The effect of lowering the threshold for diagnosis of impaired fasting glucose

A dynamic probabilistic model of the onset and interaction of cardio-metabolic comorbidities on an ageing adult population

Comorbidity is widespread in the ageing population, implying multiple and complex medical needs for individuals and a public health burden. Determining risk factors and predicting comorbidity development can help identify at-risk subjects and design prevention strategies. Using socio-demographic and clinical data from approximately 11,000 subjects monitored over 11 years in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we develop a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to model the onset and interaction of three cardio-metabolic comorbidities, namely type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension, and heart problems. The DBN allows us to identify risk factors for developing each morbidity, simulate ageing progression over time, and stratify the population based on the risk of outcome occurrence. By applying hierarchical agglomerative clustering to the simulated, dynamic risk of experiencing morbidities, we identified patients with similar risk patterns and the variables contributing to their discrimination. The network reveals a direct joint effect of biomarkers and lifestyle on outcomes over time, such as the impact of fasting glucose, HbA1c, and BMI on T2D development. Mediated cross-relationships between comorbidities also emerge, showcasing the interconnected nature of these health issues. The model presents good calibration and discrimination ability, particularly in predicting the onset of T2D (iAUC-ROC = 0.828, iAUC-PR = 0.294) and survival (iAUC-ROC = 0.827, iAUC-PR = 0.311). Stratification analysis unveils two distinct clusters for all comorbidities, effectively discriminated by variables like HbA1c for T2D and age at baseline for heart problems. The developed DBN constitutes an effective, highly-explainable predictive risk tool for simulating and stratifying the dynamic risk of developing cardio-metabolic comorbidities. Its use could help identify the effects of risk factors and develop health policies that prevent the occurrence of comorbidities.

Changes in Prediabetes Status Among Adults During a 6-Month Randomized Placebo-controlled Supplement Trial With Nutrition and Lifestyle Counselling and 6-Month Follow-up

OBJECTIVES

In this work, we present an exploratory within-trial analysis of the changing prevalence of prediabetes in response to nutrition and lifestyle counselling provided as part of a randomized placebo-controlled supplement trial with follow-up. We aimed to identify factors associated with changing glycemia status.

METHODS

Participants (n=401) in this clinical trial were adults with a body mass index (BMI) of ≥25 kg/m2 and prediabetes (defined by the American Diabetes Association as a fasting plasma glucose [FPG] of 5.6 to 6.9 mmol/L or a glycated hemoglobin [A1C] of 5.7% to 6.4%) within 6 months before trial entry. The trial consisted of a 6-month randomized intervention with 2 dietary supplements and/or placebo. At the same time, all participants received nutrition and lifestyle counselling. This was followed by a 6-month follow-up. Glycemia status was assessed at baseline and at 6 and 12 months.

RESULTS

At baseline, 226 participants (56%) met a threshold for prediabetes, including 167 (42%) with elevated FPG and 155 (39%) with elevated A1C. After the 6-month intervention, the prevalence of prediabetes decreased to 46%, driven by a reduction in prevalence of elevated FPG to 29%. The prevalence of prediabetes then increased to 51% after follow-up. Risk of prediabetes was associated with older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; p<0.01), BMI (OR, 1.06; p<0.05), and male sex (OR, 1.81; p=0.01). Participants who reverted to normoglycemia had greater weight loss and lower baseline glycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Glycemia status can fluctuate over time and improvements can be gained from lifestyle interventions, with certain factors associated with a higher likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia.

The Shoulder Self-Administered Motion Evaluation Has Excellent Patient Reliability and Reproducibility on Both Physician and Repeat Follow-up Testing

Long-term clinical evaluation is becoming more important, yet difficulties exist because there are substantial patient costs for extended follow-up. The goal of this study was to validate whether a new shoulder motion evaluation is reproducible and reliable with physician examination. Consecutive patients were administered a shoulder motion assessment during their clinic visit. Patients completed the same evaluation 2 weeks after their visit to determine test-retest reliability. Exact and approximate (within 20° or 4 spinal levels) agreements between patient and physician measurements were calculated. A total of 112 patients (224 shoulders) with an average age of 56.7 years were evaluated. The most common diagnoses were osteoarthritis (33.0%) and rotator cuff tear (32.1%). All motion questions had greater than 50% exact patient-physician agreement and greater than 70% approximate agreement. When agreement was off, patients more often underestimated their motion. There was substantial clinician-patient agreement for all questions and almost perfect agreement for forward elevation (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.78) and internal rotation (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.77). On test-retest reliability testing, patient-patient agreement was substantial for external rotation at the side (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.71). There was near perfect agreement for internal rotation (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and abduction (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.81) testing. This shoulder assessment tool had both good agreement to physician examination and substantial agreement on correlation testing. There was substantial agreement between follow-up visits, suggesting excellent reproducibility. This motion assessment shows effectiveness with most shoulder pathologies. It is recommended as a good screening tool for both clinical and research purposes requiring long-term follow-up in which in-person clinical examinations may be costly and time consuming. [Orthopedics. 2018; 41(6):e820-e826.].

