Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2-Specific Antibodies, Japan, June 2020

Infection-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence among Blood Donors, Japan, 2022

A nationwide survey of SARS-CoV-2 antinucleocapsid seroprevalence among blood donors in Japan revealed that, as of November 2022, infection-induced seroprevalence of the population was 28.6% (95% CI 27.6%-29.6%). Seroprevalence studies might complement routine surveillance and ongoing monitoring efforts to provide a more complete real-time picture of COVID-19 burden.

Estimating infection fatality risk and ascertainment bias of COVID-19 in Osaka, Japan from February 2020 to January 2022

The present study aimed to estimate the infection fatality risk (IFR) and ascertainment bias of SARS-CoV-2 for six epidemic waves in Japan from February 2020 to January 2022. We used two types of datasets: (i) surveillance-based datasets containing the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths in each epidemic wave and (ii) seroepidemiological datasets conducted in a serial cross-sectional manner. Smoothing spline function was employed to reconstruct the age-specific cumulative incidence of infection. We found that IFR was highest during the first wave, and the second highest during the fourth wave, caused by the Alpha variant. Once vaccination became widespread, IFR decreased considerably among adults aged 40 years plus during the fifth wave caused by the Delta variant, although the epidemic size of fifth wave was the largest before the Omicron variant emerged. We also found that ascertainment bias was relatively high during the first and second waves and, notably, RT-PCR testing capacity during these early periods was limited. Improvements in the ascertainment were seen during the third and fourth waves. Once the Omicron variant began spreading, IFR diminished while ascertainment bias was considerably elevated.

National seroepidemiological study of COVID-19 after the initial rollout of vaccines: Before and at the peak of the Omicron-dominant period in Japan

Background

Based on routine surveillance data, Japan has been affected much less by COVID-19 compared with other countries. To validate this, we aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and examine sociodemographic factors associated with cumulative infection in Japan.

Methods

A population-based serial cross-sectional seroepidemiological investigation was conducted in five prefectures in December 2021 (pre-Omicron) and February-March 2022 (Omicron [BA.1/BA.2]-peak). Anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies were measured to detect infection-induced and vaccine/infection-induced antibodies, respectively. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between various factors and past infection.

Results

Among 16 296 participants (median age: 53 [43-64] years), overall prevalence of infection-induced antibodies was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.9-2.5%) in December 2021 and 3.5% (95% CI: 3.1-3.9%) in February-March 2022. Factors associated with past infection included those residing in urban prefectures (Tokyo: aOR 3.37 [95% CI: 2.31-4.91], Osaka: aOR 3.23 [95% CI: 2.17-4.80]), older age groups (60s: aOR 0.47 [95% CI 0.29-0.74], 70s: aOR 0.41 [95% CI 0.24-0.70]), being vaccinated (twice: aOR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.28-0.61], three times: aOR 0.21 [95% CI: 0.12-0.36]), individuals engaged in occupations such as long-term care workers (aOR: 3.13 [95% CI: 1.47-6.66]), childcare workers (aOR: 3.63 [95% CI: 1.60-8.24]), food service workers (aOR: 3.09 [95% CI: 1.50-6.35]), and history of household contact (aOR: 26.4 [95% CI: 20.0-34.8]) or non-household contact (aOR: 5.21 [95% CI:3.80-7.14]) in February-March 2022. Almost all vaccinated individuals (15 670/15 681) acquired binding antibodies with higher titers among booster dose recipients.

Conclusions

Before Omicron, the cumulative burden was >10 times lower in Japan (2.2%) compared with the US (33%), the UK (25%), or global estimates (45%), but most developed antibodies owing to vaccination.

Differential COVID-19 infection rates in children, adults, and elderly: Systematic review and meta-analysis of 38 pre-vaccination national seroprevalence studies

Background

Debate exists about whether extra protection of elderly and other vulnerable individuals is feasible in COVID-19. We aimed to assess the relative infection rates in the elderly vs the non-elderly and, secondarily, in children vs adults.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of seroprevalence studies conducted in the pre-vaccination era. We identified representative national studies without high risk of bias through SeroTracker and PubMed searches (last updated May 17, 2022). We noted seroprevalence estimates for children, non-elderly adults, and elderly adults, using cut-offs of 20 and 60 years (or as close to these ages, if they were unavailable) and compared them between different age groups.

