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Williams GJ, Hellerstedt ST, Scudder PN, Calderwood AH. Yield of Surveillance Colonoscopy in Older Adults with a History of Polyps: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Dig Dis Sci 2022; 67:4059-4069. [PMID: 34406584 PMCID: PMC10753972 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-021-07198-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2021] [Accepted: 07/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/09/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The benefit of surveillance colonoscopy in older adults is not well described. AIMS To quantify the detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) and advanced polyps during surveillance colonoscopy in older adults with a history of colon polyps. METHODS We conducted a systematic review (MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Embase) for all published studies through May 2020 in adults age > 70 undergoing surveillance colonoscopy. The main outcome was CRC and advanced polyps detection. We performed meta-analysis to pool results by age (>70 vs. 50-70). RESULTS The search identified 6239 studies, of which 569 underwent full-text review and 64 data abstraction, of which 19 were included. The risk of detecting CRC (N = 11) was higher in those >70 compared to 50-70 (risk ratio 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-2.2); risk difference 0.8% (95% CI -0.2%-1.8%)). Similarly, the risk of detecting advanced polyps (N = 8) was higher in those >70 compared to 50-70 (risk ratio 1.3 (95% CI 1.2-1.3), risk difference 2.7% (95% CI 1.3%-4.0%)). Most studies did not stratify results by baseline polyp risk. CONCLUSIONS The detection of CRC and advanced polyps during surveillance colonoscopy in older individuals was higher than in younger controls; however, the absolute risk increase for both was small. These differences must be weighed against competing medical problems and limited life expectancy in older adults when making decisions about surveillance colonoscopy. More primary data on the risks of CRC and advanced polyps accounting for number of past colonoscopies, prior polyp risk, and duration of time since last polyp are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory J Williams
- The Dartmouth Institute of Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Lebanon, NH, USA
| | - Sage T Hellerstedt
- The Dartmouth Institute of Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Lebanon, NH, USA
| | - Paige N Scudder
- Dartmouth Biomedical Libraries, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - Audrey H Calderwood
- The Dartmouth Institute of Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Lebanon, NH, USA.
- Geisel School of Medicine At Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA.
- Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center, One Medical Center Drive, Lebanon, NH, 03756, USA.
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Harewood R, Wooldrage K, Robbins EC, Kinross J, von Wagner C, Cross AJ. Adenoma characteristics associated with post-polypectomy proximal colon cancer incidence: a retrospective cohort study. Br J Cancer 2022; 126:1744-1754. [PMID: 35149853 PMCID: PMC9174477 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-022-01719-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Revised: 01/03/2022] [Accepted: 01/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is less effective at reducing cancer incidence in the proximal colon compared to the distal colorectum. We aimed to identify adenoma characteristics associated with proximal colon cancer (PCC). METHODS Endoscopy and pathology data for patients with ≥1 adenoma detected at baseline colonoscopy were obtained from 17 UK hospitals between 2001 and 2010. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PCC, and, for comparison, distal CRC incidence, by adenoma characteristics. RESULTS Among 18,431 patients, 152 and 105 developed PCC and distal CRC, respectively, over a median follow-up of 9.8 years. Baseline adenoma characteristics positively associated with PCC incidence included number (≥3 vs. < 3: aHR 2.10, 95% CI: 1.42-3.09), histology (tubulovillous/villous vs. tubular: aHR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.35) and location (any proximal vs. distal only: aHR 1.70, 95% CI: 1.20-2.42), for which there was borderline evidence of heterogeneity by subsite (p = 0.055). Adenoma dysplasia (high vs. low grade) was associated with distal CRC (aHR 2.42, 95% CI: 1.44-4.04), but not PCC (p-heterogeneity = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS Baseline adenoma number, histology and proximal location were independently associated with PCC and may be important to identify patients at higher risk for post-polypectomy PCC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rhea Harewood
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group (CSPRG), Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Kate Wooldrage
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group (CSPRG), Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Emma C Robbins
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group (CSPRG), Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - James Kinross
- Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Christian von Wagner
- Research Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Amanda J Cross
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group (CSPRG), Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Bailey JA, Khawaja A, Andrews H, Weller J, Chapman C, Morling JR, Oliver S, Castle S, Simpson JA, Humes DJ, Banerjea A. GP access to FIT increases the proportion of colorectal cancers detected on urgent pathways in symptomatic patients in Nottingham. Surgeon 2021; 19:93-102. [PMID: 32327303 DOI: 10.1016/j.surge.2020.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2019] [Accepted: 03/13/2020] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Service evaluation of GP access to Faecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) detection in Nottinghamshire and use of FIT for "rule out", "rule in" and "first test selection". DESIGN Retrospective audit of FIT results, CRC outcomes and resource utilisation before and after introduction of FIT in Primary Care in November 2017. Data from the new pathway up to December 2018 was compared with previous experience. RESULTS Between November 2017 and December 2018, 6747 GP FIT test requests yielded 5733 FIT results, of which 4082 (71.2%) were <4.0 μg Hb/g faeces, 579 (10.1%) were 4.0-9.9 μg Hb/g faeces, 836 (14.6%) were 10.0-149.9 μg Hb/g faeces, and 236 (4.1%) were ≥150.0 μg Hb/g faeces. The proportion of "rule out" results <4.0 μg Hb/g faeces was significantly higher than in the Getting FIT cohort (71.2% vs 60.4%, Chi squared 42.8, p < 0.0001) and the proportion of "rule in" results ≥150.0 μg Hb/g faeces was significantly lower (4.1% vs 8.1%, Chi squared 27.3,P < 0.0001). There was a 33% rise in urgent referrals across Nottingham overall during the evaluation period. 2 CRC diagnoses were made in 4082 patients who had FIT<4.0 μg Hb/g faeces. 58.4% of new CRC diagnoses associated with a positive FIT were early stage cancers (Stage I and II). The proportion of all CRC diagnoses that follow an urgent referral s rose after introduction of FIT. CONCLUSIONS FIT allows GP's to select a more appropriate cohort for urgent investigation without a large number of missed diagnoses. FIT appears to promise a "stage migration" effect which may ultimately improve CRC outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- J A Bailey
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK.
