Vasculitis Activity-Predicting Ability of IL-12 Family Cytokines in Patients with Microscopic Polyangiitis and Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis

Circulating Malondialdehyde Is a Potential Biomarker for Predicting All-Cause Mortality during Follow-Up by Reflecting Comprehensive Inflammation at Diagnosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis

Background and Objectives: To investigate whether circulating malondialdehyde (cMDA) at diagnosis could contribute to reflecting cross-sectional comprehensive inflammation or vasculitis activity and further predicting all-cause mortality during follow-up in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis (AAV). Materials and Methods: This study included 78 patients with AAV. Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were collected as indices reflecting cross-sectional comprehensive inflammation, whereas the Birmingham vasculitis activity score (bVAS), and the five-factor score (FFS) were reviewed as AAV-specific indices. All-cause mortality was considered to be a poor outcome during follow-up. cMDA was measured from stored sera. Results: The median age of the 78 patients (32 men and 46 women) was 63.0 years. The median BVAS, FFS, ESR, and CRP were 5.0, 0, 24.5 mm/h, and 3.4 mg/L, respectively. Six patients died during the median follow-up duration based on all-cause mortality at 26.7 months. At diagnosis, cMDA was significantly correlated with cross-sectional ESR but not with BVAS or FFS. Compared to patients with cMDA < 221.7 ng/mL, those with cMDA ≥ 221.7 ng/mL at diagnosis exhibited an increased relative risk (RR 12.4) for all-cause mortality and further showed a decreased cumulative patient survival rate. Cox analyses revealed that cMDA ≥ 221.7 ng/mL (hazard ratio 24.076, p = 0.007) exhibited an independent association with all-cause mortality during follow-up in patients with AAV. Conclusions: cMDA at diagnosis may be a potential biomarker for predicting all-cause mortality during follow-up by reflecting comprehensive inflammation at diagnosis in patients with AAV.

Risk factors and an early predictive model for Kawasaki disease shock syndrome in Chinese children

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease shock syndrome (KDSS), though rare, has increased risk for cardiovascular complications. Early diagnosis is crucial to improve the prognosis of KDSS patients. Our study aimed to identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for KDSS.

METHODS

This case-control study was conducted from June, 2015 to July, 2023 in two children's hospitals in China. Children initially diagnosed with KDSS and children with Kawasaki disease (KD) without shock were matched at a ratio of 1:4 by using the propensity score method. Laboratory results obtained prior to shock syndrome and treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin were recorded to predict the onset of KDSS. Univariable logistic regression and forward stepwise logistic regression were used to select significant and independent risk factors associated with KDSS.

RESULTS

After matching by age and gender, 73 KDSS and 292 KD patients without shock formed the development dataset; 40 KDSS and 160 KD patients without shock formed the validation dataset. Interleukin-10 (IL-10) > reference value, platelet counts (PLT) < 260 × 109/L, C-reactive protein (CRP) > 80 mg/ml, procalcitonin (PCT) > 1ng/ml, and albumin (Alb) < 35 g/L were independent risk factors for KDSS. The nomogram model including the above five indicators had area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.91(95% CI: 0.87-0.94) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86) in the development and validation datasets, with a specificity and sensitivity of 80% and 86%, 66% and 77%, respectively. Calibration curves showed good predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Decision curve analyses revealed the predictive model has application value.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified IL-10, PLT, CRP, PCT and Alb as risk factors for KDSS. The nomogram model can effectively predict the occurrence of KDSS in Chinese children. It will facilitate pediatricians in early diagnosis, which is essential to the prevention of cardiovascular complications.