Acute-on-chronic liver failure as a major predictive factor for mortality in patients with variceal bleeding

New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH.

METHODS

We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model.

RESULTS

Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively).

CONCLUSION

There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation.

TRIAL REGESTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Causes, Clinical Parameters, and Predictors of Mortality

Objectives This study aimed to identify the causes, clinical characteristics, and 28-day in-hospital mortality predictors in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods A cross-sectional study enrolled sixty-four patients aged 18-70 years with acute-on-chronic liver failure. The study was conducted at the Gastroenterology Department, Lahore General Hospital. The study classified ACLF according to the criteria of the European Association for the Study of the Liver - Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF). Patients were followed for 28 days for mortality outcomes. The outcomes between Survivor and Non-survivor groups were compared using the Chi-Square/Fisher's Exact Test for categorical variables and the Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. Results In this study, age and duration of chronic liver disease were not significantly different between survivors and non-survivors. The etiology of liver disease and ACLF causes had no impact on 28-day mortality. Non-survivors had lower mean arterial pressure, and higher mortality was linked with lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and Grade IV hepatic encephalopathy. Significant differences in bilirubin, serum creatinine, urea, and C-reactive protein levels were observed at 28 days. Survival rates were highest with single organ failure (35.94%) and decreased with multiple organ failures. The overall survival rate was 51.56%. Predictive validity for mortality was assessed using the Area Under the Curve (AUC), with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) at 0.679, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) at 0.819, and Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) at 0.771. Conclusion This study concludes that in acute-on-chronic liver failure, factors like age, gender, and disease etiology do not significantly predict 28-day mortality. Key mortality indicators include clinical parameters such as lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores, hepatic encephalopathy Grade IV, and laboratory findings like elevated bilirubin and serum creatinine. The MELD score is the most compelling prognostic tool.

Challenges in Diagnosis and Therapeutic Approach of Acute on Chronic Liver Failure-A Review of Current Evidence

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by acute and severe decompensation of chronic liver disease (CLD) correlated with multiple organ failure, poor prognosis, and increased mortality. In 40-50% of ACLF cases, the trigger is not recognized; for many of these patients, bacterial translocation associated with systemic inflammation is thought to be the determining factor; in the other 50% of patients, sepsis, alcohol consumption, and reactivation of chronic viral hepatitis are the most frequently described trigger factors. Other conditions considered precipitating factors are less common, including acute alcoholic hepatitis, major surgery, TIPS insertion, or inadequate paracentesis without albumin substitution. Host response is likely the primary factor predicting ACLF severity and prognosis, the host immune response having a particular significance in this syndrome, together with the inflammatory cascade. The management of ACLF includes both the prevention of the precipitating factors that lead to acute liver decompensation and the support of vital functions, the prevention and management of complications, the estimation of prognosis, and the opportunity for liver transplantation.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is independently associated with higher mortality for cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage: Retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage (AEVH) is a common complication of cirrhosis and might precipitate multi-organ failure, causing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

AIM

To analyze if the presence and grading of ACLF as defined by European Society for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) is able to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients presenting AEVH.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study executed in Hospital Geral de Caxias do Sul. Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital electronic database for patients who received terlipressin. Medical records were reviewed in order to determine the diagnosis of cirrhosis and AEVH, including 97 patients. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for univariate analysis and a stepwise approach to the Cox regression for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

All- cause mortality for AEVH patients was 36%, 40.2% and 49.4% for 30-, 90- and 365-day, respectively. The prevalence of ACLF was 41.3%. Of these, 35% grade 1, 50% grade 2 and 15% grade 3. In multivariate analysis, the non-use of non-selective beta-blockers, presence and higher grading of ACLF and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were independently associated with higher mortality for 30-day with the addition of higher Child-Pugh scores for 90-day period.

CONCLUSION

Presence and grading of ACLF according to the EASL-CLIF criteria was independently associated with higher 30- and 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted due to AEVH.

