Multivariate syndromic surveillance for cattle diseases: Epidemic simulation and algorithm performance evaluation

Multivariate Syndromic Surveillance (SyS) systems that simultaneously assess and combine information from different data sources are especially useful for strengthening surveillance systems for early detection of infectious disease epidemics. Despite the strong motivation for implementing multivariate SyS and there being numerous methods reported, the number of operational multivariate SyS systems in veterinary medicine is still very small. One possible reason is that assessing the performance of such surveillance systems remains challenging because field epidemic data are often unavailable. The objective of this study is to demonstrate a practical multivariate event detection method (directionally sensitive multivariate control charts) that can be easily applied in livestock disease SyS, using syndrome time series data from the Swiss cattle population as an example. We present a standardized method for simulating multivariate epidemics of different diseases using four diseases as examples: Bovine Virus Diarrhea (BVD), Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR), Bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SV). Two directional multivariate control chart algorithms, Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) and Multivariate Cumulative Sum (MCUSUM) were compared. The two algorithms were evaluated using 12 syndrome time series extracted from two Swiss national databases. The two algorithms were able to detect all simulated epidemics around 4.5 months after the start of the epidemic, with a specificity of 95%. However, the results varied depending on the algorithm and the disease. The MEWMA algorithm always detected epidemics earlier than the MCUSUM, and epidemics of IBR and SV were detected earlier than epidemics of BVD and BTV. Our results show that the two directional multivariate control charts are promising methods for combining information from multiple time series for early detection of subtle changes in time series from a population without producing an unreasonable amount of false alarms. The approach that we used for simulating multivariate epidemics is relatively easy to implement and could be used in other situations where real epidemic data are unavailable. We believe that our study results can support the implementation and assessment of multivariate SyS systems in animal health.

Identifying Lookouts for Epidemio-Surveillance: Application to the Emergence of Xylella fastidiosa in France

Recent detections of Xylella fastidiosa in Corsica Island, France, has raised concerns on its possible spread to mainland France and the rest of the Mediterranean Basin. Early detection of infected plants is paramount to prevent the spread of the bacteria, but little is known about this pathosystem in European environments, hence standard surveillance strategies may be ineffective. We present a new methodological approach for the design of risk-based surveillance strategies, adapted to the emerging risk caused by X. fastidiosa. Our proposal is based on a combination of machine learning techniques and network analysis that aims at understanding the main abiotic drivers of the infection, produce risk maps and identify lookouts for the design of future surveillance plans. The identified drivers coincide with known results in laboratory studies about the correlation between environmental variables, such as water stress and temperature, and the presence of the bacterium in plants. Furthermore, the produced risk maps overlap nicely with detected foci of infection, while they also highlight other susceptible regions where X. fastidiosa has not been found yet. We conclude the paper presenting a list of recommended regions for a risk-based surveillance campaign based on the predicted spread and probability of early detection of the disease.

Knowledge gaps that hamper prevention and control of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection

In the last decades, many regional and country-wide control programmes for Johne's disease (JD) were developed due to associated economic losses, or because of a possible association with Crohn's disease. These control programmes were often not successful, partly because management protocols were not followed, including the introduction of infected replacement cattle, because tests to identify infected animals were unreliable, and uptake by farmers was not high enough because of a perceived low return on investment. In the absence of a cure or effective commercial vaccines, control of JD is currently primarily based on herd management strategies to avoid infection of cattle and restrict within-farm and farm-to-farm transmission. Although JD control programmes have been implemented in most developed countries, lessons learned from JD prevention and control programmes are underreported. Also, JD control programmes are typically evaluated in a limited number of herds and the duration of the study is less than 5 year, making it difficult to adequately assess the efficacy of control programmes. In this manuscript, we identify the most important gaps in knowledge hampering JD prevention and control programmes, including vaccination and diagnostics. Secondly, we discuss directions that research should take to address those knowledge gaps.

Methodological challenges to multivariate syndromic surveillance: a case study using Swiss animal health data

BACKGROUND

In an era of ubiquitous electronic collection of animal health data, multivariate surveillance systems (which concurrently monitor several data streams) should have a greater probability of detecting disease events than univariate systems. However, despite their limitations, univariate aberration detection algorithms are used in most active syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems because of their ease of application and interpretation. On the other hand, a stochastic modelling-based approach to multivariate surveillance offers more flexibility, allowing for the retention of historical outbreaks, for overdispersion and for non-stationarity. While such methods are not new, they are yet to be applied to animal health surveillance data. We applied an example of such stochastic model, Held and colleagues' two-component model, to two multivariate animal health datasets from Switzerland.

