominantly through the purchase of infected stock with additional factors modulating the risk of persistence or fade-out once an infected animal is introduced. Faecal shedding may vary widely between individuals and recent modelling work has shed some light on the role of super-shedding animals in the transmission of MAP within herds. Recent experimental work has revisited many of the assumptions around age susceptibility, faecal shedding in calves and calf-to-calf transmission. Further efforts to elucidate the relative contributions of different transmission routes to the dissemination of infection in endemic herds will aid in the prioritisation of efforts for control on farm.

A data-driven individual-based model of infectious disease in livestock operation: A validation study for paratuberculosis

Chronic livestock diseases cause large financial loss and affect animal health and welfare. Controlling these diseases mostly requires precise information on both individual animal and population dynamics to inform the farmer’s decisions, but even successful control programmes do by no means assure elimination. Mathematical models provide opportunities to test different control and elimination options rather than implementing them in real herds, but these models require robust parameter estimation and validation. Fitting these models to data is a difficult task due to heterogeneities in livestock processes. In this paper, we develop an infectious disease modeling framework for a livestock disease (paratuberculosis) that is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Infection with MAP leads to reduced milk production, pregnancy rates, and slaughter value and increased culling rates in cattle and causes significant economic losses to the dairy industry. These economic effects are particularly important motivations in the control and elimination of MAP. In this framework, an individual-based model (IBM) of a dairy herd was built and MAP infection dynamics was integrated. Once the model produced realistic dynamics of MAP infection, we implemented an evaluation method by fitting it to data from three dairy herds from the Northeast region of the US. The model fitting exercises used least-squares and parameter space searching methods to obtain the best-fitted values of selected parameters. The best set of parameters were used to model the effect of interventions. The results show that the presented model can complement real herd statistics where the intervention strategies suggest a reduction in MAP prevalence without elimination. Overall, this research not only provides a complete model for MAP infection dynamics in a dairy herd but also offers a method for estimating parameters by fitting IBM models.

Control measures to prevent the increase of paratuberculosis prevalence in dairy cattle herds: an individual-based modelling approach

Paratuberculosis, a gastrointestinal disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), can lead to severe economic losses in dairy cattle farms. Current measures are aimed at controlling prevalence in infected herds, but are not fully effective. Our objective was to determine the most effective control measures to prevent an increase in adult prevalence in infected herds. We developed a new individual-based model coupling population and infection dynamics. Animals are characterized by their age (6 groups) and health state (6 states). The model accounted for all transmission routes and two control measures used in the field, namely reduced calf exposure to adult faeces and test-and-cull. We defined three herd statuses (low, moderate, and high) based on realistic prevalence ranges observed in French dairy cattle herds. We showed that the most relevant control measures depend on prevalence. Calf management and test-and-cull both were required to maximize the probability of stabilizing herd status. A reduced calf exposure was confirmed to be the most influential measure, followed by test frequency and the proportion of infected animals that were detected and culled. Culling of detected high shedders could be delayed for up to 3 months without impacting prevalence. Management of low prevalence herds is a priority since the probability of status stabilization is high after implementing prioritized measures. On the contrary, an increase in prevalence was particularly difficult to prevent in moderate prevalence herds, and was only feasible in high prevalence herds if the level of control was high.

Environmental sample characteristics and herd size associated with decreased herd-level prevalence of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis

Environmental sampling is an effective method for estimating regional dairy herd-level prevalence of infection with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP). However, factors affecting prevalence estimates based on environmental samples are not known. The objective was to determine whether odds of environmental samples collected on farm changed culture status over 2 sampling times and if changes were specific for location and type of housing (freestall, tiestall, or loose housing), the sample collected (i.e., manure of lactating, dry, or sick cows; namely, cow group), and effects of herd size. In 2012-2013 [sampling 1 (S1)] and 2015-2017 [sampling 2 (S2)], 6 environmental samples were collected and cultured for MAP from all 167 (99%) and 160 (95%) farms, respectively, in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. Only the 148 dairy farms sampled at both sampling periods were included in the analysis. A mixed effects logistic regression was used to determine whether differences between sampling periods were associated with herd size and sample characteristics (cow group contributing to environmental sample, type of housing, and location). In S1 and S2, 55 and 34%, respectively, of farms had at least 1 MAP-positive environmental sample. Correcting for sensitivity of environmental sampling, estimated true prevalence in S1 and S2 was 79 and 48%, respectively. Herds with >200 cows were more often MAP-positive than herds with <51 cows in both S1 and S2. The percentage of positive samples was lower in S2 compared with S1 for all sampled areas, cow groups contributing to samples, types of housing where samples were collected, and herd size categories. However, samples collected from dry cow areas had the largest decrease in MAP-positive samples in S2 compared with all other cow group samples. Herds that were MAP-negative in S1 with a herd size 51 to 100 or 101 to 150 were more likely to stay MAP-negative, whereas MAP-positive herds with >200 cows more frequently stayed MAP-positive. No difference was observed in the odds of a sample being MAP-positive among housing types or location of sample collection in both sample periods. Of all farms sampled, 104 (70%) did not change status from S1 to S2. In conclusion, when herd-level MAP prevalence decreased over the 3-yr interval, the change in prevalence differed among herd size categories and was larger in samples from dry cow areas. It was, however, not specific to other characteristics of environmental samples collected.