Risk stratification based on acute-on-chronic liver failure in cirrhotic patients hospitalized for acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, multiple organ failures and high short-term mortality. This study aimed to evaluate the role of ACLF in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients with AVB.

METHODS

Prospective data of 335 cirrhotic patients hospitalized for AVB were retrospectively extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. ACLF was defined by European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure Consortium and diagnosed/graded with chronic liver failure-organ failure (CLIF-OF) score. Cox-proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors for 6-week morality in AVB patients. Discrimination and calibration of prognostic scores were evaluated by plotting the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, respectively. Overall performance was assessed by calculating the Brier score and R² value.

RESULTS

A total of 181 (54.0%) patients were diagnosed with ACLF (grade 1: 18.2%, grade 2: 33.7%, grade 3: 48.1%) at admission. The 6-week mortality in patients with ACLF was significantly higher than that in patients without ACLF (43.6% vs. 8.4%, P < 0.001) and increased in line with the severity of ACLF (22.5%, 34.2% and 63.8% for ACLF grade 1, 2 and 3, P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, presence of ACLF remained as an independent risk factor for 6-week mortality after adjusting for confounding factors (HR = 2.12, P = 0.03). The discrimination, calibration and overall performance of CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD were superior to the traditional prognostic scores (CTP, MELD and MELD-Na) in the prediction of 6-week mortality of patients with and without ACLF, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients with AVB is poor when accompanied by ACLF. ACLF at admission is an independent predictor for the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with AVB. CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD are the best prognostic scores in AVB patients with and without ACLF, respectively, and can be used for the risk stratification of these two distinct entities.

To TIPS or Not to TIPS in High Risk of Variceal Rebleeding and Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Variceal bleeding is a consequence of severe portal hypertension in patients with liver cirrhosis. Although the rate of bleeding has decreased over time, variceal bleeding in the presence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high risk of treatment failure and short-term mortality. Treatment and/or removal of precipitating events (mainly bacterial infection and alcoholic hepatitis) and decrease of portal pressure may improve outcome of patients with acute decompensation or ACLF. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPSs), especially in the preemptive situation, have been found to efficiently control bleeding, prevent rebleeding, and reduce short-term mortality. Therefore, TIPS placement should be considered as an option in the management of ACLF patients with variceal bleeding.

Diagnosis and Management of Esophagogastric Varices

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a potentially fatal complication of clinically significant portal hypertension and is one of the most common causes of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Thus, esophagogastric varices represent a major economic and population health issue. Patients with advanced chronic liver disease typically undergo an upper endoscopy to screen for esophagogastric varices. However, upper endoscopy is not recommended for patients with liver stiffness < 20 KPa and platelet count > 150 × 10⁹/L as there is a low probability of high-risk varices. Patients with high-risk varices should receive primary prophylaxis with either nonselective beta-blockers or endoscopic band ligation. In cases of AVB, patients should receive upper endoscopy within 12 h after resuscitation and hemodynamic stability, whereas endoscopy should be performed as soon as possible if patients are unstable. In cases of suspected variceal bleeding, starting vasoactive therapy as soon as possible in combination with endoscopic treatment is recommended. On the other hand, in cases of uncontrolled bleeding, balloon tamponade or self-expandable metal stents can be used as a bridge to more definitive therapy such as transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. This article aims to offer a comprehensive review of recommendations from international guidelines as well as recent updates on the management of esophagogastric varices.

Development and validation of a practical prognostic nomogram for evaluating inpatient mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) have high short-term mortality. Established prognostic scores are seldom applicable clinically, partially because they need external validation or contain subjective variables. We aimed to develop and validate a practical prognostic nomogram based on objective predictors to predict prognosis for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 308 AVH patients with cirrhosis from our center as the derivation cohort to develop a new nomogram using logistic regression and validated it in cohorts of patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III (n = 247) and IV (n = 302).

