Can machine learning algorithms accurately predict discharge to nonhome facility and early unplanned readmissions following spinal fusion? Analysis of a national surgical registry

Artificial Intelligence in Spinal Imaging and Patient Care: A Review of Recent Advances

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming spinal imaging and patient care through automated analysis and enhanced decision-making. This review presents a clinical task-based evaluation, highlighting the specific impact of AI techniques on different aspects of spinal imaging and patient care. We first discuss how AI can potentially improve image quality through techniques like denoising or artifact reduction. We then explore how AI enables efficient quantification of anatomical measurements, spinal curvature parameters, vertebral segmentation, and disc grading. This facilitates objective, accurate interpretation and diagnosis. AI models now reliably detect key spinal pathologies, achieving expert-level performance in tasks like identifying fractures, stenosis, infections, and tumors. Beyond diagnosis, AI also assists surgical planning via synthetic computed tomography generation, augmented reality systems, and robotic guidance. Furthermore, AI image analysis combined with clinical data enables personalized predictions to guide treatment decisions, such as forecasting spine surgery outcomes. However, challenges still need to be addressed in implementing AI clinically, including model interpretability, generalizability, and data limitations. Multicenter collaboration using large, diverse datasets is critical to advance the field further. While adoption barriers persist, AI presents a transformative opportunity to revolutionize spinal imaging workflows, empowering clinicians to translate data into actionable insights for improved patient care.

Using Machine Learning Models to Identify Factors Associated With 30-Day Readmissions After Posterior Cervical Fusions: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Readmission rates after posterior cervical fusion (PCF) significantly impact patients and healthcare, with complication rates at 15%-25% and up to 12% 90-day readmission rates. In this study, we aim to test whether machine learning (ML) models that capture interfactorial interactions outperform traditional logistic regression (LR) in identifying readmission-associated factors.

METHODS

The Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database was used to identify patients who underwent PCF between 2004-2017. To determine factors associated with 30-day readmissions, 5 ML models were generated and evaluated, including a multivariate LR (MLR) model. Then, the best-performing model, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), was compared to the LACE (Length patient stay in the hospital, Acuity of admission of patient in the hospital, Comorbidity, and Emergency visit) index regarding potential cost savings from algorithm implementation.

RESULTS

This study included 4,130 patients, 874 of which were readmitted within 30 days. When analyzed and scaled, we found that patient discharge status, comorbidities, and number of procedure codes were factors that influenced MLR, while patient discharge status, billed admission charge, and length of stay influenced the GBM model. The GBM model significantly outperformed MLR in predicting unplanned readmissions (mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.846 vs. 0.829; p < 0.001), while also projecting an average cost savings of 50% more than the LACE index.

CONCLUSION

Five models (GBM, XGBoost [extreme gradient boosting], RF [random forest], LASSO [least absolute shrinkage and selection operator], and MLR) were evaluated, among which, the GBM model exhibited superior predictive performance, robustness, and accuracy. Factors associated with readmissions impact LR and GBM models differently, suggesting that these models can be used complementarily. When analyzing PCF procedures, the GBM model resulted in greater predictive performance and was associated with higher theoretical cost savings for readmissions associated with PCF complications.

Postoperative Discharge to Acute Rehabilitation or Skilled Nursing Facility Compared With Home Does Not Reduce Hospital Readmissions, Return to Surgery, or Improve Outcomes Following Adult Spine Deformity Surgery

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review of a prospective multicenter adult spinal deformity (ASD) study.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate 30-day readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, postoperative complications, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) for matched ASD patients receiving nonhome discharge (NON), including acute rehabilitation (REHAB), and skilled nursing facility (SNF), or home (HOME) discharge following ASD surgery.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Postoperative disposition following ASD surgery frequently involves nonhome discharge. Little data exists for longer term outcomes for ASD patients receiving nonhome discharge versus patients discharged to home.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Surgically treated ASD patients prospectively enrolled into a multicenter study were assessed for NON or HOME disposition following hospital discharge. NON was further divided into REHAB or SNF. Propensity score matching was used to match for patient age, frailty, spine deformity, levels fused, and osteotomies performed at surgery. Thirty-day hospital readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, postoperative complications, and 1-year and minimum 2-year postoperative PROs were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 241 of 374 patients were eligible for the study. NON patients were identified and matched to HOME patients. Following matching, 158 patients remained for evaluation; NON and HOME had similar preoperative age, frailty, spine deformity magnitude, surgery performed, and duration of hospital stay ( P >0.05). Thirty-day readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, and postoperative complications were similar for NON versus HOME and similar for REHAB (N=64) versus SNF (N=42) versus HOME ( P >0.05). At 1-year and minimum 2-year follow-up, HOME demonstrated similar to better PRO scores including Oswestry Disability Index, Short-Form 36v2 questionnaire Mental Component Score and Physical Component Score, and Scoliosis Research Society scores versus NON, REHAB, and SNF ( P <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute needs must be considered following ASD surgery, however, matched analysis comparing 30-day hospital readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, postoperative complications, and PROs demonstrated minimal benefit for NON, REHAB, or SNF versus HOME at 1- and 2-year follow-up, questioning the risk and cost/benefits of routine use of nonhome discharge.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III-prognostic.

Pushing the Limits of Minimally Invasive Spine Surgery-From Preoperative to Intraoperative to Postoperative Management

The introduction of minimally invasive surgery ushered in a new era of spine surgery by minimizing the undue iatrogenic injury, recovery time, and blood loss, among other complications, of traditional open procedures. Over time, technological advancements have further refined the care of the operative minimally invasive spine patient. Moreover, pre-, and postoperative care have also undergone significant change by way of artificial intelligence risk stratification, advanced imaging for surgical planning and patient selection, postoperative recovery pathways, and digital health solutions. Despite these advancements, challenges persist necessitating ongoing research and collaboration to further optimize patient care in minimally invasive spine surgery.

Generalizability of machine learning models predicting 30-day unplanned readmission after primary total knee arthroplasty using a nationally representative database

Unplanned readmission after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) costs an average of US $39,000 per episode and negatively impacts patient outcomes. Although predictive machine learning (ML) models show promise for risk stratification in specific populations, existing studies do not address model generalizability. This study aimed to establish the generalizability of previous institutionally developed ML models to predict 30-day readmission following primary TKA using a national database. Data from 424,354 patients from the ACS-NSQIP database was used to develop and validate four ML models to predict 30-day readmission risk after primary TKA. Individual model performance was assessed and compared based on discrimination, accuracy, calibration, and clinical utility. Length of stay (> 2.5 days), body mass index (BMI) (> 33.21 kg/m2), and operation time (> 93 min) were important determinants of 30-day readmission. All ML models demonstrated equally good accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory ability (Brier score, ANN = RF = HGB = NEPLR = 0.03; ANN, slope = 0.90, intercept =  - 0.11; RF, slope = 0.93, intercept =  - 0.12; HGB, slope = 0.90, intercept =  - 0.12; NEPLR, slope = 0.77, intercept = 0.01; AUCANN = AUCRF = AUCHGB = AUCNEPLR = 0.78). This study validates the generalizability of four previously developed ML algorithms in predicting readmission risk in patients undergoing TKA and offers surgeons an opportunity to reduce readmissions by optimizing discharge planning, BMI, and surgical efficiency.

Preserving privacy in big data research: the role of federated learning in spine surgery

PURPOSE

Integrating machine learning models into electronic medical record systems can greatly enhance decision-making, patient outcomes, and value-based care in healthcare systems. Challenges related to data accessibility, privacy, and sharing can impede the development and deployment of effective predictive models in spine surgery. Federated learning (FL) offers a decentralized approach to machine learning that allows local model training while preserving data privacy, making it well-suited for healthcare settings. Our objective was to describe federated learning solutions for enhanced predictive modeling in spine surgery.

