Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus Spread by Short- and Long-Range Transmission, France, 2016-17

Genotypic and phenotypic susceptibility of emerging avian influenza A viruses to neuraminidase and cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitors

Avian influenza outbreaks, including ones caused by highly pathogenic A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses, have devastated animal populations and remain a threat to humans. Risk elements assessed for emerging influenza viruses include their susceptibility to approved antivirals. Here, we screened >20,000 neuraminidase (NA) or polymerase acidic (PA) protein sequences of potentially pandemic A(H5Nx), A(H7Nx), and A(H9N2) viruses that circulated globally in 2010-2023. The frequencies of NA or PA substitutions associated with reduced inhibition (RI) or highly reduced inhibition (HRI) by NA inhibitors (NAIs) (oseltamivir, zanamivir) or a cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor (baloxavir) were low: 0.60% (137/22,713) and 0.62% (126/20,347), respectively. All tested subtypes were susceptible to NAIs and baloxavir at sub-nanomolar concentrations. A(H9N2) viruses were the most susceptible to oseltamivir, with IC50s 3- to 4-fold lower than for other subtypes (median IC50: 0.18 nM; n = 22). NA-I222M conferred RI of A(H5N1) viruses by oseltamivir (with a 26-fold IC50 increase), but NA-S246N did not reduce inhibition. PA-E23G, PA-K34R, PA-I38M/T, and the previously unreported PA-A36T caused RI by baloxavir in all subtypes tested. Avian A(H9N2) viruses endemic in Egyptian poultry predominantly acquired PA-I38V, which causes only a <3-fold decrease in the baloxavir EC50 and fails to meet the RI criteria. PA-E199A/D in A(H7Nx) and A(H9N2) viruses caused a 2- to 4-fold decrease in EC50 (close to the borderline for RI) and should be closely monitored. Our data indicate antiviral susceptibility is high among avian influenza A viruses with pandemic potential and present novel markers of resistance to existing antiviral interventions.

Strong and consistent effects of waterbird composition on HPAI H5 occurrences across Europe

Since 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have been dominating the outbreaks across Europe, causing massive deaths among poultry and wild birds. However, the factors shaping these broad-scale outbreak patterns, especially those related to waterbird community composition, remain unclear. In particular, we do not know whether these risk factors differ from those of other H5 clades. Addressing this knowledge gap is important for predicting and preventing future HPAI outbreaks. Using extensive waterbird survey datasets from about 6883 sites, we here explored the effect of waterbird community composition on HPAI H5Nx (clade 2.3.4.4) spatial patterns in the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 epidemics in Europe, and compared it with the 2005/2006 HPAI H5N1 (clade 2.2) epidemic. We showed that HPAI H5 occurrences in wild birds in the three epidemics were strongly associated with very similar waterbird community attributes, which suggested that, in nature, similar interspecific transmission processes operate between the HPAI H5 subtypes or clades. Importantly, community phylogenetic diversity consistently showed a negative association with H5 occurrence in all three epidemics, suggesting a dilution effect of phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, waterbird community variables showed much weaker associations with HPAI H5Nx occurrence in poultry. Our results demonstrate that models based on previous epidemics can predict future HPAI H5 patterns in wild birds, implying that it is important to include waterbird community factors in future HPAI studies to predict outbreaks and improve surveillance activities.

Bidirectional Movement of Emerging H5N8 Avian Influenza Viruses Between Europe and Asia via Migratory Birds Since Early 2020

Migratory birds play a critical role in the rapid spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus clade 2.3.4.4 across Eurasia. Elucidating the timing and pattern of virus transmission is essential therefore for understanding the spatial dissemination of these viruses. In this study, we surveyed >27,000 wild birds in China, tracked the year-round migration patterns of 20 bird species across China since 2006, and generated new HPAI H5N8 virus genomic data. Using this new data set, we investigated the seasonal transmission dynamics of HPAI H5N8 viruses across Eurasia. We found that introductions of HPAI H5N8 viruses to different Eurasian regions were associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. Moreover, we report a backflow of HPAI H5N8 virus lineages from Europe to Asia, suggesting that Europe acts as both a source and a sink in the global HPAI virus transmission network.

Evaluation of three hemagglutinin-based vaccines for the experimental control of a panzootic clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N8) high pathogenicity avian influenza virus in mule ducks

In France during winter 2016-2017, 487 outbreaks of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 subtype high pathogenicity (HP) avian influenza A virus (AIV) infections were detected in poultry and captive birds. During this epizootic, HPAIV A/decoy duck/France/161105a/2016 (H5N8) was isolated and characterized in an experimental infection transmission model in conventional mule ducks. To investigate options to possibly protect such ducks against this HPAIV, three vaccines were evaluated in controlled conditions. The first experimental vaccine was derived from the hemagglutinin gene of another clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N8) HPAIV. It was injected at three weeks of age, either alone (Vac1) or after a primer injection at day-old (Vac1 + boost). The second vaccine (Vac2) was a commercial bivalent adjuvanted vaccine containing an expressed hemagglutinin modified from a clade 2.3.2 A(H5N1) HPAIV. Vac2 was administered as a single injection at two weeks of age. The third experimental vaccine (Vac3) also incorporated a homologous 2.3.4.4b H5 HA gene and was administered as a single injection at three weeks of age. Ducks were challenged with HPAIV A/decoy duck/France/161105a/2016 (H5N8) at six weeks of age. Post-challenge virus excretion was monitored in vaccinated and control birds every 2-3 days for two weeks using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction and serological analyses (haemagglutination inhibition test against H5N8, H5 ELISA and AIV ELISA) were performed. Vac1 abolished oropharyngeal and cloacal shedding to almost undetectable levels, whereas Vac3 abolished cloacal shedding only (while partially reducing respiratory shedding) and Vac2 only partly reduced the respiratory and intestinal excretion of the challenge virus. These results provided relevant insights in the immunogenicity of recombinant H5 vaccines in mule ducks, a rarely investigated hybrid between Pekin and Muscovy duck species that has played a critical role in the recent H5 HPAI epizootics in France.