RESULTS

International normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were identified as predictors for inpatient mortality and a nomogram was constructed based on them. The nomogram discriminated well in both derivation and MIMIC-III/-IV validation cohorts with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.846 and 0.859/0.833, respectively and showed a better agreement between expected and observed outcomes (Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, all comparisons, P > 0.05) than other scores in all cohorts. Our nomogram had the lowest Brier scores (0.082/0.114/0.119 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) and highest R² (0.367/0.393/0.346 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) compared to the recalibrated model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-hepatic encephalopathy (MELD-HE) and cirrhosis acute gastrointestinal bleeding (CAGIB) scores in all cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a practical prognostic nomogram using easily verified indicators available in initial patient evaluation, which may serve as a reliable tool to accurately predict inpatient mortality for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

External validation of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a serious life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. This study aimed to validate the predictive value of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with AVB.

METHODS

A total of 235 cirrhotic patients with AVB and without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) were retrospectively enrolled. The discrimination, calibration, overall performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD were evaluated and compared with traditional prognostic scores.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of CLIF-C AD was significantly or numerically higher than that of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (0.871 vs. 0.737, P  = 0.03), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) (0.871 vs. 0.757, P  = 0.1) and MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na) (0.871 vs. 0.822, P  = 0.45). The calibration of CLIF-C AD was excellent and superior to that of CTP, MELD and MELD-Na. The brier score/ R2 value for CLIF-C AD, CTP, MELD and MELD-Na were 0.045/0.278, 0.051/0.090, 0.050/0.123 and 0.046/0.207, respectively, suggesting a superior overall performance of CLIF-C AD to traditional scores. In decision curve analysis, the standardized net benefit of CLIF-C AD was higher to that of traditional scores. Patients with CLIF-C ADs ≤48, 49-59 and ≥60 were, respectively, stratified into low, moderate and high-risk groups (6-week mortality: 2.7% vs. 12.5% vs. 37.5%, P  < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The prediction performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD for 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with AVB and without ACLF are excellent and superior to traditional prognostic scores. The new risk stratification with CLIF-C ADs may be useful in guiding rational management of AVB.

CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C scores for the prognostication of acute-on-chronic liver failure and acute decompensation of cirrhosis: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by decompensation in individuals with chronic liver disease, generally secondary to one or more extra-hepatic organ failures, implying an elevated mortality rate. Acute decompensation (AD) is the term used for one or more significant consequences of liver disease in a short time and is the most common reason for hospital admission in cirrhotic patients. The European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic-Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Group modified the intensive care Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score into CLIF-SOFA, which detects the presence of ACLF in patients with or without AD, classifying it into three grades.

AIM

To investigate the role of the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF and the ability of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores for prognosticating ACLF or AD.

METHODS

This study is a literature review using a standardized search method, conducted using the steps following the guidelines for reporting systematic reviews set out by the PRISMA statement. For specific keywords, relevant articles were found by searching PubMed, ScienceDirect, and BioMed Central-BMC. The databases were searched using the search terms by one reviewer, and a list of potentially eligible studies was generated based on the titles and abstracts screened. The data were then extracted and assessed on the basis of the Reference Citation Analysis (https://www.referencecitationanalysis.com/).

RESULTS

Most of the included studies used the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF to identify cirrhotic patients with a significant risk of short-term mortality. The primary outcome in all reviewed studies was mortality. Most of the study findings were based on an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, which revealed that CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores were preferable to other models predicting 28-d mortality. Their AUROC scores were higher and able to predict all-cause mortality at 90, 180, and 365 d. A total of 50 articles were included in this study, which found that the CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores in more than half of the articles were able to predict short-term and long-term mortality in patients with either ACLF or AD.

CONCLUSION

CLIF-SOFA score surpasses other models in predicting mortality in ACLF patients, especially in the short-term. CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD are accurate short-term and long-term mortality prognosticating scores.

