Important predictor of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease

MELD3.0 is superior to MELDNa and MELD for prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis: An external validation in a multi-ethnic population

Background and Aim

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was updated to MELDNa and recently to MELD3.0 to predict survival of cirrhotic patients. We validated the prognostic performance of MELD3.0 and compared with MELDNa and MELD amongst cirrhotic inpatients.

Methods

Demographical, clinical, biochemical, and survival data of cirrhotic inpatients in Singapore General Hospital (SGH) from 01 January 2018 to 31 December 2018, were studied retrospectively. Patients were followed up from first admission in 2018 until death or until 01 April 2023. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) were computed for the discriminative effects of MELD3.0, MELDNa, and MELD to predict 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities. AUROC was compared with DeLong's test. The cutoff MELD3.0 score for patients at high risk of 30-day mortality was determined using Youden's Index. Survival curves of patients with MELD3.0 score above and below the cutoff were estimated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared with log-rank analysis.

Results

Totally 862 patients were included (median age 71.0 years [interquartile range, IQR: 64.0-79.0], 65.4% males, 75.8% Chinese). Proportion of patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh classes A/B/C were 55.5%/35.5%/9.0%. Median MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD scores were 12.2 (IQR: 8.7-18.3)/11.0 (IQR: 8.0-17.5)/10.3 (IQR: 7.8-15.0). Median time of follow-up was 51.9 months (IQR: 8.5-59.6). The proportion of 30-/90-/365-day mortalities was 5.7%/13.2%/26.9%. AUROC of MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD in predicting 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities, respectively, were 0.823/0.793/0.783, 0.754/0.724/0.707, 0.682/0.654/0.644 (P < 0.05). Optimal cutoff to predict 30-day mortality was MELD3.0 > 19 (sensitivity = 67.4%, specificity = 82.4%). Patients with MELD3.0 > 19, compared with patients with MELD3.0 ≤ 19, had shorter median time to death (98.0 days [IQR: 28.8-398.0] vs 390.0 days [IQR: 134.3-927.5]), and higher proportion of 30-day mortality (68.8% vs 43.0%) (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

MELD3.0 performs better than MELDNa and MELD in predicting mortality in cirrhotic inpatients. MELD3.0 > 19 predicts higher 30-day mortality.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) have a high mortality rate.

AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of ICU patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

We extracted demographic, etiological, vital sign, laboratory test, comorbidity, complication, treatment, and severity score data of liver cirrhosis patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and electronic ICU (eICU) collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Predictor selection and model building were based on the MIMIC-IV dataset. The variables selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis were further screened through multivariate regression analysis to obtain final predictors. The final predictors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model, which was used to construct a nomogram. Finally, we conducted external validation using the eICU-CRD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the efficacy of the models.

RESULTS

Risk factors, including the mean respiratory rate, mean systolic blood pressure, mean heart rate, white blood cells, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, age, invasive ventilation, vasopressor use, maximum stage of acute kidney injury, and sequential organ failure assessment score, were included in the multivariate logistic regression. The model achieved AUCs of 0.864 and 0.808 in the MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD databases, respectively. The calibration curve also confirmed the predictive ability of the model, while the decision curve confirmed its clinical value.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram has high accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality. Improving the included predictors may help improve the prognosis of patients.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation is the main treatment for cholestatic liver disease and some metabolic liver diseases in children. However, no accurate prediction model to determine the survival probability of grafts prior to surgery exists. This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic model for allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 2032 patients who underwent pediatric liver transplantation between January 1, 2006, and January 1, 2020. A nomogram was developed using Cox regression and validated based on bootstrap sampling. Predictive and discriminatory accuracies were determined using the concordance index and visualized using calibration curves; net benefits were calculated for model comparison. An online Shiny application was developed for easy access to the model.

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis demonstrated that preoperative diagnosis, recipient age, body weight, graft type, preoperative total bilirubin, interleukin-1β, portal venous blood flow direction, spleen thickness, and the presence of heart disease and cholangitis were independent factors for survival, all of which were selected in the nomogram. Calibration of the nomogram indicated that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year predicted survival rates agreed with the actual survival rate. The concordance indices for graft survival at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.776, 0.757, and 0.753, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of the Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Pugh scoring systems. The allograft dysfunction risk of a recipient could be easily predicted using the following URL: https://aspelt.shinyapps.io/ASPELT/ / CONCLUSION: The allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation (ASPELT) score model can effectively predict the graft survival rate after liver transplantation in children, providing a simple and convenient evaluation method for clinicians and patients.

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) With Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) Functional Treatment Planning in Patients With Advanced Hepatic Cirrhosis

Purpose

We report on the feasibility and outcomes of liver stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) functional treatment planning in patients with Child-Pugh (CP) B/C cirrhosis.

Methods and Materials

Liver SPECT with 99mTc-sulfur colloid was coregistered to treatment planning computed tomography (CT) for the guided avoidance of functional hepatic parenchyma during SBRT. Functional liver volumes (FLVs) obtained from SPECT were compared with anatomic liver volumes defined on the planning CT. Radiation dose constraints were adapted exclusively to FLV. Local control, toxicity, and survival were reported with at least 6 months of radiographic follow-up. Pre- and posttransplant outcomes were analyzed in a subset of patients who completed SBRT as a bridge to liver transplant. Model of End-Stage Liver Disease was used to score hepatic function before and after SBRT completion.

Results

With a median follow-up of 32 months, 45 patients (58 lesions) with HCC and CP-B/C cirrhosis received SBRT to a median dose of 45 Gy (3-5 fractions). FLV loss (34%, P < .001) was observed in all patients, and the functional and anatomic liver volumes matched well in a control group of noncirrhotic/non-HCC patients. Despite marked functional parenchyma retraction, the amount of FLV on SPECT exposed to the threshold irradiation was significantly less than the CT liver volumes (P < .001) because of the optimized beam placement during dosimetry planning. Twenty-three patients (51%) successfully completed orthotopic liver transplant, with a median time to transplant of 9.2 months. With 91% in-field local control, the overall 2-year survival was 65% (90% after the orthotopic liver transplant), with no incidence of radiation-induced liver disease observed within 3 to 4 months or accelerated CP class migration from B to C within the first 6 months post-SBRT. Mean Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-Na score was not significantly elevated at 3-month intervals after SBRT completion.

Conclusions

Functional treatment planning with 99mTc sulfur colloid SPECT/CT allows identification and avoidance of functional hepatic parenchyma in patients with CP-B/C cirrhosis, leading to low toxicity and satisfactory transplant outcomes.

Recompensation in treatment-naïve HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis: a 5-year multi-center observational study comparing patients with ascites and bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recompensation between patients with ascites and bleeding was unknown in treatment-naïve HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective multi-center study, treatment-naïve HBV-related decompensated patients were enrolled at first decompensating event of ascites and/or variceal bleeding. Further complications and clinical characteristics were collected using standard case report form every 6 months to year-5 of antiviral treatment. Recompensation was defined as maintaining free of decompensation for one year and achieving liver function within Child-Pugh A and/or MELD < 10.

RESULTS

Totally, 170 (170/298, 57.0%) patients in ascites group of 298 (298/383, 77.8%) treatment-naïve decompensated patients and 33 (33/85, 38.8%) in bleeding group of 85 (85/383, 22.2%) patients, achieved recompensation. Ascites group had higher 5-year rate of recompensation than bleeding group (63.3% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.012), respectively. Patients achieving recompensation in ascites group maintained lower rate of second decompensation than these in bleeding group (at year-5: 26.7% vs. 43.3%, p = 0.032). Specifically, recompensated patients in ascites group had predominantly 5-year rate of further ascites (24.0%) and lower rate of further bleeding (6.0%), which differed from the pattern of these in bleeding group, with lower rate of further ascites (16.0%, p = 0.599) and significantly higher rate of further bleeding (33.9%, p < 0.001). Both patients had superior long-term prognosis (death/LT rate at year-5: 0.6% vs. 3.0%, p = 0.196).

CONCLUSION

Ascites patients could achieve higher rate of recompensation through antiviral therapy than bleeding patients. Recompensated patients in ascites group had better prognosis in terms of preventing further bleeding.