METHODS

The authors reviewed the literature.

RESULTS

FL has promising applications in spine surgery, including telesurgery, AI-based prediction models, and medical image segmentation. Implementing FL requires careful consideration of infrastructure, data quality, and standardization, but it holds the potential to revolutionize orthopedic surgery while ensuring patient privacy and data control.

CONCLUSIONS

Federated learning shows great promise in revolutionizing predictive modeling in spine surgery by addressing the challenges of data privacy, accessibility, and sharing. The applications of FL in telesurgery, AI-based predictive models, and medical image segmentation have demonstrated their potential to enhance patient outcomes and value-based care.

Reliable Prediction of Discharge Disposition Following Cervical Spine Surgery With Ensemble Machine Learning and Validation on a National Cohort

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict nonhome discharge after cervical spine surgery that is validated and usable on a national scale to ensure generalizability and elucidate candidate drivers for prediction.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Excessive length of hospital stay can be attributed to delays in postoperative referrals to intermediate care rehabilitation centers or skilled nursing facilities. Accurate preoperative prediction of patients who may require access to these resources can facilitate a more efficient referral and discharge process, thereby reducing hospital and patient costs in addition to minimizing the risk of hospital-acquired complications.

METHODS

Electronic medical records were retrospectively reviewed from a single-center data warehouse (SCDW) to identify patients undergoing cervical spine surgeries between 2008 and 2019 for machine learning algorithm development and internal validation. The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was queried to identify cervical spine fusion surgeries between 2009 and 2017 for external validation of algorithm performance. Gradient-boosted trees were constructed to predict nonhome discharge across patient cohorts. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to measure model performance. SHAP values were used to identify nonlinear risk factors for nonhome discharge and to interpret algorithm predictions.

RESULTS

A total of 3523 cases of cervical spine fusion surgeries were included from the SCDW data set, and 311,582 cases were isolated from NIS. The model demonstrated robust prediction of nonhome discharge across all cohorts, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (SD=0.01) on both the SCDW and nationwide NIS test sets. Anterior approach only, age, elective admission status, Medicare insurance status, and total Elixhauser Comorbidity Index score were the most important predictors of discharge destination.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning algorithms reliably predict nonhome discharge across single-center and national cohorts and identify preoperative features of importance following cervical spine fusion surgery.

What Factors Predict the Development of Neurologic Deficits Following Resection of Intramedullary Spinal Cord Tumors: A Multi-Center Study

BACKGROUND

Intramedullary spinal cord tumors are challenging to resect, and their postoperative neurological outcomes are often difficult to predict, with few studies assessing this outcome.

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of all patients surgically treated for Intramedullary spinal cord tumors at our multisite tertiary care institution (Mayo Clinic Arizona, Mayo Clinic Florida, Mayo Clinic Rochester) between June 2002 and May 2020. Variables that were significant in the univariate analyses were included in a multivariate logistic regression. "MissForest" operating on the Random Forest algorithm, was used for data imputation, and K-prototype was used for data clustering. Heatmaps were added to show correlations between postoperative neurological deficit and all other included variables. Shapley Additive exPlanations were implemented to understand each feature's importance.

RESULTS

Our query resulted in 315 patients, with 160 meeting the inclusion criteria. There were 53 patients with astrocytoma, 66 with ependymoma, and 41 with hemangioblastoma. The mean age (standard deviation) was 42.3 (17.5), and 48.1% of patients were women (n = 77/160). Multivariate analysis revealed that pathologic grade >3 (OR = 1.55; CI = [0.67, 3.58], P = 0.046 predicted a new neurological deficit. Random Forest algorithm (supervised machine learning) found age, use of neuromonitoring, histology of the tumor, performing a midline myelotomy, and tumor location to be the most important predictors of new postoperative neurological deficits.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor grade/histology, age, use of neuromonitoring, and myelotomy type appeared to be most predictive of postoperative neurological deficits. These results can be used to better inform patients of perioperative risk.

Machine Learning in Spine Surgery: A Narrative Review

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) can offer revolutionary advances in their application to the field of spine surgery. Within the past 5 years, novel applications of ML have assisted in surgical decision-making, intraoperative imaging and navigation, and optimization of clinical outcomes. ML has the capacity to address many different clinical needs and improve diagnostic and surgical techniques. This review will discuss current applications of ML in the context of spine surgery by breaking down its implementation preoperatively, intraoperatively, and postoperatively. Ethical considerations to ML and challenges in ML implementation must be addressed to maximally benefit patients, spine surgeons, and the healthcare system. Areas for future research in augmented reality and mixed reality, along with limitations in generalizability and bias, will also be highlighted.

Development and Validation of a Risk-Prediction Nomogram for Preoperative Blood Type and Antibody Testing in Spinal Fusion Surgery

OBJECTIVE

With advancements in minimally invasive techniques, the use of spinal fusion surgery is rapidly increasing and transfusion rates are decreasing. Routine preoperative ABO/Rh blood type and antibody screening (T&S) laboratory tests may not be appropriate for all spinal fusion patients. Herein, we constructed a nomogram to assess patient transfusion risk based on various risk factors in patients undergoing spinal fusion surgery, so that preoperative T&S testing can be selectively scheduled in appropriate patients to reduce healthcare and patient costs.

METHODS

Patients who underwent spinal fusion surgery between 01/2020 and 03/2023 were retrospectively examined and classified into the training (n = 3533, 70%) and validation (n = 1515, 30%) datasets. LASSO and multivariable logistic regression were used to analyze risk factors for blood transfusion. Nomogram predictive model was built according to the independent predictors and mode predictive power was validated using consistency index (C-index), Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration curve analysis and area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate the model's performance in the clinic.

RESULTS

Being female, age, BMI, admission route, critical patient, operative time, heart failure, end-stage renal disease or chronic kidney disease (ESRD or CKD), anemia, and coagulation defect were predictors of blood transfusion for spinal fusion. A prediction nomogram was developed according to a multivariate model with good discriminatory power (C-index = 0.887); Bootstrap resampling internal validation C-index was 0.883. Calibration curves showed strong matching between the predicted and actual probabilities of the training and validation sets. HL tests for the training and validation sets had p-values of 0.327 and 0.179, respectively, indicating good calibration. When applied to the training set, the following parameters were found: AUC: 0.895, 95% CI: 0.871-0.919, sensitivity 78.2%, specificity 86.7%, positive predictive value 29.4% and negative predictive value 98.2%. If the model were applied in the training set, 2911 T&S tests (82.4%) would be eliminated, equaling a RMB349,320 cost reduction. The AUC in the internal validation was: 0.879, 95% CI: 0.839-0.927, sensitivity 75.2%, specificity 88.8%, positive predictive value 34.3%, negative predictive value 97.9%, would eliminate 1276 T&S tests (84.2%), saving RMB 153,120. The DCA curve indicated good clinical application value.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on 10 independent factors can help healthcare professionals predict the risk of transfusion for patients undergoing spinal fusion surgery to target preoperative T&S testing to appropriate patients and reduce healthcare costs.