New Evidence of Oral Branched-Chain Amino Acid Supplementation on the Prognosis of Patients With Advanced Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

Oral branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) might benefit patients with advanced liver disease. We assess its effects on prognosis compared with control from the meta-analysis.

METHODS

Study end points were development of hepatic encephalopathy (HE), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), mortality, and overall liver-related events (LREs). Risk ratios (RRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using random effects model and heterogeneity using I 2 statistic.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight studies were included in this meta-analysis; 1,578 and 1,727 patients in oral BCAAs and control groups, respectively. From studies using RRs as outcome measures, oral BCAAs were better in preventing HE and LRE than controls, with RRs 0.684 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.497-0.941; P = 0.019) and 0.788 (95% CI 0.585-0.810; P < 0.001), respectively. Oral BCAAs had marginal effect on preventing HCC compared with control, with RR 0.791 (95% CI 0.619-1.011; P = 0.061); no significant difference in mortality was detected. From studies using HRs as outcome measures, oral BCAAs were superior to control in preventing LRE with adjusted HR 0.497 (95% CI 0.321-0.770; P = 0.002). In subgroups undergoing HCC resection, oral BCAAs had beneficial effect in preventing HE (RR 0.716, 95% CI 0.514-0.996; P = 0.047) and LRE (RR 0.716, 95% CI 0.595-0.860; P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

Oral BCAAs could afford clinical benefits in reducing HE and LRE risks, especially among patients undergoing HCC resection.

Validation of prognostic scores predicting mortality in acute liver decompensation or acute-on-chronic liver failure: A Thailand multicenter study

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

Cirrhosis patients with worsening of the liver function are defined as acute decompensation (AD) and those who develop extrahepatic organ failure are defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Both AD and ACLF have an extremely poor prognosis. However, information regarding prognostic predictors is still lacking in Asian populations. We aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day and 90-day mortality in cirrhosis patients who develop AD with or without ACLF.

METHODS

We included 9 tertiary hospitals from Thailand in a retrospective observational study enrolling hospitalized cirrhosis patients with AD. ACLF was diagnosed according to the EASL-CLIF criteria, which defined as AD patients who have kidney failure or a combination of at least two non-kidney organ failure. Outcomes were clinical parameters and prognostic scores associated with mortality evaluated at 30 days and 90 days.

RESULTS

Between 2015 and 2020, 602 patients (301 for each group) were included. The 30-day and 90-day mortality rates of ACLF vs. AD were 57.48% vs. 25.50% (p<0.001) and 67.44% vs. 32.78% (p<0.001), respectively. For ACLF patients, logistic regression analysis adjusted for demographic data, and clinical information showed that increasing creatinine was a predictor for 30-day mortality (p = 0.038), while the CLIF-C OF score predicted both 30-day (p = 0.018) and 90-day (p = 0.037) mortalities, achieving the best discriminatory power with AUROCs of 0.705 and 0.709, respectively. For AD patients, none of the parameters was found to be significantly associated with 30-day mortality, while bacterial infection, CLIF-AD score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score were independent parameters associated with 90-day mortality, with p values of 0.041, 0.024 and 0.024. However, their predictive performance became nonsignificant after adjustment by multivariate regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Regarding Thai patients, the CLIF-C OF score was the best predictor for 30-day and 90-day mortalities in ACLF patients, while appropriate prognostic factors for AD patients remained inconclusive.

