Kala-azar and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis, Assam, India

Trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis cases in a highly-endemic focus of Bihar, India: an investigation based on GIS tools

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Bihar State (India) continues to be endemic, despite the existence of effective treatment and a vector control program to control disease morbidity. A clear understanding of spatio-temporal distribution of VL may improve surveillance and control implementation. This study explored the trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of VL endemicity at a meso-scale level in Vaishali District, based on geographical information systems (GIS) tools and spatial statistical analysis.

Methods

A GIS database was used to integrate the VL case data from the study area between 2009 and 2014. All cases were spatially linked at a meso-scale level. Geospatial techniques, such as GIS-layer overlaying and mapping, were employed to visualize and detect the spatio-temporal patterns of a VL endemic outbreak across the district. The spatial statistic Moran’s I Index (Moran’s I) was used to simultaneously evaluate spatial-correlation between endemic villages and the spatial distribution patterns based on both the village location and the case incidence rate (CIR). Descriptive statistics such as mean, standard error, confidence intervals and percentages were used to summarize the VL case data.

Results

There were 624 endemic villages with 2719 (average 906 cases/year) VL cases during 2012–2014. The Moran’s I revealed a cluster pattern (P < 0.05) of CIR distribution at the meso-scale level. On average, 68 villages were newly-endemic each year. Of which 93.1% of villages’ endemicity were found to have occurred on the peripheries of the previous year endemic villages. The mean CIR of the endemic villages that were peripheral to the following year newly-endemic villages, compared to all endemic villages of the same year, was higher (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

The results show that the VL endemicity of new villages tends to occur on the periphery of villages endemic in the previous year. High-CIR plays a major role in the spatial dispersion of the VL cases between non-endemic and endemic villages. This information can help achieve VL elimination throughout the Indian subcontinent by improving vector control design and implementation in highly-endemic district.

Transmission Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent - A Systematic Literature Review

Background

As Bangladesh, India and Nepal progress towards visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination, it is important to understand the role of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), VL treatment relapse and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) in transmission.

Methodology/ Principal Finding

We reviewed evidence systematically on ALI, relapse and PKDL. We searched multiple databases to include studies on burden, risk factors, biomarkers, natural history, and infectiveness of ALI, PKDL and relapse. After screening 292 papers, 98 were included covering the years 1942 through 2016. ALI, PKDL and relapse studies lacked a reference standard and appropriate biomarker. The prevalence of ALI was 4–17-fold that of VL. The risk of ALI was higher in VL case contacts. Most infections remained asymptomatic or resolved spontaneously. The proportion of ALI that progressed to VL disease within a year was 1.5–23%, and was higher amongst those with high antibody titres. The natural history of PKDL showed variability; 3.8–28.6% had no past history of VL treatment. The infectiveness of PKDL was 32–53%. The risk of VL relapse was higher with HIV co-infection. Modelling studies predicted a range of scenarios. One model predicted VL elimination was unlikely in the long term with early diagnosis. Another model estimated that ALI contributed to 82% of the overall transmission, VL to 10% and PKDL to 8%. Another model predicted that VL cases were the main driver for transmission. Different models predicted VL elimination if the sandfly density was reduced by 67% by killing the sandfly or by 79% by reducing their breeding sites, or with 4–6y of optimal IRS or 10y of sub-optimal IRS and only in low endemic setting.

Conclusion/ Significance

There is a need for xenodiagnostic and longitudinal studies to understand the potential of ALI and PKDL as reservoirs of infection.

The role of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), PKDL and VL relapse in transmission is unclear as VL elimination is achieved in the Indian subcontinent. ALI, PKDL and relapse studies lacked a reference standard and appropriate biomarker. ALI was 4–17-fold more prevalent than VL. The risk of ALI was higher in VL case contacts. Most infections remained asymptomatic or resolved spontaneously. The natural history of PKDL showed variability. Twenty nine percent had no past history of VL treatment. The risk of VL relapse was higher with HIV co-infection. Modelling studies predicted different effects. Early diagnosis was unlikely to eliminate VL in the long term. ALI was predicted to contribute to 82% of the overall transmission, VL to 10% and PKDL to 8%. Another model predicted that VL cases were the main driver for transmission. VL elimination was predicted if the sandfly density was reduced by 67% by killing the sandfly or by 79% by reducing their breeding sites, or with 4–6y of optimal IRS or 10y of sub-optimal IRS and only in low endemic setting. There is a need for more studies to fully understand the potential of ALI and PKDL as reservoirs of infection.

Challenges for management of post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis and future directions

Post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a skin complication resulting from infection with Leishmania donovani (LD) parasite. It mostly affects individuals who have previously suffered from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused by LD. In some cases, PKDL develops among people infected with LD, but do not show any symptoms of VL. Clinical presentation includes hypopigmented macules/papules/nodules or polymorphic lesions (combination of two or more lesions). Except for skin lesions, PKDL patients are generally healthy and usually do not seek medical care. These patients play an important role in interepidemic transmission of the infection and subsequent VL outbreak. Therefore, proper diagnosis and treatment of PKDL patients is important for the control of VL in endemic countries, especially in the Indian subcontinent where VL is anthroponotic. Here, we report the challenges in the estimation of PKDL burden, its diagnosis, and treatment, and suggest possible solutions based on recent literature, reports, published manuals, and web-based information.