Limitations in Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Imbalanced Binary Outcome Classification in Spine Surgery: A Systematic Review

Clinical prediction models for spine surgery applications are on the rise, with an increasing reliance on machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL). Many of the predicted outcomes are uncommon; therefore, to ensure the models' effectiveness in clinical practice it is crucial to properly evaluate them. This systematic review aims to identify and evaluate current research-based ML and DL models applied for spine surgery, specifically those predicting binary outcomes with a focus on their evaluation metrics. Overall, 60 papers were included, and the findings were reported according to the PRISMA guidelines. A total of 13 papers focused on lengths of stay (LOS), 12 on readmissions, 12 on non-home discharge, 6 on mortality, and 5 on reoperations. The target outcomes exhibited data imbalances ranging from 0.44% to 42.4%. A total of 59 papers reported the model's area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), 28 mentioned accuracies, 33 provided sensitivity, 29 discussed specificity, 28 addressed positive predictive value (PPV), 24 included the negative predictive value (NPV), 25 indicated the Brier score with 10 providing a null model Brier, and 8 detailed the F1 score. Additionally, data visualization varied among the included papers. This review discusses the use of appropriate evaluation schemes in ML and identifies several common errors and potential bias sources in the literature. Embracing these recommendations as the field advances may facilitate the integration of reliable and effective ML models in clinical settings.

Machine Learning Applications in Spine Surgery

This literature review sought to identify and evaluate the current applications of artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) in spine surgery that can effectively guide clinical decision-making and surgical planning. By using specific keywords to maximize search sensitivity, a thorough literature research was conducted in several online databases: Scopus, PubMed, and Google Scholar, and the findings were filtered according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A total of 46 studies met the requirements and were included in this review. According to this study, AI/ML models were sufficiently accurate with a mean overall value of 74.9%, and performed best at preoperative patient selection, cost prediction, and length of stay. Performance was also good at predicting functional outcomes and postoperative mortality. Regression analysis was the most frequently utilized application whereas deep learning/artificial neural networks had the highest sensitivity score (81.5%). Despite the relatively brief history of engagement with AI/ML, as evidenced by the fact that 77.5% of studies were published after 2018, the outcomes have been promising. In light of the Big Data era, the increasing prevalence of National Registries, and the wide-ranging applications of AI, such as exemplified by ChatGPT (OpenAI, San Francisco, California), it is highly likely that the field of spine surgery will gradually adopt and integrate AI/ML into its clinical practices. Consequently, it is of great significance for spine surgeons to acquaint themselves with the fundamental principles of AI/ML, as these technologies hold the potential for substantial improvements in overall patient care.

Identification of Factors Associated With 30-day Readmissions After Posterior Lumbar Fusion Using Machine Learning and Traditional Models: A National Longitudinal Database Study

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the factors associated with readmissions after PLF using machine learning and logistic regression (LR) models.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Readmissions after posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) place significant health and financial burden on the patient and overall health care system.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database was used to identify patients who underwent posterior lumbar laminectomy, fusion, and instrumentation between 2004 and 2017. Four machine learning models and a multivariable LR model were used to assess factors most closely associated with 30-day readmission. These models were also evaluated in terms of ability to predict unplanned 30-day readmissions. The top-performing model (Gradient Boosting Machine; GBM) was then compared with the validated LACE index in terms of potential cost savings associated with the implementation of the model.

RESULTS

A total of 18,981 patients were included, of which 3080 (16.2%) were readmitted within 30 days of initial admission. Discharge status, prior admission, and geographic division were most influential for the LR model, whereas discharge status, length of stay, and prior admissions had the greatest relevance for the GBM model. GBM outperformed LR in predicting unplanned 30-day readmission (mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.865 vs. 0.850, P <0.0001). The use of GBM also achieved a projected 80% decrease in readmission-associated costs relative to those achieved by the LACE index model.

CONCLUSIONS

The factors associated with readmission vary in terms of predictive influence based on standard LR and machine learning models used, highlighting the complementary roles these models have in identifying relevant factors for the prediction of 30-day readmissions. For PLF procedures, GBM yielded the greatest predictive ability and associated cost savings for readmission.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3.

Artificial neural network prediction of post-thyroidectomy outcome

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to develop a deep neural network (DNN) for predicting surgical/medical complications and unplanned reoperations following thyroidectomy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The 2005-2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database was queried to extract patients who underwent thyroidectomy. A DNN consisting of 10 layers was developed with an 80:20 breakdown for training and testing.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Three primary outcomes of interest, including occurrence of surgical complications, medical complications, and unplanned reoperation were predicted.

RESULTS

Of the 21 550 patients who underwent thyroidectomy, medical complications, surgical complications and reoperation occurred in 1723 (8.0%), 943 (4.38%) and 2448 (11.36%) patients, respectively. The DNN performed with an area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics of .783 (medical complications), .709 (surgical complications) and .703 (reoperations). Accuracy, specificity and negative predictive values of the model for all outcome variables ranged 78.2%-97.2%, while sensitivity and positive predictive values ranged 11.6%-62.5%. Variables with high permutation importance included sex, inpatient versus outpatient and American Society of Anesthesiologists class.

CONCLUSIONS

We predicted surgical/medical complications and unplanned reoperation following thyroidectomy via development of a well-performing ML algorithm. We have also developed a web-based application available on mobile devices to demonstrate the predictive capacity of our models in real time.

Revolutionizing Spinal Care: Current Applications and Future Directions of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly becoming integral components of modern healthcare, offering new avenues for diagnosis, treatment, and outcome prediction. This review explores their current applications and potential future in the field of spinal care. From enhancing imaging techniques to predicting patient outcomes, AI and ML are revolutionizing the way we approach spinal diseases. AI and ML have significantly improved spinal imaging by augmenting detection and classification capabilities, thereby boosting diagnostic accuracy. Predictive models have also been developed to guide treatment plans and foresee patient outcomes, driving a shift towards more personalized care. Looking towards the future, we envision AI and ML further ingraining themselves in spinal care with the development of algorithms capable of deciphering complex spinal pathologies to aid decision making. Despite the promise these technologies hold, their integration into clinical practice is not without challenges. Data quality, integration hurdles, data security, and ethical considerations are some of the key areas that need to be addressed for their successful and responsible implementation. In conclusion, AI and ML represent potent tools for transforming spinal care. Thoughtful and balanced integration of these technologies, guided by ethical considerations, can lead to significant advancements, ushering in an era of more personalized, effective, and efficient healthcare.

Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms to Predict Postoperative Outcomes Following Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study from a multisite academic medical center.

OBJECTIVE

To construct, evaluate, and interpret a series of machine learning models to predict outcomes related to inpatient health care resource utilization for patients undergoing anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF).

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Reducing postoperative health care utilization is an important goal for improving the delivery of surgical care and serves as a metric for quality assessment. Recent data has shown marked hospital resource utilization after ACDF surgery, including readmissions, and ED visits. The burden of postoperative health care use presents a potential application of machine learning techniques, which may be capable of accurately identifying at-risk patients using patient-specific predictors.

METHODS

Patients 18-88 years old who underwent ACDF from 2011 to 2021 at a multisite academic center and had preoperative lab values within 3 months of surgery were included. Outcomes analyzed included 90-day readmissions, postoperative length of stay, and nonhome discharge. Four machine learning models-Extreme Gradient Boosted Trees, Balanced Random Forest, Elastic-Net Penalized Logistic Regression, and a Neural Network-were trained and evaluated through the Area Under the Curve estimates. Feature importance scores were computed for the highest-performing model per outcome through model-specific metrics.

RESULTS

A total of 1026 cases were included in the analysis cohort. All machine learning models were predictive for outcomes of interest, with the Random Forest algorithm consistently demonstrating the strongest average area under the curve performance, with a peak performance of 0.84 for nonhome discharge. Important features varied per outcome, though age, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification >2, and medical comorbidities were highly weighted in the studied outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning models were successfully applied and predictive of postoperative health utilization after ACDF. Deployment of these tools can assist clinicians in determining high-risk patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Artificial Intelligence for Neurosurgery : Current State and Future Directions

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a field of computer science that equips machines with human-like intelligence and enables them to learn, reason, and solve problems when presented with data in various formats. Neurosurgery is often at the forefront of innovative and disruptive technologies, which have similarly altered the course of acute and chronic diseases. In diagnostic imaging, such as X-rays, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, AI is used to analyze images. The use of robots in the field of neurosurgery is also increasing. In neurointensive care units, AI is used to analyze data and provide care to critically ill patients. Moreover, AI can be used to predict a patient's prognosis. Several AI applications have already been introduced in the field of neurosurgery, and many more are expected in the near future. Ultimately, it is our responsibility to keep pace with this evolution to provide meaningful outcomes and personalize each patient's care. Rather than blindly relying on AI in the future, neurosurgeons should gain a thorough understanding of it and use it to enhance their patient care.