Results

We included 38 national seroprevalence studies from 36 different countries comprising 826 963 participants. Twenty-six of these studies also included pediatric populations and twenty-five were from high-income countries. The median ratio of seroprevalence in elderly vs non-elderly adults (or non-elderly in general, if pediatric and adult population data were not offered separately) was 0.90-0.95 in different analyses, with large variability across studies. In five studies (all in high-income countries), we observed significant protection of the elderly with a ratio of <0.40, with a median of 0.83 in high-income countries and 1.02 elsewhere. The median ratio of seroprevalence in children vs adults was 0.89 and only one study showed a significant ratio of <0.40. The main limitation of our study is the inaccuracies and biases in seroprevalence studies.

Conclusions

Precision shielding of elderly community-dwelling populations before the availability of vaccines was indicated in some high-income countries, but most countries failed to achieve any substantial focused protection.

Registration

Open Science Framework (available at: https://osf.io/xvupr).

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population

The largest burden of COVID-19 is carried by the elderly, and persons living in nursing homes are particularly vulnerable. However, 94% of the global population is younger than 70 years and 86% is younger than 60 years. The objective of this study was to accurately estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 among non-elderly people in the absence of vaccination or prior infection. In systematic searches in SeroTracker and PubMed (protocol: https://osf.io/xvupr), we identified 40 eligible national seroprevalence studies covering 38 countries with pre-vaccination seroprevalence data. For 29 countries (24 high-income, 5 others), publicly available age-stratified COVID-19 death data and age-stratified seroprevalence information were available and were included in the primary analysis. The IFRs had a median of 0.034% (interquartile range (IQR) 0.013-0.056%) for the 0-59 years old population, and 0.095% (IQR 0.036-0.119%) for the 0-69 years old. The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.002% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.123% at 50-59 years, and 0.506% at 60-69 years. IFR increases approximately 4 times every 10 years. Including data from another 9 countries with imputed age distribution of COVID-19 deaths yielded median IFR of 0.025-0.032% for 0-59 years and 0.063-0.082% for 0-69 years. Meta-regression analyses also suggested global IFR of 0.03% and 0.07%, respectively in these age groups. The current analysis suggests a much lower pre-vaccination IFR in non-elderly populations than previously suggested. Large differences did exist between countries and may reflect differences in comorbidities and other factors. These estimates provide a baseline from which to fathom further IFR declines with the widespread use of vaccination, prior infections, and evolution of new variants.

Guest edited collection serological study of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in japanese cats using protein-A/G-based ELISA

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the epidemic status of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in cats in Japan due to insufficiently reliable seroepidemiological analysis methods that are easy to use in cats.

RESULTS

We developed a protein-A/G-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in cats. The assay was standardized using positive rabbit antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. The ELISA results were consistent with those of a conventional anti-feline-immunoglobulin-G (IgG)-based ELISA. To test the protein-A/G-based ELISA, we collected blood samples from 1,969 cats that had been taken to veterinary clinics in Japan from June to July 2020 and determined the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Nine cats were found to have SARS-CoV-2 S1-specific IgG, of which 4 had recombinant receptor-binding domain-specific IgG. Of those 9 samples, one showed neutralizing activity. Based on these findings, we estimated that the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in cats in Japan was 0.05% (1/1,969 samples). This prevalence was consistent with the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in humans in Japan according to research conducted at that time.

CONCLUSIONS

Protein-A/G-based ELISA has the potential to be a standardized method for measuring anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in cats. The infection status of SARS-CoV-2 in cats in Japan might be linked to that in humans.

Inferring the true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Japan

Introduction

In Japan, as of December 31, 2021, more than 1.73 million laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported. However, the actual number of infections is likely to be under-ascertained due to the epidemiological characteristics such as mild and subclinical infections and limited testing availability in the early days of the pandemic. In this study, we infer the true number of infections in Japan between January 16, 2020, and December 31, 2021, using a statistical modelling framework that combines data on reported cases and fatalities.

Methods

We used reported COVID-19 deaths and age-specific infection fatality ratios (IFR) to impute the true number of infections. Estimates of IFR were informed from published studies and were adjusted to reflect the effects of pharmaceutical interventions, mass vaccination, and evolving variants. To account for the uncertainty in IFR, we sampled values from relevant distributions.