Evaluating the impact of transmission mode, calibration level and farmer compliance in simulation models of paratuberculosis in dairy herds

Simulation models can predict the outcome of different strategies for the control and eradication of paratuberculosis (PTB) in dairy herds. Two main transmission modes have previously been used to simulate the spread of PTB: direct (contact between animals) and indirect (through the environment). In addition, previous models were calibrated to either low or high within-herd prevalence levels, which we refer to as normal and low hygiene levels, respectively. We simulated both direct and indirect transmission with the same model in both normal and low hygiene level scenarios. The effectiveness of a test-and-cull strategy was dependent on the calibration level of the simulation model, and eradication occurred less frequently with the more biologically plausible indirect transmission mode. The results were compared to within-herd prevalence records from 314 dairy herds. The prevalence in 50% of the herds varied less than 0.9% per year on average, and less than 4% in 90% of the herds. We therefore conclude that the normal-hygiene scenario best describes most dairy herds in Denmark. Finally, we simulated different levels of farmer compliance with a test-and-cull strategy and found that a 60% compliance level was not sufficient to reach eradication within 10 years.

Evaluation of fecal shedding and antibody response in dairy cattle infected with paratuberculosis using national surveillance data in Japan

Paratuberculosis or Johne's disease (JD), is a chronic infectious disease causing intractable diarrhea in cattle, which leads to less productivity, such as decreased milk yield, and lower daily weight gain. As a control measure against JD in cattle, national serological surveillance has been conducted in Japan since 1998. To conduct modeling studies that are useful to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures against JD, reliable parameter values, such as length of time from infection to the start of fecal shedding or antibody expression, are especially important. These parameters in the Japanese cattle population are assumed to be different from those in other countries with a higher prevalence of JD or in experimental infection settings; therefore, they must be estimated for the cattle population in Japan. Data from national surveillance conducted in Tokachi District, Hokkaido Prefecture, were used for this study. Using data from JD diagnostic tests for all cattle in Tokachi District between 1998 and 2014, all testing histories for infected animals were estimated as the number of tested cattle and positive cattle at each age of month for both fecal and antibody tests. A deterministic mathematical model for JD development, from infection to fecal shedding and antibody expression in infected cattle, was constructed to obtain the probability of testing positive when applied to both fecal and antibody tests at a given age. Likelihood was obtained from these estimated test results and best values for parameters were obtained using the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo method. Fifty-five percent of infected cattle were projected to have a transient shedding period, which was estimated to start 12 months after infection and last for 4 months. Persistent shedding was projected to occur in all infected cattle, and estimated to begin 7-84 months from infection. Following persistent shedding, antibody expression was estimated to start 7 months later. These values are useful for developing models to evaluate the status of JD infection and the effectiveness of control measures in the Japanese cattle population.

Incidence of fecal excretion of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in dairy cows before and after the enrolment in the Québec voluntary program

Paratuberculosis is a chronic and contagious enteric disease of ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). This disease of worldwide distribution is responsible for significant economic losses and the bacteria itself has been linked to human Crohn's disease. Paratuberculosis control programs focus on reducing MAP transmission by implementing better management practices that target infection routes. In Québec, a Voluntary Paratuberculosis Prevention and Control Program (QVPPCP) was launched in 2007. The objectives of this prospective cohort study were threefold. The first was to describe the changes in the incidence of fecal excretion of MAP in cows born before and after farm enrolment in the QVPPCP. The second was to estimate the impact of the risk of within-herd transmission of MAP (measured by the risk assessment score (RAS)) on the incidence of fecal excretion of MAP. And the third was to evaluate the impact of calf rearing practices on the incidence of fecal excretion of MAP. Eighteen MAP-positive herds were visited annually from 2011 to 2015. At each visit, individual fecal samples from all adult cows were collected. MAP was cultured using liquid media and an automated system. A risk assessment questionnaire was completed upon enrolment in the QVPPCP and at each visit. The RAS of the farm was attributed to each cow according to its birthdate. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) for the exposure variables. Herd clustering was taken into account using robust standard errors. A total of 2158 cows were included (cohort born before n=919; cohort born after n=1239). The incidence and hazard of fecal excretion were significantly lower for the cohort-after than the cohort-before (incidence rate ratio=0.38; 95% CI: 0.18-0.78 and HR=0.48; 95% CI: 0.23-0.98). The HR of fecal excretion for cows exposed to a high RAS was 2.20 times (95% CI: 1.21-3.99) that of cows exposed to a low RAS. Poor calving cow hygiene (HR=3.41; 95% CI: 1.40-8.31) and contact between pre-weaned heifers and adult cows or their feces were significantly associated with an increased hazard of fecal excretion of MAP (HR=2.66; 95% CI: 1.08-6.56). Our results suggest that enrolment in the QVPPCP reduces the risk of MAP fecal excretion. They support the hypothesis that contact between calves and adult cows or their feces increases MAP transmission. The incidence results also suggest that MAP prevalence could be reduced to low levels regardless of initial MAP prevalence.