Robust prediction of nonhome discharge following elective anterior cervical discectomy and fusion using explainable machine learning

PURPOSE

Predict nonhome discharge (NHD) following elective anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) using an explainable machine learning model.

METHODS

2227 patients undergoing elective ACDF from 2008 to 2019 were identified from a single institutional database. A machine learning model was trained on preoperative variables, including demographics, comorbidity indices, and levels fused. The validation technique was repeated stratified K-Fold cross validation with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) statistic as the performance metric. Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values were calculated to provide further explainability regarding the model's decision making.

RESULTS

The preoperative model performed with an AUROC of 0.83 ± 0.05. SHAP scores revealed the most pertinent risk factors to be age, medicare insurance, and American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score. Interaction analysis demonstrated that female patients over 65 with greater fusion levels were more likely to undergo NHD. Likewise, ASA demonstrated positive interaction effects with female sex, levels fused and BMI.

CONCLUSION

We validated an explainable machine learning model for the prediction of NHD using common preoperative variables. Adding transparency is a key step towards clinical application because it demonstrates that our model's "thinking" aligns with clinical reasoning. Interactive analysis demonstrated that those of age over 65, female sex, higher ASA score, and greater fusion levels were more predisposed to NHD. Age and ASA score were similar in their predictive ability. Machine learning may be used to predict NHD, and can assist surgeons with patient counseling or early discharge planning.

A machine learning approach to high-risk cardiac surgery risk scoring

INTRODUCTION

In patients undergoing high-risk cardiac surgery, the uncertainty of outcome may complicate the decision process to intervene. To augment decision-making, a machine learning approach was used to determine weighted personalized factors contributing to mortality.

METHODS

American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was queried for cardiac surgery patients with predicted mortality ≥10% between 2012 and 2019. Multiple machine learning models were investigated, with significant predictors ultimately used in gradient boosting machine (GBM) modeling. GBM-trained data were then used for local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) modeling to provide individual patient-specific mortality prediction.

RESULTS

A total of 194 patient deaths among 1291 high-risk cardiac surgeries were included. GBM performance was superior to other model approaches. The top five factors contributing to mortality in LIME modeling were preoperative dialysis, emergent cases, Hispanic ethnicity, steroid use, and ventilator dependence. LIME results individualized patient factors with model probability and explanation of fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of machine learning techniques provides individualized predicted mortality and identifies contributing factors in high-risk cardiac surgery. Employment of this modeling to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons database may provide individualized risk factors contributing to mortality.

Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models to Predict Readmission After Colorectal Surgery

BACKGROUND

Readmission after colorectal surgery is common and often implies complications for patients and costs for hospitals. Previous works have created predictive models using logistic regression for this outcome but have shown limited accuracy. Machine learning has shown promise in improving predictions by identifying non-linear patterns in data. We sought to create a more accurate predictive model for readmission after colorectal surgery using machine learning.

METHODS

Patients who underwent colorectal surgery were identified in the National Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database including years 2012-2019 and split into training, validation, and test sets. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days of surgery. Three types of machine learning models were created, including random forest (RF), gradient boosting (XGB), and neural network (NN). A logistic regression (LR) model was also created for comparison. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The dataset included 213,827 patients after application of exclusion criteria. A total of 23,083 (10.8%) of patients experienced readmission. NN obtained an AUROC of 0.751 (95% CI 0.743-0.759), compared with 0.684 (95% CI 0.676-0.693) for LR. RF and XGB performed similarly with AUROCs of 0.749 (95% CI 0.741-0.757) and 0.745 (95% CI 0.737-0.753) respectively. Ileus, index admission length of stay, organ-space surgical site infection present at time of surgery, and ostomy placement were identified as the most contributory variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning approaches outperformed traditional statistical methods in the prediction of readmission after colorectal surgery. After external validation, this improved prediction model could be used to target interventions to reduce readmission rate.

Machine learning predicts improvement of functional outcomes in traumatic brain injury patients after inpatient rehabilitation

Survivors of traumatic brain injury (TBI) have an unpredictable clinical course. This unpredictability makes clinical resource allocation for clinicians and anticipatory guidance for patients difficult. Historically, experienced clinicians and traditional statistical models have insufficiently considered all available clinical information to predict functional outcomes for a TBI patient. Here, we harness artificial intelligence and apply machine learning and statistical models to predict the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) scores after rehabilitation for traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. Tree-based algorithmic analysis of 629 TBI patients admitted to a large acute rehabilitation facility showed statistically significant improvement in motor and cognitive FIM scores at discharge.

Artificial intelligence in spine care: current applications and future utility

PURPOSE

The field of artificial intelligence is ever growing and the applications of machine learning in spine care are continuously advancing. Given the advent of the intelligence-based spine care model, understanding the evolution of computation as it applies to diagnosis, treatment, and adverse event prediction is of great importance. Therefore, the current review sought to synthesize findings from the literature at the interface of artificial intelligence and spine research.

METHODS

A narrative review was performed based on the literature of three databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Scopus) from January 2015 to March 2021 that examined historical and recent advancements in the understanding of artificial intelligence and machine learning in spine research. Studies were appraised for their role in, or description of, advancements within image recognition and predictive modeling for spinal research. Only English articles that fulfilled inclusion criteria were ultimately incorporated in this review.

RESULTS

This review briefly summarizes the history and applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning in spine. Three basic machine learning training paradigms: supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforced learning are also discussed. Artificial intelligence and machine learning have been utilized in almost every facet of spine ranging from localization and segmentation techniques in spinal imaging to pathology specific algorithms which include but not limited to; preoperative risk assessment of postoperative complications, screening algorithms for patients at risk of osteoporosis and clustering analysis to identify subgroups within adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. The future of artificial intelligence and machine learning in spine surgery is also discussed with focusing on novel algorithms, data collection techniques and increased utilization of automated systems.

CONCLUSION

Improvements to modern-day computing and accessibility to various imaging modalities allow for innovative discoveries that may arise, for example, from management. Given the imminent future of AI in spine surgery, it is of great importance that practitioners continue to inform themselves regarding AI, its goals, use, and progression. In the future, it will be critical for the spine specialist to be able to discern the utility of novel AI research, particularly as it continues to pervade facets of everyday spine surgery.

Artificial Intelligence-Driven Prediction Modeling and Decision Making in Spine Surgery Using Hybrid Machine Learning Models

Healthcare systems worldwide generate vast amounts of data from many different sources. Although of high complexity for a human being, it is essential to determine the patterns and minor variations in the genomic, radiological, laboratory, or clinical data that reliably differentiate phenotypes or allow high predictive accuracy in health-related tasks. Convolutional neural networks (CNN) are increasingly applied to image data for various tasks. Its use for non-imaging data becomes feasible through different modern machine learning techniques, converting non-imaging data into images before inputting them into the CNN model. Considering also that healthcare providers do not solely use one data modality for their decisions, this approach opens the door for multi-input/mixed data models which use a combination of patient information, such as genomic, radiological, and clinical data, to train a hybrid deep learning model. Thus, this reflects the main characteristic of artificial intelligence: simulating natural human behavior. The present review focuses on key advances in machine and deep learning, allowing for multi-perspective pattern recognition across the entire information set of patients in spine surgery. This is the first review of artificial intelligence focusing on hybrid models for deep learning applications in spine surgery, to the best of our knowledge. This is especially interesting as future tools are unlikely to use solely one data modality. The techniques discussed could become important in establishing a new approach to decision-making in spine surgery based on three fundamental pillars: (1) patient-specific, (2) artificial intelligence-driven, (3) integrating multimodal data. The findings reveal promising research that already took place to develop multi-input mixed-data hybrid decision-supporting models. Their implementation in spine surgery may hence be only a matter of time.