The Prognostic Significance of Uric Acid/Albumin Ratio in Patients with Aortic Stenosis Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation for Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebral Events

Background: The goal of this study was to examine if the uric acid/albumin ratio (UAR) could predict major adverse cardiac and cerebral events (MACCEs) such as stroke, readmission, and short-term all-cause death in aortic stenosis (AS) patients, after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Material and Methods: A total of 150 patients who had TAVI for AS between 2013 and 2022 were included in our study, retrospectively. Before the TAVI, each patient’s baseline uric acid/albumin was determined. The study’s major endpoint was MACCEs, which included stroke, re-hospitalization, and 12-month all-cause death. Results: The UAR was found to be higher in TAVI patients who developed MACCEs than in those who did not develop them. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the UAR (HR: 95% CI; 2.478 (1.779–3.453) p < 0.01), was an independent predictor of MACCEs in AS patients after TAVI. The optimal value of the UAR for MACCEs in AS patients following TAVI was >1.68 with 88% sensitivity and 66% specificity (AUC (the area under the curve): 0.899, p < 0.01). We noted that the AUC of UAR in predicting MACCEs was significantly higher than the AUC of albumin (AUC: 0.823) and uric acid (AUC: 0.805, respectively). Conclusion: MACCEs in AS patients who received TAVI may be predicted by high pre-procedural uric acid/albumin levels. The uric acid/albumin ratio (UAR) can be used to determine MACCEs in such patients following TAVI because it is inexpensive and straightforward to calculate inflammatory parameters.

A Low Daily Intake of Simple Sugars in the Diet Is Associated with Improved Liver Function in Cirrhotic Liver Transplant Candidates

(1) Background: We investigated, for the first time, whether dietary simple sugar intake affects MELD score changes over time in a cohort of cirrhotic liver transplant candidates. (2) Methods: the MELD score, dietary habits using a 3-day food diary, and visceral adipose tissue index (VATI) measured with CT scan were assessed in 80 consecutive outpatient cirrhotic patients at baseline, after counseling to follow current nutritional guidelines. The MELD score was reassessed after six months and the DELTA-MELD was calculated as the MELD at the second assessment minus the MELD at baseline. (3) Results: Compared with the baseline, the MELD score of cirrhotic patients at the end of the study was decreased, stable, or increased in 36%, 8% and 56% of patients, respectively. In separate multiple linear regression models, DELTA-MELD was positively and independently correlated with the daily intake of simple sugars expressed in g/kg body weight (p = 0.01) or as a percentage of total caloric intake (p = 0.0004) and with the number of daily portions of fruit, added sugar, jam, and honey (p = 0.003). These associations were present almost exclusively in patients with VATI above the median value. (4) Conclusions: In cirrhotic patients with high amounts of visceral adipose tissue the consumption of simple sugars and fructose should be limited to improve their clinical outcome.

Palliative Care for Patients with End-Stage Liver Disease

End-stage liver disease (ESLD) is the culmination of progression of chronic liver disease to cirrhosis, decompensation, and chronic liver failure, featuring portal hypertension or hepatocellular failure-related complications. Liver transplantation offers improved long-term survival for these patients but is negatively influenced by donor availability, financial constraints in developing countries, active substance abuse, progression of disease or malignancy on wait-list, sepsis and extrahepatic organ involvement. In this context, palliative care (PC), an interdisciplinary medical practice that aim to prevent and relieve suffering, offers best possible quality of life and is not limited to end-of-life care. It also encompasses achievable goals such as symptom control and aggressive disease-modifying treatments or interventions that beneficially alter the natural course of the disease to offer curative intend. In this narrative review, we discuss the prognostic factors that define disease course in ESLD, various indications and challenges in PC for advanced cirrhosis and management options for major symptom burden in patients with ESLD based on evidence-based best practice.

A Single Nucleotide Polymorphism rs1010816 Predicts Sorafenib Therapeutic Outcomes in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Sorafenib is currently a targeted agent widely used in the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). However, to date there is still a lack of a reliable marker capable of predicting sorafenib therapeutic responses. Here, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify candidate single-nucleotide polymorphism outcome predictors in aHCC patients. A total of 74 real-world sorafenib-treated aHCC patients were enrolled for GWAS and outcome analysis. GWAS showed that rs1010816 (p = 2.2 × 10^-7) was associated with sorafenib therapeutic response in aHCC patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the "TT" genotype was significantly associated with a favorable therapeutic response but not significantly associated with overall survival (OS). Univariate followed by multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that ascites, main portal vein thrombosis, lower platelet count, lower total sorafenib doses, higher PALBI score in model A and higher ALBI grade in model B were significantly associated with a shorter OS. Subgroup analysis showed that only in alcoholic aHCC patients treated by sorafenib, rs1010816 "TT" genotype was significantly associated with longer OS (p = 0.021). Sorafenib had a favorable therapeutic outcome in alcoholic aHCC patients carrying rs1010816 "TT" genotype.

Low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels predicting poor outcomes in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

Lipid profile disorders frequently occur in patients with advanced liver diseases. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels decrease rapidly during acute conditions of some diseases, and HDL-C levels may be related to mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

Materials and methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 200 subjects with HBV-ACLF. The patients were separated into non-survivors and survivors according to their 28-day outcome. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of mortality, and the performance of these predictors was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to draw survival curves of HDL-C.

Results

The 28-day mortality in the cohort was 27.0%. HDL-C levels differed markedly between non-survivors and survivors. In the multivariate analysis, HDL-C, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF II (COSSH-ACLF II) scores were identified as independent predictors for mortality (HR = 0.806, 95% CI: 0.724-0.898; HR = 1.424, 95% CI: 1.143-1.775; HR = 1.006, 95% CI: 1.002-1.007; and HR = 1.609, 95% CI: 1.005-2.575, respectively). Patients with lower HDL-C levels had a worse prognosis than those with higher HDL-C levels. In ROC analysis, the prognostic accuracy for mortality was similar between HDL-C (AUROC: 0.733) and the CTP, MELD, and COSSH-ACLF II scores (AUROC: 0.753; 0.674 and 0.770, respectively).

Conclusion

The HDL-C level may serve as a potential indicator for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF and can be used as a simple marker for risk assessment and selection of therapeutic options.

Effect of sarcopenia on survival in patients with cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The association between sarcopenia and prognosis in patients with cirrhosis remains to be determined. In this study, we aimed to quantify the association between sarcopenia and the risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis, stratified by sex, underlying liver disease etiology, and severity of hepatic dysfunction.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and major scientific conference sessions were searched without language restriction through 13 January 2021 with an additional manual search of bibliographies of relevant articles. Cohort studies of ≥100 patients with cirrhosis and ≥12 months of follow-up that evaluated the association between sarcopenia, muscle mass and the risk of mortality were included.

RESULTS

Twenty-two studies involving 6,965 patients with cirrhosis were included. The pooled prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis was 37.5% overall (95% CI 32.4%-42.8%), and was higher in male patients, those with alcohol-associated liver disease, those with Child-Pugh grade C cirrhosis, and when sarcopenia was defined by L3-SMI (third lumbar-skeletal muscle index). Sarcopenia was associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.30, 95% CI 2.01-2.63), with similar findings in a sensitivity analysis of patients with cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma (aHR 2.35, 95% CI 1.95-2.83) and in subgroups stratified by sex, liver disease etiology, and severity of hepatic dysfunction. The association between quantitative muscle mass index and mortality further supports the association between sarcopenia and poor prognosis (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.98). There was no significant heterogeneity in any of our analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia was highly and independently associated with higher risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

LAY SUMMARY

The prevalence of sarcopenia and its association with death in patients with cirrhosis remain unclear. This meta-analysis indicated that sarcopenia affected about one-third of patients with cirrhosis and up to 50% of patients with alcohol-related liver disease or Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis. Sarcopenia was independently associated with an ∼2-fold higher risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. The mortality rate increased with greater severity or longer durations of sarcopenia. Increasing awareness about the importance of sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis among stakeholders must be prioritized.

Pleural Effusions Identified by Point-of-Care Ultrasound Predict Poor Outcomes in Decompensated Cirrhosis

Chronic liver disease (CLD) may be associated with pleural effusions (PEs). This article prospectively evaluates whether detection of PEs on thoracic ultrasound (TUS) at the bedside independently predicts mortality and length of stay (LOS) in hospitalized patients with a decompensated CLD. A total of 116 consecutive inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis underwent antero-posterior chest radiographs (CXR) and TUS to detect PEs. Their median age was 54 y (interquartile range, 47-62), 90 (70.6%) were male, and 61 (52.6%) fell into the Child-Pugh class C categorization. TUS identified PEs in 58 (50%) patients, half of which were small enough to preclude thoracentesis. CXR failed to recognize approximately 40% of PEs seen on TUS. The identification of PEs by TUS was associated with a longer LOS (10 vs. 5.5 d, p < 0.001) and double mortality (39.7% vs. 20.7%, p = 0.021). In multivariate analysis, PEs were independently related to poor survival (hazard ratio 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-4.25; p = 0.044). Patients with both Child-Pugh C stage and PEs had the lowest survival rate (70 vs. 317 d, p = 0.001). In conclusion, PEs identified by TUS in hospitalized patients with decompensated CLD independently predict a poor outcome and portend a longer LOS.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma and the Role of Liver Transplantation: A Review