Which phenotypic traits of resistance should be improved in cattle to control paratuberculosis dynamics in a dairy herd: a modelling approach

Paratuberculosis is a worldwide disease causing production losses in dairy cattle herds. Variability of cattle response to exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) has been highlighted. Such individual variability could influence Map spread at larger scale. Cattle resistance to paratuberculosis has been shown to be heritable, suggesting genetic selection could enhance disease control. Our objective was to identify which phenotypic traits characterising the individual course of infection influence Map spread in a dairy cattle herd. We used a stochastic mechanistic model. Resistance consisted in the ability to prevent infection and the ability to cope with infection. We assessed the effect of varying (alone and combined) fourteen phenotypic traits characterising the infection course. We calculated four model outputs 25 years after Map introduction in a naïve herd: cumulative incidence, infection persistence, and prevalence of infected and affected animals. A cluster analysis identified influential phenotypes of cattle resistance. An ANOVA quantified the contribution of traits to model output variance. Four phenotypic traits strongly influenced Map spread: the decay in susceptibility with age (the most effective), the quantity of Map shed in faeces by high shedders, the incubation period duration, and the required infectious dose. Interactions contributed up to 12% of output variance, highlighting the expected added-value of improving several traits simultaneously. Combinations of the four most influential traits decreased incidence to less than one newly infected animal per year in most scenarios. Future genetic selection should aim at improving simultaneously the most influential traits to reduce Map spread in cattle populations.

Knowledge gaps that hamper prevention and control of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection

In the last decades, many regional and country-wide control programmes for Johne's disease (JD) were developed due to associated economic losses, or because of a possible association with Crohn's disease. These control programmes were often not successful, partly because management protocols were not followed, including the introduction of infected replacement cattle, because tests to identify infected animals were unreliable, and uptake by farmers was not high enough because of a perceived low return on investment. In the absence of a cure or effective commercial vaccines, control of JD is currently primarily based on herd management strategies to avoid infection of cattle and restrict within-farm and farm-to-farm transmission. Although JD control programmes have been implemented in most developed countries, lessons learned from JD prevention and control programmes are underreported. Also, JD control programmes are typically evaluated in a limited number of herds and the duration of the study is less than 5 year, making it difficult to adequately assess the efficacy of control programmes. In this manuscript, we identify the most important gaps in knowledge hampering JD prevention and control programmes, including vaccination and diagnostics. Secondly, we discuss directions that research should take to address those knowledge gaps.

Modeling environmental transmission of MAP infection in dairy cows

Johne's disease is caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis(MAP). It is a chronic, progressive, and inflammatory disease which has a long incubation period. One main problem with the disease is the reduction of milk production in infected dairy cows. In our study we develop a system of ordinary differential equations to describe the dynamics of MAP infection in a dairy farm. This model includes the progression of the disease and the age structure of the cows. To investigate the effect of persistence of this bacteria on the farm on transmission in our model, we include environmental compartments, representing the pathogen input in an explicit way. The effect of indirect transmission from the bacteria in the environment and the culling of high-shedding adults can be seen in the numerical simulations. Since culling usually only happens once a year, we include a novel feature in the simulations with a discrete action of removing high-shedding adults once a year. We conclude that with culling of high shedders even at a high rate, the infection will persist in the modeled farm setting.