The State of Machine Learning in Spine Surgery: A Systematic Review

STUDY DESIGN

This was a systematic review of existing literature.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate the current state-of-the-art trends and utilization of machine learning in the field of spine surgery.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The past decade has seen a rise in the clinical use of machine learning in many fields including diagnostic radiology and oncology. While studies have been performed that specifically pertain to spinal surgery, there have been relatively few aggregate reviews of the existing scientific literature as applied to clinical spine surgery.

METHODS

This study utilized Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the scientific literature from 2009 to 2019 with syntax specific for machine learning and spine surgery applications. Specific data was extracted from the available literature including algorithm application, algorithms tested, database type and size, algorithm training method, and outcome of interest.

RESULTS

A total of 44 studies met inclusion criteria, of which the majority were level III evidence. Studies were grouped into 4 general types: diagnostic tools, clinical outcome prediction, surgical assessment tools, and decision support tools. Across studies, a wide swath of algorithms were used, which were trained across multiple disparate databases. There were no studies identified that assessed the ethical implementation or patient perceptions of machine learning in clinical care.

CONCLUSIONS

The results reveal the broad range of clinical applications and methods used to create machine learning algorithms for use in the field of spine surgery. Notable disparities exist in algorithm choice, database characteristics, and training methods. Ongoing research is needed to make machine learning operational on a large scale.

Supervised Machine Learning for Predicting Length of Stay After Lumbar Arthrodesis: A Comprehensive Artificial Intelligence Approach

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have evaluated the utility of machine learning techniques to predict and classify outcomes, such as length of stay (LOS), for lumbar fusion patients. Six supervised machine learning algorithms may be able to predict and classify whether a patient will experience a short or long hospital LOS after lumbar fusion surgery with a high degree of accuracy.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program between 2009 and 2018. Demographic and comorbidity information was collected for patients who underwent anterior, anterolateral, or lateral transverse process technique arthrodesis procedure; anterior lumbar interbody fusion (ALIF); posterior, posterolateral, or lateral transverse process technique arthrodesis procedure; posterior lumbar interbody fusion/transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF/TLIF); and posterior fusion procedure posterior spine fusion (PSF). Machine learning algorithmic analyses were done with the scikit-learn package in Python on a high-performance computing cluster. In the total sample, 85% of patients were used for training the models, whereas the remaining patients were used for testing the models. C-statistic area under the curve and prediction accuracy (PA) were calculated for each of the models to determine their accuracy in correctly classifying the test cases.

RESULTS

In total, 12,915 ALIF patients, 27,212 PLIF/TLIF patients, and 23,406 PSF patients were included in the algorithmic analyses. The patient factors most strongly associated with LOS were sex, ethnicity, dialysis, and disseminated cancer. The machine learning algorithms yielded area under the curve values of between 0.673 and 0.752 (PA: 69.6% to 80.1%) for ALIF, 0.673 and 0.729 (PA: 66.0% to 81.3%) for PLIF/TLIF, and 0.698 and 0.749 (PA: 69.9% to 80.4%) for PSF.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning classification algorithms were able to accurately predict long LOS for ALIF, PLIF/TLIF, and PSF patients. Supervised machine learning algorithms may be useful in clinical and administrative settings. These data may additionally help inform predictive analytic models and assist in setting patient expectations.

LEVEL III

Diagnostic study, retrospective cohort study.

Machine learning and artificial intelligence in research and healthcare✰,✰✰

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a broad term referring to the application of computational algorithms that can analyze large data sets to classify, predict, or gain useful conclusions. Under the umbrella of AI is machine learning (ML). ML is the process of building or learning statistical models using previously observed real world data to predict outcomes, or categorize observations based on 'training' provided by humans. These predictions are then applied to future data, all the while folding in the new data into its perpetually improving and calibrated statistical model. The future of AI and ML in healthcare research is exciting and expansive. AI and ML are becoming cornerstones in the medical and healthcare-research domains and are integral in our continued processing and capitalization of robust patient EMR data. Considerations for the use and application of ML in healthcare settings include assessing the quality of data inputs and decision-making that serve as the foundations of the ML model, ensuring the end-product is interpretable, transparent, and ethical concerns are considered throughout the development process. The current and future applications of ML include improving the quality and quantity of data collected from EMRs to improve registry data, utilizing these robust datasets to improve and standardized research protocols and outcomes, clinical decision-making applications, natural language processing and improving the fundamentals of value-based care, to name only a few.

Artificial Intelligence Predicts Cost After Ambulatory Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction

Purpose

To develop and internally validate a machine-learning algorithm to reliably predict cost after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR).

Methods

A retrospective review of the New York State Ambulatory Surgery and Services database was performed to identify patients who underwent elective ACLR from 2015 to 2016. Features included in initial models consisted of patient characteristics (age, sex, insurance status, income, medical comorbidities as classified by the Clinical Classifications Software diagnosis code) as well as intraoperative variables (type of anesthesia and procedure-specific factors). Models were generated to predict total charges using 4 algorithms: random forest, extreme gradient boost, elastic net penalized regression, and support vector machines with radial kernels. Training was performed with 10-fold cross-validation followed by internal validation via 0.632 bootstrapping. Model discriminative performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration, and the Brier score. Decision curve analysis was performed to demonstrate the net benefit of using the final model in practice.

Results

In total, 7,311 patients undergoing ambulatory ACLR were included. The random forest model demonstrated the best performance assessed via internal validation (area under the curve = 0.85), calibration, and the Brier score (0.208). Cost incurred was influenced by anesthesia type, operating room time, and number of chronic comorbidities. Decision curve analysis revealed a net benefit for use of the random forest model and the model was integrated into a web-based open-access application.

Conclusions

The random forest model predicted cost after ambulatory ACLR using a large, statewide database with good performance. The top variables found to predict increased charges were general anesthesia, operating room time, meniscal repair, self-pay insurance, patient neighborhood characteristics, and number of chronic conditions.

Level of Evidence

III, retrospective cohort study.

Predictive modeling for 14-day unplanned hospital readmission risk by using machine learning algorithms

BACKGROUND

Early unplanned hospital readmissions are associated with increased harm to patients, increased medical costs, and negative hospital reputation. With the identification of at-risk patients, a crucial step toward improving care, appropriate interventions can be adopted to prevent readmission. This study aimed to build machine learning models to predict 14-day unplanned readmissions.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on 37,091 consecutive hospitalized adult patients with 55,933 discharges between September 1, 2018, and August 31, 2019, in an 1193-bed university hospital. Patients who were aged < 20 years, were admitted for cancer-related treatment, participated in clinical trial, were discharged against medical advice, died during admission, or lived abroad were excluded. Predictors for analysis included 7 categories of variables extracted from hospital's medical record dataset. In total, four machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and categorical boosting, were used to build classifiers for prediction. The performance of prediction models for 14-day unplanned readmission risk was evaluated using precision, recall, F1-score, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).