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths worldwide and liver transplantation (LT) is the only potentially curative treatment. Over the years, Milan criteria has been used for patient selection. There is ongoing research in this field with introduction of new biomarkers for HCC that can help guide future treatment. Furthermore, newer therapies for downstaging of the tumor are being implemented to prevent dropout from the transplant list. In addition, combination therapies for better outcome are under investigation. Interestingly, the concept of living-donor LT and possible use of hepatitis C virus-positive donors has been implemented as an attempt to expand the organ pool. However, there is a conflict of opinion between different centers regarding its efficacy and data is scarce. The aim of this review article is to outline the various selection criteria for LT, discuss the outcomes of LT in HCC patients, and explore future directions of LT for HCC. Therefore, a comprehensive PubMed/MEDLINE review was conducted. To expand our search, references of the retrieved articles were also screened for additional data. After selecting the studies, the authors independently reviewed them to identify the relevant studies. After careful evaluation 120 studies relevant to out topic are cited in the manuscript. Three tables and two figures are also included. In conclusion LT for HCC has evolved over the years. With the introduction of several expanded criteria beyond Milan, the introduction of bridging therapies, such as transcatheter arterial chemoembolization and radiofrequency ablation, and the approval of newer systemic therapies, it is evident that there will be more LT recipients in the future. It is promising to see ongoing trials and the continuous evolution of protocols. Prospective studies are needed to guide the development of a pre-LT criteria that can ensure low HCC recurrence risk and is not overly stringent, clarify the role of LDLT, and determine the optimal bridging therapies to LT.

A novel optical assay system for bilirubin concentration measurement in whole blood

As a biomarker for liver disease, bilirubin has been utilized in prognostic scoring systems for cirrhosis. While laboratory-based methods are used to determine bilirubin levels in clinical settings, they do not readily lend themselves to applications outside of hospitals. Consequently, bilirubin monitoring for cirrhotic patients is often performed only intermittently; thus, episodes requiring clinical interventions could be missed. This work investigates the feasibility of measuring bilirubin concentration in whole porcine blood samples using dual-wavelength transmission measurement. A compact and low-cost dual-wavelength transmission measurement setup is developed and optimized to measure whole blood bilirubin concentrations. Using small volumes of whole porcine blood (72 L), we measured the bilirubin concentration within a range corresponding to healthy individuals and cirrhotic patients (1.2-30 mg/dL). We demonstrate that bilirubin levels can be estimated with a positive correlation (R-square > 0.95) and an accuracy of 1.7 mg/dL, with higher reliability in cirrhotic bilirubin concentrations (> 4 mg/dL) critical for high-risk patients. The optical and electronic components utilized are economical and can be readily integrated into a miniature, low-cost, and user-friendly system. This could provide a pathway for point-of-care monitoring of blood bilirubin outside of medical facilities (e.g. patients home).

Exploring and predicting mortality among patients with end-stage liver disease without cancer: a machine learning approach

OBJECTIVE

End-stage liver disease is a global public health problem with a high mortality rate. Early identification of people at risk of poor prognosis is fundamental for decision-making in clinical settings. This study created a machine learning prediction system that provides several related models with visualized graphs, including decision trees, ensemble learning and clustering, to predict mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted: the training data were from patients enrolled from January 2009 to December 2010 and followed up to December 2014; validation data were from patients enrolled from January 2015 to December 2016 and followed up to January 2019. Hospitalized patients with noncancer-related chronic liver disease were identified from the hospital's electrical medical records.

RESULTS

In traditional multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard model, prothrombin time of international normalized ratio, which was significant with P value = 0.002, odds ratio = 2.790 and hazard ratio 1.363. Besides, blood urea nitrogen and C-reactive protein were also significant, with P value <0.001 and 0.026. The area under the curve was 0.771 in the receiver operating characteristic curve. In machine learning, blood urea nitrogen and age were regarded as the primary factors for predicting mortality. Creatinine, prothrombin time of international normalized ratio and bilirubin were also significant mortality predictors. The area under the curve of the random forest and AdaBoost was 0.838 and 0.792.

CONCLUSION

The machine learning techniques provided a comprehensive assessment of patient conditions; it could help physicians make an accurate diagnosis of chronic liver disease and improve healthcare management.

Direct Bilirubin Is More Valuable than Total Bilirubin for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Background/Aims

Most prognostic prediction models for patients with liver cirrhosis include serum total bilirubin (TB) level as a component. This study investigated prognostic performance of serum direct bilirubin (DB) and developed new DB level-based prediction models for cirrhosis.

Methods

A total of 983 hospitalized patients with liver cirrhosis were included. DB-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was calculated using MELD score formula, with serum DB level replacing TB level.

Results

Mean age of study population was 56.1 years. Alcoholic liver disease was the most frequent underlying condition (471 patients, 47.9%). Within 6 months, 144 patients (14.6%) died or received liver transplantation due to severe liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for prediction of 6-month mortality with DB level was significantly higher than that with TB level (p<0.001). The AUROC of DB-MELD score for prediction of 6-month mortality was significantly higher than that of MELD score (p<0.001). Patients were randomly divided into training (n=492) and validation (n=491) cohorts. A new prognostic prediction model, “Direct Bilirubin, INR, and Creatinine” (DiBIC) score, was developed based on the most significant predictors of 6-month mortality. In training set, AUROC of DiBIC score for prediction of 6-month mortality was 0.892, which was significantly higher than that of the MELD score (0.875, p=0.017), but not different from that of DB-MELD score (0.886, p=0.272). Similar results were observed in validation set.

Conclusions

New prognostic models, DB-MELD and DiBIC scores, have good prognostic performance in liver cirrhosis patients, outperforming other currently available models.

Insulin-like growth factor 1/Child-Turcotte-Pugh composite score as a predictor of treatment outcomes in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

Background: Sorafenib was the first systemic therapy approved for the treatment of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, there are no biomarkers to predict survival and treatment outcomes and guide HCC systemic therapy. Type 1 insulin-like growth factor (IGF-1)/CTP composite score has emerged as a potential hepatic reserve assessment tool. Our study investigated the association of the IGF/CTP score with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of HCC patients treated with sorafenib.

Materials and Methods: In this prospective study, patients with HCC were treated with sorafenib and followed up until progression/death. We calculated the IGF/CTP score and used the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to estimate and compare the time-to-event outcomes between patient subgroups.

Results: 171 patients were included, 116 of whom were CTP class A. Median PFS for IGF/CTP score AA and AB patients were 6.88 and 4.28 months, respectively (p = 0.1359). Median OS for IGF/CTP score AA and AB patients were 14.54 and 7.60 months, respectively (p = 0.1378). The PFS and OS was superior in AA patients, but the difference was not significant, likely due to the sample size. However, there was a significant difference in early OS and PFS curves between AA and AB (p = 0.0383 and p = 0.0099), respectively.

Conclusions: In CTP class A patients, IGF/CTP score B was associated with shorter PFS and OS, however, study was underpowered to reach statistical significance. If validated in larger cohorts, IGF/CTP score may serve as stratification tool in clinical trials, a hepatic reserve assessment tool for HCC outcomes prediction and to assist in therapy decisions.

T2 mapping in gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI: utility for predicting decompensation and death in cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether T2 mapping in liver MRI can predict decompensation and death in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 292 cirrhotic patients who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI, including T1 and T2 mapping at 10-min hepatobiliary phase by using the Look-Locker and radial turbo spin-echo sequences, respectively. T1 and T2 values of the liver and spleen were measured. The association of MR parameters and serum markers with decompensation and death was investigated. Risk models combining T2_Liver, serum albumin level, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score were created for predicting decompensation (T2_Liver, < 49.3 versus ≥ 49.3 ms) and death (< 57.4 versus ≥ 57.4 ms).

RESULTS

In patients with compensated cirrhosis at baseline and in the full patient cohort, 9.6% (19 of 197) and 5.1% (15 of 292) developed decompensation and died during the mean follow-up periods of 18.7 and 19.2 months, respectively. A prolonged T2_Liver (hazard ratio (HR), 2.59; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26, 5.31) was independently predictive of decompensation along with the serum albumin level (HR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.12, 0.68) and MELD score (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.08, 1.66). T2_Liver (HR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.19, 5.72) and serum albumin level (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.19, 1.14) were independent predictors of death. The mean times to decompensation (12.9 versus 29.2 months) and death (16.5 versus 29.6 months) were significantly different between the high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

T2_Liver from T2 mapping can predict decompensation and death in patients with cirrhosis.