| | - A Khawaja
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK
| | - H Andrews
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK
| | - J Weller
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK
| | - C Chapman
- Eastern Hub, Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, A Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK
| | - J R Morling
- NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK; Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Clinical Sciences Building 2, City Hospital, Nottingham, NG5 1PB, UK
| | - S Oliver
- Nottingham City Clinical Commissioning Group, Nottingham, UK
| | - S Castle
- Nottingham City Clinical Commissioning Group, Nottingham, UK
| | - J A Simpson
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK
| | - D J Humes
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK; NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK; Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Clinical Sciences Building 2, City Hospital, Nottingham, NG5 1PB, UK
| | - A Banerjea
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, QMC Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK
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Bailey JA, Weller J, Chapman CJ, Ford A, Hardy K, Oliver S, Morling JR, Simpson JA, Humes DJ, Banerjea A. Faecal immunochemical testing and blood tests for prioritization of urgent colorectal cancer referrals in symptomatic patients: a 2-year evaluation. BJS Open 2021; 5:6162967. [PMID: 33693553 PMCID: PMC7947575 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraa056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 11/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A novel pathway incorporating faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) for rapid colorectal cancer diagnosis (RCCD) was introduced in 2017. This paper reports on the service evaluation after 2 years of pathway implementation. METHODS The RCCD protocol was based on FIT, blood results and symptoms to stratify adult patients in primary care. Two-week-wait (2WW) investigation was indicated for patients with rectal bleeding, rectal mass and faecal haemoglobin (fHb) level of 10 µg Hb/g faeces or above or 4 µg Hb/g faeces or more in the presence of anaemia, low ferritin or thrombocytosis, in all other symptom groups. Patients with 100 µg Hb/g faeces or above had expedited investigation . A retrospective audit of colorectal cancer detected between 2017 and 2019 was conducted, fHb thresholds were reviewed and critically assessed for cancer diagnoses. RESULTS In 2 years, 14788 FIT tests were dispatched with 13361 (90.4 per cent) completed returns. Overall, fHb was less than 4 µg Hb/g faeces in 9208 results (68.9 per cent), 4-9.9 µg Hb/g in 1583 (11.8 per cent), 10-99.9 µg Hb/g in 1850 (13.8 per cent) and 100 µg Hb/g faeces or above in 720 (5.4 per cent). During follow-up (median 10.4 months), 227 colorectal cancers were diagnosed. The cancer detection rate was 0.1 per cent in patients with fHb below 4 µg Hb/g faeces, 0.6 per cent in those with fHb 4-9.9 µg Hb/g faeces, 3.3 per cent for fHb 10-99.9 µg Hb/g faeces and 20.7 per cent for fHb 100 µg Hb/g faeces or above. The detection rate in the cohort with 10-19.9 µg Hb/g faeces was 1.4 per cent, below the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold for urgent referral. The colorectal cancer rate in patients with fHb below 20 µg Hb/g faeces was less than 0.3 per cent. CONCLUSION Use of FIT to "rule out" urgent referral from primary care misses a small number of cases. The threshold for referral may be adjusted with blood results to improve stratification .