RESULTS

In total, 24,722 patients were included for the analysis. The mean age of the cohort was 57.34 ± 18.13 years. The 14-day unplanned readmission rate was 1.22%. Among the 4 machine learning algorithms selected, Catboost had the best average performance in fivefold cross-validation (precision: 0.9377, recall: 0.5333, F1-score: 0.6780, AUROC: 0.9903, and AUPRC: 0.7515). After incorporating 21 most influential features in the Catboost model, its performance improved (precision: 0.9470, recall: 0.5600, F1-score: 0.7010, AUROC: 0.9909, and AUPRC: 0.7711).

CONCLUSIONS

Our models reliably predicted 14-day unplanned readmissions and were explainable. They can be used to identify patients with a high risk of unplanned readmission based on influential features, particularly features related to diagnoses. The operation of the models with physiological indicators also corresponded to clinical experience and literature. Identifying patients at high risk with these models can enable early discharge planning and transitional care to prevent readmissions. Further studies should include additional features that may enable further sensitivity in identifying patients at a risk of early unplanned readmissions.

Development and validation of a novel predictive model and web calculator for evaluating transfusion risk after spinal fusion for spinal tuberculosis: a retrospective cohort study

Objectives

The incidence and adverse events of postoperative blood transfusion in spinal tuberculosis (TB) have attracted increasing attention. Our purpose was to develop a prediction model to evaluate blood transfusion risk after spinal fusion (SF) for spinal TB.

Methods

Nomogram and machine learning algorithms, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP), Naive Bayesian (NB), k-nearest neighbors (K-NN) and random forest (RF), were constructed to identified predictors of blood transfusion from all spinal TB cases treated by SF in our department between May 2010 and April 2020. The prediction performance of the models was evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation. We calculated the average AUC and the maximum AUC, then demonstrated the ROC curve with maximum AUC.

Results

The collected cohort ultimately was consisted of 152 patients, where 56 required allogeneic blood transfusions. The predictors were surgical duration, preoperative Hb, preoperative ABL, preoperative MCHC, number of fused vertebrae, IBL, and anticoagulant history. We obtained the average AUC of nomogram (0.75), SVM (0.62), k-NM (0.65), DT (0.56), NB (0.74), MLP (0.56) and RF (0.72). An interactive web calculator based on this model has been provided (https://drwenleli.shinyapps.io/STTapp/).

Conclusions

We confirmed seven independent risk factors affecting blood transfusion and diagramed them with the nomogram and web calculator.

Machine Learning Prediction of Length of Stay in Adult Spinal Deformity Patients Undergoing Posterior Spine Fusion Surgery

(1) Background: Length of stay (LOS) is a commonly reported metric used to assess surgical success, patient outcomes, and economic impact. The focus of this study is to use a variety of machine learning algorithms to reliably predict whether a patient undergoing posterior spinal fusion surgery treatment for Adult Spine Deformity (ASD) will experience a prolonged LOS. (2) Methods: Patients undergoing treatment for ASD with posterior spinal fusion surgery were selected from the American College of Surgeon's NSQIP dataset. Prolonged LOS was defined as a LOS greater than or equal to 9 days. Data was analyzed with the Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting functions in Python with the Sci-Kit learn package. Prediction accuracy and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated. (3) Results: 1281 posterior patients were analyzed. The five algorithms had prediction accuracies between 68% and 83% for posterior cases (AUC: 0.566-0.821). Multivariable regression indicated that increased Work Relative Value Units (RVU), elevated American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, and longer operating times were linked to longer LOS. (4) Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms can predict if patients will experience an increased LOS following ASD surgery. Therefore, medical resources can be more appropriately allocated towards patients who are at risk of prolonged LOS.

Utility of machine learning algorithms in degenerative cervical and lumbar spine disease: a systematic review

Machine learning is a rapidly evolving field that offers physicians an innovative and comprehensive mechanism to examine various aspects of patient data. Cervical and lumbar degenerative spine disorders are commonly age-related disease processes that can utilize machine learning to improve patient outcomes with careful patient selection and intervention. The aim of this study is to examine the current applications of machine learning in cervical and lumbar degenerative spine disease. A systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A search of PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Cochrane was conducted through May 31st, 2020, using the following terms: "artificial intelligence" OR "machine learning" AND "neurosurgery" AND "spine." Studies were included if original research on machine learning was utilized in patient care for degenerative spine disease, including radiographic machine learning applications. Studies focusing on robotic applications in neurosurgery, navigation, or stereotactic radiosurgery were excluded. The literature search identified 296 papers, with 35 articles meeting inclusion criteria. There were nine studies involving cervical degenerative spine disease and 26 studies on lumbar degenerative spine disease. The majority of studies for both cervical and lumbar spines utilized machine learning for the prediction of postoperative outcomes, with 5 (55.6%) and 15 (61.5%) studies, respectively. Machine learning applications focusing on degenerative lumbar spine greatly outnumber the current volume of cervical spine studies. The current research in lumbar spine also demonstrates more advanced clinical applications of radiographic, diagnostic, and predictive machine learning models.

Prediction of Major Complications and Readmission After Lumbar Spinal Fusion: A Machine Learning-Driven Approach

BACKGROUND

Given the significant cost and morbidity of patients undergoing lumbar fusion, accurate preoperative risk-stratification would be of great utility. We aim to develop a machine learning model for prediction of major complications and readmission after lumbar fusion. We also aim to identify the factors most important to performance of each tested model.

METHODS

We identified 38,788 adult patients who underwent lumbar fusion at any California hospital between 2015 and 2017. The primary outcome was major perioperative complication or readmission within 30 days. We build logistic regression and advanced machine learning models: XGBoost, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Brier score, respectively.

RESULTS

There were 4470 major complications (11.5%). The XGBoost algorithm demonstrates the highest discrimination of the machine learning models, outperforming regression. The variables most important to XGBoost performance include angina pectoris, metastatic cancer, teaching hospital status, history of concussion, comorbidity burden, and workers' compensation insurance. Teaching hospital status and concussion history were not found to be important for regression.

CONCLUSIONS

We report a machine learning algorithm for prediction of major complications and readmission after lumbar fusion that outperforms logistic regression. Notably, the predictors most important for XGBoost differed from those for regression. The superior performance of XGBoost may be due to the ability of advanced machine learning methods to capture relationships between variables that regression is unable to detect. This tool may identify and address potentially modifiable risk factors, helping risk-stratify patients and decrease complication rates.

Application of machine learning in predicting hospital readmissions: a scoping review of the literature

Background

Advances in machine learning (ML) provide great opportunities in the prediction of hospital readmission. This review synthesizes the literature on ML methods and their performance for predicting hospital readmission in the US.

Methods

This review was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) Statement. The extraction of items was also guided by the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Electronic databases PUBMED, MEDLINE, and EMBASE were systematically searched from January 1, 2015, through December 10, 2019. The articles were imported into COVIDENCE online software for title/abstract screening and full-text eligibility. Observational studies using ML techniques for hospital readmissions among US patients were eligible for inclusion. Articles without a full text available in the English language were excluded. A qualitative synthesis included study characteristics, ML algorithms utilized, and model validation, and quantitative analysis assessed model performance. Model performances in terms of Area Under the Curve (AUC) were analyzed using R software. Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool was used to assess the quality of the reviewed studies.

Results

Of 522 citations reviewed, 43 studies met the inclusion criteria. A majority of the studies used electronic health records (24, 56%), followed by population-based data sources (15, 35%) and administrative claims data (4, 9%). The most common algorithms were tree-based methods (23, 53%), neural network (NN) (14, 33%), regularized logistic regression (12, 28%), and support vector machine (SVM) (10, 23%). Most of these studies (37, 85%) were of high quality. A majority of these studies (28, 65%) reported ML algorithms with an AUC above 0.70. There was a range of variability within AUC reported by these studies with a median of 0.68 (IQR: 0.64–0.76; range: 0.50–0.90).