RESULTS

In our first application, multivariate time series of the number of laboratories test requests were derived from Swiss animal diagnostic laboratories. We compare the performance of the two-component model to parallel monitoring using an improved Farrington algorithm and found both methods yield a satisfactorily low false alarm rate. However, the calibration test of the two-component model on the one-step ahead predictions proved satisfactory, making such an approach suitable for outbreak prediction. In our second application, the two-component model was applied to the multivariate time series of the number of cattle abortions and the number of test requests for bovine viral diarrhea (a disease that often results in abortions). We found that there is a two days lagged effect from the number of abortions to the number of test requests. We further compared the joint modelling and univariate modelling of the number of laboratory test requests time series. The joint modelling approach showed evidence of superiority in terms of forecasting abilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Stochastic modelling approaches offer the potential to address more realistic surveillance scenarios through, for example, the inclusion of times series specific parameters, or of covariates known to have an impact on syndrome counts. Nevertheless, many methodological challenges to multivariate surveillance of animal SyS data still remain. Deciding on the amount of corroboration among data streams that is required to escalate into an alert is not a trivial task given the sparse data on the events under consideration (e.g. disease outbreaks).

Invited review: The economic impact and control of paratuberculosis in cattle

Paratuberculosis (also called Johne's disease) is a chronic disease caused by Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) that affects ruminants and other animals. The epidemiology of paratuberculosis is complex and the clinical manifestations and economic impact of the disease in cattle can be variable depending on factors such as herd management, age, infection dose, and disease prevalence, among others. Additionally, considerable challenges are faced in the control of paratuberculosis in cattle, such as the lack of accurate and reliable diagnostic tests. Nevertheless, efforts are directed toward the control of this disease because it can cause substantial economic losses to the cattle industry mainly due to increased premature culling, replacement costs, decreased milk yield, reduced feed conversion efficiency, fertility problems, reduced slaughter values, and increased susceptibility to other diseases or conditions. The variability and uncertainty surrounding the estimations of paratuberculosis prevalence and impact influence the design, implementation, and efficiency of control programs in diverse areas of the world. This review covers important aspects of the economic impact and control of paratuberculosis, including challenges related to disease detection, estimations of the prevalence and economic effects of the disease, and the implementation of control programs. The control of paratuberculosis can improve animal health and welfare, increase productivity, reduce potential market problems, and increase overall business profitability. The benefits that can derive from the control of paratuberculosis need to be communicated to all industry stakeholders to promote the implementation of control programs. Moreover, if the suspected link between Johne's disease in ruminants and Crohn's disease in humans was established, significant economic losses could be expected, particularly for the dairy industry, making the control of this disease a priority across dairy industries internationally.

The potential Public Health Impact of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis: Global Opinion Survey of Topic Specialists

Global research knowledge has accumulated over the past few decades, and there is reasonable evidence for a positive association between Mycobacterium avium spp. paratuberculosis and Crohn's disease in humans, although its role as a human pathogen has not been entirely accepted. For this reason, management of public health risk due to M. paratuberculosis remains an important policy issue in agri-food public health arenas in many countries. Responsible authorities must decide whether existing mitigation strategies are sufficient to prevent or reduce human exposure to M. paratuberculosis. A Web-based questionnaire was administered to topic specialists to elicit empirical knowledge and opinion on the overall public health impact of M. paratuberculosis, the importance of various routes of human exposure to the pathogen, existing mitigation strategies and the need for future strategies. The questionnaire had four sections and consisted of 20 closed and five open questions. Topic specialists believed that M. paratuberculosis is likely a risk to human health (44.8%) and, given the paucity of available evidence, most frequently ranked it as a moderate public health issue (40.1%). A significant correlation was detected between topic specialists' commitment to M. paratuberculosis in terms of the number of years or proportion of work dedicated to this topic, and the likelihood of an extreme answer (high or low) to the above questions. Topic specialists identified contact with ruminants and dairy products as the most likely routes of exposure for humans. There was consensus on exposure routes for ruminants and what commodities to target in mitigation efforts. Described mandatory programmes mainly focused on culling diseased animals and voluntary on-farm prevention programmes. Despite ongoing difficulties in the identification of subclinical infections in animals, the topic specialists largely agreed that further enhancement of on-farm programmes in affected commodities by the agri-food industry (68.4%) and allocation of resources by governments to monitor the issue (92%) are most appropriate given the current state of evidence.