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Affiliation(s)
- J A Bailey
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK
| | - J Weller
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK
| | - C J Chapman
- Eastern Hub, Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK
| | - A Ford
- Eastern Hub, Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK
| | - K Hardy
- Eastern Hub, Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK
| | - S Oliver
- Nottingham City Clinical Commissioning Group, Nottingham,UK
| | - J R Morling
- National Institute for Health Research Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK,Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - J A Simpson
- Eastern Hub, Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK
| | - D J Humes
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK,National Institute for Health Research Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK,Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK,Correspondence to: Nottingham Colorectal Service, E Floor West Block, Queen’s Medical Centre Campus, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Derby Road, Nottingham NG7 2UH, UK (e-mail: )
| | - A Banerjea
- Nottingham Colorectal Service, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK
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5
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Nicholson BD, James T, East JE, Grimshaw D, Paddon M, Justice S, Oke JL, Shine B. Experience of adopting faecal immunochemical testing to meet the NICE colorectal cancer referral criteria for low-risk symptomatic primary care patients in Oxfordshire, UK. Frontline Gastroenterol 2019; 10:347-355. [PMID: 31656559 PMCID: PMC6788275 DOI: 10.1136/flgastro-2018-101052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2018] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/07/2018] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To compare the diagnostic performance of guaiac faecal occult blood (gFOB) testing with faecal immunochemical test (FIT) in a low-risk symptomatic primary care population to provide objective data on which to base local referral guidelines. DESIGN Stool samples from routine primary care practice sent for faecal occult blood testing were analysed by a standard gFOB method and the HM-JACKarc FIT between January and March 2016. Symptoms described on the test request were recorded. Patients were followed up over 21 months for evidence of serious gastrointestinal pathology including colorectal adenocarcinoma. RESULTS In 238 patients, the sensitivity and specificity for colorectal adenocarcinoma detection using gFOB were 85.7% and 65.8%, respectively, compared with 85.7% and 89.2% for FIT. The positive predictive value (PPV) for gFOB was 7.1% and negative predictive value (NPV) was 99.3%. Comparatively, the PPV for FIT was 19.4% and NPV 99.5%. The improved performance of FIT over gFOB was due to a lower false positive rate (10.8 vs 34.2, p≤0.01) with no increase in the false negatives rate. For any significant colorectal disease, the PPV for FIT increased to 35.5% with a reduction in NPV to 95.7%. CONCLUSION In this low-risk symptomatic patient group, the proportion of samples considered positive by FIT was considerably lower than gFOB with the same rate of colorectal adenocarcinoma detection. One in three of those with positive FIT had a significant colorectal disease. This supports National Institute of Health and Care Excellence recommendation that FIT can be reliably used as a triage test in primary care without overburdening endoscopy resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian D Nicholson
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tim James
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals Trust, Oxford, UK
| | - James E East
- Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David Grimshaw
- Planned Care, Oxfordshire Clinical Commissioning Group, Oxford, UK
| | - Maria Paddon
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals Trust, Oxford, UK
| | - Steve Justice
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals Trust, Oxford, UK
| | - Jason L Oke
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Brian Shine
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals Trust, Oxford, UK
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Patel K, Athisayaraj T, Mishra A. Need For Whole Large Bowel Investigation in Sole Change in Bowel Habit: An Analysis of 719 Patients. J INVEST SURG 2019; 34:1-6. [PMID: 30898041 DOI: 10.1080/08941939.2019.1589606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
Purpose/Aim of the study: Patients referred for suspected colorectal cancer typically undergo whole large bowel investigation (WLBI) as per national guidelines. Sole change in bowel habit (CIBH) with no anemia/abdominal mass at time of referral has low oncological yield following diagnostic investigations, particularly for tumors proximal to the splenic flexure. Study aims were to evaluate cancer yield of patients referred for suspected colorectal cancer presenting with sole-symptom CIBH and to assess clinical and financial feasibility of a straight-to-test flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). Materials and methods: We analyzed all 2-week wait referrals with sole CIBH between January 2013 and 2015. Information collected included cancer yield and oncological management. Results: Overall 1831 patient referrals were made during our study time. 719 (39.3%; median age 72 years, interquartile range: 65-79.5) were identified with sole CIBH at referral and underwent subsequent WLBI. 597 (83%) patients reported predominant looser/increased frequency stool (PLS) whilst the remaining 122 (17%) had predominant hard/decreased frequency stool (PHS). Overall, 18 were diagnosed with colorectal cancer (2.5%) with a further 9 patients (1.3%) harboring non-colorectal malignancies. The PHS group yielded a significantly higher proportion of colorectal cancers than the PLS group (adjusted OR 3.24, 95% CI: 1.23-8.54; p = .02). Colonic tumors proximal to the splenic flexure are uncommon in patients with sole CIBH (0.69%). In those with PLS, one proximal malignancy (0.17%) was detected with WLBI. Conclusions: Sole CIBH without anemia/abdominal mass yields a 2.5% colorectal malignancy rate from 2-week wait referrals. Those with PLS had a 0.17% yield of proximal tumors. A straight-to-test FS in this low risk group would be clinically effective with potential annual savings of more than £50 000.