Conclusions

The ML algorithms involving tree-based methods, NN, regularized logistic regression, and SVM are commonly used to predict hospital readmission in the US. Further research is needed to compare the performance of ML algorithms for hospital readmission prediction.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01284-z.

Using machine learning methods to predict nonhome discharge after elective total shoulder arthroplasty

Background

Machine learning has shown potential in accurately predicting outcomes after orthopedic surgery, thereby allowing for improved patient selection, risk stratification, and preoperative planning. This study sought to develop machine learning models to predict nonhome discharge after total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA).

Methods

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for patients who underwent elective TSA from 2012 to 2018. Boosted decision tree and artificial neural networks (ANN) machine learning models were developed to predict non-home discharge and 30-day postoperative complications. Model performance was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and overall accuracy (%). Multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables that were significantly associated with the predicted outcomes.

Results

There were 21,544 elective TSA cases identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program registry from 2012 to 2018 that met inclusion criteria. Multivariate logistic regression identified several variables associated with increased risk of nonhome discharge including female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 2.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.53-3.17; P < .001), age older than 70 years (OR = 3.19; 95% CI = 2.86-3.57; P < .001), American Society of Anesthesiologists classification 3 or greater (OR = 2.70; 95% CI = 2.41-2.03; P < .001), prolonged operative time (OR = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.20-1.58; P < .001), as well as history of diabetes (OR = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.38-1.75; P < .001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.46-2.01; P < .001), congestive heart failure (OR = 2.65; 95% CI = 1.72-4.01; P < .001), hypertension (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.20-1.52; P = .004), dialysis (OR = 3.58; 95% CI = 2.01-6.39; P = .002), wound infection (OR = 5.67; 95% CI = 3.46-9.29; P < .001), steroid use (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.18-1.74; P = .010), and bleeding disorder (OR = 1.84; 95% CI = 1.45-2.34; P < .001). The boosted decision tree model for predicting nonhome discharge had an AUC of 0.788 and an overall accuracy of 90.3%. The ANN model for predicting nonhome discharge had an AUC of 0.851 and an overall accuracy of 89.9%. For predicting the occurrence of 1 or more postoperative complications, the boosted decision tree model had an AUC of 0.795 and an overall accuracy of 95.5%. The ANN model yielded an AUC of 0.788 and an overall accuracy of 92.5%.

Conclusions

Both the boosted decision tree and ANN models performed well in predicting nonhome discharge with similar overall accuracy, but the ANN had higher discriminative ability. Based on the findings of this study, machine learning has the potential to accurately predict nonhome discharge after elective TSA. Surgeons can use such tools to guide patient expectations and to improve preoperative discharge planning, with the ultimate goal of decreasing hospital length of stay and improving cost-efficiency.

Prediction Models in Degenerative Spine Surgery: A Systematic Review

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

OBJECTIVES

To review the existing literature of prediction models in degenerative spinal surgery.

METHODS

Review of PubMed/Medline and Embase databases was conducted to identify articles between January 1, 2000 and March 1, 2020 that reported prediction model performance for outcomes following elective degenerative spine surgery.

RESULTS

Thirty-one articles were included. Twenty studies were of thoracolumbar, 5 were of cervical, and 6 included all spine patients. Five studies were externally validated. Prediction models were developed using machine learning (42%) and logistic regression (42%) as well as other techniques. Web-based calculators were included in 45% of published articles. Various outcomes were investigated, including complications, infection, length of stay, discharge disposition, reoperation, readmission, disability score, back pain, leg pain, return to work, and opioid dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant heterogeneity exists in methods used to develop prediction models of postoperative outcomes after degenerative spine surgery. Most internally validate their scores, but a few have been externally validated. Areas under the curve for most models range from 0.6 to 0.9. Techniques for development are becoming increasingly sophisticated with different machine learning tools. With further external validation, these models can be deployed online for patient, physician, and administrative use, and have the potential to optimize outcomes and maximize value in spine surgery.

Predicting Readmission After Anterior, Posterior, and Posterior Interbody Lumbar Spinal Fusion: A Neural Network Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

Readmission after spine surgery is costly and a relatively common occurrence. Previous research identified several risk factors for readmission; however, the conclusions remain equivocal. Machine learning algorithms offer a unique perspective in analysis of risk factors for readmission and can help predict the likelihood of this occurrence. This study evaluated a neural network (NN), a supervised machine learning technique, to determine whether it could predict readmission after 3 lumbar fusion procedures.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried between 2009 and 2018. Patients who had undergone anterior, lateral, and/or posterior lumbar fusion were included in the study. The Python scikit Learn package was used to run the NN algorithm. A multivariate regression was performed to determine risk factors for readmission.

RESULTS

There were 63,533 patients analyzed (12,915 anterior lumbar interbody fusion, 27,212 posterior lumbar interbody fusion, and 23,406 posterior spinal fusion cases). The NN algorithm was able to successfully predict 30-day readmission for 94.6% of anterior lumbar interbody fusion, 94.0% of posterior lumbar interbody fusion, and 92.6% of posterior spinal fusion cases with area under the curve values of 0.64-0.65. Multivariate regression indicated that age >65 years and American Society of Anesthesiologists class >II were linked to increased risk for readmission for all 3 procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

The accurate metrics presented indicate the capability for NN algorithms to predict readmission after lumbar arthrodesis. Moreover, the results of this study serve as a catalyst for further research into the utility of machine learning in spine surgery.

Utility of prediction model score: a proposed tool to standardize the performance and generalizability of clinical predictive models based on systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics and performance of current prediction models in the fields of spine metastasis and degenerative spine disease to create a scoring system that allows direct comparison of the prediction models.

METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed and Embase was performed to identify relevant studies that included either the proposal of a prediction model or an external validation of a previously proposed prediction model with 1-year outcomes. Characteristics of the original study and discriminative performance of external validations were then assigned points based on thresholds from the overall cohort.

RESULTS

Nine prediction models were included in the spine metastasis category, while 6 prediction models were included in the degenerative spine category. After assigning the proposed utility of prediction model score to the spine metastasis prediction models, only 1 reached the grade of excellent, while 2 were graded as good, 3 as fair, and 3 as poor. Of the 6 included degenerative spine models, 1 reached the excellent grade, while 3 studies were graded as good, 1 as fair, and 1 as poor.

CONCLUSIONS

As interest in utilizing predictive analytics in spine surgery increases, there is a concomitant increase in the number of published prediction models that differ in methodology and performance. Prior to applying these models to patient care, these models must be evaluated. To begin addressing this issue, the authors proposed a grading system that compares these models based on various metrics related to their original design as well as internal and external validation. Ultimately, this may hopefully aid clinicians in determining the relative validity and usability of a given model.

Establishment and assessment of a nomogram for predicting blood transfusion risk in posterior lumbar spinal fusion

Background

The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors and develop a nomogram for blood transfusions after posterior lumbar spinal fusion (PSL).

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, single-center study based on 885 patients receiving PSL, and data was obtained from May 2015 to September 2019. Univariable and multivariable logistics regression analysis were conducted to identify risk factors for blood transfusion, and a nomogram was constructed to individually evaluate the risk of blood transfusion. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness were validated by the receiver operating characteristics (ROC), C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis, respectively. Bootstrapping validation was performed to assess the performance of the model.

Results

Of 885 patients, 885 were enrolled in the final study population, and 289 received blood transfusion. Statistical analyses showed that low preoperative hemoglobin (Hb), longer time to surgery, operative time, levels of fusion > 1, longer surgery duration, and higher total intraoperative blood loss (IBL) were the risk factors for transfusion. The C-index was 0.898 (95% CI 0.847–0.949) in this dataset and 0.895 in bootstrapping validation, respectively. Calibration curve showed satisfied discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) shown that the nomogram was clinical utility.