Development of type 2 diabetes mellitus in people with intermediate hyperglycaemia

BACKGROUND

Intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH) is characterised by one or more measurements of elevated blood glucose concentrations, such as impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and elevated glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). These levels are higher than normal but below the diagnostic threshold for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The reduced threshold of 5.6 mmol/L (100 mg/dL) fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for defining IFG, introduced by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) in 2003, substantially increased the prevalence of IFG. Likewise, the lowering of the HbA1c threshold from 6.0% to 5.7% by the ADA in 2010 could potentially have significant medical, public health and socioeconomic impacts.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the overall prognosis of people with IH for developing T2DM, regression from IH to normoglycaemia and the difference in T2DM incidence in people with IH versus people with normoglycaemia.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, ClincialTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) Search Portal up to December 2016 and updated the MEDLINE search in February 2018. We used several complementary search methods in addition to a Boolean search based on analytical text mining.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included prospective cohort studies investigating the development of T2DM in people with IH. We used standard definitions of IH as described by the ADA or World Health Organization (WHO). We excluded intervention trials and studies on cohorts with additional comorbidities at baseline, studies with missing data on the transition from IH to T2DM, and studies where T2DM incidence was evaluated by documents or self-report only.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

One review author extracted study characteristics, and a second author checked the extracted data. We used a tailored version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool for assessing risk of bias. We pooled incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRR) using a random-effects model to account for between-study heterogeneity. To meta-analyse incidence data, we used a method for pooling proportions. For hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) of IH versus normoglycaemia, reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI), we obtained standard errors from these CIs and performed random-effects meta-analyses using the generic inverse-variance method. We used multivariable HRs and the model with the greatest number of covariates. We evaluated the certainty of the evidence with an adapted version of the GRADE framework.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 103 prospective cohort studies. The studies mainly defined IH by IFG5.6 (FPG mmol/L 5.6 to 6.9 mmol/L or 100 mg/dL to 125 mg/dL), IFG6.1 (FPG 6.1 mmol/L to 6.9 mmol/L or 110 mg/dL to 125 mg/dL), IGT (plasma glucose 7.8 mmol/L to 11.1 mmol/L or 140 mg/dL to 199 mg/dL two hours after a 75 g glucose load on the oral glucose tolerance test, combined IFG and IGT (IFG/IGT), and elevated HbA1c (HbA1c5.7: HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4% or 39 mmol/mol to 46 mmol/mol; HbA1c6.0: HbA1c 6.0% to 6.4% or 42 mmol/mol to 46 mmol/mol). The follow-up period ranged from 1 to 24 years. Ninety-three studies evaluated the overall prognosis of people with IH measured by cumulative T2DM incidence, and 52 studies evaluated glycaemic status as a prognostic factor for T2DM by comparing a cohort with IH to a cohort with normoglycaemia. Participants were of Australian, European or North American origin in 41 studies; Latin American in 7; Asian or Middle Eastern in 50; and Islanders or American Indians in 5. Six studies included children and/or adolescents.Cumulative incidence of T2DM associated with IFG5.6, IFG6.1, IGT and the combination of IFG/IGT increased with length of follow-up. Cumulative incidence was highest with IFG/IGT, followed by IGT, IFG6.1 and IFG5.6. Limited data showed a higher T2DM incidence associated with HbA1c6.0 compared to HbA1c5.7. We rated the evidence for overall prognosis as of moderate certainty because of imprecision (wide CIs in most studies). In the 47 studies reporting restitution of normoglycaemia, regression ranged from 33% to 59% within one to five years follow-up, and from 17% to 42% for 6 to 11 years of follow-up (moderate-certainty evidence).Studies evaluating the prognostic effect of IH versus normoglycaemia reported different effect measures (HRs, IRRs and ORs). Overall, the effect measures all indicated an elevated risk of T2DM at 1 to 24 years of follow-up. Taking into account the long-term follow-up of cohort studies, estimation of HRs for time-dependent events like T2DM incidence appeared most reliable. The pooled HR and the number of studies and participants for different IH definitions as compared to normoglycaemia were: IFG5.6: HR 4.32 (95% CI 2.61 to 7.12), 8 studies, 9017 participants; IFG6.1: HR 5.47 (95% CI 3.50 to 8.54), 9 studies, 2818 participants; IGT: HR 3.61 (95% CI 2.31 to 5.64), 5 studies, 4010 participants; IFG and IGT: HR 6.90 (95% CI 4.15 to 11.45), 5 studies, 1038 participants; HbA1c5.7: HR 5.55 (95% CI 2.77 to 11.12), 4 studies, 5223 participants; HbA1c6.0: HR 10.10 (95% CI 3.59 to 28.43), 6 studies, 4532 participants. In subgroup analyses, there was no clear pattern of differences between geographic regions. We downgraded the evidence for the prognostic effect of IH versus normoglycaemia to low-certainty evidence due to study limitations because many studies did not adequately adjust for confounders. Imprecision and inconsistency required further downgrading due to wide 95% CIs and wide 95% prediction intervals (sometimes ranging from negative to positive prognostic factor to outcome associations), respectively.This evidence is up to date as of 26 February 2018.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Overall prognosis of people with IH worsened over time. T2DM cumulative incidence generally increased over the course of follow-up but varied with IH definition. Regression from IH to normoglycaemia decreased over time but was observed even after 11 years of follow-up. The risk of developing T2DM when comparing IH with normoglycaemia at baseline varied by IH definition. Taking into consideration the uncertainty of the available evidence, as well as the fluctuating stages of normoglycaemia, IH and T2DM, which may transition from one stage to another in both directions even after years of follow-up, practitioners should be careful about the potential implications of any active intervention for people 'diagnosed' with IH.

