Establishment and Validation of a Multivariate Predictive Scoring Model for Intravenous Immunoglobulin-Resistant Kawasaki Disease: A Study of Children From Two Centers in China

A preliminary study on the association between prognostic nutritional index and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio with nutritional status and inflammation in febrile children's susceptibility to seizures

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between nutritional status, inflammation, and susceptibility to seizures in febrile children.

METHODS

This observational single-center study was carried out from January 2020 to December 2023 with 324 children aged 6 months and 6 years; 106 were diagnosed with febrile seizure, 108 were febrile children, and 110 were healthy controls. The prognostic nutritional index and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were calculated, and the cutoff threshold was established through receiver operating characteristics. The study utilized correlation and univariate-multivariate logistic regression analysis. The comparison between simple and complex febrile seizure was conducted to analyze differences.

RESULTS

The optimal cutoff values were identified as 61.25 for prognostic nutritional index and 1.04 for neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Our findings showed a significant negative association between febrile seizure and platelet count, high C-reactive protein, and high ferritin levels. Additionally, the febrile seizure group showed a significant positive correlation with high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio values (≥1.04) and body temperature (≥38). Our findings revealed that high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, high C-reactive protein, and age less than 18 months were independently associated with seizure susceptibility in febrile children.

CONCLUSION

High neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio values and low prognostic nutritional index scores may serve as novel surrogate independent factors for seizure susceptibility in febrile children. Febrile children who are less than 18 months old are more prone to experience seizures than older febrile children. Moreover, there was a correlation between febrile seizures and elevated C-reactive protein levels and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio values.

Values of prognostic nutritional index for predicting Kawasaki disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the relationship between the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery lesion (CAL) in Kawasaki disease (KD).

Methods

The relevant literature was searched on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Google Scholar up to August 5, 2023. A pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and area under curve (AUC) were calculated to assess the predicted values of PNI in KD patients with IVIG resistance and CAL.

Results

A total of 8 articles containing 10 studies involving 7,047 participants were included. The pooled results revealed a pooled sensitivity of 0.44 (0.25-0.65), a pooled specificity of 0.87 (0.73-0.94), a pooled PLR of 3.4 (2.0-5.9), a pooled NLR of 0.65 (0.48-0.87), a pooled DOR of 5.26 (2.76-10.02), and a pooled AUC of 0.75 (0.71-0.78) in the diagnosis of KD with CAL. The pooled results suggested that a pooled sensitivity was 0.69 (0.60-0.77), specificity was 0.76 (0.69-0.82), PLR was 2.9 (2.1-4.1), NLR was 0.40 (0.29-0.56), DOR was 7.27 (3.89-13.59), and AUC was 0.79 (0.75-0.82) in the diagnosis of KD with IVIG resistance. The combined results revealed the pooled sensitivity was 0.63 (0.58-0.67), specificity was 0.82 (0.80-0.83), PLR was 3.09 (1.06-8.98), NLR was 0.38 (0.07-2.02), DOR was 8.23 (0.81-83.16) in differentiating KD from febrile patients. These findings demonstrated low sensitivity and relatively high specificity of PNI for KD, KD-CAL, and IVIG-resistant KD.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this study was the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic value of PNI in KD with IVIG resistance and CAL. The results suggested that PNI could be used as biomarkers for distinguish KD, KD with CAL, and KD with IVIG resistance.

Serum amyloid A as a biomarker for immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance is of prime importance in Kawasaki disease (KD). In this study, we examined the value and mechanism of serum amyloid A (SAA) level in predicting IVIG resistance in patients with KD.

METHODS

SAA levels were measured in 497 consecutive patients with KD before IVIG therapy in the training set. The patients were divided into two groups (IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant) according to the American Heart Association (AHA) definition of IVIG resistance. Demographic, echocardiographic, and laboratory data were also retrospectively analyzed and tabulated to predict IVIG resistance. The predictive value of SAA was validated on test sets of prospective data. Cytokine microarrays were analyzed from 4 patients with resistant to IVIG, 4 patients with responsive to IVIG and 4 healthy volunteers.

RESULTS

During the training set, 409 patients with KD were enrolled, of whom 43 (10.5%) were resistant to initial IVIG treatment and 47 (11.49%) had coronary artery lesions (CALs). Serum levels of SAA were higher in the IVIG resistant group compared to the IVIG responsive group, (380.00 [204.40-547.25] vs 230.85 [105.40-490.00] mg/L; p = .008). The values of total bilirubin, C-reactive protein, neutrophils, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, interleukin-6(IL-6), and procalcitonin were significantly higher in the IVIG-resistant group than in the IVIG-responsive group (p < .05); however, the lymphocytes, platelets, serum sodium levels, and duration of fever before IVIG therapy were significantly lower (p < .05). There was no significant difference in SAA levels between patients with KD with and without CALs. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that SAA (p = .008), neutrophils (p < .001), total bilirubin (p = .001), platelet count (p = .004), and serum sodium level (p = .019) were independent factors influencing IVIG resistance. The optimal cutoff value of SAA for IVIG resistance prediction was 252.45 mg/L, with a corresponding clinical sensitivity of 69.8% and specificity of 54.4%. Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, the area under the curve (AUC) of combined detection with these five indicators was 0.800, clinical sensitivity was 69.8%, and specificity was 76.2%. In the prospective data, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of SAA for identifying IVIG resistance KD were 77.8%,69.0%, and 70.0%, respectively. Compared with IVIG- responsive group and healthy children, the levels of IL-6 was upregulated significantly in IVIG-resistant group through cytokine microarrays.