Conclusions

In summary, we investigated the relationship between the blood transfusion requirement and predictors: levels of fusion, operative time, time to surgery, total intraoperative EBL, and preoperative Hb level. Our nomogram with a robust performance in the assessment of risk of transfusion can contribute to clinicians in making clinical decision. However, external validation is still needed in the further.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13018-020-02053-2.

A narrative review of machine learning as promising revolution in clinical practice of scoliosis

Machine learning (ML), as an advanced domain of artificial intelligence (AI), is progressively changing our view of the world. By implementing its algorithms, our ability to detect previously undiscoverable patterns in data has the potential to revolutionize predictive analytics. Scoliosis, as a relatively specialized branch in the spine field, mainly covers the pediatric, adult and the elderly populations, and its diagnosis and treatment remain difficult. With recent efforts and interdisciplinary cooperation, ML has been widely applied to investigate issues related to scoliosis, and surprisingly augment a surgeon's ability in clinical practice related to scoliosis. Meanwhile, ML models penetrate in every stage of the clinical practice procedure of scoliosis. In this review, we first present a brief description of the application of ML in the clinical practice procedures regarding scoliosis, including screening, diagnosis and classification, surgical decision making, intraoperative manipulation, complication prediction, prognosis prediction and rehabilitation. Meanwhile, the ML models and specific applications adopted are presented. Additionally, current limitations and future directions are briefly discussed regarding its use in the field of scoliosis. We believe that the implementation of ML is a promising revolution to assist surgeons in all aspects of clinical practice related to scoliosis in the near future.

Machine learning models to predict length of stay and discharge destination in complex head and neck surgery

BACKGROUND

This study develops machine learning (ML) algorithms that use preoperative-only features to predict discharge-to-nonhome-facility (DNHF) and length-of-stay (LOS) following complex head and neck surgeries.

METHODS

Patients undergoing laryngectomy or composite tissue excision followed by free tissue transfer were extracted from the 2005 to 2017 NSQIP database.

RESULTS

Among the 2786 included patients, DNHF and mean LOS were 421 (15.1%) and 11.7 ± 8.8 days. Four classification models for predicting DNHF with high specificities (range, 0.80-0.84) were developed. The generalized linear and gradient boosting machine models performed best with receiver operating characteristic (ROC), accuracy, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.72-0.73, 0.75-0.76, and 0.88-0.89. Four regression models for predicting LOS in days were developed, where all performed similarly with mean absolute error and root mean-squared errors of 3.95-3.98 and 5.14-5.16. Both models were developed into an encrypted web-based interface: https://uci-ent.shinyapps.io/head-neck/.

CONCLUSION

Novel and proof-of-concept ML models to predict DNHF and LOS were developed and published as web-based interfaces.

Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence: a field guide for neurosurgeons

Big data has transformed into a trend phrase in healthcare and neurosurgery, becoming a pervasive and inescapable phrase in everyday life. The upsurge in big data applications is a direct consequence of the drastic boom in information technology as well as the growing number of internet-connected devices called the Internet of Things in healthcare. Compared with business, marketing, and other sectors, healthcare applications are lagging due to a lack of technical knowledge among healthcare workers, technological limitations in acquiring and analyzing the data, and improper governance of healthcare big data. Despite these limitations, the medical literature is flooded with big data-related articles, and most of these are filled with abstruse terminologies such as machine learning, artificial intelligence, artificial neural network, and algorithm. Many of the recent articles are restricted to neurosurgical registries, creating a false impression that big data is synonymous with registries. Others advocate that the utilization of big data will be the panacea to all healthcare problems and research in the future. Without a proper understanding of these principles, it becomes easy to get lost without the ability to differentiate hype from reality. To that end, the authors give a brief narrative of big data analysis in neurosurgery and review its applications, limitations, and the challenges it presents for neurosurgeons and healthcare professionals naive to this field. Awareness of these basic concepts will allow neurosurgeons to understand the literature regarding big data, enabling them to make better decisions and deliver personalized care.

A Review on the Use of Artificial Intelligence in Spinal Diseases

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used in a wide variety of real-world applications and it emerges as a promising field across various branches of medicine. This review aims to identify the role of ANNs in spinal diseases. Literature were searched from electronic databases of Scopus and Medline from 1993 to 2020 with English publications reported on the application of ANNs in spinal diseases. The search strategy was set as the combinations of the following keywords: “artificial neural networks,” “spine,” “back pain,” “prognosis,” “grading,” “classification,” “prediction,” “segmentation,” “biomechanics,” “deep learning,” and “imaging.” The main findings of the included studies were summarized, with an emphasis on the recent advances in spinal diseases and its application in the diagnostic and prognostic procedures. According to the search strategy, a set of 3,653 articles were retrieved from Medline and Scopus databases. After careful evaluation of the abstracts, the full texts of 89 eligible papers were further examined, of which 79 articles satisfied the inclusion criteria of this review. Our review indicates several applications of ANNs in the management of spinal diseases including (1) diagnosis and assessment of spinal disease progression in the patients with low back pain, perioperative complications, and readmission rate following spine surgery; (2) enhancement of the clinically relevant information extracted from radiographic images to predict Pfirrmann grades, Modic changes, and spinal stenosis grades on magnetic resonance images automatically; (3) prediction of outcomes in lumbar spinal stenosis, lumbar disc herniation and patient-reported outcomes in lumbar fusion surgery, and preoperative planning and intraoperative assistance; and (4) its application in the biomechanical assessment of spinal diseases. The evidence suggests that ANNs can be successfully used for optimizing the diagnosis, prognosis and outcome prediction in spinal diseases. Therefore, incorporation of ANNs into spine clinical practice may improve clinical decision making.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Quality and Safety

As exponential expansion of computing capacity converges with unsustainable health care spending, a hopeful opportunity has emerged: the use of artificial intelligence to enhance health care quality and safety. These computer-based algorithms can perform the intricate and extremely complex mathematical operations of classification or regression on immense amounts of data to detect intricate and potentially previously unknown patterns in that data, with the end result of creating predictive models that can be utilized in clinical practice. Such models are designed to distinguish relevant from irrelevant data regarding a particular patient; choose appropriate perioperative care, intervention or surgery; predict cost of care and reimbursement; and predict future outcomes on a variety of anchored measures. If and when one is brought to fruition, an artificial intelligence platform could serve as the first legitimate clinical decision-making tool in spine care, delivering on the value equation while serving as a source for improving physician performance and promoting appropriate, efficient care in this era of financial uncertainty in health care.

Applications of Machine Learning Using Electronic Medical Records in Spine Surgery

Developments in machine learning in recent years have precipitated a surge in research on the applications of artificial intelligence within medicine. Machine learning algorithms are beginning to impact medicine broadly, and the field of spine surgery is no exception. Electronic medical records are a key source of medical data that can be leveraged for the creation of clinically valuable machine learning algorithms. This review examines the current state of machine learning using electronic medical records as it applies to spine surgery. Studies across the electronic medical record data domains of imaging, text, and structured data are reviewed. Discussed applications include clinical prognostication, preoperative planning, diagnostics, and dynamic clinical assistance, among others. The limitations and future challenges for machine learning research using electronic medical records are also discussed.

Predictive modeling in spine surgery

As the cost of healthcare in the United States increases at an unsustainable rate, health-policy leaders are looking towards innovative ways to maximize value in delivery of care. Incorporating technology, such as artificial intelligence/machine-learning, to assist physicians in decision-making and predicting outcomes, on a real-time basis, is a major topic of discussion. While machine learning is gradually pulling traction in the medical community, it still remains a nascent field in the realm of spine surgery. The current review aims to gather current literature discussing the validity and applicability of machine-learning models in spine surgery.