KEY POINTS

• Liver T2 values from the radial turbo spin-echo (TSE) T2 mapping sequence with tiered echo sharing and pseudo golden-angle (pGA) reordering were significantly higher in decompensated cirrhosis than compensated cirrhosis. • Liver T2 values from the radial TSE T2 mapping sequence with tiered echo sharing and pGA reordering can predict decompensation and death in patients with cirrhosis. • T2 mapping is recommended as part of liver MRI examinations for cirrhotic patients because it can provide a noninvasive prognostic marker for the development of decompensation and death.

Albumin-bilirubin index and platelet-albumin-bilirubin index contribute to identifying survival benefit candidates in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Pugh grade A undergoing transcatheter arterial chemoembolization with sorafenib treatment

Background

Combined therapy of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) with sorafenib is used for a large number of patients with intermediate-stage or advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its implementation is limited by the evaluation of pre-treatment liver function reserve. This study aimed to validate the performance of the albumin-bilirubin index (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin index (PALBI) in predicting survival benefits in patients with HCC and Child-Pugh grade A receiving TACE combined with sorafenib treatment.

Methods

From 2004 to 2018, 418 patients with intermediate/advanced-stage HCC and Child-Pugh grade A receiving TACE combined with sorafenib treatment were retrospectively enrolled. The predictive performance of ALBI and PALBI was explored by survival analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis.

Results

The median overall survival (mOS) was 24 and 12 months in patients with ALBI grade 1 and grade 2, respectively. The mOS of patients with PALBI grade 1, grade 2, and grade 3 was 23, 16, and 7 months, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that ALBI grade 2 [hazard ratio (HR) =1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.74] and PALBI grade 3 (HR =3.72, 95% CI: 2.26–6.06) were associated with unfavorable prognosis. The ROC analysis revealed that ALBI and PALBI scores had better prediction performance compared with the Child-Pugh score. Subgroup analysis confirmed that by using ALBI or PALBI, patients could be stratified into subgroups with different liver function reserves and distinctive prognosis, regardless of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, combination modality, or α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels.

Conclusions

Both ALBI and PALBI could predict prognosis in patients with HCC and Child-Pugh grade A receiving TACE and sorafenib. Patients with ALBI or PALBI grade 1 harbored a more favorable survival outcome compared with those with ALBI or PALBI grade 2–3, and hence should be recommended as the best candidates for TACE combined with sorafenib treatment.

Delta MELD as a predictor of early outcome in adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

An increased post-operative mortality risk has been reported among patients who undergo living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) with higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. In this study, we investigated the effect of MELD score reduction on post-operative outcomes in patients with a high MELD (≥20) score by pre-transplant management.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 386 LDLT cases, and patients were divided into low-MELD (<20, n=293) vs. high-MELD (≥20, n=93) groups according to their MELD score at the time of index hospitalization. Patients in the high-MELD group were managed specifically according to a treatment algorithm in an effort to decrease the MELD score. Patients in the high-MELD group were further divided into 2 subgroups: (1) responders (n=34) to pre-transplant treatment with subsequent reduction of the MELD score by a minimum of 1 point vs. (2) non-responders (n=59), whose MELD score remained unchanged or further increased on the day of LDLT. Responders vs. non-responders were compared according to etiology, demographics, and survival.

Prognostic scoring system for metastatic spine tumors derived from hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently improved, and so clinicians have greater opportunity to treat HCC-derived spinal metastases. Therefore, predicting life expectancy is important for determining the optimal treatment strategy for such tumors. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors for HCC-derived metastatic spine tumors and to develop a scoring system for predicting life expectancy in such cases.

METHODS

The posttreatment survival time and factors that might influence it were investigated in 62 patients with HCC-derived metastatic spine tumors who were treated at our department (surgery: 27 patients and conservative treatment: 35 patients), and a prognostic scoring system for predicting life expectancy was developed by combining the factors that significantly influenced survival.

RESULTS

In the univariate analyses, sex, the patient's general condition, the presence/absence of major internal organ metastasis, the total revised Tokuhashi score, the serum albumin level, Child-Pugh class, spinal surgery, and bone-modifying agent (BMA) treatment were found to influence the posttreatment survival time. These factors were subjected to multivariate analysis, and a novel scoring system for predicting life expectancy based on the patient's general condition, the serum albumin level (or Child-Pugh class), and BMA treatment was developed. In the retrospective analysis, the concordance rate between the patients' life expectancy and actual survival times was 90.3%.

CONCLUSION

The patient's general condition, the serum albumin level (or Child-Pugh class), and BMA treatment influenced the posttreatment survival times of patients with HCC-derived metastatic spine tumors. A prognostic scoring system based on these factors was proposed.

Prognostic value of the creatinine-albumin ratio in acute pancreatitis debridement

Background

Increases in the levels of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and creatinine (Cr) and decreases in those of albumin (Alb) are commonly observed in acute pancreatitis (AP). We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the Cr/Alb and CRP/Alb ratios in the prediction of surgical treatment effect in AP patients.

Methods

This study retrospectively analyzed clinical data obtained from 140 AP patients who underwent debridement from January 2008 to November 2018 in Shanghai Ruijin Hospital. The Cr/Alb and CRP/Alb ratios at admission and before surgery were assessed in the analysis of clinical statistics, prediction of prognoses, and logistic regression analysis.

Results

The admission Cr/Alb had the best predictive value of the four ratios. This value was significantly higher in patients with re-operation and those who died (P < 0.05) and was correlated with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, admission CRP/Alb, preoperative Cr/Alb, and post-operative complications. The admission Cr/Alb could predict the risk of AP-related re-operation and mortality with sensitivities, specificities and areas under the curve of 86.3%, 61.7% and 0.824, and 73.4%, 81.3% and 0.794, respectively. At a cut-off value of 3.43, admission Cr/Alb values were indicative of a worse clinical state, including impaired laboratory test values, APACHE II scores, rates of post-operative complications and re-operation, and mortality (P < 0.05). In the logistic regression analysis, admission Cr/Alb values were independently related to the APACHE II score, post-operative renal failure, and mortality.

Conclusion

Cr/Alb is a novel but promising, easy-to-measure, reproducible, non-invasive prognostic score for the prediction of the effect of debridement in AP patients.

Serial Observations of Muscle and Fat Mass as Prognostic Factors for Deceased Donor Liver Transplantation

Objective

Muscle depletion in patients undergoing liver transplantation affects the recipients' prognosis and therefore cannot be overlooked. We aimed to evaluate whether changes in muscle and fat mass during the preoperative period are associated with prognosis after deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT).

Materials and Methods

This study included 72 patients who underwent DDLT and serial computed tomography (CT) scans. Skeletal muscle index (SMI) and fat mass index (FMI) were calculated using the muscle and fat area in CT performed 1 year prior to surgery (1 yr Pre-LT), just before surgery (Pre-LT), and after transplantation (Post-LT). Simple aspects of serial changes in muscle and fat mass were analyzed during three measurement time points. The rate of preoperative changes in body composition parameters were calculated (preoperative ΔSMI [%] = [SMI at Pre-LT − SMI at 1 yr Pre-LT] / SMI at Pre-LT × 100; preoperative ΔFMI [%] = [FMI at Pre-LT − FMI at 1 yr Pre-LT] / FMI at Pre-LT × 100) and assessed for correlation with patient survival.

Results

SMI significantly decreased during the preoperative period (mean preoperative ΔSMI, −13.04%, p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, preoperative ΔSMI (p = 0.016) and model for end-stage liver disease score (p = 0.011) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The mean survival time for patients with a threshold decrease in the preoperative ΔSMI (≤ −30%) was significantly shorter than for other patients (p = 0.007). Preoperative ΔFMI was not a prognostic factor but FMI increased during the postoperative period (p = 0.009) in all patients.

Conclusion

A large reduction in preoperative SMI was significantly associated with reduced survival after DDLT. Therefore, changes in muscle mass during the preoperative period can be considered as a prognostic factor for survival after DDLT.

Machine-Learning Monitoring System for Predicting Mortality Among Patients With Noncancer End-Stage Liver Disease: Retrospective Study

Background

Patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) have limited treatment options and have a deteriorated quality of life with an uncertain prognosis. Early identification of ESLD patients with a poor prognosis is valuable, especially for palliative care. However, it is difficult to predict ESLD patients that require either acute care or palliative care.

Objective

We sought to create a machine-learning monitoring system that can predict mortality or classify ESLD patients. Several machine-learning models with visualized graphs, decision trees, ensemble learning, and clustering were assessed.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using electronic medical records of patients from Wan Fang Hospital and Taipei Medical University Hospital. A total of 1214 patients from Wan Fang Hospital were used to establish a dataset for training and 689 patients from Taipei Medical University Hospital were used as a validation set.