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Affiliation(s)
- Krashna Patel
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, West Suffolk Hospital, Suffolk, UK
| | | | - Amitabh Mishra
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, West Suffolk Hospital, Suffolk, UK
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7
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Cross AJ, Wooldrage K, Robbins EC, Pack K, Brown JP, Hamilton W, Thompson MR, Flashman KG, Halligan S, Thomas-Gibson S, Vance M, Saunders BP, Atkin W. Whole-colon investigation vs. flexible sigmoidoscopy for suspected colorectal cancer based on presenting symptoms and signs: a multicentre cohort study. Br J Cancer 2019; 120:154-164. [PMID: 30563992 PMCID: PMC6342953 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-018-0335-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2018] [Revised: 10/17/2018] [Accepted: 10/24/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients with suspected colorectal cancer (CRC) usually undergo colonoscopy. Flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) may be preferred if proximal cancer risk is low. We investigated which patients could undergo FS alone. METHODS Cohort study of 7375 patients (≥55 years) referred with suspected CRC to 21 English hospitals (2004-2007), followed using hospital records and cancer registries. We calculated yields and number of needed whole-colon examinations (NNE) to diagnose one cancer by symptoms/signs and subsite. We considered narrow (haemoglobin <11 g/dL men; <10 g/dL women) and broad (<13 g/dL men; <12 g/dL women) anaemia definitions and iron-deficiency anaemia (IDA). RESULTS One hundred and twenty-seven proximal and 429 distal CRCs were diagnosed. A broad anaemia definition identified 80% of proximal cancers; a narrow definition with IDA identified 39%. In patients with broad definition anaemia and/or abdominal mass, proximal cancer yield and NNE were 4.8% (97/2022) and 21. In patients without broad definition anaemia and/or abdominal mass, with rectal bleeding or increased stool frequency (41% of cohort), proximal cancer yield and NNE were 0.4% (13/3031) and 234. CONCLUSION Most proximal cancers are accompanied by broad definition anaemia. In patients without broad definition anaemia and/or abdominal mass, with rectal bleeding or increased stool frequency, proximal cancer is rare and FS should suffice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda J Cross
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group, Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Kate Wooldrage
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group, Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Emma C Robbins
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group, Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kevin Pack
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group, Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jeremy P Brown
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group, Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - William Hamilton
- Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
| | - Michael R Thompson
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | - Karen G Flashman
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | - Steve Halligan
- University College London Centre for Medical Imaging, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Margaret Vance
- Wolfson Unit for Endoscopy, St Mark's Hospital, London, UK
| | | | - Wendy Atkin
- Cancer Screening and Prevention Research Group, Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Thompson MR, O'Leary DP, Flashman K, Asiimwe A, Ellis BG, Senapati A. Clinical assessment to determine the risk of bowel cancer using Symptoms, Age, Mass and Iron deficiency anaemia (SAMI). Br J Surg 2017. [PMID: 28634990 DOI: 10.1002/bjs.10573] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to identify characteristics with independent predictive value for bowel cancer for use in the clinical assessment of patients attending colorectal outpatient clinics. METHODS This was a 22-year (1986-2007) retrospective cohort analysis of data collected prospectively from patients who attended colorectal surgical outpatient clinics in Portsmouth. The data set was split randomly into two groups of patients to generate and validate a predictive model. Multivariable logistic regression was used to create and validate a system to predict outcome. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the model's predictive capability. The likelihood of bowel cancer was expressed as the odds ratio (OR). RESULTS Data from 29 005 patients were analysed. Discrimination of the model for bowel cancer was high in the development (C-statistic 0·87, 95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·88) and validation (C-statistic 0·86, 0·84 to 0·87) groups. The most important co-variables in the final model were: age (OR 3·17-27·10), rectal (OR 31·48) or abdominal (OR 1·83-8·45) mass, iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) (OR 4·42-8·38), rectal bleeding and change in bowel habit in combination (OR 5·37), change in bowel habit without rectal bleeding, with or without abdominal pain (OR 2·12-2·52), and rectal bleeding with no perianal symptoms and without change in bowel habit (OR 2·91). Some 91·5 per cent of bowel cancers presented with these characteristics, 40·4 per cent with a mass and/or IDA. In patients with at least one of these characteristics the overall risk of having cancer was 10·0 (range 6·5-50·4) per cent, compared with 1·1 (0·3-2·3) per cent in patients without them. CONCLUSION A clinical assessment that systematically identifies or excludes four symptom-age combinations, a mass and IDA (SAMI) stratifies patients as having a low and higher risk of having bowel cancer. This could improve patient selection for referral and investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- M R Thompson
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | - D P O'Leary
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | - K Flashman
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | | | - B G Ellis
- Swan Surgery General Practice, Petersfield, UK
| | - A Senapati
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
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