Economic consequences of paratuberculosis control in dairy cattle: A stochastic modeling study

The cost of paratuberculosis to dairy herds, through decreased milk production, early culling, and poor reproductive performance, has been well-studied. The benefit of control programs, however, has been debated. A recent stochastic compartmental model for paratuberculosis transmission in US dairy herds was modified to predict herd net present value (NPV) over 25 years in herds of 100 and 1000 dairy cattle with endemic paratuberculosis at initial prevalence of 10% and 20%. Control programs were designed by combining 5 tests (none, fecal culture, ELISA, PCR, or calf testing), 3 test-related culling strategies (all test-positive, high-positive, or repeated positive), 2 test frequencies (annual and biannual), 3 hygiene levels (standard, moderate, or improved), and 2 cessation decisions (testing ceased after 5 negative whole-herd tests or testing continued). Stochastic dominance was determined for each herd scenario; no control program was fully dominant for maximizing herd NPV in any scenario. Use of the ELISA test was generally preferred in all scenarios, but no paratuberculosis control was highly preferred for the small herd with 10% initial prevalence and was frequently preferred in other herd scenarios. Based on their effect on paratuberculosis alone, hygiene improvements were not found to be as cost-effective as test-and-cull strategies in most circumstances. Global sensitivity analysis found that economic parameters, such as the price of milk, had more influence on NPV than control program-related parameters. We conclude that paratuberculosis control can be cost effective, and multiple control programs can be applied for equivalent economic results.

The Potential Role of Direct and Indirect Contacts on Infection Spread in Dairy Farm Networks

Animals' exchanges are considered the most effective route of between-farm infectious disease transmission. However, despite being often overlooked, the infection spread due to contaminated equipment, vehicles, or personnel proved to be important for several livestock epidemics. This study investigated the role of indirect contacts in a potential infection spread in the dairy farm network of the Province of Parma (Northern Italy). We built between-farm contact networks using data on cattle exchange (direct contacts), and on-farm visits by veterinarians (indirect contacts). We compared the features of the contact structures by using measures on static and temporal networks. We assessed the disease spreading potential of the direct and indirect network structures in the farm system by using data on the infection state of farms by paratuberculosis. Direct and indirect networks showed non-trivial differences with respect to connectivity, contact distribution, and super-spreaders identification. Furthermore, our analyses on paratuberculosis data suggested that the contributions of direct and indirect contacts on diseases spread are apparent at different spatial scales. Our results highlighted the potential role of indirect contacts in between-farm disease spread and underlined the need for a deeper understanding of these contacts to develop better strategies for prevention of livestock epidemics.

Relevance of Indirect Transmission for Wildlife Disease Surveillance

Epidemiological models of infectious diseases are essential tools in support of risk assessment, surveillance design, and contingency planning in public and animal health. Direct pathogen transmission from host to host is an essential process of each host–pathogen system and respective epidemiological modeling concepts. It is widely accepted that numerous diseases involve indirect transmission (IT) through pathogens shed by infectious hosts to their environment. However, epidemiological models largely do not represent pathogen persistence outside the host explicitly. We hypothesize that this simplification might bias management-related model predictions for disease agents that can persist outside their host for a certain time span. We adapted an individual-based, spatially explicit epidemiological model that can mimic both transmission processes. One version explicitly simulated indirect pathogen transmission through a contaminated environment. The second version simulated direct host-to-host transmission only. We aligned the model variants by the transmission potential per infectious host (i.e., basic reproductive number R₀) and the spatial transmission kernel of the infection to allow unbiased comparison of predictions. The quantitative model results are provided for the example of surveillance plans for early detection of foot-and-mouth disease in wild boar, a social host. We applied systematic sampling strategies on the serological status of randomly selected host individuals in both models. We compared between the model variants the time to detection and the area affected prior to detection, measures that strongly influence mitigation costs. Moreover, the ideal sampling strategy to detect the infection in a given time frame was compared between both models. We found the simplified, direct transmission model to underestimate necessary sample size by up to one order of magnitude but to overestimate the area put under control measures. Thus, the model predictions underestimated surveillance efforts but overestimated mitigation costs. We discuss parameterization of IT models and related knowledge gaps. We conclude that the explicit incorporation of IT mechanisms in epidemiological modeling may reward by adapting surveillance and mitigation efforts.

Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle

We describe a new mechanistic bioeconomic model for simulating the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build up in five separate areas of the farm; in utero infection; infection via colostrum and waste milk, and it allows for realistic culling (i.e., due to other diseases) by including a ranking system. We calibrated the model using a unique dataset from Denmark, including 102 random farms with no control actions against spread of MAP. Likewise, four control actions recommended in the Danish MAP control program were implemented in the model based on reported management strategies in Danish dairy herds in a MAP control scheme. We tested the model parameterization in a sensitivity analysis. We show that a test-and-cull strategy is on average the most cost-effective solution to decrease the prevalence and increase the total net revenue on a farm with low hygiene, but not more profitable than no control strategy on a farm with average hygiene. Although it is possible to eradicate MAP from the farm by implementing all four control actions from the Danish MAP control program, it was not economically attractive since the expenses for the control actions outweigh the benefits. Furthermore, the three most popular control actions against the spread of MAP on the farm were found to be costly and inefficient in lowering the prevalence when used independently.