Humoral Immunogenicity to SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Liver Transplant Recipients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Solid organ transplant recipients generally show reduced immunogenicity to various vaccines. We aimed to assess the immunogenicity of the immune response among orthotopic liver transplant (OLT) recipients after the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination. A systematic search was performed to evaluate immunogenicity or adverse events reported after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. The pooled analysis of 20 studies showed a humoral immune response rate of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.77) after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among OLT recipients. The immunogenicity among OLT recipients was significantly lower compared to the overall population and healthy controls, with odds ratios (ORs) of 0.80 and 0.69. However, it was significantly higher than that of patients receiving other organ transplants, especially kidneys, with an OR of 1.50. Male sex, old age, chronic kidney disease, obesity, and multiple or high immunosuppressant doses significantly increased the risk of unresponsiveness in patients with OLT. The overall incidence of any adverse event after vaccination was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.55-0.81), similar to that of control. OLT recipients had an overall humoral immune response rate of 70% after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, which is lower than that of healthy controls but favourable compared to those of other solid organ transplant recipients.

Impact of colonization with multidrug-resistant organisms on antibiotic prophylaxis in patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding

Background

The efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent rebleeding or infection after variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis colonized with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) is unknown.

Methods

In this retrospective study, patients with liver cirrhosis and endoscopically confirmed variceal bleeding who were treated at a tertiary care center in Germany and were screened for MDROs at the time of bleeding were eligible for inclusion. Efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis was evaluated in patients stratified according to microbiological susceptibility testing.

Results

From 97 patients, the majority had decompensated liver cirrhosis (median MELD Score 17) and ACLF was present in half of the patients (47.4%). One third of patients were colonized with MDRO at baseline. De-novo infection until day 10 or the combination of de-novo infection or rebleeding were comparable among both groups (p = 0.696 and p = 0.928, log-rank-test). Risk of de-novo infection or rebleeding was not significantly increased in patients who received antibiotic prophylaxis that did not cover the MDRO found upon baseline screening. Acute-on-chronic liver failure at baseline was the strongest and only independent risk factor that was associated with both outcomes (OR 5.52, 95%-CI 1.48–20.61, p = 0.011 and OR 11.5, 95%-CI 2.70–48.62, p<0.001). Neither MDRO colonization at baseline nor covering all detected MDRO with antibiotic prophylaxis (i.e. “adequate” prophylaxis) impacted transplant-free survival. Again, the presence of ACLF was the strongest independent risk factor associated with mortality (OR 9.85, 95%-CI 3.58–27.12, p<0.0001).

Conclusion

In this study, MDRO colonization did not increase the risk of rebleeding, infections nor death, even if antibiotic prophylaxis administered did not cover all MDRO detected at MDRO screening. Patients with ACLF had an increased risk of bleeding, infections and death.

Reappraisal of Sepsis-3 and CLIF-SOFA or Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis and Infection Presenting to the Emergency Department: A Multicenter Study

Background/Aims

Sepsis-3 criteria and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) have been advocated to be used in defining sepsis in the general population. We aimed to compare the Sepsis-3 criteria and Chronic Liver Failure-SOFA (CLIF-SOFA) scores as predictors of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) for infections.

Methods

A total of 1,622 cirrhosis patients admitted at the ED for infections were assessed retrospectively. We analyzed their demographic, laboratory, and microbiological data upon diagnosis of the infection. The primary endpoint was inhospital mortality rate. The predictive performances of baseline CLIF-SOFA, Sepsis-3, and qSOFA scores for in-hospital mortality were evaluated.

Results

The CLIF-SOFA score proved to be significantly better in predicting in-hospital mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78–0.82) than the Sepsis-3 (AUROC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.72–0.77, P<0.001) and qSOFA (AUROC, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.64–0.70; P<0.001) score. The CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C-AD scores, Sepsis-3 criteria, septic shock, and qSOFA positivity were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.24; 95% CI, 1.19–1.28; aHR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.09–1.17; aHR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15–1.24; aHR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.42–2.48; aHR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.55–2.72; respectively; all P<0.001). For CLIF-SOFA scores ≥6, in-hospital mortality was >10%; this is the cutoff point for the definition of sepsis.

Conclusions

Among cirrhosis patients presenting with infections at the ED, CLIF-SOFA scores showed a better predictive performance for mortality than both Sepsis-3 criteria and qSOFA scores, and can be a useful tool of risk stratification in cirrhotic patients requiring timely intervention for infection.