Results

The overall mortality rate of patients in the training set and validation set was 28.3% (257/907) and 22.6% (145/643), respectively. In traditional clinical scoring models, prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, which was significant in the Cox regression (P<.001, hazard ratio 1.288), had a prominent influence on predicting mortality, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve reached approximately 0.75. In supervised machine-learning models, the concordance statistic of ROC curves reached 0.852 for the random forest model and reached 0.833 for the adaptive boosting model. Blood urea nitrogen, bilirubin, and sodium were regarded as critical factors for predicting mortality. Creatinine, hemoglobin, and albumin were also significant mortality predictors. In unsupervised learning models, hierarchical clustering analysis could accurately group acute death patients and palliative care patients into different clusters from patients in the survival group.

Conclusions

Medical artificial intelligence has become a cutting-edge tool in clinical medicine, as it has been found to have predictive ability in several diseases. The machine-learning monitoring system developed in this study involves multifaceted analyses, which include various aspects for evaluation and diagnosis. This strength makes the clinical results more objective and reliable. Moreover, the visualized interface in this system offers more intelligible outcomes. Therefore, this machine-learning monitoring system provides a comprehensive approach for assessing patient condition, and may help to classify acute death patients and palliative care patients. Upon further validation and improvement, the system may be used to help physicians in the management of ESLD patients.

Clinical outcomes of sedation during emergency endoscopic band ligation for variceal bleeding: Multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Few studies have directly compared the efficacy of sedated- and un-sedated endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for acute variceal bleeding. We aimed to determine whether sedation during EVL in patients with variceal bleeding is safe and effective.

METHODS

We analyzed data from patients who underwent EVL for acute variceal bleeding according to sedation in six hospitals of Hallym University Medical Center. The primary endpoint was treatment failure, defined as a failure to control bleeding, death during EVL, or rebleeding within 5 days. Secondary endpoints included the procedure time, adverse events, and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of 1,300 patients who were included, only 430 (33.1%) received sedation during EVL. Propofol alone was used for sedation in 85% of sedated-EVLs. The mean procedure time in the sedation group was shorter than that of the non-sedation group (12.4 ± 9.5 min versus 13.8 ± 9.4 min, P = 0.010). The proportion of treatment failure did not differ between the groups (7.4% versus 9.1%, P = 0.374). In the multivariable analysis, an AIMS65 score ≥2 and blood transfusion within 72 hours were associated with treatment failure of EVL; however, the use of sedation was not (odds ratio [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.96 [0.60-1.51]). Adverse events during EVL and hepatic encephalopathy did not differ between the two groups. Sedation also did not affect the 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [95% CI] = 0.99 [0.66-1.47]).

CONCLUSION

Sedation reduced the procedure time of EVL. Sedation is safe to use during EVL for variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis.

Are the C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) novel inflammatory biomarkers in the early diagnosis of postoperative complications after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy?

PURPOSE

C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are new generation inflammatory markers that have been investigated for use in determining disease prognosis or postoperative morbidity and mortality after many open surgeries. The aim of this study is to investigate the efficacy of CAR, NLR, and PLR on the early detection of postoperative complications (POC) after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG).

MATERIAL-METHOD

The study included 448 patients, 16-65 years of age, who underwent LSG between 2015 and 2019. C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin levels were measured on postoperative day 1 and 3 and CAR values were obtained. NLR and PLR values were evaluated preoperatively and on postoperative day 1 and 3. Statistical analyses were performed using the SPSS version 21.0 and MedCalc.

RESULTS

A total of 326 patients with a mean age of 37 ± 11 years were analyzed. Both CAR1 and CAR3 values were correlated with the development of complications (r = 0.3, r = 0.3, respectively p < 0.001). Pre-op NLR value was found to be a significant risk factor on complication development (OR = 1.943, p = 0.043). The cut-off value for CAR1 and CAR3 were found as 0.78 and 1.25 mg/dL in ROC analysis (AUC = 0.808, AUC = 0.832, respectively). PLR3 value was diagnostic among other PLR values in the determination of POC (AUC = 0.703 Youden index = 0.36 p = 0.014).

CONCLUSION

The most significant diagnostic value for the determination of POC was CAR3. It was followed by CAR1, CRP3, CRP1, and PLR3 values. Only preoperative NLR was found as a risk factor for the development of POC.

Coronary atherosclerosis profile in patients with end-stage liver disease prior to liver transplantation due to alcoholic fatty liver: a coronary CTA study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the coronary atherosclerosis profile by coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) in patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) due to alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) evaluated for liver transplantation (LT), in a retrospective matched case-controlled cohort study.

METHODS

One hundred forty patients (age 60.6 years ± 9.8, 20.7% females) who underwent coronary CTA were included. Seventy patients with ESLD due to ARLD (ESLD-alc) were propensity score (1:1) matched for age, gender, and the major 5 cardiovascular risk factors with healthy controls. CTA analysis included the following: stenosis severity according to CAD-RADS as (0) = no, (1) minimal < 25%, (2) mild 25-50%, (3) moderate 50-70%, and (4) severe > 70% stenosis, total mixed plaque burden weighted for non-calcified component (G-score) and high-risk plaque criteria (Napkin-Ring, low attenuation plaque, spotty calcification, positive remodeling).

RESULTS

Prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) was high (84.4%) in the ESLD-alc group but similar to controls. Stenosis severity was similar (CAD-RADS, 1.9 vs. 2.2, p = 0.289). High-grade stenosis (> 70%) was observed in 12.5% of ESLD-alc patients. High-risk plaques were less frequent in the ESLD-alc cohort as compared to controls (4.5% vs. 37.5%, p < 0.001), and total mixed plaque burden was lower (G-score, 4.9 versus 7.4, p = 0.001). Plaque density was lower in controls (56.6HU ± 3.2 vs. 91.3HU ± 4.5, p = 0.007) indicating more lipid-rich in controls, but higher mixed fibro-calcific plaque component in those with alcohol-related ESLD.

CONCLUSION

Patients with alcohol-related ESLD exhibit more mixed fibro-calcified plaques but less plaque with high-risk features and less fibro-fatty plaque burden, while total CAD prevalence is high.

KEY POINTS

• Patients with ESLD prior to LT have a high total prevalence of CAD and stenosis severity, which is similar to those of healthy controls with an identical cardiovascular risk profile. • Patients with ESLD prior to LT due to alcohol abuse have more calcific but less fibro-fatty plaque and less high-risk plaque. • CTA seems to be a useful imaging technique for risk stratification prior to LT.

Management Options for Gastric Variceal Hemorrhage

Importance

Varices are one of the main clinical manifestations of cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Gastric varices are less common than esophageal varices but are often associated with poorer prognosis, mainly because of their higher propensity to bleed.

Observations

Currently, treatments used to control and manage gastric variceal bleeding include β-blockers, endoscopic injection sclerotherapy, endoscopic variceal ligation, endoscopic variceal obturation, shunt surgery, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts, balloon-occluded retrograde transvenous obliteration (BRTO), and modified BRTO. In the past few decades, Western (United States and Europe) interventional radiologists have preferred transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts that aim to decompress the liver and reduce portal pressure. Conversely, Eastern radiologists (Japan and South Korea) have preferred BRTO that directly targets the gastric varices. Over the past 20 years, BRTO has evolved and procedure-related risks have decreased. Owing to its safety and efficiency in treating gastric varices, BRTO is now starting to gain popularity among Western interventional radiologists. In this review, we present a comprehensive literature review of current and emerging management options, including BRTO and modified BRTO, for the treatment of gastric varices in the setting of cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Conclusions and Relevance

Balloon-occluded retrograde transvenous obliteration has emerged as a safe and effective alternative treatment option for gastric variceal hemorrhage. A proper training, evidence-based consensus and guideline, thorough preprocedural and postprocedural evaluation, and a multidisciplinary team approach with BRTO and modified BRTO are strongly recommended to ensure best patient care.

Multifactorial Scores and Biomarkers of Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: Applications to Research and Practice

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.

Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score, MELD Score and MELD-Na Score as Predictors of Short-Term Mortality among Patients with End-Stage Liver Disease in Northern India

Background and Objectives

Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) scores are used for predicting disease severity and mortality among patients with end-stage liver disease. However, data regarding their usefulness in predicting the short-term outcome of end-stage liver disease are not available in India. This prospective study compared the CTP score, MELD score and MELD-Na score as predictors of short-term outcome among patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods

CTP, MELD and MELD-Na scores were determined in 171 patients with end-stage liver disease at a tertiary healthcare centre in India at the time of admission, and the concordance (C-) statistics of the three scores for 3-month mortality were assessed and compared. The aetiology of end-stage liver disease and the clinical presentation were determined.

Results

The CTP score, MELD score and MELD-Na score on day 1 were significantly higher among non-survivors than among survivors (p < 0.0001 each). The C-statistic for 3-month mortality for the CTP score was 0.93 (p < 0.0001), that for the MELD score was 0.86 (p < 0.0001) and that for the MELD-Na score was 0.83 (p < 0.0001). The C-statistics of these scores differed significantly for 3-month mortality, and the CTP score was better than the MELD (p < 0.0001) and MELD-Na (p < 0.0001) scores in predicting 3-month mortality.