A new compartmental model of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection dynamics in cattle

Models of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), a chronic infectious agent of cattle, are used to identify effective control programs. However, new biological findings show that adult infections occur and that infected animals can be separated into 2 paths: animals that will become high-shedding and, eventually, experience clinical disease (high-path); and animals that will shed only small quantities of MAP and will remain subclinical (low-path). Longitudinal data analysis found that high-path animals progress more quickly than previously believed. A standard model of MAP transmission in dairy herds was modified to include adult low-path infections and 2 infection pathways for infected calves. Analysis of this model showed that adult infection may play an important role in MAP dynamics on a dairy farm, and that the increased rate of progression for high-path animals influences both the prevalence and the persistence of MAP on a dairy farm. This new model will be able to determine the effectiveness of MAP control programs more accurately than previous models.

Modelling of paratuberculosis spread between dairy cattle farms at a regional scale

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) causes Johne's disease, with large economic consequences for dairy cattle producers worldwide. Map spread between farms is mainly due to animal movements. Locally, herd size and management are expected to influence infection dynamics. To provide a better understanding of Map spread between dairy cattle farms at a regional scale, we describe the first spatio-temporal model accounting simultaneously for population and infection dynamics and indirect local transmission within dairy farms, and between-farm transmission through animal trade. This model is applied to Brittany, a French region characterized by a high density of dairy cattle, based on data on animal trade, herd size and farm management (birth, death, renewal, and culling) from 2005 to 2013 for 12,857 dairy farms. In all simulated scenarios, Map infection highly persisted at the metapopulation scale. The characteristics of initially infected farms strongly impacted the regional Map spread. Network-related features of incident farms influenced their ability to contaminate disease-free farms. At the herd level, we highlighted a balanced effect of the number of animals purchased: when large, it led to a high probability of farm infection but to a low persistence. This effect was reduced when prevalence in initially infected farms increased. Implications of our findings in the current enzootic situation are that the risk of infection quickly becomes high for farms buying more than three animals per year. Even in regions with a low proportion of infected farms, Map spread will not fade out spontaneously without the use of effective control strategies.

Evaluation of testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis

As part of a broader control strategy within herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), individual animal testing is generally conducted to identify infected animals for action, usually culling. Opportunities are now available to quantitatively compare different testing strategies (combinations of tests) in known infected herds. This study evaluates the effectiveness, cost, and cost-effectiveness of different testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be MAP infected. A model was developed, taking account of both within-herd infection dynamics and test performance, to simulate the use of different tests at a single round of testing in a known infected herd. Model inputs included the number of animals at different stages of infection, the sensitivity and specificity of each test, and the costs of testing and culling. Testing strategies included either milk or serum ELISA alone or with fecal culture in series. Model outputs included effectiveness (detection fraction, the proportion of truly infected animals in the herd that are successfully detected by the testing strategy), cost, and cost-effectiveness (testing cost per true positive detected, total cost per true positive detected). Several assumptions were made: MAP was introduced with a single animal and no management interventions were implemented to limit within-herd transmission of MAP before this test. In medium herds, between 7 and 26% of infected animals are detected at a single round of testing, the former using the milk ELISA and fecal culture in series 5 yr after MAP introduction and the latter using fecal culture alone 15 yr after MAP introduction. The combined costs of testing and culling at a single round of testing increases with time since introduction of MAP infection, with culling costs being much greater than testing costs. The cost-effectiveness of testing varied by testing strategy. It was also greater at 5 yr, compared with 10 or 15 yr, since MAP introduction, highlighting the importance of early detection. Future work is needed to evaluate these testing strategies in subsequent rounds of testing as well as accounting for different herd dynamics and different levels of herd biocontainment.

Agent-based model for Johne's disease dynamics in a dairy herd

Johne’s disease is an infectious gastrointestinal disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis that causes diarrhea, emaciation, decreased milk production and eventually death. The disease is transmitted in utero and via milk and colostrums to calves, and fecal-orally to all age classes. Financial losses due to the disease are estimated to be over $200 million in the US dairy industry. The goal of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of control measures based on diagnosis with a sensitive ELISA, EVELISA. An agent-based, discrete time model was developed to simulate Johne’s disease dynamics in a US dairy herd. Spatial aspects of disease transmission were taken into account by using six spatial compartments. The effects on disease prevalence were studied with and without transmission routes included in the model. Further, using the model, cost effectiveness of ELISA-based Johne’s disease control was evaluated. Using the parameters we collected and assumed, our model showed the initial prevalence of Johne’s disease (33.1 ± 0.2%) in the farm increased to 87.7 ± 1.7% in a 10 year-simulation. When ELISA-based control measures were included in the simulation, the increase in prevalence was significantly slowed down, especially when EVELISA was used. However, the level of the prevalence was still higher than the initial level after 10 year simulation even with the ELISA-based diagnostic intervention. The prevalence was further reduced when quarterly ELISA testing was included. The cost analysis showed that the quarterly ELISA and EVELISA testing could bring $44.8 and $51.5/animal/year more revenues, respectively, to a dairy farm.