Validation of PH and Varices Risk Scores for Prediction of High-Risk Esophageal Varix and Bleeding in Patients with B-Viral Cirrhosis

Esophageal varices (EVs) can be accurately predicted using PH and varices risk scores. We aimed to validate their prognostic performances. Methods: We enrolled patients with B-viral cirrhosis as the training cohort (n = 503). Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for HEV were calculated for PH (=−5.953 + 0.188 × liver stiffness (LS) + 1.583 × sex (1:male/0:female) + 26.705 × spleen diameter/platelet count ratio) and varices (=−4.364 + 0.538 × spleen diameter −0.049 × platelet count −0.044 × LS + 0.001 × LS × platelet count) risk scores, and compared to LSPS (=LS × spleen diameter/platelet count). An independent cohort was recruited for further validation (n = 222). In the training cohort, the varices risk score showed the highest AUROC (0.926), followed by the PH risk score (0.924) and LSPS (0.924), but without any statistically significant differences. For varices risk scores ≤−1.70 and ≥1.48, a 95.0% negative predictive value (NPV) and 91.2% positive predictive value (PPV) were observed, respectively. At PH risk scores ≤2.25 and ≥7.71, 95.0% NPV and 90.0% PPV were observed, respectively. At LSPS ≤1.73 and ≥13.9, 95.3% NPV and 95.0% PPV were observed, respectively. The EV bleeding (EVB) risk during follow-up increased stepwise and significantly when stratified by PH, varices risk scores, and LSPS (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, NPVs were generally similar when stratified by PH (88.2%), varices risk scores (93.2%), and LSPS (88.9%); however, corresponding PPVs were suboptimal. PH and variceal risk scores are reliable for predicting HEV and future EVB. Patients with PH and varices risk scores ≤2.25 and ≤−1.70, respectively, may avoid endoscopy safely. For convenience, LSPS might be a good alternative, with comparable prognostic performance to these two models.

Effect of tenofovir alafenamide vs. tenofovir disoproxil fumarate on hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B

It is unclear whether tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) or tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is more effective for preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In this study, we compared the effectiveness of these two antiviral agents for preventing HCC. We included treatment-naïve CHB patients undergoing antiviral therapy with TDF only (TDF group) or a TAF-based regimen (TAF group) at three academic teaching hospitals from 2012 to 2019. The TAF group included patients receiving TAF as first-line treatment and patients switching from TDF to TAF. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at enrollment were excluded. Cumulative probabilities of HCC were assessed using Kaplan-Meier methodology. In total, 2,117 patients were included: 1,832 in the TDF group and 285 in the TAF group. The annual HCC incidence was not significantly different between TDF and TAF groups: 1.66 vs. 1.19 per 100 person-years [PY], respectively (multivariate analysis: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.774 [reference: TDF group]; p = .438). Male, liver cirrhosis, hepatitis B e antigen negativity, Fibrosis-4 index>3.25 and low albumin were independently associated with a higher risk of HCC. Propensity score-matched and inverse probability of treatment weighting analyses yielded similar results: 1.56 vs. 1.19 per 100 PY, respectively (HR 1.175; p = .708) and 1.66 vs. 1.29 per 100 PY, respectively (HR 0.888; p = .446). The risk of HCC development was not significantly different between TDF and TAF groups of CHB patients. Further studies with a larger sample size and longer follow-up are required to validate our results.