Conclusions

The CTP, MELD and MELD-Na scores were very good predictors of mortality at 3 months among patients with end-stage liver disease. The CTP score was superior to the MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 3-month mortality.

A Novel Predictor Parameter for Active Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis: C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio

Objective

Laboratory analysis results may provide an opportunity to predict the activity process of recurrent aphthous stomatitis. The goal of this study was to investigate whether there is a correlation between C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) and oral ulcer activity in patients with recurrent aphthous stomatitis.

Materials and methods

We included 72 patients (39 with active and 33 with inactive lesion) with recurrent aphthous stomatitis and 60 healthy controls. We compared blood test parameters including CAR, white blood cell count (WBC) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) among the groups. Additionally, we investigated the most significant parameter for the activity of oral ulcers.

Results

NLR was significantly higher both in the active (p<0.001) and inactive lesion groups (p<0.001), compared to the control group but did not significantly differ between active and inactive lesion groups (p=0.17). A significant difference in median CAR (p<0.001) and WBC (p<0.001) was evident among the three groups. Median WBC was significantly higher in the active lesion group compared to the control group (p<0.001) but did not significantly differ between active and inactive lesion groups (p=0.095). Median CAR was significantly higher in the active lesion group, compared both to the inactive lesion group (p=0.002) and the control group (p<0.001). Median CAR was also significantly higher in the inactive lesion group compared to the control group (p<0.001). Median hemoglobin, platelet to lymphocyte ratio and mean platelet volume did not significantly differ among three groups (p=0.16, p=0.85, p=0.19, respectively).

Conclusion

CAR could be used as a predictive parameter for inflammation and activity of oral ulcers in patients with recurrent aphthous stomatitis.

The association of high-normal international-normalized-ratio (INR) with mortality in patients referred for coronary angiography

Aims

The international-normalized-ratio (INR) is typically used to monitor patients on warfarin or related oral anticoagulant therapy. The aim of our study was to investigate the association of the INR with mortality in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients not on oral anticoagulant therapy.

Methods and results

Between 1997 to 2000 the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study enrolled 3316 patients of German ancestry that had been referred for coronary angiography. We excluded patients on coumarin therapy (n = 222) and patients with an INR more than 5 standard deviations (SD) away from the mean (n = 30). During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 884 patients died, 547 patients from cardiovascular causes. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors the INR was associated with all-cause mortality in all patients and the CAD positive group with HRs (95% CI) of 1.14(1.07–1.21) and 1.16(1.09–1.23) per 1-SD increase, respectively. Adjustment for NT-proBNP rendered the association insignificant.

Conclusion

In LURIC, the INR was positively associated with mortality in patients with prevalent CAD not on oral anticoagulant therapy as well as in patients without CAD. Adjustment for NT-proBNP abolished the association suggesting clinical or subclinical heart failure strongly contributing to increased INR and higher mortality.

Prognostic markers at adolescence in patients requiring liver transplantation for biliary atresia in adulthood

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In patients with biliary atresia (BA), the rate of native liver survival (NLS) to adulthood has been reported as 14-44% worldwide. Complications related to portal hypertension (PHT) and cholangitis are common in adulthood. For those requiring liver transplantation (LT), the timing can be challenging. The aim of this study was to identify variables that could predict whether young people with BA would require LT when they are >16 years of age.

METHODS

This study was a single-centre retrospective analysis of 397 patients who underwent Kasai portoenterostomy (KP) between 1980-96 in the UK. After KP, 111/397 (28%) demonstrated NLS until 16 years of age. At final follow-up, 67 showed NLS when >16 years old (Group 1) and 22 required LT when >16 years old (Group 2). Laboratory, clinical and radiological parameters were collected for both groups at a median age of 16.06 years (13.6-17.4 years).

RESULTS

The need for LT when >16 years old was associated with higher total bilirubin (hazard ratio 1.03, p = 0.019) and lower creatinine (hazard ratio 0.95, p = 0.040), at 16 years, on multivariate analysis. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that a total bilirubin level of ≥21 µmol/L at 16 years old (AUROC = 0.848) predicted the need for LT when >16 years old, with 85% sensitivity and 74% specificity. Cholangitis episode(s) during adolescence were associated with a 5-fold increased risk of needing LT when >16 years old. The presence of PHT or gastro-oesophageal varices in patients <16 years old was associated with a 7-fold and 8.6-fold increase in the risk of needing LT, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

BA in adulthood requires specialised management. Adult liver disease scoring models are not appropriate for this cohort. Bilirubin ≥21 µmol/L, PHT or gastro-oesophageal varices at 16 years, and cholangitis in adolescence, can predict the need for future LT in young people with BA. Low creatinine at 16 years also has potential prognostic value.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with biliary atresia commonly require liver transplantation before reaching adulthood. Those who reach adulthood with their own liver are still at risk of needing a transplant. This study aimed to identify tests that could help clinicians predict which patients with biliary atresia who reach the age of 16 without a transplant will require one in later life. The study found that the presence of bilirubin ≥21 µmol/L, lower creatinine levels, and a history of portal hypertension or gastro-oesophageal varices at 16 years, as well as cholangitis in adolescence, could predict the future likelihood of needing a liver transplant for young people with biliary atresia.

The Effects of Liver Disease on Surgical Outcomes Following Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery

BACKGROUND

As the prevalence of chronic liver disease continues to rise in the United States, understanding the effects of liver dysfunction on surgical outcomes has become increasingly important. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of chronic liver disease on 30-day complications following adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 2337 patients in the 2008-2015 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database who underwent corrective ASD surgery. Patients with liver disease were identified based on a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na score ≥10. A univariate analysis was performed to compare 30-day postoperative complications between patients with and without liver disease. A multivariate regression analysis adjusting for differences in baseline patient characteristics was performed to identify complications that were associated with liver disease.

RESULTS

Patients with liver disease had a significantly greater incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications (6.3% vs. 2.9%; P < 0.001), blood transfusion (34.6% vs. 24.0%; P < 0.001), sepsis (2.2% vs. 0.9%; P = 0.011), prolonged hospitalization (19.0% vs. 8.0%; P < 0.001), as well as any 30-day complication (45.4% vs. 29.4%; P < 0.001). The multivariate regression analysis identified liver disease as a risk factor for prolonged hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] 2.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64-2.84; P < 0.001), pulmonary complications (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.16-2.74; P = 0.009), blood transfusion (OR 1.67; 95% CI 1.36-2.05; P < 0.001), and any 30-day complication (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.15-1.77; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The multisystem pathophysiology of liver dysfunction predisposes patients to postoperative complications following ASD surgery. A multidisciplinary approach in surgical planning and preoperative optimization is needed to minimize liver disease-related complications and improve patient outcomes.

Pretransplant renal function evaluated by serum cystatin C was associated with mortality after liver transplantation: a single-center experience

Background

In the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, renal function was well thought to be associated with the prognosis of liver recipients. Serum cystatin C (CystC)-based equations were considered more accurate for calculating estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) than creatinine (Pcr) based equations. Thus, we aimed to assess the association between eGFR estimated by chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI)-CystC equation and post-transplantation mortality.

Methods

From January 2015 to January 2018, prior to liver transplantation (LT) and other clinical parameters, CystC was collected in all 307 consecutive patients who underwent LT at our center. Patients were divided into four groups according to the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) classification.

Results

Based on CKD-EPI-CystC and the KDOQI classification, 117 patients (38.1%) were stage I, 76 (24.8%) were stage II, 85 (27.7%) were stage III, and 29 (9.4%) were stage IV-V. After univariate and multivariate analysis, MELD score [hazard ratio (HR) =1.035; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.006-1.066; P=0.018], associated HCC (HR =2.314; 95% CI, 1.253-4.273; P=0.007), and KDOQI stage III (HR =1.850; 95% CI, 1.001-3.419; P=0.049), and stage IV-V (HR =3.915; 95% CI, 1.843-8.316; P<0.001) according to CKD-EPI-CystC equation were confirmed to be independent prognostic factors for post-LT survival.

Conclusions

The pretransplant renal function evaluated by serum CystC was associated with mortality after LT and could be used for predicting post-transplant survival.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol for the prediction of mortality in cirrhosis with portal vein thrombosis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Lipid profiles disorders frequently occur in patients with chronic liver diseases, and the mortality of cirrhosis complicated with portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remains high. Research identifying simple and objective prognosis indicators for cirrhotic PVT has been limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between lipid profiles and liver function, which may help predict the 1-year mortality in non-malignant cirrhosis with PVT.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 117 subjects with non-malignant cirrhotic PVT was conducted. The primary indicators of lipid profiles included triglyceride, cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Correlations of lipid profiles with liver function tests, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were investigated. The relationship between lipid profiles and 1-year mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). Logistic regression models were established to confirm the association between HDL-C and mortality.