Prevalence of Pre-Diabetes across Ethnicities: A Review of Impaired Fasting Glucose (IFG) and Impaired Glucose Tolerance (IGT) for Classification of Dysglycaemia

Prediabetes can be defined by the presence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or glycated haemoglobin (Hb_A1c) to identify individuals at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). The World Health Organization (WHO, 1999) and the American Diabetes Association (ADA, 2003) utilise different cut-off values for IFG (WHO: 6.1–6.9 mmol/L; ADA: 5.6–6.9 mmol/L) but the same cut-off values for IGT (7.8–11.0 mmol/L). This review investigates whether there are differences in prevalence of IFG, IGT, and combined IFG&IGT between ethnicities, in particular Asian Chinese and European Caucasians. In total, we identified 19 studies using the WHO₁₉₉₉ classification, for which the average proportional prevalence for isolated (i)-IFG, i-IGT, and combined IFG&IGT were 43.9%, 41.0%, and 13.5%, respectively, for Caucasian and 29.2%, 49.4%, and 18.2%, respectively, for Asian. For the 14 studies using ADA₂₀₀₃ classification, the average proportional i-IFG, i-IGT, and combined IFG&IGT prevalences were 58.0%, 20.3%, and 19.8%, respectively, for Caucasian; 48.1%, 27.7%, and 20.5%, respectively, for Asian. Whilst not statistically different, there may be clinically relevant differences in the two populations, with our observations for both classifications indicating that prevalence of i-IFG is higher in Caucasian cohorts whilst i-IGT and combined IFG&IGT are both higher in Asian cohorts.

Cut-off values of fasting and post-load plasma glucose and HbA1c for predicting Type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling Japanese subjects: the Hisayama Study

AIMS

We examined the optimal cut-off values of fasting plasma glucose, 2-h post-load glucose and HbA(1c) for predicting Type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling Japanese subjects.

METHODS

A total of 1982 subjects without diabetes aged 40-79 years who underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were followed prospectively for 14 years by annual health examination.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 295 subjects developed Type 2 diabetes. Compared with the first decile, the crude hazard ratio for incident Type 2 diabetes was significantly higher in the fifth fasting plasma glucose decile [5.4-5.4 mmol/l (97-98 mg/dl)] or higher, in the seventh 2-h post-load glucose decile [6.9-7.2 mmol/l (124-131 mg/dl)] or higher, and in the fifth HbA(1c) decile [34-36 mmol/mol (5.3-5.4%)] or higher. These associations remained substantially unchanged even after adjustment for confounding factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off values for predicting Type 2 diabetes were 5.6 mmol/l (101 mg/dl) for fasting plasma glucose, 6.9 mmol/l (124 mg/dl) for 2-h post-load glucose and 37 mmol/mol (5.5%) for HbA(1c). In a stratified analysis, the cut-off values were approximately 5.6 mmol/l (101 mg/dl) for fasting plasma glucose and 37 mmol/mol (5.5%) for HbA(1c), and these values were unchanged over BMI quartile levels, whereas the 2-h post-load glucose cut-off values declined with decreasing BMI levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the cut-off value for predicting Type 2 diabetes in the Japanese population is 5.6 mmol/l (101 mg/dl) for fasting plasma glucose and 37 mmol/mol (5.5%) for HbA(1c), while the 2-h post-load glucose cut-off value is lower than the diagnostic criterion for impaired glucose tolerance.