CONCLUSIONS

SAA may be a potential biomarker for predicting IVIG responsiveness to KD, Combined detection of SAA levels, total bilirubin, neutrophil count, platelet count, and serum sodium levels is superior to that of any other single indicator for predicting IVIG resistance in KD. And elevated SAA may accompany with IL-6 in KD patients, its use in clinical practice may be helpful for treatment management.

Prognostic nutritional index value in the prognosis of Kawasaki disease with coronary artery lesions

Objectives

The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is a purported predictor of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) development in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). However, limited data exist on CAA regression. This study aimed to confirm whether the PNI is a predictor for CAA persistency in patients with KD.

Methods

This retrospective study grouped 341 patients with KD based on the coronary artery status and time of aneurysm persistence. The clinical and laboratory parameters were compared, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for persistent CAA. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was further used to assess the predictive values of the PNI in persistent CAA.

Results

Among the study patients, 80 (23.5%) presented with CAA, including CAA persisting for 2 years in 17 patients (5.0%). Patients with CAA were more frequently treated with corticosteroids (p < 0.016). No statistically significant differences were found in the nutritional status and PNI among patients with or without coronary artery lesions, regardless of injury severity. Patients in the persistent CAA group presented with higher rates of overnutrition and showed lower PNI values and a higher incidence of thrombosis than those in the normal group (p < 0.05). The PNI and the maximum Z-score at 1 month of onset were significantly associated with CAA persisting for 2 years and may be used as predictors of persistent CAA. The area under the ROC curve was 0.708 (95% confidence interval, 0.569-0.847), and a 40.2 PNI cutoff yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 41 and 92%, respectively, for predicting CAA persisting for 2 years. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the estimated median time of aneurysm persistence was significantly higher in patients with PNI values of ≤40 than in those with PNI values of >40 (hazard ratio, 2.958; 95% confidence interval, 1.601-5.464; p = 0.007). After sampling-time stratification, the PNI differed significantly between patients with and without persistent CAA when sampled on the second (p = 0.040), third (p = 0.028), and fourth days (p = 0.041) following disease onset.

Conclusion

A lower PNI value is an independent risk factor for CAA persisting for 2 years in patients with KD, besides the maximum Z-score at 1 month after onset. Furthermore, the PNI obtained within 4 days from fever onset may possess greater predictive power for patients with persistent CAA.

Evaluation of laboratory predictors for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance and coronary artery aneurysm in Kawasaki Disease before and after therapy

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) before and after therapy.

METHODS

Patients with KD were divided into different groups according to their responsiveness to initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment and coronary status. The clinical and laboratory parameters before and after therapy were compared. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to assess and compare the prediction ability of risk factors and their fluctuations.

RESULTS

Of the 153 patients included in the study, 41 (26.8%) had IVIG resistance and 37 (24.2%) had developed CAA. After stratifying by therapy response, the two groups differed in the levels of total bilirubin (TSB), albumin, and sodium, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte count ratio (PLR), TSB-to-albumin (B/A) ratio, and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) before IVIG, and in the white blood cell count (WBC), neutrophil count, levels of hemoglobin, C-reactive protein (CRP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and albumin, NLR, PNI, capillary leakage index (CLI), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) after IVIG. Multivariate analysis revealed that the B/A ratio before IVIG and CLI and SII after IVIG were significantly and positively associated with IVIG resistance and that there was a larger decline in the B/A ratio and smaller decline in CLI and SII pre- and post-treatment in the IVIG-resistant group than in the IVIG-responsive group. However, no statistical differences in the fluctuations of the B/A ratio, CLI, and SII as well as all parameters before and after therapy were observed in patients with and without CAA. ROC curve analyses found a greater AUC value of post-treatment parameters (0.751 and 0.706 for CLI and SII, respectively) compared with pre-treatment parameters (0.654 for B/A ratio) in predicting IVIG resistance; however, the predictive ability of the fluctuations in risk factors before and after therapy was not superior to that of baseline values.

CONCLUSIONS

The B/A ratio before IVIG and CLI and SII after IVIG were risk factors for IVIG resistance in patients with KD, independent of CAA development. Key Points • A high total bilirubin-to-albumin ratio before IVIG and high capillary leakage and systemic immune-inflammation indices after IVIG may indicate an increased risk of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in patients with Kawasaki disease. • Post-treatment parameters were superior to pre-treatment parameters in terms of prediction; therefore, rapid and repeated assessment of risk factors before and after treatment must be considered in children in whom the vital signs and symptoms do not improve after treatment.

Predicting immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: an assessment of neutrophil to lymphocyte platelet ratio

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile illness of unknown etiology and predictors for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance have been widely explored in recent decades. Neutrophil to lymphocyte platelet ratio (NLPR) was reported to be associated with the outcomes in many diseases. However, its relationship with IVIG resistance has not be explored.

METHODS

The medical data of patients diagnosed with KD in Children's Hospital of Soochow University between January 2019 and December 2020 were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Patients were trisected into three groups based on NLPR. Logistics regression was used to analyze the association between NLPR and IVIG resistance. Restricted cubic spine was used to exhibit the relationship. Sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis were also carried out.

RESULTS

A total of 803 patients were included in the present study (61.8% males; median age: 24 months). IVIG resistance occurred in 74 (9.2%) patients. Multivariable-adjusted analyses revealed higher NLPR (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.12 [1.00-1.24]) was an independent predictor of IVIG resistance, which was strengthened by sensitivity analyses. The association of NLPR and IVIG resistance was not modified by age, sex, CALs, or days of IVIG initiation ≤ 4.

CONCLUSION

NLPR may be a valuable prognostic marker in KD patients with IVIG resistance.