RESULTS

The level of HDL-C was significantly decreased in non-survivors (p < 0.01) and patients with more severe liver damage stages (CTP p < 0.001; MELD p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in the HDL-C level among patients with different severities of PVT (p = 0.498). The level of HDL-C was positively correlated with albumin (p < 0.001, R = 0.438) and platelet (p = 0.022, R = 0.212) levels. The level of HDL-C was negatively correlated with bilirubin (p < 0.001, R = - 0.319), C-reactive protein (p < 0.001, R = - 0.342), the aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio (p < 0.0.1, R = - 0.237), the CTP score (p < 0.001, R = - 0.397) and the MELD score (p < 0.001, R = - 0.406). The 1-year mortality rate was 12.8%. The AUROC of HDL-C for the prediction of 1-year mortality in this population was 0.744 (p < 0.01, 95%CI 0.609-0.879). The level of HDL-C was independently associated with mortality by multivariate logistic regression models.

CONCLUSIONS

The HDL-C level significantly decreases with the deterioration of liver function, which may serve as a potential indicator for the prognosis of non-malignant cirrhotic patients with PVT.

Outcomes of pancreatoduodenectomy in the cirrhotic patient: risk stratification and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis increases the risk of perioperative mortality in gastrointestinal surgery. Though cirrhosis is sometimes considered a contraindication to pancreatoduodenectomy (PD), few data are available in this patient population. The aim of the present study is to identify predictors of outcome in cirrhotic patients undergoing PD.

METHODS

Patients undergoing PD with biopsy-proved cirrhosis were evaluated. Primary endpoints were morbidity and mortality. Child score, MELD score, and radiographic evidence of portal hypertension (pHTN) were assessed for accuracy in preoperative risk stratification. A systematic review of the literature with meta-analysis was also performed to query morbidity and mortality of patients with cirrhosis reported to undergo PD.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2015, 36 cirrhotic patients underwent PD; three year follow-up was complete. Median Child score was 6 (range 5-10); median MELD score was 9 (range 7-18). Perioperative (90-day) mortality was 6/36. Median survival was 37 months (range 0.2-116). MELD ≥ 10 was associated with increased mortality (4/13 vs. 2/13, p = 0.004). Irrespective of Child or MELD score, those with pHTN had poor outcomes including significantly greater intraoperative blood loss, increased incidence of major complication, and length of stay. Postoperative mortality was significantly higher with pHTN (3/16 vs. 1/13, p = 0.012).

CONCLUSION

Pancreatoduodenectomy may be considered in carefully selected cirrhotic patients. MELD ≥ 10 predicts increased risk of postoperative mortality. Specific attention should be afforded to patients with preoperative radiographic evidence of portal hypertension as this group experiences poor outcomes irrespective of MELD or Child score.

Establishment and evaluation of a model for predicting 3-month mortality in Chinese patients with hepatic encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of liver disease. To establish a model for predicting 3-month mortality in patients with HE in China. This retrospective study included 609 patients with HE admitted to the Peoples' Hospital, Liaocheng City, China (August 2006 to January 2016). Patients were allocated to a modeling (n = 409) or validation (n = 200) group. Demographic/clinical characteristics, laboratory test results, Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score were extracted from medical records. A model for predicting death within 3 months after admission was established using logistic regression analysis (modeling group). Model validity (validation group) was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. 270/409(66.0%) patients died in the modeling group and 142/203(70.0%) died in the validation group. Compared with survivors, patients who died had more severe HE, and higher MELD score, CTP score, incidence of complications including hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and values for laboratory parameters including red blood cell count(RBC) and total bilirubin(TBIL)(P < 0.05). Regression analysis revealed RBC, TBIL, HE stage, HRS and upper gastrointestinal bleeding as independent factors associated with death (P < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the model was 0.931.The model had a higher Youden index than MELD or CTP scores and predicted death in the validation group with a sensitivity of 83.1% and specificity of 93.4%. The established model has superior performance to MELD and CTP scores for predicting mortality in patients with HE.

Impact of sepsis and non-communicable diseases on prognostic models to predict the outcome of hospitalized chronic liver disease patients

AIM

To evaluate the impact of sepsis and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) on the outcome of decompensated chronic liver disease (CLD) patients.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, medical records of patients with CLD admitted to the Gastroenterology unit at the Aga Khan University Hospital were reviewed. Patients older than 18 years with decompensation of CLD (i.e., jaundice, ascites, encephalopathy, and/or upper gastrointestinal bleed) as the primary reason for admission were included, while those who were admitted for reasons other than decompensation of CLD were excluded. Each patient was followed for 6 wk after index admission to assess mortality, prolonged hospital stay (> 5 d), and early readmission (within 7 d).

RESULTS

A total of 399 patients were enrolled. The mean age was 54.3 ± 11.7 years and 64.6% (n = 258) were male. Six-week mortality was 13% (n = 52). Prolonged hospital stay and readmission were present in 18% (n = 72) and 7% (n = 28) of patients, respectively. NCDs were found in 47.4% (n = 189) of patients. Acute kidney injury, sepsis, and non-ST elevation myocardial infarction were found in 41% (n = 165), 17.5% (n = 70), and 1.75% (n = 7) of patients, respectively. Upon multivariate analysis, acute kidney injury, non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, sepsis, and coagulopathy were found to be statistically significant predictors of mortality. While chronic kidney disease (CKD), low albumin, and high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na score were found to be statistically significant predictors of morbidity. Addition of sepsis in conventional MELD score predicted mortality even better than MELD-Na (area under receiver operating characteristic: 0.735 vs 0.686; P < 0.001). Among NCDs, CKD was found to increase morbidity independently.

CONCLUSION

Addition of sepsis improved the predictability of MELD score as a prognostic marker for mortality in patients with CLD. Presence of CKD increases the morbidity of patients with CLD.

Presence of Sarcopenia and Its Rate of Change Are Independently Associated with Long-term Mortality in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis. However, it is not known whether the rate of skeletal muscle depletion is also associated with a poor prognosis. We investigated the prognostic impact of the rate of skeletal muscle depletion in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

We included retrospectively all patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent both multiple computed tomography scans and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurements.

RESULTS

A total of 131 patients with liver cirrhosis were enrolled. The mean age of the patients was 53.7 years and alcoholic liver disease was the most common cause (61.8%). Sixty-four patients (48.9%) were diagnosed with sarcopenia. The median changes in skeletal muscle area per year (ΔSMA/y) were -0.89%. During a median follow-up period of 46.2 months (range, 3.4-87.6), 45 patients (34.4%) died. In multivariate analyses, age, Child-Pugh score, HVPG, presence of sarcopenia and ΔSMA/y were independently associated with mortality. Cumulative mortality was significantly higher in patients with ΔSMA/y < -2.4% than those with ΔSMA/y ≥ -2.4% (log-rank test, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Both the presence and rate of change of sarcopenia are independently associated with long-term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis.

External validation and improvement of LiFe score as a prediction tool in critically ill cirrhosis patients

AIM

The LiFe (liver, injury, failure, evaluation) score, calculated according to arterial lactate, total bilirubin, and international normalized ratio (INR), is a novel score for risk prediction in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with cirrhosis. The present study aimed to externally validate and optimize the LiFe score for predicting outcomes in critically ill cirrhosis patients.

METHODS

The study used the single-center database Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) for analysis. A total of 536 critically ill cirrhosis patients from the MIMIC-III database were analyzed. Routine clinical and laboratory variables were included to compare survivors with non-survivors. The LiFe score was then regraded into three groups to calculate the optimal cut-off values.

RESULTS

In-ICU mortality occurred in 169 (31.5%) of the patients. Survivor and non-survivor cohorts were similar in age, gender, and etiology of cirrhosis. Multivariate analyses of in-ICU mortality identified four independent variables: total bilirubin, creatinine, INR, and arterial lactate. An external validation of the LiFe score showed good accuracy for predicting in-ICU mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.708. In addition, a significant positive correlation exists between LiFe score and acute-on-chronic liver failure grade (r = 0.393, P < 0.001). A log-rank test comparing the strata of simplified LiFe scores found that in-ICU mortality rates were 16.8%, 27.7%, and 51.7%, respectively, among patients in the three simplified risk categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The LiFe score, based on laboratory tests, can be useful as a preliminary and convenient scoring tool in a broad cohort of critically ill cirrhosis patients. Simplified risk categories to stratify patients into three groups improves its feasibility and generalizability for clinical application.