Back to the real world: connecting models with data

Mathematical models for infectious disease are often used to improve our understanding of infection biology or to evaluate the potential efficacy of intervention programs. Here, we develop a mathematical model that aims to describe infection dynamics of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). The model was developed using current knowledge of infection biology and also includes some components of MAP infection dynamics that are currently still hypothetical. The objective was to show methods for parameter estimation of state transition models and to connect simulation models with detailed real life data. Thereby making model predictions and results of simulations more reflective and predictive of real world situations. Longitudinal field data from a large observational study are used to estimate parameter values. It is shown that precise data, including molecular diagnostics on the obtained MAP strains, results in more precise and realistic parameter estimates. It is argued that modeling of infection disease dynamics is of great value to understand the patho-biology, epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The quality of conclusions drawn from model studies depend on two key issues; first, the quality of biology that has gone in the process of developing the model structure; second the quality of the data that go into the estimation of the parameters and the quality and quantity of the data that go into model validation. The more real world data that are used in the model building process, the more likely that modeling studies will provide novel, innovative and valid results.

Shedding patterns of dairy calves experimentally infected with Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis

Although substantial fecal shedding is expected to start years after initial infection with Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), the potential for shedding by calves and therefore calf-to-calf transmission is underestimated in current Johne’s disease (JD) control programs. Shedding patterns were determined in this study in experimentally infected calves. Fifty calves were challenged at 2 weeks or at 3, 6, 9 or 12 months of age (6 calves served as a control group). In each age group, 5 calves were inoculated with a low and 5 with a high dose of MAP. Fecal culture was performed monthly until necropsy at 17 months of age. Overall, 61% of inoculated calves, representing all age and dose groups, shed MAP in their feces at least once during the follow-up period. Although most calves shed sporadically, 4 calves in the 2-week and 3-month high dose groups shed at every sampling. In general, shedding peaked 2 months after inoculation. Calves inoculated at 2 weeks or 3 months with a high dose of MAP shed more frequently than those inoculated with a low dose. Calves shedding frequently had more culture-positive tissue locations and more severe gross and histological lesions at necropsy. In conclusion, calves inoculated up to 1 year of age shed MAP in their feces shortly after inoculation. Consequently, there is potential for MAP transfer between calves (especially if they are group housed) and therefore, JD control programs should consider young calves as a source of infection.

MODELING FOR COST ANALYSIS OF JOHNE'S DISEASE CONTROL BASED ON EVELISA TESTING

Use of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is recommended for control of Johne's disease (JD) in the cattle industry. A recent report showed that prevalence of JD in dairy farms could be reduced by applying an ELISA-based control strategy, even though the sensitivity of the current ELISA has been reported to be lower than 30%. We previously developed a more sensitive ELISA test (EVELISA; Ethanol Vortex ELISA) for diagnosis of JD and, in this report, aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of the EVELISA in JD control compared to that of a current ELISA test. For simulation of population dynamics, we developed a deterministic, discrete-time mathematical model incorporating contact structure, possibility of adult infection and the concept of order of events. In our model, the number of animals infected with the causative agent of JD, Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), increases in a 10-year simulation if no JD control measure is applied. When test results of ELISA or EVELISA are used for JD control, the increase in MAP-infected animals is less significant. According to our model, EVELISA-based control measures increase the annual per capita revenue of US dairy farms when compared to no JD control and ELISA-based JD control, respectively.

Evaluation [corrected] of the "Iceberg Phenomenon" in Johne's disease through mathematical modelling

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic, enteric disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Disease progression follows four distinct stages: silent, subclinical, clinical and advanced. Available diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and cannot detect early stages of the infection; as a result, only animals in the clinical and advanced stages, which represent the tip of the ‘iceberg’, are identified through testing. The Iceberg Phenomenon is then applied to provide estimates for JD prevalence. For one animal in the advanced stage, it is assumed that there are one to two in the clinical stage, four to eight in the subclinical stage, and ten to fourteen in the silent stage. These ratios, however, are based on little evidence. To evaluate the ratios, we developed a deterministic ordinary differential equation model of JD transmission and disease progression dynamics. When duration periods associated with the natural course of the disease progression are used, the above ratios do not hold. The ratios used to estimate JD prevalence need to be further investigated.