Results

We estimated that as of December 31, 2021, 3.07 million (CrI: 2.05–4.24 million) people had been infected in Japan, which is 1.77 times higher than the 1.73 million reported cases. Our meta-analysis confirmed that these findings were consistent with the intermittent seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan.

Conclusions

We have estimated that a substantial number of COVID-19 infections in Japan were unreported, particularly in adults. Our approach provides a more realistic assessment of the true underlying burden of COVID-19. The results of this study can be used as fundamental components to strengthen population health control and surveillance measures.

Epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan during the first and second waves

Following the emergence and worldwide spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), each country has attempted to control the disease in different ways. The first patient with COVID-19 in Japan was diagnosed on 15 January 2020, and until 31 October 2020, the epidemic was characterized by two large waves. To prevent the first wave, the Japanese government imposed several control measures such as advising the public to avoid the 3Cs (closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded places with many people nearby, and close-contact settings such as close-range conversations) and implementation of "cluster buster" strategies. After a major epidemic occurred in April 2020 (the first wave), Japan asked its citizens to limit their numbers of physical contacts and announced a non-legally binding state of emergency. Following a drop in the number of diagnosed cases, the state of emergency was gradually relaxed and then lifted in all prefectures of Japan by 25 May 2020. However, the development of another major epidemic (the second wave) could not be prevented because of continued chains of transmission, especially in urban locations. The present study aimed to descriptively examine propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan with respect to time, age, space, and interventions implemented during the first and second waves. Using publicly available data, we calculated the effective reproduction number and its associations with the timing of measures imposed to suppress transmission. Finally, we crudely calculated the proportions of severe and fatal COVID-19 cases during the first and second waves. Our analysis identified key characteristics of COVID-19, including density dependence and also the age dependence in the risk of severe outcomes. We also identified that the effective reproduction number during the state of emergency was maintained below the value of 1 during the first wave.

Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two waves in Japan: Demographic characteristics and overdispersion

OBJECTIVES

Super-spreading events caused by overdispersed secondary transmission are crucial in the transmission of COVID-19. However, the exact level of overdispersion, demographics, and other factors associated with secondary transmission remain elusive. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the frequency and patterns of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan.

METHODS

We analyzed 16,471 cases between January 2020 and August 2020. We generated the number of secondary cases distribution and estimated the dispersion parameter (k) by fitting the negative binomial distribution in each phase. The frequencies of the secondary transmission were compared by demographic and clinical characteristics, calculating the odds ratio using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We observed that 76.7% of the primary cases did not generate secondary cases with an estimated dispersion parameter k of 0.23. The demographic patterns of primary-secondary cases differed between phases, with 20-69 years being the predominant age group. There were higher proportions of secondary transmissions among older individuals, symptomatic patients, and patients with 2 days or more between onset and confirmation.

CONCLUSIONS

The study showed the estimation of the frequency of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of people who generated the secondary transmission.

Interpretations of SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibody titers in the seroepidemiological study of asymptomatic healthy volunteers

Introduction

The usefulness of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody tests in asymptomatic individuals has not been well validated, although they have satisfied sensitivity and specificity in symptomatic patients. In this study, we investigated the significance of IgM and IgG antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 in the serum of asymptomatic healthy subjects.

Methods

From June 2020, we recruited 10,039 participants to the project named the University of Tokyo COVID-19 Antibody Titer Survey (UT-CATS), and measured iFlash-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG (YHLO IgM and IgG) titers in the collected serum. For the samples with increased IgM or IgG titers, we performed additional measurements using Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Ig (Roche total Ig) and Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG (Abbott IgG) and investigated the reactivity to N, S1, and receptor binding domain (RBD) proteins.

Results

After setting the cutoff value at 5 AU/mL, 61 (0.61%) were positive for YHLO IgM and 104 (1.04%) for YHLO IgG. Few samples with elevated YHLO IgM showed reactivity to S1 or RBD proteins, and IgG titers did not increase during the follow-up in any samples. The samples with elevated YHLO IgG consisted of two groups: one reacted to S1 or RBD proteins and the other did not, which was reflected in the results of Roche total Ig.

Conclusions

In SARS-CoV-2 seroepidemiological studies of asymptomatic participants, sufficient attention should be given to the interpretation of the results of YHLO IgM and IgG, and the combined use of YHLO IgG and Roche total Ig might be more reliable.