Integrating Citizen Scientist Data into the Surveillance System for Avian Influenza Virus, Taiwan

The continuing circulation and reassortment with low-pathogenicity avian influenza Gs/Gd (goose/Guangdong/1996)-like avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has caused huge economic losses and raised public health concerns over the zoonotic potential. Virologic surveillance of wild birds has been suggested as part of a global AIV surveillance system. However, underreporting and biased selection of sampling sites has rendered gaining information about the transmission and evolution of highly pathogenic AIV problematic. We explored the use of the Citizen Scientist eBird database to elucidate the dynamic distribution of wild birds in Taiwan and their potential for AIV exchange with domestic poultry. Through the 2-stage analytical framework, we associated nonignorable risk with 10 species of wild birds with >100 significant positive results. We generated a risk map, which served as the guide for highly pathogenic AIV surveillance. Our methodologic blueprint has the potential to be incorporated into the global AIV surveillance system of wild birds.

Multiple independent introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses during the 2020-2021 epizootic in France

During winter 2020-2021, France and other European countries were severely affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses of the Gs/GD/96 lineage, clade 2.3.4.4b. In total, 519 cases occurred, mainly in domestic waterfowl farms in Southwestern France. Analysis of viral genomic sequences indicated that 3 subtypes of HPAI H5 viruses were detected (H5N1, H5N3, H5N8), but most French viruses belonged to the H5N8 subtype genotype A, as Europe. Phylogenetic analyses of HPAI H5N8 viruses revealed that the French sequences were distributed in 9 genogroups, suggesting 9 independent introductions of H5N8 from wild birds, in addition to the 2 introductions of H5N1 and H5N3.

Phylodynamic analysis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 epidemic in France, 2016-2017

In 2016-2017, France experienced a devastating epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8, with more than 400 outbreaks reported in poultry farms. We analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the epidemic using a structured-coalescent-based phylodynamic approach that combined viral genomic data (n = 196; one viral genome per farm) and epidemiological data. In the process, we estimated viral migration rates between départements (French administrative regions) and the temporal dynamics of the effective viral population size (Ne) in each département. Viral migration rates quantify viral spread between départements and Ne is a population genetic measure of the epidemic size and, in turn, is indicative of the within-département transmission intensity. We extended the phylodynamic analysis with a generalized linear model to assess the impact of multiple factors-including large-scale preventive culling and live-duck movement bans-on viral migration rates and Ne. We showed that the large-scale culling of ducks that was initiated on 4 January 2017 significantly reduced the viral spread between départements. No relationship was found between the viral spread and duck movements between départements. The within-département transmission intensity was found to be weakly associated with the intensity of duck movements within départements. Together, these results indicated that the virus spread in short distances, either between adjacent départements or within départements. Results also suggested that the restrictions on duck transport within départements might not have stopped the viral spread completely. Overall, we demonstrated the usefulness of phylodynamics in characterizing the dynamics of a HPAI epidemic and assessing control measures. This method can be adapted to investigate other epidemics of fast-evolving livestock pathogens.

Methods Combining Genomic and Epidemiological Data in the Reconstruction of Transmission Trees: A Systematic Review

In order to better understand transmission dynamics and appropriately target control and preventive measures, studies have aimed to identify who-infected-whom in actual outbreaks. Numerous reconstruction methods exist, each with their own assumptions, types of data, and inference strategy. Thus, selecting a method can be difficult. Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed the literature for methods combing epidemiological and genomic data in transmission tree reconstruction. We identified 22 methods from the 41 selected articles. We defined three families according to how genomic data was handled: a non-phylogenetic family, a sequential phylogenetic family, and a simultaneous phylogenetic family. We discussed methods according to the data needed as well as the underlying sequence mutation, within-host evolution, transmission, and case observation. In the non-phylogenetic family consisting of eight methods, pairwise genetic distances were estimated. In the phylogenetic families, transmission trees were inferred from phylogenetic trees either simultaneously (nine methods) or sequentially (five methods). While a majority of methods (17/22) modeled the transmission process, few (8/22) took into account imperfect case detection. Within-host evolution was generally (7/8) modeled as a coalescent process. These practical and theoretical considerations were highlighted in order to help select the appropriate method for an outbreak.

Serological Evidence of Backyard Pig Exposure to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 Virus during 2016-2017 Epizootic in France

In autumn/winter 2016-2017, HPAI-H5N8 viruses belonging to the A/goose/Guandong/1/1996 (Gs/Gd) lineage, clade 2.3.4.4b, were responsible for outbreaks in domestic poultry in Europe, and veterinarians were requested to reinforce surveillance of pigs bred in HPAI-H5Nx confirmed mixed herds. In this context, ten pig herds were visited in southwestern France from December 2016 to May 2017 and serological analyses for influenza A virus (IAV) infections were carried out by ELISA and hemagglutination inhibition assays. In one herd, one backyard pig was shown to have produced antibodies directed against a virus bearing a H5 from clade 2.3.4.4b, suggesting it would have been infected naturally after close contact with HPAI-H5N8 contaminated domestic ducks. Whereas pigs and other mammals, including humans, may have limited sensitivity to HPAI-H5 clade 2.3.4.4b, this information recalls the importance of implementing appropriate biosecurity measures in pig and poultry farms to avoid IAV interspecies transmission, a prerequisite for co-infections and subsequent emergence of new viral genotypes whose impact on both animal and human health cannot be predicted.