Dynamics of specific anti-Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis antibody response through age

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) causes a chronic infection in cattle. MAP infected cattle with humoral immune (HI) reactions with IgG antibodies are usually those where latency of infection has ceased and their infection is progressing towards reduced milk yield, weight loss and significant bacterial excretion in feces. The proportion of detectable infections among all infected animals that will develop disease is often referred to as 'the tip of the iceberg'. The purpose of this study was to estimate this proportion. Test-records from 18,972 Danish dairy cows with MAP specific IgG antibodies on their final test-record were used to estimate age-specific sensitivities (Se). These cows were the infected ones considered to develop disease in a population with a representative age-distribution and were defined as cases. The specificity (Sp) of the test was estimated based on test-results from 166,905 cows, which had no MAP IgG antibodies in their final four test-records. The Sp, age-specific Se and maximum Se were used to estimate the probability of having HI at a given age resulting in the proportion of infected cows with HI at a given age. For cows 2 years of age, the proportion of detectable cases was 0.33, while it was 0.94 for cows 5 years of age. Thus, there was a significant shift in the tip of the iceberg with aging. This study provided a model for estimating the proportion of latent chronic infections that would progress to disease, and the results can be used to model infection dynamics.

Effect of spatial separation of pigs on spread of Streptococcus suis serotype 9

The spread of an infectious agent in a population can be reduced by interfering in the infectiousness or susceptibility of individuals, and/or in their contact structure. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of prevention of direct contact between infectious and susceptible pigs on the transmission of Streptococcus suis (S. suis). In three replicate experiments, S. suis-free pigs were housed in boxes either in pairs (25 pairs) or alone (15 pigs). The distance between the boxes was ±1 m. At 7 weeks of age, one pig of each pair was inoculated intranasally with S. suis serotype 9; the other pigs were exposed to S. suis by either direct (pairs) or indirect contact (individually housed pigs). Tonsillar brush and saliva swab samples from all pigs were collected regularly for 4 weeks post inoculation to monitor colonization with S. suis. All inoculated pigs became infected, and their pen mates became colonized within 2 days. Thirteen indirectly exposed pigs became positive within 7-25 days after exposure. The rate of direct transmission βdir was estimated to be 3.58 per pig per day (95% CI: 2.29-5.60). The rate of indirect transmission increased in time, depending on the cumulative number of days pigs tested positive for the presence of S. suis. The estimate β'ind was 0.001 (95% CI: 0.0006-0.0017) new infections per pig per day for each day that an infected pig was tested positive for S. suis. We conclude that prevention of direct contact reduces the rate at which susceptible pigs become colonized. Simulation studies using these parameters showed, however, that such intervention measure would not limit S. suis serotype 9 spread in a commercial pig farm to a relevant extent, implying that spatial separation of groups op pigs within a compartment would not be effective on a farm.

Evaluation [corrected] of the "Iceberg Phenomenon" in Johne's disease through mathematical modelling

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic, enteric disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Disease progression follows four distinct stages: silent, subclinical, clinical and advanced. Available diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and cannot detect early stages of the infection; as a result, only animals in the clinical and advanced stages, which represent the tip of the 'iceberg', are identified through testing. The Iceberg Phenomenon is then applied to provide estimates for JD prevalence. For one animal in the advanced stage, it is assumed that there are one to two in the clinical stage, four to eight in the subclinical stage, and ten to fourteen in the silent stage. These ratios, however, are based on little evidence. To evaluate the ratios, we developed a deterministic ordinary differential equation model of JD transmission and disease progression dynamics. When duration periods associated with the natural course of the disease progression are used, the above ratios do not hold. The ratios used to estimate JD prevalence need to be further investigated.

Accounting for uncertainty in model-based prevalence estimation: paratuberculosis control in dairy herds

Background

A common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data.

Results

A technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model’s resultant ability to reproduce prevalence data. Once these weights are generated the model can be used to evaluate other scenarios such as control options. To illustrate the utility of this approach these reweighted model outputs were used to compare standard test and cull control strategies both individually and in combination with simple husbandry practices that aim to reduce infection rates.

Conclusions

The technique developed has been shown to be applicable to a complex model incorporating realistic control options. For models where parameters are not well known or subject to significant variability, the reweighting scheme allowed estimated distributions of parameter values to be combined with additional sources of information, such as that available from prevalence distributions, resulting in outputs which implicitly handle variation and uncertainty. This methodology allows for more robust predictions from modelling approaches by allowing for parameter uncertainty and combining different sources of information, and is thus expected to be useful in application to a large number of disease systems.