Inferring the COVID-19 infection fatality rate in the community-dwelling population: a simple Bayesian evidence synthesis of seroprevalence study data and imprecise mortality data

Estimating the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) infection fatality rate (IFR) has proven to be particularly challenging –and rather controversial– due to the fact that both the data on deaths and the data on the number of individuals infected are subject to many different biases. We consider a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach which, while simple enough for researchers to understand and use, accounts for many important sources of uncertainty inherent in both the seroprevalence and mortality data. With the understanding that the results of one's evidence synthesis analysis may be largely driven by which studies are included and which are excluded, we conduct two separate parallel analyses based on two lists of eligible studies obtained from two different research teams. The results from both analyses are rather similar. With the first analysis, we estimate the COVID-19 IFR to be 0.31% [95% credible interval (CrI) of (0.16%, 0.53%)] for a typical community-dwelling population where 9% of the population is aged over 65 years and where the gross-domestic-product at purchasing-power-parity (GDP at PPP) per capita is $17.8k (the approximate worldwide average). With the second analysis, we obtain 0.32% [95% CrI of (0.19%, 0.47%)]. Our results suggest that, as one might expect, lower IFRs are associated with younger populations (and may also be associated with wealthier populations). For a typical community-dwelling population with the age and wealth of the United States we obtain IFR estimates of 0.43% and 0.41%; and with the age and wealth of the European Union, we obtain IFR estimates of 0.67% and 0.51%.

Serological Testing Reveals the Hidden COVID-19 Burden among Health Care Workers Experiencing a SARS-CoV-2 Nosocomial Outbreak

We describe the results of testing health care workers, from a tertiary care hospital in Japan that had experienced a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak during the first peak of the pandemic, for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-specific antibody seroconversion. Using two chemiluminescent immunoassays and a confirmatory surrogate virus neutralization test, serological testing revealed that a surprising 42% of overlooked COVID-19 diagnoses (27/64 cases) occurred when case detection relied solely on SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). Our results suggest that the NAAT-positive population is only the tip of the iceberg and the portion left undetected might potentially have led to silent transmissions and triggered the spread. A questionnaire-based risk assessment was further indicative of exposures to specific aerosol-generating procedures (i.e., noninvasive ventilation and airway suctioning) having mediated transmission and served as the origins of the outbreak. Our observations are supportive of a multitiered testing approach, including the use of serological diagnostics, in order to accomplish exhaustive case detection along the whole COVID-19 spectrum. IMPORTANCE We describe the results of testing frontline health care workers, from a hospital in Japan that had experienced a COVID-19 outbreak, for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. Antibody testing revealed that a surprising 42% of overlooked COVID-19 diagnoses occurred when case detection relied solely on PCR-based viral detection. COVID-19 clusters have been continuously striking the health care system around the globe. Our findings illustrate that such clusters are lined with hidden infections eluding detection with diagnostic PCR and that the cluster burden in total is more immense than actually recognized. The mainstays of diagnosing infectious diseases, including COVID-19, generally consist of two approaches, one aiming to detect molecular fragments of the invading pathogen and the other to measure immune responses of the host. Considering antibody testing as one trustworthy option to test our way through the pandemic can aid in the exhaustive case detection of COVID-19 patients with variable presentations.

Side effects and antibody titer transition of the BNT162b2 messenger ribonucleic acid coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine in Japan

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has afflicted large populations worldwide. Although vaccines aroused great expectations, their side effects on Japanese people and the antibody titer transition after vaccination are unclear.

METHODS

The side effects of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in participants who received vaccination at our center were investigated. Some participants were also surveyed for the antibody titer transition.

RESULTS

In this study, 983 and 798 Japanese participants responded to the first and second doses, respectively. Side effects occurred in 757 (77.0%) and 715 participants (90.0%) after the first and second doses, respectively. No Grade 4 side effects occurred. The second dose had significantly more side effects than the first dose (p < 0.001). Side effects occurred after the second dose in 571 female (92.1%) and 178 male participants (80.1%). Female participants had a higher incidence of side effects than the male participants (p < 0.001). A comparison among the age groups showed significant differences (p = 0.018), and the frequency of side effects decreased with age. Twenty-three individuals participated in the survey of antibody titer transition. After the second vaccine dose, the median antibody titers for IgG and IgM were 3.76 and 0.07 AU/mL, respectively. Both IgG and IgM titers showed a significant increase over the study period (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine might be safe for Japanese people, and the antibody titer increased with two doses of vaccination. Larger nationwide studies are warranted to verify these findings.