β-blockers in advanced cirrhosis: More friend than enemy

Nonselective beta-adrenergic blocker (NSBB) therapy for the prevention of initial and recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal varices has been used for the past four decades. NSBB therapy is considered the cornerstone of treatment for varices, and has become the standard of care. However, a 2010 study from the group that pioneered β-blocker therapy suggested a detrimental effect of NSBBs in decompensated cirrhosis, especially in patients with refractory ascites. Since then, numerous additional studies have incompletely resolved whether NSBBs are deleterious, although more recent evidence weighs against a harmful effect. The possibility of a "therapeutic window" has also been raised. We aimed to review the literature to analyze the pros and cons of using NSBBs in patients with cirrhosis, not only with respect to bleeding or mortality but also to other potential benefits and risks. β-blockers are highly effective in preventing first bleeding and recurrent bleeding. Furthermore, NSBBs improve congestion/ischemia of the gut mucosa, decrease intestinal permeability, and therefore indirectly alleviate systemic inflammation. β-blockers shorten the electrocardiographic prolonged QTc interval and may also decrease the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma. On the other hand, the possibility of deleterious effects in cirrhosis has not been completely eliminated. NSBBs may be associated with an increased risk of portal vein thrombosis, although this could be correlational artifact. Overall, we conclude that β-blockers in cirrhosis are much more of a friend than enemy.

External validation of CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores for Asian chronic hepatitis B patients with well-controlled viremia by antivirals

CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores, consisting of age and fibrotic burden as cirrhosis and/or liver stiffness, were recently proposed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk among Caucasian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients undergoing long-term antiviral therapy. We externally validated their predictive performances among an independent cohort from Asia, compared to other conventional prediction models. We consecutively recruited CHB patients with well-controlled viremia (serum HBV DNA < 2000 IU/mL) receiving antiviral therapy. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at baseline were excluded. Among 1763 patients, CAGE-B score provided the highest Heagerty's integrated area under the curve (iAUC) (0.820), followed by SAGE-B (0.804), mREACH-B (0.800), CAMD (0.786), mPAGE-B (0.748) and PAGE-B (0.721) scores. CAGE-B score showed a significantly better performance than SAGE-B, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores, but was similar to mREACH-B. SAGE-B score also showed significantly better performance than mPAGE-B and PAGE-B, but was similar to CAMD and mREACH-B. According to CAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, the annual HCC incidences were 0.18, 1.34 and 6.03 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Likewise, by SAGE-B score 0-5, 6-10 and ≥11, those were 0.31, 1.49 and 8.96 per 100 person-years, respectively (all p < 0.001 between each pair). Hence, CAGE-B and SAGE-B scores showed acceptable predictive performances for Asian CHB patients undergoing antiviral therapy, with the higher performance by CAGE-B score. They show a trend towards better prognostic capability to predict HCC risk than previous models.

Treatment efficacy by hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy vs. sorafenib after liver-directed concurrent chemoradiotherapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We compared the clinical efficacies of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) vs. sorafenib as sequential maintenance therapy following liver-directed concurrent chemoradiotherapy (LD-CCRT) for locally advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Patients undergoing HAIC with 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin (HAIC-maintain group, n = 151) or sorafenib (Sorafenib-maintain group, n = 37) after LD-CCRT were consecutively enrolled. The study endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and treatment response rates.

RESULTS

The median OS among HAIC-maintain and Sorafenib-maintain groups were 15.9 and 24.3 months (p = 0.287), whereas the median PFS were 8.1 and 9.1 months (p = 0.651), respectively. During the planned treatments, the radiological objective response rate (54.3% vs. 64.9%; p = 0.246), and conversion rate to surgical resection or liver transplantation after successful down-staging (15.9% vs. 18.9%; p = 0.657) were comparable between the HAIC-maintain and Sorafenib-maintain groups. Similar results were found after the inverse probability of treatment weighting and propensity score-matching analyses. Regarding treatment-related adverse events, the HAIC-maintain group showed worse profiles in terms of leukopenia (all grades [p = 0.001] and grades 3 or 4 [p = 0.041]) and hypoalbuminemia (p = 0.001) than the Sorafenib-maintain group.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall clinical efficacies between the sequential treatment of HAIC vs. sorafenib after LD-CCRT were comparable for locally advanced HCC.