Survival prediction among patients with non-cancer-related end-stage liver disease

Background

Predicting the survival of non-cancer related end-stage-liver-disease patients in general practice has been difficult for physicians because of the extremely variable trajectories due to multiple complex clinical factors, hence it remains a challenging issue to date. This study aimed to develop and validate a specific prognostic scoring system to early recognize the prognosis and improve the quality of end-of life care for non-cancer end-stage-liver-disease population.

Materials and methods

A multicentre, retrospective cohort study was conducted during January 2010 ~ December 2012 and continued follow-up until December 2014. A cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to derive and validate an optimized model. The main outcome measures were the 28-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month mortality prediction. The performance of the novel model was evaluated, including discrimination and calibration.

Results

A total of 4,080 consecutive subjects were enrolled. The AUROCs for the 3-month survival discrimination in the MELD, MELD-Na and novel model were 0.787, 0.705 and 0.804 (P<0.001); the 6-month survival discrimination were 0.781, 0.702 and 0.797 (P<0.001); the overall survival discrimination were 0.771, 0.694 and 0.785 (P = 0.002) respectively, whereas the novel model showed a significantly higher discrimination power than did the MELD and MELD-Na for the 3-month, 6-month and overall survival prediction. In addition, calibration of external validation cohort showed no statistical difference in all 5 groups compared with the observed groups.

Conclusion

This is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the prognosis in non-cancer cirrhotic populations, which may help the patients along with medical team in decision making to improve the quality of end-of-life care.

Steroid-Mediated Decrease in Blood Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Liver Transplant could Impact Long-Term Recovery

Orthotopic liver transplant (OLT) remains the standard of care for end stage liver disease. To circumvent allo-rejection, OLT subjects receive gluococorticoids (GC). We investigated the effects of GC on endogenous mesenchymal stem (stromal) cells (MSCs) in OLT. This question is relevant because MSCs have regenerative potential and immune suppressor function. Phenotypic analyses of blood samples from 12 OLT recipients, at pre-anhepatic, anhepatic and post-transplant (2 h, Days 1 and 5) indicated a significant decrease in MSCs after GC injection. The MSCs showed better recovery in the blood from subjects who started with relatively low MSCs as compared to those with high levels at the prehepatic phase. This drop in MSCs appeared to be linked to GC since similar change was not observed in liver resection subjects. In order to understand the effects of GC on decrease MSC migration, in vitro studies were performed in transwell cultures. Untreated MSCs could not migrate towards the GC-exposed liver tissue, despite CXCR4 expression and the production of inflammatory cytokines from the liver cells. GC-treated MSCs were inefficient with respect to migration towards CXCL12, and this correlated with retracted cytoskeleton and motility. These dysfunctions were partly explained by decreases in the CXCL12/receptor axis. GC-associated decrease in MSCs in OLT recipients recovered post-transplant, despite poor migratory ability towards GC-exposed liver. In total, the study indicated that GC usage in transplant needs to be examined to determine if this could be reduced or avoided with adjuvant cell therapy.

MicroRNA profiles in serum samples from patients with stable cirrhosis and miRNA-21 as a predictor of transplant-free survival

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have remarkable potential as diagnostic and prognostic markers because of their roles in disease pathogenesis. miRNAs can be released into the bloodstream, where they are sufficiently stable to be detected noninvasively. Here, we prospectively evaluated serum levels of miR-21, miR-34a, miR-122, miR-181b, and miR-885-5p in patients with stable cirrhosis. Total RNA was extracted from the sera of patients with cirrhosis and healthy individuals, and the expression levels of the target miRNAs were analyzed by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Serum miRNAs levels were correlated with liver function parameters, etiology, and complications of cirrhosis. Circulating miR-34a, miR-122, and miR-885-5p levels were higher in patients with cirrhosis than in healthy individuals. These miRNAs were positively correlated with alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase levels, and the relative expression levels were higher in hepatitis C virus-infected patients and lower in patients with Child-Pugh C cirrhosis. miR-122 and miR-885-5p levels were also positively correlated with γ-glutamyl transpeptidase concentrations. miR-21 was associated with transplant-free survival in univariate Cox regression analysis and remained independently associated with survival after adjustment for age, Child-Pugh classification, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, and history of previous decompensation in multivariate Cox regression analysis. These data suggested that miR-34a, miR-122, and miR-885-5p levels may be more related to the inflammatory process and ongoing hepatocyte damage in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, miR-21 levels were independently associated with shorter transplant-free survival and may be used as a prognostic tool in outpatients with stable cirrhosis.

Treatment outcomes of patients with spinal metastases derived from hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) used to be poor, but it has recently improved, which has meant that clinicians have greater opportunity to treat spinal metastases and the associated epidural spinal cord compression. However, there have been few systematic functional studies about HCC-derived spinal metastases. The treatment outcomes of surgical treatment for HCC-derived metastatic spinal tumors were investigated.

METHODS

The post-treatment survival period and pain, paralysis, and disturbance of activities of daily living (ADL) were investigated in 60 patients (surgery 25, conservative treatment 35).

RESULTS

The mean post-treatment survival period was 7.4 ± 8.2 months (range 0.3-36 months). Univariate analysis indicated that the following factors influenced survival: the patient's general condition, presence/absence of major internal organ metastasis, serum albumin level, Child-Pugh classification, surgical treatment for spinal metastasis, and bone-modifying agent treatment. In the multivariate analysis of these 6 items, 3 significant factors were extracted: the patient's general condition, the serum albumin level, and bone-modifying agent treatment. Pain significantly improved in both groups (p < 0.001). Paralysis did not change significantly in the surgical group (p = 0.575), but it was significantly aggravated in the conservative treatment group (p = 0.047). The ADL abilities of the surgical group improved significantly (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Most patients exhibited poor survival. In the conservative treatment group, paralysis was significantly aggravated, and little improvement was seen in the patients' ADL abilities. In the surgical group, the patients' ADL abilities improved significantly, but their paralysis did not. Therefore, surgery should be actively performed for HCC-derived spinal metastasis whenever it is indicated.

Hepatorenal syndrome: the clinical impact of vasoactive therapy

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a unique form of acute kidney injury seen in cirrhotic patients and associated with significant mortality and morbidity. Despite its impact, diagnosis and treatment of HRS remains challenging and this review aims to assess and compare the available vasoconstrictors used as first-line treatment for HRS. Areas covered: A literature review was undertaken on the use of vasoconstrictors in HRS, using PubMed/Medline database searches of: 'hepatorenal syndrome', 'HRS' and 'vasoconstrictor'. Expert commentary: Current diagnosis criteria are based on an exclusion-based approach using serum creatinine as a biomarker. However, this method relies on the measurement over a sustained period of time resulting in delayed treatment. Using urine biomarkers, the revised acute kidney injury guidelines and novel plasma expanders may improve diagnosis and the implementation of time-sensitive management of HRS. Vasoconstrictors are the first-line treatment for HRS, in which terlipressin is the vasoconstrictor of choice supported by current guidelines and a substantial clinical evidence base over other vasoconstrictors, such as noradrenaline or midodrine plus octreotide. Future developments in dosage and administrative techniques for terlipressin may have an important role to play in maintaining clinical efficacy whilst improving tolerability in the management of HRS.

Effectiveness of the MELD/Na Score and the Child-Pugh Score for the Identification of Palliative Care Needs in Patients with Cirrhosis of the Liver

Objective:

Identification of palliative care needs in patients with liver cirrhosis using the MELD/Na score and the Child–Pugh score.

Materials and Methods:

A retrospective study of hospitalized patients with hepatic cirrhosis between January 2015 and December 2016 using the Child–Pugh score and the MELD/Na score in January 2018.

Results:

Recognizing end-of-life patients (the past 12 months of life) is a challenge for health professionals, especially in diseases with poorly defined criteria, such as cirrhosis of the liver. The verification of rapid functional decline and health indicators can be verified using already defined scales such as the Child–Pugh score and the MELD/Na score. Patients were classified according to the Child–Pugh score in Class A (17%), Class B (48.9%), and Class C (34%). The corresponding survival rate was as follows: class A (87.5%), Class B (30.4%), and Class C (31.25%). The MELD/Na score intervals were >9 (2.15%), score 10–19 (46.8%), score 20–29 (27.7%), score 30–40 (19.1%), and score >40 (4.3%). Nearly 51.1% had a MELD/Na score >20 and 48.9% <20. The study revealed that 59.6% of patients died before 12 months. They were end-of-life patients who needed palliative care to reduce the impact of the disease.

Conclusions:

The Child–Pugh score and the MELD/Na score represent a viable and easy-to-use tool to identify patients in need of palliative care, among those with liver cirrhosis. Early identification, timely evaluation, and effective treatment of physical, spiritual, family, and social problems improve the quality of life of people with incurable diseases and their families.