Mass SARS-CoV-2 serological screening, a population-based study in the Principality of Andorra

BACKGROUND

Andorra is a small country located in the Pyrenees attracting millions of visitors for tourism, mostly associated with skiing, and nature-related activities. As its neighbouring countries, Spain and France, it has been heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the entire country by universal serological testing under a lockdown environment.

METHODS

A total of 77,543 inhabitants of Andorra were invited to participate in the study. From 4-28 May, 2020, two cross sectional serological surveys were conducted using a rapid serological test (nCOV IgG/IgM) on a finger prick blood sample in 59 drive-through or walk-through checkpoints, all over Andorra. We calculated seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and analysed the main sociodemographic factors associated with being seropositive.

FINDINGS

70,494 inhabitants (90.9% of the population) participated in at least one survey. Overall seroprevalence was 11.0%. The most affected age groups were those over 90 years old (15.2%) and 80-89 (13.8%), followed by adults 50-59 (13.6%) and adolescents 10-19 (13.7%). Most seropositive participants, 6,061 (95.1%), were asymptomatic before the surveys. The multivariable analysis showed that the odds of being seropositive was higher among seasonal workers (OR 2.41; 95% CI 1.07-5.45) or in the population living in La Massana region, a popular ski-related area (OR 2.66; 95% CI 2.44-2.89). A higher seroprevalence was observed in those familiar nuclei with greater numbers of cohabitants: 18% in families with 6 household members or more; 13% in medium size families (3/4/5 people) and 12% in small size (1 to 2 people) nuclei.

INTERPRETATION

The prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Andorra was high during the first wave of the pandemic. Seasonal workers and inhabitants based in La Massana presented a higher seroprevalence. Mass antibody screening allows to identify infection hotspots and should contribute to the design of tailored interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Andorra.

FUNDING

Andorran Ministry of Health, Andorran Health Services.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in healthcare workers at a frontline hospital in Tokyo

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are highly exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. The actual coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation, especially in regions that are less affected, has not yet been determined. This study aimed to assess the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in HCWs working in a frontline hospital in Tokyo, Japan. In this cross-sectional observational study, screening was performed on consented HCWs, including medical, nursing, and other workers, as part of a mandatory health checkup. The screening test results and clinical characteristics of the participants were recorded. The antibody seroprevalence rate among the 4147 participants screened between July 6 and August 21, 2020, was 0.34% (14/4147). There was no significant difference in the seroprevalence rate between frontline HCWs with a high exposure risk and HCWs working in other settings with a low exposure risk. Of those seropositive for SARS-CoV-2, 64% (9/14) were not aware of any symptoms and had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. In conclusion, this study provides insights into the extent of infection and immune status in HCWs in Japan, which has a relatively low prevalence of COVID-19. Our findings aid in formulating public health policies to control virus spread in regions with low-intensity COVID-19.

Back to normal; serological testing for COVID-19 diagnosis unveils missed infections

Background

The gold standard for coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) diagnosis has been the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) RNA by nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). On the other hand, serological testing for COVID‐19 may offer advantages in detecting possibly overlooked infections by NAAT.

Methods

To evaluate seroconversion of NAAT‐negative pneumonia patients, immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG targeting the spike protein of SARS‐CoV‐2 were semiquantified by an immunofluorescence assay. Seroconversion was confirmed by another serological method, targeting the nucleocapsid protein.

Results

Eight suspected but unconfirmed COVID‐19 pneumonia patients (median age, 39 years; range, 21–55) were included. The median period between symptom onset and NAAT sample collection was 6 days (2–27 days). None of them had tested positive for SARS‐CoV‐2 by NAAT. In contrast, all eight patients revealed seropositivity with the two serological methods, indicating actual seroconversion against SARS‐CoV‐2. The median period between onset and blood sampling was 26.5 days (7–51 days).

Conclusion

Eight patients with COVID‐19 pneumonia, initially tested negative for SARS‐CoV‐2 by NAAT, were finally confirmed of the diagnosis by serological testing. To cover the whole spectrum of this heterogenous infectious disease, serology testing should be implemented to the multitiered diagnostic algorithm for COVID‐19.