Impact of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis vaccines in dairy herds: a mathematical modeling approach

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential impacts of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) vaccines on the dynamics of MAP infection in US dairy herds using a mathematical modeling approach. Vaccine-based control programs have been implemented to reduce the prevalence of MAP infection in some dairy herds; however, MAP vaccines are imperfect. Vaccines can provide partial protection for susceptible calves, reduce the infectiousness of animals shedding MAP, lengthen the latent period of infected animals, slow the progression from low shedding to high shedding in infectious animals, and reduce clinical disease. To quantitatively study the impacts of imperfect MAP vaccines, we developed a deterministic multi-group vaccination model and performed global sensitivity analyses. Our results explain why MAP vaccination might have a beneficial, negligible, or detrimental effect in the reduction of prevalence and show that vaccines that are beneficial to individual animals may not be useful for a herd-level control plan. The study suggests that high efficacy vaccines that are aimed at reducing the susceptibility of the host are the most effective in controlling MAP transmission. This work indicates that MAP vaccination should be integrated into a comprehensive control program that includes test-and-cull intervention and improved calf rearing management.

The complex interplay between stress and bacterial infections in animals

Over the past decade, an increasing awareness has arisen of the role of neuroendocrine hormones in the susceptibility of mammalian hosts to a bacterial infection. During a stress response, glucocorticoids, catecholamines and neuroendocrine factors are released into the circulation of the host. For a long time the effects of stress on the course of an infection have been exclusively ascribed to the direct effect of stress-related hormones on the immune system and the intestinal barrier function. Chronic stress is known to cause a shift from T helper 1-mediated cellular immunity toward T helper 2-mediated humoral immunity, which can influence the course of an infection and/or the susceptibility to a microorganism. Bacteria can however also respond directly to stress-related host signals. Catecholamines can alter growth, motility, biofilm formation and/or virulence of pathogens and commensal bacteria, and as a consequence influence the outcome of infections by these bacteria in many hosts. For some bacteria, such as Salmonella, Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa it was shown that this influence is regulated by quorum sensing mechanisms. In this manuscript an overview of how and when stress influences the outcome of bacterial infections in animals is provided.

Within-herd contact structure and transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in a persistently infected dairy cattle herd

Within-herd transmission of pathogens occurs either by direct or by indirect contact between susceptible and infected animals. In dairy herds that are structured into groups, the way in which animals encounter each other and share an environment can affect pathogen transmission. Dairy cattle are heterogeneous in terms of susceptibility and infectivity with respect to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) transmission. It is mainly young animals that are susceptible and adults that are infectious. Both vertical and horizontal transmission through the ingestion of Map shed into the environment by adults and transiently infected calves can occur. Our objective was to assess the effect of contact structure on Map transmission in persistently infected dairy herds and to examine the effect of isolating calves from other calves or from adults before weaning. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of Map transmission in a closed dairy herd. The model reflects the Map infection process and herd management characteristics. Indirect transmission via the environment was modelled explicitly. Six infection states (susceptible, resistant, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, and clinically affected) and two contaminated farm area environments (whole farm and calf area) were modelled. Calves were housed in hutches, individual indoor pens, or group indoor pens. Two different levels of exposure of calves to a farm environment contaminated by adults were possible: no exposure and indirect exposure through fomites. Three herd sizes were studied. We found that contacts between calves before weaning did not influence Map transmission in a herd, whereas the level of exposure of calves to an environment contaminated by adults and the starting age of exposure of calves to adults were pivotal. Early culling of clinically affected adults led to a lower prevalence of infectious adults over time. The results were independent of herd size. Despite the many transmission routes that are known, the best control approach is to limit the exposure of calves to adult faeces through the systematic separation of adults and calves in combination with hygiene measures. Reducing contact between calves does not appear effective.

Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

Epidemiological models enable to better understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and to assess ex-ante control strategies. For Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), possible transmission routes have been described, but Map spread in a herd and the relative importance of the routes are currently insufficiently understood to prioritize control measures. We aim to predict early after Map introduction in a dairy cattle herd whether infection is likely to fade out or persist, when no control measures are implemented, using a modelling approach. Both vertical transmission and horizontal transmission via the ingestion of colostrum, milk, or faeces present in the contaminated environment were modelled. Calf-to-calf indirect transmission was possible. Six health states were represented: susceptible, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, clinically affected, and resistant. The model was partially validated by comparing the simulated prevalence with field data. Housing facilities and contacts between animals were specifically considered for calves and heifers. After the introduction of one infected animal in a naive herd, fadeout occurred in 66% of the runs. When Map persisted, the prevalence of infected animals increased to 88% in 25 years. The two main transmission routes were via the farm's environment and in utero transmission. Calf-to-calf transmission was minor. Fadeout versus Map persistence could be differentiated with the number of clinically affected animals, which was rarely above one when fadeout occurred. Therefore, early detection of affected animals is crucial in preventing Map persistence in dairy herds.